Winter Moves Begin
Now that we’re starting to get to the end of the 15 day exclusive negotiating period and teams had the chance to talk at the GM meetings last week, the offseason is slowly kicking into gear with a few minor moves. Here’s a quick recap of what’s happened so far.
Boston re-signed Curt Schilling to a one year deal.
Schilling takes far less money to stay in Boston than he could have gotten on the free market. On top of all the other built in advantages the Red Sox have, they’ve also now established an environment that encourages quality players to take below market deals to play in the city. They’re going to be contenders for a long, long time.
Philadelphia acquires Brad Lidge for three replaceable parts.
Pat Gillick makes a pretty terrific move here, picking up a valuable bullpen arm for a trio of role players. As long as Lidge doesn’t tank in 2008, the Phillies are going to be in a position to get a quality relief season, then cash in with compensatory draft picks for letting him walk as a free agent next winter, and those draft picks will likely be more valuable than the middling prospects they gave up to get Lidge in the first place. New Astros GM Ed Wade gets off to a bad start – not that I had much hope for that franchise after they hired him to begin with.
Detroit acquires Jacque Jones for Omar Infante.
Remember when Jon Paul Morosi was speculating that the Tigers would give up some real talent for Raul Ibanez? Nope – they’re smarter than that. Instead, they bought low on the always underrated Jacque Jones. He’s not the same caliber of hitter that Ibanez is, but his defense makes up for 90% of the difference. When all you’re giving up is Omar Infante for a quality left-fielder, the price is definitely right. The Cubs didn’t necessarily need Jones, but they don’t need Infante either, so this was basically a money dump for Chicago.
Was Jones injured last year? He had a terrible season (ok, maybe not terrible, but pretty bad for a 5 million dollar corner OF). Defense and handedness aside, he doesn’t seem to me to be a very valuable player, and I doubt he’s be able to recover any power playing in Comerica.
Seems like they got an expensive version of Jeremy Reed in exchange for a guy who could play second and hit a few singles here and there – something not every team has.
Fastball and curveball aside, Felix isn’t a very good pitcher. Why would you put defense and handedness aside? Jones is one of the best defensive left fielders in baseball (possibly the best), and he can still hit RHP. He’s the perfect platoon LF for a team with a spacious outfield, and the Tigers have a perfect platoon partner in Marcus Thames.
Dave –
It looks like the Yankees are very close to resigning Posada for 3/40. What do you think about the deal? Granted, Posada had a (very) good year in 2007, but he is a catcher on the wrong side of 35. Pretty risky, if you ask me.
On a separate note, given your stance on the importance of defense, would you take Tulo over Braun for NL rookie of the year? I think Braun should win it (given his sick offensive numbers), but I know his defense is lousy and Tulo is a superb shortstop.
Dave- I apolagize if this isn’t the place to ask, but I am curious. What is your opinion of Kosuke Fukudome? Since he has officially filed for free agency I think we should grab him for left field.
Jacques Jones 2007 stats:
1st half: 233/294/335
2nd half: 332/374/458
Those 2nd half numbers are better than Jeremy Reed’s numbers in Tacoma last year.
Dave,
I am reading that Haren is available, I think Beane would trade him within the division, but would the M’s be willing to make a deal within the division?
What would it take to get him? Could it be done without parting with Ichiro, Felix or AJ?
In Dave Pinto’s fielding metric, Jones rates as the 5th best CENTER-fielder in 2007, right behind Curtis Granderson.
5 homeruns is an awful number, but we need to remember 2005 and 2006, too. A .335 OBP and .420 SLG seems perfectly reasonable and is perfectly league-average.
Comerica isn’t much of a pitcher’s park anymore. The fences were moved in a couple years ago.
As part of a platoon and for $5 million, Jones is a hell of a pickup. Now who wants Geoff Jenkins?
The Jones-Infante deal looks like a hell of a steal for the Tigers. I know that the Cubs were looking to offload Jones, but for a Bloomquist-type utility player with a worse bat?
I am reading that Haren is available, I think Beane would trade him within the division, but would the M’s be willing to make a deal within the division?
Beane is trying to sell high on Haren. He’s going to ask the world and probably get most of it.
Maybe it’s just my state of mind today, but this very nearly made me fall out of my chair laughing.
#8–Infante has a worse bat than Willie? Is that possible?
Not sure I understand your take on the Lidge trade, Dave. The Astros acquire a capable CF with a decent track record of on-base skills, if no power whatsoever. Seems to me that they need a CF who can cover some ground, to be certain to keep Pence in a corner and Burke in the infield, and if they only have that need because they traded away Taveras last year, Wade can hardly be blamed for that.
Meanwhile, the Phillies get a year and some draft picks. Lidge is better than his current reputation, obviously, but it’d be hard to argue that he’s an elite reliever at this point. A good one, sure. And aren’t there a few closers out there on the market for whom you don’t have to give up even middling prospects?
If you get down to third parts in the trade, I like Bruntlett better than Geary, but so what?
Anyway — I don’t disagree that it could be a win for the Phils and a loss for the Astros, but I can’t see how it’s so clear and easy a win. It doesn’t strike me as a move to congratulate Gillick about.
#8
Haren’s coming off a likely career year, he’s 27 and has 2 years left before free agency. He’s somewhat homer-prone (career 1.08 HR/9) but he misses bats (career 6.98 K/9 that has trended upward every season) and has good control (3.16 K/BB and 2.21 BB/9). He’s a low #1/high #2, and Beane won’t be looking to deal him unless he gets a Mulder-type package. Wlad and spare parts won’t get it done.
#11
Why is Lidge not an elite reliever at this point? His line last year was:
11.82 K/9
2.93 K/BB
1.21 HR/9
4.02 BB/9
Sure, he walks too many but he still misses a ton of bats and he would pretty easily be the best reliever on a number of teams (Tigers, Phillies and Rockies to name a few).
It looks like the Yankees are very close to resigning Posada for 3/40. What do you think about the deal? Granted, Posada had a (very) good year in 2007, but he is a catcher on the wrong side of 35. Pretty risky, if you ask me.
They’re the Yankees – they can afford to pay more than everyone else without it hurting them, and Posada’s one of the best catchers in baseball.
On a separate note, given your stance on the importance of defense, would you take Tulo over Braun for NL rookie of the year? I think Braun should win it (given his sick offensive numbers), but I know his defense is lousy and Tulo is a superb shortstop.
I think Tulowitzki was the more valuable player to his team this year. They’re both tremendous young players, though.
What is your opinion of Kosuke Fukudome?
I don’t really have one, and honestly, I’m not sure most people should either. The only reason to have an opinion is if you have enough knowledge about the guy to justify it, and I doubt most people know enough about Fukodome to have an opinion that anyone else should care about.
I am reading that Haren is available, I think Beane would trade him within the division, but would the M’s be willing to make a deal within the division?
Probably not.
The Astros acquire a capable CF with a decent track record of on-base skills, if no power whatsoever.
The high-OBP/no power skillset almost never translates to the major leagues. Almost the only way to make it work is to be an extremely high contact hitter who gets a ton of infield hits. Michael Bourn is not that type of hitter. The fact that he can play center field makes him a nifty reserve, but he’s not a good enough hitter to start for anyone trying to win games.
Meanwhile, the Phillies get a year and some draft picks.
Potentially two high draft picks, and even if he bombs, probably one pick in the 30-40 range. That’s a highly valuable pick – far more valuable than middling role players in the making like Bourn/Costanzo.
Basically, the Phillies gave up three things that they can easily find another version of for one thing that they can’t and the possibility of valuable draft picks. That’s a steal.
Lidge is still a strikeout machine too, I think it was a steal. Projecting prospects as the next Ichiro is ludicrous.
Projecting prospects as the next Ichiro is ludicrous.
Akin to comparing every tall left handed power pitcher to RJ.
Jon Heyman (so, take whatever grain of salt you wish) writes about what the Marlins are asking for Cabrera …
I’m a Lidge fan and hope that the change of scenery will be the final piece to him getting back to where he was a couple of years ago. Though Bourne could have a bright future, I think the Astros could have made more of a push for better players or looked to deal him somewhere where they could have got something better. There are enough teams out there that need a closer that would take Lidge. (Surprised Atlanta didn’t take a one year flyer on him and pick up the picks!)
I’d love to see Minaya steal Posada from the Yanks but it seems unlikely.
Maybe not Haren, but do you think Blanton could be had for what we have? I feel like he’s the innings eater we need in the middle of our rotation. He’s young and will most likely not cost much. Any thoughts?
Hey guys, been a longtime reader, great site. Im an A’s guy myself so Id figure Id pass along some knowledge of what I have re Beane trading within his own division: he doesnt do it very often, and actually hasnt in years.
It may or may not be some kind of policy he has, unless its an offer too good to refuse of course. Blanton and Haren are indeed available but I think the Mets and Dodgers are the 2 main teams the A’s are looking at in terms of getting prospects, the M’s dont really have the quality of prospects Oakland is looking at for these guys. So far Ive heard LaRoche, Kemp and Hu for Haren and Gomez, Milledge and Pelfrey for Blanton. I dont think the M’s have those kinds of quality pospects, I could be wrong though…both Joe and Dan are in Oaklands hands for another 3 years hence the heavy price Beane is asking.
Keep on truckin! Good luck in 08, because if the Angels get A-Rod, we’re ALL gunna need it…..
Blanton is a decent pitcher, and if the M’s had him, I would not complain, but I can’t see a situation where he gets traded that isn’t a sell high scenario. He put up numbers above what his peripherals suggested, and he eats innings (among other things). No doubt Beane will dangle Haren, Harden, and Blanton to see which one he can get the most relative value for, not unlike what he did w/ Hudson, Mulder, and Zito.
Tigers inked Todd Jones for $7M. Unbelievable. Is there a guy who gets by on smoke and mirrors more than Jones at this point?
I sure as hell wouldn’t want him as my closer.
The Cubs have been looking to move Jones (or Jones has been looking to be traded, depending who you believe) since they signed Soriano, which pushed Jones to the bench. That subsided when they said Soriano would play CF, opening up a corner for Jones, but the trade murmurs came back when he got off to a slow start and Soriano moved back to LF. The Cubs don’t appreciate Jones’s defense, which apparently is pretty good if he was the #5 CENTER fielder.
He’s a man without a place on the Cubs, though I’m surprised they couldn’t get more for a player whose contract is actually a bargain.
With the pitching Market the way it is, I bet Beane fleeces someone this winter.
#19–Borowski, perhaps?
Thanks Dave — that makes some more sense. On the surface at least, it looked to me like the Phillies gave up guys at positions they either have or are likely about to have gaping holes at, while the Astros potentially filled two needs on their end.
After all, I wouldn’t exactly get broken up about the Mariners trading away, say, Jeremy Reed and Yung-Chi Chen for a potentially dominant bullpen arm.
Does anything top J.C. Romero getting a 3 year contract for $12 million?
The guy walked 40 and struck out 42 in 56.1 innings this past year. He got lucky on BABIP and the other relievers not letting his runners score (91% strand rate according to someone on Sons of Sam Horn).
I’m stunned that Gillick gave him that contract.
Damn it, I’m hearing right now the Mariners might be sticking with Richie Sexson at first and Raul Ibanez at left. While Bavasi also believes Horacio Ramirez can turn it around under Mel Stottylemyre.
And we kept BB, why?
#17
Fat Joe is young, durable and cheap. He’s a 3/4 with two seasons (’04 and ’06) in front of a good defense where pretty much everything broke his way. He’s not a great pitcher but he is quite valuable at his current price tag, which means Beane won’t be giving him up unless he’s blown away. Unless Bavasi wants to give up a package centered around AJ I can’t see that deal getting done.
Tom
And where are you hearing this from – KJR?
I’ve said it before, Gillick can be genius and idiot all in the same breath. Him and Bowden.
We really need to try to get Geoff Jenkins. Fans need to protest in mass if we leave Ibanez in LF and Bavasi needs to be fired on the spot.
#16- According to the article, the Yankees are willing to give up Joba and Hughes for Johan Santana? I make that deal right now if I’m Minnesota.
27 John Hicky said as much in the PI this morning.
#25– “I’m hearing right now the Mariners might be sticking with Richie Sexson at first”
all I’ve read is Bavasi essentially acknowledging the unlikeliness of palming Sexson off on someone …
I heard the things about Richie through the P-I article and I heard about HoRam and Richie on MLB.com when they interviewed Bavasi at the GM Meetings.
Bavasi as quoted by Larue on thursday:
“We’re not just going to give [Sexson] up, but is he untouchable? No. We only have one of those on the team. We don’t have no-trade clauses in contracts. There is interest in Richie. And we will listen.”
Of course Bavasi is going to say something like that whether he plans on moving Sexson or not. He can’t go “We want to dump that bum for a bag of magic beans” or else the fans AND the players will be all over his ass, and if some GM is stupid enough to bite and actually trade Sexson for something useful, he has to use his poker face. He did basically say they’d listen, so you know he’ll try to make something happen.
Would the Yankees be one of those teams with “interest” in Sexson, since they have a big hole at first and expendable, expensive parts? Would it take more than Sexson and Mickolio to get someone like Damon? With Sexson off the books in one year, and an arm for a depleted bullpen, I would think that the Yankees would at least consider it. Plus, they don’t need Damon. Unless wishful thinking is severely clouding my judgment…
A hunch says we’ll see more trades this offseason, as many GM’s get fed up w/ the FA market. And just like the FA market you’ll see GM’s make boneheaded moves practically giving away free talent.
I’m not sure I’d give up Hughes and Joba for Santana even w/ an extension. He’ll want his payday, especially from the yanks, and he’s not the pitcher he was a couple years ago. He’s still a top starter, but he’s lost a little velocity. A low 90′s, left handeder with above average control, a wickedly deceptive change-up, and eats innings is nothing to cough at though. He’s also a really smart pitcher. He’ll be fine, I’m just not sure for how long.
#6 : I have bad news for you if Beane decides to put Haren on the trade market.I can without hestation say he’d never trade within the division mainly because it’s his policy and one he never varies from as far as I know.
Even he did the M’s don’t have the value he’d demand and Bavasi doesn’t have competent to even say Hi to the man without it costing the M’s a prospect.
#25,33-34: Bavasi has no intentions of trading Sexson and Ibanez they’re “proven veterans” look for Jones to go before either of them.
I heard this “there’s interest in so and so and we will listen” before out of Bavasi’s mouth.
Nothing happens except another top prospect for a proven veteran deal he loves so much which only results in bust and more wasted money.
Another GM gets a top talent that becomes a star for someone else’s club.
If there is anything very likely is a contract offer to HoRam if Bavasi thinks Stottlemyre can do something with him .
Bavasi is still looking to justify his trade of Soriano for him.
A Yankee fan of mine keeps emailing me a Sexson/ Giambi swap with the Yankees making the money match up. Would we be at all interested in the swap if it cost us the same for the one year? I know Giambi has been a mess and I’m not a huge fan of him but could it be a possibility to get a left handed spot in the order for a year? Of course thinking about it, he’d mostly be DH, but it could be something to consider?
#34: I wonder who he considers the one “untouchable”? It’s gotta be Felix, right? (Please?)
36: You’d want Damon why, exactly?
#38, well HoRam’s deal last year was for 1/$2.65M, so not exactly a back-breaker.
#38
Has Beane ever gone on record that he doesn’t trade within the division? I’m an A’s fan and can’t remember ever hearing that. Could be wrong, just don’t remember ever hearing that.
I think Beane mainly looks for the best deal. If the M’s were willing to give up a Mulder-type package for Haren he would make that deal. If you look at the other teams in the AL West the past few years:
1) Angels – Stoneman was notorious for not dealing prospects
2) M’s – No big-time prospects came through other than Felix, who was untouchable.
3)Rangers – Teixeira was the only prospect of any note to come up through their system.
Even if Beane would have wanted to trade intra-division, there simply wasn’t much he could have gotten done.
I think John Hicky was entertaining himself with possibilities to aquire pitching this winter, as far-fetched as they sound. Even he didn’t sound terribly optimistic though. I am just scared about the whole keeping Ibanez in left and Sexson at first. I thought when the season just ended I thought for sure Sexson was gone and Ibanez would be at first (or possibly Ibanez going to the Tigers). But who do we have to replace him in left since Jones is taking Guillen’s spot? I think pigs would fly before Bavasi and/or Mac would stick Balentien starting in left field.
I don’t know, if you’re only talking about untouchable prospects, then maybe Teixeira’s the only one. But who trades those guys, anyway? Kinsler, Danks and Volquez all have had their moments, whole years even, as notable prospects. And now they’ve got a few from the Braves, as well. Just sayin’.
Lidge = good move for Philly. Anytime you can upgrade your bullpen from Senor Petro Can Mesa, you’ve significantly increased its stock value.
As for Jones-Infante…ah, you gotta love the good old Cubbies — still making goofy trades after all these years and wondering if, somehow, next year will be “da year”.
Unless you want to give up Adam Jones, you aren’t getting Dan Haren.
I don’t see any reason or need to go after Damon at all…
If I had a TOR that I was willing to trade I’d expect a very talented young SP pitcher or 2 as a part of the package.
A:The M’s don’t have good enough SP prospects to make a move to get one without destroying the farm or trading Felix (AKA Destroying the Team.)
B:I’ve seen this one the other way with Bavasi who DIDN’T EVEN GET A PITCHER BACK! He ruined the string of aces going back to Langston being traded for another and got squat. Maybe someone will give up a young future ace for Reed to reinvigorate the string? Not with Bavasi at the helm.
C:Since Gillick is involved in this convo as well, he got 2 SP for that Faltering Ace he “had to deal” (R.J.) Granted R.J. had a brighter past than Garcia, but not nearly as much as the deficit futures between the best player Bavasi got (Reed?) and the worst player Gillick got (Halama.) Halama provided more for the M’s alone than ALL of the Prospects Bavasi Garnered for his Ace. More young talent…something Bavasi is supposedly much better at acquiring than Gillick. And yet again I read about Gillick setting his team up to get more young talent, but it seems nobody thinks he’s capable of that when it comes to M’s fans views.
48. Woody Woodward traded Randy Johnson in 1998. Gillick didn’t come along until the end of 1999 when he was greeted by Griffey’s trade demand.
On the surface at least, it looked to me like the Phillies gave up guys at positions they either have or are likely about to have gaping holes at, while the Astros potentially filled two needs on their end
The Phillies filled two needs on their end. In an earlier thread I quoted a bit from the NY Post:
I would think that the Yankees would at least consider it. Plus, they don’t need Damon.
The M’s don’t need Damon either. The already have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and several of them are cheaper and/or better.
Bavasi has no intentions of trading Sexson and Ibanez they’re “proven veterans†look for Jones to go before either of them.
So when did Bavasi tell you this? Or is it some kind of magical telepathic ability you have? Certainly Raul “face of the franchise” doesn’t look to be going anywhere, but I see no reason to be so certain about Sexson.
40 – I would think the untouchable would be Ichiro.
34. But I thought Clement and Jones and Felix were all untouchables?
52 I recall him saying that, maybe incorrectly…here’s something from Bakers Blog July 31st:
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2007/07/bavasi_on_deadline.html
“Bavasi indicated that the club formed a list of players considered pretty much untouchable and that Jones and Jeff Clement were on it.:
Sorry about the link, but there was a list here on how to do tags and I memorized it, then there was quicktags and I forgot, now…
Thought I was stopping the post…double posts: not good…
The move I suggested wasn’t to “go after Damon” because Damon is an overpaid outfielder. But, to get rid of Sexson, it is likely that the M’s would have to take on salary from someone else. Damon is an upgrade over Ibanez in left (right?) and a left-handed bat that can still get on base and steal 20. That’s a substantial upgrade over Sexson, which I think would be worth it for the extra year of crappy salary. Plus, the draft picks would be better when he leaves, and he fits into the “proven veteran” mold that Bavasi salivates over.
The Phillies filled two needs on their end. In an earlier thread I quoted a bit from the NY Post:
That’s flawed reasoning. Myers was going to fill a need in the bullpen or a need in the starting rotation. There was only one need in the first place, and Lidge addressed one of those needs.
It’s almost as bad as the old “getting a guy off the DL is like making a mid-season trade” line of BS.
49…total Brainfart…Some of the same is true of the trades, but Gillick was a few months off from having the RJ opportunity. It’s still a good comparison of what two Past Aces brought back. I guess I just can’t comprehend Woodward pulling off that coup. My mind won’t accept that it was him. So the Gillick Star Trade we’re talking about may have inadvertently led to a part of the reason the Garcia trade included the players it did. Nah, if I can blame Gillicks trade (Tomko/Davis)for Bavasi’s failure I can blame the Stupid trade of Varitek before the failure of Ben Davis (obviously might never have been acquired otherwise)for going after Olivo.
I honestly don’t know who got the better in the Griffey/Cameron/Tomko/Myers/Perez deal, but Cameron was great to watch. We got a compensatory pick for Cameron, does Gillick get credit for that? We got a compensatory pick for Timlin, who was that again…W/E
Anyway, I guess in hindsight The R.J. trade redeemed Woodward a little for the Cruz/Varitek/Lowe 97 bad idea fest. I admit I never missed Cruz’ defense though…maybe with Ibanez now…
Garciaparra…That’s who we have still from the Cruz trade…
Can we get a “The Market” post? I keep seeing ” had a year considering he makes million dollars.”
But seeing as how salaries (in my mind) seem to be escalating at an ever increasing rate, I’ve got no idea what’s the price for an “average” player at various positions.
Basically the addition of Lidge provides an arm with a skill set that should translate into similar production as Myers in high leverage relief situations. This allows the Phillies to then leverage Myers’ skill set to a much greater degree by moving him to the rotation. While it’s true that Myers would’ve filled a need without Lidge, the ability to leverage Myers to a greater extent does represent additional value IMHO.
#58: We got a compensatory pick for Cameron, does Gillick get credit for that?
No compensatory pick for Cameron. Gillick decided not to offer Cameron arbitration.
I’d pay to see a throwing contest from LF & RF between Raul & Damon …
“When Grown Men Throw Like Girls”… coming to a theater near you.
#58 Anyway, I guess in hindsight The R.J. trade redeemed Woodward a little for the Cruz/Varitek/Lowe 97 bad idea fest.
Not really. Woodward’s first deal for RJ was with the Dodgers, straight up for Wilton Guerrero and Ismael Valdez. The only reason that deal didn’t go through is because some influential members of the ownership group decided they weren’t quite yet ready to see RJ dealt. They didn’t object to the deal itself as not worth enough; they just didn’t think the Ms should be trading RJ. Within a month they obviously changed their minds.
Then Woody overplayed his hand, and the Yankees strung him out to the last hours before the trade deadline. The Yankees objective really seemed to be to keep the Mariners from completing a deal with Cleveland, and they succeeded. When they Yankees told Woodward they weren’t going to deal for Randy after all, hours before the trade deadline, the Houston deal was the only offer still left on the table.
I don’t think you can give Woodward credit for making a “good deal” when that good deal was only his third or fourth choice, and he was unable to recognize that the choice he ranked worst was actually the best.
#61 – that’s still not added value. They could have added that value my moving Myers to the rotation regardless. The only thing preventing that was sheer stupidity.
BEARMAN,
I have to know…are you in insider, Bavasi’s illegitimate son or somesuch, or do you just “know” in the cosmic sense what he will or will not do? No offense, just asking. The way you phrase things make it seem you have an in.
64:
“Brokeback Outfield”
I’d pay to see a throwing contest from LF & RF between Raul & Damon
Why?
Raul would win in a landslide. His problem isn’t his throwing arm, it’s his range. His arm is still solid, if not good. Damon’s, of course, is probably worse than my 6-year-old’s…
Raul would win in a landslide. His problem isn’t his throwing arm, it’s his range. His arm is still solid, if not good. Damon’s, of course, is probably worse than my 6-year-old’s…
could we put them both out there? Johnny to run it down, Raul to throw it in?
FWIW, Damon can be traded to only 12 teams without his permission, and prefers to stay on the East Coast, or maybe the Midwest…
The OF throwing contest to see would be Randy Winn vs. Johnny Damon.
I think a better contest would be who is better at making a routine flyball look like a webgem.
Maybe Bearman is Bavasi? It would kind of explain a lot….
But seeing as how salaries (in my mind) seem to be escalating at an ever increasing rate, I’ve got no idea what’s the price for an “average†player at various positions.
Actually, that isn’t true. Using USA Today’s payroll numbers, total MLB payroll growth over previous year:
’99 19%
’00 16%
’01 17%
’02 3%
’03 5%
’04 -3%
’05 6%
’06 6%
’07 7%
So salaries continue to grow, but not at an “ever-increasing” rate; in fact, growth has been pretty steady (and low, in historical terms) for six years now. Of course, that’s the total, which conceals the variations: the “extreme” salaries like Zito and (it would appear) ARod and Santana, do get ever more extreme — though some of that is the product of more years. (And yes, league-wide total payroll actually dropped from ’03 to ’04, mostly because Texas cut its payroll in half from $100M+ in ’03, but several others cut their payrolls by $14M-$20M that year; interestingly, the big drop in growth occured the year before the luxury tax, which was agreed in ’02 and first implemented in ’03).
I have a spreadsheet where I was trying to figure out the average salary at each position, but it’s a little hard to figure out the right calculation: do you throw out the league-minimums and just do the average of the free agent salaries? Do you include only starters, or anybody who played that position at least n times (what do you do about platooned outfielders, for instance)?
69 – I’d call his arm average, at best. Certainly not as bad as Damon’s, but “solid” is a bit of a stretch. Arm strength isn’t completely lost yet, but his accuracy leaves quite a bit to be desired.
#73: So salaries continue to grow, but not at an “ever-increasing†rate; in fact, growth has been pretty steady (and low, in historical terms) for six years now. Of course, that’s the total, which conceals the variations: the “extreme†salaries like Zito and (it would appear) ARod and Santana, do get ever more extreme — though some of that is the product of more years.
Increases in “extreme” salaries might also result from some teams deciding that mid-tier talent has been overpriced, but top tier talent is more scarce and more valuable. That doesn’t need to be a universal perception; only a handful of teams need reach that conclusion to cause top salaries to ratchet up more quickly.
Sabathia gets the Cy Young
And that is in fact a correct perception. The top-paid players should be getting more money, and the second tier tends to be a very overpaid group. So maybe more teams are figuring that out.
#77 And that is in fact a correct perception. The top-paid players should be getting more money, and the second tier tends to be a very overpaid group. So maybe more teams are figuring that out.
I agree, and I also believe that many teams aren’t very effective at separating players into the appropriate tiers. The result is that a lot of top talent money is given to players who aren’t.
77/78
From there it becomes easy to see how Billy Beane exploits the margins and ends up getting those second-tier players at bargain basement prices because they weren’t the “hot” names on that list. Then they walk after he (probably) gets more than his money’s worth out of them, and he gets the compensatory picks in return, thus exacerbating/maximizing the operational efficiency divide between the A’s and the reckless spenders.
#51,67,and 73: I’m not an insider just a very constant follower of all rumors,printed word and web searchs to gather a good amount of intel that allows me to make some possible conclusions that logically follow.
Add in what we all know is Bavasi’s proven record of decimal trades,bust FA singings,and his haboit of overpaying veterans while rarely use that money to lock up young players unless forced by popularity with the fans.
Felix Hernandez who is so key to any winning rotation the M’s may be able to put together in the next couple seasons as far as I know hasn’t been offer an extension contract to avoid the arbitration years.
As to me being Bavasi think do you actually think any of those incompetent FO people read these blogs and forums?
The current FO’s only real mission is to insure a fat profit not a winner however they do just enough to give M’s fans hope thus keeps them coming.
ONly 100% housecleaning top to bottom of present FO with only few exceptions will the M’s ever see a World Series contender in Seattle.
Then the new FO takes the tact that is combination of Beane’s methods in Oakland with the real money needed to back it up with FA signs to make it work.
80 – Players Felix’s age with his service time don’t generally get long term extensions. You earn your stripes as a young cheap option, then cash in with a big pay day.
If teams went out and gave big money all their young players who have obvious potential, they’d end up with a bunch of busts and injured players who never reach their expectations, and a lot of blown cash. Let’s leave that dumb idea to the NFL (See: Vick, Michael).