The Most Fun Trade Ever, Part Two
Okay, so this qualifies as something better than yesterday.
The Tigers are sending their entire farm system, along with the draft rights to every player they pick for the next 1,000 years, a partridge, and a pear tree to the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.
It’s the blockbuster to end all blockbusters. The Tigers instantly thrust themselves right back into the top tier of the American League superpowers, while the Marlins acquire a ridiculous haul of talent not seen since the Herschel Walker trade.
This deal makes the Tigers better in a time where their window to win is not huge. Detroit has a significant core of their roster who won’t be helping them win for much longer or are about to head into decline, so they’re in a position where trading future help for current help makes a lot of sense. Miguel Cabrera, while not much defensively, is a hall of fame hitter heading into the prime of his career. You can’t acquire a player that good and not get better.
Did they overpay? Yea, probably. My love affair with Andrew Miller is long and well documented, and while I think Cameron Maybin is a little overhyped, he’s just terrific instead of stupendously awesome. The other four prospects account for, basically, every last bit of talent in the Tigers system besides Rick Porcello (who they aren’t allowed to trade yet). It’s a massive haul for the Marlins, and gives them some chances to realign their roster to help alleviate some of their defensive deficiencies.
From the Mariners perspective, Cabrera’s not an Angel, so we should all be thrilled about that.
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Good luck with that 2-3 year window when the Red Sox will be trotting out a rotation of Beckett / Santana / Dice-K / Bucholz / Snyder or Delcarmen over that same period. Seriously, the AL is officially a battle for second place.
This trade really doesn’t make that much sense for Detroit. Willis is a #4 at best, probably more like a #5 in the AL.
Cabrera, while a HUGE offensive upgrade, is probably -50 runs when compared to Inge defensively. He’s probably -30 or -40 compared to what the Tigers could trot out into LF next year.
I just don’t see how this makes them anything more than the third, maybe at best the second team in the AL.
Dave, if you are running the Tigers, do you play Cabrera at 1B and move Carlos Guillen to 3rd now?
Another upside for the M’s is that the Angels may take their bag ‘o prospects and turn them into Miguel Tejada instead. (or Johan, but that looks unlikely at this point and I’d rather not think about that)
So Detroit’s defense gets a little worse, their offense gets a lot better, and they replace Miller with Willis in the rotation. That’s far from a slam dunk. What kind of numbers do you project for D-Train pitching in the AL Central?
So Renteria goes to SS< Carlos goes to first, and Cabrera goes to third… but for how long? At least Detroit has the Dimitri Young experience to call on when it comes to arranging the after-game buffets.
Meanwhile, the Marlins are rolling in cheap young talent. And nobody is going to show up to watch them play, so Loria gets to pocket plenty of revenue sharing cash since he’s paying almost nothing in salaries. He’s bad for baseball, but he’s a hell of a businessman. Now just watch him swing a sweetheart stadium deal….
Man, maybe Sheehan is right: with the decline in the free agent market, the only way most teams will get better in the future is by growing a farm, and/or trading it.
Cabrera’s not an Angel, so we should all be thrilled about that.
There is that. So where do the Angels focus next? I guess they can always fall back to claiming Hunter was the “big bat” they wanted all along, but really they’ve been the bridesmaid an awful lot already and the offseason is still young.
Cabrera, while a HUGE offensive upgrade, is probably -50 runs when compared to Inge defensively.
-50 runs sounds like a stretch to me. PMR, for instance, had Inge as around 50 outs better than Cabrera. That’s still about 25 runs, but Cabrera is arguably about a 70 run improvement over Inge on offense, and Inge is something like 6 years older than Cabrera. You don’t see teams improve a position by 40 runs or more very often.
I can see how this trade makes the Tigers better now, but they did have to trade away some of their future to do it.
#5 – I just meant -50 defensively. Inge being +25, Cabrera being -20 or -25 in the field.
5 – Judging from this post, it sounds like they traded away ALL of their future for this.
To be fair, I did check my numbers. UZR had Inge at +12, Cabrera at -28, so a loss of 40 it would appear. Seems like a pretty steep price to pay to still not win a World Series, let alone a pennant.
This trade really doesn’t make that much sense for Detroit. Willis is a #4 at best, probably more like a #5 in the AL.
I think you’re underestimating Willis a bit. True, he is not an ace, but is quite likely to be a viable #2/3 starter. He was the victim of some bad luck and crappy defense last year, in addition to struggling.
Plus, Cabrera and Willis give you a combined 4 years before free agency. Boston is willing to give up almost as much value as the Tigers gave up for 1 year of arbitration-eligible Santana.
What kind of numbers do you project for D-Train pitching in the AL Central?
Well, the last couple of years, Dontrelle had about a 4.75 xFIP with Florida. So in a pitcher’s park in the AL that goes to 5.25 or so? He could have fewer than 6 K/9 and more than 4 BB/9, which would be pretty ugly. Something like Jarrod Washburn with a few more groundballs and a few more walks? He’ll get better defensive support, so his ERA might not be as bad as it was last year, and Tigers fans might feel somewhat vindicated about that as a result, but he’s not as good as many people think he is.
5 – Judging from this post, it sounds like they traded away ALL of their future for this.
Remember, this is the Tigers we are talking about. If Cabrera/Willis walk in two years, they will get two draft picks and this is the team that turns draft picks into Maybin/Miller/Porcello. They can and will bust slot for top talent.
Overall, I like this move by the Tigers.
To be fair, I did check my numbers. UZR had Inge at +12, Cabrera at -28, so a loss of 40 it would appear. Seems like a pretty steep price to pay to still not win a World Series, let alone a pennant.
40 is a fairly substantial difference from 50, and it’s good to check more than one source when it comes to defensive metrics. RZR has them differ by about 30 in-zone plays, which seems reasonably consistent with PMR’s 50 plays overall. Somewhere between 25 and 40 runs seems reasonable, but 50 runs definitely overstates the defensive difference between Inge and Cabrera.
Drayer is reporting live on KOMO that Guillen is going to 1B “to start out with”.
Despite what Drayer says, I can see the Tigers moving Cabrera to 1B and Guillen to 3B. Supposedly, Cabrera has lost a significant amount of weight, so maybe he’ll turn himself into a decent 3B. In any case, I would expect him to be at least an average 1B, defensively, and Guillen to be an average 3B, defensively.
Talking to Tigers’ fans right now you’d think that Andruw Miller lost his left arm in the off-season and they managed to pull a fast one in dealing that stiff before anyone else realizes it.
This would be an example of the kind of trade the M’s are in no position to make. I’ll be damned if Bavasi wants to make the big splash by forking over Morrow, Clement and Jones for Bedard…
Looking at Dewan’s +/-, UZR, PMR and translated THT fielding data, I think it’s reasonable to assume Inge was a +15 run defender in ‘07 while Cabrera was a -20 defender. Inge was worth -3 runs versus replacement offensively. Cabrera was worth 71 runs over replacement offensively.
You could focus on their relative defensive values but doing so would ignore that overall Cabrera looks to be roughly a 4 win upgrade over Inge.
Miller should love the NL.
What Drayer said was (in answer to a Pitman assumption that Cabrera would play 1st) that the Tigers had gone into the off-season moving Guillen to first. There was then discussion of what happens to Inge– do they move him to one of the teams looking for a 3B (Twins? Yanks?)
#16– what Drayer was hearing was that the Ms had two pitchers plus on the table for Bedard
We don’t have to play Miggy 20 times a year, thank god.
Gammons says the other three players going to the Marlins are “Eulogio De la Cruz (3.62 ERA in the minors with a blazing fastball), Dallas Trahern (13-6 between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo) and Burke Badenhop (12-6 between Lakeland and Erie)”
My guess is maybe that Willis was thrown in as part of the deal as a salary dump. Marlins GM probably knew Willis isn’t that good, but probably used his name and past credentials to milk more prospects out of the Tigers.
And its good we only will play Miguel Cabrera 6-7 times next year rather than 20. I think Arte Moreno’s back up plan is Miguel Tejada though. Should we be scared still?
No way was Willis a salary dump. He was commanding some serious interest for past 2 years from every team in baseball. Florida asked for and got a huge haul in prospects for two big time players and it just worked out that both went at same time to same trading partner.
Well I wasn’t saying he isn’t good (well, I think most people here know he is overrated), but the Marlins did the same thing when they did their salary clearing back in late 2005 when they traded Josh Beckett to the red sox they also attached Mike Lowell to get rid of his big salary. Their payoff was pretty good too. Anibel Sanchez, Hanley Rameriez, and some other prospects i can’t think of, but those 2 alone have already shown Major League skills.
#22: we should be thrilled.
#19 M’s two pitchers for Bedard
I hope that Baltimore would take Morrow, Tillman,or another pitcher, maybe Sherril and Balentine for Bedard.
#22: I guess it’ll be our little secret that Willis sucks … that he’s basically Jeff Weaver at this point.
There’s a difference between being dramatically overrated and being Weaver….
There’s a difference between being dramatically overrated and being Weaver….
2007 numbers
Weaver’s FIP: 5.03
Willis’ FIP: 5.09
Weaver’s K/BB: 2.29
Willis’ K/BB: 1.68
Weaver’s BABIP: .334
Willis’ BABIP: .329 (so, basically, they were equally unlucky)
None of these make the whole case, obviously — and it’s reasonable to think Willis’ HR/FB will come back to earth — but there’s nothing outlandish about comparing Willis to Weaver. They’re both pretty bad pitchers right now.
Do you have their comparative K/9 and BB/9 ratios handy, Teej?
Sure. As you might expect, Willis K’s more and walks more:
Weaver’s K/9: 4.91
Willis’ K/9: 6.40
Weaver’s BB/9: 2.15
Willis’ BB/9: 3.81
All numbers are from their player pages at http://www.fangraphs.com
I just don’t see how this makes them anything more than the third, maybe at best the second team in the AL.
Right, and we all know that the best team in the AL ALWAYS wins all their playoff series. Remember the World Champion 2001 Mariners?
I think the trade puts Detroit in the playoffs. After that … I like them as well as any other team likely to make it that far.
#32 – Remember the World Champion 2001 Mariners
Yes, I do. I also know playoff rotation of Beckett / Santana / Dice / Buchholz >>>>>>> (too many >s to list) Garcia / Moyer / Sele / Abbott or Pineiro or Halama.
Honestly, in a seven game series, with Beckett and/or Santana starting at least four, if not five games, how is ANYONE beating the Red Sox in 2008?
2001 World Series Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks. Diamondbacks rotation: Johnson / Schilling / Batista / Anderson / Scrub. Diamondbacks offensive leaders: Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Williams, Mark Grace.
2008 Red Sox rotation: see above. Red Sox offensive leaders: Ortiz / Manny / Youkilis / Lowell / Pedroia / Varitek.
Yea. Hmm. Yea. I just don’t know how they’ll get it done.
In 2001, the Diamondbacks won Game 7 on a bloop single off arguably the greatest, most “clutch” closer in the history of baseball. They were held in check through seven innings by Roger Clemens, maybe the best pitcher of all time. Anything can happen.
In a five- or seven-game series, you’re putting those awesome Red Sox up against a number of perhaps slightly-less-awesome teams. Any team that makes the playoffs in the AL is damn good.
Chance is huge in a playoff series. The best team wins the World Series about as often as they would if you decided it by flipping coins. No amount of talent accumulation will guarantee that the Red Sox win it all. Santana hangs one slider in Game 7 (to Cabrera, maybe?) and a homer could seal it for the Tigers if Verlander’s stuff is good that night. Manny and Papi could be worn down and/or injured. And so on.
This trade makes Detroit good enough to make the playoffs, upon which time anything can happen. They have a window to win it all, and this move makes a lot of sense. Just because the Red Sox are really good doesn’t mean other teams ought to just quit attempting to win baseball games.
#35 – Quit attempting to win baseball games is a lot different than selling the future for the 2-3 year window you just locked yourself into.
I’m not saying this doesn’t make Detroit a legit playoff contender. They most certainly are. However, I don’t think they’re a lock to make it to October.
Call me crazy, but a rotation with Verlander / Bonderman followed by Rogers / Robertson / Willis, just doesn’t strike fear into my hearts.
Best case scenario for the Tigers: Cabrera is lights out, even with the league change, Sheffield staves off the Grimm Reaper for another season, Ordonez stays legit, Renteria figures out how to hit in the AL, Guillen continues to put up solid numbers, Pudge’s legs don’t fall off, Polanco continues to defy description, Granderson learns how to hit lefties.
Likely scenario: roughly half those things happen.
88 win team in 2007. What’s it going to take to make the playoffs in ‘08? 93? 95? I don’t know, but it won’t be easy to overtake the Indians in the Central, and the Wild Card won’t come easy.
I just think giving up your best pitching prospect, best hitting prospect, and from what I gather some damn good other talent, for what I gather is 5-7 wins next season, which would make you a 93-95 win team and borderline playoff caliber, especially given the climate in the AL right now isn’t all that keen.
I guess if Willis or Cabrera, or both, become Type A free agents at least they’re getting some of the draft picks back, but this seems like a damn risky move all things considered.
Honestly, in a seven game series, with Beckett and/or Santana starting at least four, if not five games, how is ANYONE beating the Red Sox in 2008?
The Yankees have won more games than anyone this millennium (2001-on). They’ve been in the playoffs more than any team in the past seven years- every single year. They’ve won exactly ZERO championships, and they’ve made the World Series twice.
#37 – And the last time a Yankees team trotted out a 4-man playoff rotation like the Sox will be able to trot out in 2008 (assuming they get Santana, which apparently looks less than 100% right now according to ESPN), would haev been when?
My point, and I think it’s a valid one, is that in a playoff series, with a rotation like that of the ‘08 Red Sox, which is arguably one of the better ones in recent memory, save the Braves of the early-mid 90s, a team is incredibly, and I mean incredibly tough to beat.
The Yankees being more consistent in this millennium has nothing to do with my point. Being in the playoffs every year has nothing to do with my point. Them winning no championships has nothing to do with my point.
My point is that the Red Sox rotation will be other-worldly in 2008 (again, assuming Santana goes to Boston), and that in a seven game series, it’s unlikely that they’d go down. I don’t know what the mathematical odds would be, but I’d venture to guess that the ‘08 Tigers would be a roughly 75/25, or 70/30 underdog if matched up in a seven game set against the ‘08 Red Sox (again, assuming Santana goes there).
So, assuming they both make it to an ALCS matchup (which is a far safer assumption as far as Boston is concerned IMO), you’re mortgaging the future, for a 25-30% shot at making a return trip to the World Series, and it’s likely that your window of opportunity legitimately stretches two seasons wide. I just don’t see how that can be considered shrewd.
Gammons is making it sound as though Detriot picked up Willis as an inning eater–or that’s how he sees him.
I’ll just miss seeing him hit and run the bases in those huge shoes. Maybe he can come off the bench.
with a rotation like that of the ‘08 Red Sox, which is arguably one of the better ones in recent memory, save the Braves of the early-mid 90s, a team is incredibly, and I mean incredibly tough to beat.
And how many times did the Braves fail with that amazing rotation? Every year except one. The Braves made the playoffs every year, but they fell short constantly despite having the best rotation anyone had seen in a long time, maybe ever. It happens. A lot.
Your point that the Red Sox are absurdly stacked is noted, and I think we can all agree on that. But that still doesn’t mean they’re going to win the World Series.
As far as mortgaging the future, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. The Tigers know how to draft and aquire young talent. They still have Porcello, a sizable payroll and smart people behind the scenes. They’re going to be all right.
And who’s to say that three years down the road, when all this talent is ready to make a run, the Red Sox won’t be just as powerful as they are today? You plan for the future until you have a chance to win, then you go for it. That’s what the Tigers are doing. The future is right now. They can’t just keep aiming for 85 wins and hoping that someday the AL East superpowers will get worse. Any AL team capable of making the playoffs has a great shot at winning it all.
Boy…Cabrera is a big deal, but did they have to give up Miller AND Maybin? Miller will be better than Willis by what…this year? Next year? It’s not far off. They gave up a lot for only one really high quality player.
If the Mariners trade Jones and Morrow for Bedard I am officially renouncing my fanhood.
My point, and I think it’s a valid one, is that in a playoff series, with a rotation like that of the ‘08 Red Sox, which is arguably one of the better ones in recent memory, save the Braves of the early-mid 90s, a team is incredibly, and I mean incredibly tough to beat.
World championships won by Atlanta Braves from 1991-2005: one
World championships won by Florida Marlins from 1991-2005: two
Division titles won by Marlins, same time period: zero
Again: the historical record really contradicts you here. But don’t let that stop you from making the Sox into a dynasty…
Once a guy like Beckett proves he has a little bit of that playoff magic dust, some people refuse to consider that he could actually be beat in one playoff game, much less slump for an entire series, at any point in the future.
It’s like fighting with a rotweiler with an old rag between his teeth. He simply will not let go.
So… to recap… Beckett and Santana vs. Verlander and Bonderman… run 1,000 simulations and Detroit loses 25% of those playoff games. Bank on it. It’s a better winner than sub-prime mortgages.
If I can chime in on the Red Sox dynasty discussion,
A playoff rotation of Santana, Beckett and Dice-K/Schilling combined with a great bullpen and lineup would make any team playing the Red Sox an underdog in any given game. It would take a great deal of luck to beat such a team in the playoffs.
I need to learn how to use blockquotes correctly.
Why? Erik Bedard is one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, is in his prime, will still be cheap this season, and unless something amazing happens, when he leaves he becomes an A-class free agent for two free first round draft picks.
I love Adam Jones and all, but Erik Bedard… c’mon!
If we can get Bedard and keep Jones Im ok with it. Baker says the orioles are high on Wladimir Balentien, and Sherril, or Green. Id pull the trigger on that deal.
Dave:
In your estimation, when considering league effects etc (but ignoring the disparity in their salaries), do you consider Willis a tangible upgrade on the field for the Tigers in ‘08 over what Miller would’ve likely done for them? If so, what do you think the magnitude of the difference would be?
Red Sox with Santana in ‘08 > ANY of the Braves teams in the 90s. The Red Sox actually have a bullpen, and a legit lineup, as opposed to Mark Wohlers, Trot Nixon, and Fred McGriff.
Seriously, they were stacked this year. With Santana, I don’t think stacked begins to describe the Red Sox.
I mean, yea, the All-Star at every position in the field thing has really worked well for the Yankees, so it’s got to work for Detroit.
Come on, it’s about the pitching, and we both know it.
It just seems silly to mortgage the future so heavily, especially with guys like Miller and Maybin who look so promising, for a fleeting chance to win now, against arguably the best on-paper baseball team of my lifetime (again, assuming Santana ends up in Boston).
I’ll stop now, since you obviously don’t agree, but let’s discuss again 10-and-a-half months from now, and then again a year after that.
I admit my initial reaction on seeing the trade was an open-mouthed, “my god the marlins fleeced them”, and I expected Dave to rip the trade.
#52 – me too I’m a little confused, as Dave seems to like this trade for Detroit, even though they have literally given up the farm. Dontrell is going to get lit up in the American league, and I just think Detroit gave up too much.
Honestly, this is great in several ways:
1. Angels don’t get Cabrera (thrill me!)
2. Dontrelle Willis is no longer an option for the M’s to acquire (yes, I was worried he would be brought in at the cost of Morrow – another reliever for a starter deal)
3. Detriot made themselves much better offensively, and much worse defensively. But, still much better overall.
4. The Angels haven’t made a big, scary movve.
5. One less rabbit for Billy Beane to pull out of his hat.
Oh, and for all the people scared of how good the Red Sox might be….. wait until they actually acquire Santana. And if you are so sure they are that unbeatable, cash in your 401K and place your bet on them in Vegas today. The odds you’ll get will be phenominal and you can go buy an island or whatever.
#51 If its all about pitching, quit talking about the Braves hitters and don’t gloss over their pitchers. From 1991 – 1998, a Brave deservedly won the Cy Young. The only two years that were not a Brave? 1992 Maddux as a Cub and 1997 Pedro Martinez. No team had the pitching had like the Braves. 8 years of pitching domination. It isn’t like any of their pitchers had down years, either.
Keep in mind that for the Tigers, money appears to me not much of an issue. The fact that Cabrera is expensive and Maybin/Miller are cheap isn’t a big deal to them.
Cabrera is only, what, 24? At least when you mortgage the future to get him, you receive a pretty darned good future in return.
I just wonder if the Tigers didn’t just indirectly help the Twins get a bigger package back for Santana. With the hard-on everyone has for the Tigers lineup (apparently the latest “new ‘27 Yankees”) the Twins suddenly have yet another reason to get nothing less than the maximum value for him.
Would the M’s be interested in Shawn Green? I know he is now a shell of his former self, but he would be an affordable 1 year contract and useful left handed stick in the lineup. On the plus side he had a nice Sept.
#51: What are you going to do with Maybin and Miller? Wait three years and try then? Wait five years and pray that somehow the Red Sox front office has stopped building awesome teams? In a few years, most of Detroit’s best hitters will be in serious decline, if not out of baseball. It’s just ludicrous to think that Detroit will be in a better position to win it all in a few years than they are right now.
You take the Sox, I’ll take the field. It’s playoff baseball. The best team seldom wins.
Red Sox with Santana in ‘08 > ANY of the Braves teams in the 90s. The Red Sox actually have a bullpen, and a legit lineup, as opposed to Mark Wohlers, Trot Nixon, and Fred McGriff.
Hmm, let’s see. The 1996/1997 Braves were 4th and 3rd in NL runs scored. The 2006-2007 Red Sox were 6th and 3rd.
Nope, still not ready to turn them into a dynasty. Sorry. You might also note that Manny and Varitek will be closer to 40 than 30 when Opening Day comes around, and a lot of big offensive contributors are on the wrong side of 30.
My working theory is the Red Sox will be a legitimately good team next year, and even better with Santana… but the offense might struggle some, as it’s a poster child for Too Many Old Guys.
40: My initial reaction as well was that the Tigers were “mortgaging their future” with this move — and granted, they did give away a boatload of talent to get Cabrera and the D-Train. However, I agree that their front office has a pretty good eye for scouting and drafting young talent — and are certainly a lot more savvy now then they were back in 2000 when they made that disastrous deal for about 100 games worth of Juan Gonzalez’ whining during his contract year. I think they’ll probably be alright as well.
Besides, kudos to Dave Dombrowski are in order for keeping Miggy AWAY from the Angels!