Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract

DMZ · December 31, 2007 at 1:31 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

I joked that Raul’s comments to the Seattle Times for that Monahan refutation earned him his next deal — and maybe it did! His contract is dangerously close to coming to an end after this season, and the team is probably already talking to him about returning.

So — leave a comment with your guess. Include:
1. Years
2. Contract value (salary only)
3. Date the extension will be officially announced by the Mariners (press release or press conference, either way)

Last one was a 2y, $11m contract announced in March of 06, the last year of his previous deal.

Winner gets a lovely prize, all three answers required to be eligible.


143 Responses to “Prediction contest: Ibanez’s new contract”

  1. Mr. November on January 1st, 2008 5:43 pm

    2 Years/10.5 million/March 31

  2. HamNasty on January 1st, 2008 5:54 pm

    2 years and option for 3. 16Mil for 2, 10mil 3rd year. July 27th so they can ruin my birthday.

  3. mariners23 on January 1st, 2008 6:25 pm

    2 years/16 million/March 3

  4. Bat9th on January 1st, 2008 6:26 pm

    2 years, 18 mil, August 19th

  5. placid on January 1st, 2008 6:34 pm

    I predict the Seattle Mariners will not offer Raul Ibanez a contract extension in the likely event that he maintains his current Type A status in the Elias rankings.

    Over the past four seasons, Ibanez has performed beyond expectations while being a model citizen on and off the field. Ibanez deserves to be rewarded with a good contract.

    However, the Seattle Mariners should let another team offer that fat contract.

    The Mariners have no guarantee that Ibanez, who turns 36 in June, will continue to perform at his recent levels.

    Ibanez currently ranks ninth among the 23 American League outfielders, firstbasemen and designated hitters with the Type A status in the Elias rankings.

    If Ibanez maintains the Type A status at the end of the 2008 season, the Mariners can offer Ibanez arbitration without offering him a contract extension.

    If Ibanez accepts arbitration, the Mariners can get him back for one year at a decent price.

    If Ibanez declines arbitration and signs with another club, the Mariners should receive a first-round and sandwich draft pick as compensation.

    Those two high draft picks could be worth more than Raul Ibanez at ages 37 and 38.

    The old adage says it’s better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.

    Seattle fans should always revere Ibanez, but from a purely business standpoint the Mariners might be better off by letting Ibanez walk.

    I might change my mind if Ibanez loses his Type A status or if Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien and other young outfielders fail to develop.

  6. DMZ on January 1st, 2008 7:49 pm

    Sooo that’s an argument that no extension will be announced next season.

  7. C. Cheetah on January 1st, 2008 8:32 pm

    Ohh, this will be Bavasi’s greatest moment ;)…
    2 years plus an option year
    $14 million, with $6 million option year plus loys of incentives
    February 24th, 2008

  8. Evan on January 1st, 2008 9:29 pm

    1. 2 Years
    2. $13.6 million
    3. March 18, 2008

  9. Pete Livengood on January 1st, 2008 9:46 pm

    Annnnd, placid gets the Most Likely to Become Steve Kelley Award…..

  10. heyoka on January 1st, 2008 9:47 pm

    2/22 on 4/15

  11. mark s. on January 1st, 2008 10:20 pm

    1. 2 years
    2. 21 =$10 and $9 + $2 bonus, another $3 in incentive.
    3. March 7th, (Ruining my birthday)

  12. niterunner on January 1st, 2008 10:22 pm

    My tiebreaker pick is that placid is wrong.

  13. Pete Livengood on January 1st, 2008 10:32 pm

    Placid is wrong, but he’s right.

    Now, if he could only write paragraphs of more than one sentence….

  14. lokiforever on January 1st, 2008 11:39 pm

    June 20th, 2008
    $18 Million plus $4 million incentives
    2 Years
    plus option year

  15. hub on January 1st, 2008 11:41 pm

    2 years
    16 million
    Valentine’s Day

  16. southpaw14 on January 2nd, 2008 12:18 am

    3 years. $25 million. Februrary 28

  17. Wishhiker on January 2nd, 2008 2:34 am

    3/19.5 6/29/08

  18. mr.smartypants on January 2nd, 2008 4:40 am

    going out on a limb here:
    traded to NL contender (STL? LAD?) in late July for crappy minor leaguers. Extended by that team for 1 year, 8 million.

  19. mr.smartypants on January 2nd, 2008 4:41 am

    ooh a specific date: July 24th.

  20. SDRE on January 2nd, 2008 10:55 am

    2 year 15 mil

    August 15th

  21. smb on January 2nd, 2008 11:18 am

    Southpaw, I hope you are wrong…that announcement on that day would totally ruin my birthday.

    My guess…3 yrs, 22 mil, announced March 2

  22. stoyboy on January 2nd, 2008 11:21 am

    2 years: 2008, 8 mil and 2009 club option for 8.25 mil= 16.25 mil announced on Feb 4th.

  23. dlb on January 2nd, 2008 11:38 am

    2 years
    1 option year that is mutual with some absurdly high buyout clause
    $14m per year
    Announced by March 22nd.

    They want to make sure this isn’t a distraction going into the year. You do the math with the performances and payments to Silva, Washburn, Sexson, and Vidro and $14m/year looks like a bargain in their blurry, blood shot eyes.

  24. wallywwu on January 2nd, 2008 12:23 pm

    1 year
    7.5 million
    April 2nd

  25. Swungonandbelted on January 2nd, 2008 12:35 pm

    2 years $11.5 million with a team option for a third at $6 million that will automatically vest with 400 plate appearances in 2008/2009 each.

    Announced May 1.

  26. shortbus on January 2nd, 2008 12:55 pm

    OT news…[deleted, OT]

  27. Thoan on January 2nd, 2008 1:07 pm

    2 years
    17.75 Million (including bonus, excluding buyouts)
    Announced February 26

  28. johndango on January 2nd, 2008 1:54 pm

    #12 – “I know it’s only a dream, but I guess I’m the guy who bids $1 on The Price Is Right.”

    I’m the guy that bids $2.

    I say:

    1. 1 year
    2. 13 Mil.
    3. He turns it down.

  29. xxtinynickxx on January 2nd, 2008 2:23 pm

    2 years 8 million with 2 million in incentives and yes he will take it

  30. Dave in Palo Alto on January 2nd, 2008 2:27 pm

    3 yrs
    $36 mill and an official Shane Monahan coffee mug
    June 12

  31. G-Bo on January 2nd, 2008 3:21 pm

    2 yrs
    $20.5 million
    Mutual option for a 3rd year at $12 Mill
    April 15

    And his recipe for snickerdoodles makes it into the team cookbook.

  32. galaxieboi on January 2nd, 2008 5:10 pm

    3 yrs
    $36 mill

    2 years
    17.75 Million

    2 yrs, 23 million, with an option for a 3rd year at 12 million (500k buyout).

    Man, if Raul gets anything close to what some of you are predicting I’m going to swear off the M’s.

    Derek, do you have a prediction?

  33. DMZ on January 2nd, 2008 5:14 pm

    I’m waiting for comments to run.

  34. kentroyals5 on January 2nd, 2008 10:06 pm

    2 years
    25 mil
    May 26th, 1pm

  35. Grizz on January 3rd, 2008 2:41 am

    1 Year
    $11 million + mutual option
    Feb. 22

    A nonpublicized part of the deal is that Raul agrees to move to DH or 1B as soon as either Vidro or Sexson are kicked to the curb.

  36. niterunner on January 3rd, 2008 8:06 am

    Exactly Grizz. Ibanez knows that he is a defensive liability.

    The relative production per dollar in your deal is better than the production vs contract for Vidro or Sexson.

  37. schmicky on January 3rd, 2008 5:46 pm

    One year and one option year w/buy out clause
    10 million/1.28million buyout
    April 02

  38. Pro Yankee Hater on January 3rd, 2008 10:08 pm

    2 years for $12.5 million total
    Signed March 27th

  39. badmutha on January 4th, 2008 10:28 am

    This is wishful thinking but the Mariners dont resign him and package him and Sexson to the Giants or Yankees for a pitcher and some prospects. Balentin takes over in LF, Clement to 1b until we figure out what to do with Vidro. The trade will be announced on Valentines Day. 🙂

  40. badmutha on January 4th, 2008 10:42 am

    That said the Mariners wont do the above so they’ll give Ibanez a huge contract and trade Balentin for another mediocre pitcher. I agree that it will be somthing like 10 mill a year but somebody already has that so i’ll go with the under of 29 million with an option, but dont forget the signing bonus of 2.5 million.

    3 years 29 million
    Club option 4th year for 8.5 million.
    Signing bonus 2.5 million
    Grand total 40 million
    This time the day before Valentines Day, Feb. 13.

  41. southbaymariner on January 4th, 2008 4:18 pm

    No new deal.

    Imo, the Mariners are starting to realize (finally) that they need to stop playing geezers and go with more youth.

  42. John D. on January 5th, 2008 12:59 pm

    Re: Placid’s (# 105) “The old adage says it’s better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.”

    [This may sound picky.]It’s not an old adage. It’s an opinion once expressed by Branch Rickey; and not everyone agrees with him.
    Some think that you should squeeze one more year out of the guy before you trade him.

  43. Jeff Nye on January 5th, 2008 1:11 pm

    Those people are wrong.

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