Brandon Morrow, Starting Pitcher
If there has been one theme to the Mariners public statements in the last week, it seems to be that they’re content to go into the season with Brandon Morrow penciled in as the team’s #5 starter. As John McLaren told John Hickey today, “”I am very high on Brandon Morrow.”
The Mariners have essentially made it known that they’re not really interested in acquiring a one year stopgap, as they aren’t impressed by guys like Bartolo Colon and expect that Morrow could offer them similar performance if needed. They’re still likely to pursue deals for a pitcher like Erik Bedard, but failing that, it’s certainly realistic to believe that the team could head to Peoria with Morrow as a member of the team’s rotation.
Personally, I think that’s borderline insane.
The difference between pitching out of the bullpen and starting a game couldn’t be any larger. Besides the fact that both involve hurling a baseball towards home plate, they have almost nothing in common. The skills needed to start are vastly different than the skills needed to relieve, and success out of the ‘pen means basically nothing when trying to figure out if a pitcher is quailfied to take a spot in the rotation.
When being used as a reliever, weaknesses can be easily minimized by managerial usage patterns, allowing players with one unique skill to be used only when that skill is the most likely to be effective. Need a groundball against a right-hander? Go with Sean Green. Need a strikeout against a lefty? George Sherrill says hello. Runner at third, one out, tie game, and you badly need a strikeout, while a walk just isn’t a big deal? Brandon Morrow’s skillset was made for that situation. Two walks and a strikeout and he’s out of the inning without the run scoring, which makes for a successful outing.
However, a successful start is wildly different than a successful relief appearance, and they require totally different skills. Essentially, to be a good major league starting pitcher, you have to be able to do four of the following things:
Command your fastball
Change speeds
Throw an outpitch with significant movement
Have pitches that tail away from both LH and RH hitters
Pitch unpredictably
If you can only do three of those, you can still be a decently effective backend starter, but to be an above average contributor, you better be able to do four of them. The all-star starters do all five.
Relievers can succeed by doing just one of those things well. Sean Green, for instance, doesn’t command his fastball very well, doesn’t change speeds, has nothing to throw left-handers, and is one of the most predictable pitchers in the majors. The only thing he does on that list is throw an outpitch with significant movement – his diving sinker is enough to help him dominate right-handed hitters, and the Mariners are able to use his one skill in situations where it’s exactly what is required, giving him good opportunities to succeed.
So, of that list, what can we say that Brandon Morrow is capable of doing right now?
Command his fastball?
Certainly not. Morrow, while pitching at max effort coming out of the ‘pen last year, essentially had no idea where his fastball was going most of the time. Assuming he doesn’t throw at 100% effort on every pitch during his move to being a starter, we can assume that his command will improve, but there’s no reason to think that it will go from being horrible to above average in one winter. It will be a success if his command isn’t a problem, but there’s just no reason to think that it will be a strength in 2008.
Change speeds?
Nope. Morrow essentially features a fastball, a slider, and a split-finger. Coming out of the bullpen, these ranged from between 86 and 96 MPH on average. We’ll knock a couple MPH off for the move to a starter, but throwing an 83 MPH splitter and a 93 MPH fastball does not count as changing speeds. Everything he throws would be considered a power pitch.
Throw an outpitch with significant movement
Morrow’s fastball was certainly an outpitch last year. His velocity and movement made it extremely tough for right-handers to pick up, and he was able to just throw the ball past hitters with some consistency, even when they knew it was coming. As a starter, he’ll lose some of that velocity, but the fastball should still be an outpitch for him when he needs it. We’ll give him this one.
Have pitches that tail away from both LH and RH hitters
This one is often overlooked when talking about reliever to rotation conversions, and it’s a pretty big deal. Much like we talked about with Carlos Silva last week, a key to being able to get through 6-7 innings with regularity is to have a pitch that keeps opposite handed hitters off balance. For most starters, this is either the curve ball or change-up. Fastballs and sliders tend to bore in on opposite handed hitters, and when they aren’t located perfectly, they get yanked over the fence for a home run. Having a pitch with tailing movement keeps hitters from being able to just setup to pull every pitch you throw them.
Morrow simply doesn’t have anything resembling a pitch that will keep left-handed hitters off balance. His slider and splitter are so similar that they can easily be mistaken for one another, and his fastball has typical movement in towards a left-handed batter. Like almost every other pitcher with these pitches and no curveball or change-up, he struggled badly against lefties last year; .287/.437/.411 with 27 walks and 22 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances. And keep in mind, that was with an ability to selectively lift him against tough lefties in high leverage situations, so those numbers are artificially deflated by removing many of the more challenging opportunities a starting pitcher would have to face. George Sherrill’s not coming in to get David Ortiz out in the third inning.
Pitch unpredictably
If we had done this one at midseason last year, it would have been a vehement no. In the first half of the year, Morrow threw almost nothing but fastballs. He just came in, chucked the ball as hard as he could, and sat down. In the second half, however, he started mixing in his slider/splitter, and became somewhat less predictable. Given the move to the rotation, you have to think that he’ll continue to pitch more like he did in the second half, so we’ll give him a little credit for this – however, we’ve never seen Morrow have to face batters multiple times in a game, so we really have no idea how well he’ll adjust to major league hitters. This is really a big question mark.
Okay, so, of the five skills needed to succeed as a starting pitcher, we can say that Morrow has one (probably, if the velocity loss doesn’t have more of an effect than assumed) and might have another one (but we won’t know for sure until after the season starts). He definitely does not have the other three.
If you can find me a pitcher that is succeeding in a major league rotation with no more than 1 1/2 of the above skills, I’ll wear an I Heart John McLaren shirt on opening day next year.
McLaren can be high on Brandon Morrow if he wants to. The Mariners can believe in Morrow’s talent all they want, and they can talk themselves into believing that his 4.00 ERA out of the pen last year means that he’s capable of pitching well in the rotation in 2008. However, if we look at what Brandon Morrow can actually do, it becomes pretty clear that this is a guy who just didn’t possess the skills to pitch in a major league rotation in 2007. If you think a few starts against Double-A quality hitters in Venezuela this winter is enough for him to develop the necessary skills, well, then you have enough faith to toss Mt. Rainier into the sea.
The Mariners fancy themselves as a contender next year. There’s not a contender in baseball going into 2008 with a guy as woefully unprepared for a starting rotation job as Brandon Morrow.
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thank goodness Mac also tells us:
“Horacio Ramirez has a strength coach, and he’s been building himself up,” McLaren said. “I talked to him the other day, and I liked what I heard. He’s working with Mel (new pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre), and we’re anxious to see where he’s at. He had some spurts where he pitched well for us last year.”
sigh. spurts.
In Mac’s defense, the M’s contended for most of last year with HoRam as a starter.
But your point is taken. I still feel that the M’s are building up Morrow in an effort to provide public reasons as to why they refuse to part with him in a potential trade for Bedard, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
In the end, I have an uninformed hunch that the M’s will get someone like Fogg to be the fifth starter and Morrow will be in the bullpen. Bavasi has made it clear in his statements that if Morrow wasn’t the fifth starter, then he would be in the pen with the big league club. More so than Morrow being misused as a starter in April, I fear that the M’s will refuse to let him develop as a starter in Tacoma or W. Tenn. and make him into a career relief pitcher.
And, I didn’t include this in the post because it didn’t fit, but if the Mariners go with a rotation of Hernandez-Silva-Batista-Washburn-Morrow, they’d be the easiest team in baseball to match up against.
Mariners starters, vs LH hitters, 2007 OPS:
Hernandez: .858
Silva: .812
Batista: .833
Washburn: .593
Morrow: .848
Have a bunch of lefties in your line-up? You’re going to score a million runs against the M’s on days when Jarrod Washburn’s not pitching. And, when Washburn takes the hill, you can just load up on right-handed hitters (.817 OPS vs RH last year) and whack him around too.
The Mariners can’t seriously think about going into 2008 with four guys who all have the exact same flaw in their rotation, especially when that one flaw is the one that their park doesn’t do anything to help with.
speaking of faith, I am guessing that you don’t think Mel will be such a Miracle Worker.
It seems to me another quality a starter must have that a reliever doesn’t is stamina. Granted, scaling back from a 100% effort on every pitch makes a difference, but it certainly has to require something more to pitch a hundred pitches than twenty.
If the M’s always wanted someone who could contribute quickly, why didn’t they draft Lincecum? It was common knowledge on draft day that Morrow was no where near ready to be a starter in the majors, while Lincecum was.
I’m starting to think that this organization’s lack of patience is it’s worst flaw.
Going back to college Morrow never pitched more then 96.2 innings in a year and only 151 IP over 3 years. Asking him to throw even 150 innings might be asking to much of him. I don’t see him going close to 200, but good thing thats the main reason we got Silva. Another conflicting reason on deciding who will be your starters. Seattle Mariners your paradox team!
Dave, I’m confused on your part about tailing pitches.
You say:
For most starters, this is either the curve ball or change-up. Fastballs and sliders tend to bore in on opposite handed hitters.
So a RH throwing a fastball or slider, it tails towards the left, which I think we all agree with. But you mention a curve and change as, I assume based on context, pitches the move in the opposite direction. Again, I think we all agree that on the change, it will tail to the right(pitching side); but a curve ball? Wouldn’t a curve that moves to the pitching side be a screwball?
If you can find me a pitcher that is succeeding in a major league rotation with no more than 1 1/2 of the above skills, I’ll wear an I Heart John McLaren shirt on opening day next year.
Tim Wakefield?
I thought about clarifying that, but didn’t get around to it. Think of it this way – a curveball tails in significantly less than a fastball or slider, especially a big 12-6 curve. While it doesn’t tail away from an opposite handed hitter, it moves towards them much less. Much in the way we think of a four-seam fastball as a “rising fastball” because it sinks less than a two-seam, a curveball doesn’t move in on a LH batter (from a RH pitcher) nearly as much as a fastball or slider.
The change-up is still the best weapon to keep opposite handed hitters at bay, but the curve can work well too.
Tim Wakefield?
Even beyond the fact that the knuckleball is a category unto itself, Wakefield has the best command of any knuckler in 20 years. It definitely is an outpitch, and it has movement away from both left-handed and right-handed hitters. I’d give him credit for three of the five.
Dave, I looked for the “buy the author a keg” button but couldn’t find it. Awesome thread- a free beer wouldn’t do it justice. I have come to eagerly anticipate your threads on player evaluation but your most recent two on pitching have been light tower homeruns.
Obviously the Ms hope that Morrow’s peripherals (specifically his command) would be much improved in ‘08. Switching Morrow to the rotation might normally be expected to raise his ERA almost a full run, decrease his Krate by 30% and increase his walk rate by 20%. It’s difficult to see how Morrow could take such hits to his ‘07 K/9 of 9.38 and BB/9 of 7.11 and even reasonably be expected to be an effective starter. Add to that the platoon effect due to holes in his arsenal and this statement seems to cut to the chase like a hot knife through butter:
Basically poor command/platoon-deficient arsenal/poorly developed “pitchability” = sub-replacement level starter.
To the Ms, it apparently means an upgrade of their #5 spot in the rotation.
I hope this won’t be one of those “can’t help but look” moments in Mariner history…
How would RRS stack up against these 5 traits? Not to jack a future thread if you are planning on doing one.
Dave, I’m not confused about anything you’ve said here. The AL & NL contenders aren’t confused either. Armstrong is doing his “heavy lifting” in the offseason and the results are awful. Fantasy baseball takes on a whole new meaning in the M’s front office.
How would RRS stack up against these 5 traits? Not to jack a future thread if you are planning on doing one.
I think that Rowland-Smith has four of these five traits. He has command, changes speeds, throws pitches that work against both LH and RH hitters, and mixes his pitches. He doesn’t have an outpitch, and since none of his pitches are above average, he still profiles as a back-end starter, but he’s clearly more qualified for a rotation gig than Morrow is.
Giving 1/2 for pitch unpredictably may be generous even with last year’s 2nd half performance. Unless the arrival of Mel signals a change in the “establish the fastball early” philosophy for young, developing pitchers, it seems likely that Brandon will get lit up early as Felix has been in the past.
I feel bad for Morrow. I hope his career doesn’t get ruined because this backward franchise screwed him up.
To be sure, I’m not making a direct comparison with Morrow here, because Brandon just isn’t as good, but being a raw-but-average pitcher with just a few of your skills isn’t unprecedented.
It hasn’t happened in a while, though.
Randy Johnson, 1991.
* Command your fastball – No command whatsoever.
* Change speeds – Fastball/Slider. Not that different.
* Throw an outpitch with significant movement – Had 2 great pitches, which Morrow doesn’t have. Both could be considered out pitches.
* Have pitches that tail away from both LH and RH hitters – I don’t have any video, but Fastball/Slider guys are normally in the ‘pen because both pitches move in the same direction across the plate, the slider just much more so.
* Pitch unpredictably – If you count “is it going toward the catcher or the broadcast booth” as unpredictable, then yes. Otherwise, you know you’re going to get a few fastballs in every plate appearance.
Finished 13-10 with an ERA under 4 in the Kingdome. once again, I’ll drop dead of shock if Morrow repeats that performance, but if your 1 skill is way above the rest of the league, then it can hide some deficiencies in the other areas.
Right – there’s an exception to every rule. In this case, if you have a hall of fame fastball, a hall of fame slider, and stand 6′10 so you release the ball later than everyone else in the game, you can succeed without having all the other stuff.
I’m going out on a limb and say Brandon Morrow doesn’t fit the exception criteria.
I think Morrow will be an outstanding starter — in 2011, for some other team. Seriously, he’s pitched 230 innings, TOTAL, college+minors+majors, over four years worth, plus 30 or 40 in Venezuela. I guess that makes him not an injury risk? But when exactly in that career did he learn ANYTHING about starting in the big leagues? What happens to his confidence when he gets rocked for ten runs in April?
This isn’t how Leo Mazzone worked all those years in Atlanta, that’s for sure.
Actually, 1989 Randy Johnson isn’t too far off from what I’d expect out of Morrow. Throw in about 15-20 more walks, subtract about 10-15 strikeouts, and add in a few more ERs (bringing his ERA over 5), and that’s not too far off. 1989 RJ was still pretty raw. I don’t think Morrow has the talent/skills to turn into RJ, but the sheer rawness that RJ displayed in his early starting career is about what I expect from Morrow.
Honestly, Morrow just smacks of Matt Thornton to me. I have no idea why, but that’s the name I associate Morrow with. Tons of walks, a decent amount of Ks, and waaaay too many HRs. But Thornton has a little bit of an advantage in that he’s a lefty…
I don’t see what you guys are so worked up about. Miracle Mel will show him how to pitch inside!
Really though, this is a pretty bad idea, and it won’t take long for the team to realize it. Including the team’s tendency to stick with someone too long, I’m setting the over/under on his AAA demotion at June 15.
Josh Kalk’s summary of Morrow’s stuff in ‘07 supports the notion that Brandon throws his splitter and slider at similar velocities (approximately 10 mph below his mid-90’s fastball). However the pitch f/x data suggests (unless I’m a wiggser) that Morrow’s fastball tails into righties (-5.11 inches break in X). Also it suggests his splitter breaks toward righties (-5.97 break X) while his slider breaks slightly toward lefties (+2 inch break X)-a break differential that would seem to suggest significantly different movement.
What am I missing here?
Morrow is like Bizarro Adam Jones. The Mariners simply refuse to keep him off the MLB roster.
Great analysis, Dave.
With so much to work on prior to becoming an effective starter, would you advocate trading Morrow for something useful if you can find GM’s who believe he has value?
In other words… is Jones AND Morrow too expensive for Bedard?
The Pitch F/X numbers themselves are somewhat counterintuitive (as everything is measured off of a theoretical spinless pitch thrown in zero gravity), while the system itself and Kalk’s algorithm for classifying pitches aren’t exact enough to break things down to specific levels.
You can use the system to compare pitch types to one another (again, using more generalizations, because there are differences from park to park), but it’s not quite correct to say that something with a negative value moves the opposite way of something with a positive value.
Jones by himself is too expensive for Bedard and I’m not exaggerating.
Meh. I’d rather tune in to watch Morrow pitch every 5th day than Ho-Ram.
Dave, if the front office came to their senses a little what do you think a realistic timeline for having an actually effective starting Morrow in the majors would be? Is it something one year in AAA could help him devolop or do you think he’s realistically 2+ years in AA/AAA from being a real major league stater?
You said last week essentially that Silva only has one!
He also mentioned Silva’s changeup, which can count as both changing speeds and having a pitch that tails away from lefties. So there’s three, and as Dave wrote, “If you can only do three of those, you can still be a decently effective backend starter . . .”
Seems to describe Silva quite well.
Moving Morrow to the rotation doesn’t just baffle statheads and analysts. Traditionalist baseball wisdom also disagrees with the M’s approach to developing skillsets at the Major League level. Nobody but a handful of beatwriters will approve of this move.
What philosophy does Bavasi subscribe to? This doesn’t even fit the criteria of his “experience failure early and often” approach. He really doesn’t see the value in the minor league system at all.
Could this situation be analogous at all to the Adam Wainwright move for the Cards last year?
Could this situation be analogous at all to the Adam Wainwright move for the Cards last year?
Adam Wainwright spent six years in the minors learning how to be a starting pitcher.
@33
No. Wainwright had:
A) good success in the pen in ‘06 (look at the K/BB ratios for him and Morrow)
and FAR more importantly
B)135 starts in the minors
I think you’re being unnecessarily unfair, Dave. Truth is, none of us really have any idea what’s going to happen here because the method of Morrow’s development is virtually unprecedented. You’re also blanketing a lot of his problems together while ignoring progress. I know we hate using small sample sizes here, but it’s our only data for trend measurement on Morrow.
First half: 32 IP, 33 BB, 32 SO
Second half: 31.1 IP, 17 BB, 34 SO
If the mixing in of his pitches for the second half observation is true, then his ability to command his fastball may end up being a moot point. Being unpredictable, having a live fastball, and then keeping people off balance with the splitfinger or slider (which are slower speeds, regardless of their designation as power pitches) has already shown to improve Morrow’s ability to get people out without giving up free passes.
I know the winter ball numbers are relatively useless as well, but we can at least use them to observe that Morrow is progressively demonstrating a better ability to throw strikes. Yes, the hitters are inferior and / or not necessarily focused on hitting, but seeing as how Morrow hasn’t had a minor league development coil, his starts against leagues chocked full of other team’s minor league players at least gives us some notion that he’s capable of getting people out via strikeouts and groundballs.
To go further, though the split against lefties was used in it’s entirety, the blind OPS was used to demonstrate his inability to get lefties out. The stat line against lefties shows that he walks way too many of them, not that he gets crushed by them (a .437 OBP, but only a .411 SLG%). Aside from the OBP, lefties were actually only hitting close to replacement level against him.
I’m not saying that you’re wrong, Dave. Philosophically, this is a really stupid idea. It’s almost the extreme version of TINSTAAPP, which is something I’ve never believed in. But we’re acting as though Morrow, the player, can’t do this because the coaches and management are outweighing his talent. At what point does a player’s talent no longer matter?
I’m confused.
Weren’t we all complaining last year because the Ms didn’t send Morrow to the minors as a starter?
Wasn’t he a great starter in college?
I agree that he didn’t exhibit the skills to be a good starter last year, but haven’t we always envisioned him as a starter eventually?
Morrow had a total of 24 starts and 150 IP in three years as a college pitcher.
He’s pretty green by anyone’s standards.
Weren’t we all complaining last year because the Ms didn’t send Morrow to the minors as a starter?
And now Dave is complaining that the Mariners aren’t sending Morrow to the minors as a starter.
I know the Mariners like to challenge their prospects, but there’s a difference between putting players in challenging situations where they have to handle adversity and putting players in situations that they are unprepared for. This seems more like the latter than the former to me.
I agree that he didn’t exhibit the skills to be a good starter last year, but haven’t we always envisioned him as a starter eventually?
Yes, which is why he needs to be in the minors getting ready for that day. That day should not come in 2008.
He’s far too unprepared to be a starter in the majors, and he’s far too promising to be wasting away in the bullpen when he should be developing into a starter. So no matter what, he should not be on the big club. But Bavasi has hinted that whether as a starter or a reliever, Morrow will be in the bigs this year. No matter how they choose to use him, if it doesn’t involve the minors, it seems incredibly unwise.
I guess I don’t get what’s confusing you.
ruth is, none of us really have any idea what’s going to happen here because the method of Morrow’s development is virtually unprecedented.
You know what’s also unprecedented – people flying by jumping off buildings. I’m still going out on a limb and saying that if you jump off a building, you’re going to die.
I know we hate using small sample sizes here, but it’s our only data for trend measurement on Morrow.
There’s no such thing as valid trend measurement in baseball using these kinds of sample sizes. This example is totally useless, and drawing conclusions from it is bad analysis.
Being unpredictable, having a live fastball, and then keeping people off balance with the splitfinger or slider (which are slower speeds, regardless of their designation as power pitches) has already shown to improve Morrow’s ability to get people out without giving up free passes.
Being unpredictable, having a live fastball, keeping people off balance with a power pitch (regardless of what you think, it does matter), and having no command has already shown you to be Daniel Cabrera. It’s not a recipe for being a good starter.
I know the winter ball numbers are relatively useless as well
Not relatively useless – totally useless.
but we can at least use them to observe that Morrow is progressively demonstrating a better ability to throw strikes.
No, we can’t. What he does against Double-A hitters in winter ball games that don’t count doesn’t matter at all.
Aside from the OBP, lefties were actually only hitting close to replacement level against him.
Uhh, aside from OBP, Rickey Henderson was a pretty crappy left fielder. But because of OBP, he’s a hall of famer. OBP matters.
That’s a pretty absurd response from you, Dave.
Jesus, Dave. If you’re trying to compare a bare naked human jumping off a building to an athlete who at least has the talent and stuff to pitch being thrown into a starting job, then I think you need to work on your analogies.
It has already been observed that people who try to jump off buildings, without parachutes, jet packs, or other man made flying instruments, will undoubtedly die due to the limitations of the human anatomy. It has not been observed that the methods the Mariners are taking are going to work or not going to work. I agreed it was a dumb risk, but I’m not prepared to automatically write off Morrow the player just because the FO is stupid.
It’s all we got, so unless you want to throw out all of Brandon Morrow’s professional statistics as one steaming pile of small sample size, then we’re going to have to deal with it for now. Or don’t use them at all yourself.
Nor a recipe for disaster. No, it wont bring out Morrow’s full potential, but it wont impact the team’s chances, one way or the other, of making the postseason. We never realistically had a chance anyway.
They’re still AA level hitters, some prospects, some not. Considering Morrow has never had the chance to develop against any of his minor league peers, we can at least take it as a modicrum of potential talent. Even if you want to completely disregard the meaningfulness of winter ball games, it does not disregard the meaningfulness of what Morrow has been able to do there. He has been able to ptich, he has been able to throw the ball over the plate, and he has managed to do so without injury or discomfort. Even if we disregard the entirety of winter ball as meaningless, we should not disregard everything about a player’s progression during it.
You used OPS to make your point, and you used it incorrectly. The OPS was heavily inflated by Morrow’s inability to throw strikes, which was his most nagging problem, not by the left hander’s ability to punish his pitches.
Lemme backpeddle and make sure my point is clear:
The FO, McLaren, and their decisions they’ve made on Brandon Morrow are ridiculous. I am not ready to just write off Brandon Morrow himself, though. I don’t think he’s going to magically turn into a starter, but I don’t think he’s going to be a worse 5th starter option then some of our other guys.
As for Aussie Aussie-Aussie, I like him, too. I’m not as convinced he could start as well as he relieves, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have another lefty starter.
If you’re trying to compare a bare naked human jumping off a building . . .
Who said he was naked?! The inclusion of that made my evening. Thank you.
Nobody is “writing off” Brandon Morrow. The fact that you are repeatedly implying that people are, when they aren’t, might have something to do with the tone of the responses you are getting.
The point being made is that he is not ready to be even a #5 starter for the Mariners in 2008, and the team putting him in that position not only ignores better options (RRS, picking up Colon or whoever from the scrap heap) but also impedes Morrow’s future development, since it’s very difficult to develop the necessary skills in the majors.
Does that make enough sense that we can put the straw men away? Please?
If you’re trying to compare a bare naked human jumping off a building to an athlete who at least has the talent and stuff to pitch being thrown into a starting job, then I think you need to work on your analogies.
Okay, maybe you’ll like this one better. Birds have flying talent – they do it all the time. Take a one day old baby eagle and throw it out of a tree, then tell me how well that worked out for you as you’re being arrested for killing the little guy. You can scream that you’ve seen birds all over the world fly all you want, and you’ll still be an idiot for throwing a one day old bird out of a tree.
I agreed it was a dumb risk, but I’m not prepared to automatically write off Morrow the player just because the FO is stupid.
I like how “not ready to start in the majors” is writing Morrow off. Way to be the guy reaching reasonable conclusions here.
It’s all we got, so unless you want to throw out all of Brandon Morrow’s professional statistics as one steaming pile of small sample size, then we’re going to have to deal with it for now. Or don’t use them at all yourself.
Or, we can actually understand what has predictive value and what doesn’t. Skillsets have predictive value, so that’s what I talked about. “Trend analysis” over 20 innings has zero predictive value, and that’s what you talked about. If I thought his statistics had any usefulness, I probably would have talked about them, no?
Nor a recipe for disaster. No, it wont bring out Morrow’s full potential, but it wont impact the team’s chances, one way or the other, of making the postseason. We never realistically had a chance anyway.
Right, so because you’ve arbitrarily decided that the team has zero chance of making the playoffs (how did you think Colorado was going to do last year, by the way?), every decision they make is granted immunity and doesn’t matter. Got it.
Considering Morrow has never had the chance to develop against any of his minor league peers, we can at least take it as a modicrum of potential talent.
No, we can’t. You can recognize winter ball performance for what it is – completely and utterly useless for any kind of analysis – and stop pretending there’s actual value in the data.
You used OPS to make your point, and you used it incorrectly.
I didn’t use OPS to make my point, nor did I use it incorrectly. But other than that, spot on.
The OPS was heavily inflated by Morrow’s inability to throw strikes, which was his most nagging problem, not by the left hander’s ability to punish his pitches.
You might want to consider that maybe, just maybe, his inability to throw strikes had something to do with the fact that hitter’s weren’t punishing his pitches – there’s no motivation to swing if you know you have a 44% chance of reaching base by being patient.
You can’t just remove the glaring flaw and assume everything else is independent of that.
I wholeheartedly agree that Morrow’s development by the Mariners, or lack thereof, has been one big error. In a sense, I’m agreeing but disagreeing. When I say “write Morrow off”, I don’t mean entirely. What I mean, or at least what I think, is that we are ignoring his talent being able to overcome what has been his development arc, and are instead focusing too much on the development arc itself. IE: Because we haven’t had the chance to see Morrow develop, that means he has nearly zero chance of being a useful starter this season.
<blockquote.Okay, maybe you’ll like this one better. Birds have flying talent – they do it all the time. Take a one day old baby eagle and throw it out of a tree, then tell me how well that worked out for you as you’re being arrested for killing the little guy. You can scream that you’ve seen birds all over the world fly all you want, and you’ll still be an idiot for throwing a one day old bird out of a tree.
Yes, that does work much better, tho perhaps not that young an eagle. It’s also the part of your argument I agree with. Morrow should be somewhere not the major league level learning how to start and shouldn’t be thrown out there with little development time.
I merely meant this year, not write off entirely. My apologies. I know you’re in favor of more development time, as am I. I just don’t think that if he is thrown out there to pitch, he’s going to be as much a failure as you predict he will be.
Again, I wholeheartedly agree. Skillset analysis is the most reliable method of future prediction. The problem with Brandon Morrow is that his skillset hasn’t been fully fleshed out yet. While his current skillset is what we have to go on, that isn’t to say it is the entirety of what he can do. If a player is showing marked improvement in one facet of his skillset that he didn’t have before, can’t we not take that into account as well?
I’m not defending their decision. I’m defending Brandon Morrow.
Even going so far as to ignore any progress that a player makes in one of his weak areas?
That also doesn’t indicate that they’re capable of doing so. It’s just as possible that Morrow, himself, made a concerted effort not to throw strikes to left handed batters, because he knew he doesn’t have a pitch that tails away from them to reliably get them out. There’s several possibilities as to why the results were what they were, this is why we don’t use results based analysis.
Oh I agree, but the reasons why things came out the way they did is just as important.
Typical Idiot Fan, if you don’t mind, here’s what I think you’re trying to say: Brandon Morrow is a pitcher with a lot of potential. Good stuff. No current significant injuries that we know of. He is also very young with a short major league track record. Therefore, there is a chance he’ll take a major step forward and be a pretty good major league starting pitcher next year.
Dave’s response, I think, would be that we know enough about Morrow to determine that it is unlikely that Morrow will take such a major step forward and that, therefore, based on what we know, putting him into the starting rotation is not likely to work out.
We see this sort of debate all the time. One person says… he might be reallllly good. The other guy says, yeah, but based on what we know, he will probably be bad. You’re both right, but neither of these statements directly answers the real question, which is, “Is it a good idea to commit to Morrow as a major league starting pitcher for the M’s in 2008?” It’s a risk/reward analysis, and I’m not sure what the correct answer is here. I guess I lean towards doing whatever it takes to turn Morrow into a great starting pitcher in the future, and that probably means AAA and some real development time. That said, once it becomes clear he could help the major league team, I think you have to bring him up.
“Is it a good idea to commit to Morrow as a major league starting pitcher for the M’s in 2008?†It’s a risk/reward analysis, and I’m not sure what the correct answer is here.
The correct answer is no.
Definately.
All right, so Morrow’s only got 1.5/5 of the important attributes. Which of the remaining skills can we realistically expect him to develop given some time in Tacoma?
Could I suggest that someone place the five attributes off in a sidebar somewhere? I suspect this will be a good reference to start (repeat, start) discussion of pitchers (and I note that this is something that’s observational/scout-based—no heavy reliance on stats….)
The point isn’t that he doesn’t have the potential to be a good starting pitcher someday. The point is that, if they put him in the rotation to start the year and commit to keeping him in the majors, the most likely result is (1) early failure as a starter, followed by either (2A) going to the rotation and spending another season NOT learning how to be a starting pitcher, or (2B) remaining in the rotation and getting bashed around all year.
2A is bad for Morrow’s development. 2B is bad for the team’s performance. A better alternative might be letting him learn how to pitch in Tacoma.
Are the Ms “committed” to Morrow being one of their five starters on opening day, or are they “committed” to giving him a shot at earning one of those five spots?
If Dave is right Morrow will struggle in the Spring and this whole argument is moot.
The problem is everyone is arguing ad ignorantiam. Truth be told, we have no clue what Morrow will do. This is quite unprecedented. All of our sample sizes are small. How do we know the true talent level of Morrow? We don’t. A perfect example of the Morrow conundrum are his splits against lefties. We don’t know why the OBP was so high, all we know was the slugging wasn’t. What can we conclude from this? Nothing, because there are multiple reasons why the slugging percentage was high. Therefore we are arguing from ignorance when we assume he can’t pitch well against lefties. Were batters taking pitches they could crush, or was he just not throwing strikes? To claim either one is an argument form ignorance.
Basically we cannot know what Morrow will do, because we do not have enough info about Morrow, or have similar historical comps. What Dave is proposing is an example of risk aversion and doing things the traditional way and this is probably the best way. But we cannot conclude that Morrow cannot succedd at the major league level as a starter now.
The whole problem here is that we’re debating this issue at all. If Bavasi wasn’t acting to save his own hide last year he would have let Morrow develop as a starter in Tacoma — at least for the first half of last year — before a late-season call-up so we could see how he’d fare against big league hitters. Instead of learning how to pitch deep into games and how to develop additional pitches, Morrow focused on the one thing that he does exceptionally well, which is throwing the ball very very fast. That worked great to help keep the M’s in the race and Bavasi in his job, but game at the expense of Morrow’s development.
So now here we are headed into 2008 and instead of excited speculation about how Morrow’s AAA stats may transfer to MLB, we have to try to extrapolate the small sample size of his rookie set-up man statistics into potential 5th starter statistics.
Shame on Bavasi and the FO for mis-managing such a promising talent. I’m sure that Morrow will have a nice MLB career — either as a stopper or a starter — but it will be *despite of* the M’s front office.
Just a further addition. We are arguing baseball philosophy against an individual case. The argument is assumed unpolished players need time in the minors. Though we have not seen the opposite course, I think most can agree that this is prudent. However, what is not necessarily true is that every unpolished player needs time in the minors. This would be committing the fallacy of division. Like I stated earlier, between lack of data and the only data we do have being out of the pen and not as a starter, we don’t know who Morrow is as a pitcher.
Therefore from a baseball philosophy standpoint we could argue sending him to the minors is the most prudent course of action (that is a separate debate). However, Morrow may very well succeed at the ML, we don’t know.
This misses the entire point.
Um, no. Just that YOU don’t know.
Generally, baseball philosophy lines up with past experience, both in the general case and IN THE SPECIFIC CASE OF MORROW. You wanna argue to break the mold–be my guest, but you HAVE to bring something to the table besides “Well, he might succeed.”
No they’re not.
Considering he wasn’t even really a good reliever last season, it’s reasonable to think we might know the outcome of thrusting him into the rotation in ‘08….
I’m no Sherlock Holmes but I’d suggest the answer to this great mystery might start with his BBrate of 22% against lefties…..
I’m really not seeing your argument about the underlying mystery.
A snarky person might suggest it’s arguing from ignorance to suggest we don’t know why Morrow didn’t pitch well against lefties. Is it really such a fantastic notion to suggest that it’s a combination of extremely poor command and no out pitch?
This isn’t so much about general baseball philosophy as it is about the fact that, while we have plenty of reasons to think that Morrow won’t succeed as an ML starter next year, we have zero reasons to think that he will.
Seriously, how do you make it through a day?
Honestly, I don’t see what makes this such a controversial post.
Does Morrow have a lot of talent? Of course.
Do we think he’s ready to be in a major league rotation? The (honest) stats’ answer is: not enough data. The scout’s answer, which Dave gave in his post, is: no, not yet.
Could Morrow defy expectations and succeed anyway? Sure, it’s possible. History and our eyeballs tell us it’s highly unlikely, but sometimes kids put it all together in a short time and magic happens.
Should the Mariners be counting on that magic by planning to have Morrow take a rotation slot even as a #5? Of course not.
Might they anyway? Yeah, unfortunately. Hopefully some of this is Bavasi posturing for the media. As others have said, I’d like to think their actual plan is to use spring training to determine if Morrow is ready and to line up the guys they’re going to use if he ends up in Tacoma, either before opening day or a start or two after.
zeke, you might POSSIBLY have a minor point, if and only if Morrow’s stats were the only support Dave provided for his argument.
However, aside from quoting the line that lefties hit against Morrow last year (and, despite your assertion, 122 plate appearances is a decent sample size), the entirety of the support he gives is scouting data about what can be observed about Morrow’s skillset. The velocity and movement on his pitches, his ability to control his pitches, etc.
The stats were introduced as just another way to give support to the scouting information presented, not as the entire underpinning of the post.
In a side note: posts whose main theme is “well u don’t have a crystal ball lolz, u might be wrong!” have been cropping up a lot lately, and they add nothing to the discussion. Skepticism is fine, but you need to have, and provide, actual REASONS for your skepticism before anyone is going to be expected to take you seriously.
Not to diss on Morrow at all, but I seem to recall the FO back in the 90’s thinking that Edwin Hurtado and Scott Sanders were both “can’t miss” starting prospects as well.
How about this:
Dave’s scouting report takes into account about 63 innings worth of observational data based on what we saw of Brandon Morrow in the majors last season. None of us have observed what Morrow has done since to improve on any of his previous flaws or weaknesses. While winter ball data can be thrown out as meaningless, the whole point of most players going to winter ball is to work on their weaknesses. Without knowing what strides, if any, Morrow has made while down there, citing 2007’s problems, as a relief pitcher, as the reasons why Morrow going forward will not work out in 2008 as a starting pitcher don’t make much sense to me.
He even speculates amongst his 5 starting pitching points that there is a possibility of one thing or another being improved or not improved depending on the differences between relief work and starting pitching. Could Morrow’s command increase because he’s not just chucking the ball up to the plate as fast as he can? Would that, in loss of velocity and / or movement, mean that his outpitch is now gone? How does that effect his secondary pitches?
Yes, the safe bet, based on decades of normal progression and player development, is that Morrow will flounder. But Brandon Morrow hasn’t had a normal development curve. Maybe that means he’s worse off then some other pitchers and maybe I’m wishful thinking here, but I’m going to bet on a player’s talent for this one case alone.
Either way, if I’m right or if I’m wrong, it’s still not the best thing for the Mariners nor Brandon Morrow’s development.
All of us know that there is little chance that Morrow will begin the season in the Minors. Which is better for his development. Morrow in the ‘pen or in the rotation?
There were a few responses and I just wanted to clarify my point. I don’t believe we have past precedent for this. Where is the historical comp? Because I don’t see it. To me this is an extremely unique set of circumstances. I was trying to claim that you can’t paint a future, I was trying to say because of the uniqueness of Morrow’s situation, arguing anything beyond we don’t is, in my opinion wrong. I am not a baseball historian, so I may be wrong, but I don’t recall something like this (where someone with extremely limited college/minor league experience) was set to start in the majors. This leads me to ask, in this special set of circumstances; A can we accuretaly project Morrow, and B do we actually know who the pitcher Brandon Morrow is?
To Terry,
“A snarky person might suggest it’s arguing from ignorance to suggest we don’t know why Morrow didn’t pitch well against lefties. Is it really such a fantastic notion to suggest that it’s a combination of extremely poor command and no out pitch?”
My whole point is that we don’t understand whether this is a result of poor command, or no out pitch, or a combination of the two. If it’s poor command, that could be much easier to rectify then lack of an out pitch. (P.S. how do you make the quotes italicized? thanks.)
He may have fixed his problems with control. I know winter ball stats are meaningless, but as stated before this is not a discussion in stats. I am looking forward to Churchill’s report on Morrow. If he is controlling the ball, rather then just taking advantge of poor hitters, the scouting report on which this discussion is built changes.
You’re not bringing anything to the table. You keep saying that the situation is “unprecendented.” One, I do not think this is the case. Two, if it is, you should be bringing up evidence in his results and pitches that would support that this is unprecedented. You’re arguing from wishful thinking, not sound evidence.
To gwangung
“You’re not bringing anything to the table. You keep saying that the situation is “unprecendented.†One, I do not think this is the case. Two, if it is, you should be bringing up evidence in his results and pitches that would support that this is unprecedented. You’re arguing from wishful thinking, not sound evidence.”
I always believed that projections were based not only on the individual but on historical comps. What historical comp is there to Morrow?
Where would the evidence be in his results or pitches? My whole point is that there is not enough results or pitches because he has so limited exposure between college and pro baseball. I think you would have to go back very far (I could be wrong) to see a pitcher handled the same way Morrow is. My point is, I don’t see any historical comp, therefore predicting what Morrow will do is somewhat flawed.
If you’re going to make the very extreme assertion that Brandon Morrow’s case is unprecedented in baseball history, it’s incumbent upon YOU to provide evidence to support that assertion.
Not the other way around.
I always believed that projections were based not only on the individual but on historical comps. What historical comp is there to Morrow?
Just because certain systems use historical comps to generate projections does NOT mean that we’re helpless in the face of having no historical comparisons. This is one of those times where statistical analysis should take a back seat to decent scouting.
This kinda cuts right to the chase….
Really Jeff? Zero?
I’m not the Jeff you’re asking, but yes, pretty much zero.
Brandon Morrow is talented, but he isn’t ready to contribute as a quality major league starter yet.
Anything else is pretty much just wishcasting.
So, basically, wishful thinking.
Your point makes no sense. You’re basically arguing from your conclusion.
Again…what is your evidence to think Morrow can be successful next year? Oh, I forget…you admitted you had none.
I just had a flashback to 1984, when the M’s thought that Ed Vandeberg could be a starter
No, really, they did — see
http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/vandeed01.shtml
This isn’t unprecedented, nor are the M’s the first team to try crap like this. It never works. David Clyde is the most prominant example.
True — and another weird example was when the White Sox, back in 1976, were apparently so hard up for starting pitching that they decided to move Goose Gossage into the starting rotation.
I think that might’ve been the same season where Veeck thought his guys would somehow look “stylish” by playing in SHORTS — a la the rec league softball team from your favorite neighborhood pub!
Or, as the late great John Lennon once said, “strange days indeed”!
I figured someone would bring up David Clyde. And while he is the most glaring historical comp, his situation was different (younger). And that is one example. I will concede if there are other examples and I trust Dave if he says there are. The only one I could think of was the Rangers and Clyde, and he was a HS and younger.
Gwangung. The point isn’t evidence he will succeed, the point is we don’t because of lack of stats and historical comps. I will concede the point to Dave because he knows more about baseball in every aspect then I, and I assume there are other historical comps if he says so. However, please try to understand my point before attacking it. You believe he can’t succeed therefore you say prove to me he can, I say there is no way to prove whether he will fail or succeed, and you ask me to prove to you that he will? How does that make any sense?
Whitey Herzog attests that David Clyde’s failure stemmed from arm injuries due to overuse and alcoholism he later developped. The rush to the majors didn’t help things at all either, especially for a high school kid.
Looking solely at stats doesn’t always give you the whole picture. Especially in cases like this, where the sample size is admittedly smallish.
I suspect that’s why Dave put so much scouting information into his post; observable things about Morrow’s skills that help show that he just isn’t ready to be a major league starter in 2008.
I think from a stamina standpoint alone, it’s pretty much certain he won’t succeed as a starter in 2008. Maybe he’ll have a good month or two or pitch a shutout one game, but I can’t see him holding up into August and September.
“However, if we look at what Brandon Morrow can actually do, it becomes pretty clear that this is a guy who just didn’t possess the skills to pitch in a major league rotation in 2007. If you think a few starts against Double-A quality hitters in Venezuela this winter is enough for him to develop the necessary skills, well, then you have enough faith to toss Mt. Rainier into the sea. ”
First at all I’m from Venezuela and the hitters aren’t Double A quality…
Magglio Ordonez won the batting tittle this year and he played a lot in the winter league; so no one have the right to despise any foreig league.
And second If Mariners Believes in Brandon Morrow’s potential leave them, I guess they know something we don’t. I saw Morrow Pitching here and he have the tools, only needs more control in his pitching command and experience. Do not crucify him yet.
Many people don’t know how the winter leagues helps major league players….
Based on past experience, I would say not.
Our hubris is showing again. Just because bad decisions are made doesn’t mean the Mariners scouting stuff is a pack of incompetants.
It’s not hubris to point out that the Mariners aren’t very good at evaluating major league talent.
They do okay in the minors, largely because of Bob Fontaine, but it doesn’t seem to translate to telling if major league players suck or not.
Meh, you replied before I could point out how stupid my comment was.
However, I think it’s flawed of us to assume that we know what the machinations of the decision making are. Is Bavasi listening to his scouts and coaches, is he disregarding them, or is the decisions on Morrow based on other factors.
Last year, one of the writers, and I think it was Dave, speculated that having Morrow be in the majors now would be detrimental in the future to getting Morrow back in the minors where he belongs. I don’t recall the reasonings, but is what we’re sseing now (Bavasi’s public comments that Morrow is with the club regardless of whether he’s a starter or relief pitcher) a result of that?
My response was more snark than considered response…
But all we can do is make conclusions based on the the facts we have…and realize that there is always missing information. I don’t think the decision (as a whole) has been particularly sharp or consistent–hence the snark.
Besides…my philosophy as a fan is expect the worst and be presently surprised if something good happens.
If you’re going to define pitching success based on this “5 point checklist”, it seems sort of silly to look at the criteria of each (at least in Brandon Morrow’s case) in black and white terms. A sliding scale/grading system would seem more appropriate.
Take “Command your fastball”, for instance. There is more than just command or no command. In Brandon Morrow’s case, I would say he is effectively wild. And with a FB as electric as his, that’s a good thing. He knows it’s gonna be near the strikezone, but not exactly where. Thing is, the hitter knows he’s effectively wild too, and the hitters reacted accordingly all year long. The hitters KNEW the FB was coming, and still couldn’t touch it. If that’s not commanding the fastball, I’m not sure what is. Just because Brandon Morrow doesn’t fit into the one mold you’ve got on the shelf, that doesn’t mean you throw everything out. Taking into account Brandon’s entire repertoire, it looks as though he vastly improved his overall command in the second half of the season. His BB/9 was nearly half of what it was in the first half. His “meaningless” winter ball stats support this as well. Brandon Morrow is getting much better at throwing strikes.
Regarding your second point of changing speeds, since when is a 10+ mph different pitches NOT changing speeds? Roger Clemens has said that 8+ mph of difference is more than enough for him to be successfull, and I don’t know why that wouldn’t apply to Brandon as well. If Morrow can establish a 10 mph difference between his FB and offspeed stuff, he’d be cruisin’.
Brandon Morrow right now, is not a #2 starter. Or a #3 or probably a #4, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t belong in the big leagues. Since when was it a rule that a guy couldn’t make it to the bigs until he was a totally complete player? Taking everything into account, and I mean everything including field-level observation, I do not see how Brandow Morrow is a worse option than some of the other ideas people are throwing around. Edwin Jackson? Really? That guy’s ceiling is a #4 starter. Brandon Morrow’s got much higher upside, and he’s got to get his lumps in at some point. If what I read around here is actually true, that the 2008 season as it stands is a wash, than what is the harm? And wouldn’t the 2009 season be much better served with a Brandon Morrow that has a full season of big league starting under his belt?
To be fair, being quote-unquote effectively wild is a little more effective if you throw 96 to 98 rather than 92 to 94. It’s also more effective if you only have to throw two innings.
I hate it when a manager is high on a player like Morrow. The player always winds up getting charred in the bong.
Morrow’s fastball averaged 95-96mph last year, first of all. Second of all, all we heard last year from hitters and the catchers was that his fastball seemed even faster than it was clocked at, it had a ton of life.
Regarding the number of innings per appearance, I’d argue that Morrow is the type of pitcher who benefits greatly from a structured pitching schedule and ability to establish a rhythm. Even if the “effective wildness” were more effective in short appearances, in longer appearance his overall control would become more refined.
Next time I’m fencing, I’m going to tell the referee that my lunge SEEMED faster than it was, so I should get the touch.
I think it’ll be an awesome new strategy.
Oh, I never thought about it like that, thanks.
I just lost about a 2,000 word response by hitting the backspace key accidentally. I don’t have the time to type it again.
Basic summary – trend analysis is useless, your data doesn’t support your conclusions, Roger Clemens has nothing in common with Brandon Morrow, and you don’t pick rotation candidates by future upside.
First, there are plenty of times in baseball when your eyes can deceive you, and cause you to miss out on what’s really taking place. There are times when you should trust your eyes, or rather those of the players in the game and what they say they saw. Trend analysis is not extremely useful in small sample sizes, but it’s certainly not useless. Combined with other accounts and observations of actual on-field skills in can be helpful. Our prior knowledge of Brandon Morrow isn’t SO small that we should just throw it out the window completely, and to suggest as much is reckless and even pointless.
And to the basic summaries after the one about trend analysis I would add: prove it, Roger Clemens and Brandon Morrow most certainly have things in common, and nobody is advocating using future upside alone in determining a rotation. You use it in addition to many other things, but you use it.
Trend analysis within a season is totally and utterly useless in almost every case. In this case, that’s especially true.
The work’s been done. Google The Book blog and you’ll find it.
The rest of your points are just as wrong. Sorry – it’s true.
Your cookie-cutter approach to pitcher evaluation is exposing a major blind spot in this case, Dave. I think as the 2008 season rolls on, you’ll find yourself rethinking some of the major arguments you made in the original post.
…As I notice you ever so slightly edited your #100 comment.
I’ll take my blind spots and track record over your hopes, dreams, and bad analysis.
Hm. Since I’m not seeing much of pitcher evaluation in your approach, I think Dave is not the one who should be rethinking things. Sorry, but I’m not seeing much more than wishful thinking in your arguments–in-season trend analysis is awfully skimpy evidence to urge doing something that is pretty much unprecedented in pitcher development.
Also…it might be helpful to show the weakness in the cookie cutter approach by citing counter examples and WHY the cookie cutter wasn’t adequate for those counter examples.
Basic Summary – the 5 points in The Checklist are arbitrary, there are exceptions to every rule, we have more than 1 season of Brandon Morrow with which to evaluate him, there are many examples of successful pitchers would would never have passed Dave’s 5 Point Checklist.
“And take my word for it, because I’m not interested in presenting any real evidence and my analytics are totally flawed. But I’m going to keep insisting I’m right over and over until you believe me.”
okdan’s posts are almost making me nostalgic for the days of Corco.
…Almost.
That’s funny, I don’t remember saying that. I do remember graduating 4th grade however, when using a mocking voice was considered a hilarious response to something you didn’t agree with.
Just trying to stir up discussion, that is all. The love fests that go on around these parts get a little old, and I’m bored.
Yikes and wowsers. A 12.5% BBrate in his final 30 innings is an example of improved control and being effectively wild? I think all his final 30 innings prove is Dave’s counter argument. In season “trends” are meaningless. Basically, Morrow’s true command isn’t as bad as 9.3 BB/9 (pre all-star rate) and his 4.93 BB/9 in the second half was the result of the mean tugging on his counting stats rather than strides in his command. Lets face it, his command stunk no matter how you sliced his season. It stunk in college and it still stinks.
I have no idea what this means. When considering that he throws a fastball, splitter, and split finger it’s apparent his command improved? As an argument, it’s lacking….
It’s clear Brandon Morrow has no problems bowling over minor league level competition. How is he going to adapt his game to major league hitters unless he pitches against them? He can mow down AA/AAA hitters on his FB alone, and clearly a good portion of MLB hitters the first time through the line up. He needs to learn how to do it against Major League hitters, wouldn’t you agree?
As for the sentence of mine, I have no idea what it means either, ha. I appear to have changed thoughts mid-sentence in that case.
Oh, cool, it’s time to beat the “USSM groupthink” dead horse some more.
Always a good way to relieve boredom.
Given that he’s spent so little time in the minors as a starter, it is NOT clear.
Are you sure you’re thinking this through?
THis is crap.
I expect better.
Try again. And give an honest attempt next time, instead of this half assed effort. Its obvious you ARENT’ thinking this through.
That seems more brutal than necessary.
I do think the discussion could be moved forward with a list of successful pitchers potentially fitting this assertion though….
Interesting to note, it seems that the addition of a decent change-up would give Morrow all the weapons he needs (change speeds, tails away from LH, firms up unpredictability) by Dave’s ‘5 Skills’ Theory – 4 out of 5, anyway. How long does it take to add that, assuming he can? I don’t suppose there’s any hope he could have one by the ASB?
118,
Part of my hopes for Brandon is that he’s improved since the beginning and end of 2007 with his work since. But coming up with a changeup in that short span of time is not likely. Throwing a pitch itself is fairly easy once you know how to hold the ball. The trick is getting the pitch to do what you want. I can throw a fastball, slider, changeup, curve, splitfinger, knucklball, and screwball… but I can’t throw any of them for decent velocity / movement nor can I throw them for strikes and /or put them where I want to (command them).
If Morrow were to add a changeup it would probably take an entire season training his body to throw it the way he wants to.
#106:
And those examples would be??