Eighteen days

DMZ · January 8, 2008 at 10:00 am · Filed Under Mariners 

As rumors of a horrible, horrible Bedard deal swirl.


96 Responses to “Eighteen days”

  1. Bender on January 8th, 2008 12:29 pm

    I really don’t see a way bavasi doesn’t trade Jones. Jones is the one valuable prospect that teams really want, and bavasi just doesn’t value players the way we do. To him, and to the best of his knowledge, this is a good deal. That’s just the reality of the situation.

  2. bakomariner on January 8th, 2008 12:32 pm

    bender is right, and that’s the problem…Bavasi THINKS he is doing a good job…just like he probably thought trading for Vidro and Ramirez last year was a good thing too…i don’t want to question his intelligence, but my GOD, these moves make me want to say he’s a full-blown idiot…is he?

  3. johndango on January 8th, 2008 12:32 pm

    #15- I Agree. I would not even trade just Jones for Bedard. Jones is a potential all start who could help us for years an years… where as pitchers… well, they’re just a crap shoot.

  4. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 12:33 pm

    Jones should have more net value than Bedard over the next two years, unless Bedard can keep putting up 3.13 xFIP. Before 2007 Bedard was a #2 kind of starter. He is young, so it’s possible he took the leap, or it could be he put together his career year. Lets assume Jones costs $500k, and Bedard $10 million. If Jones is a league average player the next two years, Bedard would need to be a 4-5 win player each year to break even from a contract point of view, JUST for those two years. If Jones is a 1 WAR player, Bedard would still need to be a 3-4 win pitcher. I know his 2007 was stellar, but projecting him on just that is not smart. I’d call him a 3 win pitcher going forward (quick and dirty look using xFIP w/ Park factor. What’s the chances that Jones is only 1 WAR? My point isn’t to be exact, it’s that even if Jones is sub average, Bedard would need to be top 10 pitcher both years to break even for just those two years. Add in the lost time we could have had Jones and Bedard would need to be the 2007 Bedard both years to even come close, and even then it might end up being a poor trade.

  5. scraps on January 8th, 2008 12:35 pm

    Jones is the one valuable prospect that teams really want

    I am sure that there are several smart teams out there that would salivate over Triunfel.

  6. mcfly on January 8th, 2008 12:35 pm

    is this what it is like to be a Pirates or Royals or Devil Rays fan? I really don’t know what to feel anymore, whether I even want to care. Sucks, really does. I mean, in theory, we win it all in 08, it makes it all better, we forget… but when we don’t? what salve will make this one stop itching?

  7. ntran on January 8th, 2008 12:37 pm

    sensing general pessimism throughout most of the comments, but i don’t think this deal is as bad as everyone makes it out to be…
    living in baltimore the last few years, i’ve seen a lot of bedard. don’t forget, he was a cy young candidate for most of the year. jones has the chance to be a superstar, but bedard is already a superstar. he just plays in a place that doesn’t get a lot of press and on a crappy team. plus, i have the general feeling that you can never have too many pitchers. as long as they can keep morrow and triunfel, i’m okay with the deal. that is, if they can sign morrow to a long term deal…

  8. mcfly on January 8th, 2008 12:38 pm

    i reckon i just would feel sick about Triunfel. that one seems just senseless. adam jones, i never thought we’d see as a regular in Seattle, and Sherril is always something that can be turned into a profit… it is just the complete disregard of Triunfel as a potential asset.

  9. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 12:39 pm

    $10 mil is based on it being his 5th and 6th years and arbitration. It could well be less or it could be more. My point is, it’d take a lot to go wrong w/ Jones or a lot to go right with Bedard to make a Jones for Bedard trade a good one.

  10. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 12:40 pm

    Triunfel is also a lot riskier than Jones. If we were a 90 win team looking to become one of the elite teams in the AL, trading Triunfel to fill a hole might not be so bad. Jones doesn’t make sense, since we’d need him to win now. We’re not a 90 win team, so we shouldn’t even be thinking about trading cheap talent for a couple wins (if that).

  11. Bender on January 8th, 2008 12:43 pm

    I am sure that there are several smart teams out there that would salivate over Triunfel.

    No one is going to offer us someone bavasi sees as a big name or a difference maker for Triunfel. Just the fact that so many other teams want Jones should alert him to Jones’ true value, but, alas, he just doesn’t see it like that.

  12. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 12:43 pm

    #48, I suspect if the M’s offered those players AND offered a 7/154+ mil contract that Santana might waive his clause. At some point a lefty starter is going to come here and look like the second coming of Cy Young. Santana may or may not realize how much Safeco would help him, but still, waive the $$$ and I bet he might listen.

  13. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 12:47 pm

    My biggest fear is to have a repeat of the HoRam trade. We were going after Hudson, this time it’s Bedard. We dangled our pieces, and ended up with HoRam, this time it could be Cabrera. I know we won’t trade Jones for Daniel Cabrera, but I could see a last minute freak out that sends Clement, Sherill, and Tuiasosopo or something like that for Cabrera. Cabrera > HoRam, but still.

  14. galaxieboi on January 8th, 2008 12:52 pm

    Chris- While I think we all agree with what you’re saying about the Bedard vs. Jones in terms of salary and wins (I know I do), it’s fairly obvious the M’s feel as though they’re only a few wins away from stealing the division from the Angels. Now, if you believe the M’s really are an 88 win team right now than adding 3-4 wins with Bedard (who’d take HoRam’s spot after Silva took Weaver’s spot) they’re a -tada!- 92+ win team. I can totally see where the M’s are coming from with all this. I don’t agree at all, but it’s easy to see.

  15. scraps on January 8th, 2008 1:06 pm

    Bedard is not a superstar.

  16. msb on January 8th, 2008 1:08 pm

    I suspect if the M’s offered those players AND offered a 7/154+ mil contract that Santana might waive his clause.

    why should Santana care who the Twins get for him? What he cares about is winning, money & being relatively close to home.

  17. bakomariner on January 8th, 2008 1:08 pm

    bedard would help for two years and probably leave in FA when his contract is up…jones would be a centerpiece of our offense and defense for a decade, presumably…jones for anyone…bad, bad, bad…

  18. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 1:15 pm

    why should Santana care who the Twins get for him? What he cares about is winning, money & being relatively close to home.

    He wouldn’t, but the Twins would. I was saying, if we offer what he wants, I think it increases the odds substantially that he agrees to the trade.

  19. ntran on January 8th, 2008 1:15 pm

    Bedard is top 5-10 pitcher in the AL and he’s relatively young. I do agree that if he leaves after 2 years, it’s a bad deal. But a front line of Bedard and Felix makes your 3,4,5 starters look much better.

  20. scraps on January 8th, 2008 1:21 pm

    “Relatively young”: Bedard will be 29 next year. There’s no reason to think he’s going to get substantially better than he is. And he’s good. But he’s not great. He’s not dominant. And he’s not going to be. He’d be a good trade pickup, obviously, at the right price. Just as obviously, the price being reportedly discussed is ridiculous.

  21. C. Cheetah on January 8th, 2008 1:26 pm

    While any player could be swayed by money, at least through his agent, Santana seems to be more interested in being close to home and WINNING. Having to deal Jones to get Santana would not send the message to Santana that the M’s are serious about WINNING anytime soon.

  22. xxtinynickxx on January 8th, 2008 1:30 pm

    I don’t see anything wrong with this trade except Tuiasosopo, Jones is an OF and could be elite but the word here to pay attention to is “could”. There are a ton of OF’s out there that probably will put up the same numbers as Jones will for the next two seasons. For example Correy Patterson. Its not gonna kill the team to pick up a pitcher that is proven to win and has been better each season. Because SP is so rare and hard to pick up whats wrong with this trade not to much I’d just like to see Tuiasosopo and develop.

  23. bakomariner on January 8th, 2008 1:36 pm

    72- you’d rather have Tui stick around than Jones? wow…you drinking the bavasi kool-aide? that’s crazy…

  24. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 1:37 pm

    #72, Jones could be league average for the rest of his tenure, and it’d still be a bad deal.

    Because SP is so rare and hard to pick up whats wrong with this trade not to much I’d just like to see Tuiasosopo and develop.

    Because SP isn’t so rare, and if Tuiasosopo is you’re hang, ummmmmmmmmm, yeah.

  25. ntran on January 8th, 2008 1:41 pm

    Even if bedard was as good as he was last year, he was a top 5 pitcher last year. How is he not dominant? 221 Ks in 182 IPs. Plus he had absurdly dominant stretch through the middle of last year. My point was that a lot of Mariners fans don’t know how good he is playing in Baltimore for a bad team.

  26. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 1:44 pm

    #75, that’s the thing, he was that good ONLY last year. I’m curious what PECOTA and ZIPS says, but doing a Marcels has him pegged around 4.00-4.25, or a #2 starter. I think he does better than that, but I think it’s craziness to expect another season w/ an ERA under 3.50 and K/9 over 10. I think it’s definitely possible, but smart teams don’t go forward under than impression.

  27. bakomariner on January 8th, 2008 1:45 pm

    75- Bedard would be the Ms #2 starter…you don’t trade a kid that has been touted as “special” by tons of scouts for a #2 starter that will probably leave town in two years…

  28. ntran on January 8th, 2008 1:52 pm

    While Bedard was good only last year, how many years has Jones been good? Plus, Bedard’s numbers are getting better, not worse. How can he be a #2 when his numbers were up there with Sabathia and Santana. You’re looking at #1a and #1b starters.

    Plus 76, how can you say that SP isn’t so rare. Look at the M’s track record of trying to find pitching. You say even if Jones was average CF the rest of his career, you wouldn’t do the trade. If that was the case, I’d take that any day of the week.

  29. msb on January 8th, 2008 1:52 pm

    check out Dave’s new post “Adam Jones and Erik Bedard, Quantified”

  30. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 1:54 pm

    Also, playing for a bad team has nothing to do with how good Bedard is. I think Bedard is improved, but I don’t think anyone should expect him to put up numbers quite that good again. The point is Jones doesn’t even have to be as good as scouts think for it to be a bad deal, and Bedard doesn’t even need to regress! And It’s likely both will end up at least part way toward those points, an above average-good position player who’se dirt cheap, and a good #2, possibly ace, for a couple of years. Jones for Bedard is only a 1-2 win improvement, if that. I’d be happier trading Clement and whoever for another Silva, Washburn, Batista caliber (I know they’re not equal, but they’re all close to averageish) pitcher. I think the upgrade from HoRam to a 1.5-2 WAR pitcher is similar to HoRam to Bedard less Jones.

  31. xxtinynickxx on January 8th, 2008 1:59 pm

    I should have said decent SP is rare. Or maybe decent SP that will come to Seattle is rare. Is it realistic to expect SP that are above average even stars to come and play for the Seattle Mariners? Of course not. Seattle is still seen as a small market and bad team. Look what last year brought. Seattle Mariners had to sign Jeff Weaver because either Seattle did not want to put up the money or the players took deals with teams that were seen as better. So to think that the Mariners do not have to over pay for pitching to come to the Seattle market is absurd, and to think that not getting a pitcher like a Bedard in a deal that would make the Mariners better because Adam Jones may have a season where he is average or above average for an OF, is silly. Jones maybe a star in the future. Maybe he ends up a bust. No one will know tell it happens. It would be nice to just contend next season rather then playing the waiting game again. This deal does that.

  32. pensive on January 8th, 2008 2:01 pm

    Going out on limb here, but I believe Bavasi does know value of M’s prospects. This could be just a bluff to acquire another on the radar.

    History suggests differently, but most these mid high level prospects are His babies and Fontaine. Not convinced he will sacrifice them.

    One may hope anyway.

    DMZ, Even though dollars are tight, You deserve a Beer for time and effort. Please include link.

  33. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 2:13 pm

    #80, first I think Jones is a safer bet THAN Bedard, because Bedard is a pitcher, and Jones is a whole lot closer to being an average OF than I think you’re giving him credit for. Also, I don’t think ANYBODY thinks Seattle is a small Market team, although people may very well think we’re a bad team. I also think the next couple years will dispel the starters (or even decent starters, really) are rare myth.

  34. xxtinynickxx on January 8th, 2008 2:37 pm

    #83 I agree and disagree with you about the small market outlook. I still many that see Seattle as a small market even though anyone that comes here knows better. I am refering more to the “Seattle Sterotype” that the press has put on our city by either not talking about Seattle or strange pop culture crap. You may notice that even when the Seahawks are winning or when the Mariners were winning. Were not the sexy city like Chitown or New York or LA and we do not have that long history like St. Louis. There is still the grunge/coffee stigma to, and of course the rain. So with all this I honestly think people see Seattle still small market, and that everyone is trying to get rather then in. On a funny side note, my sister came from Chicago a few years back and she had never been here. When she came the first thing she wanted to see was the “Starbucks Tower”. Anyone else wondering what the “Starbucks Tower” is? Ya it’s the spaceneedle. You can also thank movies for giving that image as well. (Austin Powers movie refrence by the way)

  35. neil5611 on January 8th, 2008 4:16 pm

    Considering the amount of can’t miss prospects that do miss I say go after pitching AS LONG as we don’t give up pitching.
    The current staff burns out the bull pen… again.

  36. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 4:48 pm

    #85, Pitching prospects miss more than hitting prospects.

  37. neil5611 on January 8th, 2008 4:59 pm

    Good point Chris.
    I guess I still have faith in Morrow and don’t want to lose Sherrill.

  38. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 5:06 pm

    Bedard’s numbers have improved dramatically each of the past three years pitching in a division that has had improved offensively each of the past three years. I’m not predicting further improvement, but substantial drop off considering change of divisions and ballparks seems highly unlikely.

    The value is relative, playing in Safeco and the AL West doesn’t make him better, even if his ERA may or may not be prettier. Also his K #’s jumped big this year, you SHOULD expect regression to the mean, otherwise you’ll fail more often than not. For something K%, something like Marcels (5/4/3 for last 3 years) is probably best, since K rates are very stable year to year. If I use K/9, even though K% is better, K/9 is easier, I get 9.45, which is something like a .50 run difference in ERA, or a full win.

    I stated it in the last post, but in addition to the win calculations, you have to think about the positive impact this would have on Felix and the rest of the rotation — you in essence would be adding another stopper to the rotation, which certainly would have been helpful during last year’s swoon.

    I don’t get that, it does improve the team, replacing HoRam w/ Bedard, but how does it improve Felix?

    And I do think that adding Bedard in exchange for prospects puts the M’s in position to compete in the AL West or wild card in 2008, which bolster’s the teams overall ability to attract and retain other free agents and also establishes a culture of winning throughout the system.

    I disagree, I think Bedard for Jones is a 1, maybe 2 win improvement if things break right, which I don’t think makes a hill of beans difference in people wanting to sign here. Free agents are overrated anyway, and I think the whole “attractive to Free Agents” things is overstated as well.

    And general thinking seems to be that if Bedard goes, so does Roberts. Toss in Lopez and another prospect for Roberts by all means — that guy at the top of the lineup next to Ichiro would be unstoppable.

    I might do that, if we were a little closer, but we’d still need a RF or LF. I also would be careful about giving up on Lopez yet. It depends too, AJ for Roberts AND Bedard might not be so bad, especially if we can include Lopez for an OF.

    Lastly, if you look at the coaching staff that the M’s have assembled, it’s not exactly a bunch of progressive thinking coaches that are good with young kids — we have an AARP crew that has deep baseball knowledge, but probably won’t be that great at helping our younger players along.

    That’s a fixable problem, tell McLaren etc, that it’s play the kids or get new jobs. Our coaching is hardly untouchable, is it?

    Grab Bedard, make a run at things this year and then if it doesn’t work out Bavasi will be gone and we’ll have a GM who would know how to sell some vets and restock with prospects.

    If it doesn’t work, we’ve blew our chance for ’09, IMO.

    And shame on all of you threatening to become A’s fans — that is the most disheartening thing i’ve ever read.

    That I’ll agree with! I’m too much of an M’s fanboy, bad trades or not.

  39. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 5:07 pm

    crap, wrong thread. Please delete #88, and this one that’s an OK thing to ask.

  40. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 5:10 pm

    #87, that’s what makes you want that can’t miss young pitcher more, it’s something that’s harder to project. We had one a couple years ago though 🙂 He’s with the team still. And I think he’s a big wild card in how well we do in 2008.

  41. neil5611 on January 8th, 2008 5:37 pm

    We clearly need starting pitching as the current crop has one young potential #1 and a crew of #3-#4-#5’s.
    Bedard is instantly a legitimate #1-#2 based on his current performance.
    Part of the goal with young talent is to trade into quality starting pitching-see the Yankees.
    We don’t pull the trigger we keep some maybe’s.
    Again I would not include pitching in the deal however I believe hitting is easier to find-see Jose Guillen.
    By the way any takers for Vidro, ha ha.

  42. Chris Miller on January 8th, 2008 5:44 pm


    Why does everyone think pitching is sooooo much more important or hard to find, or shouldn’t be traded. Just because Morrow throws a ball, doesn’t make him a MLB caliber starter, in fact that’s less certain than AJ being MLB caliber, so why would you NOT include him because of that? Also, say getting JP Howell for a mid level prospect would be as big of an improvement as trading Jones for Bedard, because you don’t lose Jones. It makes no sense. Comparing to the Yankees, who should be winning 100+ games every freaking year btw, and when nobody in the world can spend like them, isn’t a good comp. They’re also closer (like almost a given) to the playoffs than us. Also, Felix is a #1 starter now, not potentially, he is, now.

  43. neil5611 on January 8th, 2008 5:56 pm

    Sorry Chris I don’t agree.
    In Morrow you have a young player that at worst has taken Soriano’s place after Bavasi made the trade heard round the world-HoRam anyone?
    This team has some minor league depth at catcher and outfield.
    Trade Jones, get Bedard.
    Also a proven lefty is a big plus at home.
    And good pitching is more important than hitting.
    Of course good defense helps…

  44. SpokaneMsFan on January 8th, 2008 7:08 pm

    So signing Miguel Cairo doesn’t really impact much and we can still say 18 days right?

  45. Grayfox on January 8th, 2008 7:11 pm

    I hope we can still add days to our 18 day stretch, i dont think we got rid of anyone for Cairo.

  46. David* on January 8th, 2008 10:24 pm

    Hey at least we’re not going after Eddie Guardado. Oh Texas, will you never learn?

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