Four years and forty-eight million
DMZ · December 20, 2007 at 2:27 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeyup.
(this from Rosenthal, who nailed the negotiation rumors, but still officially unannounced)
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Oh well, it’s only money. And it’s not even my money. (Nor will it be: I went to a century-low one game last year — to see Santana pitch — and I doubt I’ll exceed that in ‘08).
Wow.
Why not go for an even 50?
Super, just super.
some are still reporting 4/44. who knows.
press conference at 4
Miracle Mel is thrilled to have Carlos.
[don't bring that in here]
No silver lining….except by spending this much money on one mediocre guy should prevent
Bavasi from doing more harm with other deals.
Is there any evidence that there were other bidders or were the M’s bidding against themselves?
The A’s blogs have rumors that Blanton could/should/might be traded to the M’s….I think I would rather have Blanton then Silva @ $12 million a year for four years.
I wonder if Bavasi even tries to negotiate with free agents. Or do their agents come to him, throw out some absurd number, with the idea in mind they’ll negotiate to a middle-ground, and then, BAM, he agrees to their exorbitant dollar amount without negotiating.
It sounds as though that Seattle was the only team going 4 years, so in the end, they were probably negotiating with themselves, and still managed to give him 4 years $48 million. Just think what they’d have paid him with competition…I guess we should be thankful he wasn’t given Zito type dollars.
I heard on the radio this morning (yeah, I know, consider the source) that no other team offered Silva more than a three year deal. I wonder is this is another case of the M’s bidding against themselves.
“Stottlemyre added that he’d made a list after the Mariners hired him of which free-agent pitchers he’d like to add. “To be honest with you, he was at the top of my list.”"
So it wasn’t all Bavasi’s fault, thanks for taking some of the blame Mel!
Its somewhat enjoyable to see our Pitching Coach basically say exactly the opposite of what Dave posted a couple of days ago about being perfect for Safeco Field. If Silva is perfect for The Safe is Mel basically saying that “any” pitcher is perfect for Safeco Field since it is after all a decent pitchers park?
I thought Bavasi didn’t do four-year contracts or am I thinking of arbitration eligible players? Four years for a pitcher not in his early 20s is a little bit of a risk.
[snipped]
You know, I used to read that guys site until he got my hopes up for the 100th time and his predictions failed to come through.
I’m pretty skeptical that this guy just developed a third pitch out of nowhere. That seems unlikely.
I hope we sign Clemens(1 year 30 million sounds about right for Bravsi) so I can no longer root for this sorry excuse for an organization.
Not to mention this quote now looks scarier: “The Phillies, after signing outfielder Geoff Jenkins and right-hander Chad Durbin on Thursday, no longer are pursuing Lohse, sources say.”
Hopefully, we don’t have enough remaining $$$ to follow up with a Lohse signing. *starts praying*
This is still probably better than the extension Detroit just gave Dontrelle, but I don’t see how a guy with Silva’s skills is worth $12 million/season.
Maybe Bavasi’s strategy is to leave the team in such condition that he looks good compared to whoever they get after him.
At least with a 30 million for 1 year deal for Clemens we won’t be stuck with a Silva for the FUTURE (not to mention the sheer $$$ in any such Clemens deal would help prevent an amalgamation of crappy signings short term), thus freeing us up to nab a TOR pitcher WITHOUT giving up the farm for a Bedard. It’s amazing that the FO doesn’t realize that if they decided to stop overpaying mediocre stopgaps they might have a chance at competitively overpaying for elite talent instead.
I much prefer this site’s mix of snarkiness and arrogance to his site’s….
4/$48M….*sigh*…..
After reading the link # 6 offered–BTW it doesn’t contain the analyzing that # 13 seems to imply; merely reporting–I’m more than a little hopeful about Silva.
What bothers me, though, is the apparent Mariner attitude that improving their pitching rotation will improve the team.
Inasmuch as those pitchers will have essentially the same players providing defense, and essentially the same players providing offense, I don’t think so.
Baker blogs about the cost of Silva; FWIW, a Twins reporter on mlb.com was opining that the Twins wanted to keep Silva, but couldn’t pay what the current market would bring; she thinks that they are likely to go the veterans/NRI route for additional pitching.
Adding insult to injury, Seattle Times reports that his k/9ip rate was under 4! I knew he wasn’t a strikeout pitcher, but that is just atrocious.
This is like watching a train wreck in slo mo. Reading KLaw’s take on the trade is just plain depressing – especially the lines,
“… if Adam Jones is still with the Mariners on Opening Day.”
and
“If the Mariners are going for broke in 2008, there has to be a second move coming.”
Correct me if I’m wrong but…
Silva>>>>>>HoRam or Weaver
Money? Just numbers. Our rotation just got better.
I don’t understand the argument that it’s okay to overspend. Whether or not you think they should, the M’s have a set budget, and needs. If they spent all their money on a 10-year contract for Silva, and that meant they wouldn’t be able to sign another player, retain Felix, and would go for low-cost signability guys in the draft for the duration, thus ensuring the franchise’s damnation for the next decade, would that really be “just numbers”?
How the team allocates their money determines the success of the team. They’re not doing a good job of it.
DMZ, #25:
Do the M’s have a “set budget?” If so, what is it? They seem to be taking their payroll higher and higher every year.
We used to complain that ownership wouldn’t spend money to win.
My point is they know how much money they have, I don’t. We fans don’t have information to play amateur GM. All I know is they just signed a decent pitcher and upgraded the rotation. I like it.
The dismissal of the money angle strikes me as a misunderstanding of opportunity costs.
Do the M’s have a “set budget?†If so, what is it? They seem to be taking their payroll higher and higher every year.
They usually don’t specify precisely what their budget is, but their public statements consistently indicate that they have one. That budget numbers would change from year to year shouldn’t be a surprise.
[this is not a board]
Do the Yankees and Red Sox “overspend?” Do their fans mind?
Anything the FO does to make the club better is a good thing.
We can assume the M’s have a finite budget. Given their statements, we can take a pretty good guess at it. We can certainly set some reasonable bounds.
Knowing those bounds, it’s reasonable to assume that signing a player reduces the total amount of money available for other signings, and in this case, represents a substantial commitment of that budget for years to come, and will prevent them – if nothing else – from making signings that would return more for their dollar.
I don’t see where that goes wrong.
hey! I just got “HOLIDAY GREETINGS FROM THE DESK OF CHUCK ARMSTRONG”! He uses lots of exclamation points!
Anything the FO does to make the club better is a good thing.
The club is not better. Haven’t we covered this?
However, it would be better if they could do those better things in a cheaper way.
A couple moves like this prevents the club from making MUCH better things.
Do you think the Orioles fans minded when their team squandered their money, tying the franchise to an immense weight and throwing it into the sea?
Do you think the Rockies fans minded when their team signed Neagle/Hampton and crippled payroll?
This could go on and on.
If the Ms have crippled themselves heading into the future I will complain when that becomes apparent. I don’t believe I have access to enough information to be certain that this is a bad financial move. I know it is a good baseball move.
I am just a semi-knowledgeable fan. I have no aspirations to be a GM.
A move doesn’t have to be crippling for it to hurt the team.
35 – Yes I do think those fans did mind. Do I win a prize?
I today have resigned myself to sitting back and watching the fireworks. I will give Bavasi credit and say that at least he will go down swinging. He may or may not leave this franchise handcuffed and crippled, but he seems willing to try.
I… whatever. If you want to stick your head in the sand because it doesn’t look like a disaster to you now, that’s fine.
But the success of teams is determined in great part by their ability to make the most of the resources they have, and this is at the very least not an optimal use of those limited resources.
I don’t believe I have access to enough information to be certain that this is a bad financial move. I know it is a good baseball move.
What information leads you to believe that this is a good baseball move then?
#40
Silva>>>>>>HoRam or Weaver
To quote myself from another post:
The Silva signing is money poorly spent. If you are a fan of any team other than the Yankees or Red Sox, the efficiency of how that team spends its money should be of significant concern to you, because payroll limitations WILL be used as a reason that future moves cannot be made to improve the team.
Also, if you could provide something as evidence for your “good baseball move” assertion other than a lot of greater than signs, we might be inclined to take you more seriously.
I am sure we could find many, many other pitchers that are “>>>>HoRam or Weaver” and not require a large percentage of the payroll.
Sometimes, I thought I was a better pitcher than those two, so that is not saying much if that is your logic.
This article announcing the deal suggests Baltimore is interested in Clement, Morrow and Sherril as well as Jones. If the O’s would take Clement + Sherrill + Cash / Non-prospects / Moon Pies I would do that deal. Otherwise I think the potential for the team to lose out if Bedard walks after 2009 or gets hurt is too great.
He may or may not leave this franchise handcuffed and crippled, but he seems willing to try.
Am I the only one who LOLed at this? I realize you are trying to say the opposite, but I think this statement is pretty true as well.
AuburnM Says:
#40
Silva>>>>>>HoRam or Weaver
Hmmph. Pointless comparison.
How many pitchers in AAA are better than HoRam or Weaver? Wanna guess?
Vidro was better than Krazy Karl, but that didn’t make Vidro a good DH.
Using your logic, if you had a car that was ready for the scrap yard, and you went out and bought a 5 year old Chevy Cavalier for $80,000, you’d congratulate yourself for improving your transportation mechanism.
I’m not sure a Bedard deal that didn’t involve Jones (or Triunfel or Tillman) would get done, but I’d be okay with it if it happened.
my, Carlos is a sturdy chap.
Good Bye GS52!!!!
Now I have REAL reason to hate this signing…
//I will never ever type “CS52″ (again)!
I think we can all agree that Silva is too expensive, and not the most efficient use of our resources. Let me get that out of the way first.
The small comfort that some of I take (not DMZ, but a few of us) is that, compared to lots of teams, we can afford to make this mistake without crippling our team. Surely, we (the Mariners) have a budget, but I am confident that there is some money left, and there are only one or two moves that I think are within the realm of possibility: another starter, a corner outfielder, and/or an option at 1B. Every other position is filled by someone adequately qualified. I don’t think it’s likely we’ll get the 1B, and the other pitcher, if he comes, will be cheaper Silva, who was basically the most expensive still available. So, I would guess we have at least $6 mil, but probably more, to find a corner outfielder.
Next year, Sexson, Washburn, and Vidro come off the payroll, yes? So come 2009, again, we should have reasonable money to spend.
Obviously none of this is ideal, but in the grand scheme of the Mariners’ future, I don’t see this as that bad of a result. Yes, we got an expensive FA, but at least we didn’t get Kip Wells.
The M’s continue to pile bad decisions on top of bad decisions, which will no doubt lead to…more bad decisions. I really fear their next move, so much so that standing pat from this point forward actually sounds good.
You have to hand it to the guy. Bavasi continues to explore new and expensive ways to save his job with moves that should actually get him fired. I don’t know how he does it.
Virdo got a 2009 vesting option as part of his trade deal. So look forward to that.
Washburn’s signed through 2009.
You could look this stuff up before you comment. It’s not hard.
DMZ,
My apologies. My understanding of Vidro was that he wouldn’t have the option if he didn’t get enough AB’s, and I was optimistic that he wouldn’t.
I had a conversation about Washburn with someone just today, and I trusted their knowledge on the end of his contract.
I’ll do better next time.
And why, by the beard of Zeus, did the Mariners keep Horacio if they knew they were going to sign even ONE free agent starting pitcher? Surely a mix of Baek, Rowland-Smith and the guy who rakes around 2nd base would do less damage in the 5-spot. Is there any sane reason why they chose not to non-tender him?
45 JJD – No, I actually meant it the way you read it. I was trying a very dry stab at humor and apparently failed miserably, sorry. It was either that or say something mean to someone who is happy with this team and their organizational direction. I’m just worn out complaining about what Bavasi does. I am now willing to sit back and see how ugly he can make this before he is cut loose and replaced by a clone.
The small comfort that some of I take (not DMZ, but a few of us) is that, compared to lots of teams, we can afford to make this mistake without crippling our team
That’s debatable. The mistakes add up. They overlap. And together they prevent the team from getting qualitatively better than it is. Sure, Sexson is gone after next year, and more guys are gone after that. But in ‘09, we’ll be having this exact same conversation about whatever guy they spent too much on, and looking forward to the day Silva is off the books so “we should have reasonable money to spend.” It just never ends. Spending money stupidly on long term contracts now just means there isn’t money to be spent smartly in the future. Repeatedly spending money stupidly, even if “you can afford it” is just a good way to spend a lot of money without having anything like postseason success to show for it.
It would be one thing if the M’s were far and away richer than every other team in the league, but they’re not. Or at least far and away richer than every other team in the division. But the Angels aren’t getting poorer. And if you throw a bunch of money away on long-term contracts “because you can afford it” pretty soon you’re left with having to act like a small-market team because that’s all the payroll you have left. At that point your only option is to be a smart — but if you were smart, you wouldn’t have got yourself into that predicament in the first place. Yeah, it’s nice rich like the Yankees. But it’s better to be rich and smart, like the Red Sox.
“joser Says:
Oh well, it’s only money. And it’s not even my money. (Nor will it be: I went to a century-low one game last year — to see Santana pitch — and I doubt I’ll exceed that in ‘08).
December 20th, 2007 at 2:29 pm”
Not true joser… as long as the taxpayers fund the ballparks so billionaires don’t have to… it is our money.
I’ve not gone to a Mariner game or any ML game since the last strike. I still love the game but I’m not giving them any of my money voluntarily. Screw ‘em.
THAT is an excellent question. But wait, isn’t Stottlemyre going to fix HoRam? IIRC, he said he had some ideas, right? So he’s our best option for #5. Maybe we don’t need Bedard or Santana after all – we’ve got HoRam and Mel.
It’s not just the money. It’s also the roster spot. If he ’struggles’ can he be kicked down to Tacoma to give a promising kid a shot? (Recall the “Free Adam Jones” movement of last season?).
I know there are rules about veterans, and contracts to consider, but even without that, this kind of contract means, Silva is on the roster for the next 4 years.
Ref: (See “Richie Sexson”.)
I just hate how we are crucifying this guy and our FO before he even throws a pitch. At least let him fall apart before we blow this one up. If he manages to be league average over the next 3-4 years then most likely we’ve escaped total destruction.
By the way, I’m not a supporter of Bavasi at all but there is no evidence that this guy will be a total bust (Silva)
HoRam has to be a little bit better than he was last year, right? He’s got to be pretty cheap and he could maybe have success in long relief and spot starting. The way pitchers are paid now a days, it doesn’t seem far fetched to feel this guy may earn his paycheck this year, (unlike last year!)
Upgrading #5 by tendering a 4 yr/$48M contract seems like adopting the nuclear option to weed your garden (and in the case of the Mariners it’s like weeding your garden during a drought).
The money doesn’t concern me at all, it’s the years. Though the contract essentially finishes off whatever prime Silva may have (age 32 season), because extreme groundballers have years of off / on results, it’s hard to say we’ll get even max perceived value for this guy after a year or two. However, by 2011, if our rotation looks to be any combination of Felix, Tillman/Butler/Ramirez/Aumont/Morrow, Silva, then I won’t complain too much.
There’s also a possibility that Silva hasn’t exceeded market value and may be tradable. If Dave’s numbers on veteran pitchers are right, and that ~8 million is a typical market value for a veteran pitcher, then at ~12 a year, he’s overpaid 16 million for the life of his contract, but only 4 million a year. That’s still movable.
We are paying 12 million a year for a guy that wouldn’t even make the Angel’s (our biggest competition) starting rotation. I just don’t get this move.
And has anybody noticed that Bavasi has started an acting career? I was shocked to see him in the new Alien vs. Predator previews. (He was an alien)
I agree. I don’t believe the issue here is money. It’s never been money. We may perceive a limit to what the M”s have to offer, but there seemingly has never been a shortage of money to spend when the M’s actually make offers. If anything, it’s the quality of player they chose to offer it to and the poor contract terms they are signed to. They chronically write bad contracts and overpay for the quality of player they receive.
I think moving pitchers is only viable for you if you have someone younger coming up through the system to replace that pitcher. And teams trading with you aren’t going to want the veteran pitcher; they’re going to want that younger pitcher (who can see as well as you) that’s just as effective AND MUCH CHEAPER.
More times than not, when you enter the free agent market, you are overpaying for the production you get.
Generally, if you’re going to be overpaying…you ought to be overpaying for stuff you can can’t easily get from your farm system–i.e., superstars.
Silva is not a superstar.
Can we call this the dumbest thing Mac has ever said…
“He is a strike thrower who produces a lot of groundballs, and that is going to make our defense even better.”
Ummm, McLaren, just cause they are ground balls doesn’t mean your players will some how become more talented defenders. If they couldn’t turn the ground balls into outs last year they still won’t be able to this year.
But we have so many canddates to choose from….
How many other organizations are this dumb? Really… this is ridiculous. If Bavasi doesn’t understand the problem with paying $12,000,000/year for a player who is 5% better than a guy who’d cost $500,000/year, then he’s just an idiot.
fine snark from someone at Rotoworld:
“It’s an incredible haul for a guy who spent part of 2006 banished to the pen and has given up more than a run for every strikeout he’s recorded in each of his four seasons as a starting pitcher. To put it another way, the Mariners are spending $12 million per year on a guy who wouldn’t even crack the rotation of the team they’re trying to catch in the AL West.”
well, the Brewers just gave Gabe Kapler a major league contract at double the major league minimum to play outfield after Kapler spent last year managing…
“He is a strike thrower who produces a lot of groundballs, and that is going to make our defense even better.â€
So, let me get this straight: the defense makes the pitchers better, and the pitchers make the defense better? So… what, the first day they all walk onto the field together the feedback loop begins spinning until the entire diamond explodes in an cascade of infinite awesomeness?
72: um actually, I have to seriously wonder if that is indeed what Bavasi is envisioning . . .
Joser (57),
First of all, let me say that Jeff at LookoutLanding just said almost exactly what I said – he even used the term ‘cripple’.
I understand how you feel, but I’m choosing to focus on THIS move, not the inevitability of this mistake being repeated. Things change. GMs come and go. Speaking of which, I think the chances of BB being gone at the end of ‘08 are better than ever, given the obvious mediocrity of this club, and the high chance the will end up at or below .500. I can see the ownership deciding it’s time to give someone else a chance.
So, yes, eventually Bavasi could cripple the club – but I’m just saying he hasn’t done it with this move, and there’s a chance he won’t get the opportunity. That’s all. Also, it isn’t totally inevitable Bavasi will ruin us if he stays – after all, he’s been making this mistake for a number of years now (Sexson, Washburn, Vidro thru trade). Maybe it’s a sustainable string of errors. Unlikely, but I don’t know.
Anyway, I am tempering your (and my) realism with some optimism. There is no defense of this move. There is only the consolation that if we were a team with a smaller payroll, we would be in even worse trouble than we already are.
Here’s a link that indicates Brad Wilkerson’s name is being tossed around in the FO as a potential replacement for Jones in right field. Anyone have a clue on his defense (the commodity of choice on this site)?
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20071220/BLOG05/126819430
msb – that may not be so dumb.
Milwaukee only signed Kapler only signed him for $800,000. He could do nothing but work on his tan and still orders of magnitude less damage to the Brewers than Silva will do to the M’s.
The author mentions that Cameron’s 150 K’s would be painful if paired with Sexson but failed to notice that Wilkerson’s 162-game average for K’s 162. Wilkerson’s OBP is 100 points over his AVG but the merit of such an accomplishment is tarnished when said AVG is .250ish. Besides, Cameron is a .250ish hitter and carries an OBP 90 points over AVG. So what’s the difference? Power? Nope, SLG is practically identical. Walks? Nope, both guys know how to take a walk. At the plate, the two guys are a wash.
On the bases, Cammy is mildly dangerous but he also turns 35 in January so we probably shouldn’t expect much.
And then there is defense . . .
Due to injuries and his ability to play multiple positions, LF is the only position Wilkerson has played with any regularity over the past few seasons, so a look into his Zone Rating and Range Factor might not be accurate . . . but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t look. Over the past few seasons, Wilkerson has a Range Factor in LF of about 2.00 (Hideki Matsui/Pat Burrell territory) and a Zone Rating between 8.45 and 8.10 (Adam Dunn/Carlos Lee). The value of these statistics is debatable, but being linked to those four guys is not a good thing unless we are talking offense, which we most certainly are not.
With Ibanez in LF (only Manny Ramirez posted a lower ZR in 2007), the last thing we need is another plodder manning the other foul pole.
I didn’t look up Cameron’s RF/ZR because it’s safe to say it makes Wilkerson look like stick in the ground.
As for affordability, no doubt Wilkerson fits the budget . . . but just because a turd is free doesn’t mean you should take it home with you.
Bah humbug. When did Scrooge start running the M’s. Oh, wait. Scrooge was a penny pincher. The last thing he would’ve done is pay a #5 starter $12 Million a year.
I think I’ll settle down for a long winter’s nap.