Off Day Reflection Columns
Since the Mariners didn’t play yesterday, the local dailies all wrote an end-of-season retrospective, with Geoff Baker, Larry Stone, John Hickey, and Larry LaRue all tackling different angles, some with better success than others. If you only have time to read one, read Stone’s, as it is typical of his work – smart, well written, engaging, and the best thing published on the day he submits a column.
Here’s a few highlights from the other three, with a little commentary sprinkled in just for fun.
Hickey:
But before the Mariners get too discouraged, there just might be at least one hidden gem out there. And not a No. 3 guy, either, but a No. 1.
How about Zito?
The Giants offered him $126 million and seven years 10 months ago compared to the six years and $99 million the Mariners offered. Yes he had a bad year. But he’s always been able to pitch in the American League West. And the Giants, who just unloaded Barry Bonds, are going to be rebuilding for a while.
To take on his contract, Seattle would be on the hook for $116 million over six years. But if the Giants can’t compete short-term, it might be worth it to cough up some money to get the Mariners’ obligation closer to the $99 million they offered just to unload Zito’s monster contract. And the Giants could get some young talent they need in exchange.
Congratulations, John – the offseason hasn’t even started yet and you win the award for Worst Idea Of The Winter. The Barry Zito contract is one of the three or four worst in baseball history. The idea that Barry Zito is a #1 starter is ridiculously laughable. You can’t even defend the idea that he’s a #3 starter anymore. He’s an innings-sponge, a back-end starter that is marginally better than Jarrod Washburn. Even if you don’t want to use all these new-fangled performance metrics like “walks” and “strikeouts”, we could point you to his 4.63 ERA – you know, the one that is 3% below league average for a guy pitching half his games in a pretty severe pitchers park.
You don’t have to be any kind of statnerd to know that Barry Zito’s not a particularly good pitcher. That John Hickey is still clinging to this myth is just remarkable.
But, not to let Hickey wallow alone in ridiculous statement land, we get Larry LaRue chipping in with this:
Four seasons into his tenure as GM, Bavasi has improved the team’s record in each of the past three seasons, taking one of the older big-league rosters and turning it into the youngest roster in the major leagues.
Uhh, what? The youngest roster in the major leagues? Where on earth did he get that idea? Baseball-Reference lists average age for each team, sorted by both batters and pitchers, and, well, this isn’t particularly hard to research.
The Mariners hitters have a weighted average age of 29.9, good for 10th in the American League. The only teams with an older offense than Seattle are Boston, Baltimore, Toronto, New York, and Detroit. The average of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays hitters was four years younger than their Seattle counterparts.
Maybe LaRue meant the pitching staff?
Umm, no. The Mariners pitchers averaged 28.1 years of age, ranking 9th in the American League. The Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles all maintained their older-than-Seattle perch and were joined by the Angels and Indians. But every other AL team had a younger pitching staff.
How did this get written, or better yet, get past an editor? How do you watch the team all year, especially when they played a series against Tampa Bay so recently, and somehow come away with the impression that the Mariners have the youngest team in the majors?
LaRue continues on with these statements:
When Sexson was placed on waivers last month, 29 major league teams had the chance to claim him. Not one did.
This goes against numerous published reports stating exactly the opposite, as well as what I’ve been told personally. I’m pretty sure LaRue is wrong about this.
The outfield will bring back Raul Ibañez, Ichiro Suzuki and Adam Jones, and the team has a $9 million option on Guillen, whose strong presence on the field and off was an unexpected bonus.
And, of course, he totally whiffs on the fact that Guillen’s option is mutual, meaning he can void it and become a free agent. The Mariners can’t bring him back for $9 million next year – he’ll test the market if the Mariners don’t give him a multiyear deal.
Not a good effort by LaRue this morning.
And, remember yesterday’s veteran entitlement post? Well, Raul Ibanez offers up exhibit 8,432 in Baker’s article:
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,” he said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.”
That’s right, team – don’t even think about platooning Raul Ibanez and his complete inability to hit lefties. He wants to play everyday, and preferably hit cleanup, where he can continue hitting like a middle infielder against southpaws. Don’t you dare disrespect Raul Ibanez by putting the best team on the field and giving the team the best chance to win. If it comes at the expense of his playing time, he’s not interested.
Don’t you love veterans?
One alternative is to trade Vidro while his numbers are high. Vidro is owed $6 million by the Mariners in 2008, which isn’t bad for a .300 hitter steady from both sides of the plate.
The problem is, Vidro can’t play the field often.
I find it somewhat ironic that, when the topic of trading Vidro is broached, the fact that he’s an immobile tub of goo who can’t run or field is a problem that every other team will recognize, but as long as he’s a Mariner, he’s a huge asset.
And, in a little sidebar, Baker offers up some offseason roster suggestions, including:
1. Trade for Brad Penny – giving up Brandon Morrow and unspecified other players. Penny is a solid pitcher – not nearly as good as his ERA would suggest, mind you, but still above average – but it’s unclear why the Dodgers would be looking to move him this winter, and they’d be unlikely to have any interest in the Mariners two best trade chips (Balentien and Clement), as they already have young established major leaguers at C/RF/LF. It’s something worth exploring, but I’m not sure it makes as much sense as Geoff does.
2. Sign Mark Loretta for $2.5 million. Loretta’s not a terrible player, and I’m fine with the idea of bringing in another infielder to give Jose Lopez some competition for the job, but I wonder if people realize that Loretta was disastrously bad in the second half of the year? If we’re told to believe that Jose Vidro’s second half surge was legit, why are we supposed to ignore the fact that Loretta hit .250/.301/.321 and that he’s turned into a pretty bad defensive player heading into his age 36 season.
Overall, Baker’s offseason makeover involves very minor changes – Penny replaces Weaver in the rotation, Jones takes over right field, Guillen moves to left, Ibanez goes to 1st base, and Sexson goes away.
Is that team better than this year’s version? Yea, probably. Is it good enough to beat the Angels next year? I doubt it. This isn’t a roster that is one player away from winning the world series. If the M’s are serious about building a perenniel contender, they’ll have to do more than this.
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Stone nails it.
$106 Million spent and you have more questions than answers? $106 Million spent and people are more surprised you hung in there as long as you did? $106 Million and you have as more young cheap players providing significant bang than you do overpaid veterans?
You have to question how this team was put together and point some fingers at the front office. I guess the next steps taken by Lincoln will show whether he felt Bavasi is a victim of bad luck in the market or whether he doesn’t have what it takes to put together a winner.
There seemed to be a lot of talk about Guillen signing back up. It has all but vanished, is he going to test the market instead?
Hickey’s living five years in the past?
LaRue can’t get his facts straight?
Baker contradicts himself?
*LL shocked face*
Do we really want to push our luck with Guillen? Seems to me we got away with him behaving for a year.
Why put Guillen in LF? Honestly, do these writers even follow baseball?
I loved Guillen this year, and I’d gladly take him for a two-year deal. He was a productive RH bat who didn’t shrink at the prospect of hitting at Safeco.
Oh, and I’m shocked that so many writers and fans seem to think Morrow is gonna jump right into the rotation next year. Same goes for Feierabend. He’s hardly 22 and needs another year (along with Morrow and RRS) in the rotation in Tacoma. Put Baek in the number 5 spot, I’d think he’d be fine there. His K/BB is 47/14 (in 67 IP) in the big leagues this year speaks well to some future success.
Dave – I mostly don’t agree with Baker’s logic anymore. I know you defend him for at least putting together a well thought out argument, but can this really be said anymore? And can it really be used as an excuse to mask being flat out wrong?
Guillen in left? Really? He can field in enough in right to justify a roster spot if he hits, but left? Your most mobile outfielder not named Ichiro wasting away in right, and a guy with leg issues in a park that has a huge left-center in left? The only way Guillen in left is ok with me is if Ichiro demands going back to right, and AJ is in center.
Besides the fact that the Mariners found a useful scrap on the heap in Jose Guillen this year. Paying him significantly more to expect the same performance next year is a joke.
I too was a little puzzled with the Penny addition. From a results/veteran oriented perspective (which LA clearly has) Penny has been their ace. I don’t understand why Baker thinks they’d be rushing to deal him.
Dave, you quote Ibanez’s quote abobe:
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,†he said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.â€
I don’t get why that’s a big deal. Does anyone in the Mariners dugout NOT want to see their name in the lineup every day? How many major leaguers ever say “I’d like to sit three times a week to get the kids some at-bats?”
Then there’s this gem from Baker:
Green and O’Flaherty excelled before the team’s late-August collapse, and appear destined for bullpen jobs next year. There is a feeling they will improve now that their arms have endured an entire season and experienced September pressure.
This is one of Baker’s pet arguments, and why he advocated getting Al Reyes, Eric Gagne, or Octavio Dotel. The young guys aren’t good enough because they’ve never experienced “September pressure.”
Bull squeeze…
#10 – I kind of agree. Depends upon the context I guess. Do veteran players ever say, ‘I’ll sit to get the rook some playing time’? I do believe Raul has no business hitting against lefties OR playing the field anymore. But if he can rake against righties then he can DH as far as I’m concerned next year.
And maybe I’m nitpicking, but this particular passage pisses me off:
Assuming Class AAA call-up Adam Jones lands a starting outfield job…
For one thing, why the need to call the fourth-best player in the organization a “Class AAA call-up”?
And second, do we really have to “assume” that Jones will be starting in the OF next year?
maybe Loretta was so bummed when he didn’t get traded to the M’s in July that he just collapsed.
and, hey, if Manny & Barry can play LF, why not Guillen?
Dave’s last point needs to be inserted into every discussion about Mariners 2008. The team is not one player away from being a contender. It’s one reason why signing a top quality free agent pitcher (if one is available) to a 5 year / $100 million contract is a bad idea.
and, hey, if Manny & Barry can play LF, why not Guillen?
Heck – why not just keep Raul happy and put him in LF everyday? I mean, he can’t be as bad as Manny or Barry, right?
I was interested to hear Drayer say the other day that she thought that Guillen (with the Byrnes contract now out there) may be too expensive for the Ms, based on what they think they will get from him.
FWIW, she seems to have no doubts that Adam is in the outfield next season.
13 (Honcho) – Unfortunately, yes. Signs seem to point towards AJ getting the job next year, but this is the Mariners. You should basically always assume anything except:
1) Ichiro will lead off.
2) Yuniesky Betancourt will swing at almost every pitch he sees.
3) Richie Sexson will strike out. A lot.
4) The Moose will finish the job on Coco Crisp, and drag him into the wilderness for other flea infested moose to feed on.
Joking aside, you don’t really know what will happen with AJ. He could have an bad winter ball (which of course won’t be due to fatigue, but his lack of ability, right?), an average spring, and a Jose Guillen extension.
I refuse to start counting my chickens with this team until the end of spring training.
Like Bermanator, I thought calling the quote from Raul another example of “veteran entitlement” was a stretch. He said nothing even vaguely Kent-eque. I think it is good that Raul still has the fire to want to play every day (I think part of his resurgence was due to that being challenged, and that particular attitude in reacting to that challenge), and he also said the right things team-wise (“I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me”). If you want to nit-pick, there’s a slight implication that he’ll be pissed if he doesn’t play everyday, but right next to an acknowledgement that he doesn’t control that, and no indication whatsoever that he’ll be anything but professional about it if he isn’t an everyday guy. I see nothing wrong with what he said…..
#14 Well, Manny is usually terrible, but LF in Fenway is not LF at Safeco. And this year Bonds’ and Guillen’s FRAA and FRAR are pretty much the same:
FRAR FRAA RZR
Guillen -2 -13 857
Bonds -3 -10 830
Guillen has been all over the map fielding-wise too, whereas Bonds has been slowly getting worse.
joke.
Of course, I meant NEVER assume anything except….
Mike Honcho wrote:
First, Adam Jones has a gun of an arm, which some see as more of an asset in RF than LF (though personally, I think they ignore how expansive LF is and the value of having young, speedier legs there). I realize Guillen also has a reputation for having a strong arm, but he also was coming off surgery this past season and maybe the consensus is his arm isn’t what it once was. Second, before coming up, Jones hadn’t played LF at all, ever. He may well be more comfortable in RF. Not saying I agree with it, just that might be the thinking.
Sorry, I lost the nuance of the question.
24 – you are correct, “they” do ignore how expansive LF is in Safeco. Don’t fall into the same trap.
Now, I may be wrong on this, but the M’s would likely prevent more runs if they put AJ in LF and Guillen in RF, rather than the other way around.
Arm strength really isn’t as important as you think.
Excuse me – my response was to #23…
23 – Whave an entire years worth of evidence to show Guillen still has a strong enough arm for right, if you insist on using that as your benchmark for where to play a guy. Also, its not like AJ’s arm is 10 times stronger. No where near enough to justify sacraficing speed and range in left.
Barry Zito has a full no-trade clause, so there goes that brilliant idea……
#28- Wow, sucks to be the Giants. Oi.
I’m with Carson – I don’t think we can discount the possibility of Adam Jones not starting next year, or even being traded, for that matter. In fact, I can totally see us picking up a first baseman in the offseason, which would be doom for his playing time. You think with the way Vidro and Ibanez finished the year that the M’s will bench them? Haven’t we learned not to put any act of stupidity beyond this management team?
Anyone who has kept reasonably up-to-date with baseball’s advances in the last 10 years AND is still a Seattle fan has quite a bit of masochist in him.
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,” he said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.”
Jamie Burke would say the same thing . . . well, you know, if someone bothered to ask him.
The point here is not that Ibanez said he wants to play everyday, it is that management will unduly rely on his statement as a basis for playing Ibanez everyday. Better teams will simply ignore such statements made by their players and decide lineups based on playing the best players, veterans’ feelings be damned.
#26/Mike (who wrote “don’t fall into the same trap”): I said I didn’t necessarily agree with the thinking. I would rather have Guillen in RF and Jones in LF, precisely because I think that alignment has the best chance to prevent the most runs. I was only answering the question implied – who in their right mind (and on what possible justification), would consider putting Jones in RF and Guillen in LF? You (and I) might not like the answer, but I believe that is the thinking of those who would make such a move.
Manzanillos Cup said:
Anyone who has kept reasonably up-to-date with baseball’s advances in the last 10 years AND is still a Seattle fan has quite a bit of masochist in him.
OUCH! but I realize I resemble that remark.
31-
Of course, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume that Ibanez would rather play well than have the team win, which is what Dave is explicitly saying here.
I’m sure Ibanez feels that the team has the best chance of winning if he plays every day, and I bet that pretty much every player on the roster and half of the guys in AAA feel the same way.
(in post 34, I mean “about themselves.” No idea what they all think about Ibanez.)
Manzanillos – Haha. That stings, but oh how we continue to come back for more.
Bonds isn’t a terrible fielder. Ibanez is.
Manny has, I think, the physical skills to play LF competently.* Ibanez doesn’t.
*that’s right, I think Manny plays a lousy LF because he doesn’t particularly care about fielding, not because he’s not good at it.
I think we agree that Raul’s bat still has a place in the line-up, but his glove has no business in the field.
Are left and right fields THAT different? The argument I’d make to move Adam to RF is that he’s going to get better at fielding, where Guillen won’t. Adam’s arm will get stronger and more accurate, Guillen- probably not.
Speaking of arms. Some guys on baseballthinkfactory.com were going on and on yesterday about how Melky Cabrera of the Yanks has the best centerfield arm in baseball. Apparently he gunned someone down at home (who on replay appeared safe) and that settled that.
LF and RF in Safeco are pretty different.
I’ve seen this assertion made before about Vidro, and I want to know what the hell it’s supposed to mean. “Steady”? He was probably the streakiest hitter on the team. He’s a singles hitter, so that’s normal, but come on, he is anything but steady.
Hickey’s age hallucination is truely hilarious; it may seem particularly so to me because I happened to look up ages at B-R last night for the “Vetran Entitlement” thread to show that Derek Lowe’s assertion that “historically teams with a lot of young players don’t win championships right away,†was false, at least as far as the Dodgers are concerned, because 4 of the past 5 WS champions were younger than the Dodgers are now.
Here’s my theory for Hickey’s otherwise-inexplicable comment: rather than adding up ages (“math is hard”) or looking to B-R (“Wouldn’t it be cool if somebody did the work and put the data out there for me to look up on the computer? -sigh- Maybe someday”) he just looked in the dugout during a game last week and guessed. Of course the M’s were in the field at the time, so the dugout held only Felix, Morse, Balentien, Jones, Clement, and Johnson.
I must be missing something.
LF foul pole – 331ft
LF power alley – 390ft
CF – 405ft
RF power alley – 386ft
RF foul pole – 326ft
Nevermind that the wall at the leftfield foul pole is almost twice as tall as the rest of the wall. If LF was that bad wouldn’t they have put Ichiro over there and not Randy Winn? Also, it seems most of the ‘gap hits’ are to right/center.
that’s right, I think Manny plays a lousy LF because he doesn’t particularly care about fielding, not because he’s not good at it.
Sometimes I wonder if he’s worried a bit in the back of his mind about aggravating his hammy when he’s running around in the field. Watching him in the field and watching him at the plate, though, it’s pretty easy to get the impression that he’s a lot more focused when he is hitting.
Oops, I see that the age hallucination was LaRue. Sorry, hard to keep these ridiculous-assertions-by-local-sportswriters-I-don’t-read straight.
The problem is, Vidro can’t play the field often.
I think this may be the first time I’ve seen “often” used as a synonym for “at all.”
As an aside, average age isn’t really telling for these arguments anyway. You should somehow factor in how many games (or innings) players actually play in. In other words, Adam Jones’ lack of playing time means his “youngness” contribution shouldn’t be counted as much.
Also, two 24-year-olds and a Jamie Moyer average out to over 30 years old.
BR’s stat is too simple.
I stopped reading Hickey a few years ago when i found out it was causing mental dysentery. But reading the link from above i noticed another Hickey jewel as a previous blog about the Vlad vs. Campillo incident. He actually thinks a four game suspension was unwarrented because Campillo ‘missed’ Vlad?!?!?!
As an aside, average age isn’t really telling for these arguments anyway. You should somehow factor in how many games (or innings) players actually play in. In other words, Adam Jones’ lack of playing time means his “youngness†contribution shouldn’t be counted as much.
Also, two 24-year-olds and a Jamie Moyer average out to over 30 years old.
BR’s stat is too simple.
You, sir, have not read Baseball-Reference’s glossary describing how they determine average age.
galaxieboi -
I’m not enough of a math whiz to figure out the extra area you get from 5 more feet at the LF pole, more or less all the way through the LF power alley, but it is significantly more room. Not to mention, the higher fence area where the hand-operated scoreboard is adds a dimension not seen in RF.
But all of this pales in comparison to the way a batted ball behaves when hit to left (seems to hang, fights the wind) as opposed to right (catches the wind, seems to have much more of a chance to get out), which makes for more chances, and probably tougher chances, in LF.
That batted balls hit to RF and LF do, in fact, behave differently is borne out by the different “home run park factors” for RF to RCF (131 for RF, 5th most hitter-friendly in baseball; 115 for RCF, 11th most hitter-friendly in baseball) as opposed to LF (94, 2nd toughest hitter’s LF in baseball) to LCF (89, 3rd toughest) to CF (64, 12th toughest). This is before you account for wind and temperature. Lower temperatures make a ballpark more difficult to hit it, and Safeco’s avergage temp of 67.1 is the third lowest in baseball (and it tends to be windy, usually blowing out to right, which also will depress HRPF for LF, LCF, and CF to some extent).
See:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/
*Thanks to LL “Dispelling Myths” series for calling this to my attention.
It isn’t a stretch to see that because there is significantly more area in LF, and HRPFs tell us far more balls hit that way stay in the park, there will be more and tougher chances for a LF, and more speed and athletic ability required to adequately patrol LF that RF. This is a big reason (though certainly not the only reason) it made so much sense to move Ichiro from RF to CF, for instance.
I believe Dave has written on this subject, if you care to search the archive.
Oh, and the reason they didn’t put Ichiro in LF instead of Randy Winn is because Randy Winn had the speed and athleticism to play LF, but not the arm to play RF. And they didn’t (then) have the need to move Ichiro to CF, because Mike Cameron (in his prime) was patrolling there.
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,†[Ibanez] said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.â€
Fine, Raul, as long as you’re not hiding an injury that makes you punchless at the plate like you did for the entire first half this year. If you’re healthy and hitting, you deserve to be in the lineup on days when the team is facing a righty. Otherwise, I don’t care what you want.
BR’s stat is too simple.
Uh, no. D’oh!
Pete -
Seems to me that the Hardball article seems to exaggerate the ballpark factor. According to the figures, RCF is 5th easiest in the majors to hit HRs.
Pete – Point taken. With this information it’d seem to me that Adam is a natural fit for LF. Who’s to play RF then?
48, 52: Sorry, I’ll be shutting up now.
Re. Hickey… Unbelievable.
If I wasn’t a Mariner fan, that move would be the highlight of the offseason. I would laugh for a week. “Always pitched well in the AL West.”
Friggin’ priceless.
(side effect of this move – we would never again be able to say “Don’t be silly, no one would ever trade for player X”)
Re. LaRue… that’s just amazing incompetence. Is he bald-faced lying or just that bad at his job?
Re: Ibanez… Two things to his defenders in this thread.
1. As mentioned, the problem is not him saying it, it’s the Mariners listening to it… and there have a lot of hints that they do.
2. There’s some specific phrasing choices in that quote. IF it’s a totally accurate quote, it is not a desire, it is a demand. He contrasts what he can’t or won’t control (where he plays) with playing every day.
That statement says “Look, I’ll be open about a position switch, but I won’t be open about a platoon.”
niterunner, I belive Pete alludes to that in his post:
That fifth-easiest-park-factor for Safeco’s RCF is calculated, “before you account for wind and temperature. Lower temperatures make a ballpark more difficult to hit it, and Safeco’s avergage temp of 67.1 is the third lowest in baseball”
I.e. factor in the chill and it’ll slip further down the list than 5th.
The THT park factors were calculated at average game temperature.
56-
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,†he said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.â€
I don’t get the demand there. He wants to see his name in that lineup (and every player on the roster would also like to see their own name in the lineup, so no shock there), but he’s not saying that he’ll demand a trade or anything if that doesn’t happen. So he doesn’t want to platoon. Does anyone?
If anything, isn’t it a positive signal that he’s willing to DH or play first base if that’s what fits best for the Mariners and that’s what it takes to get his back in the lineup?
One more thing about Ibanez:
“Of course, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume that Ibanez would rather play well than have the team win, which is what Dave is explicitly saying here.”
I would bet a lot of money that Raul cares more about his career than he does the Seattle Mariners. No doubt in my mind.
First of all, because most all of them do.
And who can blame them? They aren’t fans with team loyalty, they’re players with jobs. They have families.
Do they care about the group? Sure, most of them. Do they care MORE about the group than themselves? Not many.
I know very few people that care more about their organization than they do about their own career. Unless you own your own business, I suppose.
The problem isn’t the self-serving agenda, the problem is the mileage guys like Raul get, the “veteraness”, team player stuff that is no more true for Raul than it is for Adam Jones.
Also… there is no way that Raul doesn’t realize he is crap against lefties. He knows full well. He just tells himself he deserves to play everyday, or he’s better with the momentum, or he’ll get better if he keeps trying… whatever. But he doesn’t care if the team would be better if he sits… and he won’t care until it’s the only way he can get a job.
As for Raul’s comments, I think we’re overdoing it.
Of course he wants to see his name in the lineup every day. What professional athlete would go on record as saying: “I sure as hell can’t as well as I used to. I fully expect to be benched against left-handers in favor our latest 23 year old punk”.
He wasn’t issuing dark noises a la Jeff Kent or Luis Gonzales in LA; I’d expect him to be a mench about it IF the Mariners had a management team with enough courage to ask him to sit occasionally. However, as of now, we don’t.
59 – The demand is that he has drawn his line. This is what he will budge on, this is what he won’t. It’s the way he said it… if he said it that way.
And I think you misunderstand me a little, (see #60) I don’t blame Raul… he just doesn’t get any extra credit for team spirit or big-hearted veteran or any of that.
Again, the problem is not Raul saying it, or even wanting it… the problem is him wielding power or influence over those decisions. And that’s not his fault. But it looks to be exactly what he’s doing.
And yes, it is way better if he changes position.
62-
The demand is that he has drawn his line. This is what he will budge on, this is what he won’t. It’s the way he said it… if he said it that way.
Maybe I’m parsing language too much, but for it to be a demand I think it would need to have an “or else” there. Play me every day or I’ll demand to be traded, for example.
He’s setting his expectations, but I don’t think at this point it can be considered a demand.
niterunner-
Not sure where you are getting the 5th easiest for RCF. I got the rankings by dumping the THT chart into EXCEL and sorting. RCF is 11th easiest (most hitter-friendly). RF is 5th most hitter-friendly. If I understand much about how park factors are calculated (probably not), then I’m not sure they can be “exaggerated,” either. Should be an apples-to-apples data comparison, with a truer and truer picture emerging over more seasons / larger sample. Colm is right, once lower than average temperatures (early and late season) and home-to-right prevailing winds are taken into account, RF and RCF will look even more hitter-friendly, relatively speaking, and LF, LCF, and CF will get even more hitter-unfriendly. Wind is a bigger factor than temperature, if I remember the article right.
galaxieboi, on who to play RF? Guillen, if re-signed. Otherwise, Balantien, possibly, or next year’s Guillen-equivlalent scrap-heap pick up. Corner outfielders aren’t that hard to find. For that matter, if he team isn’t going to DH Ibanez, he’d be far better suited to playing RF in Safeco than LF.
61 – I knew the “overdoing it” comments were inevitable. You can’t breakdown any statement here without someone wanting to minimize it.
People say things the way they do for reasons. Unless you have reason to believe that the quote is wrong or the context was different, then it is not invalid to take a look at what people say and how they say it.
If you think Raul was just stating a desire, then I guess we’ll have to just disagree. I think Raul was pretty clearly stating where his line was.
And I find the idea of him going in and, when asked, agreeing to platoon for the good of the team to be very… glad game.
I would be surprised if that scenario hadn’t already happened to some extent or another this year. And I’d bet Raul did NOT say… “whatever makes the team better, boss.”
I don’t blame him either, but it does seem like he’s drawing a line in the sand. His contract is up after this year and I’m he wants to prove to the team (or teamS) so that he gets a new deal. He knows a full-timer will get a better deal than a platooning DHer.
Some guys see the writing on the wall and realize they don’t have left what it takes to play everyday. But even those guys I’d doubt volunteer publicly to sit. Now, what they to the manager in private might be something else.
I would be surprised if that scenario hadn’t already happened to some extent or another this year.
Given the management approach of the organization, I highly doubt it.
Seriously, those who have a problem with the quote … what exactly is the big deal? How many Mariner hitters, young or old, would you expect to answer with something other then “I want to see my name in the lineup every day?”
Makes me wonder why he was never considered for right field. (Wait. That’s right. The team doesn’t consider the unique demands of Safeco).
Ghar. Remind not to hire you for script analysis….
63 – No. Aside from reading implication, in this case the “or else” would be superfluous, actually. He contrasted “playing every day” with what he had “control over.”
I think it was a revealing statement that was also the version the press got. The version Mac or Bavasi get/got might have been a little more direct.
And again… I don’t blame him.
if your manager flat out says earlier in the year that he doesn’t see you or Sexson as platoon players, then why should you see yourself that way?
I read that Guillen wanted a 3-year deal. Is that wise? Anything longer than a year and he’s probably blocking Balantien.
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,†he said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.â€
I don’t get why that’s a big deal. Does anyone in the Mariners dugout NOT want to see their name in the lineup every day? How many major leaguers ever say “I’d like to sit three times a week to get the kids some at-bats?â€
Guys who are professional might just say this if they are injured.
Quite unlike guys like Raul and Richie. These two guys stunk it up for weeks nursing injury. They both made huge suck contributions when we had better players available because these two guys only thought of themselves. Raul absolutely did not want Jones to get any time because he knows quite well that Adam was knocking the cover off the ball. There is also the possibility that the broadcast crew might never utter the phrase “just past a diving Jones”
I think one could make a convincing argument that Raul is not so much a team player at all. One could easily argue that Raul is not interested in the team or the play-offs or anything resembling a team effort. Frankly after learning about his hidden injury, I think quite a bit less of Raul and any other veteran who thinks they alone offer the team the best chance to win even when they are injured. The hubris is astonishing.
67 – How many times can I say I don’t have a problem with Raul or what he said?
68 – Really? You don’t think Raul was stating where’d be bend and where he wouldn’t?
You guys really think that’s a stretch? That’s mind-boggling to me.
According to some of you, any of a thousand ways he could have said this would have all meant the same thing. No nuance, no implication, no subtext.
Pete -
Awk, I was reading the RF column. Still, the figures are supposed to reflect with the factors taken into account how easy/hard it is to hit HRs in the respective ballparks. I think the 5th RF porch easiest in the majors is stretching it a bit.
Actually Pete, according to Jeff Sullivan, we’re wrong. The THT park factors DO already account for average temperature. (I have just an inkling of a suspicion that Jeff knows more about Baseball than I do.)
RF in Safeco really IS the 5th best place in baseball to launch a homer. Perhaps that explains why Ichiro likes to hit them there.
Perhaps Raul should have just left it at ‘…I’ll play wherever they put me’.
RF in Safeco really IS the 5th best place in baseball to launch a homer.
Just ask most of the M’s pitching staff…they know this all too well.
73-
According to some of you, any of a thousand ways he could have said this would have all meant the same thing. No nuance, no implication, no subtext.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
And when you say “How many times can I say I don’t have a problem with Raul or what he said,” it would be more convincing if you didn’t tend to follow that by listing the problems you have with Raul and what he said.
72
Quite unlike guys like Raul and Richie. These two guys stunk it up for weeks nursing injury. They both made huge suck contributions when we had better players available because these two guys only thought of themselves. Raul absolutely did not want Jones to get any time because he knows quite well that Adam was knocking the cover off the ball.
If you like those guys, that’s called being a gamer and playing through pain to help the team.
It’s all about perspective.
We can always trade Guillen after one year. But I wouldn’t expect him to be on his best behavior if he is signed for 3 years. With Adam Jones getting more playing time next year, I expect that Guillen sit more often.
Hopefully Bavasi can negotiate Guillen into dropping his demand for a 3rd year. Perhaps giving Guillen a no-trade clause to a small number of teams, say 4 teams and/or giving a team option 3rd year.
John in LA is absolutely correct about the message carried in Raul’s statement, in my opinion. Raul made the distinction clear so everyone could understand: I’ll be a good team player about any position you ask me to play, so long as I play every day. To those of you who are pointing out that all players want to play every day: Yes, indeed. So why does Raul spell it out? Because he understands that there are reasons not to play every day, and he’s going to use his status as a beloved veteran to make it clear that he won’t be happy about it. Tell me, what would happen if Adam Jones made the same statement? He wouldn’t be congratulated for his flexibility, nor excused for saying things we know all players feel: he’s be criticized for his presumption. Despite the fact that there’s more reason to play him every day than there is to play Raul every day. Why? Because, in the eyes of the team and the media, he hasn’t earned the right to express such a desire, and Raul has.
Bernie Williams made similar statements when his decline was becoming impossible to ignore. The Yankees listened politely and ignored him. The press criticized the Yankees. The Yankees ignored them. The Yankees continue to win.
It’s incredibly frustating to speak carefully and get responses like this. John in LA isn’t listing the problems he has with Raul and what he said. He is insisting — with sound verbal argument — that what Raul said means something less innocuous than some of you want it to mean. In other words, John doesn’t have a problem with that Raul said, he has a problem with what you heard.
If you like those guys, that’s called being a gamer and playing through pain to help the team.
It’s all about perspective.
Or we could just make excuses…By the way, the sound of continuous sucking in no way “helps the team”.
It’s not about liking or disliking. I don’t know either one and in reality, my feelings towards them or any other player is meaningless.
What I do know is they both sucked at playing baseball this summer. They weren’t as skilled as other players we had available and neither had the nuts to speak up.
There’s a difference between playing through pain and playing hurt. All athletes play though some kind of pain. I bet almost all the M’s have some painful this or that, but they’re not really hurt. Playing injured and not saying anything while sucking a**? That’s kinda shi**y. I won’t speculate as to what they were thinking however.
As a fan, if I see Player X sucking I want to know why. Have his skills eroded? Does he care? Well, no one ever mentions the injury so I spend the whole season frustrated with him. Then right at the end (or after) the season it turns out his ‘X bodypart’ is broken/pulled/whatever. Lame.
Re: Raul’s “hidden” injury and his standing as a team guy. I agree that Raul should be criticized if he kept the injury not just from the public, but from the management as well. I’ve never heard any indication that the management didn’t know about it. If that’s right, we shouldn’t be blaming Raul for hobbling out there day after day.
What I do know is they both sucked at playing baseball this summer. They weren’t as skilled as other players we had available and neither had the nuts to speak up.
Or, alternatively, both thought “banged up though I am, I’m still the best option that this team has right now, so I’ll play.”
Edit #80 should say “a no-trade clause that he can exclude only a small number of teams…”
Colm: THT accounts for temperature only by calculating the chart produced in the article at each ballpark’s average temperature. So, yes, in the sense that temperature depresses HRPF (according to the article, by +/-0.26 for each degree of difference above or below the ballpark’s average temperature; in Safeco’s case, 67.1 degrees), and Safeco’s average temp is already lower than all but two other ballparks, temperature is already considered. However, you can easily see that Seattle’s first six weeks and last 2-3 weeks of any given season will typically be played in weather colder than 67 degrees (and conversely, during the “summer” months it won’t play quite as hitter-unfriendly).
That’s different than wind, because the numbers don’t account for any wind. The THT article says that on average wind will increase HRPF by 3% over calm air, but that’s also misleading, because it depends on the direction of the wind. From the article:
So, if the most common wind blows straight out to RF/RCF, or even swirling in towards home in LF/LCF and a bit out to RF/RCF (as it seems to me, anecdotally, and given the park’s positioning relative to the Sound, that makes sense), then it is going to increase the HRPF for RF and RCF by 1.9 per each MPH of wind, but the closer to LCF you get, the more that same wind is depressing HRPF to LF/LCF, and even CF. I’m just guessing here, because I haven’t seen data on wind in Safeco; just going by my own experience and observations, which seem to support the data and the way fly balls seemingly get held up in LF/LCF, and carry the other way.
85 – Very true. If the M’s knew all about it and still played him it really is on their collective asses.
78 – As a cigar fan if they all smoke the same.
“And when you say “How many times can I say I don’t have a problem with Raul or what he said,†it would be more convincing if you didn’t tend to follow that by listing the problems you have with Raul and what he said.”
Ok, I just re-read everything I wrote to see if I deserved that. I don’t see where I do.
I was pretty clear that I don’t blame Raul for acting in his best interests. I just think that it’s clear that that is what he is doing.
Which puts him in a very select subset of pro baseball players, also known as “damn near all.”
Also, in that last sentence you could replace “pro baseball players” with “people.”
81-82 – Thanks. And good point about AJ. Hickey’s head would have exploded.
galaxieboi said:
I think three years is at least a year too much. IIRC, Dave was on board with 3 years, at somewhere in the neighborhood of $30M, and Derek thinks Dave is “off his rocker” on that score. Reasonable minds can differ; as Dave said then, it really depends on what you think of Wladmir Balantien, his skill set and its fit for Safeco, and how soon he will be ready for prime-time. According to what Bavasi said at the Tacoma outing, there is no way the M’s will start two rookies in the OF, and they believe Balantien has an option remaining and still has things to learn in AAA. Finding a fit for RF next year is something of a priority, even if it is much less of a priority than pitching. After next year (even before), well, has Balantien (currently right-handed pull hitter with little plate discipline and lots of Ks, only average defender) become a decent fit for Safeco, or is he an asset better used for trade?
I wouldn’t sign Guillen to three years, but not necessarily because of blocking Balantien, but because relative to how easy it is to find another, cheaper Guillen, at his age they would be paying too much for what they are likely going to get in that third year (his age 34 season), whether it is at the expense of an improved version of Balantien or the next, younger/cheaper version of circa winter-2006 Jose Guillen.
If it is going to be so much debated, perhaps one should just ask Baker the question he asked that got the quote, Baker’s interpretation (ultimatum or no), and if there was anything more to the quote. Baker has reported post-game conversations in his blog, and then upon moving them to the game report shortened the quotes (I assume due to column space.)
Also, in that last sentence you could replace “pro baseball players†with “people.â€
Of course.
Which is kind of the point. I don’t think his quote “veteran entitlement,” any more than a similar Adam Jones quote would be “youthful arrogance” or whatever. If you’re a Major League hitter, you tend to think that you’re the best option to play on a daily basis — you can’t objectively evaluate your own skills. That’s up to the management team.
I guess I didn’t do a very good job of saying what I was actually trying to say.
It’s not surprising that Raul Ibanez wants to play everyday, or thinks that he’s the team’s best left fielder, or whatever. All these guys have egos the size of Jupiter. I don’t expect Raul Ibanez to feel any differently than he actually does.
However, people need to realize that this is a very real, tangible, negative biproduct of having a veteran laden roster, especially when the orgnaization enables those veterans to dictate playing time to the manager as the Mariners have done.
The media talks about the problems of inexperience all the time, and the orgnaization has constantly frittered over mental mistakes made by young players. We’re reminded over and over that there are negative consequences to having a roster full of inexperienced players.
However, the flip side is never talked about – there are negative consequences to having a roster full of experienced veterans, too. This is a big one – the team is unable to put the best possible line-up on the field without the entitled veterans throwing a fit and creating a public controversy.
You can’t have it both ways, simultaneously lamenting the problems of inexperience and glossing over the problems of experience. There are positives and negatives to both youngsters and veterans.
This natural sense of entitlement that veterans carry with them is just an obvious downside to building your team around such players.
This isn’t about Raul Ibanez as much as it is about veterans in general, and the totally predictable attitude Ibanez has towards his playing time is another reason why the organization’s veteran fetish is a serious problem that needs to be addressed.
Larry Stone was just reminding us that Cleveland is still battling for the best record, so we shouldn’t expect to see the kids play until the Texas series.
sigh.
Pete – I too have some concerns with Wlad’s plate discipline but he showed a good leap of improvement this season. A concern are his pre/post All-Star splits.
Pre- 328/397/596 39/67 BB/K 329ABs
Post- 209/281/318 15/38 BB/K 148ABs
Off the cuff, that seems pretty awful. And Safeco appears to be murder on hitters with his profile. If he learned something from his post-All Star slump, awesome. If not, he must fear the evil breaking ball.
Regarding Raul’s injury, and what management knew and when they knew it, we have this story:
From that, it sounds like the managers knew Raul wasn’t healthy, and couldn’t be expected to be much an offensive threat until he was healthy, but instead of putting him on the DL (possibly allowing him to get back to 100% and back in the lineup more quickly, while not having a liability in the field and at the plate) they kept running him out there anyway.
But then there’s this, a little later in the article:
So it’s unclear at what point he told the coaching and training staff; it’s possible it was quite late, when he was almost healthy again, and the managers — perhaps somewhat embarassed they didn’t notice anything was amiss earlier — are retroactively claiming they knew about it all along. It’s also possible they did notice fairly quickly, but kept running him out there anyway. Either way, there’s plenty of blame to spread on Ibanez and Hargrove/MacLaren; the only question is who gets more.
Given my background in theatre, I can safely say that as actors, the lot of you would make really good….baseball analysts.
And if the problem is in how management allots playing time (and this is where it is), then you’re wasting time trying to do line readings for Raul and ignoring where the real problems lie.
Wlad, April – June: 1.25 GB/FB, 20% line drives, K/AB of 0.21
Wlad, July – September: 1.22 GB/FB, 21% line drives, K/AB of 0.22
Down the stretch he did homer and walk less often and pop up a little more, but I don’t see any sign of a change in skillset. We know he’s absurdly strong, so I’m guessing what you’re seeing is the effect that missing two or three hittable pitches can have on your stats over a small sample.
96/galaxieboi-
I agree he made a good leap, but I’d like to see him sustain it (even improve on it) over a larger sample and a second year in AAA. This fits pretty nicely into the discussion we’ve been having about LF/LCF in Safeco, because if there’s anything the Mariners have a fetish for other than veterans, it’s right-handed pull hitters. I suspect that is one reason why Dave is on board with re-signing Guillen: Balatien is the kind of hitter who gets killed at Safeco, and Guillen has shown than he isn’t (so much).
And it’s gotta be a fetish, given that they refuse to modify the dimensions of Safeco.
Either way, there’s plenty of blame to spread on Ibanez and Hargrove/MacLaren; the only question is who gets more.
The athlete. An athlete should always know his ability and his health status. I raced bikes for years. I knew when I was capable and when I wasn’t. I wasn’t able to fool myself into a faster sprint…no more then a batter can convince himself his bat speed is up to par.
I dunno Pete, both Balentien and Jose Guillen are aggressive, right-handed pull-hitters with good power. Neither is a patient hitter who one can rely upon to use the whole field (like, say, Edgar).
I think Dave’s contention is not that there is a difference of type, but of degree.
Jeff and Pete – I know I’m really excited to see what he does with another full season. Maybe that 150 ABs IS such a small sample size it doesn’t matter a lot. I know he was injured at some point in there too.
Jeff – Where did you find those stats? I’ve just been using BBAmerica. That’s incredible he was so consistent that way and SO far off with his other stats.
98 – “Given my background in theatre, I can safely say that as actors, the lot of you would make really good….baseball analysts.”
Get your money back from Uta, it didn’t stick.
“And if the problem is in how management allots playing time (and this is where it is), then you’re wasting time trying to do line readings for Raul and ignoring where the real problems lie.”
Do you really think discussing what Raul meant is keeping me from fixing the Mariners?
Good lord.
We know he’s absurdly strong, so I’m guessing what you’re seeing is the effect that missing two or three hittable pitches can have on your stats over a small sample.
Didn’t Balentien have some injuries during the second half, which might explain the drop in performance?
Is there anyway to know how Balentien plays in Safeco without actually trying him out for awhile? Anyone seen him play in Tacoma? Or is there somekind of ‘hittracker’ date available in the minor leagues?
Mike – Yeah, he dislocated his left pinky on August 13th.
Holy crap. I didn’t know the M’s offered him to the Royals. Check this out on Rotoworld.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=6
Does anyone think that fans and the media will begin to criticize Ibanez for not asking to be moved out of LF when it is clear that such a move would help the team? My guess is no. Yet Ichiro was often criticized for not volunteering to move to CF. While the situations are not analagous, both exhibit how players naturally want what is best for them and believe that what is best for them is what is best for the team. The manager’s job is to tell them otherwise with the least amount of contention and consternation.
109 – McLaren, like Melvin and Hargrove before him, can’t do that. He has no back bone.
It’s pretty clear that you move Jones to the outfield and Ibanez to first base or DH.
Tell BIG STINKIE and TURBO to pack their bags.
But, it won’t happen. And we’ll be complaining about these same things next year. It never ends …
Yeah, yeah, yeah…that’s what they all say from the other side of the audition table.
Well, generally, I don’t pay attention to the actor–if they’re being misused, I blame the director or producer. Waste of time talking about them.
104 – http://minorleaguesplits.com/
And yeah, Wlad didn’t go deep after returning from his pinky injury.
Jeff – Friggin’ sweet. Thanks a lot.
Firstinning.com is better.
111- “Yeah, yeah, yeah…that’s what they all say from the other side of the audition table.”
?
What was your point by the way?
You said:
“Ghar. Remind not to hire you for script analysis….”
and:
“Given my background in theatre, I can safely say that as actors, the lot of you would make really good….baseball analysts.”
What exactly was your point? You don’t think different words mean different things?
“Well, generally, I don’t pay attention to the actor–if they’re being misused, I blame the director or producer. Waste of time talking about them.”
Then imagine how big a waste of time it must be to talk about people talking about them.
At least your Jon Lovitz impersonation is funny. “Given my background in the theatre (“re”, of course. This isn’t a multiplex, you barbarians.) I’ve learned not to squander my time on the things the groundlings say.”
Dave – Wow, firstinning is awesome too. Thanks a lot.
First Inning is better, but minorleaguesplits is still my first reflex.
81: Scraps – well put point on Bernie Williams. Winning is about putting your best combination of guys on the field to maximize your chances — not about whether or not you piss off the perceived “class acts” in your organization.
The point is that any competent actor (and a lot of incompetent ones) could take the exact quote you got and give two entirely different readings from them. One of them would match your interpretation, one would be entirely different. The statement that you’re so very sure about is, at best, an ambiguous one.
Another point is that folks are spending an awful lot of time over interpreting what a player means when that meaning is irrelevant–you may massage his ego, but you move him to where he will do the best for the team. Just like you place or cast an actor, who have rather large egos themselves, to where the production will do best—you just don’t spend a lot of time worrying about how he’ll take it.
Russ at 102:
I agree that the player has to come clean, and, given the quotes Joser dug up, it sounds like Raul was not entirely forthcoming, which of course screws the team and the fans. On the other hand, it sounds like it was brutally clear in the depths of his slump that his mechanics were impaired. Why, oh why, would McLaren keep sending him up there? Since when is swinging the bat repeatedly the best way to heal a shoulder injury, and if it is, isn’t the place to do that in Tacoma on a rehab stint?
Colm: From what I’ve heard (I haven’t seen enough of Wlad to form a first-hand opinion), he is more of a pull hitter than Guillen, whose spray chart actually shows him hitting more outfield balls to the center (LCF to RCF) region that left. It also shows Guillen hits breaking balls for better average than fastballs, which tells me he isn’t a dead-pull hitter. Balls hit in the infield (which I would argue are balls he probably hit less well, or was fooled on) – yeah, he tends to pull. He’s not a pull hitter like, say, Lopez or Johjima, who hit more balls on the ground and to the outfield (Lopez 47% of balls in play; Johjima 50%) than almost all other places combined.
I don’t know why exactly, but I am under the impression that Balantien is more like Lopez/Johjima than Guillen. A matter of degree? Probably.
119 – “The point is that any competent actor (and a lot of incompetent ones) could take the exact quote you got and give two entirely different readings from them. One of them would match your interpretation, one would be entirely different. The statement that you’re so very sure about is, at best, an ambiguous one.”
You think that since an actor can read a line different ways that means that the words themselves have no meaning?
But why would I care what an actor would mean? I was talking about what Raul meant. He chose to say something and chose a specific way to say it.
Does a photograph mean nothing because someone could turn it pink with photoshop?
And putting all that aside… you rely on actors to tell you what something means? Because if you don’t then who cares how they interpret it? And if you do, then… ouch.
For your second point… That would be lovely if I got to make the decision. You seem to be confusing what the organization should do and what I, as a fan, should discuss. I don’t have anything to do with the former, and the latter shouldn’t really concern you, I wouldn’t think.
I’m getting to the party late, but…what?
John Hickey is seriously advocating trading for Barry Zito? In what world could that possibly even make sense?
Giving credit where credit is due: I saw the link to that story posted by “jlc” at the end of this game thread, which also features a link to a similar story about Sexson:
John Hickey is seriously advocating trading for Barry Zito? In what world could that possibly even make sense?
HickeyWorld, where Zito is always desirable, Penny is always available, and the M’s can trade Reed for Haren.
It’s Hickey’s World, but hopefully he’s the only guy who has to live in it.
I really liked Stone’s column too, and, following on yesterday’s post about Dodgers veterans, he notes that the M’s and Dodgers are 2 of the 3 high-spending teams that aren’t going to the post-season. Not much of a mystery there: veterans are expensive, and if you load up your roster with them and then they don’t produce, what you have is a very expensive also-ran team. This is not unlike Tom Boswell’s “California Malingerers” that I cited yesterday in the veterans’ post. (He was referring to the California Angels’ teams of the late ’90’s, which had lots of very expensive free agent stars, but went absolutely nowhere.)