USSM on KJR returns
Dave · January 16, 2008 at 12:30 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Not sure what I think about the Erik Bedard rumors? Haven’t heard me profess my love for Adam Jones’ defensive abilities lately? Need to hear someone’s voice crack on the radio as they talk too fast? You’re in luck, because I’m back on the air with the Groz at 2:20 pm this afternoon on KJR.
As always, you can listen live online or just turn your less fancy radio down the dial.
I listened to the broadcast live and just listened to the archived version at kjr.com. Seems like the conversation has been edited. Live, Dave was talking about if Sherrill goes the team can just about roll over in the late innings– he said something that I swear sounded like the f-bomb. My 13 year-old daughter even said “Language!” when we heard it (driving in the car). When I tried to figure out what it was he said by listening to the archived version, that part of the conversation magically doesn’t exist. Was I dreaming?
I don’t think Dave swears. He’s just a clean-living kinda guy.
im pretty sure he said Buck not f**K i thought the same thing for a second, unless it was another part of the interview cuz i thought he said S**t to but ive heard dave before a few times and he talks so fast that i think no one is ever really sure………
Dave is like “Louie Louie” — people are sure he said things he really didn’t. Heck, just look at some of the comments after one of his posts here on USSM.
man, I love reading you Dave but I think your position is way out of whack here.
Dave Says:
I obviously love Triunfel, but the gap between what we could be and what is now is still huge. If the Orioles want Morrow, Triunfel, Balentien, and Tillman for Bedard, I make that deal – that’s a five to six win upgrade to the ‘08 roster, which is enough to put them within real striking distance of the Angels.
After all the posturing about how ridiculous it would be to trade Jones straight up for Bedard and that adding anything else would be ridiculous, you are saying now that if you substitute Morrow, Triu AND Balentien for Jones you would make the deal. 😯 WOW!
OK, so the difference between Jones and Wlad is apparently Morrow & Triu. Good to know I understand your position better now. I mean, I know you are not a big fan of Morrow but come on.
The difference between Jones and Wlad is enormous – those who think they have similar value are wildly wrong.
I think those who don’t understand the difference between Wlad and AJ don’t get how valuble defense is. Not to mention the different offensive upside of the 2 players. Think Andrew Jones or Mike Cameron (AJ) VS Jay Buhner or Jeromy Burnitz (Wlad).
Aww damnit. I thought this was for today! Apparently I’m a bit on the slow side…
So would you rather make the Bedard trade as you suggested, or something realistic for one of the Devil Rays pitchers? (Wlad by himself was it?)
Also Dave, do you consider Wlad in his current state a possible upgrade to Vidro at DH?
Jones and Wlad are similiar in bat with most saying Wlad’s bat will be better than Jones. Nobody would argue that Wlad’s defense or speed would be comparable to Jones though. Church will even testify that Wlads bat will be better than Jones in terms of power #’s, etc.
I’d back this plan – trading Jones for Bedard(not the whole deal obviously but just the main parts) and giving Reed the RF spot next year. He was our CF and is a pretty good defender – he’ll run everything down out there. Give Wlad another year in AAA and then let him play RF in 09 – his bat will make you not regret trading away Jones. Jones will not come out next year hitting his peak – he’s not an Arod or Griff with just flat out god-given ability – he will take atleast a year probably 2 to get up to his 25+/100+ stats. Jones would probably hit somewhere like 20/80 which Reed could come close to – thing obviously is thats where Reed maxes out so for 1 year it’s a good substitute as we get the same defense and same bat but now have Bedard as our #1.
WRT the conversation on-air, I’m glad Dave led off with a discussion of the formidable competition outside the AL West. There are going to be people who say the addition of Bedard (even at the cost of Jones) may be all it takes to overcome the Angels and win the division; after that it’s the playoffs and as everybody knows once you’re there it’s a crapshoot, anything can happen (just ask Beane), yadda yadda yadda.
But the postseason last year should have made it painfully clear that right now in the AL at least, it’s not a crapshoot. To overcome the Red Sox and Indians (and now the Yankees and probably Detroit) a team has to be good. Being lucky isn’t going to cut it. Having just two great pitchers isn’t going to cut it (though the league’s bend-over-for-Fox stupidly drawn-out scheduling helps). Having a mediocre offense isn’t going to cut it. Being lucky combined with two great pitchers and a mediocre offense clearly isn’t going to cut it, and that’s the best case scenario for the M’s with Bedard.
spar123 wrote:
“Jones and Wlad are similiar in bat with most saying Wlad’s bat will be better than Jones. Nobody would argue that Wlad’s defense or speed would be comparable to Jones though. Church will even testify that Wlads bat will be better than Jones in terms of power #’s, etc.
I disagree with this. I think Jones’ bat will be better than Wlad’s, too. Wlad will possibly hit for HR power earlier than Jones, but the whole package (gap power, OBP, lower K-rate, fewer strikeouts) with Jones will be better both earlier and later, IMO. YMMV, but I don’t think there is quite the consensus about Wlad that you say there is…..
Well, Pete, I’d give him this much credit at least – the idea that Balentien might become a better hitter than Jones is more plausible than the notion he pairs it with. Reed as a good substitute playing full-time in a corner outfield spot, even for just a year? No thanks.
Nice straw man Dave, good way to avoid answering the question. I didn’t say that Jones and Wlad are equivalent, but for you to insinuate that Jones = Wlad + Morrow + Triu is ridiculous.
Dave, I value your opinion and enjoy your work but I am trying to understand where you are coming from on this one because it seems a little out there.
and a follow up question: If the M’s got Scott back in a deal for Jones, would that make it more palatable for you and for the M’s chances in your eyes?
Just for the sake of the discussion on Wlad Vs. AJ I went ahead and ran their Minor League #rs removing each of their respective rookie league stats. I believe most of us will agree that rookie league stats are next to worthless.
AJ .291 .484 .857
Wlad .273 .503 .877
I have to admit this raw data makes them look closer then I thought. Still have to account for the difference in defense…
Bilbo, first off I’d suggest you look at the numbers Dave put on these players in the Future Forty. He gives Jones a present value of 7, meaning he thinks Jones already is as good as Morrow, Balentien, and Tillman could ever become, even if they completely fulfill their potential. He would then have to discount their values (Triunfel also), because he evaluates them as being significantly riskier. The discount would need to consider both “Risk” and the gap between “Present” and “Reward.”
If I was using those values, I think it certainly would be possible to look at Jones as being more valuable right now than the others put together. Maybe you disagree with those values, but I don’t think it’s as ridiculous as you suggest.
Well, here is another shocker for you Dave…
Balentien will overtake Jones as a MLB player.
Why?
Superior plate discipline, superior power, superior base running skills, good defensive speed, and a stronger arm than he is given credit for.
It is possible that Balentien is just a smarter ballplayer than Jones.
I would love to see Jones and Balentien flanking Ichiro.
Balentien, with his career 195:547 BB:K rate, is better than Jones, criticized for being 154:442? I don’t even know where to start with refuting that defensive claim.
I don’t get it. Because Wlad’s a year older?
Wlad may turn out to be a better player than Jones. I don’t see any reason to believe that’s likely to happen, though.
Lets look at the last two years, and maybe you will see what I am talking about:
Jones: 184 SO’s, 64 BB’s
Balentien: 245 SO’s, 124 BB’s
Balentien has more AB’s in those two years because Jones was called up in both years.
However, in Jones’ two cups of coffee with the M’s, his SO to BB rate was alarming:
2006: 22 SO’s to 2 BB’s
2007: 21 SO’s to 4 BB’s.
Balentien’s eye seems to be improving at a better rate than Jones.
We could have one of the best outfields in the majors for years to come, if the M’s don’t screw it up.