Random Notes During The Downtime
As I’m sure you’ve noticed by the lack of posts recently, Derek and I are both pretty busy, and with very little going on in the baseball world, it’s given us both a chance to do non-blogging things. Don’t worry – this isn’t the pace we’ll hold the whole offseason. Expect more posts as the winter heats up.
From scanning the papers around the web today, however, I did notice one trend – the annual hot stove rumor mongering is kicking into high gear. In separate articles today, we were told that Miguel Cabrera will be shopped by the Marlins, the Orioles will listen to offers for Erik Bedard, and that the Devil Rays might market Scott Kazmir as a Johan Santana alternative if the bidding gets ridiculous.
This is what happens when there is no news, but there’s still a significant demand for insider ideas into what might happen. The Orioles might listen if… The D’Rays might consider doing this if… I might move to Darfur if…
If Bob Finnigan was still around, he’d be writing his annual “Mariners might bring Griffey back” column right about now, so remember, just take these rumors with truckloads of salt.
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Wait, THE MARINERS MIGHT BRING GRIFFEY BACK????? OMG!!!
Someone get Baker on the phone and insist he must carry on the tradition.
When does the “Edgar for manager” hot stove babble start? I seem to remember some of that last year.
We could have “The King and Kazmir, and two days of beer!”
I thought it was “Edgar for hitting coach” that people were pushing. And Moyer for pitching Coach.
#3– yup. no matter that Moyer actually had a job at the time, as did Edgar.
“The Pirates have scheduled a news conference this morning at PNC Park to officially announce John Russell’s hiring. The Pirates’ other finalists were Cleveland Indians third-base coach Joel Skinner, Chicago White Sox bench coach Joey Cora and Los Angeles Dodgers bench coach Dave Jauss.”
so has Cora become the new Willie Randolph, brought in to fulfil the ‘minority candidate’ mandate?
Well, Randolph did ultimately get a job. Cora will too, I’m pretty sure, though maybe he was wise enough to pass on the Pirates job. The real perennial minority candidate was Chris Chambliss.
Isn’t Cora bilingual? That’s a substantially useful quality to have in a manager these days, I would think. I’m not a big Cora fan, but I’d like to think he’s not just Token in the process.
I have to admit to a fondness for this time (as the GM & Winter meetings get underway) if for no other reason that it proves that supposedly knowledgeable baseball writers can come up with trade scenarios that are just as silly as those of your “average fan”.
And then on the other hand, if one of said writers had told you 9 months ago that Mattingly and Bowa would join Joe Torre’s LA Dodger coaching staff well before the winter meetings of ’07, they may have seemed a little silly, too.
I love baseball.
speaking of coaches, “Former Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves has accepted an offer to join the Yankees as the pitching coach for the Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre club in Moosic, Pa.”
oh, and Jim Street thinks Yung Chi Chen could be with the big club as soon as next year.
Isn’t Cora bilingual? That’s a substantially useful quality to have in a manager these days, I would think.
We could make Ichiro player/manager just to demonstrate that Pete Rose didn’t ruin it for everyone. He speaks three languages.
The only believable rumor I’ve heard so far comes from J Churchill, and its substance is that Kuroda is the number one pitching target for the Mariners this winter. I’m split as to what to think; bad cause Kuroda is old and average at best, or good because the M’s could do so much worse?
Great. Between now and the winter meetings, we can look forward to the following stories from the local media:
Steve Kelley: The M’s need to coax 1995 players out of retirement.
Art Thiel: The M’s make a lot of money; Howard Lincoln denies it.
Geoff Baker: “Local” favorite Willie Bloomquist does not actually live here.
Larry LaRue: M’s should trade for Miguel Cabrera to fill need for left-handed starting pitching.
John Hickey: Newly hired coach just happy he is not working for brother-in-law’s insurance business.
Kirby Arnold: Here are three paragraphs of an Adam Jones profile that was twenty paragraphs when he turned it into his editors.
Larry Stone: Improving M’s outfield defense is key to improving pitching performances.
Joe Torre just looks wrong in a Dodgers cap.
…Larry LaRue: M’s should trade for Miguel Cabrera to fill need for left-handed starting pitching…
Hi-5 Grizz, Hi-5. I think you know our local rag M’s writers pretty well…
The Tracy Ringolsby rumor about the Giants shopping Tim Lincecum was also amusing–unless there’s a trade for Pujols or Miguel Cabrera being postulated that I haven’t heard about.
If the Giants were going to shop anyone, I think it would be Barry Zito.
I still dread the prospect of a Zito for Sexson/prospects package, because a) Bavasi would gladly pay for it, since it’s “obvious” what the team needs is a marquee pitcher and b) it would be ruthlessly logical for the Giants- you’d get an established player back who has a decent chance of a bounceback year in a contract year, you could stock your farm system and add young players, and between Bonds coming off the books this year and Sexson coming off the books after 2008, you’d have money to make some FA acquisitions around the young players you snag.
Looks like Bowa goes to Los Angeles, I hope McLaren has a backup plan for 3rd base coach that doesn’t involve Carlos Garcia.
#17: Oh, but couldn’t we use yet another bad free agent pitching contract on our staff? We already have 2 of them, so why stop now?
#18 — I am not worried about the the future 3rd base coach. It won’t be Garcia, and it really won’t matter too much.
#19 — I count one bad free agent pitching contract: Washburn. Do you count Batista as the other? He is no bargain, but I wouldn’t classify him as a bad contract.
I hate the annual “Teax X will listen to offers for…” stories. As opposed to what, slamming down the phone in a panic if another team calls up with a trade proposal?
20 – Ramirez was the other bad pitching contract.
mlb.com’s baseball channel is airing an Arizona Fall league game at the moment, bottom of the 5th …
#17: That absolutely terrifies me!! Though I think Zito will be average for the life of the contract, his salary will not at all be average. That would just be a death trap.
#20: I wouldn’t even qualify Washburn’s as bad. It’s not the best deal out there, but at a 9 million average it’s high but it could be worse. We’ve seen ridiculous contracts in the past couple of years and at least his is up at the end of next year if I’m not mistaken?
#22. feh. it was a tease to get you to buy the package.
Miguel Cabrera if he is being shopped by the Marlins by their FO and ownership’s track record I have to say is most likely true.
I said any team would may aquire him will have to pay a hefty price in farm talent and cheap 1st and 2nd yr players to get him.
As to any Zito trade by the Giants they would have to agree to pay at least half of his yearly salary for the life of contract to get a prospect deal forget any thing else he’s their ManRam without the performance.
If the Giants trade any players look for them to move SPs Lowry and Sanchez with maybe Ray Durham.
To make room some young MLB ready players a and to cut payroll.
As to Baltimore shopping Bedard if they want fill some holes so they can better contend that the player they have to put on the block.
I can see the M’s aquiring him for say Reed/Broussard/Baek and a cash consideration.
As to Tampa Bay D-Rays putting Kasmir on the block to take advantage of the losers of any Santana sweepstakes makes sense cause they could make a killing in MLB ready level prospects in areas of need.
So Dave while I agree these rumors and others are to be taken with a grain of salt.
I think there is a logic to them and they are not as outrageous as you seem to think they are.
Remember Dave there is an old saying sometimes you need to break some eggs in order to make a omelete or bake a cake.
Same is true when you have to fill holes to make a team whole sometimes you have to give up a top guy to get the rest of bench.
Joe Torre just looks wrong in a Dodgers cap.
I don’t know, he’s looked kind of wrong in a lot of different caps.
#20 and #23: Let’s put it this way, what was the reason for this good bullpen’s downfall this year besides one Mr. White?
It’s because the entire rotation couldn’t get you out of the 6th inning all season long. Weaver and HoRam were basically crap just about the whole time while Batista and Washburn (while pitching decent) never seemed to get you out of the 6th with a few exceptions.
And during the times late in the season when Mac left Washburn and Batista in the game in the 7th, they were basically out of gas most of the time.
Which is part of the reason why it’s incredibly valuable to have horses in your rotation (and also why teams are overpaying for horses in free agency), it can help you win more close games than you realize late in the season if you have a good bullpen.
It’s just too bad the next real reliable “horse” that will be out there in free agency will be costing upwards of $25 million a season. . .
There is Bartolo Colon, but he’d just do nothing but eat all the time when he’s here. . .
#26: And that is why Batista and Washburn are really bad contracts considering that you are paying about 15%-20% of your payroll to guys who can’t pitch consistently enough and also who can’t pitch long enough.
Plus, who knows what could happen to their pitching success as they continue to age.
And I can see the Baltimore bursting out laughing before Bavasi finishes the sentence….
I can see the M’s aquiring [Bedard] for say Reed/Broussard/Baek and a cash consideration.
Some good stuff you’re smoking.
think there is a logic to them and they are not as outrageous as you seem to think they are.
The essence of a good rumor is that it seems plausible. But that doesn’t make it likely. Every year at this time there are a whole slew of rumors, all of which have “a logic” to them. Almost none of them come true. If you believed the November rumors every team would have half of its roster replaced every year by christmas.
As to Baltimore shopping Bedard if they want fill some holes so they can better contend that the player they have to put on the block.
I can see the M’s aquiring him for say Reed/Broussard/Baek and a cash consideration.
The first paragraph of this is hard to get through, but trust me, the punchline at the end is worth it.
Seattle would at least have to throw in Ramirez to make that Bedard deal happen. Maybe even Bloomquist.
I can see the M’s aquiring him for say Reed/Broussard/Baek and a cash consideration.
My guess is any talks for Bedard include Felix and one of Jones/Triunfel.
“I can see the M’s aquiring him for say Reed/Broussard/Baek and a cash consideration.”
That’s a big cash consideration you’re talking about.
I know, while we’re at it, lets trade Willie Bloomquist for Chase Utley.
#31, why not just send Sexson. He’s a veteran, thus >>> than any AAA prospect we try and pass off as a legit MLB’er. That’d get it done.
35 is right … add him into the mix.
Seriously, you have to ask yourself what’s in it for the other team when coming up with these kind of proposals. If Baltimore markets Eric Bedard, the Orioles will contact a whole lot of teams to try and get the best package possible, which will be much better than a trio whose upside is basically platoon 1B, fourth outfielder, and fifth starter.
Washburn is a near replacement level pitcher, who looks only “below average” because of Safeco, but gets paid like a #3/4 starter. That’s a bad deal if you ask me.
Zito terrifies me too. Are we even sure Zito is average NOW let lone for the life of the contract. 5.01 xFIP in the NL doesn’t strike confidence in me.
The guys velocity has dropped from below average to “how and the hell does he still get people out”. Also I couldn’t help but noticed his IF/F ratio dropped since leaving Oakland. Now, didn’t I read somewhere before that might happen?
Bedard isn’t going anywhere unless the Orioles get the moon in return. Same goes for (and especially for) Kazmir, and to a only slightly lesser extent Santana. There’s no point to trade them unless it’s worth it to their teams.
As to any Zito trade by the Giants they would have to agree to pay at least half of his yearly salary for the life of contract to get a prospect deal forget any thing else he’s their ManRam without the performance.
The name you are looking for is not Manny Ramirez. The name you are looking for is Chan Ho Park. Barry Zito is the Giants’ Chan Ho Park.
… else he’s their ManRam without the performance
LOL. If you took away most of those runs he created, Manny’s been a replacement level player.
#28-30,33 I confess my proposed trade offer maybe a bit low ball but like so often it’s just a suggestion to get some better ideas without having give up a Felix or a Jones and yet get it done.
#40 I agree Chan Ho Park is a much better comparsion in this Zito discussion however I believe contract wise ManRam’s is closer than Park’s.
#41 That’s my point about the ManRam without the performance Zito is making a very outrageous salary but isn’t nor does he look as he’s going to deliver seasons to justify his salary.
ManRam at least produces runs and makes things happen at the plate just by his rep.
He does without fail gets 20+ HR and minimum 90+ RBIs season in season out for Boston.
So you put up with his antics and bluster cause frankly he does put his bat where his mouth is and delivers.
Great. Now I have to clean up the pop I just spewed all over my monitor and keyboard.
My subscription to USSM would be worth it even at double the price.
Actually, it wasn’t Bearman that got me, I’m sortof used to him by now. It was this:
It’s not fair to just spring something like that on us without fair warning.
There were some early rumblings about Sam Perlozzo as a third base option. I only liked that idea before when it included the slim chance of him coaxing Leo Mazzone into coming along.
Luckily for us, though, we’ll have Stottlemyre to make sure the Mariners pitch inside next year.
#44, you got me thinking, and we shouldn’t lowball ourselves like that. We should get Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollin and some cash ($50 mil or so) as well. We’d be losing too much grit, hustle, and NW born pasty-facedness to be worth it.
I think we could get Johan Santana for Reed/Morse/HoRam/Bloomquist. Minnesota would get four players for the price of one, so they’d be getting quite a steal.
Seriously, some of these trade ideas would get rejected in a video game. Why in the world would the O’s give up their ace without demanding actual major-league players? There’s a difference between prospects and minor leaguers. Baek is replacement level. Reed is probably worse than replacement level. They’re not prospects. The Orioles could easily find mediocre talent like that within their own organization. They’re not trade away their best player for it.
The Orioles could easily find mediocre talent like that within their own organization. They’re not trade away their best player for it.
The 2007 Orioles say hi.
#47, what Brandon Fahey isn’t their best player?! I’d never guessed.
I’ll admit, I was reamed out a last week for suggesting we could play ball with the Orioles for Bedard. All of you seem hip to the idea that we have no shot and that bashing people and making fun of fellow Mariners fans, however educated they are, along the way. I just want to know, what do you think other teams will offer for Bedard? I know there are to be a ton of options but you have to imagine the Orioles are going to want players that aren’t going to cost them huge dollars in the next two years as I’m guessing they would just pay that money to Bedard. Do you think they are going to look for low level prospects with upside or near major league ready players?
The discussion would probably start with either Adam Jones or Carlos Triunfel, and that is the point at which Bavasi should hang up the phone.
That’s the point that people are trying to make, it’s going to take top-level talent (whether major league ready, or still in development) to pry Bedard away from the Orioles, not whatever is left in the dusty back corners of the cupboard.
Nobody’s saying the M’s can’t trade for Bedard. But the Mariners can’t trade crap for Bedard.
I totally agree that it is going to take a ton to get him. Is Triunfel truly that untouchable? He looks like an absolute stud but he is just 17. If it didn’t take much more than Triunfel wouldn’t we at least have to listen to it?
Well, it was meant as a more general example of the fact that for a trade to work, both teams have to feel that they’re getting equal value out of it.
Bearman’s suggestion of Reed/Broussard/Baek would not even come close.
Bedard is 28, and the Mariners need more than one more starter to get into the playoffs. I wouldn’t give up Triunfel for him.
Ok, I’m always interested to see how a 17 year old who is probably 2-3 years away is valued. We, especially in this case, hope for Triunfel to be the absolute real deal. But how do we really know how good he will be in comparison to star mlb ready players? I’d love to hear people’s opinions because I love the idea of promoting from within but with the possibility of 3 of the best left handers in the league being available, we have to at least take a long hard look at what it would take. Are people afraid to say that a Triunfel, player B, and player C might get it done?
I don’t think anyone will ever come up with a formula for predicting how much a 17 year-old player is worth now compared to current major leaguers. It’s always a gamble when it comes to trading future talent for talent now (otherwise you wouldn’t see as much turnover at the GM spot as you do!)
However, once in a while a player comes along where almost everyone agrees has all of the right tools. Whether they’re an old-school scout, a moneyball believer, a new-school moneyball 2.0 GM, or a Bill James sabermetrician; everyone seems to agree that a certain player may have the combination of whatever tools or metrics that they believe in – basically a “can’t miss” player by anyone’s standard. Felix was (is) one of those players. I think that the M’s are fortunate to have another in Triunfel.
It’s players like these who you definitely have to let develop for a few years before deciding how much they’re worth on the trade market. In this respect, I think that Triunfel would be “untouchable,” at least for now.
I think Scott Olsen of the Marlins is one player I would like to see the M’s target. After all his troubles last year Florida may be willing to part with him and he still has alot of upside. Would definately be worth an inquiry as he could just need a change of scenery.
I’d be all over Olsen, depending on the price. He seems like a good fit for Safeco, especailly if he can go back to the pitcher he was before this year. I suspect the whole “F**k David Sampson” thing puts a damper on that pipedream.
#57 However, once in a while a player comes along where almost everyone agrees has all of the right tools. Whether they’re an old-school scout, a moneyball believer, a new-school moneyball 2.0 GM, or a Bill James sabermetrician; everyone seems to agree that a certain player may have the combination of whatever tools or metrics that they believe in – basically a “can’t miss†player by anyone’s standard. Felix was (is) one of those players. I think that the M’s are fortunate to have another in Triunfel.
It’s players like these who you definitely have to let develop for a few years before deciding how much they’re worth on the trade market. In this respect, I think that Triunfel would be “untouchable,†at least for now.
Ryan Anderson was also one of those guys, and was deemed “untouchable”.
Ryan Anderson was a pitcher, so there’s more uncertainty inherently, but yeah, there’s alway that risk of being the next big bust with all prospects.
You have to weigh the risk and reward relative to each other. I’m really not sure of the attrition rate for #1 rated prospects like Triunfel, but it seems to me a fairly large percentage (no idea how many) of them turn into good players. IMO the attrition is the very reason to hang on to them, the more stars you’re trying to develop, the more stars you will develop. Cost controlled star players are more valuable than just about anything.
You can’t treat every prospect as if they’re going to turn into Ryan Anderson.
My point was that the Mariners view Triunfel’s potential in the future as more valuable than any talent that the Mariners might be able to trade for now. Hence, they have labeled him as untouchable. This, of course, may change in the future. But I think for this winter, the M’s will and should stand pat on any Triunfel trade discussion.
Obviously hindsight would tell us that any Ryan Anderson, Ben McDonald, Todd VanPopple, or Brien Taylor should have been traded for a Joey Cora in the 1990s…
By “more stars you’re trying to develop, the more stars you will develop”, meaning, trading away a prospect, especially a top prosepct, reduces your chance of having a cheap star. The more chances you have for a star player to develop, the more likely you will have a star player develop. Sometimes the immediate needs outweigh the risk, but you never know when you’ll throw away the next Johan Santana or David Ortiz, not meaning to pick on the Twins, since we’ve done our fair share of that.
#65: To continue what you said at the end of the post. This is exactly why I always say that prospects are nothing more than a piece of paper until they get to the show and you can see what they can do in the highest level of baseball possible. It’s just so hard to tell beforehand when you call up a prospect from the minor leagues whether or not he’ll be a instant star like Junior, a work in progress like Edgar Martinez was in the early years, or if he’s just going to be a complete flameout like The Little Unit was.
But at the same time, if you just trade every prospect you have for just veterans. Then you are only going to see more and more trades that feature the likes of Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb or David Ortiz for Terry Mulholland, and all know how those trades in the ’90′s bit the M’s right in the buttocks.
Really all you can do with a minor league system is draft and develop the best players you can and then once they are good enough to play in the major leagues, give them every opportunity to do that so you can see what kind of player you just called up.
The Mariners may not need Carlos Trinufel, Yung-Chi Chen or Jose Lopez in a few years, or they might. One or two of those players may become stars with the Mariners, or they could be flameouts.
But how will you know if you trade them all for “veteran grit” before they get to the show and really get a chance to do anything?
That’s what I thought. . .
I don’t think anyone will ever come up with a formula for predicting how much a 17 year-old player is worth now compared to current major leaguers.
I bet we’ll see one relatively soon — or at least, a model that gives some idea of that.
I don’t know how accurate it would be with somebody that young because the range of potential outcomes would be greater, but especially for players in the high minors I would guess that there are formulas being developed that weigh the various potential outcomes and their value, aggregate the numbers, multiply it by it a certain weight to correct for any additional risk factor, and come up with a number. It just seems logical that the stats-based front offices would be looking to develop something like that, because the ability to value minor league talent more accurately than your rivals would be a massive competitive advantage.
the one floating about today was Lincecum for Crawford & Young +
I tell ya, there really is no better comic value to be had than Jim Street’s mailbag feature on the M’s website. We must take for granted the level of intelligence we see on this blog, as even some of the really bad ideas can’t top this one:
Knowing that the Mariners’ starting pitching fell apart toward the end of the season, I’ve heard rumors that C.C. Sabathia will be a free agent next year. What would be the probability of getting Sabathia for Jeff Weaver or Horacio Ramirez?
– Josh B., Fullerton, Calif.
Seriously? Bearman gets bailed out of worst idea of the day.
The point with Ryan Anderson is that there really shouldn’t be anything as an “untouchable” prospect. Every prospect is suspect until they have actually demonstrated they can perform at the MLB level. Until they do that, their future performance profile needs to be discounted, and the further away from the big leagues and younger they are, the larger the discount that needs to be applied.
At the time David Arias was traded for Dave Hollins, he was only a prospect whereas the Mariners had need for a third baseman. Setting aside the issue of whether Hollins was an intelligent solution to that need, there was nothing wrong with trading a prospect such as Arias (slugger with a big hole in his swing and marginal defensive skills) to plug a hole on the MLB roster, even though the player acquired might only be around for that season.
#70– I entertained myself by asking Street about the all-B infield, and he missed the point of the question, but mananged to answer the mis-read question incorrectly.
Any player should be judged and valued based on what you can evaluate about their skills.
There is no good reason to arbitrarily value a player less because they are in the minor leagues.
Ryan Anderson was a flameout of near-historic levels; saying of every prospect “but they could turn into Ryan Anderson!” really doesn’t tell you anything useful.
Any player should be judged and valued based on what you can evaluate about their skills.
There is no good reason to arbitrarily value a player less because they are in the minor leagues.
Of course there’s a discount for a minor leaguer. Potential is not the same as performance. Consider two player whose skill sets evaluate equally. Player A has successfully made it to MLB and demonstrated performance that indicates he is one or two years away from realizing his projected potential. Player B, with identical potential and skill set, has yet to successfully complete AA ball.
Despite having equal skill sets, Player A ought to be – and will be – valued more highly than Player B.
Getting back to the original post:
Sexson for Griffey, straight up. I don’t want Griffey here, but I want Sexson gone even more.
The Reds have Scott Hatteberg, Adam Dunn, and Joey Votto.
Richie makes $14 million next year. Griffey’s contract contains so much deferred money it equates to $9.2-9.3 million for the last year of his contract ($4 million buyout on $16.5 million 2009 option).
So the Reds make their 1B/DH logjam worse and take on salary all to acquire a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Who they hate.
70 & 72 – While we are commenting on the ignorance of people unaware of the USSMariner, I might want to add a quote from a Mariners’s fan on foxsports.com
izzyluvfootball
11/3/2007
11:09 AM (report inappropriate content)
Once again, the Seattle Mariners prove their ignorance by letting a good hitter and player go, and keeping a BLEEP coach. Why is seattle so intent on adam jones being the outfielder he hasn’t proven himself at all! here we are ready to make a push for the division title and we immediatly take a step backwards. This is so frustrating.
Wow, I just shook my head reading that.
I would LOVE for Seattle to be so intent on AJ being an outfielder.
I agree #78. That needs to happen!
Do you think we could get Dunn from the Reds for Sexson, a prospect and some cash? He is in the last year of his contract as is Sexton and if they feel Votto needed some more time Sexson could certainly be somewhat successful in Cincy. On top of that Dunn would give us the left handed bat that we need in the middle of that lineup. I know he is somewhat of a defensive liability in the outfield but could we develop him more at first base and then sign him to a long term contract? I’m sure it would take a lot but for a 40 hr guy who is younger than 30, it may be worth it.
As to the talk of Truinfel, that’s what I was hoping to learn and I think I have a better idea of our feeling on him. I really wanted to know if we think this is the impact player that everyone seems to be making him out to be. I’ll be honest, if he is untouchable, I hope he becomes an absolute stud!
I like the idea of Olsen from Florida. It probably wont take too terribly much. I like the idea of moving a veteran (like Ibanez, though I know they wouldn’t) because you know that Florida is always looking for someone to be a leader on that young team and on top of that their outfield has been weak in recent years.
I think the Marlins are pretty happy with their corner OF’s, Hermida and Willingham. They’d be looking for a CF, catcher, or pitching, I imagine.