Dave’s Offseason Plan, v.2007
For the fifth year in a row, I’m putting out an offseason plan – sort of. Each of the last few years, I’ve offered up suggestions for offseason roster maneuvers based on players I was in favor of acquiring, encouraging the team to continue to build its core roster while also giving themselves a chance to contend.
This year, I’m going to do it slightly differently. Looking back over the posts of the last four years, the suggestions hold up well in terms of the philosophy we’d like to see the organization adopt, but don’t work as well in terms of practical suggestions. It’s one thing to explain why the Mariners should be interested in guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, or A.J. Burnett, but its another thing entirely to actually complete that kind of acquisition, especially given the constraints that the front office operates under.
So, this year, I’m breaking it into two posts. This one is more practical, less dramatic, and offers some suggestions that are actually within the realm of possibility given the current organizational structure. I’ll do another post at a later date that acts as more of an idealistic scenario where we could shape the roster how we wanted it worrying about the P.R. impact or how those moves would be looked upon by the executives or the guys in the clubhouse.
In this post, I’m taking into account the logistics of the people in place – John McLaren is the manager, Bill Bavasi is the GM, Chuck Armstrong is the president, and the team is coming off an 88 win season. Trading a bunch of veterans and turning over half the roster just isn’t going to happen in this kind of framework. These guys want to keep their jobs, and to do that, they’re going to try to win as many games in 2008 as possible. They have inherent biases towards experience that have to be accounted for. So, I’ve tried to take all those external factors into account and find options that both fit the necessary criteria while also improving the roster without destroying the future of the franchise.
So, without further ado, here’s the roster.
| Lineup | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ichiro Suzuki | CF | $17,000,000 |
| 2. | Jose Vidro | DH | $6,000,000 |
| 3. | Adrian Beltre | 3B | $12,000,000 |
| 4. | Raul Ibanez | 1B | $5,500,000 |
| 5. | Kenji Johjima | C | $5,200,000 |
| 6. | Geoff Jenkins | LF | $8,000,000 |
| 7. | Adam Jones | RF | $400,000 |
| 8. | Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | $1,300,000 |
| 9. | Jose Lopez | 2B | $500,000 |
| Bench | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ray Durham | Util | $7,500,000 |
| 2. | Willie Bloomquist | Inf | $950,000 |
| 3. | Jamie Burke | C | $400,000 |
| 4. | Mike Morse | 1B/3B | $400,000 |
| Rotation | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Felix Hernandez | Starter | $500,000 |
| 2. | Miguel Batista | Starter | $9,000,000 |
| 3. | Jarrod Washburn | Starter | $10,000,000 |
| 4. | Bartolo Colon | Starter | $10,000,000 |
| 5. | Ryan Rowland-Smith | Starter | $400,000 |
| Bullpen | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | J.J. Putz | Closer | $3,800,000 |
| 2. | Sean Green | RH Setup | $450,000 |
| 3. | George Sherrill | LH Setup | $450,000 |
| 4. | Jeremy Affeldt | Middle | $3,000,000 |
| 5. | Eric O’Flaherty | Middle | $450,000 |
| 6. | Mark Lowe | Long Relief | $450,000 |
| 7. | Cha Seung Baek | Long Relief | $450,000 |
And here are the actual transactions that were assumed:
Trade Richie Sexson and $4.5 million in cash to San Francisco for Ray Durham
Trade Ben Broussard to Baltimore for random prospect with a pulse.
Non-tender Horacio Ramirez and decline option on Chris Reitsma.
Sign Geoff Jenkins to a 1 year contract worth $8 million.
Sign Bartolo Colon to a 1 year contract worth $10 million.
Sign Jeremy Affeldt to a 3 year contract worth $9 million.
Three free agent signings, none of them considered major, and a couple of minor trades. In all, a fairly boring winter, and one that probably incurs an initial reaction of “That team sucks”. However, hear me out, as I think there’s some logic here.
On paper, the Sexson-Durham swap is basically one free agent disappointment for another, with the M’s covering all but $2 million of the differences between their ’08 salaries. It’s not a big cash savings deal, and Durham is one of the few players in baseball that was actually a worse regular than Sexson last year. Durham turns 36 in a month and, based on his .218/.293/.343 line from last year, looks just about finished as a ballplayer.
However, take a closer look. This is a guy who hit .293/.360/.538 in 2006, making him a borderline all-star, and his underlying performance didn’t change all that much.
BB%: 2006 – 9.2%, 2007 – 11.0%
K%: 2006 – 11.0%, 2007 – 14.0%
GB%: 2006 – 46%, 2007 – 46%
LD%: 2006 – 17%, 2007 – 14%
His walkrate and strikeout both went up slightly, indicating that he was starting to lose a little batspeed and compensated by working the count more often. This is pretty common in aging players. His groundball rate remained the same, so there wasn’t a dramatic change in the arc of his swing. His line drive rate dropped a bit, but this is less predictive than you might think, and a 3% drop isn’t nearly enough to account for the massive change in results between 2006 and 2007.
So where was the difference? Here:
Batting Average On Balls In Play: 2006 – .292, 2007 – .238
Among major league hitters with 300+ PA, Durham posted the third lowest BABIP in the major leagues. Richie Sexson actually posted the lowest (.217), with Dave Ross (.228) coming in second. Some other low BABIP guys include John Buck, Jason Kendall, Dan Johnson, Adam Kennedy, and Andruw Jones.
BABIP is definitely a result born out of a collection of skills for a hitter (unlike with pitchers), as high contact/speed guys (Ichiro, for instance) will almost always post higher BABIPs than base-clogging sluggers. However, performance in batting average on balls in play is still influenced significantly by factors beyond the hitters control, and it’s not at all uncommon for players to experience wild swings in their BABIP from year to year.
In fact, if I was going to make a list of the most likely hitters to rebound in 2008, Richie Sexson, Ray Durham, and Andruw Jones would all be on the list. It’s no coincidence that all three guys appear to have fallen off a cliff in 2007, but had their performances significantly dragged down by extremely low BABIP rates. For a projection going forward, we should expect all three to perform significantly closer to their career average BABIP marks than their 2007 BABIP marks.
J.C. Bradbury actually built a model called PrOPS, or projected OPS, that essentially gives us an expected BA/OBP/SLG line that accounts for the variance in BABIP. According to PrOPS, Ray Durham “should have” hit .257/.332/.392, all significantly better than his actual ’07 performances. Sexson, by the way, should have hit .264/.346/.474, so PrOPS would suggest an even stronger rebound from Richie next year.
However, as you guys are probably sick of hearing, offense is only part of the story. The projected rebound by Sexson gives the Giants a valid reason to want to acquire him to serve as a power hitting first baseman that they’ve been missing for years, but the Mariners simply have too many 1B/DH guys on the roster as is, and one of them has to go. In Ray Durham, the team acquires a rebound candidate who offers extreme roster flexibility.
A natural second baseman, Durham would give the team a legitimate option to push Jose Lopez next year, hopefully motivating him into living up to his potential. However, Durham is also athletic enough to play multiple positions and fill the super-utility role that Mark McLemore made famous years ago. Durham’s made it clear that he’d be open to moving to another city if it gives him the chance to play everyday (the Giants would prefer to hand the second base job to youngster Kevin Frandsen), and entering into his contract year, it shouldn’t be too tall of a task to convince him to pick up additional positions to offer flexibility and added value.
As a switch-hitting 2B/3B/1B/LF/RF/DH candidate, Durham would offer McLaren all kinds of options in putting out a line-up. Jose Lopez is struggling? He plays second base, and the team doesn’t experience a huge dropoff. Adrian Beltre need a day off? No problem. Raul Ibanez’s hamstrings are acting up and the team’s facing a RH pitcher? Durham plays first base, with Ibanez sliding to DH. Jose Vidro hits like the no-power wuss we all think he is? That’s okay, because there’s a switch hitter with a better bat on the bench. Durham could easily get 300-400 at-bats playing six positions. Swapping Sexson for Durham clears a positional logjam while giving the Mariners another useful role-player and no long term financial commitment.
Durham also gives the team a potential platoon partner for new left fielder Geoff Jenkins (and yes, I’d rather have him in right with Jones in left, but I don’t think McLaren’s up for that). Jenkins is the classic Safeco Field hitter, an extreme-pull power lefty who could take advantage of Safeco’s short right field porch, much like Raul Ibanez has. The team badly needs another left-handed power hitter, and with Jose Guillen looking for big money on a multiyear contract, the Mariners can go back to the free agent well for a one year stopgap deal while evaluating how Wladimir Balentien develops in Tacoma. Jenkins is basically a better defensive version of Ibanez, offering basically the same offensive skillet but with actual range in the outfield. Like Ibanez, he can’t hit lefties, and would be best served rarely starting against southpaws. With Durham on the roster, this isn’t a problem, as Jenkins can be best used in his role of left-handed power hitter and deployed appropriately.
With Jenkins, Durham, and Jones essentially replacing Sexson, Broussard, and Guillen, the team gains significantly more flexibility in the daily line-up, allowing McLaren to give more rest to the everyday players without forcing Willie Bloomquist into regular action. The team also improves by leaps and bounds defensively, getting Ibanez and Guillen out of the outfield and replacing them with significantly better defenders. In Safeco Field, this is a big deal.
Ibanez is unlikely to be much defensively at first base, but this roster also presents options. If Durham adjusts to 1B as well as I expect, he becomes a legitimate option, as does Mike Morse against left-handers. Ibanez could easily slide to designated hitter with Jose Vidro getting relegated to pinch-hitter extraordinaire, and all of the sudden, a Durham-Lopez-Betancourt-Beltre-Jenkins-Ichiro-Jones defense goes from one of the leagues worst to something that should be above average, and potentially very good.
Overall, the offense should be similar to the 2007 version – overly aggressive, inconsistent, but about average in terms of scoring runs. The line-up depth makes up for some of the weakness in the middle, and by retaining Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien and storing them in Tacoma, the organization has some internal options in case a bat is needed at mid-season.
Now, to the pitching. I laid out the case for Bartolo Colon last week, and to me, this is the obvious move of the winter. I slotted him in for $10 million because I’ve historically underestimated the cost of free agents, but I think he could reasonably be had for $7-$10 million without a long term commitment. He gives the team a veteran, World Series tested arm with a track record, as well as adding another strikeout arm to a rotation that pitches to too much contact. If I could only make one move this winter, this would be it.
Behind Colon, I’d make Ryan-Rowland Smith the favorite for the #5 starter job heading into camp, making Cha Seung Baek and Brandon Morrow significantly outpitch him in March to beat him out. Rowland-Smith has the skillset that is perfectly aligned to Safeco Field, and is exactly the kind of pitcher who can fill innings at the back-end of a rotation just through throwing strikes and letting the home park do the rest. By improving the defense as well, RR-S can simply focus on putting the ball over the plate, and his three pitch repertoire should be good enough to be a capable fifth starter.
Baek makes the roster in the long reliever/6th starter role, offering a fill-in for any starters who need to skip a start, while Brandon Morrow heads to Tacoma to work on learning how to pitch. With a Tacoma rotation headed by Morrow-Feierabend-White-Rohrbaugh-Campillo, the team should have enough internal options behind Baek should they need to get some replacement starters from Triple-A during the year.
The core of the bullpen remains mostly unchanged, with only lefty Jeremy Affeldt as a newcomer. A local white kid who always loved the Mariners growing up and now has World Series experience, he fits in perfectly with the kind of player the organization loves to acquire. A groundball lefty with good enough stuff to miss bats and two breaking balls that keep both lefties and righties honest, he fits in well as a multi-inning middle reliever and a nice complement to Sean Green and George Sherrill. His command is his biggest weakness, but as Morrow showed last year, that can be somewhat overcome in relief if you keep the ball in the park (Affeldt does) and get your fair share of strikeouts. He also has experience as a starter and could be an option in the rotation if need be.
Mark Lowe is penciled in as a low leverage reliever, but this spot is basically up for grabs in spring training. If Kameron Mickolio and his 96 MPH fastball prove ready to get major league hitters out, I have no problem sending Lowe back to Tacoma to get some work. Low leverage innings are perfect for guys like Lowe or Mickolio, who can simply work on gaining experience against major league hitters without being put in critical game situations to begin the year.
So that’s the roster, and including the money being paid to San Francisco as part of the Sexson deal, the team comes in at about $105 million for 2008, with $47 million of that coming off the books after next season, giving the team significant financial flexibility going forward.
Here’s the basic expectations for this team compared to the 2007 model.
1. Significantly improved defense, especially in the outfield. Having three guys capable of chasing down flyballs, two of whom are good enough to play center, should improve the run prevention by 20-30 runs.
2. Improved left-handed power in the line-up. Jenkins gives the team another LH bat, making it harder for teams with RH heavy rotations (such as the Angels) to just shut down the offense.
3. Better roster flexibility. Durham and Morse give the team the ability to platoon if desire, and Durham’s potential to play five positions on the field while providing decent offensive production gives the team options when guys are hurting or need a day off.
4. A somewhat better rotation. Batista and Washburn are both candidates to take a step back, but that should be mitigated by Colon and Rowland-Smith improving the back end, and Felix’s potential to take a big leap forward is still a wild card.
5. More depth. With Clement, Balentien, and Morrow hanging out in Tacoma at the beginning of the year, the team has talented options in case an internal solution is needed to an unforseen problem (or a forseen problem, such as Jose Vidro being terrible) and valuable trade chips if the team is contending in the summer.
Now, despite those strengths, I’ll be the first to admit that this isn’t a great team, an 80-85 win roster that could get to 92-95 if absolutely everything breaks right. However, if the Angels sign A-Rod and Bonds, we’re hosed, because this team isn’t going to keep up with Los Angeles in that case. But I’d argue that if LA goes for broke, we’re hosed no matter what, and this plan at least keeps the nucleus of a potential contender in place beyond 2008 without saddling the team with any more long term contracts.
For $105 million, perhaps we should be able to get more than “we might contend if the Angels don’t sign A-Rod”, but considering the constraints this roster and an 88 win season put in place, I think this is a viable plan to put a quality team on the field next year without sacrificing the future of the franchise in an ill-fated attempt to win at all costs.
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133 Responses to “Dave’s Offseason Plan, v.2007”
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I want the idealistic scenario! I think I’ll like that one better…
I like the Jenkins idea, I was just thinking about him earlier today looking at FAs. Maybe if we pick up the whole difference between Richie and Durham the Giants will throw Lowry in. That would be awesome.
I like this team better than the 2007 team, but I still worry about the back end of that rotation.
So you managed not to trade Balentien yet – I would guess his destiny is still elsewhere in the end, no? Maybe not this offseason, but he’d remain our most marketable prospect at the trade deadline.
A really interesting post.
I am in agreement that Sexson has the potential to be a comeback player of the year. But Sexson really needs to be a DH.
Too bad there is no way to get rid of Vidro. He clogs up the DH/1B area.
I like that you are doing two offseason plans this year. This is basically a best-case-scenario for the coming M’s offseason – smart moves within stupid constraints. I think Jenkins would be a great short-term pick-up, and like turning Sexson into Durham. I seriously wonder, though, if the M’s think they have their Durham in Bloomquist.
Considering the looming free agent pool, I’m intrigued as to how much better the ideal offseason plan can be. Well, I guess there’s A-rod. And Bonds.
Do we have any analysis on players with low BABIP who were FA’s and a)who signed them and b) how they did? It would be interesting to see which teams follow this sort of strategy and how it played out.
I would be fairly content if the M’s started 2008 with that roster.
Dave,
Have the Brewers already declined the $9 mil option that they have on Jenkins?
yup–
“Geoff Jenkins’ $9 million option was declined Tuesday by the Milwaukee Brewers, making the left fielder eligible for free agency.
“Based on the free agent landscape, there’s very few left-handed power hitters on the market this season,” [his agent] Damon Lapa said. “As far as corner outfielders with left-handed pop, scarcity is obviously a thing that generally benefits the player.”
When do the free agent rankings come out? Do you expect any of these pick-ups to be Type A free agents? I don’t think so, but…
heh
“Miguel Batista is a quality pitcher who Arizona let go because of their cost cutting maneuvers. With Safeco Field keeping the balls in the park, he’d be a perfect fit. Also has great stuff to come out of the bullpen if young pitchers step up and demand a look.” – Dave Cameron @13 Nov, 2003
I know we have Bavasi, but I would hope we would get more from the Giants for $4.5 mil and Sexson…
Awesome, awesome, awesome, awesome.
Seriously — this is about as close to the ideal 2008 roster as I could come up with myself, considering the constraints within the franchise (manager, GM, execs, team philosophy, etc…). Honestly, I’d be ecstatic if these were the moves that were made by this front office this offseason.
The scary thing is, too, with Jenkins being a local boy, he may not be totally repulsed by the thoughts of playing in Seattle.
It’s nice to think about the ideal, of course, but it’s tougher to deal with reality. The coolest thing about this plan is it really isn’t far-fetched, and would actually likely improve the team.
But I still think you have to account for the reality of Bavasi making 1-2 completely bone-headed moves every offseason. Surely Baltimore has some crappy, expensive RP they’d want to dump on us for Broussard (who would probably turn into a decent hitter at Camden Yards…) — and McLaren would, in turn, throw that crappy RP into every possible high-leverage situation…
4: I can’t imagine the Mariners have any delusions about Willie’s offensive prowess, could they? If they did, wouldn’t they have used him to cover 2B more, rather than Vidro.
Maybe this is a stupid question, but if we don’t want Vidro (which I don’t), and we expect Sexson to rebound (which I’m not actually too optimistic about), can’t we get rid of Vidro by throwing some money out there with him, just like Sexson? Obviously we don’t get all the things that Durham brings to the table, so maybe that’s not as good of an idea. Thoughts?
Isn’t Ichiro’s salary 12M since 5M/year is deferred?
But Baltimore already gave us Parrish…By the way Dave, do we release Parrish or keep him in AAA?
Dave, I have many questions, but my first is: “What’s your read on how the Mariners look at Balentein? How much do you think they value him? What do they seem him as?”
Okay, three questions.
“see him as”
13: you’re probably right. They seem to be smarter about him now than in the past. But since we’re not talking about a starting position but rather a super-sub, I think scrappy white local kid still gets some bonus points from the front office in a head-to-head comparison with Durham. That still might not be enough to overcome Durham’s superior talent.
Dave, I noticed that Jose Guillen is not in your plan, which is fine by me. I assume that he will be looking at a contract worth at least 35 mil. over three to four years. He has his uses, but Jenkins and Jones are better fits at a nicer cost.
So you managed not to trade Balentien yet – I would guess his destiny is still elsewhere in the end, no? Maybe not this offseason, but he’d remain our most marketable prospect at the trade deadline.
I’ll trade him in the non-realistic post.
I seriously wonder, though, if the M’s think they have their Durham in Bloomquist.
They’ve had ample opportunities to give him lots of at-bats the last few years and have passed. I think that, at this point, they realize he’s just a pinch-runner.
Do we have any analysis on players with low BABIP who were FA’s and a)who signed them and b) how they did? It would be interesting to see which teams follow this sort of strategy and how it played out.
J.C. Bradbury’s done a bunch of studies on PrOPS (which is basically the same thing as low BABIP regression) and found that, as a group, the guys who under perform bounce back quite a bit.
Maybe this is a stupid question, but if we don’t want Vidro (which I don’t), and we expect Sexson to rebound (which I’m not actually too optimistic about), can’t we get rid of Vidro by throwing some money out there with him, just like Sexson?
Vidro can’t play the field, which limits potential suitors to just AL teams who need a DH. Now, of that list, how many want to fill that spot with a guy who has no power? The answer – none. We’re stuck with him.
Isn’t Ichiro’s salary 12M since 5M/year is deferred?
Their actual payout will be $12 million, but in MLB accounting terms, he’ll count $17 million against the books.
But Baltimore already gave us Parrish…By the way Dave, do we release Parrish or keep him in AAA?
I’d release him just on principle.
What’s your read on how the Mariners look at Balentein? How much do you think they value him? What do they seem him as?â€
A talented but flawed kid with one distinct skill that isn’t ready for the majors. They like him enough to keep him around, but they don’t see him as part of a core nucleus going forward. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was traded this winter, nor would I be surprised if he spent all of next year in Tacoma.
I think this is a very good plan within the context of what’s realistic, Dave. Great job, as always.
It continues to irk me that a primary consideration in any offseason planning has to be the huge blinders that this organization willingly wears, but that’s not this discussion.
I like the idea of Durham, too; it’s a way to feasibly trade Sexson’s contract without a huge money disparity AND you might get back a player who had a very down season last year but projects to possibly bounce back.
Do you think, Dave, that this is a move that the M’s could make and still keep him in the role you describe, or will they be unable to manage the press’s expectations that a guy making $7.5 million a year should be starting every game at a consistent position?
It’s the kind of innovative move that I hope the M’s are looking at, in any case.
And, as stated in previous threads, I am completely behind the acquisition of Barrrrrrrtolo Colon, as long as the bidding doesn’t get crazy, which I don’t believe it will.
Seems like a reasonable assessment of what might happen.
Interestingly, of all the years since Bavasi took over, this is the year that his hands are the most tied. What that says, I think, is that 2007, and perhaps 2008, will be the “peak” of the Bavasi years. His biggest long-term contracts – Beltre, Sexson, Washburn, Vidro, Batista, Ibanez, Johjima – are, with one or two exceptions, going to be bad contracts starting very soon. A few guys might improve – Betancourt, Lopez, Jones, Felix – but this is likely to be balanced by the declines of the old guys.
This is the best Bavasi has the capacity to do with a $105M payroll…
Best case scenario: the Mariners enact this plan, all of the moves backfire, the M’s win 75 games and Bavasi is left on the sidelines next year eating his hat.
Then, Antonetti gets hired in 09, flush with $47 million to play with and sets into motion the makings of a dynasty that extends to the end of the 20-teen’s.
I can go for Colon at $10/1. I just am dubious you can get him for just a year. Given the way the pitching market has gone lately, and the pool of talent available this year, it’s hard to believe there isn’t a team out there that won’t be willing to go more years. And added years add a lot of risk and payroll inflexibility, and I don’t want that. But hey, can’t hurt to try.
Dave knows a lot more than I – and I hope he is right, but I will not be surprised if Colon and or Jenkins receive 2 year plus an option year deal OR a 3 year deal at slightly less per year that Dave suggests for the 1 year deal.
Then, Antonetti gets hired in 09, flush with $47 million to play with and sets into motion the makings of a dynasty that extends to the end of the 20-teen’s.
Except, of course, Antonetti would have to decline the Cardinals’ GM job, if he’s offered it…
Dave,
I like this as a realistic plan, pretty much. I think you do a good job of putting something together that allows you to change the names a bit on some of the moves, but keep in place the concept of the “type of guy” the team should seek for those moves in place (free agent starting pitching excepted, I am not sure there is another guy in Colon’s position out there in FA).
My biggest attraction is to #3 and #5. Two things that stuck out among the good teams in the playoffs were depth and flexibility. Almost all of them had some member of the team out for a good chunk of the season, only to be replaced with somebody who did a serviceable to good job as the replacement. Good teams make it through unexpected injuries to starters. That cannot happen without some depth.
The Red Sox also stood out in having good pinch hit options, and the ability to make sufficient adjustments to adapt to NL play (the problem was too many decent hitters for too few spots, actually). The Red Sox, Indians and Diamondbacks all had enough depth to weather serious injuries or poor performance by a guy or two. The difference between these clubs and the M’s I suspect will be the willingness to pull the trigger even if our depth improves. Nonetheless, the M’s have been one of the lesser teams in terms of roster flexibility, and your plan remedies the problem to a decent degree at least on paper – and maybe in reality if the manager can follow through.
Jenkins likely will get a multi-year deal — last year, Aubrey Huff (3/$20m) and Dave Roberts (3/$18m ) got three-year deals — but $8 million for 2008 sounds about right.
The Brewers had a chance to keep Jenkins under team control for $9 million and decided not to. I guarantee you that they called every team in baseball to gauge interest in Jenkins as a $9 million player for 2008 – if there were teams interested at the price, they’d have picked up the option and traded him.
Now, it’s possible that the Brewers just totally misread the market, but I doubt it.
Dave, this is why I read this blog. To learn stuff. I’m not totally ready to drink the Kool-Aid on Jenkins, but now I’m thinking…very interesting!
John
I think this is a very good plan given the assumptions and constraints Dave is working under. I like the idea of adding Colon and Jenkins, and if Durham is the best we can get to unload Sexson and break the 1B/DH logjam, I’m on board with that as well. My question for Dave is, would you expand the budget if it turns out that Colon and/or Jenkins can’t be had for the figures you’re using, or would you look for other players at roughly those prices? It seems to me that this regime has a history of underestimating the market and then when they lose out on their targets they spend the money they budgeted on less than savory alternatives. Since you’re trying to work within the context of the people who are in place, I think you’ve got to take into account their tendency to misjudge the market and assume they’ll be caught by surprise yet again. What should they do when that happens?
durham – no
colon – no
jenkins – maybe
i read the piece on colon and i understand where you are coming from but no no no no!! i’d rather trade for a young major league ready prospect and have him work himself into the rotation. and as for the sexson/ durham deal, if that’s all we get, then we’ve done a bad job. there is no reason we should have to give more than 2 million to a team for him, if that. i’d rather see them move a prospect and sexson for someone better than durham and save some money. i’ve said this before, i’d like to see them push the reds for a dunn for sexson and prospect. i know the reds have votto and he might be ready b
#32: You value Sexson far more than anyone else.
Who’s trading their young major league ready pitching prospects?
I’m glad to see I’m not the only one who thinks Morse deserves a shot, at least in a reserve role.
Whoever we get off of SF, I think it’s a good bet to say the M’s will do some trading with them this winter. Durham hadn’t occurred to me–I’d hope we could pry some pitching loose from them–but the media/fans/team is really down on him, so I wouldn’t be surprised at that move. And they seem fairly positive on Sexson, so Richie..pack your bags! (Assuming the shoulder can lift the suitcase.)
Now, it’s possible that the Brewers just totally misread the market, but I doubt it.
Or the other teams, accurately suspecting that the Brewers would pass on exercising the option, did not want to give up anything of value to acquire him and then pay him $9 million. He is not going to get 3 years/$27m, but I bet he gets at least two years and eight figures.
“Who’s trading their young major league ready pitching prospects?”
Yes! And whom would we trade to aquire them?
I think sometimes people (here and in general) don’t realize that the landscape for baseball trades has changed in the last few years. There seem to be FAR fewer teams trading off 3 great prospects for one year or half a year of a vet. Even with Atlanta trading Salty they traded from a position of strength. McCann is awesome. Perhaps due to Oakland’s success or Boston’s, teams are hording prospects and digging deeper than before. The market to con some team out of their budding, young stud starter is done and gone (if it was ever here at all).
If you’re a team interested in Geoff Jenkins, and you’re presented with the following two options:
A. Give up a low-upside prospect (Robert Rohrbaugh, or something similar) and get the guy you want.
B. Keep your low-upside prospect, then try to convince Jenkins to sign with your team for multiple years and a higher dollar amount guarantee.
Which of those are you going to choose? A comes with cost certainty, no competition, and a short-term commitment, while B gives you the chance to get the guy you want without bidding for him in an open market scenario.
I’m also intrigued by the semi-love for Ryan Rowland Smith. He looked pretty serviceable to me, but he certainly was unheralded. Dave, what do you think is a realistic projection for him going forward? Is he likely to have a decent career as a back of the rotation starter? And do you think the M’s will really give him a chance instead of Morrow, who obviously gets a lot more attention from the media?
So Balentien is in Tacoma again and RRS is a starter? You’ve been saying the opposite about those two all along… And what happened to picking up a D-Rays pitcher?
Come on guys. Think about it. Dave has done is homework as usual, and is probably right. While I question if Colon or Jenkins will get a multi year deal…that deal will be for roughly 2 for $15 or 3 for $20….way too many questions about either of these guys to give big dollar long contracts to…even for Bavasi.
durham – no
colon – no
jenkins – maybe, but he gets more than a one year deal without a question. he’ll get 2 or 3 at 6-7 per at least and take that over a 1 year deal. if we could get him for one year i’d do it, good call, maybe a mutal option for the second year (at say 10) if he rebounds!
affeldt – makes sense
we can do better for sexson without a doubt.
colon is not worth a one year deal at 10 mill. i know he’ll get it but let’s spend it somewhere else.
LET’S GET BEDARD!!
as i said earlier today, i say we trade balentien and a high level pitching prospect to the orioles for Bedard. we could then sign him to a deal and have felix and bedard for years to come. perfect 1-2 punch for our staff. the orioles need outfielders (if they dont sign patterson) and would rather do it for cheap. they will always need pitching and a feiereband may do it. i’d at least look at it before wasting 10 mill on colon. You might even be able to send Sexson to Baltimore. They have Millar but I know they’d take the chance on a one year flier if we chipped in maybe 3-5 mill. He could also DH. If we could land Bedard, and rid ourselves of Sexson that way, we’d be set. Baltimore is at least a year away and if we gave them 2-3 players and some cash they might move him. i’ve heard the rumors around here (i live in baltimore.)
my concern with this idea is that we are going to waste cash on “maybe” veterans so we can look toward the future in a year. why not start that process now. if you are going to move some one Sexson or Broussard to the giants. try to get lowry. he’s dropped considerably but could be netted for broussard (though thats asking a lot). he could fill the void for them at first base as they rebuild for cheap.
i feel that if we could have a rotation of
felix
bedard
washburn
batista
rowland-smith/ lowry
thats not bad and gets better next year
if we had an lineup of
ichiro cf
jones rf
beltre 3b
jenkins lf
ibanez 1b
johjima c
vidro dh
lopez 2b
betancourt ss
i like how that works. if we could pick up some 1 year deals on some bench players we could have something here. i’m not saying we are contending but we’d still have some free cash heading into ’09.
“they realize he’s just a pinch-runner”
I love the idea of paying a million bucks a year to a pinch-runner.
Well, when you have Vidro, Sexson, Broussard, and a couple catchers on your team…you need a damn good pinch runner.
#42: What “high-level pitching prospect” do the M’s have in their system? Aumont?
Dave-
I love Jenkins as a guy who can fill a Mariner need and may not be as pricey as the other options out there.
If his agent comes back and says that he’s looking for at least a two-year deal, and you think he’ll actually get it somewhere (hello, Baltimore), how high would you go on a two- or three-year contract? Is two years at $15-$16 million too much of a risk to bear?
And I’d do that Affeldt deal in two seconds if I were Seattle. That just completes a bullpen where pretty much everyone has nasty stuff.
45- i’m saying a feiereband could do the trick. he could be a starter for baltimore. they are moving young….real young
#47
That won’t do the trick. I would love Bedard but he’d cost an arm and a leg.
42 You do realize that this post was in the context of being realistic. Bedard isn’t going anywhere unless Angelos has been smoking crack with Marion Barry.
I’m all for the Jenkins and Affeldt signings only if the Elias rankings don’t put them more than a Type B free. Perhaps, it’s undervaluing Sexson to some degree. Overall, this is probably what I’d expect from the M’s as well. However, I expect Colon to turn more into a beanbag chair than his former self.
49 – read whats out there. bedard may be the one they move to reload. McPhail is going to be busy making moves to get younger. though bedard is a rock, he’ll bring in the best prospects. angelos will have to scale back now if he wants to have any shred of respect in baltimore (though i’m not sure if he still does!) i think it could happen for the right price
48 – feiereband, balentien and maybe someone else may do it. those are two guys that could (and i do say could) be in the o’s lineup next year. if we threw in maybe a rob johnson or matt clement (i’d hate to see it) it might work.
and you think Balentien would constitute ‘reloading’ to the Os?
cebo is funny.
What about going after Torii Hunter and moving Ichi back to Right. He’d be worth $50m for 10, which I understand is what he is looking for. At least then, we won’t have two lefties who can’t hit lefties and a much better outfield. Thoughts?
Any package in which Balentien is the best player is not enough to get a team to trade away an outstanding lefty who’s under control for the next two years.
why am i funny? why not check in on it. tell me that it’s not a possibility. my feeling is that as far as left handed pitching goes, bedard is one of the best, is young, and is not too far from free agency. there have been rumblings that they may move him for prospects that could play major league baseball soon. baltimore needs young players to invest in and if we gave them a pitcher, catcher and outfield that could potentially start for them for next year, why wouldnt they consider it. is it that much of a stretch? what do you think it would take to land bedard?
Can we all stop responding to that guy, please? If he wants to live in some parallel universe, that’s his deal.
#53
Torii’s probably getting $12-$15 million for 4-7 years. Great player but I’d probably prefer Jenkins for one year in the grand scheme. And would Hunter even want to play in Seattle?
i do apologize if that seems unrealistic. i’m not trying to be ridiculous, i’m just trying to see what it would take. i dont agree with the colon idea so i’m trying something else.
what would it take?
I dunno. Cleveland got Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee & Lee Stevens for Colon….
well then forget bedard, forget it ever happened….geez. i’m just thinking of other pitching options. colon to me seems a waste, even if he does well for another team. i think we can spend 10 million in a better way. but please dont throw out a post that includes players not on the cleveland roster
what would it take?
Probably Clement, Adam Jones, and Tillman, if you want honesty. So please, let it rest. Bedard is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and it would take just as much to acquire him for two years as it would Santana for one year (if not more).
So hey, what’s the story on Curt Schilling? If he could be had on a two-year deal, would USSM endorse such a thing? Is he going to command more than a two-year pact, and if so, what’s the max that you’d go on acquiring him? I like the Colon idea, but I’m simply looking at alternatives. Randy Wolf comes to mind as a fave of mine, but he’s probably even more risky than Colon right now, so I see where he may not be a great investment. Thoughts?
dave, other than colon, what would be your next pitching prize? would lowry be something we could get? it doesnt seem like it would take much. i know its a weak market for pitching and we are definitely looking to the future, but where else could we go? i’d rather take a flier on a young guy at a cheap price that we could conceivably have for 2 years.
Schilling won’t sign here. He put up a list of teams he’d consider on his blog, and it didn’t include Seattle.
One thing I also like about this is that it limits the contract exposure if 2008 goes sour and the team decides to clean house in the front office. A three-year deal for Affeldt doesn’t break the bank, and everything else is a one-year contract.
I do think it will take at least a two-year deal to get Colon. But the more I think about it, the more I think Jenkins really could be had for a one-year deal if the alternative is something like two years for $10-$12 million. I don’t think he’ll get that crazy free agent money — maybe two years at $13 million if a couple of teams show interest? If that’s the best he’s presented with, he might feel he’s better off taking a one-year deal somewhere that offers him a chance to play every day.
Man, it sure would be tough to be a GM for a major sports team outside of the popular cities. To have a good amount of money at your disposal and still not even have a chance at signing certain free agents because they won’t even give you the time of day… phew! It sucks that Schilling wouldn’t even give us a chance, but to each his own.
Is the $105 million budget what we can likely expect from the M’s in ’08? Is there any chance in a bump upwards in the budget? I’m greedy and want Colon AND Wolf.
today at the parade Schilling was hinting about a 1-year deal with Boston, then retirement.
i like the wolf thought. liked it since the list of free agents had been talked about. i’m guessing the dodgers dont exercise his option and he’s available. though he is an injury risk he is 4 years younger and in a little better shape than colon. if it came down to either colon or wolf, i’d like to see wolf. he could be something that could last longer than one year.
Who’s trading their young major league ready pitching prospects?
Tampa Bay?
today at the parade Schilling was hinting about a 1-year deal with Boston, then retirement.
Watching him pitch his game in the WS, that’s exactly what I was thinking he might do. He doesn’t have a lot left, and he’s built up a lot of goodwill in Boston. If he’s only looking at one more year (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses a start here or there at that) he’s going to want to be on a team with a shot to go back for another ring, and there really isn’t another team with better odds.
I’m all for the Jenkins and Affeldt signings only if the Elias rankings don’t put them more than a Type B free.
Jenkins shouldn’t matter, since the Brewers have already passed on him. Affeldt was good enough this year, but bad enough in 2006, that he should miss Type A. And I’m pretty sure Bavasi will be quite aware of such issues, as not giving up compensation picks for free agents has been a theme of his.
You’d have to think the Tigers would be interested in Jenkins, too–assuming they miss out on/aren’t interested in Rodriguez and/or Bonds.
I’m quite shocked the Brewers didn’t pick that contract up.
Hey Dave – could you please discuss the difference between signing Jenkins and Fukudome? Fukudome would certainly cost more, but do you think he would be worth the increased cost? I think he would hit as well, if not better, than Jenkins, while providing better defense. What are your thoughts?
Jurgen,
I’m confused as to why the Tigers would want Jenkins. Where do they play him? They’ve got Maybin, Ordonez, and Granderson in the outfield. Sheffield is their DH. Granderson is already left handed and needs to be platooned. Where does Jenkins fit in?
I’m also intrigued by the semi-love for Ryan Rowland Smith. He looked pretty serviceable to me, but he certainly was unheralded. Dave, what do you think is a realistic projection for him going forward? Is he likely to have a decent career as a back of the rotation starter? And do you think the M’s will really give him a chance instead of Morrow, who obviously gets a lot more attention from the media?
Rowland-Smith has three pitches, is left-handed, throws strikes, and is an extreme flyball guy. That’s basically the recipe for the kind of guy who can succeed in Safeco Field, even if he’s not that good. Jarrod Washburn says hello.
To me, RR-S is a replacement level starting pitcher. His stuff is okay, not great, and as a guy who pitches up in the zone, he’s going to give up his fair share of longballs. However, Safeco will minimize his flaws, and a good outfield defense plus the park could lead to 150-180 good enough innings. For the league minimum, that’s fine.
There’s very little upside there, and I don’t think Rowland-Smith is any kind of long term answer, but as a left-handed Ryan Franklin, he’s good enough to slot in as the #5 starter and worry about other issues this winter.
And yea, I think he’ll get a legit look. I expect Morrow to implode as a starter in Peoria, and even the Mariners aren’t going to take the young guy who needs a lot of work over the guy who can actually help them next year.
So Balentien is in Tacoma again and RRS is a starter? You’ve been saying the opposite about those two all along… And what happened to picking up a D-Rays pitcher?
I’ve been saying Balentien will spend 2008 in Tacoma or be traded all along. And I’ve barely talked about RR-S as a starter at all.
As for the Tampa pitchers, remember, this is working within the constraints of the current organizational structure.
Good Analysis Dave, I think you made up the best ‘realistic’ scenario that will happen this offseason. Yes Durham or Colon wouldn’t be most people’s idealistic picks, but they fit the organization’s philosphy with veteraness and etc, and they still have some good stuff, also won’t have to give up anything for them. I could possibly see Mariners picking up Jenkins too. He would be a veteran that MacLaren can go to so they can keep Ibanez from setting foot on the outfield. Affeldt seems like a reasonable pick up, also a veteran Mac can go to without seeing them implode.
Dave, which of any prospects in the Baltimore system that you would choose for Broussard and why?
Durham? Emphatis Yes.
Morrow, AAA, over Rowland-Smith? Uhhh… Rowland-Smith, IMHO, has career-middle relief in his DNA; Morrow’s got enough potential as a starter that he’s got to be given first crack at the job.
Knowing the Mariners, even R-S is even mediocre, he’ll have ‘earned his spot’ and no amount of talent can displace him.
I’m kind of intrigued by Torii Hunter just from the aspect of having a Jones-Hunter-Ichiro outfield. It would harken back to 2003 when Cameron, Suzuki, and they guy we traded Lou for (can’t believe his name is escaping me right now). Anyway, I know that it probably wouldn’t make much sense to sign Hunter, but that OF would be spectacular to watch . . .
Other than the obvious answers…they’re the M’s, Bavasi is our GM, and because of this, we were not ready to decide / don’t have a plan / too dumb to realize he is lefthanded w/ power……WHY did the M’s NOT TRADE for Jenkins?
arbeck,
I’m not sure Maybin starts the year in Detroit.
I think the best we can really hope for is that for once our shoddy FO can take advantage of an even shoddier one. The two that come to mind immediately are San Fran and Baltimore. I’d love to use Sexson to get Lowry, and if we have to pay some of Richie’s salary, fine. If we have to take Durham back, fine. But I think Lowry would be an awesome fit.
I also love the Bedard idea. I don’t want to give up AJ though, so if that’s the price then forget it. The only other guy who I’d consider close to untouchable is Triunfel. But I’ve seen rumblings about Bedard being available too, and have seen enough questionable moves out of Baltimore the last few years that I wouldn’t call it out of the question. Maybe Wlad, Clement, Tillman, and Tui gets it done… You just never know. It would certainly be worth a phone call.
Just to be clear: Noah Lowry sucks, Richie Sexon has no trade value, and building an offseason plan around hoping that another team makes a stupid move means you have a bad plan.
Ponies for everyone!
throw in a bag of gingersnaps and you’ve got a deal.
Dave, did you ask your sources about Sexson’s health. Mine (no doubt less informed than yours) say his injury may be career-ending.
#81: It’s funny how many people place high value on a pitcher solely on the basis of a) being under 30; and b) having recorded double digits in wins a couple of years before.
See also: “Ramirez, Horacio.”
I’m quite shocked the Brewers didn’t pick that contract up.
The Brewers have a lot of young, cheap, good outfielders around.
Bill Hall, Corey Hart, Ryan Braun (who needs to be moved to the outfield, but I guess they’ll give him another year), Kevin Mench, Gabe Gross, Tony Gwynn, Jr. Some of these guys aren’t ideal, but I can see why he isn’t a fit for that team anymore.
I think this is a pretty reasonable — and plausible — plan. I like that it’s a deeper, more flexible team, with Durham and Morse as guys who might actually get reasonable playing time — and minimize Bloomquist’s time at the plate. I like that it adds a left-handed bat to the regular lineup. I like that it improves the everyday defense.
I love the Colon signing, figuring he’s the most available middle-of-the-rotation-type starter out there. Yes, you’re taking a chance with his shoulder and his conditioning, but you take a chance with all pitchers. And I agree with Dave that if the Mariners make only one move all winter that this would be it. (Adding a left-handed hitting outfielder with some power would be number two.)
My only reservation is the Affeldt addition. I think 3 yr/$9 M is overpaying. I would probably find a league-average fifth starter at 1 yr/$3-5 M and keep Rowland-Smith as my long man in the pen. But that’s just me.
I’ll be interested to see Dave’s other plan, but frankly, this could be close to what the Mariners actually do.
Which of those are you going to choose? A comes with cost certainty, no competition, and a short-term commitment, while B gives you the chance to get the guy you want without bidding for him in an open market scenario.
If it is common knowledge that no one else is biting at Jenkins for $9 million next year, you have no reason to pay the $9 million and give a semi-useful part because you pretty much know the market’s bottom line. If you trade for him, you are stuck using up $9 million of your 2008 budget. But if you wait until free agency, you can negotiate a lower 2008 salary or structure the deal however you want. And if Jenkins is really the guy you want, you know that $9 million will go a long way to locking him up for two or more years.
The other thing to consider is that this is outset of the offseason, when every team still has their Plan A in tact. Even the teams that like Jenkins probably do not have him as their Plan A. But as the Plan A’s start to fall apart once free agency begins (only one team is going to sign Fukudome), Plan B’s like Jenkins become more attractive. At this point in time last year, I doubt Cleveland thought that it would take three years to get Dave Delluci or Baltimore thought it would need to sign Aubrey Huff, much less Huff for three years. Setting a special case like Bonds aside, once Fukudome goes, Jenkins is probably the most attractive of the remaining corner outfielders. The recent free agent history suggests he will get a multiyear deal.
Morrow’s got enough potential as a starter that he’s got to be given first crack at the job.
He’ll get a first crack when he turns that potential into actually knowing how to pitch well enough to start. Throwing one pitch in the high 90s with only a vague idea of where it’s going is not enough. So yeah, that first crack will come, but it won’t be in ’08. It may not be in ’09. Of course it’s possible he won’t learn enough other pitches to be a starter, but if he masters his control he might have an upside as the next Putz. I guess you could do worse than grooming a new closer every couple of years and flipping the previous guy for prospects.
(Man, you look at Lincecum and Miller and that picking-to-keep-Selig-happy thing just looks worse and worse.)
So, if it takes a 2 year deal to land Jenkins or Colon, do you still do it?
I don’t see why not.
77 – Randy Winn – Probably the best trade the franchise has ever made. Gave up nothing they weren’t gonna lose already and got a serviceable right fielder.
I’m not sure why you would prefer trading Sexson away rather than Ibanez. Yeah, sure, if we could get some salary relief for Sexson, that would be a good thing. But sending money away with him, while at the same time taking on another bad contract, isn’t really giving you any salary relief at all. You mentioned yourself that Sexson is bound to rebound next year, while Ibanez, considering his age and the above better-than-expected seasons he’s had the last couple of years, looks all the world like a player at big risk to drop off dramatically. He also would be likely to bring back more in trade right now than Sexson, especially when you consider his very affordable salary.
A classic example of when to employ the principal “buy low, sell high”. You hear that all the time when people talk about baseball trading philosophies, but when it comes down to actually doing it, then they do an about-face. They want to keep the player that has been doing well for them recently, and get rid of the player that hasn’t.
Sexson next year is likely to outperform Ibanez, and it could be by quite a bit. Keep the player that’s going to be better, and trade the player that’s going to bring you the most back in return.
Unless we can assume that this is, like you say, how the Mariners might do things, and you’re going to cover this in your version of how things should go.
#93: The problem is that:
a) we don’t know for sure that Sexson will rebound;
b) the money he’ll make next year isn’t worth the gamble you’d take to find out;
c) any rebound he’d make would be masked in large part by Safeco, a field to which he’s particularly ill-suited;
d) Ibanez’s decline, if it happens, is likely to be masked in equal measure by his bat’s strong fit with Safeco;
e) all bets are of when it comes to Ibanez, anyway; smart people using smart data have been predicting his downfall since 2003, and while he’s not as good a player as he was then, he’s still a pretty decent hitter. He might suddenly fall off a cliff in 2008. Or it might not happen until 2011. I think all we can know about Raul right now is what we don’t know.
#94
a) Saying that we don’t know if Sexson will rebound really isn’t very worthwhile. After all, we really don’t know what any player will do, now, do we? All we can go on is expectation, and the expectation is that Sexson will have a strong season next year.
b) Baseball contracts are gauranteed, so we’re stuck with Sexson’s contract, whether we like it or not.
c) I’m not even sure what that means. Both Ibanez and Sexson’s number’s have been “masked” by Safeco the last three years, so every thing is relative, isn’t it?
e) That’s the exact reason Ibanez is at big risk to drop off. He’s been having unusually good seasons for a guy that’s in his mid thirties. You could, I suppose, assume that he’s just a late bloomer, one of those incredibly rare players that hit their peak in their mid thirties. It’s far more likely though, that he’s just been enjoying the benefit of some fortuitous random occurence that have pumped up his numbers, making him look better than his real talent level. If that’s true, and since he is almost certainly in a decline phase right now and his talent level will drop more next year, if his numbers revert back to a level that more closely represents his true talent level, he’s going to experience a big drop-off.
We don’t really know how these players are going to do. We only have expectation from which to go on.
Dave,
Minor point on Geoff Jenkins but if they picked up that option, he would have 5/10 rights and could veto a trade.
Regardless of what moves the Mariners make, I’m going to lock onto this and never let go:
Next year, the Mariners will have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and it will be ridiculously cheap.
(Which begs the question, if the Mariners are only spending five or six million on their bullpen, how are they managing to sink so much money with the rest of the team?)
Great article.
A. Love a Ray Durham trade, but I dont know about durham/sexson. Durham is a player, great team guy. Sexson’s whining, self-pity, and uninterested defense put me off him. But, your lineup has no power threat, Jones is only 30 hr guy there.
2. No way Colon signs for 1 year 10 million. That is fantasy. Might get him for minimum 2 years/$26 with an option. The market says Meche is more than $10 in 2006, with more pitchers were available that year, Meche couldnt carry Bartolo’s quarter pounder with cheese.
III. The ultimate Safeco player is Adam Dunn. He can be had. Gee whiz he would make this lineup better. Jenkins wouldnt.
D. Geoff Jenkins … yawn, scratch, yawn …
5.0.0 I know this is very un-USSMARINER, and not very geeky, but the Reds are looking to deal Jr. Not a nostalgia thing, but ….
Six. Love the Morrow to AAA. Dead on. And Leave him there until he develops a third pitch, else we end up with Gil Meche 2, a two and a half pitch guy.
i understand why there is a chance that colon has a bounce back year. i am just blown away as to why so many people are on board. i thought the post on him was interesting but he is still 35, extremely overweight and coming off two years of not pitching well and pitching only 145 innings. i know he’s just 3 years removed from being the al cy young but it just seems like we are overvaluing this guy. could it be that this guys body finally caught up with the workload he’s been putting in over the years?
Adam Dunn is indeed the ultimate Safeco player. Note:
1. Strikes out to end the first inning with extreme frequency;
2. Hits beautiful warning track shots with runners in scoring position, but hits them high enough for any fielder to get under them;
3. Believes that there is no such thing as a “routine” fly ball;
4. Has a bloated contract.
The more I think about it, the more he sounds like a perfect Bavasi acquisition. (In truth, though, Ned Coletti has a crush on him, and any trade consideration would cost the M’s way too much.) Junior? The deal works only if the Reds throw in both halves of his hamstring and a tube of super glue.
Truly, though, I’m for the Jenkins signing if we can keep it to one or two years. Lowry seems serviceable, if less-than-exciting. But Colon? I can’t get on board with this one. “Tested” sometimes just means “worn out.” And here’s my one Hot Stove Nightmare prediction: Bavasi signs Kyle Lohse for 3 years. (Really, I know this one’s going to happen. I hate it. Everyone should hate it. But it’s going to happen. I’m just telling you now.)
99 — I don’t think people are in love with Colon so much as they see him as the one palatable option in a terrible free agent market for starting pitchers. Who else would you rather have who might be affordable and sign a short-term deal?
Dave, Dave, Dave…one HUGE flaw in your reasoning and it flies in the face of your assumptions for doing the two-part offseason plan.
You stated “…allowing McLaren to give more rest to the everyday players…” Do you see any problem with that statement? In what we saw last year, what makes you think McLaren will give everyday players more rest…especially if they don’t want to come out (and we all know veterans understand you never come out because you might be upstaged by somebody else doing your job!!)?
I really enjoyed this post, especially because it made me feel that I´m not totally ignorant. I had thought of Jenkins since I read a piece in the Hardball Times last month, where they call him a superb defender by the way. I also thought about a MacLemore but didn´t think of Durham. Perfect fit. I´m wondering about additional possible moves along with this plan, specifically another starting pitcher such as Hiroki Kuroda, whom Churchill suggests the M’s are scouting closely. By pushing RRS back to Tacoma, you get additional depth, and just maybe the possibility of trading Washburn mid-season or next winter. One question: If the M’s were to follow exactly this plan, and come Febuary no one has signed Bonds, do you take him for 1 year/15 million?
bermantor,
do we need a short term option? it seems like many out there have written off ’08 as a year in which we prepare for ’09. even at 82-85 wins we arent in the playoffs with the teams that are out there. i would just rather see us promote from within, very difficult i konw, or trade for someone young with upside. getting colon for one year, to me, disrupts the flow. in the best case scenario, he pitches well and we have to deal with a guillen like situation where the team entertains offering this guy an extension. the whole situation with colon just scares me.
104-
it seems like many out there have written off ‘08 as a year in which we prepare for ‘09.
Much though the team might improve if this were the case, USSM’s views do not necessarily represent those of the Mariners front office. Since everyone there is effectively in a contract year, I expect it will do something.
I’d rather make a short commitment to Colon than a four-year one to Silva (to take one FA alternative), and I’d rather just pay him the cash for a one- or two-year deal than make a panic trade after the Angels sign A-Rod. Given the situation the front office and manager are in, I don’t think they view standing pat as an option.
“Extremely” is a silly word to use here. Colon weighs more than you want a pitcher to weigh, but if he were extremely overweight he wouldn’t be able to perform. I don’t know why people make such a big deal about the weight. The only thing that matters is, can he do the job? There’s a long, long history of effective fat pitchers, who remain effective years past the point where armchair experts declared they would fall apart because of their weight. The fact is, being in athletic shape comes in many forms, and none of us know what kind of shape Colon is in. I trust the trainers to say whether or not he’s in shape to play for us more than I trust a bunch of guys making fat jokes.
As for trading Ibanez: Dave said this is the realistic post. Management is not going to trade Ibanez.
Hey Dave – could you please discuss the difference between signing Jenkins and Fukudome?
This is going to sound like a cop-out, but I think I have a pretty good idea of how good Jenkins is, and I don’t really have any idea how good Fukudome is. I’ve only seen short video clips, but from the swing he takes, I’m not sure how much power he’ll hit for, and defense is really anyone’s guess.
Jenkins will probably require a shorter commitment and is more of a known quantity. However, if the M’s have scouted Fukudome extensively and think he’s a better bet, I won’t argue. I don’t really have a position on him – I just don’t think I have enough good information to make any real conclusions.
Dave, which of any prospects in the Baltimore system that you would choose for Broussard and why?
You won’t get a ton for Broussard. Maybe an arm like Jim Johnson.
Dave, did you ask your sources about Sexson’s health. Mine (no doubt less informed than yours) say his injury may be career-ending.
I haven’t heard anything like that.
My only reservation is the Affeldt addition. I think 3 yr/$9 M is overpaying. I would probably find a league-average fifth starter at 1 yr/$3-5 M and keep Rowland-Smith as my long man in the pen. But that’s just me.
League average 5th starters aren’t signing for 1 year, $3.5 million.
So, if it takes a 2 year deal to land Jenkins or Colon, do you still do it?
Depends on the money, but probably.
I’m not sure why you would prefer trading Sexson away rather than Ibanez.
This isn’t about what I’d prefer – this is about what is theoretically possible given the current organization. And they’re just not trading Raul Ibanez.
For those questioning whether the Ms see RRS as a starter, see Jason Churchill’s article on RRS starting in Venezuela Winter League on Prospect Insider.
Even if the organization was willing to trade Ibanez, I’m not sure I’d rather get rid of him than Sexson.
Ibanez still adds value as a hitter even if he’s worthless defensively; Sexson, I just don’t see as valuable either offensively or defensively anymore, but I can see the Giants going for the Durham/Sexson scenario if we add enough money to the deal.
Sexson, I just don’t see as valuable either offensively or defensively anymore, but I can see the Giants going for the Durham/Sexson scenario if we add enough money to the deal.
While I expect Sexson will bounce back and have a decent year, I do think the trade Dave’s outlines works very well (in the “what this Front Office might do” scheme anyway). It helps break up the log-jam at 1B/DH (keeping Raul’s legs out of the outfield), and brings in a veteran to push Lopez without adding salary. Given the noises the organization was making about Lopez, I suspect finding a 2B is high on their list of needs (right after SP), so converting Sexson’s contract into a solution there is a great idea.
And honestly, I like Lopez, he’s young, and it’s way too early to give up on him. But his offense last year was a concern. Maybe it was his brother, maybe it was a nagging injury, maybe it was the team trying to make him a slap, oppo-field hitter, but whatever it was, he needs to hit better to hold down a starting job.
I hear the people saying we’re already long-ball challenged and trading Sexson will just make that worse, but I think the move Dave outlines can make it better. This team will hit more long-balls if it
a) starts Adam Jones
b) puts another lefty masher in the lineup
c) gets better hitting out of Lopez
With both Sexson and Vidro in the lineup, you have to choose between a) and b), you can’t do both. With Sexson gone, you can do both. If the “push him” idea works with Lopez, Durham helps with c) too.
Dave, you have shown amazing flexibility in your thinking. I know this plan goes against a lot of what you really believe, but working within someone else’s constraints, I think you’ve crafted a pretty good plan.
JMHawkins…you are correct.
And I REALLY HOPE you are correct when you say this plan goes against Dave’s thinking & beliefs, because I want more in this off season than this…but unfortunately this plan may be the best that Bavasi can do.
What about the incentive-laden deal route & organizational depth minor-league contract competing for a roster spot stuff? What you suggest they could spend on Affeldt could upgrade Jenkins to Fukudome if we just go after a Sauerbeck/Rhodes/Rincon competition (Jiminez could be insurance there too). If someone’s arm is alright we’re all good. The bargain FA starters aren’t non-existent. A team just have to pick the right one. Some of these guys are gonna pan out:
Mike Mussina
Casey Fossum
Livan Hernandez
Matt Clement
Jason Jennings
Dustin Hermanson (perhaps past starting days)
Joe Kennedy (inflated 05 Coors stats)
Byung-hun Kim
Shawn Chacon
Bruce Chen
Glendon Rusch
Jaret Wright
Wade Miller
Grabbing a couple & seeing whose arm has enough life left to compete with RRS, Baek, & all is a fair route albeit one the front office might prefer for the #5 spot in their pursuit of safe bets. I agree with those who argue Colon will likely take more than one year altho if he believes he’s healthy he might go for single year to secure one last big contract after a comeback season. Realitstically, it makes more sense to have someone on a one year deal in the #4 spot with Morrow, Tillman, & others capable of making a leap soon. Randy in the last year of his contract would be ideal especially if we could net a bench-buried Quentin in the package. Yeah, yeah a wee-bit optimistic & we all know how the Big Unit & Chuck share pleasantries.
Kudos on the LH power bat, switch-hitter on the bench, versatile bench, & don’t trade the big prospects formula. Bavasi will be hard-pressed to come up with anything as repulsive as the Soriano or Vidro trades this time around so the offseason might come across as an awesome in comparison. Everyone is watching Bill.
Excited for the ideal scenario. What do you think about for the contingency plans? How do you like the incentive-contract bargain bin arms? They do fit within the organizational structure of favoring veterans & competition. Personally, I favor Clement out of that group but also like Livan as a mentor for Felix.
I want to compliment Dave for doing the two approaches (assuming he doesn’t die before he writes the idealistic one). While I like the dream team articles, I love seeing the realistic scenario.
If we even just do Sexson-for-Durham and dump Horacio, I’ll be very happy.
Any chance that Jenkins (if we land him) could replace Raul as the “face†of the organization? Same position (LF) but better defense, comparable offense, and he’s from WA.
At the same time, could moving to Safeco potentially help Jenkins? I know the NL to AL generally hurts offense, but He’s been hitting 20+ HR the past few seasons (exception to last year), and Safeco seems to favor LH hitters.
I like the Jenkins talk, especially adding another LH power bat… but if he ends up somewhere else would Brad Wilkerson be a bad alternative? Or even Shawn Green?
Any chance that Jenkins (if we land him) could replace Raul as the “face†of the organization? Same position (LF) but better defense, comparable offense, and he’s from WA.
Not likely, especially since they won’t want to make a long-term commitment even if they do bring him in. Position has nothing to do with it. Being from Washington might, but they haven’t really promoted Sexson that way despite his local connection.
Any 30 second clip of any interview with Sexson explains why he was never in the running for Face of the Franchise.
Jeff Clement might be the next Face of the Franchise — he comes off as Dan Wilson’s younger brother.
And some of that September call-up offense didn’t hurt, either…
So in light of Dave’s plan, Nate Silver from BP offers his:
Unfortunately, I think he has Bavasi nailed…
After the M’s sign either Kuroda or Uehara and trade Washburn for A/AA prospect deal then I can see if Colon is healthy he must pass a very detailed phyical in order to be signed.
I would however go a step futher and add a incentive clause of a earned option year if Colon meets a set of goals during his one yr contract.
I fully agree with the Jeremy Affeldt signing still young but has playoff experience which is always a plus in RP.
Has already expressed a interest in signing with the M’s and likes the idea of pitching so close to his hometown and family.
Again if signed I’d add a incentive clause so he earn a option yr added to his contract provided he met a set of goals during the life of his 3yr deal.
I must confess I didn’t think of the Sexson and $$$$ for Ray Durham deal.Dave you’re right Durham is a possible McLemore type super sub who would definately push Lopez to perform to his expected level or prove him to be trade bait.
I also agree Durham shows any ability at 1stB and that would make Ibanez DH and Vidro the emergency INFer and pinch hitting specialist.
However in that case you have to retain Broussard or gamble on a platoon of sorts with Morse/Durham/and maybe Ibanez.
As to the OF since Guillen is most likely going to opt out and not exercise his player option.
I think the M’s can do better short term than Jenkins for instance that Japanese OF FA (his name escapes me) who is bit younger and can be had for less money for a longer deal say 2 yrs and earned option for say 3 or 4 mil a yr.
In either case it does allow the M’s to retain both Clement and Balentien in AAA to futher ready themselves to play MLB for the M’s.
Also allows the M’s to retain Burke for another season til Clement,Johnson,or Moore prove ready to assume both the starting and backup jobs.
Dave-
What are the chances that the Ms sign Kuroda? and if they do, how will he be in the states?
When do the free agent rankings come out? Do you expect any of these pick-ups to be Type A free agents?
As an update – they’ve now come out. Here are the full AL and NL lists. None of Dave’s targets is worth a compensation pick, Jenkins just misses. Jose Guillen is a Type B, as expected, for what it’s worth.
Nice to see all the Ray Durham love here because, hey, love makes the world go round.
But having watched him a lot, Durham is a guy hovering near, or falling over, the Joey Cora cliff. Ray had an OPS of .503 (no typo) after the AS break. Compared to Durham, Sexson DID have a second half surge. You can look at Durham’s low BABIP, but really, he’s lost a lot of power, which I have to attribute to a loss of A LOT of batspeed because he’s very small for an MLB ballplayer and can’t rely on your basic (mass) *(velocity) for power. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Durham out of baseball mid-season next summer.
Even seen solely as a mechanism for giving Sexson the door, it’s not a great move to pick up Durham.
You really think we would take Geoff Jenkins over Kosuke Fukudome, Dave? Interesting.
Also too, what ever happened to Kam Mickolo and Jorge Campillo??? I would think both of them would have a decent chance to make the team next year in middle and long relief.
Campillo and his 85 MPH fastball were released.
just wondering….we should consider putting Wlad in the OF? Ibanez is aging and idk about wlad”s fielding, but almost anything is better than Rauuul’s. It would add youth to our lineup, but questions. So to answer the doubts in the lineup I suggest signing/trading for a proven 2B (eg Iguchi, maybe Giles). That would then open trade options with ibanez, such as the previously rumored Nate Robertson trade.
and is Bavasi gonna do something legit…like signing an A-class free agent? or is he gonna just be a lame duck–yet again?
Bavasi has said he won’t put two rookies in the outfield, and with Guillen apparently walking and Jones the heir apparent, there’s one rookie there already.
Wlad is better in the field than Raul, certainly. But Raul is the face of the franchise at the moment, which is part of the reason Dave was trying to find a place for him by trading Sexson.
#127: hahaha, well never mind then. I must’ve been too mesmorized by Rocktober to realize that.
Just wanted to add that Ray Durham has played all of 1 inning in his professional career at a position other than 2B (CF for Giants in 2005). As a lifelong White Sox fan, I’ve seen him as a defensive liability for quite some time, and I have severe doubts he’s anything close to a “supersub” of McLemore quality.
Obviously, he’s better than Sexson, however.
Howabout Aubrey Huff? He shouldnt cost anything in prospects really, and hes a lefty power bat who apparently can still slug a bit.
Huff only had 15 HR last year. I’d rather the team look at starting pitching. Zack Greinke is a player who would be worth an inquiry.