Rumblings from the Meetings

Dave · December 3, 2007 at 1:59 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Quick reactions to some of the rumors going around right now:

1. M’s interested in Edwin Jackson? Woohoo. We’ve been pushing for the M’s to pick up one of Tampa’s excess starters for months. Jackson’s a good arm and would fit in well as a buy low, high upside candidate. He’s a lot better than the mainstream opinion would have you believe.

2. M’s interested in dealing Richie Sexson? One year too late, but again, woohoo. This is the most obvious move of the winter – dump Sexson for whatever you can get, freeing up a position to get Ibanez out of the outfield, and sign a legitimate defensive LF (Geoff Jenkins!) to improve the defense.

3. M’s out of Johan Santana sweepstakes – not a big surprise, and something I’m totally fine with.

4. M’s have offered Hideki Kuroda either a 3 year, $30 million deal or a 4 year, $44 million deal, depending on who you believe. I’m still holding to the stance that we don’t have enough information to make any real informed opinions on either side, but man, $44 million for a guy with no outpitch?

So far, the rumors are at least mostly encouraging. But let’s see them actually do something productive before we get too excited.

Comments

111 Responses to “Rumblings from the Meetings”

  1. Mo Vaughn Is My Hero on December 3rd, 2007 2:16 pm

    We all know what’s really going to happen Dave. There’s all these good rumors and then in the next few days, we’ll see “Seattle Mariners trade P Felix Hernandez to Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for OF Reggie Willits”. That happens every year.

  2. Dave on December 3rd, 2007 2:18 pm

    Pointless pessimism isn’t any better than pointless optimism.

  3. Mo Vaughn Is My Hero on December 3rd, 2007 2:20 pm

    I try to be optimistic Dave, I really do. But with the way this team is run, it’s incredibly difficult.

  4. wokster on December 3rd, 2007 2:21 pm

    1. I don’t keep up on the talent levels of players outside of the M’s system but I know you were hoping for JP Howell (spelling?) from TB. Where does Jackson stand in terms of that?

    I guess the real question, suggesting we land someone from TB: How would you list the Depth Chart for the ML Ready pitchers they have. Kazmir, Shields… then who?

    2. Huzzah! I won’t be 21 till January, but rounds on me if we get him out of Seattle.

    3. Meh, I’ll be happy if we can pick up some cheap pitching via trade this season instead of selling the farm on a single pitcher.

    4. I’d rather spend this money to get Sexson out of town (paying part of his salary) and keep looking for trade avenues, but we seem to have good luck with Japanese imports unlike other teams (insert any of the available busts here).

    How bad would Ibanez be at 1st? I know he doesn’t have the legs to play the OF anymore, but you do have to be at least somewhat graceful to play 1b. Is it just the lesser of two evils (LF vs 1B) or would he be “replacement level” defense with a solid bat at first?

    OF: Jenkins, Suzuki, Jones
    IF: Beltre, Betancourt, ???, Ibanez, Johjima

    The changes from last year are Jones over Guillen and Jenkins over Sexson while moving Ibanez out of the OF. I guess that’s a minor upgrade on offense and a great defensive upgrade. I’ll allow it :)

    What other options are out there besides Jenkings? Anyone up on the trade block?

  5. CrepuscularPoet on December 3rd, 2007 2:22 pm

    It seems that pointless pessimism is part of a huge number of M’s fans. Anyway, we all know Felix is untouchable. To be honest, other then Felix and maybe Beltre, I would not mind any of our players moving.

  6. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 2:23 pm

    3 – Why even pay attention then. It seems the Mariners are at least mostly trying to make moves that make sense and are logical. Regardless of the past, there is reason to be encouraged.

  7. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 2:24 pm

    By the way, did anyone happen to hear from anywhere what sort of package we were offering for Johan when we were in the sweepstakes? Just curious.

  8. CrepuscularPoet on December 3rd, 2007 2:25 pm

    Clement, Morrow and Jones is what I heard…

  9. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 2:27 pm

    Also, Dave, I know you are high on signing Jeremy Affeldt. Rumor has it he is asking 4 years 16 million, would you land him at that price?

  10. Kwickie on December 3rd, 2007 2:29 pm

    John Heyman at SI is reporting the Mariners are in the mix for Erik Bedard.

    Quote from the article:

    “Speaking about the sometimes overlooked left-hander Bedard, one scout said, “Top five … he’s one the top five starters in the game.””

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/12/03/monday.scoop/index.html

  11. Bat9th on December 3rd, 2007 2:36 pm

    The M’s should try and get Bedard quick. Before either NY or Boston miss out on Santana and put all their effort towards Bedard.

  12. Pete on December 3rd, 2007 2:41 pm

    #10: That won’t happen. The whole point is Baltimore is waiting to see what happens with Santana to even think about making a move. They have no reason to rush anything at all. The likelihood of even making a Bedard deal is slim anyway. If the Mariners are fishing for these guys, they are going to lose every time.

  13. Pete on December 3rd, 2007 2:42 pm

    Meant #11

  14. Evan on December 3rd, 2007 2:45 pm

    4/44 is what I expect someone (maybe us) to pay for Livan Hernandez, so I think I’d rather have Kuroda for that money.

  15. bermanator on December 3rd, 2007 2:47 pm

    I like Jackson — the only downside compared to Howell is that Jackson has a bit more service time. But he’s still really young, and his upside is a lot better than the guys currently at the back end of the M’s rotation.

  16. soggys on December 3rd, 2007 2:48 pm

    [Piniella]

  17. CrepuscularPoet on December 3rd, 2007 2:54 pm

    15
    That can be looked at either way…service time in young players (to me at least) is a bit of a plus.

  18. kolson82 on December 3rd, 2007 2:56 pm

    Bedard, anyone?

    Yes please.

  19. wallywwu on December 3rd, 2007 3:03 pm

    44 Million for a guy with no out pitch is better than the 48 million we already gave a guy with no out pitch.

  20. wallywwu on December 3rd, 2007 3:05 pm

    Although I realize that should have no factor at all on what the M’s do with their money now.

  21. Logger on December 3rd, 2007 3:05 pm

    #18

    A depleted farm system?

    No thanks.

  22. Evan on December 3rd, 2007 3:13 pm

    #21 – It’s worth a shot. The Orioles are run by a pygmy marmoset; you never know what he’ll do.

  23. Bat9th on December 3rd, 2007 3:14 pm

    #21

    Trading 3 prospects should never deplete a farm system. Maybe that says something about the people we have running things down there. Also what are the chances even 1 of those 3 becomes a good player? Not very good. Bedard is a proven ace, which is the hardest thing to come by in baseball.

  24. The Ancient Mariner on December 3rd, 2007 3:15 pm

    This all sounds very good; the one thing that worries me is that the rumblings this time last year were encouraging, too. What actually happened . . . wasn’t.

  25. Logger on December 3rd, 2007 3:17 pm

    #22

    If what I have read is true, the O’s want a ton in return, including Jones.

    #23

    I agree. It wouldn’t completely deplete the farm system but trading your no. 1 prospect (Jones) and other top prospects would be damaging to the system.

  26. Logger on December 3rd, 2007 3:19 pm

    #23

    There is a very decent chance that Jones becomes a good player.

  27. HighHardOne on December 3rd, 2007 3:20 pm

    #23

    Exactly, the only teams hurt by trading 3 prospects for an ace would be the Tacoma Rainers and whatever sap trades his bonified #1 starter for 3 guys that may or may not be selling used cars in 2 years.

  28. gwangung on December 3rd, 2007 3:28 pm

    Trading 3 prospects should never deplete a farm system. Maybe that says something about the people we have running things down there.

    Or, at least, who WERE running things.

    Bavasi’s been here four years…and right about now is just about the time when we SHOULD be expecting results from the farm system. I can’t understand why people would expect results before now…

  29. Tek Jansen on December 3rd, 2007 3:32 pm

    #22 — He would urinate on Johnny Carson’s head, if Carson were still alive.

    Did I just show my age with that reference.

  30. Tek Jansen on December 3rd, 2007 3:33 pm

    #22 — He would urinate on Johnny Carson’s head, if Carson were still alive.

    Did I just show my age with that reference?

  31. Tek Jansen on December 3rd, 2007 3:34 pm

    I apologize. My computer is as old as I am.

  32. Bat9th on December 3rd, 2007 3:40 pm

    #26 True Jones looks like he could be a good player… but still never know. Reed looked to be a lock for a good player. We all know how that has panned out so far. I personally like proven players especially when it comes to number 1 type pitchers. The others guys like Balentien and Clement are interesting but its a toss up if they ever become anything.

  33. Steve Nelson on December 3rd, 2007 3:46 pm

    Jim Street proves he can be funny even without a Mariners Mailbag foil.

    “Rays right-hander Edwin Jackson emerged on Monday as a potential starting candidate. The former Dodgers farmhand, drafted during Bavasi’s tenure in Los Angeles, reportedly is available for either a young catcher or a more established outfielder/first baseman.

    The Mariners might be willing to swap catcher Rob Johnson to the Rays or possibly Ben Broussard, who can play the outfield and first base.”

    Yeah, Jim, that’s right. The Rays are going to swap Edwin Jackson for Rob Johnson.

  34. gwangung on December 3rd, 2007 3:57 pm

    #26 True Jones looks like he could be a good player… but still never know. Reed looked to be a lock for a good player. We all know how that has panned out so far. I personally like proven players especially when it comes to number 1 type pitchers. The others guys like Balentien and Clement are interesting but its a toss up if they ever become anything.

    Good to see you, Mr. Armstrong. But I thought you didn’t think much of blogs….

  35. MarinerDan on December 3rd, 2007 4:08 pm

    I am all in favor of taking a flier on Edwin Jackson (provided he doesn’t cost too much). It never hurts to stockpile young pitching to see if any of it shakes out.

    That would give us:

    Morrow
    Jackson
    RRS
    Baek
    ??

    All fighting for a role at the back of the starting rotation. I could live with that.

  36. Evan on December 3rd, 2007 4:10 pm

    #33 – Did Street just confuse the two LA teams?

  37. Mike Snow on December 3rd, 2007 4:10 pm

    For that matter, the outfield and first base are such obvious positions of need for the Rays.

  38. MindlessBabble on December 3rd, 2007 4:13 pm

    “Sounds like the Mariners might make a run at Bedard now, but it’d cost ‘em Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, and Jeff Clement.”

    Do you not make that deal right away?

  39. IdahoInvader on December 3rd, 2007 4:15 pm

    I keep fearing that Morrow will only be the next Bobby Witt.

  40. arbeck on December 3rd, 2007 4:17 pm

    Bat9th,

    I think you are giving Reed more credit than most did. Dave said many times Reed’s upside was Rusty Greer or Mark Kotsay. Serviceable major leaguers they are, but nothing special. I think at this point you almost have to say Jones’ upside is much higher, and even if he doesn’t become a great player he could have a Tori Hunter or Mike Cameron type career.

  41. Wood Dog on December 3rd, 2007 4:19 pm

    The Bedard bidding hasn’t even begun. He was having a better year than Johan was, before he got hurt last season. Pretty expensive though if we have to trade AJ, Morrow, and Clement to get him… oh and pay him what, $15M a year?

  42. Steve Nelson on December 3rd, 2007 4:23 pm

    #36 #33 – Did Street just confuse the two LA teams?

    I don’t think so. Jackson came up with the Dodgers. 6th round pick by the Dodgers in 2001.

  43. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 4:37 pm

    38 – It’s very tempting, but I don’t think I’d do it in a heartbeat and I think it may end up taking more to get him. It’s not like the M’s are the only ones after Bedard. I personally think signing Kuroda and trading for Jackson would be enough to make our rotation considerably better then last years without having to give up Jones or Morrow. But having Bedard would be nice, especially since he’s signed through 09. Its a tough call.

  44. RussM on December 3rd, 2007 4:38 pm

    I don’t think Bavasi was a member of the Dodgers front office when Jackson was drafted. I think he started a year later in 2002.

  45. Bat9th on December 3rd, 2007 4:39 pm

    #34 Me saying I like proven #1 type pitchers is a bad thing? lol. Its one thing trading for old, middle of the rotation players. It is a totally different thing trading for a proven number 1 guy. Those players don’t grow on trees and if you want one you have to give something of value. I would easily trade Jones for him. Well I don’t know Bedards contract situation, if hes still locked up for a while then yeah I would.

    #4O Kotsay wasn’t a bad player. Maybe my expectations were higher than some here.. but alot of people thought he would be a good player. I never said great just good.

    All I am saying is no one knows how good these players will be in the majors. Jones can be great but also he can be a marginal type player. If he is the key in getting a player like Bedard then they should consider it. I’m not saying trading the farm for a bunch of vets is a good idea at all. Landing a stud number 1 pitcher is a different story.

    Replacing a good outfielder is alot easier than getting a true top of the rotation pitcher. Just my opinion.

  46. Wood Dog on December 3rd, 2007 4:41 pm

    mlbtraderumors.com mentions the possibility of the Mariners acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Indians inreturn for Raul Ibanez.

    Lee huh? Pretty bad year in ’07, but he’d be cheap, and I guess had some pretty solid years recently before then. But trading one of our top hitters? Sounds a little desperate.

  47. Steve Nelson on December 3rd, 2007 4:43 pm

    #46: mlbtraderumors.com mentions the possibility of the Mariners acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Indians inreturn for Raul Ibanez.

    another rumor has Lee going to the Pirates as part of a deal for Bay.

  48. gwangung on December 3rd, 2007 4:49 pm

    All I am saying is no one knows how good these players will be in the majors.

    Yes, we heard you the first time, Mr. Armstrong.

    And if you’ve been reading this site for long, you’d know that’s not a particularly wise thing to say, and is, in fact, not supported by the facts.

  49. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 4:54 pm

    46 – Agreed. I don’t think Ibanez should be dealt unless someone really wants him bad. He’s a productive bat and I’d like to see Sexson dealt and he could play first or some other scenario he could DH.

  50. lailaihei on December 3rd, 2007 4:54 pm

    @45: Why get rid of our young talent now when the result doesn’t even give us implications of a championship?

  51. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 4:56 pm

    From ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark -

    • Free agent Marcus Giles has attracted interest from the Rockies and Mariners. Colorado is trying to sign Mark Loretta to replace Kaz Matsui, and Giles is one of their fallback options if they lose out on Loretta. Seattle would be interested if it trades Jose Lopez.

  52. Logger on December 3rd, 2007 4:58 pm

    Anyone know how Giles’ rates defensively?

  53. seattleslew on December 3rd, 2007 5:04 pm

    Is there any interest in Freddy Garcia from the M’s when he returns?

  54. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 5:06 pm

    52- I don’t, but he had a .621 OPS in the NL last year… I’ll take Lopez any day, unless we have to deal him to get significantly better at another position such as starting pitching.

  55. Wood Dog on December 3rd, 2007 5:14 pm

    Good lord, Giles is a train wreck. I *think* he’s still good defensively, but he’s a huge downgrade from Lopez in the lineup.

  56. pensive on December 3rd, 2007 5:16 pm

    Anyone, Is Bedard actually worth our three best prospects? Jones, Morrow, Clement? Perhaps another prospect other than Jones.

    It just seems quite a steep price to pay. I realize one must give value to receive like value in return. It just seems too much.

    Great to have Bedard herebut at what cost?

  57. Bat9th on December 3rd, 2007 5:18 pm

    #48 You are borderline insulting. I read your Mr Armstrong reference before too.. Haven’t seen that a thousand times on here. Shame people have their own opinions.

    #50 (Thanks for actual conversation) Yeah good point. That is definitely something to consider. The M’s need more than one player thats for sure, but a number 1 starter is a good start. Do you think a productive Adam Jones next season would help more than Bedard?

  58. davepaisley on December 3rd, 2007 5:21 pm

    #27 – it’s bona fide, not bonified. What do you even think that means – turned into bone or something?

    http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/bona%20fide
    http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/bona%20fides

  59. MarinerDan on December 3rd, 2007 5:27 pm

    Good lord, Giles is a train wreck. I *think* he’s still good defensively, but he’s a huge downgrade from Lopez in the lineup.

    Hmm. Not sure I agree with this. They were both awful last year.

    Giles: 229/304/317

    Lopez: 252/289/355

    Yuck all the way around. Both parks are tough on hitters.

    Lopez is (allegedly) 5 years younger, but I still like Giles. He was raking as recently as 2 years ago. If Lopez was part of a deal bringing talent back to the M’s, I wouldn’t shed too many tears seeing Marcus Giles replace him (at least in the short term).

  60. Tom on December 3rd, 2007 5:29 pm

    I would like to see a post on why Edwin Jackson is undervalued, please.

  61. Tom on December 3rd, 2007 5:29 pm

    I would like to see a post on why Edwin Jackson is undervalued, please.

  62. Tom on December 3rd, 2007 5:29 pm

    Ooops, sorry, double post. Damn browser.

  63. Jeff Sullivan on December 3rd, 2007 5:32 pm

    Now it’s a triple post.

    At this stage in his career, Marcus Giles is a -10 < x < 0 defender at second. He’s a pretty awful player.

  64. bellacaramella on December 3rd, 2007 5:33 pm

    Isn’t there a WordPress plug-in that recognizes and automatically deletes outrageous trade proposals?

  65. Spanky on December 3rd, 2007 5:35 pm

    Wasn’t it possible to have Giles for NOTHING last year when he was released??? Why make a trade for him when it’s possible to pick him up later after he get’s released?

  66. HamNasty on December 3rd, 2007 5:37 pm

    We might as well keep Lopez so we can make fun of Fat Jose #1 and Fat Jose #2. One use to play 2nd base and the other one is still trying. Their battle versus cake has taken them from All-Star games to buffets and blog jokes. Which one will piss us off the most next summer?? The suspense is amazing!

  67. MarinerDan on December 3rd, 2007 5:46 pm

    Wasn’t it possible to have Giles for NOTHING last year when he was released??? Why make a trade for him when it’s possible to pick him up later after he get’s released?

    It wouldn’t be a trade — he’s a free agent.

    And while Giles certainly isn’t a world-beater, neither is Jose Lopez. Youth, perhaps, is on his side, but he was pretty awful last year.

  68. juneau_fan on December 3rd, 2007 5:49 pm

    Giles is also rumoured to be on a certain list that’s going to be released soon. If the M’s front office was scared off of Guillen because of such matters, why would that be sniffy around this old dog?

    Oh wait, he’s gritty and a veteran!

  69. stevie_j13 on December 3rd, 2007 5:52 pm

    Jerry Craznick has Josh Hamilton on the block potentially for pitching. Considering his past, plus his recent injury issues, would that shrink the market for him, even though he posted fantastic numbers when he did play? Left-handed pop who plays plus outfield defense and doesn’t make any money would be a very nice addition, and would make trading Adam Jones for top-quality starting pitching more palatable. Also, his rebirth would be a great story for Steve Kelley to right five 800 word, 300 paragraph columns. Some kind of Morrow/Hamilton deal? Or would the Reds, heaven help me, be willing to take one of our established veteran starters?

    Oh, and Marcus Giles, no thank you. Why would we go that direction when an under-performing Lopez is still better (and cheaper)?

  70. stevie_j13 on December 3rd, 2007 5:53 pm

    Jerry Craznick has Josh Hamilton on the block potentially for pitching. Considering his past, plus his recent injury issues, would that shrink the market for him, even though he posted fantastic numbers when he did play? Left-handed pop who plays plus outfield defense and doesn’t make any money would be a very nice addition, and would make trading Adam Jones for top-quality starting pitching more palatable. Also, his rebirth would be a great story for Steve Kelley to write five 800 word, 300 paragraph columns. Some kind of Morrow/Hamilton deal? Or would the Reds, heaven help me, be willing to take one of our established veteran starters?

    Oh, and Marcus Giles, no thank you. Why would we go that direction when an under-performing Lopez is still better (and cheaper)?

  71. utopianlaw on December 3rd, 2007 5:53 pm

    mlbtraderumors said that the M’s have talked to Melvin about Ben Sheets. While he gets hurt alot, maybe he can get him for a discount without giving up Jones (which is why trading him for Bedard is making me nervous).

  72. stevie_j13 on December 3rd, 2007 5:54 pm

    sorry about the double-post

  73. terry on December 3rd, 2007 5:58 pm

    Even if Jackson flames out as a starter, the switch to the pen is usually associated with about a 30-35% increase in Krate and a 20% decrease in BB rate (please someone correct me if I’m quoting outdated numbers) which would suggest Jackson would still have potential to be a high leverage bullpen arm.

    BTW, there was a recent USSM thread devoted to why the arms in the back end of Tampa’s rotation could be considered undervalued.

  74. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 5:58 pm

    Sheets is intriguing. Wonder what the Brewers are asking for.

  75. MarinerDan on December 3rd, 2007 5:58 pm

    Oh, and Marcus Giles, no thank you. Why would we go that direction when an under-performing Lopez is still better (and cheaper)?

    Again, not to be the resident Giles-phile here, but your statement is a bit misleading. The acquisition of Giles presupposes that Lopez is dealt (which, according to rumor #5729 noted above, has been/is/will be/might be discussed). So, it is not replacing the one with the other, it is replacing Lopez with Giles (cheap, 1-year deal) + whatever we might get back for Lopez (presumably Lopez + other parts in a package deal).

  76. scottg02 on December 3rd, 2007 6:03 pm

    75 – Right on the money. I don’t favor Giles over Lopez, however if Lopez is used to get a piece Giles could be a cheap 1 year replacement and I’d be for it.

  77. Mike Snow on December 3rd, 2007 6:06 pm

    Everything there is to say about Marcus Giles can be summed up with the end of Bret Boone’s career.

  78. gwangung on December 3rd, 2007 6:16 pm

    #48 You are borderline insulting. I read your Mr Armstrong reference before too.. Haven’t seen that a thousand times on here. Shame people have their own opinions.

    Well, I’d consider it borderline insulting to repeat the mantra about young players when this site has always been about trying to make the best use of talent. Shame on people for ignoring the dozens of posts by the blog’s authors pointing out the use of rookies and young players by the teams that made it to the playoffs-it’s a sloppy form of argument.

    Now, if you want to go back and say the loss of x runs from Jones, Clement and Morrow over probable substitutes over the next couple of years would be made up by Bedard, I’d be more than happy to accept that as an argument (if it’s strong enough, you might even convince me).

    But aphorisms you were using rely on imprecise qualitative arguments over more precise quantitative arguments, and ones that we heard quite a bit from the team that were derided. I think the state of the art in baseball has gotten further than that.

    You have an opinion, fine. But that doesn’t mean it won’t go unchallenged by other folks.

  79. Bat9th on December 3rd, 2007 6:37 pm

    #78 Wow… Nevermind. Let it go.

  80. lailaihei on December 3rd, 2007 6:47 pm

    #57: Bat9th, Bedard would be almost surely more productive (barring any injury or insane breakout by Jones). But I’m not looking for next year’s team to be a championship team, I don’t think they’ll be a championship team for at least a couple of years. Getting Bedard now at the expense of our future will just prolong our mediocrity.
    Just my 2¢

  81. bakomariner on December 3rd, 2007 6:57 pm

    if all four rumors are true, then we’ll have a heck of a week…dumping sexson and getting raul to first would be huge defensively…

    rotation of
    Felix
    Batista
    Kuroda
    Washburn
    Jackson

    that would be a heck of a lot better than last year…

    if we could do all those moves, and still keep guillen (i know, it’s not gonna happen, and i would be cook with jenkins) i’m a happy camper…

  82. bakomariner on December 3rd, 2007 6:58 pm

    -81

    i meant “cool” with jenkins…

  83. msb on December 3rd, 2007 7:00 pm

    There’s all these good rumors and then in the next few days, we’ll see “Seattle Mariners trade P Felix Hernandez to Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for OF Reggie Willits”. That happens every year.

    and it was just ’04 when the winter meetings led to Beltre and Sexson

    #22–Stark had a line this morning, “Angelos also looms as a potential impediment to dealing Bedard.”

  84. Deanna on December 3rd, 2007 7:13 pm

    I feel somehow obliged to point out that Kuroda’s first name is actually Hiroki.

  85. RussM on December 3rd, 2007 8:23 pm

    Also, while we’re on the topic, it’s Kosuke Fukudome… I’ve seen it spelled many ways in the past few months!

  86. CrepuscularPoet on December 3rd, 2007 8:34 pm

    Flame me all you want…

    I would trade Jones, Clement and Morrow for Bedard many times over. That guy is a stud and is considered (to some) as one of the best pitchers in baseball.

  87. gwangung on December 3rd, 2007 9:05 pm

    Flame me all you want…
    I would trade Jones, Clement and Morrow for Bedard many times over. That guy is a stud and is considered (to some) as one of the best pitchers in baseball.

    Um, no flames, but why? I’m asking for a justification. Stud pitchers are fine, but do we have a rough idea of what we’re getting for what we’re giving up?

  88. CrepuscularPoet on December 3rd, 2007 9:12 pm

    Mainly off hunches to be honest. I think the trio will be good, but nothing too special. Although they are rookies, and have small sample sizes, I just am not as into them as the Mariners nation seems to be. On the other hand, I think Bedard would fit into Safeco well and has the chance to grow into something very special. I cant remember the link or the site, but one scout thinks Bedard is a top 5 pitcher…in the whole league.

  89. Dave on December 3rd, 2007 9:27 pm

    I’ll take legitimate analysis over random hunches myself.

  90. etowncoug on December 3rd, 2007 9:39 pm

    I’ll pass on Edwin Jackson unless the M’s are able to acquire him for spare parts.

    Maybe he’ll learn how to throw strikes and he will become a really good pitcher. Until that happens, I don’t see him as an improvement over Cha Baek.

  91. Dave on December 3rd, 2007 9:46 pm

    Edwin Jackson xFIP: 5.02
    Miguel Batista xFIP: 5.07

    They’re basically the same pitcher. Same skillset, same pitch types, similar velocities, same lousy command. 23-year-old Miguel Batistas are worth more than spare parts.

  92. imfinkspa on December 3rd, 2007 9:47 pm

    I’m a pretty big fan of Bedard and he has some fairly obvious things going for him. He has a superb K rate and good control, with his K rate trending up. Moreover, he went deeper into games last year, than he had any prior year, and by a fair margin (while starting 5 less games). He is fairly young at 28 and under control for 2 more years. He should be amenable to a buyout of his arb years and even a fairly long deal (say 5 or 6 years) doesn’t take him too far out of his prime.

    He also has significant drawbacks, however. He missed the better part of 2002 and 2003 with injuries and actually saw his innings pitched decline in 2000 and 2001. As well as he has pitched each of the last 3 years, he has missed some significant time each year.

    I suppose, if you think the Mariners are one big starter from contending in the next 3-4 years (his expected peak years), then it may be worth Jones, Clement, and Balentien. If the M’s are not a real contender in the near future, the young ‘uns may have more value elsewhere.

    There is some merit to the argument that Jones, Clement, and Balentien aren’t sure enough bets to hold up a deal for a pitcher of Bedard’s substantial upside, but legitimate risks.

    I think it is a legitimate concern that Adam Jones develops into Torii Hunter with only league average defense or worse. It reasonable to be concerned that Clement will not stick behind the plate and his bat won’t play at first or that Balentien plays a poor corner and fails to make enough contact to take advantage of his power topping out at Kevin Mench. But you do get three shots at the prize by keeping them and, even if you insist on trading them, you might be able to spread your risk finding different partners.

    Frankly, I haven’t formed an opinion one way or the other at this point and I’m skeptical that the M’s will be able to outbid the other suitors. I do think it is stretch, however, to refer to a pitcher with Bedard’s health history and spotty performance (however well it is trending) as a sure ace or stud, as both terms suggest to me a player who could be relied on to take the ball 32-35 times a year and give you 200+ innings at least every other year.

  93. CrepuscularPoet on December 3rd, 2007 9:58 pm

    “Dave Says:

    I’ll take legitimate analysis over random hunches myself.”

    Perfect reason why I’m not a GM.

  94. msb on December 3rd, 2007 10:02 pm

    Baker weighs in on the pitching rumoring at the end of the day.

  95. gaylordperrysplitter on December 3rd, 2007 10:02 pm

    Back to #46 from earlier, also on Baker’s blog, etc. . . rumors of Raul straight up for Cliff Lee. Would Safeco and a change of scenery help Lee or is he done?

  96. Steve Nelson on December 3rd, 2007 10:19 pm

    #88: 88 Mainly off hunches to be honest.

    The original Tacoma Narrows bridge was designed off of hunches and extrapolations. The second bridge was based on legitimate structural analysis.

    But let’s set that aside for the moment. Can you please explain to us why we should accord your hunches more weight, than, say Madonna’s?? Why should your hunches be considered more noteworthy than those of other posters?

    IOW – it’s fine to have a hunch. But if you want to be taken seriously you need to make a case for why your hunches are worthy of being taken seriously. Until you make that case, don’t be surprised if you’re derided when the sum of your argument is “Because I said so.”

  97. gwangung on December 3rd, 2007 10:25 pm

    Mainly off hunches to be honest.

    Hm. I think even traditional baseball folks work off of something more solid than that…

    The ideas of Stars and Scrubs is to get superstar players, yes, but to surround them with cheap, underpaid people under your control that, at worst, can be replaced readily, and could provide very pleasant surprises at best. You know…people like Jones, Clement and Morrow…

  98. nathaniel dawson on December 3rd, 2007 11:13 pm

    Spot on, imfink.

    I love what Bedard did last year, but I’m not willing to put him in (or near) the same class as Santana until he can put up the same kind of production while pitching a couple full seasons.

    Ibanez for Cliff Lee would be a great move for the M’s (as always, with the caveat that he’s healthy). Lee hasn’t been particularly good, but he’s certainly been what you would call a “league average or better starter”. His biggest problem has been the number of homeruns he has allowed, and being a left-hander, we might see that drop substantially pitching in Safeco Field. We should be pretty well aware what it would cost us on the open market for a pitcher of his caliber.

    Also, it’s the right time to trade Ibanez. He has a great deal of value to other teams right now because of his recent production and a very attractive contract. He also looks like a big risk to regress offensively next season. Better to get something of value from him while we can.

  99. shupurrs on December 3rd, 2007 11:56 pm

    I would love if Bavasi thought like this:
    * Clement and Reed to the Brewers for Sheets
    * Reed, Balentien, Sexson, and Washburn/Chris Tillman for Bedard and scraps
    * Rob Johnson, Morrow and Baek for Edwin Jackson and Wade Davis
    * Ibanez, Jones and O’Flaherty to the Indians for Cliff Lee and Sizemore

  100. Mike Honcho on December 4th, 2007 12:13 am

    99 – You mean you would love it if Bavasi had some sort of mental handicap?

    That’s cold…

  101. Matt from Tacoma on December 4th, 2007 12:57 am

    Who the hell came up with an Ibanez for Cliff Lee rumor? That’s absolutely ridiculous. The M’s wouldn’t trade Ibanez for a new stadium.

    OK, Dave, I’ll bite. Batista has been a five win player for pretty much every year since 2001. Jackson hasn’t yet done that in his career. Yeah, he’s got potentially electric stuff, but he’s also walking 3 guys for every 5 innings. Look at his PECOTA list, or the people Baseball Reference compares him to – not exactly a group of people who put it together in their age 24 seasons. Yeah, he could turn into an above average starter, but he could also be out of the league for good by June of next year. If you can get him for Sherrill, fine, but I wouldn’t give a blue chipper for him.

    Report is out that Guillen signed with the Royals for 3 years, $36M. I expect that both parties will regret this by the all-star break.

  102. Matt from Tacoma on December 4th, 2007 1:00 am

    #99 – I think if you suggested that the Orioles would part with Erik Bedard for Richie, Jerrod, and the worst 2/3 of the Rainiers outfield on KJR, they’d have to activate the seven second delay, because that’s profane. Really, you’d have to take on all the nuclear waste in Nevada to swallow the rest of those two contracts.

  103. milendriel on December 4th, 2007 1:15 am

    99- I know the Soriano for HoRam trade might have confused you, but baseball trades generally do not consist of one team foisting off their garbage onto another team in exchange for some of their best talent.

  104. Pete on December 4th, 2007 4:05 am

    #99 – “I would love if Bavasi thought like this: …”

    Dude, I would also love if I could spin poo into gold. But I’m no Rumpelstiltskin.

    ….was it poo, or straw?

  105. terry on December 4th, 2007 4:44 am

    #99: I too would love it if the rest of the league was less intelligent than the Ms FO….

    :-)

  106. mrmitra on December 4th, 2007 5:25 am

    It was reported on mlbtraderumors.com that no one was interested in Sexson. Sadly I think he remains a Mariner unless we swap bad contracts with someone.

  107. dcmarinerfan on December 4th, 2007 5:50 am

    #99: If Bavasi can somehow work out trading a guy (Reed) twice, in addition to getting the Indians to give up a guy that Baseball-Reference compares to Duke Snider, then yea, I think I’d like how he thought too.

    But, there’s this little thing called reality in which both he and I live. We’ve got some extra space if you’d care to join us.

  108. Jar on December 4th, 2007 8:11 am

    The Dodgers, Mariners, and Mets have been pursuing Bedard the most aggressively. More meetings with the Mets should occur today. The Mariners could make an intriguing offer built around Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow.

  109. Jar on December 4th, 2007 8:13 am

    oh, sorry, that was from MLBtraderumors.com

  110. ooter on December 4th, 2007 5:11 pm

    “The Tigers have won the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes. Detroit will get Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for six players — Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and three minor league prospects.”

    -ESPN

  111. Catherwood on December 5th, 2007 12:25 am

    That Tigers lineup is frightening. They’re going to be scoring LOTS of runs, so even if Dontrelle has an ERA hovering around 5, he’ll still win a lot of games by scores of 10-5 or so.

    And this points up where the Mariners have to go. The Tigers will win their division, the Sox and Yanks will win and get the WC, respectively, so our only way into the post season is to get by the Angels. We should be focusing on winning the West, and tooling up the team for that specific job.

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