Winter Meetings, Day Two

Dave · December 4, 2007 at 8:31 am · Filed Under Mariners 

A fairly boring day one of the meetings. Let’s hope today provides a little more excitement. Here’s what we know after 24 hours.

1. With the M’s out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes, they’re now pursuing Erik Bedard – he’s not quite as good as Johan, but he’s still a terrific pitcher, plus he’s under club control through 2009. However, just as with Santana, the price is exhorbitant, and I’m still of the opinion that the Mariners aren’t one pitcher away from being a legit contender.

2. The Edwin Jackson rumors didn’t last long, as it appears the M’s were only offering scraps to Tampa, who are too smart to give up a quality young arm for pieces of questionable value like Ben Broussard or Rob Johnson. If the M’s want to get a guy like Jackson, they’re going to have to part with a talented player in return – Wladimir Balentien actually makes a lot of sense for both clubs, especially now that the Rays have traded Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes in the last week.

3. Apparently, Hiroki Kuroda’s first name isn’t Hideki. Whoops. M’s still seem like the frontrunners for his services.

4. Also, Jose Guillen signed with the Royals for 3 years and $36 million. Because the M’s declined to offer arbitration, they don’t get any draft pick compensation. Bavasi gave the typical crap answer about the team not wanting the exposure of him potentially accepting arbitration and wrecking their budget with a $12-$15 million award down the line. However, that’s a load of B.S.

The actual exposure the team had was 1/6th of whatever they projected his potential arbitration award to be, thanks to a clause in the CBA that allows teams to release players prior to March 15th and only be liable for 16% of the salary they were given in arbitration. So, if the M’s thought Guillen would accept abritration and they really didn’t want him back, they could simply release him by paying him something around $2 million to just go away. That’s their real exposure.

And really, what were the odds of Guillen accepting arbitration? 10%? 20%? No way it was higher than that. A 20% risk of a $2 million exposure is about $400,000 in risk. The team punted a supplemental first round pick because $400,000 scared them away. What a bunch of pansies.


178 Responses to “Winter Meetings, Day Two”

  1. thr33niL on December 4th, 2007 5:38 pm

    Are you kidding? Thames IS Richie Sexson and makes Raul Ibanez look good defensively.

  2. MyOhMy on December 4th, 2007 5:57 pm

    149 – I think they just might try that. It probably depends on him actually losing the weight and not allegedly losing the weight. I surely don’t see Cabrera in Left as stated in #146. The Tigers are stacked in the OF with Ordonez, Sheffield, Granderson, and didn’t they sign or trade for Jacque Jones …

  3. thefin190 on December 4th, 2007 5:57 pm

    Wow what a trade, did not see that one coming. Marlins can never seem to ever afford to keep their vets, but when they are traded the Marlins’ GM can always seem to get good players out of the deals. I don’t know if people know this, but Willis was almost traded for a package which included Verlander before 2006. Imagine Verlander on the Marlins now, odd right?

    Also, this is good news because this pretty much ends the possibility of Jones being traded for Willis.

  4. Ron Stevens on December 4th, 2007 6:14 pm

    Everyone should realise Seattle is more than one player away from being a legitimate contender;but if you can improve your team,why not optimize that opportunity;being better is an improvement over stagnation.

  5. Mo Vaughn Is My Hero on December 4th, 2007 6:25 pm

    Come on Twins, you’re holding everything up. Just decide on Santana already.

  6. pensive on December 4th, 2007 6:28 pm

    At this point in time BB should look at Rule 5 players and players non-tendered.

    Kuroda seems to be playing typical rumor strategy unlike report over a week ago he would have answer in 4 Days. On Thanksgiving Day,

    Normally I would believe it is only money ,spend what it takes. Now have been daily reading USSM; therefore feel differently now.

    Please don’t trade our shiny top prospects. Our sloth footed, slow bat gritty vets surely will be at home with Lou or Dusty Baker.

  7. niterunner on December 4th, 2007 6:30 pm

    113 (HighCheese) The point is that we had an opportunity which we did not take. Guillen seemed to be adamant about a multiyear contract and wound up signing a multiyear deal.

  8. msb on December 4th, 2007 6:37 pm

    FWIW, Cabrera supposedly has already taken 15 lbs off with his new “I’m going to be traded” exercise regime…

    #147– well, he reads USSM, he’s talked to Dave for several months… I always hope.

  9. kennyb on December 4th, 2007 6:44 pm

    I can’t stop the cycle of laughing then getting frustrated then laughing again as I read this thread. First of all, how do we get to 400k as the cost of cutting Guillen if he accepts arbitration? If we assume that the “penalty” for cutting him after arbitration is 2mil, and the chances of this happening are 20%, the best case loss is 2mil. If I bid on something on ebay for $100 and figure I have a 20% chance of winning it, it still costs me $100 if I do win it.
    In addition, lets say the M’s offered and Guillen accepted arbitratin. Then they cut him and have to pay 2mil, this sight would go ballistic! I can hear it now -“Can you believe the M’s just threw away 2mil? Why didn’t they cut him before offering arbitration?”
    Or maybe we could claim we only owe a 400k penalty. We have the math on this thread to prove that.

  10. lailaihei on December 4th, 2007 6:47 pm

    Florida wins that deal with the Tigers. Tigers are going to decline decline decline…

  11. joser on December 4th, 2007 6:50 pm

    Drayer says she is hearing Cliff Floyd’s name mentioned for the much-coveted role of Mariner Left-Handed Sock

    You know, I had this exact suggestion, and I went on about it to anybody who would listen…in the 2002-2003 offseason. The intervening five years have not been kind to the athlete or to the idea.

  12. smb on December 4th, 2007 6:56 pm


    You’re right…I bet Bavasi climbs into his office through the HVAC ducting.

  13. msb on December 4th, 2007 6:58 pm

    speaking of Shannon, KOMO has their hot stove show tonight at 7, with Ms Drayer reporting in from Nashville

  14. NBarnes on December 4th, 2007 6:59 pm

    The Marlins have a retarded amount of cost-controlled talent.

  15. joser on December 4th, 2007 6:59 pm

    The ongoing Bill Bavasi saga reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where George tries to get fired, and fails miserably at it…but instead of 22mins, this episode has lasted for four years, and may continue indefinitely. He can’t possibly be this incompetent by accident.

    My theory: he’s still secretly employed by the Angels. Either that, or Bavasi Sports Partners is some evil cabal that is scheming, opus dei-link, to take control of all of MLB. Albino monk, bald giant, what’s the difference?

  16. joser on December 4th, 2007 7:31 pm

    Marlins can never seem to ever afford to keep their vets, but when they are traded the Marlins’ GM can always seem to get good players out of the deals.

    The Marlins don’t want to keep their vets (remember, it was Marlins president David Samson who said that Ichiro’s contract was “the end of the world as we know it”). The Marlins have won the world series twice, and got the rest of MLB to pay them to play ball in between (Marlins 2006 payroll: $14.9M; Marlins 2006 revenue sharing payout: $31M; Marlins 2006 profit: $43M, best in MLB that year). It’s a bitch for their fans (however many are left in what should be a baseball hotbed, who understandably reward this contempt with indifference) but it’s a fine business strategy (especially when you can scream poverty to try to crowbar a new stadium out of the city/county/state). Meanwhile, Loria bought the Marlins in 2002 for $158M. Forbes magazine in April 2007 valued the club at $244M. Combined with profits he’s pocketed over that span, that’s a pretty decent ROI.

  17. Tom on December 4th, 2007 7:38 pm

    Thank god Miguel Cabrera won’t be in our division, but I would’ve rather had him head to the NL.

  18. naviomelo on December 4th, 2007 8:27 pm

    Drayer’s reporting that the M’s are interested in Geoff Jenkins right now on KOMO.

  19. naviomelo on December 4th, 2007 8:30 pm

    Drayer just said that the reports about a four-year offer to Hiroki Kuroda were false, and that Kuroda is looking for a four-year deal.

  20. msb on December 4th, 2007 8:37 pm

    She and others today; also re: Kuroda, she understands one of his agents has been fielding the offers, and will take them back to Japan, so nothing may happen until next week.

    re: Jenkins, she also mentioned Cliff Floyd as a name that has come up with the Ms through the years.

    She said that before going on-air she took a call from a national writer who was saying that Bedard is down to the Mets, the Jays & the Mariners, and that the M’s supposedly have 2 pitchers on the table.

  21. thr33niL on December 4th, 2007 9:05 pm

    If they are hot on Jenkins and Floyd, that must mean Jones must have a real possibility of being dealt.


  22. msb on December 4th, 2007 9:05 pm

    more from KOMO. Mac cancelled his trip to Venezuela to hang around the winter meetings– whatever that might mean…

    Trey Hillman has been selling Kuroda as a #2 or 3 pitcher to anyone who asks about him; Mac said that when talking to Kuroda in Japan, Hiroki asked more questions relating to his family in the States than baseball-related questions…

    Mac says he wants more stealing from AJ & Betancourt, and they will be working on that this spring. Jose Lopez has so much talent, excellent job in the field, got some pop, he needs to stop giving away at-bats, so they’ll be working on that “and let him know we’re not pickin’ on him, just want him to be the best he can be”

  23. msb on December 4th, 2007 9:06 pm

    If they are hot on Jenkins and Floyd, that must mean Jones must have a real possibility of being dealt.


  24. thr33niL on December 4th, 2007 9:10 pm

    Losing Jones would punch a whole in RF. Since Bavasi has already declared Raul our LFer.

  25. Dobbs on December 4th, 2007 10:13 pm

    I swear this isn’t the first time they’ve seemingly purposely avoided being awarded a first round pick. Did we offer Mike Cameron arbitration?

  26. JH on December 4th, 2007 11:20 pm

    61: Joser says: “You wish. This team has always been careful to stay on Selig’s good side, and there’s zero indication that has changed.”

    Bavasi/Fontaine set a 3rd-round bonus record by signing Tui for $2.1 million in 2004. They will break slot, just not all the time.

  27. scott19 on December 5th, 2007 1:51 am

    160: Agreed on that point…Miller AND Maybin to the ‘Fish’?

    Wow…must be some juicy pics they’re blackmailing Dombrowski with!

  28. msb on December 5th, 2007 9:13 am

    #174– he has? really?

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