Jones not called home, but may be sitting out, or something
All kinds of places reporting all kinds of things. The truth may be just as confusing as the conflicting rumors at this point, as Shannon Drayer pointed out:
Since speaking to the Mariners I have received an email reply from Adam saying that he is still in Venezuela and, “I don’t know what is going on, but I am just trying to stay cool.” If you know Adam at all, he can’t help but stay cool.
Interesting that he is in Venezuela and not playing. Adam has not played in a game for Lara since January 9, did not even play in a double header on the 10th. While the club may not have called him home, it appears that they have told him not to play.
Could be they are debating shutting him down after a good winter or possibly, something is in the works on the trade front.
So at this point, it appears that many places — the Baltimore Sun, wherever — are reporting that he’s been told to return home, which appears to not be true, from the original now-disputed Venezualean report, but at the very least Jones isn’t playing for reasons we don’t yet know.
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Well, aren’t we all glad THAT was cleared up?
At this point, I’m ready to just sit back and wait and see. I fear though that the same arguments we’ve seen rehashed over and over are about to ensue.
Is Morrow still pitching or has he already been called back?
Well, the M’s know their iFans are neurotic. This is just one more way they’re toying with us…
Although Id like to see Bedard come here, I have changed my position. I think you put Morrow in place of Jones. After investigating further in to what is out there for FA OF’ers I’m inclined to say Jones has to stay. Even if its for a good pitcher. Jones value for right now is higher then Bedards.
last paragraph from Drayer’s blog:
9:15 Update…A team source says that he thinks that the “calling Adam Jones home” in the report was misconstrued as home being Seattle when home in fact meant back to his home base in Venezuela. The source believes Adam will be playing again for Lara. The Cardenales who were off today (Sunday) are scheduled to play tomorrow.
Not sure if it’s wishful thinking on my part, but that actually makes me feel a little better.
I’m fine with giving up Morrow in a package for Bedard. Any package that includes Jones, though, will leave me very sad.
Just read this on the MLB.com hot-stove:
Erik Bedard: Various reports continue to link Bedard with the Mariners as Spring Training approaches. A source told MLB.com on Sunday that the Orioles have given up trying to obtain reliever Brandon Morrow in the deal, and would instead accept Mariners Minor League Pitcher of the Year Chris Tillman. Baltimore also apparently wants left-handed reliever George Sherrill included in the deal.
If we give up Jones, Tillman, Triunfel and Sherril we might as well throw in Ichiro and Felix. I wonder if the Pirates would be interested in Clement, Putz and Wlad for Matt Morris?
Again the management is trying to fix this team with scotch tape instead of building a strong foundation.
Apparently the latest offer is Jones, Clement and Sherrill. The O’s want us to either add Triunfel or Morrow as well. It is starting to look like this deal will fall through which in my eyes would be a blessing.
I am really hoping this deal doesn’t go through. It’s just robbery, plain and simple.
God, I hope Bavasi stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night and today he knows how to do his job..
This is agonizing.
11- that’s rad…
12- it’s brutal…
I don’t see any reasonable explanation of why he’s not playing other than he’s being traded.
Reasonable and this front office are not on speaking terms…
If we give up Jones, Tillman, Triunfel and Sherril we might as well throw in Ichiro and Felix. I wonder if the Pirates would be interested in Clement, Putz and Wlad for Matt Morris?
What’s next? Adrian Beltre for Matt Kata?
#16
We can’t trade Beltre for Kata: we’ll need him for good measure to seal the Bedard deal if Baltimore still hesitates after we add Felix and Ichiro to the package.
Bavasi can’t be trusted to trade a bucket of balls, and therein lies the problem. Andy MacPhail knows a pushover when he sees one.
In 2007, Bavasi dealt Yorman Bazardo… for a washed-up outfielder (Jeff Frazier) in order to clear a roster spot for Weaver. Barzado was solid for Detroit (2-1, 2.28 ERA). Apparently, Bavasi also thought Sean White was more valuable than Bazardo. The jury is still out, but I am not betting on White (1-1, 5.60 ERA, 20 BB’s to 16 SO’s). It is interesting that acquiring Barzardo was one of Bavasi’s less lopsided trades (Villone). Even when he makes a decent trade, he trades the valuable chip for crap.
Bavasi then dealt Soriano for Horramible, which turned into a disastrous trade for Seattle. Taken together with the incompetent Asdrubal Cabrera trade in 2006, this should have led to Bavasi’s firing. Unfortunately, Lincoln is calling the shots. It is obvious that nothing will change until the team is sold and/or Lincoln is shown the door.
Bavasi was then saved from himself, when KC decided to accept Atlanta’s offer, instead of Seattle’s offer of Wladimir Balentien for Dotel. As you will recall, Dotel immediately went on the DL.
Lets hope the baseball gods intervene again.
Jones should not be dealt. Period.
Ditto for Balentien, who continues to show plate discipline in winter ball (27K’s, 20 BB’s).
Ditto for Clement, who flashed great power in his first callup.
Morrow is having a solid winter as a starter (1-2, 3.60 ERA, 26 H, 23/6 K/BB in 25 IP).
In trading Sherrill, Bavasi will once again weaken a strength (elite lefty setup) to temporarily shore up the rotation (unlikely that Bedard signs with Seattle).
Tillman? A total stud.
I am willing to be patient while the team’s young talent develops. This is the approach Hank Steinbrenner is taking.
Horramible – that has to be the most appropriate moniker I’ve seen for anybody in years.
There’s something rotten in Billmark.
And this also reminds us that there’s no good reason for Jones to even be in Venezuela.
Jones is supposed to be playing again in Lara tonight.
Raise your hand if you’re confused.
hopefully they shut him down to trade him, but either the trade is now dead, or they have replaced jones with morrow or someone else…him playing tonight might be a good sign that seattle is keeping him…
Why must the Mariners make every offseason so difficult? It seems like they have no long-term plans whatsoever. They need to set a goal have a freaking plan and stick with it. They are always stuck in the middle somewhere half-way rebuilding half-way trying to making a plan off run. Either shit or get off the pot!! Sorry, I am just a little frustrated with the M’s lately.
#25: It’s like they’ll be good enough to keep the team interesting, but that’s it.
This is making me very very nervous. I dont think this team needs bedard at this point. Especially not for who we are willing to give up. I hate bavasi and have since he came around, the fact they kept him longer really aggrivates me. I heard that the mariners have talked to Luis Gonzales to fill in AJ’s spot if he’s traded, then it went on to say that seattle would have the worst corner outfielders in the league.
#25 I disagree. They have a plan, it just doesn’t have anything to do with building an actual title contender. “Profits Before Pennants” philosophy dictates:
Step 1) Find the biggest “name” you can afford via trade or free agency
Step 2) ?
Step 3) Profit!
As long as they get enough butts in seats to be profitable there’s no incentive to change.
I for got to add – it works for the L.A. Galaxy, so why not for the Mariners
I dont know about you guys but id be much more excited to come to a game to see AJ play and the young kids than Erik Badard.
Could the M’s have been given a ‘negotiation window’ with Bedard to sign an extension?
Agreed. If they blow up the farm for one arm, I will not be attending another game until Bill Bavasi is no longer with the club.
#32, i agree with you 100 percent. I probably wouldnt go to another game until he was gone.
OK… so as proved by Dave… Jones for Bedard makes no fiscal sense any way you slice it…
What if we dumped everyone BUT Jones? Tillman, Triunfel, Clement, Wlad and Morrow…? Maybe Baltimore has said the deal must involve Jones but if the M’s could do it and and hang onto him… would it be a good deal?
32: I agree, I don’t want to be an Ms fan if this trade goes through. =/
Screw all of that, just drop the bedard trade.
Who cares if we are a young team, id rather be a younge team and raise these boys to be mariners than ship out our future products for 1 damn pitcher who really isnt that stellar enough i think to give up who we are willing to give up. If AJ is able to produce offensivly i think that should outweigh the pitching especially if morrow can really pull it all together and be a quality 5 hole pitcher.
Front office aint gonna get any better until they get rid of Armstrong and Lincoln. Bavasi is as good as it gets with those two in charge—I doubt they’ll hire anyone who’s obviously more competent than they are…
34 jamesllegade: From what I’ve heard the scouts are saying, and of course he’s really young so a lot could change, Truinfel could be better than Jones even. IMHO if we could get away with Morrow, Clement, Wlad, and some other pitcher not named Tillman, it might be a worthwile trade. But obviously the O’s are asking even more than that, and supposedly more than even Jones, Clement, and Sherrill (who I’d rather keep but could live with if the rest of the package wasn’t too steep) so I think they just need to lay this rest and let it go.
[and that's it for you]
One of my more favorite things about ussmariner (outside of the analysis and such, of course) are the moderator comments when someone’s post gets deleted. Good fun.
Baltimore is now talking to Dotel and Barajas. Maybe this means no GS52 and no Clement? Here’s hoping the deal is off after all.
To be quite honest, I feel like at this point, both the O’s and M’s front offices MUST be so sick of each other that they’ve decided to call it quits. Let’s face it – the O’s are asking for a package even the Mariners’ “Varitek and Lowe for Slocumb” management can’t accept. If a major trade goes down for Bedard, i’ll be extremely surprised.
Perhaps I’m underestimating the sheer stupidity of our management.
[Bring back Doyle]
Is Baltimore getting desperate to unload Bedard by any chance? They are not exactly jumping at any trade offer, but if they are running around to other teams to see what more they can get, the more it appears Baltimore has been worn down by Bavasi & Co. If Baltimore truly believed they could get more for Bedard, then they would just hang onto him like the Twins are doing with Santana, which doesn’t appear to be happening.
I would love to see Baltimore get worn down to the point where Jones isn’t even involved in the trade. I doubt Bavasi will be able to do this, but it could possibly happen if he holds out long enough.
Is Baltimore getting desperate to unload Bedard by any chance?
No. I think the Orioles are in a hurry to make a decision on whether he’ll be traded before the season starts, but they have him under contract through 2009 so there’s no rush. If they don’t deal him now, they’ll try again at the in-season trade deadline.
I think McPhail has his price, and either teams will meet it or he’ll just keep his player.
Everyone keeps slamming Bavasi for his recent trades and then lament him for possibly trading the future for one player. I’m not sure about Adam Jones but all the other young players mentioned, Clement, Tillman, Morrow, Triunfel, Balentein etal were drafted or obtained while Bavasi has been GM. I guess I’m the eternal optimist but the Mariners have built one hell of a minor league under Bavasi. He needs to get credit.
Dangit, why on earth are the M’s seemingly hellbent on keeping Jones off our roster and out of our starting lineup no matter the cost, yet they won’t give up on the asinine idea of trying to make Morrow a starter without any real minor league experience?
At this point, I would not mind one bit if we traded Morrow, because with the way we are handling him, we’re reducing his chances at a good career. Is a talented? Yes. Can he become a very good pitcher? Also yes, I just don’t think it will ever happen with the way we are handling him. Also, since we would be getting a starter, why not trade Morrow? If you are the M’s and are in “win now” mode, wouldn’t they realize that a full year of Jones will help them a lot more than having Morrow be the long relief guy who comes in and walks every other batter during junk time?
If the deal is something like Clement, Morrow, and Sherrill for Bedard I would feel MUCH better.
Anyway, in my almost 20 years of following the M’s, this is the LOWEST I have ever felt. Even more than when we were losing in the late 80′s / early 90′s. What an inept organization.
47 I agree that it is good that Bavasi has helped build up the system, but what good is it if guys like Barzardo, Jones, Triunfel and Cabrera are all traded away ineptly? Talk about a sysiphean task.
47 – Too bad they don’t hand out World Series trophies for building “one hell of a minor league,” huh?
His talent evaluation skills mean nothing if he ships all of it away for something that won’t help the team win.
When what’s his name oh yea Pat Gillick left, our minor league system was in shambles. He had pretty much traded away all of our good prospects for hardly anything in return. All we had left were guys like Shane Monahan and Brian Turang (remember them) and we’ve come to find out that Monahan was steroid enhanced. I don’t believe Bavasi will ever let the M’s get to that stage.
Um… I wouldn’t call our farm system “one hell of a minor league.”
“One hell of a minor league” would produce Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Bucholz type players.
#50-All I’m saying is lets not panic or get down on management until the deals are made or not made. My only gripe with M’s management is that they made it hard for Lou Piniella to stay here. I didn’t have a problem with the Soriano trade for Rameriz last year. Our strength was our bullpen and our need was starting pitching. You always trade from your strength to you weakness. It didn’t work out but I had no problem with it. You can’t predict success. Rameriz had pretty good numbers with Atlanta before he got hurt. Soriano was a question mark becasue you don’t know how he would recover from being hit in the face. Who knows? I didn’t hear anyone complain about the signings Guillen and Batista at the end of the season, when they had good years. I heard many complain on talk radio about how bad the signings were, yet they both had pretty decent seasons. You can’t predict anything.
We’ve pretty consistently given Bavasi credit for building up the minor league system. Although it can also be argued that that’s more Bob Fontaine than Bill Bavasi.
He is atrocious at properly valuing major league talent, though, and that is by far the more important part of his job.
And seriously, can we please stop beating the “you can’t predict anything” dead horse? Please?
Guillen didn’t have that great a year, all told.
Also: if you look back at our reaction to those signings, you’ll see that you can, indeed, predict things.
Heh.
No I won’t because its the truth. The Red Sox traded away Jamie Moyer because he wasn’t a dependable left handed starting pitcher. He comes to Seattle and resurrects his career. The Yankees trade away Jay Buhner becasue they needed a left handed power hitter (Ken Phelps) and the rest is history. You can’t predict it. The Mariners traded a young David Ortiz to the Twins for Dave Hollins, a pretty good player, who doesn’t do much for Seatle. etc, etc, etc.
Oh, cool, so you’re willing to throw out the entire concept of the predictive value of past performance based on three rather dubious counterexamples.
Thanks for the clarification.
The problem with most people today is that they are always looking for the negative side of things. It takes no work or talent to be negative all the time so most people will go that way. I always try and look at things more positive. I remember when the M’s got Randy Johsnon and Brian Holman and another picture for Mark Langston. Everyone thought it was a pretty bad deal. Holman paid dividends right away and proably would have had a great career if he hadn’t got hurt. Randy Johson took a bit longer but now is a Hall of Famer. Lets get real.
The problem with people today is they’re all making overly broad generalizations all the time.
You are right on that one. I apologize for making an overly broad generalization. Some people are really negative. I hope that is a bit better.
DMZ: What does it cost you to be more positive?
About 50 IQ points.
Look, I don’t know why you think we’re too negative because we’re not posting 50-50 “this proposed trade sucks”/”this trade is awesome” because we think the trade sucks, but beyond that –
You don’t know me. I don’t make assumptions about you, or how smart you are or your outlook on life or whatever based on your comments here, and I’d appreciate it if you’d extend the same courtesy to others.
How could you accuse Derek of being negative?
He was the one who decided to post Graham’s pony logo, after all.
If you’re not negative I apologize but you keep putting Bavasi down for a trade he hasn’t even made yet. I looked at that as pretty negative.
Please let me know where I put Bavasi down for a trade he hasn’t made yet.
Because I haven’t done that.
I said the rumored Bedard deal on the 8th was horrible.
Dave did some analysis just on Jones v Bedard on the 8th.
I wrote up a car analogy about overpayment for something that doesn’t meet a set of needs on the 9th.
I talked about how bad deals like the proposed Bedard-Jones deal often fall apart on the 11th.
Dave then made a comparison between the M’s and Blue Jays.
At no point do I put down Bavasi for a trade he hasn’t made yet.
I don’t like the rumored trade deals, certainly. Dave did some analysis on why it’s bad. I’ve been happy that no deal’s been struck.
But if I’ve repeatedly put down Bavasi, I’m not seeing it. So please late me know where I did that.
Thanks in advance.
If I see my friend trying to buy a home he can’t afford with a subprime mortgage deal, it isn’t being negative to put him down.
Being negative != not liking decisions you like.
That’s nice. I try to look at things more accurately.
When you get a piece of rotten fruit, and you look at the positive side of it, does it stop being a rotten fruit?
Hickey says Jones is back in action for the Cardenelas. No explanation provided by Bavasi for taking him out for two days.
Amen Scraps! Bavasi hasn’t showed good judgment while making trades. Kind of hard to be excited when looking at his track record.
Good grief, you guys! Tumwater Mike (correct me if I’m wrong) is just trying to say that he thinks us posters should be more open-minded.
However, to be fair, living in Seattle and being fans of a baseball team with a currently terrible management, we’re used to being somewhat sarcastic, and (more to the point) realistic as compared to, say, Boston fans.
Relating to the whole Jones/Bedard situation, I sure hope we don’t deal Tony Butler. He’s the next Scotty Kazmir, mark my words. Looks like it’ll be either Jones or (preferrably) Morrow, Sherrill, and Chris Tillman for the Big Canadian.
69 – Cautiously, I’m excited about that. Well, sort of. He still shouldn’t even be playing there, but the fact that he is welcome news.
So many things that I want to say to TumwaterMike, but I’ll just brag about being right in the first response on this page.
Tum,
I disagree. The minor league system should be in much better shap.
We passed up Tulowitsky and Maybin to take Clement. We passed up Linccum and Miller to take Morrow. It is likely that if we had drafted Lincecum, we wouldn’t be having this discussion about Bedard.
Name one major trade that Bavasi has made which resulted in improving the Mariner system. The Garcia trade is a bust. Carlos Guillen? Moyer? Villone? Where are those prospects?
Asdrubal Cabrera could easily be the Mariners’ second basemen, but for Bavasi trading him for a future ESPN analyst (Perez).
Finally, Jones and Balentien belong to Gillick.
“The problem with people today is they’re all making overly broad generalizations all the time.”
Great stuff! It had me laughing out loud.
OK. First off, I dislike Adam Jones. I feel like Mike Cameron will end up on his “comparables” list when it’s all said and done. Now, Cameron’s a nice player, but he’s no All-Star. So that’s what I see in Jones. I seem to recall that Jose Cruz Jr. was a bigger prospect, and he never really panned out as most prospects don’t turn into stars.
BUT… Erik Bedard is simply not enough for Adam Jones. Even if it ends up that Bedard brings more wins with him than Jones would have. From an emotional standpoint, Bedard is just another guy. He won’t have his own candy bar or specially named fan section. Jones, at least, is a “real” Mariner and offers hope. In fact, any thing for Jones that doesn’t involve a marketable star (or potential marketable star) is no deal for me. Bedard seems so typically above-average that I couldn’t enjoy any of the extra possible wins.
I’m sure you don’t mean you dislike him personally. Anyway — Cameron at his peak was absolutely an All-Star. Stellar defense and solid hitting, even with the strikeouts, made him one of the most valuable outfielders in baseball.
Jones was last year’s #1 prospect in the system, he might be this year’s, at which point he’d be the #1 as often as Cruz, who rated #1 twice. Alex Rodriguez got #1 twice as well. So did Felix.
Ryan Anderson? 5.
Anyway — it doesn’t particularly matter, they’re not at all the same player.
If we end up with a cheap Mike Cameron until 2013 I wouldn’t complain at all.
Comparing him to Jose Cruz Jr. is a little unfair. Jones has already proved to be a better hitter, and is much more valuable as a defensive player than Cruz.
There really isn’t any reason to trade Jones right now unless you’re really rather see the Mariners be an 81 win team that has a couple of great starters than an 80 win team that is more offensive and defensive oriented.
You can’t predict success.
Then there is no point in paying good money for a GM to run your team.
I mean, of course you can predict success. You won’t always be right, any more than a batter will get a hit every time he comes to the plate, but somebody with a good background in baseball or a good head for statistical analysis can predict things like, “Miguel Cabrera is likely to have a better year at the plate than Brandon Inge,” or “Jeremy Bonderman is likely to have a better career than Jeff Weaver,” or “Andrew Miller won’t be an effective major league pitcher unless he developes a reliable third pitch . . .”
And this is THE POINT.
If you use your tools right, you can improve your prediction of success….not to perfection….but if you can improve your success rate from, say, 40% to 65%…why wouldn’t you? Even improving it from 40% to 50% is still a big win—you’re improving your efficiency by 25%.
Big business jump all over processes that give them 5% improvements. Why are people so resistant to doing that in baseball?
59 DMZ The problem with people today is they’re all making overly broad generalizations all the time.
This is post of the month, right? Is this a semi-quote or did you come up with it. Fits perfectly anyway.
Yeah Jones and Balentien belong to Gillick. Bavasi is responsible for the poor team building that resulted in early 1st picks Clement and Morrow though, he’s much better for the farm system. A winning GM has a hard time picking so early.
Brand new, though the sentiment’s certainly been expressed many, many times before.
Well I realize that mlbtraderumors.com is an unreliable source, but apparently it is reporting how the Mets are becoming the front runners for Bedard, and the fact that Jones is playing again indicates that he isn’t being traded.
Is it still too early to celebrate?
81 – Probably. Nothing is stopping Bavasi from caving. But, yeah, I’m more optimistic myself.
I think that if I were in MacPhail’s situation, I would be playing it pretty much as he is.
He doesn’t need to accept the best deal he can get now. More particularly, if he holds Bedard until the trade deadline, he can certainly get a comparable haul of talent as he is asking now.
Right now, it’s a lot riskier for a team to deal for Bedard under the belief he will put them over the top. That assumption is built on other assumptions on how the season will play out.
Come mid-June, though, there will be teams who are actual or possible playoff teams who need to solidify their rotation. Teams won’t be speculating at whether someone such as Bedard would be the difference for them, making the potential payoff of having him for the rest of his arb time much more tangible.
The risk to the Orioles from playing that strategy is the risk that Bedard will get injured or his performance will collapse. If Bedard really is as good as hyped, though, the performance risk is lessened.
****
So if I were in MacPhail’s situation I would be holding out for a talent package now that is pretty comparable to what I could expect by holding on to him until June. If I can get someone such as the Mariners to bite, that’s great. I just got full value while passing off the risk that he gets injured before the trade deadline. Otherwise I just wait and let the market continue to come to me.
I don’t think that’s true. The return on Bedard for a full year is far higher than in a mid-year deal.
Further, while now there are a set of teams that expect to be contenders (and will be) and some teams that will also be legitimately contending and in the market, right now no one knows — the pool of teams that think they might compete is far larger than the ones that will actually be in the market later, if that makes sense.
For instance, the M’s now think maybe Bedard puts them into the playoffs and contention. It’s unlikely they’ll still think that at the trade deadline if they’re five games back from a solid Angels team and ten out of the wild card spot. There are a lot of teams like that.
There hasn’t been a deadline haul in years near the one they’d get now.
#84:
I don’t think you can simply look at the pool of teams who think they might compete as the players. The pool is the teams who think they might compete and for whom Bedard would make a significant difference. That pool is further thinned by removing another set of teams who assess their opportunities more akin to the analysis that you and Dave have provided. That is, there may be teams for whom Bedard would make a difference, but their prospects are not sufficiently certain for them to be willing to be serious about getting Bedard now.
Come mid-June, however, the setting will be different. Prospects will have developed (or not), pitchers will have gone on the DL, etc. You would likely see a different set of teams competing, and the urgencies for the teams involved could be very different.
If Bedard continues to perform, getting him for a 1-1/2 years (and not just the balance of one season) will be quite valuable because the team will have likely opened a two-year playoff window – for seasons 2008 and 2009.
If they can open a 2008-2009 playoff window with a mid-June trade, they get almost the same value as if they had Bedard the entire season.
I think that for a savvy team the calculus for completing a Bedard-type of deal changes significantly mid-season if they know the deal would enable them to contend for two seasons, versus the off-season when the teams hopes the deal would enable them to contend for two seasons.
DMZ-
I agree that teams get more if they acquire their “missing” piece for the whole year…that just makes sense…
But in Bedard’s case, it’s a little different, because if you acquire him at the deadline, you also have in under control for the next year…
It seems that most deadline deals are for players that are at the end of a contract, so the team acquiring them only gets them for the “playoff push”…
So Bedard might get you more at the trading deadline than your average “rent-a-player”
So Bedard might get you more at the trading deadline than your average “rent-a-playerâ€
Yep – and if that deal still sets you up for playoff contention in 2008 and 2009, you get virtually the same value as if you had done the deal before ST of 2008. But your risk of doing the deal is lessened.
That analysis is a simple extension of the logic espoused by Dave and Derek. If Bedard is worth more “as the last piece” for a contender, for a team that properly factors risk he’s got to be worth more if the team knows it’s a contender than if the team thinks it might be a contender.
Please, Please, Please do not trade Adam Jones.
Arthur Rhodes signed with the Mariners today. Is this a contingency plan for Sherrill or just temporary protection against bully Omar Vizquel during Spring Training?
I still don’t see it, and here’s why: right now, who think they’re potentially contending and could conceivably think themselves into the market for Bedard? Let’s say it’s:
AL:
M’s (West)
Chicago/Detroit (Central)
Toronto (East)
NL:
Philly/Mets (East)
Cubs/St. Louis/Cincy, maybe even Houston (Central)
LA? (West)
At the trade deadline next year, at the very least you’re going to lose three of those teams, and probably four. Teams five games out aren’t going to pay the price the Orioles are demanding now on the off chance they’ll make it up in the last bit of the season.
For every other bidder off that list that might drop you, you have to figure that someone else is contending — and those aren’t teams who’ll trade prospects. If the Twins are in the Central/Wild Card race, they won’t be trading four guys for Bedard, and neither will Oakland, or the Nationals (well, maybe the Nationals) or the Marlins, Milwaukee probably wouldn’t, Pittsburgh definitely wouldn’t, Arizona won’t, the Padres are unlikely to pay that price.
I don’t see a way that at mid-season there are additional bidders who can pay the current price for Bedard and will be in contention. They might be better off shopping him again in the next-offseason at that point.
I thought Detroit had already sold their farm for Cabrera/Willis. Who would they have left to offer for Bedard?
Granted, I would’ve much rather have Cabrera/Willis for what the M’s are offering for Bedard.
I don’t think we actually know what the M’s are offering for Bedard. Of the rumored packages, I’d rather have Jones, Triunfel, Tillman and Sherrill than Cabrera and Willis. I don’t know that I’d like the idea of trading Triunfel and Morrow for Cabrera and Willis. Jones and Tillman for that matter. Cabrera is a subpar defensive 3B (though might do well in a transition to 1B) and Willis a high risk medium reward pitcher. Though I’d like Cabrera as the DH, I think he would probably mind being off the field.
Trading for these 2 is a decent move for a team who needs a 5th pitcher and some offensive punch next year to put them over the top. The M’s do not need another 5th pitcher and adding a solid offensive punch would not put the M’s over the top. Without entirely upgrading the defensive sore spots (which the M’s seem to not be doing anything about at all) and adding a pitcher at least as decent as Willis they really have no chance next year.
I think it could have been possible to construct a team starting at the beginning of the offseason that would contend for years, including next, while making a move for Cabrera and Willis. Problem is they’d have to have added at least 1 player who’s already signed elsewhere, be adamant about moving 2 players that they don’t seem even willing to who wouldn’t fit into that plan and it’s far too late at this point. Cabrera doesn’t fill a need here unless he’s willing (and able) to move to 1B and Sexson is gone or Vidro’s on the bench, Ibanez is traded and Cabrera’s willing to DH.
This doesn’t mean I’d rather have Bedard for the same pieces, but there’s no reason to choose the lesser of 2 evils when no evil is necessary. I choose the good, patient plan.
I realized while rereading that just now that it sounds in spots like I think that Cabrera and Willis are still available. Yes, I know that they are not. I was mostly attempting to think from the time just before that trade was made.