‘08 M’s, Meet the ‘07 Blue Jays
Since it’s the topic we can’t get away from, here’s something I thought of in the last few days – if the Mariners make the Erik Bedard deal and have the pitching rotation of Geoff Baker’s dreams, is there a comparable recent team that was built on similar principles?
I think there is, and ironically, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays of 2007. Isn’t symmetry fun?
Seriously, let’s take a look at the concepts. Those in favor of the Bedard deal essentially argue that having Bedard-Felix-Silva-Batista-Washburn is such a good rotation, and that starting pitching is so vital to team success, that the team becomes an instant contender. Two aces, two innings eaters, and no unreliable guys who have no track record to sabotage things? How could this fail?
I present the ‘07 Blue Jays.
#1 Starter: Roy Halladay, the definition of an ace. 225 IP, 3.71 ERA.
#2 Starter: A.J. Burnett, inconsistent but sometimes dominating. 165 IP, 3.75 ERA
#3 Starter: Dustin McGowan, electric arm but command problems. 170 IP, 4.08 ERA
#4 Starter: Shaun Marcum, strike throwing innings eater. 159 IP, 4.13 ERA
#5 Starter: Jesse Litsch, good command contact guy. 111 IP, 3.81 ERA.
Toss in a bullpen trio of Jeremy Accardo (2.14 ERA), Scott Downs (2.17 ERA), and Casey Janssen (2.35 ERA), and the Blue Jays pitching staff last year was the prototype for what the pro-Bedard camp wants the Mariners pitching staff to look like. Two dominant guys at the front of the rotation, solid guys at the back end, innings eaters in the middle, and a shutdown bullpen capable of holding leads.
Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays strength in run prevention led to a 4.00 ERA, second in the American League. Since pitching is the name of the game, this strong combination of power arms and depth carried them into the playoffs, right?
Uhh, no. They finished 83-79 with a run differential of +50 runs – solid, but not a real contender, especially not in the American League. Why didn’t they win more games?
Easy – they didn’t score enough runs. Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios were good but not great, and while they got strong supporting performances from Matt Stairs and Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells forgot how to hit again and Lyle Overbay was one of the few first baseman alive as bad as Richie Sexson. The lack of production from several line-up spots killed rallies, and their overall reliance on right handed hitters made them an easy matchup for teams with good right handed pitching.
So, lets see – a line-up with several good but not great hitters, some black holes offensively, and an over reliance on RH bats – where have I seen this kind of offense before? Oh, right, in Safeco Field every night.
Seriously, just run through the comparisons in terms of run production.
Catchers: Zaun and Johjima are basically a push
Corner Infielders: Overbay/Glaus and Sexson/Beltre are about as even as you could get.
Middle Infielders: McDonald/Hill and Betancourt/Lopez are pretty even as hitters.
Outfielders: Stairs/Wells/Rios and Ibanez/Ichiro/random RF is pretty close to a push.
DH: Thomas blows Vidro out of the water.
These offenses are basically the same. You could argue that there are minor differences, but nothing drastic enough to eliminate the comparison.
If the Mariners follow the ‘07 Blue Jays formula, they’re very likely to replicate the ‘07 Blue Jays results – a decent team that is a big step behind the elite clubs in the American League.
Swapping Adam Jones for Erik Bedard pushes the Mariners towards being Toronto West. And, despite the hyperbole about the amazing transformative powers of having two lights out pitchers at the front of your rotation, the formula fails if the team isn’t good enough overall.
And they’re not – the M’s could have made themselves contenders this winter, but instead, they signed Carlos Silva. Making a disastrous trade for Erik Bedard and replacing Adam Jones with the carcass of Luis Gonzalez and his veteran entitlement wouldn’t make them a contender – it would make them a sad organization hoping for a miracle in lieu of a real plan.
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Bam! The evidence I’ve been looking for desperately but haven’t found.
Well discovered and well said.
Dave,
There persists this myth that a star pitcher is better than a star hitter. As such, Bedard would bring even more value just because he does his work on the mound every five days.
In your opinion, is this a myth, and if so, what’s the best way to attack and debunk that myth?
VORP for the last three years (that’s as far back as I went) gives slightly higher value to hitters than pitchers, but I’m curious as to how you’d go about it.
Wouldn’t our defense be much worse then the 07 Jay’s also? Making us even worse then the 83 win Jays.
Isn’t some of this offset by the fact that we don’t have to play the Yankees or the Red Sox more often during the season?? Or at least wouldn’t that be the Blue Jays FO’s rationale…their plan is sound…they just play the big boys alot and it makes it harder to get a great record.
Jays were 9-9 vs. the Sox and 8-10 vs. the Yanks.
The 07 Jays in the 08 AL West have a pretty good shot at a title, especially w/ the A’s pinning their hopes on Emil Brown and the Rangers on Eddie Guardado.
well, in a ‘typical’ year, the Angels and A’s end up with records similar to the Sox & Yankees…
I’m starting to think that Geoff Baker is the Judith Miller of baseball journalism. That would also make Erik Bedard = Yellowcake.
Two arguments for wanting to mimic Toronto would be:
1) The Mariners need to only outperform one team (Angels) instead of two (Red Sox, Yankees) in their division.
2) And… err, play to win!
#3 made the key point. The Toronto pitchers aren’t nearly as good as their ERAs suggest, benefiting by almost half a run from the Blue Jays’ league-leading defense. Solid pitching looks like spectacular pitching if you have the right fielders.
Last IP ERA xFIP BABIP
Litsch 111 3.81 5.16 .275
Marcum 159 4.13 4.52 .267
Halladay 225.3 3.71 4.05 .301
Burnett 165.7 3.75 3.70 .261
McGowan 169.7 4.08 3.97 .273
Halladay’s the only one without a really low BABIP and his was the one season considered mildly disappointing. If you consider typical one through five starters post ERAs of 3.50, 4.00, 4.50, 5.00, and 5.50, the Jays had a 1, two 2’s, a 3 and a 4/5 accordingn to the xFIPs. Raw ERAs make it seem like three 1/2s and two 2’s
And yes, the Jays paid the price with lack of offense from some positions. League-average hitters who play good defense are highly valuable.
If we’re going to play the xFIP game, bear in mind that Silva is below-average, and Batista/Washburn suck.
Before we go and crucify Geoff Baker here, lets take a little closer look at the teams offenses. You cannot equate HR to batting average. Yes, Toronto had more walks and HRs, but they also couldn’t hit of they tried and their extra 12 HRs payed off with 183 more strikeouts.
Batting Average
#3 Seattle .287 (1629 hits)
#24 Toronto .259 (1434 hits)
Strikeouts
#2 Seattle 861
#12 Toronto 1044
There are so many differences between these lineups I cant even describe them. Yes, both will not scare the living daylights out of you, but Seattle will get its hits(or at least last year).
Lets also just take a quick peek at the Seattle pitching staff of ‘07 (who by the way had an 88-74 record)
ERA
#3 Toronto 4.00
#23 Seattle 4.73
Hits
#3 Toronto 1383
#26 Seattle 1578
Runs Scored
#4 Toronto 699
#20 Seattle 813
Walks
#5 Toronto 479
#18 Seattle 546
Strikeouts
#16 Toronto 1067
#22 Seattle 1020
So if we add the ‘07 Mariner Offense, plus the ‘07 Toronto pitching staff; we get a much better team than the Toronto ‘07 team. I’m just glad this time that we will have a pitching staff that can hold an early lead.
Batting average?
Sheesh.
If you use the Mariners 07 offense as what they will do in 08 you don’t understand regression nor aging patterns. It would be a rare team that is already old that just got older and would somehow repeat its performance.
The Mariners would have only two of their 9 offensive players entering their peak offensive years.
I dispute Roy Halladay is the definition of an ace now. In his golden era, he was close to 7K/9 and 1BB/9. The last two years he is down to 5.5K/9 and last year 2BB/9.
Bedard struck out 10.9K/9 and 2.8BB/9.
FWIW, Bedard struck out 12 A’s per 9 in 18.2 IP. 14.6K/9 Rangers in 16 IP. He didn’t face the Angels.
#14 – records against teams you only face 2-3x are generaly worse than useless…
I have to agree with those making the argument that the 2007 AL East is completely different than the 2008 AL West. The Toronto Blue Jays have been constructed to contend over the last 2 seasons, but unfortunately, they have played in a difficult AL East. Even Tampa Bay is no longer a pushover (although you can make the argument Baltimore switched places with them).
The one thing that keeps me from wanting to acquire Bedard is his injury history. He is dominant when healthy, but can he stay healthy? At this point, I would rather take the risk of Adam Jones flopping than Erik Bedard staying healthy for the two seasons we have him.
Bedard struck out 10.9K/9 and 2.8BB/9.
I’m not saying you said or implied this, but I don’t get that a lot of people expect that line again. His strikeout rates were very stable at ~7.9 K/9. It jumped 3 full points You have to regress his numbers. He still projects to be a top pitcher, but nobody should go forward expecting a 3.13 xFIP again. It could happen, but the chances are he won’t be quite that good.
Marcel the Monkey has him at 9.0K/9 and Shandler has him at 9.8K/9.
Marcel ERA = 3.66.
Shandler xERA = 3.27.
The good news for Bedard going forward is the trend in walks. 4.7, 3.6, 3.2, 2.8.
I’m not arguing he’s not a good pitcher, just that people shouldn’t expect a repeat of 2007. It could happen, but history says it probably won’t.
I’m not arguing he’s not a good pitcher
I do think he’s likely to be a top pitcher next year though.
Chris, my numbers have him barely regressing at all, in terms of overall value.
Drop in strikeouts is more or less cancelled out by a drop in home runs allowed.
Most of Dave’s arguments and analysis tend to convince me but it is not that much of a stretch to believe that the addition of Bedard would instantly make the Mariners a strong enough team to realistically challenge the Angels. Sure, a few other pieces have to fall in place like some players having career years and/or major comebacks, but that it is the formula for the majority of World Series champions.
I thought when that occurs, the team is already in the thick of things–i.e., the lineups’ expected output already puts them into playoff contention.
I’m not sure that’s the case here. And depending on career years to contend is not a good strategy in my book.
All this talk about Bedard seems to keep coming back to whether or not he is a good pitcher. I don’t think anyone says he is not a good pitcher. I’m sure no one would complain if he winds up on the roster.
It’s about the price. The price is too high if it includes Jones. It’s really that simple.
22 – I agree that there’s an element of luck in winning the Series. On the other hand, I find that the Mariners always count on an element of luck to get into the playoffs and for me, that doesn’t really cut it as a season- or longer-term strategy.
Good analysis. There’s nothing wrong with good pitching. When you consider the Jays played in the AL East, I’d say they probably had a top 5 pitching staff, at least. Anyway, not scoring runs and mainly injuries from key guys were the reasons the Jays lost last year. So if you think your team can score runs, and you need pitching, then why wouldn’t Bedard put you over the top? I do agree they are similar offensively. The Jays scored 50 less runs but had massive injuries.
I am new to the Mariners so I haven’t seen Adam Jones in action and the love here has me reading through some of last year’s books/info. Jones seems to project to be somewhere between Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones, not a bad thing at all.
Who do you see Jones becoming best case and likely case? Thanks.
Exhibit A for batting average being useless for evaluative purposes: Jose Vidro, 2007.
Tanner: BA’s prognosis on Jones last year was that he would be similar to Mike Cameron: good defense in CF, with 25-ish homruns, low average, and a not great OBP, but a decent amount of stolen bases. He can also play shortstop too. He’s a good athlete and seems pretty safe, as far as prospects go, to reach his ceiling.
I may be forced to admit they are only one pitcher away from being contenders. The correct guy, such as the one in this video, would be ideal.
He’s a lefty, which fits Safeco. And, since the Mariners were momentarily enamored with Dontrelle Willis, this guy’s windup would fit what they are looking for.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=MlJS3-hI30Q
29 – you’ve got to adjust Jones’ ceiling upwards based on what he did in 2007. I’m sure BA won’t mind.
The 25-ish HRs thing is incontrovertibly too low (again – we’re talking CEILING here). He hit 25 last year in a big-time HR suppressing environment, and in 420ABs. He’s clearly 30, 35+ HR guy in the majors, in a full season, if everything goes right. Even the average thing doesn’t take into account the growth he had last year. He’s a lifetime .291 hitter in the minors, compared to Cameron’s .258. They’re really not all that similar.
The Cameron comps come more from midpoint projections than they do to ceilings.
The shortstop thing needs to stop. It’s over, it’s been decided, he’s not a SS. Not quite the same, but it’s like saying he could still contribute out of the bullpen or something.
I love reading this site…….but, for the most part, most posters are truly negative, as are OP’s. Statistics lie, we all know that, but most can’t admit that. I could throw some statistic out there, and most would find a way to show another stat to counteract it. That game could go on and on.
Bedard….is definitely a #1 or #2, so is Felix. Isn’t that what we need in the post season. In order to succeed in the post season, you need quality pitching, not Washburn followed by Batista. I like them , but not as a 1 or 2 in the playoffs.
If we are going to win in the postseason, we need a quality #1 and 2. Bedard and Felix MIGHT give us that.
Throw me all the stats you want, I don’t buy them all, give me a stud #1 and #2 and lets see what happens. Jones is NOT going to bring us to the playoffs, Bedard and Felix might.
C’mon fellow posters, speak up. I’m a math major, been studying math for 40+ years, don’t buy into all that STAT stuff, give me a #1 and #2.
Let’s be more positive, let’s take a chance. Trufinel…..who knows, same as Clement (same guy these OP’s were ragging on for a slow bat), Morrow,
OP’s keep stating how he will never be a SP. Tillman, c’mon….let go
Who are OPs?
If you mean the authors, you’re clearly not paying attention. No one’s argued he’d “never be a SP”. And if you’re not willing to read closely and pay attention to what anyone else is saying, and you’re willing to disregard any stat-based argument, I don’t see that there could be productive end in trying to argue with you.
And the “truly negative” thing is lame.
Well, you may want to reconsider your major.
Well at least you’re open-minded about the issue….
BTW, math facilitated the invention of nuclear weapons and it enabled Milton Friedman. You should be ashamed.
Clearly, someone didn’t see the pony logo.
I am kind of with you #32.
I understand the numbers but where else does Seattle get a #1-quality starter? Morrow? The draft? Free agency? You have Felix for 3 more years, hopefully more.
You lose Jones. Where do you get a top level outfield glove and an 800 OPS?
You lose stupid posters – where else will we get them?
Oh, I know, they’ll keep showing up and making the same arguments day after day.
30- Plus his fast ball seems to just JUMP out of his hand…
Without the Toronto defense that pitching staff turns to average real quick.
Well, A) that #1 quality starter isn’t going to behave like a #1 quality starter if he’s stuck with an inferior defense. and B) Pitching is NOT enough. You don’t win divisions with pitching alone.
You’re getting hypotized by the “ace.” Think with your head, not with your heart.
38 That’s a serious dilemma…
I’ve got a great idea…since all that matters is Aces, maybe we get as many as we can for Ichiro, Putz, Beltre, Betancourt, Lopez, Kenji and the entire farm and…The extra Aces can field the positions that Bloomquist, Vidro and Sexson aren’t hacking up…Great team, yeah!!!
I forgot about playing or trading Ibanez…well we’d need a CFer and with the rest of the defense, he’d fit perfectly there!
Is OP like OG??? Original Poster???
23 days, are you a hardcore gangsta from the West Siiiiiieeed?
Dave. I look forward to tomorrow’s analogy.
We have had a car, 2007 Blue Jays, maybe you could compare the Mariners to an animal (dead horse perhaps), a pair of pants or the weather in Fresno.
Maybe we need USS Mariner gangsigns.
Jeff Nye – Hilarious just to think about…imagine Bavasi’s reaction at a feed…
I am absolutely stunned at this comparison. It’s obviously not perfect, but I feel every thing’s been said. I agree with the Defense and DH detriments to the M’s, the 1 less big spending owner in their division for the M’s and the idea that even with Bedard, the M’s have little hope for passing the Angels. I keep hoping that Cincinnati will get it done…
I don’t think that is true. The lower a pitcher’s FIP the less important the defense behind him (i.e. strikeout more, walk less and give up fewer HRs and balls in play are less damaging). Basically pitchers with high Krates and low BB rates tend to have ERAs that are closer to their FIPS because in essence they minimize their defense (by giving the defense less chance to impact scoring). Examples of this that are relevant to USSM content from last fall (discussion of Tampa’s undervalued rotation) would be James Shields and Scott Kazmir whose FIPs and ERA were almost identical despite playing in front of the worst defense in the majors.
IMHO, this is the part that Baker isn’t getting…. It’s easier/more efficient to make your pitching staff better by improving the defense than it is by doing what might be necessary to add a guy who minimizes the effect of his defense….
I think the 2001 Ms support this notion…
#32 wins the thread. How can anyone argue the logic of a math major telling us that statistics don’t work. I’ve pulled this bookmark off my browser now that I know this.
29 – defense is good, but having the best defense in baseball is not going to change a mediocre pitching staff into one of the best.
Also, give the guy a break – he has a different opinion. Maybe he thinks Bedard is more valuable than Jones.
#39 that is.
Hm. Probably right. I should retract that with respect to better pitchers.
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily apply to the lesser pitchers..
2001 Mariners?
Perhaps not the best, but better than might be warranted.
#50 …having the best defense in baseball is not going to change a mediocre pitching staff into one of the best.
I beg to differ. If mediocre is league-average, that’s about a 4.50 ERA. The best fielding team could sport an average of +10 runs at 8 positions for +80 overall. That’s .5 runs per game, lowering our average pitching staff’s ERA to 4.00. The top three AL teams in ERA in 2007 were BOS (3.87), TOR (4.00), and CLE (4.05). 4.00 would qualify as “one of the best”.
You have Felix for 3 more years, hopefully more.
Four more years, actually.
Dave,
I Normally do not agree with alot of thing you say. And here is no different…no I’m kidding lol.
You hit the nail on the head. You know I even called Bavasi? I got through to his secretary before they figured out I didn’t know him. Jones for Bedard would be the worst trade ever.
Felix should be better than Burnett this next year. Halladay had an off year too. The Jays also play in a considerably harder division than ours (granted, they do get to play the Rays and the Orioles). Our division is going to be weak this year with the Rangers still being bad and the A’s reloading.
The 2007 Jays had some entertaining characteristics, and were fun to watch (there are maybe two pitchers in baseball I’d rather watch than Roy Halladay), but they were the definition of a mediocre team. I can only imagine what the Vegas line on them finishing third was.
I did enjoy that of their three top position players by VORP, one of them was Rios, and the other two had a combined age and weight of 78 years and 510 lb. And for some unknown reason I’m a big fan of Gregg Zaun (he’s like a miniature Matt Stairs).
The 2007 Jays are the team that teams who aren’t trying to compete should aspire to be. Hopefully that’s not us.
Oh, and we can’t be the 2007 Jays without someone who looks as goofy as Jesse Litsch in his official photo.
As it turns out, the premise for this thread is bunk.
The Ms with Bedard wouldn’t be like an 83 win Toronto team because that team competed in a division that had two playoff contenders (while the Ms only have to ceal with one such team in their division) so Toronto is a hopelessly flawed comp. Clearly, the Ms with Bedard would be much more like a 96 win Minnesota team because that team only had one…hey, wait a minute……
OK, nevermind.
Anybody notice Jones was instructed to leave the Venezuelan Winter league, so rotoworld says. Could mean nothing I suppose . . this discussion may not be moot if the deals goes down, but I sure don’t want to think about how little Bedard might help us if it does, at least not for a few weeks, after the vomitting stops.
The M’s with Bedard may win 85 games sure – who’s to tell as nobody predicted we’d win 88 games last year but they have the potential to do more. The M’s without Bedard and Jones in RF win 75 games max. Hard choice.
The M’s without Bedard and Jones in RF win 75 games max. Hard choice.
Hahahahahahaha. Haha. Hah. Awesome. Got anything to back that number up with?
This is a very interesting comparison, but I think the main thing the author didn’t take into consideration was the injuries the Jays had. From broken hands to back surgery, the Jays lost more man hours than any team in major league history. Hard to justify the jays only being an 83 win team when they weren’t on the field. In order to win anywhere, you have to have a #1 &2, pitcher. What they did do was win 83 games in the AL east with their pitching. If they didn’t have that, they would have been lucky to win 60 games.
well let see – jones is only likely to put up something like 15/75 next year as he’s still pretty green and then we’d have our current rotation with probably HoRam rounding it out. If that doesn’t scream under .500 team I don’t know what does. Our rotation right now is awful – the rest of the rotation will just bring Felix down over time but if you get a legit #1 guy to anchor it then he could lift the play of the other guys especially felix. I’m not making a profound argument here – with Bedard we are a better team this year. Without him and we play jones/horam – we are a bad team. seems fairly obvious.
You’re incorrect. Mariners were roughly a .500 team last year if you like Pythag (and hey, if you don’t, we were better), and have gotten better – Jones is a net improvement over Guillen due to defense, and Silva is an improvement over Weaver.
Yes, they would be better with Bedard, but only for one season and we wouldn’t get anywhere with it.
PS: There are much better ways to evaluate a player than making up random HR/RBI numbers for them. The way analysis is conducted normally involves runs above/below average for both batting and glovework, but you can get away with a using OPS/mention of defensive ability. HR and RBI ain’t gonna fly, though.
Pulling numbers from thin air, I see.
that’s what projections are my friend. you can use numbers he posted in AAA all you want but there is no sure-fire way to predict – you can spout off well the #’s say this or that but they aren’t always right/dead on. In his first year you can’t expect him to come out and hit his max of say 25-30hrs/100+ rbi’s. It just doesn’t work that way. I could put together all sorts of number projections off this or that but I have a life and realize that the #’s aren’t always right and there is a human factor into what a person does also.
Why not? You’re expecting him to perform to a certain level, and you’re freely admitting you have even less evidence to back up that claim or methodology in your projection. I could claim he’ll hit 60 home runs, because I did his astrological chart or something, as long as we’re discarding all reasonable assumptions.
Also, that “you don’t have a life” thing is out of line.
Bill James disagrees.
He has a ring. You don’t.
OK…that’s an exaggeration…but there’s all sorts of work done on projecting minor league numbers to major league numbers…and a lot of that work is being used by successful major league franchises.
Some of it is kinda simple, too—if you knock out a lot of home runs out of a minor leauge park where it’s hard to hit homers (Cheney just might fit the bill here), then there’s a good chance you can knock a few home runs out in the big leagues (even in a park like SAFECO).
Must…control…fist of death…
See, this is what happens when I try to be nice when explaining that you shouldn’t use RBI/HR.
I’ll know better next time.
I simply need to know. How is it that i got lambasted for using ERA (previous thread) as an accurate stat to evaluate pitchers, by Dave, (The quote was something like “ERA is a completely worthless tool for evaluating pitchers.” Then I was referred to the remedial reading “How to evaluate pitcher talent.” Which i read and found helpful) then Senor Dave busts out with ERA as a tool to evaluate and compare the Mariners with the Jays?
You can’t have it both ways. Either ERA is useful or it isn’t.
73, I was wondering that myself. Maybe it’s because the issue with ERA is that it doesn’t isolate defense, but in this analysis, we aren’t concerned with analyzing defense? I suppose it doesn’t matter who saved the runs, or if it was park factors or what, just as long as the basic formula is the same – 2 good pitchers, 3 average to below average pitchers.
So, the short answer would be that ERA isn’t useful for individual pitching evaluation, but acceptable for a holistic team view. Obviously I didn’t write the post, but that’s my theory for Dave’s justification.
Do you buy it?