Win Now? Do This.
As I mentioned in this morning’s post, the Mariners are in win now mode – coming off an 88 win season and with jobs still on the line, building for 2009 is not an option. However, as the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians continue to set the bar for just what a legitimate contender looks like, the M’s have some serious ground to cover if they’re going to actually try to win it all next year. Johan Santana wouldn’t have been enough. Erik Bedard won’t be enough. This team needs to make some significant improvements at multiple positions if they’re actually going to make a run for the pennant. (Note – I don’t support this philosophy, but realize that the organization won’t do what I want them to, so at least we can try to help them do the best while pursuing a suboptimal roster building approach).
So, here’s a totally made up series of moves (please don’t call these rumors or email beat writers asking how likely these moves are – they’re fictional creations from Dave Land) that could potentially help the Mariners accomplish their goal of having to be taken at least semi-seriously in the A.L. next year.
1. Trade Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez to Baltimore for Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts.
The M’s aren’t going to get Bedard without surrendering Adam Jones, but it doesn’t make any sense to just make that move and not fix the rest of the roster. By going from Lopez to Roberts, the team takes a significant step forward at second base; Roberts is one of those ridiculously underappreciated players in the game, because his contributions (lots of doubles, walks, and good defense) are generally undervalued among talent evaluators. Like Bedard, Roberts is under contract through 2009 at a below market salary, and is just 29 years old. While the team would be trading a lot of future value, they’d be getting two guys in their primes, both under club control for two more years.
If you’re going to trade Adam Jones, this is the kind of package you have to get back.
2. Sign Geoff Jenkins to a multiyear deal.
If Jones is traded, this is almost non-negotiable; the team would have to replace him with a quality defensive outfielder or we’ll just see a repeat of last year’s debacle in the outfield.
3. Sign Bartolo Colon to a one year deal.
We’ve talked about this – it’s a good idea, and if he goes into the season as your #5 starter behind Bedard, Felix, Batista, and Washburn, the downside if he gets hurt is limited (Rowland-Smith and Baek are still around), and the upside is still there for him to move into the upper half of the rotation, removing the team’s need to potentially throw Washburn to the wolves in a playoff series.
Ideally, they’d go beyond even these moves, dealing either Sexson or Vidro and replacing Ibanez with a real outfielder as well, but that might be asking for too much. If they’re going to get serious in a deal for Bedard, however, this is the path they need to commit to going down. Bedard and Kuroda is just not enough to make them real contenders. This team needs more than that.
Adding Roberts and Jenkins to the offense would add two more bats that can swing from the left side and are a good fit for Safeco Field, while also hopefully keeping the defense at least passable, rather than the disaster it was last year.
I’d still rather the team not trade Jones in some far fetched attempt to grasp at glory, but if they’re going to do so, at least we can hope that they’ll do something like this. Don’t settle for just adding a pitcher or two – either get serious, make the team good, or hold your cards.
Word is, Cleveland is backpedaling on the Cliff Lee for Jason Bay deal. Makes me wonder if Bavasi gave Shapiro a call, although I’m sure a lot of teams are interested in Cliff Lee. Still just two years removed from a near-Cy Young caliber season and, better yet, he’s controllable through 2010 on the cheap:
2008:$3.75M
2009:$5.75M
2010:$8M club option ($1M buyout)
Well, I’d say that the current crew shares Gillick’s philosophy on player development and team construction without having a lick of Gillick’s eye for talent evaluation.
Lee isn’t really good right now; his FIP and xFIP were at 5.59 and 5.57, respectively. And his numbers have trended down the last two years – 2005 kind of sticks out like a sore thumb.
Cliff Lee didn’t start a game after last July. He pitched five innings in four appearances in September and finished the year with a 6+ ERA. He looks more like a candidate for a salary swap for a Vidro or Sexson than someone you trade a prospect for.
espn is reporting a possible suspension (10-15 days) for new Royal Jose Guillen…
re: #103, see also #87
Lee kicked off his 2007 campaign with a strained oblique which may explain some things, but I agree – by no means is he sexy. Just suggesting that, perhaps, the Mariners stuck their big hairy toe in the Cliff Lee pool. I know we all want Bedard, but Seattle doesn’t have what Baltimore is allegedly looking for. Once Johan and possibly Haren are off the market, the competition for Bedard will be fierce.
I bet the M’s knew about a possible suspension.
Anyone think that Baltimore, Oakland and Minnesota are waiting for one of the others to make a move? I’d think that whoever is the last man standing would have some good leverage. Of course, neither Bedard or Haren are as sexy a pick as Santana. If anyone were to ask me (and, thank god, they won’t) I’d like Haren, please.
So, 10-15 days suspension is worth punting $500K and a sandwich draft choice….
Guillen has his own thread now, but thanks for hijacking.
how about a wacky three-way Santana rumor instead?
I need to start planning for next year. I can put up a site that autogenerates trade rumors, Eliza-style.
Or, maybe I’ll put up a private Wiki so that invited contributers can write up their own rumors and rewrite others’, and then then the top-voted ones graduate to the public side of the site.
I’d think that whoever is the last man standing would have some good leverage.
Ever play musical chairs? You don’t want to be the last man standing, that means the really good prospects have already been dealt, too. Unless you think the supply is somehow unlimited (which admittedly, the prospect hype machine sometimes leads people to believe).
sorry DMZ…didn’t see it…
Ever play musical chairs? You don’t want to be the last man standing, that means the really good prospects have already been dealt, too
I totally see your point. Perhaps they don’t want to move to soon or to late.
This is all funny. We’re at that twitchy point where we want the Mariners to do SOMETHING, no matter how good or bad, because we’re all just so poised to pounce. I get the feeling that we’d be happy if we dealt Ichiro for Noah Lowry just so we’d have something to talk about.
117- I agree. Except I would take 1 AAA fodder for a AA role player right now over getting rid of Ichiro.
Tidbit for the transaction-starved: Cincinnati signs Tacoma innings-muncher Justin Lehr to a minor-league deal. Discuss.
Ken Rosenthal on foxsports.com reporting the M’s are apparently back in the Johan sweepstakes.
120 – In other news, Pearl Harbor was bombed…
Dudes, you may get what you wished for if you’re not careful…
#79
“Which brings up the question…isn’t there value in keeping the other top teams from having Santana? How should that figure into the M’s calculations? If the Angels get him the M’s are just that much further behind them for the AL West pennant.”
I think this should not factor into the decision making process too much. The goal should be to make the best team possible maximizing the resources of the organization. Not to grab players just to deny them to other teams.
my favorite rotoworld line yet:
“We’re not sure what’s happened more this week: ESPN writers contradicting each other or contradicting themselves.”
Per the LA Dodgers website, they have signed Andruw Jones.
2 years, 36 million.
Now Juan Pierre is the most over paid LF in baseball…
heres a deal we need to get done, considering the dodgers have serious wood for veterans and Jeff Kent cant stand kemp… Ibanez and a mid level prospect (one that we secretly know isnt that good) for Matt Kemp.
Seattle needs a Kemp to return to the city, preferably one that isnt a drunkard with kids all over the continental US
Jeff Kemp was a drunkard? That would explain those interceptions, I guess…
Ken Rosenthal on foxsports.com reporting the M’s are apparently back in the Johan sweepstakes
120 – In other news, Pearl Harbor was bombed…
Right, and Peral Harbor didn’t work out so good for mariners on either side, Japanese or American. Lots of ships sunk over the next four years. Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself and this time, trans-pacific negotiations resolve the China quesiton and oil embargo. Er, I mean, the Kuroda issue.
126 – You have to realize that would never happen because Mariners have serious wood for veterans too.
If we get Roberts then the best use for him would be the no. 2 slot. Additionally, according to seattlemariners.com the Orioles are looking for Sherrill in the deal.
Dave, how about adding Sherrill, Tillman and Vidro to the deal? We’d have to take back Huff.
[no politics, please]
[no politics, please]
[no politics, please]
Just saw Andruw Jones signed with the Dodgers. Seems an odd deal though. I thought he’d do a one year to have a better walk year or just go for 5-7 years. Interesting. Dave or Derek, you guys got a take on this?
I wonder if the M’s could somehow pull Bedard and Roberts without giving up Jones… something like:
C Jeff Clement, RHP Brandon Morrow, OF Wlad Balentien, LHP George Sherrill, 2B Jose Lopez, RHP Kameron Mickolio, and 3B Matt Tuiasosopo
Wouldn’t you think that some people out there would value Clement higher than Adam Jones based on his position premium and his left-handedness?
Upon further review, although that would be a nice package for the Orioles if they were looking for a big time catching prospect, they already have a young stud in Matt Wieters. Too bad.
“Which brings up the question…isn’t there value in keeping the other top teams from having Santana? How should that figure into the M’s calculations? If the Angels get him the M’s are just that much further behind them for the AL West pennant.â€
A lot of that would depend on who the Angels give up and how that impacts their chances of winning next year. If they are giving up players that can help them win at the major league level this year, it might actually help the M’s compete with them.
Also, you have to consider the long-term impact as well, if the Angels are giving up prospects in the deal. If you consider yourself a long-term fan of the Mariners, then perhaps you would think it a good thing if the Angels improved their chances of winning this year at the expense of winning in future seasons.
Bill James’ projections disagree with your statement that Ellsbury is vastly overrated. And yes it’s true clubs appear to be only offering one elite prospect in their proposals but one could argue nothing is getting done. I disagree with bringing in a platoon outfielder in Jenkins. Unless you want to see him hit .215 vs. LHP again with a hundred extra ABs from the left side.
With almost 30m sunk into Sexson and Beltre the first question is are the Ms willing to fork out any more just for a shot at winning the West?
Seeing that the Ms are considering Colon, they must be expecting him to sign at less than Batista’s 6m. Well if Gagne got 10m, chances are that no matter how many buffet tables there are in Seattle, Colon will want more than Washburn’s 10m.
Isn’t it time for the Ms to have a fire sale and get a new GM? Bring the payroll in line with Florida’s 15m a year and realize that they should write off Sexson?
Why do people think the Os are willing to trade Bedard? Its up to the owner who vetoes just about everything and chances are he’ll go to the NL before going to the AL.
As to the Angels giving up players to other teams. This is a myth. They might say give up Kotchman if they could land Morneau. Or they might give up Moseley and a prospect for a player like Josh Fields.
Those kind of deals will happen. Other than that I would not expect much.
“Bill James’ projections disagree with your statement that Ellsbury is vastly overrated.”
Ummmm, perhaps Bill James’ is overrating him too in that case? There’s hardly proof in projecting, but it’s all opinion in any case.
“Unless you want to see him hit .215 vs. LHP again with a hundred extra ABs from the left side.”
Perfect, that’s 100 ABs for Durham who historically has hit better from the right side of the plate assuming they pull off Dave’s suggested deal of Sexson for Durham.
Perfect, that’s 100 ABs for Durham who historically has hit better from the right side of the plate assuming they pull off Dave’s suggested deal of Sexson for Durham.
My point was that Jenkins had 65 ABs vs. LHP last year and hit .215 (.697 OPS). You have to platoon Jenkins unless you want to give him a minimum of 165 ABs vs. LHP. Why is Durham getting those ABs in the OF? Durham is a second baseman or a DH.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Phillies and Padres are now the favorites to sign Jenkins.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7564680