Game 159, Indians at Mariners

DMZ · September 27, 2007 at 6:21 pm · Filed Under Game Threads 

Byrd v Baek. With McLaren supposedly assured of retaining his job, it’ll be interesting to see if his… Clement’s DHing? And Ibanez is… really? We’re going to have a whole other year of this?

Cleveland shows their respect for the rest of the league with a sub-tastic lineup.

Comments

66 Responses to “Game 159, Indians at Mariners”

  1. Free Range Chicken on September 27th, 2007 6:28 pm

    Ay, chihuahua! Can I turn my brain off now, too? It doesn’t feel so good.

  2. msb on September 27th, 2007 6:30 pm

    well, it’s not like Cleveland is playing any one affecting the race …. sigh.

    oh, yay. Richie gets re-evaluated by the doc tomorrow, and if he gets clearance, we may see HIM tomorrow. Richie and Jeff Weaver. That’s the way to see the season out at the old ballpark.

  3. Sports on a Schtick on September 27th, 2007 6:37 pm

    Guillen’s gonna end the year with 99 RBI, leaving everyone pissed.

  4. msb on September 27th, 2007 7:04 pm

    ah, the NL.

    Joel just pitched 8 innings of 3-hit ball against the Mets.

  5. Sports on a Schtick on September 27th, 2007 7:16 pm

    Damn. Those Mets must be REALLY struggling.

  6. joser on September 27th, 2007 7:19 pm

    Damn. Those Mets must be REALLY struggling.
    Oh, they are.

  7. joealb on September 27th, 2007 7:19 pm

    No Adam Jones? No excuse, F&*K you John McLaren!

  8. Panev on September 27th, 2007 7:26 pm

    McLaren inherited a bigger mess than I thought, but he really didn’t manage well.

    The whole season ended for me when Rick White showed up. Wasn’t there anyone better than Rick White in the M’s system? He was the wrong guy at the wrong time. While I can’t blame him personally, I think this showed how desperate the M’s were.

    I really hope Bavasi makes two or three good moves this off season.

  9. kyoko on September 27th, 2007 7:27 pm

    I’m trying to work out why Baek is a better No 5 starter than HoRam. I think it’s got to be that Baek throws his junk over the plate and hopes for the best. While HoRam mixes up junk over the plate with a whole lot of walks.

  10. joser on September 27th, 2007 7:32 pm

    You know, this has been nagging at me for the last couple of days:

    Forget disrespecting baseball: maybe the Indians want to lose these games. I mean, think about the divisional matchups: the Yankees can’t face the Red Sox, so they’re going to be up against either the Indians or the Angels, whichever has the better record. Even though history shows that the season-series record doesn’t predict the outcome in the postseason, the Indians — who are 0-6 against the Yankees this year — may very well prefer to face the Angels in a short series. Right now they’re a couple of games ahead of the Angels, but if the Angels keep pushing for home field advantage (which is no advantage, see the link) and the Indians keep running out the September call-ups….

    Wedge isn’t stupid, and I don’t think he blindly subscribes to asinine “tradition” (two ways he differs from the other manager in tonight’s game); but I don’t think he’d break tradition just for the hell of it. I think he has a plan.

  11. hub on September 27th, 2007 7:35 pm

    I can see it now: “M’s Lock Up Guillen To 3-year, $43-Million Extension”

  12. joser on September 27th, 2007 7:37 pm

    The whole season ended for me when Rick White showed up.

    I really hope Bavasi makes two or three good moves this off season.

    You understand how one of these statements undercuts the other? White didn’t just “show up.” Bavasi thought he was the best available arm at the time. Or McLaren was begging him for a “veteran” to put in the bullpen, and Bavasi was willing to give him one no matter how washed-up he might be or how much damage he might cause when McLaren used him. Either way, it doesn’t suggest we should put much hope in Bavasi’s ability to make two or three, or even one, “good moves” this off season, does it?

  13. joser on September 27th, 2007 7:38 pm

    I can see it now: “M’s Lock Up Guillen To 3-year, $43-Million Extension”

    And expect it sooner rather than later: in the pre-game Lincoln lovefest, Drayer mentioned Guillen’s agent was in the stands tonight. But I’m sure he’s just here to enjoy the weather.

  14. Mike Honcho on September 27th, 2007 7:45 pm

    Let’s see: Clement hits a game-tying HR in the late innings against Cleveland and is rewarded with a start the next day.

    Adam Jones hits a game-tying HR in the late innings against Oakland and is rewarded with three days on the bench.

    Whatever. John McLaren is just so awesome…

  15. joealb on September 27th, 2007 7:49 pm

    Love the sarcasm Mike. No excuse, The M’s best prospect on the bench when the games mean NOTHING! FREE ADAM JONES!!!!!!

  16. joser on September 27th, 2007 7:55 pm

    …and, in spite of my efforts, this game will probably set the season record for fewest posts in a game. Well, unless one of the games in the Texas series does.

    I kind of wonder if all of USSM is out buying cyanide…

  17. naviomelo on September 27th, 2007 7:58 pm

    9 – Baek is nothing special, but he’s a serviceable #5 in my opinion. 6.28 K/9, 1.87 BB/9, 3.72 FIP in 2007. As always, small sample size theater applies, but he’s shown at least some ability to miss bats in his career.

  18. DizzleChizzle on September 27th, 2007 8:17 pm

    I haven’t logged on in a while, but I just noticed that Clement is DHing today? I wonder what Jones thinks of that.

    I also noticed that Bavasi and McLaren will be back next season. That’s the best news of the season because it means Horacio, Reistma, and that fat guy who replaced Reistma will probably be back next season as well.

  19. jlc on September 27th, 2007 8:21 pm

    I’m not surprised, I predicted the rehirings, but seeing it come to pass still hit me in the gut. The only things left to make the season complete are knowing that Richie and Dave Sims will be coming back next year.

  20. don52656 on September 27th, 2007 8:25 pm

    Having been a season-ticket holder for 25 seasons now, there is one thing that I have noticed and don’t know if it’s been discussed here. The “single” in the Indian’s 2nd that Willie botched is another of a continuing series of really ridiculous scoring decisions that I’ve seen this year. Anyone know who does the scoring for the Mariner’s home games?

  21. msb on September 27th, 2007 8:28 pm

    what!!! biased home scoring at a baseball game???!!!!!

  22. msb on September 27th, 2007 8:30 pm

    any chance #3 Jose also hits a HR tonight?

  23. don52656 on September 27th, 2007 8:30 pm

    What is the bias? Willie avoids an error, but Baek gets a potential earned run instead of an unearned one.

    Willie’s defense and baserunning have sure suffered this year. It’s a good thing he’s such a good hitter, or …oh yeah.

  24. Ebenezer on September 27th, 2007 8:35 pm

    17 – actually, I think if Baek had been healthy this year, he would have been at least a #4. His numbers are strange in 2007, but small sample size (67 1/3 innings) as you say. For 2007 ERA+, FIP and xFIP (ranked by xFIP):

    Felix: 106, 3.94, 3.49
    Baek: 79, 3.87, 4.62
    Batista: 98, 4.70, 5.15
    Washburn: 100, 4.84, 5.31
    Weaver: 69, 5.19, 5.42
    Ramirez: 60, 5.62, 5.47

  25. don52656 on September 27th, 2007 8:36 pm

    I remember last year we finished the season with Woods and Baek in the rotation, and the conventional wisdom was that one or both of them would compete for rotation spots this year. I wonder how much different this season would have turned out if we had let that happen. Woods struggled this year in Tacoma, but I’d bet a lot that he wouldn’t have been worse than Ramirez, and Baek would have been at least as good as Weaver. Plus, we’d still have Soriano and $9 million.

    The bias towards veteran players, no matter how marginal, is not merely a McLaren bias.

  26. don52656 on September 27th, 2007 8:38 pm

    For years now, my feeling towards Willie has been that any major league team that has him on the 25-man roster is incapable of making the playoffs.

  27. dnc on September 27th, 2007 8:52 pm

    You guys are missing what’s really important here.

    Mike Morse has ten home run power!

  28. JR Ewing on September 27th, 2007 8:52 pm

    scoring is clearly impacting bingo

  29. jlc on September 27th, 2007 8:54 pm

    Since Lopez doesn’t get covered by veteran entitlement, how do you reach that plateau? Is it years of service or age? Or maybe wearing the right cologne or eating the right flavor of ice cream?

  30. CCW on September 27th, 2007 8:55 pm

    The official scorer is a friend of mine. I guaranty there is no bias… at all. He tries to call it according to rule book. The supposed “home-team bias” of official scorers is an absolute myth.

  31. DMZ on September 27th, 2007 8:57 pm

    That’s not a good argument, for a couple of reasons.

  32. Ebenezer on September 27th, 2007 8:58 pm

    Baek looks good. Sure, it’s a meaningless game, but Feierabend didn’t do quite as well in his meaningless game last night.

  33. scott19 on September 27th, 2007 9:03 pm

    Geez, compared to a lot of of Weaver & HoRam starts this year, Baek looks like the Second Coming of Clemens.

  34. kyoko on September 27th, 2007 9:14 pm

    Baek is Ok as LR or emergency starter but his fastball isn’t fast and he doesn’t have an out pitch. It’s just if the Ms think Washburn is a #2 then Baek does look like a serviceable #4 or #5. It’s all relative to having a crap rotation (plus Felix).

  35. hub on September 27th, 2007 9:15 pm

    “The official scorer is a friend of mine. I guaranty there is no bias… at all. He tries to call it according to rule book. The supposed “home-team bias” of official scorers is an absolute myth.”

    Please explain this point further.

  36. smb on September 27th, 2007 9:22 pm

    Home clubhouse attendant Michael “Jam” Spears was found unconscious last night outside a Belltown establishment, victim of an apparent assault. He’s in ICU but stable last I heard and recovering, but we could all stand to send him some good vibes while we’re at it. Get better soon, Jam!

  37. Matt from Tacoma on September 27th, 2007 9:25 pm

    Dave / Derek – any interest in Cliff Lee as a candidate for the fifth starter role next year. He’s been pretty awful this year, but his numbers the two previous years were decent to pretty good. He seems like a good candidate for the Tribe to non-tender in the off season, or at least to give away for pennies on the dollar.

  38. msb on September 27th, 2007 9:26 pm

    not a good week for the clubhouse.

  39. _David_ on September 27th, 2007 9:30 pm

    Who were they just interviewing?

  40. Moondog on September 27th, 2007 9:30 pm

    Who would you rather have on your roster, Asdrubal Cabrera or Jose Lopez?

  41. ccm on September 27th, 2007 9:30 pm

    Seriously, who gives a flying f*ck about George Thoroughgood

  42. _David_ on September 27th, 2007 9:31 pm

    C’mon, there’s reason to knock George Thoroughgood.

  43. DMZ on September 27th, 2007 9:37 pm

    Cliff Lee? Why bother, it doesn’t matter anyway bleagh why am I even watching

  44. smb on September 27th, 2007 9:43 pm

    Awful week for the clubhouse, the club, and of course, the fans. The macabre, Reagle dead at 37 and Jam beaten within an inch of his life, and the cynical, a stay of execution for McLaren and Bavasi. Needless to say our current 4-1 lead is pretty meaningless to me right now.

  45. _David_ on September 27th, 2007 9:43 pm

    40: Lopez has more potential. I think.

  46. smb on September 27th, 2007 9:44 pm

    41

    Something tells me you aren’t jacked to see Rick Springfield, either. :D

  47. scott19 on September 27th, 2007 9:45 pm

    Neihaus just mentioned that Bavasi and McLaren will be back to “run the ship” in ’08.

    Wonder if the name of that ship is the EDMUND FITZGERALD?!

  48. smb on September 27th, 2007 9:50 pm

    Maybe Gordon Lightfoot is available to manage?

  49. fetish on September 27th, 2007 9:51 pm

    Good thing we brought it Sherril for that. Blowers is rights – “That’s not playing”

  50. msb on September 27th, 2007 10:11 pm

    Bavasi due up on the post-game. Not going to talk about much, I’m betting.

  51. Oly Rainiers Fan on September 27th, 2007 10:20 pm

    Read Baker’s blog. Bavasi talked about the human element, and how it’s not fantasy baseball they do.

  52. Colm on September 27th, 2007 10:24 pm

    Is Bill Krueger suggesting that the Mariners retain Jeff Weaver?

    What-ever… That man has no shame.

  53. dw on September 27th, 2007 10:25 pm

    The legend lives on from the Ballardites on down
    Of the bad team they call Marineros
    The team, it is said, never gives up its vets
    When their age has made them turn sucky

    With bad contracts galore – a hundred million bucks more
    Than the Florida Marlins paid Hanley
    The fans good and true were about to be screwed
    When the hopes of the playoffs came early….

    That’s the best I can do. One of you all will have to finish it.

  54. joser on September 27th, 2007 10:30 pm

    Unfortunately, it’s not reality baseball they do (well) either.

  55. CCW on September 27th, 2007 10:49 pm

    Regarding the official scorer… I wasn’t making an argument. I was stating a fact. Two facts, really.

    The M’s official scorer is a friend of mine. We’ve been friends for many many years. I know him very well. We have had many conversations about his scoring decisions and what causes him to decide one way or another when the decisions are close. Based on these discussions, I can say with relative certainty that bias for or against the home-team players, when the home-team is the Mariners, is not a factor in his scoring decisions.

    I hope that helps.

    To extend it further, we have also discussed the roles of the official scorer in general and the fact that the official scorer is an MLB employee (not an employee of the Mariners). We’ve discussed whether the home team puts pressure on the official scorer to make certain decisions and, if so, how much, and whether, based on what my friend has heard and seen, in talking to other official scorers, his experience with the M’s is similar to the experiences of other official scorers around the league. Based what I have learned in these conversations, I think I am in a position to say that the “home-team” bias is probably a myth. There just is not the connection between the official scorer and the home team that people seem to believe exists.

    How’s that?

  56. Karen on September 27th, 2007 11:42 pm

    OK, the 2 things are: bias for/against home team players is not a factor in his decisions, and the home team bias thing is (probably) a myth.

    So, CCW, what you’re saying is, he flips a coin? :)

    Just kidding…

    What DOES your friend’s foray into the rule book say about WFB and that wicked bouncing ball tonight?

  57. CCW on September 28th, 2007 6:05 am

    I didn’t see the play last night. Check out rule 10.12, though, in the official MLB Rules. The standard is “ordinary effort”. So, if by ordinary effort, Willie should have made the play, then it should be considered an error. In practice, I would say that there are fewer errors awarded than the casual observer would think should be awarded. Most of my discussions with my friend have been about errors not awarded, rather than the reverse. This stems from the “ordinary effort” language. If the play is at all difficult, an error probably won’t be awarded. For example, if there’s a bad hop, if the ball is especially hard hit, etc. My guess is that if you believe that there is some sort of bias in scoring, and you adjust your perspective so that the threshhold for an error is a few notches higher, you’ll see that there isn’t really a bias. What you perceive is a bias is really just a different standard for errors than intuition suggests is appropriate.

    By the way, we value analysis here. Has anyone seen a study on this question? The critical variables are certainly quantifiable…

  58. Adam S on September 28th, 2007 7:07 am

    If the play is at all difficult, an error probably won’t be awarded.
    I think that’s my (our) gripe with the scoring sometimes. These aren’t 16-year-old high school kids out there, these are major leaguer. Every play doesn’t have to be an easy two hopper or a high, lazy fly to be routine.

    In my mind the primary, if not only, reason we’re seeing so many fielding records these days is the reluctance of official scorers across the league to hand out errors, except for wild throws or the easiest of fly balls and grounders. Certainly a bad hop requires more than ordinary effort, but a hard ground ball should be fielded by a major leaguer.

    Your friend may well be correct that that’s the standard that should be applied, but it’s a different standard than when I was a kid.

  59. CCW on September 28th, 2007 7:19 am

    I don’t necessarily disagree, but, for the sake of argument, look at it this way: the guys we are watching are the best of the best. Many plays that they make look routine would in fact be muffed by 99.99% of the general population.

    Also, I don’t trust your observation that “it’s a different standard than when I was a kid.” Most “back in my day, things were different” arguments don’t stand up to scrutiny. Everyone seems to think things were tougher, more demanding, etc., back in the day. I think this says more about the way our memories work than about the way things actually were…

  60. DMZ on September 28th, 2007 8:13 am

    So you’re arguing that our memories can be biased, causing us to view things in a different way, but we shouldn’t consider that you, arguing on behalf of your friend the scorer, might not see things that favor his assertions of unbias and general fairness.

  61. DMZ on September 28th, 2007 8:16 am

    Based on these discussions, I can say with relative certainty that bias for or against the home-team players, when the home-team is the Mariners, is not a factor in his scoring decisions.

    Based what I have learned in these conversations, I think I am in a position to say that the “home-team” bias is probably a myth.

    By the way, we value analysis here. Has anyone seen a study on this question? The critical variables are certainly quantifiable…

    Nah. What we should do is find someone who says he knows the scorer, and just see what he says. I’m sure that he would be able to make a certain determination that would settle the issue. Like, say, you, when you started on this subject:

    The supposed “home-team bias” of official scorers is an absolute myth.

    Oh, it’s a done deal then. I don’t know why we’d go looking for data to investigate this after it’s been so clearly stated that it’s an absolute myth. Why bother?

  62. DMZ on September 28th, 2007 8:25 am

    I’ll just give you the solution, rather than continue to grind my teeth in frustration: there have been looks at whether there’s bias by the hometown scorer. You could find them if you wanted, but whatever.

    Short version: some scorers appear to be pretty biased in favor of the home team. The White Sox guy, as of 2006, was the worst in a study Dan Fox ran. Standard caveats apply.

  63. msb on September 28th, 2007 8:36 am

    I was trying to remember just who Blowers actually commented on during the season; that he felt was notorious through the years for favoring the home side…

  64. DMZ on September 28th, 2007 8:50 am

    The M’s were 7th in home-town bias: they were charged for errors at a rate 10% lower while at home, and visitors were charged at a 5% lower rate. So even if you argue they’ve historically just been soft, they’ve also historically been twice as generous to home town players.

  65. CCW on September 28th, 2007 2:43 pm

    You know, you could make your point without being so dickish. That said, I still get your point. I’m not sure if you get mine: I have had lots of actual conversations with one of the people whom people think is biased about that very subject. I would think you would find that interesting. I would think the people who read things here would want to hear that perspective. If it really causes you to grind your teeth… then shit, that’s your problem.

    Here’s the Dan Fox article, for those interested: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5546

    I would say DMZ… overstates… Fox’s conclusions. The articles is chalk full of caveats and qualifications and contains no real conclusions about hometown bias. There is no effort, for example, to correct for the fact that we would expect guys to play better D in the stadium where they play half their games.

    Here is a statement from the article: “teams were charged with 3% fewer errors at home over the seven season sample.” Might not that 3% be accounted for by something other than bias?

  66. scott19 on September 28th, 2007 6:51 pm

    53: Great job on the lyric, DW…wanted to add another verse myself, but couldn’t come up with any more good lines.

    Anyways, too funny…thanx! :)

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.