Random Things You May Not Have Known
Here are some interesting Mariner-related statistics that you may not have known. We’ll do it did you know style.
Did you know that Yuniesky Betancourt had 18 extra base hits in August? That was 55% of his hits for the month, and is the highest monthly total of XBH any Mariner hitter has had this year.
Did you know that the Mariners have seven pitchers on the roster with an ERA of 10.00 or higher in September? Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, Eric O’Flaherty, Brandon Morrow, Sean Green, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and John Parrish have formed their own arson squad.
Did you know that opposing hitters have a .331 batting average on balls in play against the Mariners in the second half? The only guys below .300 are J.J. Putz, Mark Lowe, and Sean White. Remember, BABIP is more about defense than pitching – the M’s defense has been killing them all year, but never is this more obvious than since the all-star break.
Did you know that the Mariners team ERA in games they lose is 7.21? Only Tampa Bay gives up more runs in losing efforts.
Did you know that opposing teams hit .347/.399/.515 against the Mariners in the first inning of ballgames? This is, by far, the worst in the American League. Hitters have only managed a .674 first inning OPS against Jarrod Washburn, but they’ve teed off on everyone else, especially Jeff Weaver.
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I didn’t know about the 18 XBH in August, but I did notice yesterday that Yuni has 16 more XBH than Ichiro this year.
I wonder what % of the total pitches thrown in first innings are fastballs…
Did you know that the other day the infield was manned by Burke, Beltre, Betancourt, Bloomquist & Broussard?
so, yuni has more XBH in august than he has walks for the year? yikes.
Dave–Pretty sad statis, but the phrase “they formed their own arson squad.” is priceless. Thankyou for adding humor.
Oh! Anyone else hear last night Bavasi was signed to an extension. Apparently sometime during the summer and it leaked out yesterday sometime. Super.
Dave, do you think Yuni’s extra base hitting is a fluke, or do you think it might be a sign that he could become a power-hitting shortstop?
I wonder if that horrid second half BABIP could be used to get people to understand the importance of fielding and how much poor fielding has hurt the Mariners (and how much great fielding helped them in the Cameron years, for that matter). It’s one of the biggest stories of the Mariner season, and the only one that has gone just about completely unremarked by the major media.
“especially Jeff Weaver”
This should be someone’s new nick…plus, you can follow almost any negative observation about the 2007 Mariners with that phrase and it will only make your point stronger.
Yes, Dave. Very telling statistics. That .331 BABIP tells me the M’s were also REALLY unlucky. Silver lining??
The only silver lining this year was that the Yankees were not going to make the playoffs.
Oh baseball, how cruel you can be.
Did you know that, in an amazing coincidence, two of the Mariners young Scouts Of The Year are named Jongewaard and Pelekoudas?
galexieboi – If you’re a pitcher posting an inflated BABIP you are probably unlucky.
If you’re a team with a high BABIP, your defence probably sucks.
Remember that commercial they ran in 2002 with the Mariners vs the 1907 Cubs?
Did you know that opposing teams hit .347/.399/.515 against the Mariners in the first inning of ballgames? This is, by far, the worst in the American League. Hitters have only managed a .674 first inning OPS against Jarrod Washburn, but they’ve teed off on everyone else, especially Jeff Weaver.
Establish the fastball. And the three-run deficit.
Is there any aspect of strategy or tactics where the M’s are good?
Colm – aren’t the pitchers the ones with the high BABIP? with the staff falling apart at the end of the year can’t help. i totally get your point and i agree the m’s defence has been…subpar, but league average BABIP is like .290 or something i thought. there’s seem to be some crappy luck there too. or, regression to the mean. the bullpen was SICK for the first half.
#13 – i think we’d all pretty much agree that our little sisters would make better tactical decisions than Mac. what we need is an objective opinion about strategy.
Maybe I’ve missed these discussions but [you missed those discussions]
“Did you know that the Mariners team ERA in games they lose is 7.21? Only Tampa Bay gives up more runs in losing efforts.”
This is really interesting to me. Why do you think that is? I’d hate to say that they just give up at some point. Thoughts??
They love Vidro, and believe that if they traded him to fill a gap, they’d just be opening another gap. No, they really think that.
Colm – after some more digging, i see your point more and more. i stand corrected.
Regarding the crazy BAIP numbers: What are the key culprits in this? Not all of the balls put into play can be hit just outside of the Raul’s range? 3rd, SS, 2nd (most of the time), CF are all pretty solid. I would think C, P, and 1st wouldn’t have too much of an effect on BAIP. So are we looking at LF and RF and their lack of range as the main reasons the BAIP are so high, or has it been more of collective defense slump?
- Why has Yuni, 3rd best BA on team and with good speed, never left the #9 batting spot?
No kidding. Maybe his crappy OBP? In Baseball Prospectus’ ‘Baseball Between the Numbers’ they found the most effecient lineup had OBP in decending order. Of course, I REALLY doubt Mac has read that book but Yuni does have almost 40 2Bs. Ichiro typically hits well below his career average with guys only at first, much better with runners in scoring position. I think I’m giving the M’s too much credit here…
galexie
Either you’ve got a lot of time on your hands today, or you’ve had too much coffee this morning.
Your mind is running 13 to the dozen.
#16 — 2R-S is being discussed as a starter for next year. That is why he will play winter ball. I still think he is a reliever, but if I am wrong, so much the better.
Colm – too much coffee. and i just found ussmariner a couple weeks ago so it’s pretty rad to talk baseball with other mariner fans who understand why griffey isn’t a viable trade option.
You wouldn’t be any wronger than the geniuses who thought Horacio Ramirez was a starter.
It’s funny how so many people cling to the idea that the Mariners defense is a strong point. From purely an analytical point of view, nothing could be farther from the truth. THT shows the team as 28th out 30 MLB teams in RZR and Baseball Prospectus has them as 28th in Defensive Efficiency. Two different measures with the same conclusion.
I few that the team management shares that delusion.
I meant to conclude that “I fear that the team management shares that delusion.”
another one i read last night on the website is that mclaren said THE KING has given up 15 hits on 0-2 counts…seems like too many…he should be striking out more…i wonder how many of the 15 hits were off fastballs?
#24. Good thing Junior isn’t still a viable trade option, ’cause he just strained another body part and…might…miss…the…rest…of…the…season…
My point with Griffey was my frustration with mariner fans who don’t grasp moving on or doing something different. That’s what excites me about ussmariner. This is a great discussion, if I brought up BABIP to most fans at a game I’d get a blank-ass stare.
26: I know that there are a lot of people who don’t think the Mariners’ fielding is a weakness, or who don’t think it’s important, but are there really a lot of people who think it’s a strength? My god.
Did you know that the other day the infield was manned by Burke, Beltre, Betancourt, Bloomquist & Broussard?
And Batista was on the mound, if I’m not mistaken… six like-lettered surnames… where’s the Elias Sports Bureau when you really need them? (Or Larry Stone?)
My doctor says my esophagus lining is in dire need of help. He asked, “What is going on, why the weak stomach?”
I said, “I throw up every time I hear someone say how great the Mariner’s defense is.”
He replies to me, “I know, isn’t Richie Sexson amazing over there at 1st Base?”
I have been asked to find a new specialist after puking all over my doctor.
#32– it was Putz … the game Batista was in, Lopez was on 2nd.
#34 — the box score (9/12) agrees with me.
I’d like to see Campillo with a shot at the rotation.
Slight sidebar on the subject of defence:
I’ve heard a lot, not least on this site, about how bright the future looks for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, as stacked as they are with young talent. But if I’m not mistaken, they are one of the two clubs (the other probably being the Marlins) who are worse defensively than our beloved M’s. How much is that going to hurt their potential to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox over the next few years?
With Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera clogging up the left side of the infield the Marlins’ woes look to be locked in for the near future.
When you say the M’s defense has been killing them all year, what do you mean? I’ve always thought the position was that Yuni/Beltre/Ichiro are awesome, Lopez/Guillen/Joh are average (or just slightly below), thus leaving the only true weak spots at whoever is playing 1B and Ibanez. Are those two positions costing them this bad or am I misreading other players?
#35– ooh, even better! I was looking at his last start….
“Did you know that the Mariners team ERA in games they lose is 7.21? Only Tampa Bay gives up more runs in losing efforts.â€
This is really interesting to me. Why do you think that is? I’d hate to say that they just give up at some point. Thoughts??
For much of the year, the M’s have run out Replacement-Level or worse pitchers for 40% of their rotation. The average Weaver or Ramirez start saw them exit the game after 5 IP with 4 runs already on the board. That left a lot of outs for the bullpen, especially middle relief. 7 runs under those conditions is doing good for the pen. Between the two of them, Weaver and Ramirez have left the game with more runs allowed than IPs 20 times.
It’s funny how so many people cling to the idea that the Mariners defense is a strong point. From purely an analytical point of view, nothing could be farther from the truth. THT shows the team as 28th out 30 MLB teams in RZR and Baseball Prospectus has them as 28th in Defensive Efficiency.
Earlier in the year, I was looking at various range ratings, and noticed the M’s infield was generally terrible. I was puzzled, because even Beltre and Betancourt were rated as having very poor range. That doesn’t square with what I witness with my own two lying eyes. I wonder if the pitchers are contributing to this, by giving up more hard hit balls than the zone ratings expect?
#37 – As TB swaps over to their younger talent, their defense will improve. It’ll probably never be even good, but it wont be this bad. Also, Miguel Cabrera isn’t long for the Marlins and probably Hanley Ramirez isn’t either.
#38 – If you go by Zone Rating + Out-Of-Zone plays (which isn’t great, but I don’t know off a better stat that’s easier to look up) you get Ichiro and Beltre are great and everyone else is below average with Ibanez and Sexson as two of the worst defenders in baseball at their position. Long story short, yes, Ibanez and Sexson have been that bad.
You know way more about the statistics than I do, but as a student in your class I would like to take issue with the statement that BABP is more about defense than pitching. I think BABIP measures the skill of the hitter in hitting the ball “where they ain’t.” This is why Ichior is such a great hitter. Did you ever watch John Olerud in batting practice? He would hit line drives in around the infield, one down the first base line, one between first and second, one up the middle, etc. This indicates to me that a major league hitter can hit a meatball wherever he wants. The reason Olerud couldn’t always hit it where he wanted in a game was because of the quality of the pitching. When Ramirez throws a meatball over the middle of the plate, a major league hitter can hit it where he is trying to more often than not.
There’s been a huge amount of research into that question, Rick, feel free to go check it out. Even Ichiro and other bat-control masters don’t manage a 1.000 average once they put a ball in play – defense makes some play on nearly every ball that’s hit, obviously.
#40 it’s possible, but I highly doubt it given that the BIP profile for the team (19%LD, 44%GB, 11%IF/FB) are pretty much dead on to AL average (18/44/10).
Did you know that Mariner players often have trouble passing through airport security because their copious team chemistry doesn’t fit into a 3 oz. bottle?
Tampa Bay has played a lot of players out of position or at new positions this year just to keep their bats in the lineup — Brendan Harris at SS, Ty Wigginton at 2B, BJ Upton at 2B and CF (his third and fourth new position in three years), etc. The Baldelli injury also forced them to play Delmon Young (a bad RF) and Elijah Dukes in CF.
Did you know that the other day the infield was manned by Burke, Beltre, Betancourt, Bloomquist & Broussard?
And Batista was on the mound, if I’m not mistaken
The Killer B’s! And what do they kill? Their fans! Their chances! All hope!
Yes, Dave. Very telling statistics. That .331 BABIP tells me the M’s were also REALLY unlucky.
Good teams make their own luck. Bad teams say they’ve been “REALLY unlucky.”
I wonder if that horrid second half BABIP could be used to get people to understand the importance of fielding and how much poor fielding has hurt the MarinersTo do that, you’d have to:
1. Explain what BABIP is
2. Explain that poor fielding is the cause of a bad team BABIP
3. Explain what BABIP is, again
4. Explain that defense can be measured, and that improving that can fix a bad team BABIP
5. Goto 1.
I know that there are a lot of people who don’t think the Mariners’ fielding is a weakness, or who don’t think it’s important, but are there really a lot of people who think it’s a strength? My god.As with many things, perception trails reality by quite a bit. People (usually, as long as it doesn’t conflict with some deeply-held belief) adjust their thinking fairly quickly when the facts are in their faces — ERA and offensive stats go up everywhere everyday, and even if you’re not paying attention to those you see the gamescores and, while watching a game, the opposing teams tee-ing off (and the M’s not). But defensive stats (to the extent they work) are a black hole to most fans, and people tend to remember the highlight defensive plays more than the errors (and both of them far more than the “just out of reach” plays that a better defensive team would’ve fielded). The great defensive plays are going to end up on the news and SportsCenter/BaseballTonight too. And you always give the good guys the benefit of the doubt. So if you’re a casual fan who formed the opinion (or just accepted the received wisdom) that “The M’s are a great defensive team” back in 2001 when it was actually true, you really have to have been paying attention to have adjusted that perception to the awful present reality.
47- didn’t they win that day?
42 – even crappy MLB pitchers don’t throw 60 mph BP fastballs.
But, but, but…HOW could that be? Our pitchers “establish the fastball” to start every single freaking game. This allows them to mix in their other pitches (if they last that long) and keep the hitters off-balance! And what about Richie Sexson at first and Raul Ibanez in left, otherwise known as “the human vacuum cleaners?” Huh? Huh? What about that? ‘sigh’
Our fielding sucks, but that’s not the only problem. Seattle’s HR rate is probably about league average when you adjust for Safeco, but their ERA+ is 89 – good for third worst in the league, and our BB/9 and K/9 are worse than league average. BABIP is not all luck and fielding either. Pitchers do have some control over BABIP.
So add fielding in there, and you have a terrible defensive club. The fact is, we should be below .500 right now, if not for a whole lot of luck. And it’s “unlucky†luck, because this year’s success will ensure that we extend the contracts of our idiot GM and manager and finish behind the Angels for at least the next 3-4 years.
ok, I felt compelled to ask the various mailbags/answerguys/Stark about the new killer Bs.
Of course, a problem with using BABIP to measure defense is that it doesn’t include batters who reach on errors. OBPBIP (the fraction of runners reaching base safely on balls hit into play) would be a more useful measure. I haven’t found the raw numbers to calculate this, but I noticed that the Rangers (the team with the most errors in the league) have 29 more errors than the Mariners. If you assume that 20 of these errors allowed a batter to reach safely (assuming the other 9 were either errors that allowed a runner to take an extra base, or dropped foul balls), and if you add these 20 errors to the number of hits minus homeruns allowed by each team (around 1300), the gap in BABIP between the M’s and Rangers would shrink by about .015. Not huge, but significant.
Oh! Anyone else hear last night Bavasi was signed to an extension. Apparently sometime during the summer and it leaked out yesterday sometime. Super.
He wasn’t signed to an extension – he had an automatic rollover in his contract that triggered several months ago. This isn’t a big deal and will have no real impact on his future. It just means that, if they decide to fire him, the M’s will make a few hundred thousand dollars less in profit next year. That’s it.
Dave, do you think Yuni’s extra base hitting is a fluke, or do you think it might be a sign that he could become a power-hitting shortstop?
He doesn’t have the swing to be a power hitting shortstop. I still think he is what he is, a .290/.330/.420 shortstop, which is certainly valuable, but there’s not much room for growth here.
That .331 BABIP tells me the M’s were also REALLY unlucky. Silver lining??
There was probably some bad luck/non-repeatable performances mixed in, but I’d say the bulk of that performance was bad defense.
I think BABIP measures the skill of the hitter in hitting the ball “where they ain’t.â€
Well, the hitter has more control over a batted ball than anyone else, but given a half season of an entire pitching staff, the skills of the hitters will be drawfed by the other factors, as most teams will face similarly strong offenses over that kind of sample size.
Basically, yes, a hitter does have some ability to influence BABIP, but when you’re talking about this kind of extended time period and a group of pitchers, variations from average are going to be more about the defense than the hitters.
Pitchers do have some control over BABIP.
Some, but not a ton. And, across the board, almost every Mariner pitcher is posting a higher BABIP than their personal career averages. Unless you believe the entire pitching staff degraded a nearly equal amount in their BABIP prevention skills, the logical conclusion is that the defense is terrible.
I haven’t found the raw numbers to calculate this, but I noticed that the Rangers (the team with the most errors in the league) have 29 more errors than the Mariners.
Data is here. The Mariners have made less errors than the average AL team – their high BABIP isn’t inflated by making too many errors.
is it more that various players aren’t even getting to the ball to potentially make that error?
#56 That’s what I’d read into it. Some kinda fielder range issues. Perhaps people are looking at errors and going, ‘oh, they’re not too bad!’. You could look at Yuni’s error total and go, ‘good god!!’.
#55 Yeah, I saw that in the paper a couple hours ago. I turned on KJR for a couple minutes on the way home (6:30pm) last night and heard “Bavasi” and “extension”. And then my heart sank. Sorry ’bout that.
The Mariners have made less errors than the average AL team – their high BABIP isn’t inflated by making too many errors.
Dave, my point was that BABIP does not include errors. A better BABIP-like team defense metric would include errors, to be precise those errors that result in a batter reaching base safely.
When a batter reaches base because of an error, it actually decreases the defensive team’s BABIP, which is counterintuitive if you consider BABIP a measure of team defense.
“Between the two of them, Weaver and Ramirez have left the game with more runs allowed than IPs 20 times.”
*chokes on lunch*
Just 5 years ago a good percentage of us here (myself included) thought ‘Gold Gloves’ and ‘Fielding Percentage’ were the be-all end-all of defensive measurement. How far we have come. Thanks again, USSMariner, for continuing to enlighten the local fanbase.
Fewer errors not less!
The Mariners are less-error prone (becuase one cannot count individual units of error-prone-ness) so they make fewer errors.
Either way, our defence is mediocre. Is anyone else watching the same Jose Guillen that I’m watching? I think he looks an utter horror in right field. He seems nearly as bad as Ibanez to my untrained eye.
Either way, our defence is mediocre.
Third worst in baseball is not mediocre. It’s terrible.
61 – Ditto on Guillen. His media “story” is that he’s fiery and tough, so his defensive miscues have gone unnoticed (by the media), as far as I can tell.
I was just being polite. You’re right, it’s garbage. I see black holes in either corner of the outfield. I see utter indifference at 1st (whether it’s Broussard or Sexson) and I see Yuni making too many errors – but Ichiro, and Betre are plusses, Lopez is not a horror and Yuni has the range to make up for his occasional lousy throws.
Is it all Ibanez and Guillen?
Here’s something you may not know. If you vote for Ken Griffey Junior in the Hank Aaron Award voting, it says he plays for the Seattle Mariners. They may be just a couple of years behind on that.
http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c158/JuFu/Griffey.jpg
/me is a total homer.
Where do you put Joh in terms of defense?
I don;t think it is indifference at first, just inability.
I wonder if Beltre is still as good as his reputation, other than on his specialty play of charging in to make the barehanded pickup on the third-base line. If defensive ability peaks earlier than hitting, he could already be past his prime. Not that he’s necessarily bad defensively, but maybe not that far from average overall.
Anyway, clearly we need a thorough dissection of team defense when we get to the season-in-review stage. I look forward to the more detailed analysis.
Did you know that Groz has leapt on the La Russa bandwagon with both feet and an arm or two?
What a wonderful squad we have – four regular starters (Vidro, Guillen, Sexson, Ibanez) that should be doing little more than DH duty. Way to build a ‘complete’ team.
68 – But Blowers says Beltre is the best he’s ever seen. You don’t think he would, uh, exaggerate for a home town player, do you…
I’m actually pretty impressed with Beltre, but I don’t get to see others play the position regularly, so it’s hard for me to judge. I sure enjoy watching him, though.
Dave — Kudos on the humorous “arson squad” reference. Maybe for the rest of the year, they could give those guys some helmets with the number “451″ on them — like the so-called “firemen” in Farenheit 451.
But then, they’d have to rename the bullpen “AREA 451″!
Perhaps a dumb question, but does zone rating take into account the size of the zone? Would a more spacious left and center field at home make Mariner zone ratings worse? Or are ballparks factored into zone ratings?
68 – WTF, do you watch the Mariners? Beltre is absolutely awesome defensively. Sure there are tons of relatively new defensive metrics, which seem to disagree with each other a lot, and some certainly seem a lot more valuable than others, so you could probably make an argument either way using those. But have you just watched him play day in and day out?
I believe errors ARE included in Defensive Efficiency, which is another place where the Mariners suck.
Besides, you have to GET to the ball to make an error on the play, not just wave at it as it goes into CF.
Also, if you look at FIP, the Mariners have about a league-average FIP … but are significantly below average in ERA (which means the defense REALLY sucks, because you’d expect that half the games at Safeco would DEPRESS runs allowed).
I have a feeling I know some of the content of Dave’s Offseason Plan for 2008 will be, based on all of this. There are ways to significantly improve the team that don’t involve handing out ridiculous contracts to Paul Byrd (or trading for Barry Zito).
>Did you know that the other day the infield was manned by >Burke, Beltre, Betancourt, Bloomquist & Broussard?
>And Batista was on the mound, if I’m not mistaken
Add in an outfield of Bibanez, Bichiro and Bouillen and it’d be historic.
Maybe Bidro at DH?
Balantien on the bench with Bones.
… managed (sic) by McBarren
and GM …
69 — I’m sure it’ll come up the next time he talks to Dave. That should be a fun listen
68 — Beltre has one of the best arms at 3rd I’ve ever seen. Certainly one of the best now playing. He throws strikes to 1st falling backwards into the dugout that are better than some 3rd basemen manage with set feet. He may not have quite the range off a dead start that some smaler guys have, but hia hands are quick so it’s good enough. UZR has always loved Beltre; to the extent you believe its ratings you can make the case he’s the second-best 3rd baseman now playing (after Rollen).
when asked by Niehaus yesterday to compare, Blowers said that he might have been able to match Adrian on a throw to 1st, but not his range or speed
Ahhhhh!! You guys are freakin’ me out!!
But have you just watched him play day in and day out?
Sounds like the arguments you hear from people defending Derek Jeter’s Gold Gloves.
Look, I did not say Beltre is bad defensively. I suggested he may already have peaked in that regard (he already peaked offensively too, but that’s another matter). It doesn’t mean third is a place we should look to upgrade, but it’s not going to compensate for deficiencies elsewhere in the field either.
#40 it’s possible, but I highly doubt it given that the BIP profile for the team (19%LD, 44%GB, 11%IF/FB) are pretty much dead on to AL average (18/44/10).
Thanks Matthew, good info. Your comment in #41 about Out-Of-Zone plays reminded me that the earlier numbers I was looking at (that had Beltre below average) didn’t include Out-of-zone plays, and I believe there was a discussion here a while back about how much OOZ adds to Beltre’s defensive value (possibly Betancourt’s too).
Ok, my hypothesis is shot down, the M’s pitchers are not to blame for the lousy defense. The lousy pitching on the other hand…
66 – Johjima’s 37% CS rate is AL 3rd best, behind Mauer (best since a young I-Rod) and Laird. He’s been charged with one error all year. His WP+PB/G average is .360, fifth best. He’s a tremendous asset, and extremely underrated. I think I heard more great things about Dan Wilson in a month than I do about Johjima.
#84 – A catchers defensive value is inverse to his offensive abilities, right? I heard that somewhere. Maybe if he batted .260 with 7HRs people would talk about his glove.
82 – Well if all you meant is he may have peaked, I misunderstood. It is possible he is at the top of his game right now, but I think that is a very high top.
But please don’t compare this to the Jeter Gold Gloves. I make the assumption most people around this site have a better grasp of defensive skills than the average Yankee fan. If you watch Jeter play day in and day out, you see a lot of diving stops and spinning throws, BECAUSE he has poor range and isn’t the quickest first step in the game. (Correspondingly you also see some grounders you know Yuni would have gotten to that nobody even thinks about because he doesn’t get a glove on them.) And as I said I give the benefit of the doubt on this site that most readers realize this.
If you watch Beltre play day in and day out, you see basically every single play you would expect any third baseman to make, and it looks easy. Then you see a fairly large # of really great plays, like that hard line drive yesterday he was falling away from. His instincts are amazing and that arm is possibly without compare, as someone else just pointed out he throws it harder than most guys while he’s falling backwards. If Beltre hasn’t saved us 20 runs this year I’d be amazed, although I will admit I don’t have that data right in front of me.
BPro has Beltre as -1 below an average thirdbaseman, but +10 over a replacement level. I tend to not agree with their FRAA and FRAR numbers (they say Betancourt is awful and Sexson is awesome), but it’s something. My feeling is defence has got to be the hardest thing to measure. It’s so subjective. Do you fault Yuni because he has great range but drops the ball and not Jeter who can’t move to his left to save his life?
I’m not sure Beltre has peaked offensively. He’s 28 and his numbers have been trending upward for 3 years.
I’m not sure Beltre has peaked offensively. He’s 28 and his numbers have been trending upward for 3 years.
The recent trend may be upward, but he will almost certainly never have another 2004. That was the peak.
Third worst in baseball is not mediocre. It’s terrible.
Given that you’ve got Beltre, Betancourt, Lopez, and Ichiro all as “not awful,” I guess that says quite a bit about how bad the rest of the guys are.
Looking over the stats at Hardball times, the Mariner pourous defense is primarily due to two positions – left field and first base. This could have easily been addressed by putting Jones in left and Ibanez at first – would have improved the offense tremendously as well.
Someone in Mariner management should be held responsible for such mismangement of assets. Oh, sure. Dream on.
84 and 85 – Thanks for the Joh comments. I’ve seen his numbers and I watch and I’m impressed, but he often gets left out of discussions either way (and I hear the Dan Wilson stuff, too).
Yeah, defensive ability seems to be a reputation thing. Andruw Jones still gets all kinds of love even though watching him play and his stats have shown a fairly substancial decline. Once you’re in, you’re in.
David Gassko’s August 27 article on The Hardball Times best fits my impression of the Mariner defense. He analyzed zone rating data to arrive at Fielding Runs Above Average.
As a team they were +8 FRAA, or about 12th in MLB as I remember.
But Ichiro was +36, best at any postion in MLB! So the rest of the team was well below average.
Sexson -13
Ibanez -9
Yuni -11
Beltre +4
Lopez +3
All others within +/-2 of average.
A recurring theme in most all statistical evaluations is that Yuni is not the defensive wizard he appears to be. Basically another Derek Jeter in the field.
If you buy that, then the Mariners aren’t as well set at SS as they think.
I’m not sure I can buy Betancourt as a worse defender at his position than Ibanez.
I wonder if maybe there’s something in the formula that over-exaggerates some of his throwing errors; his speed and reaction just from watching games seems to be good to excellent.
Watching him play, I have a really hard time buying that Yuni is average (or worse!) with the glove. I will buy that to the ratings systems, his errors this year have offset the great plays he makes.
#95 I’m not sure, but it’d probably help his ratings to have a 1b could pick it a little better. Looking at THT RZR Sexson is last at .655. Second to last is Konerko at .696. That sucks. I still stand by that defensive metrics are still in their infancy at this point.
You can count me as one who is not a big fan of Yuni on defense. His range has been drastically overrated. When he does get the ball into his mitt he looks smooth doing it, but Carlos Guillen during his time here played a much better SS.
As for Johjima, my one complaint with his defense is that he gives a poor target. He often sets up while a pitcher is in his windup. From a basic ocular standpoint it is never good to create motion in the sight line of the pitcher. If he would set up sooner I would feel very good about his defense.
#80 “when asked by Niehaus yesterday to compare, Blowers said that he might have been able to match Adrian on a throw to 1st, but not his range or speed”
Blowers said that? About himself? He’s gone crackers.
Beltre’s ability to consistently throw lasers from his knees or falling backwards is the thing I find the most impressive about his defense.
I don’t remember that from Blowers. Not like Beltre. I’d be more likely to believe the range or speed, frankly.
Then again, those years are a little fuzzy, for a variety of pleasant reasons. So maybe I’m the one that’s crackers.
FWIW, after seeing a lot more teams play this year (thanks MLBTV), I think that I overrated Yuni quite a bit. I wouldn’t rate his arm, range, hands, or consistency among the elite for shortstops.
All I remember hearing about Yuni when he came up was his spectacular defence from the announcers. That he was a guy if he hit .260 he’s helping the team. Now, it seems in truth he’s gonna have to hit .290 with 40 2Bs to help. He is a lot of fun to watch though.
98 – I know the framing issue has been around since he’s been here. What do you think of his game calling?
Johjima’s 37% CS rate is AL 3rd best, behind Mauer (best since a young I-Rod) and Laird. He’s been charged with one error all year. His WP+PB/G average is .360, fifth best. He’s a tremendous asset, and extremely underrated. I think I heard more great things about Dan Wilson in a month than I do about Johjima.
Johjima also gets a bad rap (with varying degrees of unjustness) for “not framing pitches” and for “stabbing at the ball.” A few commentators also seem convinced he doesn’t call games at all and gets all his direction from the dugout (I am hesitant to ascribe motives in the absence of facts, but cynic that I am I have a dark suspicion that these assertions — which are contrary to provable facts — arise from xenophobia at best and very possibly from something far worse).
WRT Jeter and eyeball evaluations — we’ve been over this before but I think people can be fooled by what we might call an aesthetic sense of how we expect an athlete to play. Jeter is undeniably graceful, and that makes people think he’s a better player than he is (conversely, players with jerky motions may be underrated). In the same way people unconsciously ascribe more competence to the good-looking (and good-looking people are more likely to get hired and earn more and get promoted faster than others) they presume that a smooth defender is automatically better, and more rangey, than a less-smooth one. (And aside from his motion, a lot of people think Jeter is good-looking, so he’s got that going for him too. Which is nice).
I suppose as ball and player tracking gets better, we may one day get to the point where we know exactly the vector of the ball coming off the bat, and the exact starting position of every defender at that moment, and from the resulting time-and-motion results (exactly when the defender gloves the ball, his vector of motion at that moment, and when the resulting throw gets to first — factoring in double-pumps for slow runners and pokey 1st basemen) determine exactly how good each defender actually is vs his peers. (We’d also want to add a dimension for “smarts” or “anticipation” — based on that initial positioning of the defender — but we would need to know when the defensive alignment has been specified from the dugout and when it is in the hands of the players). PitchFX is just the beginning; DefenseFX — that’s the new frontier.
I think Betancourt was probably originally somewhat overrated based on slick early play. My opinion of him has been revised to moderately above average.
But I still don’t buy that he is worse positionally than Ibanez and nearly as bad positionally as Sexson, so there has to be something weird in that THT metric that was quoted.
#99 – Then again, those years are a little fuzzy, for a variety of pleasant reasons. So maybe I’m the one that’s crackers.
They may be for Blowers, too, possibly for some of the same reasons.
Does anyone have Yuni’s error splits by month this year? I looked around at si/espn/sportsline/THT and was unable to find them. Seems like he was throwing the ball away a lot early on and has come back to nbormal the last few months but I can’t find the numbers to prove it.
Dave style quick-hits
-BPro’s Rate stats are worse than bad. I wouldn’t ever even mention them if you want to be taken seriously.
-Beltre is awesome.
-Yuni hasn’t made a high # of OOZ plays.
-Johjima is much improved over ’06 defensively.
-Lots of Yankee fans know Jeter’s defense is bad.
-Sexson sucks because he has no range, not because of his “picking” ability.
-Yuni has good arm strength.
-Yuni was almost certainly overrated amongst the Ms faithful, but he’s not 11 plays/runs below an average SS. He does muff some simple plays now and then, but his throwing errors seem behind him and he does have above average range and turns a great DP.
#89: That Big 2004 is more apt to be called an ‘outlier’ than a peak. His peak is more in like with his last 3 years than that one huge year. ergo the phrase “career year” and not “peak year.”
Blowers wasn’t claiming to do that, just that from 3rd to 1st he’d had a strong throw. His whole point was just how good Beltre was.
w/r/t Johjima game calling: I don’t remember anyone ever asserting that all the pitches were called from the dugout, but I certainly have noted that – especially in his first year – he sometimes did look to the dugout, apparently getting pitch signals from Bavasi.
This wasn’t with runners on, either, when you might think it was “pitchout/no pitchout” type signals.
Re: RZR and Betancourt
Then number of balls-in-zone for Betancourt is really not all that large in the RZR methodology–just 390. Yuni made plays on 311 of those balls-in-zone, giving him a .797 RZR. Consider that if he had made five more plays, he’d have a .810 RZR (moving up to 3rd on the list), and if he had made five fewer plays, he’d have a .784 RZR (moving down to 3rd-worst on the list.)
It seems like this really isn’t enough data to meaningfully differentiate the SS from one another–you’d definitely need to do something like average over three seasons and probably apply a park factor, too.
Having said that, I don’t think Yuni’s anything special out there. He’s got a cannon arm which can be inaccurate, and his footwork seems a bit ‘meh’ at times where he’ll seemingly make the play harder than it needs to be. Probably above average overall, given his tools, but not by a whole lot in my estimation. (There also seem to be a lot of SS in the AL right now who are out there solely for their glove, which would make Yuni’s impact a little bit smaller when we’re comparing DER amongst AL teams.)
Bavasi was calling pitches from the dugout? Man, that puts an entirely new spin on this team.
If he was in the dugout he has to be in uniform, right? That’s what Francona got crap for earlier this season….
Maybe they could use him like Buhner in the commercials, employing his head like a mirror to blind opposing pitchers.
Doh. You know what I meant.
Of course. But this way was far more entertaining.
Did you know that BRETT TOMKO won tonight? (Dave, I believe that you advocated signing him.)
And JASON ELLLISON pinch-hit a homer?
Since when does Ellison earn extra L’s for good play?
43. No, because the pitching makes it hard to hit the ball where you want it. That was my point.