No news is good news

DMZ · January 10, 2008 at 11:02 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Day twenty passes. The M’s sign Chris Reitsma to a minor league deal. Yes, that Chris Reitsma. But a minor league deal is not a bad deal, and the streak continues.


135 Responses to “No news is good news”

  1. Alaskan on January 11th, 2008 2:27 pm

    91, bubblegumcrisis,
    Follow the link under Mariner blogs at left, labeled “Mariner Minors”. They keep very good track of the winter leagues, updated weekly.

  2. Wishhiker on January 11th, 2008 2:27 pm

    Reed would almost certainly do better than Balentin:

    Or did you mean Balentien?

  3. crazyray7391 on January 11th, 2008 2:30 pm

    Has there been any recent talk of the Mariners looking at Bartolo Colon? Last I heard, they didn’t want to sign him for just a year. Is it just me or does that seem like a mistake? I don’t remember a year when Colon was healthy and had a bad year. Why wouldn’t we look at signing him, hold on to Morrow, Jones, Sherrill ect. and see how Colon can hold up?

    #99 That’s awesome!!

  4. westfried on January 11th, 2008 2:32 pm

    Regarding the Boston trade…

    Boston can “lose” a trade based on player value (ie, giving more than they got), but still “win” based on outcome (ie, Beckett was the push they needed to win the WS).

    Boston is a fantastic franchise, and is (now) perenially close to the playoffs. For them, trading an uber-prospect-stud may make sense, if the return will give them a great shot at the title.

    For the Mariners, I think we can all agree that Bedard, even if pitches like Cy Young, will not push them to the next level. Thus, they lose on talent and lose on outcome. (And that’s not counting chance of injury, short track record, Bedard looking worse because his defense is now Raul and LuGo, etc.)

    The real crime here, I think, is that the Mariners believe they were an 88-win team last year, and that adding Bedard is the final piece to the puzzle.

    And even that’s not counting that the “88-win” team lost its 3rd best hitter in Guillen, and would also be losing their ace lefty reliever. Thus making them, prima facie, worse than last year.

    If you think that this is your window, and 2 years of Bedard may push you over the top, then it might be worth the moon (6 years of Jones, 6 years of Triunfel, Sherril, etc.) The Marlins have won 2 championships this way.

    Given that this is NOT the window, and the Mariners are NOT close, and the talent you give up is quite steep, then there is really no way to define the proposed Bedard trades as “good”.

  5. gwangung on January 11th, 2008 2:37 pm

    The rumor on Bartolo Colon is that his arm woes are worse than he let on last year—not a good pickup for ANYONE.

  6. astroboy on January 11th, 2008 2:41 pm

    Yay for poor typing skills. Go team me.

    AAA numbers I found:

    139 H, 87 1B, 24 2B, 4 3B, 24 HR, 54 BB, 105 SO

    169 H, 114 1B, 37 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 47 BB, 73 SO

    I think I shall retract my previous statement of Reed’s superior offense.

  7. crazyray7391 on January 11th, 2008 2:44 pm


    Now that you mention it, I do remember reading that he can’t get his fastball above 90mph so maybe he’s not really an answer. On the other hand, could he possibly be worse than HoRam?

  8. astroboy on January 11th, 2008 2:59 pm

    If Baltimore wants a CF so bad, I wish there was a way to con them into taking Morrow and Reed instead of Jones…

  9. Graham on January 11th, 2008 3:07 pm

    Do you really believe such a threshold exists?

    The threshold here is a reasonable projection of what the Angels will do. If you can catch them, go for it, but if you look at the gap and say that we’d have to get lucky to match their record, or they have to slip up… that’s the point at which gambling on 2008 gets a bit futile.

  10. musicman on January 11th, 2008 3:19 pm

    I think it is appropriate to sort out our list of the variables that have to go right for the M’s to contend with and without this trade happening. Since I’m finding myself on the fence over this one, seeing the “what if’s” side by side was pretty interesting. For the sake of argument, in each scenario Jones and Bedard will come as advertised. I’ll also include a shopping list of parts I see as needs for each.

    Please note that I am only leaving out the value of the prospects to address the “how close are we to competing” issue.

    option #1- We keep Jones and company:

    Felix could break out and play the majority of the season in the dominant fashion he flashed last season.

    Take your pick of the rest of our rotation would have to step up and have a career year.

    The back end of our rotation would have to preform above or at replacement value at worst.

    Big Sexy would have to shake off last season’s horrorfest, and put up some decent #’s, .260 with 35 HR’s seems possible

    Raul would have to stay healthy, and play like he did in the second half.

    Yuni and Lopez would have to each take a step up in their progression.

    Our manager couldn’t give any games away.

    Shopping list: A LH DH not named turbo, take a couple fliers on Spring invites to compete with in housers for the 5th spot in rotation.

    The least probable things to happen are with the starting rotation, and Raul performing in my mind.

    Option #2- we trade the farm for Bedard:

    Starting pitching is immidiately taken care of for the season (barring unforseen injuries of course.)

    We still need Big Sexy to earn his name back.

    We still need Raul not to suck.

    Yuni and Lopez have to fix their mental errors.

    Our manager still can’t give games away, but is less likely to make terible and unthinkable bullpen moves in that he’s given less opportunity with better starting pitchers (Although I’m sure he’ll find a way to make throw things at the TV).

    Shopping list is now: LH DH not named turbo (what do you all think about Gonzo as DH? If Barry’s not in jail that could be fun too), Corner outfielder to replace Mr. Jones (preferably with +defense, I like the idea of Shannon Stewart, but even J Reed would play great D)

    Provided we can pick up either a DH with some power, or a decent OF, the least likely thing to go right is now just Raul not sucking.

    So I would argue that this deal puts us closer to a run at the post season, but with the right aquisitions to go along with it gives us more than a punchers chance.

    One favor, instead of blasting me for selling the future, lets talk about who we could aquire to fill the holes, and then discuss whether or not the total package we would field in 08 would be worth it.

  11. gwangung on January 11th, 2008 3:36 pm

    One favor, instead of blasting me for selling the future, lets talk about who we could aquire to fill the holes, and then discuss whether or not the total package we would field in 08 would be worth it.

    I dunno. Given that the major weakness of the deal is BECAUSE it sells the future (and that you start having to plug holes you don;t have the material for because of it) I think you need more plusses in favor of it.

  12. crazyray7391 on January 11th, 2008 3:40 pm

    This is one of the reasons that I backed off of wanting to make this trade. We waited to long and now I’m not sure if we CAN find the pieces to make it work if we make a deal. We’d need an outfielder that could produce better than JR, and a left handed setup man. I don’t know if you can find one that would be as productive as Sherrill. As for a DH, couldn’t we use Vidro and Clement there for the season? Now that Clements name has been taken out of the trade rumors, isn’t this the most likely spot for him in the near future?

  13. musicman on January 11th, 2008 3:44 pm

    So you’re not arguing that if we just go free agent and sign Shannon Stewart to play LF, move Raul to RF, and pick up Gonzo for DH along with fixing our starting pitching we don’t have a chance this coming year? That was my point…

    Now, whether that chance is worth shipping out jones is where I think your going. I’m more inclined to inquire as to what is thought of our ’08 chances, with additions before I decide if that is worth control of Jones for years to come.

  14. Graham on January 11th, 2008 3:46 pm

    As for a DH, couldn’t we use Vidro and Clement there for the season?

    Clement needs to be a catcher for him to have any real value, and the only way for him to do that is to get more reps in AAA. He shouldn’t be in the bigs, and he definitely shouldn’t be DH’ing.

  15. Graham on January 11th, 2008 3:46 pm

    So you’re not arguing that if we just go free agent and sign Shannon Stewart to play LF, move Raul to RF, and pick up Gonzo for DH along with fixing our starting pitching we don’t have a chance this coming year?

    We wouldn’t have much chance, no.

  16. crazyray7391 on January 11th, 2008 3:47 pm

    Stuart in left sounds good, but what do we do to replace Sherrill? Is there anybody out there that could step in?

  17. et_blankenship on January 11th, 2008 3:53 pm


    Does Sherrill’s replacement have to built like an old Dutch woman? If so then probably not. Otherwise . . . probably not.

  18. crazyray7391 on January 11th, 2008 3:55 pm

    Yeah, I don’t know if you could find anybody else in the league with allegator arms like that. But I WAS talking about his effectiveness. A hard throwing left handed setup man is a great thing to have.

  19. et_blankenship on January 11th, 2008 4:05 pm

    What about Jeremy Affeldt . . . and why on earth is he still unsigned? Money?

  20. terry on January 11th, 2008 4:07 pm

    Really, few have suggested that Jones is a guaranteed superstar when arguing against trading him as part of a deal for Bedard.

    Jones has the potential to become an elite player but I doubt he reaches that ceiling. That said, I think there is a really good chance that he spends a significant amount of his control years being around a 4 win over replacement RFer (a little above average offensively and a plus defender-think Alex Rios’ ’07 season). Given his development thus far, I think it’s pretty reasonable to hope he could be at least league average next year and beyond (roughly 2.5 wins above replacement).

    You don’t have to be Vlad G. to be valuable.

    I can’t even fathom how the calculus passes mustard for Bavasi when variations of several of these guys (Sherrill, Morrow, Triunfel, Tillman, Clement etc) start getting added to the list in addition to Jones.

    I still wont believe that the rumors reflect the true parameters of these discussions until the trigger actually gets pulled and my suspicions are proven wrong.

  21. msb on January 11th, 2008 4:25 pm

    #88– Erstad signed with the Astros

    #113–Gonzo didn;t hit enough in the NL, what chance does he have as a Dh in the AL?

  22. Jeff Nye on January 11th, 2008 4:28 pm

    The only way that Jones not ending up as a superstar, rather than just a very good player (which he already is), changes the value of this deal would be if the relative economics of both players were equal.

    Once you figure in how much cheaper Jones will be for the next few years than the big money it’ll take to resign Bedard once he’s ready to hit free agency…it’s no contest, and the fact that Bavasi might be willing to add OTHER significant talent just makes the whole thing laughable.

  23. msb on January 11th, 2008 4:31 pm

    #119– last I heard the Rox wanted to resign him, but he was looking for more years than they wanted

  24. et_blankenship on January 11th, 2008 4:36 pm

    “#88– Erstad signed with the Astros”

    How could I forget. There mere thought of combining Erstad with WFB was so gritty to fathom I had to walk through an automatic car wash.

  25. musicman on January 11th, 2008 5:36 pm

    I never said Gonzo was going to be a killer at the plate, but he’s an available, affordable LH bat that would be a step up from turbo imo. And with Stuart in the two hole, I think we have a respectable lineup. If Morrow is still around after the trade, is it possible to package him for an LH bat for the outfield or DH?

    Does anyone know who might be available via trade?

  26. gwangung on January 11th, 2008 6:06 pm

    Does anyone know who might be available via trade?

    Shouldn’t that be a clear signal that perhaps trading so much for Bedard may not be a good idea? It starts a cascade of multiple trades that HAVE to get done in order to fill the holes you’ve opened up. And that’s the sort of thing that jacks the price up IF you can get them done—which is not a given the trading.

    Seems a little jury-rigged, paritcularly in a year when signable talent is so thin…and you’ve just traded a lot of your valuable trading chips.

  27. imfinkspa on January 11th, 2008 6:23 pm

    Stewart will be 34 and is coming off his first reasonably healthy year since 2002. Last year was probably his best during that time and he hit 290/345/394. I don’t see that line as particularly valuable or useful. Moreover, due to numerous knee and foot injuries, he’s lost a lot of range and never had much of an arm to begin with.

    Luis Gonzalez is 40 and was somewhat better than Stewart last year, hitting 278/359/433. He is pretty much useless in the field at this point, but he’s probably a minor upgrade over Turbo if you want to eat the salary, but it still fails to address your left field problem and Gonzalez has to be at least as likely as Jones to go in the tank this year (particularly after changing leagues and moving to one of the more pitching friendly parks he’s ever playerd in).

    The fact is, trading Jones opens a huge hole in the outfield without a promising replacement on the market or a reasonable replacement for the next six years in the wings.

  28. Mr. Egaas on January 11th, 2008 8:50 pm

    If Bavasi was really thinking of sending away Jones earlier this off season, he should have planned a backup long before now. If it comes down to giving some can’t-play-left and about the same threat as a hitter than Vidro to play left field, it’s just an entire mess. If it comes down to giving up Adam Jones, the best option is probably sitting on the projected AAA roster in Wladimir Balantien. Jenkins would have been perfect, Cameron would have been okay (but no way the team is looking to bring in somebody suspended for breaking the drug rules), anybody else just makes me even more peeved than I already am.

    Clearly, if his offseason goes as to tendering HoRam, not taking a free draft pick when Guillen was going to walk, dealing Broussard for peanuts, overpaying for Silva, guaranteeing money to Cairo, shipping off the future for Bedard, and giving an overpaid hack 500 ABs and 140 games in the outfield — that’s about seven negatives in my book.

    I will root for Detroit and Tampa Bay — at least they’ve got a clue, either go for it now when you’ve got a chance or give yourself a chance to do it for years to come. A ton of damage hasn’t been done to the future yet — I’m still an M’s fan for now, but the next several moves could sway me from the team until some changes at the top are made.

    Imagine if we would have rightfully drafted Andrew Miller. We wouldn’t even be in this position right now.

    Stop it Bill. Don’t do anything else.

  29. gwangung on January 11th, 2008 9:05 pm

    Stop it Bill. Don’t do anything else.

    Actually, he should say, “Howard. Chuck. SHOVE IT and SHUT UP.”

    Because it’s clear that a lot of this stuff is coming from over his head.

  30. skipj on January 11th, 2008 10:49 pm

    As a former major league observer and an unpaid, and unnoticed, consultant to every team major and minor, I feel easily as unqualified as the rest of you to comment:
    1. What is the record of the M’s protecting young players, and then turning it to their advantage down the line? (Little Unit alone drops that to a D in my book).
    2. What is the M’s history of non-A-ROD minor league talent contributing to a winning team?

    Does the farm just suck? Do they don’t know how to use it? Don’t know. Guess: Yes and Yes. But projections and league-wide stats mean very little when normed against “YOUR SEATTLE MARINERS”. It’s a weird place with a weird team.

    Stat heads, ATTACK!

  31. Joof on January 12th, 2008 12:10 am

    130: For Number 2 Varitek and David Ortiz used to be in the Mariner Farm system and played for the Red Sox. Asdrubal Cabrera is the starting second Baseman for the Indians and we traded him for some loser who had like 100 at bats. Those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head without trying too hard.

  32. joser on January 12th, 2008 1:36 am

    Unless I’m mistaken, there’s a guy named Ken Griffey Jr who came up from the farm and contributed to a winning team. And another one named Edgar Martinez (who could’ve contributed much sooner than he did). And another one named Tino Martinez (though most of the winning teams he contributed to were in the Bronx).

  33. terry on January 12th, 2008 5:00 am

    The Ms farm is in pretty good shape at the moment.

  34. Wishhiker on January 12th, 2008 9:26 pm

    Dave Henderson got a WS ring and was on 3 WS losers.

  35. s.bender21 on January 12th, 2008 10:41 pm

    Did everyone hear that Jones left winter ball early and is headed back to Seattle?

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.