22 Things I Believe About This Trade
1. Erik Bedard is awesome – one of the five best pitchers in the American League.
2. Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are both candidates for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award.
3. Two great pitchers and mediocre everything else is not a formula for consistent success.
4. The Mariners are going to miss Adam Jones. Badly.
5. The Mariners right fielder in 2008 is going to suck.
6. The Mariners outfield defense is going to suck.
7. In 2009, we’re going to be hunting for two new corner outfielders.
8. The Angels are still the most likely team in baseball to win their division.
9. The Mariners improved themselves by, at most, 2-3 wins in 2008 with this deal.
10. If Erik Bedard isn’t healthy all year, we’ll be analyzing the new GM in 10 months.
11. The Mariners wouldn’t have made this trade if they understood how to value defense.
12. I will run out of analogies for this trade before spring training starts.
13. The total amount of talent given up will rival only the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002.
14. The biggest loser in this deal will be Jarrod Washburn.
15. This trade cements the fact that Brandon Morrow will never start a game for the M’s.
16. The idea that the M’s valued Morrow over Jones is so ridiculous, I can’t even fathom it.
17. The Mariners are now paying Horacio $2.75 million to fight for the role of long reliever.
18. In July, the M’s will be talking about trading for a veteran relieve to improve the ‘pen.
19. Geoff Baker and I will never agree on any of this.
20. Jeff Sullivan and I will agree on all of this.
21. I won’t care much over losing Chris Tillman. I will care deeply over losing Carlos Triunfel.
22. The M’s have, once again, taken a bad path to a good goal. It will, once again, not work.
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Any picks for our new right fielder? Wilkerson, Gonzalez, Lofton?
Man, Geoff Jenkins would have been a good signing.
Such predictionary virility! We await your next quatrain with bated breath, o Nostradavemus.
Please tell me that #21 is just you guessing Dave and that Bavasi really didn’t trade Triunfel. Please…
Dare I say this trade has been met with disdain?
I don’t think the M’s value Morrow over Jones, I think the O’s valued Jones over Morrow. I would do the same, but I still think the M’s get away with murder if it’s essentially Jones for Bedard. Bedard will put the M’s over the hump for years to come, and who knows what Jones will do. All we know about him is he had good PCL numbers, along with the rest of the universe, and average MLB numbers. He’s young, and there is upside, but who knows?
On the M’s side of this, the best commment was #10. Injuries. Bedard is Jamie Moyer, plus power and more talent. But I worry about that power from a lefty of his type. He tends to get injured for short periods of time.
The pessimism is so thick right now. At least this makes us better for the next 2 years. We don’t know that we won’t be able to sign Bedard to an extension. We’ll see if his stance on testing the market doesn’t change when he plays for an organization that treats him better and when he plays for a winner. It would be nice to see a little optimism for once. It’s done, let’s move on and not always assume the absolute worst.
Bedard is Jamie Moyer?
That might be the worst comparison in the history of mankind.
What a horrible trade. Ichiro must be regretting signing long term at this point. Can you point me to a good Oakland A’s blog? I think it’s time to start following/rooting for a new team.
Triunfel’s involved???
#7
Bill Bavasi is Theo Epstein.
Wow at those calling this a horrible trade. We got BEDARD, folks! A horrible trade would’ve been AJ for Javier Vazquez.
Question about Bedard’s numbers.
He’s not a big groundball guy, so he should be saved a bit by Safeco (pending the outfield defense isn’t horrible, too bad it will), but he had a 77% LOB rate last year. Does he miss enough bats to sustain where he’s at right now, or is he due for a bit of a regression?
How does the O’s defense the last few years (I know they’ve had a lot of Markakis, Patterson, and Payton, little bit of Conine and Gibbons thrown in), compared to what the M’s will throw out there?
No sense looking back, as there’s too much stirring around to say it’s gonna be a team without Bedard, so we might as well analyze what we’re gonna have.
The pessimism is so thick right now.
For years, the ignorant masses have called us pessimists who hate the organization. Through it all, we’ve been right about almost everything, and the team has failed spectacularly.
You’d think you might eventually decide that we know what we’re talking about, and that it’s not pessimism to be able to identify a bad move when it happens.
If Bavasi gave up Jones, Tillman, Triunfel, and Sherrill, he is the biggest dupe in the history of dupes.
What a horrible trade. Ichiro must be regretting signing long term at this point. Can you point me to a good Oakland A’s blog? I think it’s time to start following/rooting for a new team.
My new teams are the Rays and the Tigers. Two teams going in different directions, but I agree with many of their choices.
The Rays are loading up on young talent, have done some good work to sure up their defense and pitching, and look to be stellar in a few years (pending they get a good return for Kazmir and/or Crawford when time comes).
The Tigers went balls out, kind of like the M’s, but actually have a shot to do what they’ve told themselves they are going to do.
I was so happy when I got in the car about 30 minutes ago, and found my radio playing the sunday hot stove show, and Glasgow talking about Adam Jones teling everyoine he’d been told to report for a physical.
crap.
just how does a pitcher giving you maybe 4-5 more wins compensate for no offense or defense?
The reason i love this trade so much is number 2. this will be a 1-2 punch to compete with sabathia-carmona, beckett-dice-k, and others.
I also am confused on why everyone seems to think that bedard wont help us in the long run as well. his numbers have been on the rise ever since his rookie year, and we are catching him just at the right time.
And on Jones. I agree that he is a good talent,but i honestly dont see him ever being any better than a torii hunter, and thats a generous comparison. I would take bedard any day.
1. No trade confirmed.
2. to Mr. Egaas: you are right about Bedard. But his strength is K’s. He paints the outside corner and jams inside, just like Moyer, but with heat.
He is a strikeout machine, and if he’s an M, I’ll be making my trips over the mountains more often to watch him set down AL West opponents. Fans will love the guy.
Bedard + Felix = unbeatable in a 3 game series.
Jones may very well be a better hitter than Torri Huinter right now.
You guys are out of control. And this is all without knowing for sure who the other players are. Most are upset even if it were just Jones. 6 yrs of Jones or guaranteed two years of Bedard is an easy choice for me. The sky is falling mentality is getting real old. Especially when you just traded for a bona fide ace. One of the top 5 pitchers in the entire AL and you are assured you have him for two years…possibly more. For a big giant maybe. Jones is a very nice prospect, but he is still just that…a prospect. With no pitch recognition by the way. Big win for the M’s in this deal as long as Clement isnt included. My summer nights just got a lot later on the East Coast due to this trade.
New rule – if you write that Jones is “just a prospect”, we’re going to send a swarm of killer bees to your house.
Don’t be an idiot. Jones is not just a prospect.
#20– Jones is not a prospect. He is your starting right fielder.
Dave – could you give a brief explanation of why Bedard only provides 2-3 wins?
I think it’s needed for some…
I spelled everything wrong.
Blowers thinks that this would immediately make them a contender, and with only the Angels to compete with, the M’s would be on their way.
sigh.
Bedard over Ramirez/Morrow/Rowland-Smith/whoever: +5 wins.
Wilkerson/Lofton/Green/whoever over Jones: -2 wins.
O’Flaherty over Sherrill: -.5 wins.
Ramirez/Rhodes/whoever over O’Flaherty: -.5 wins.
20
It’s like trading your wife and kids for a fling with [some hot temptress]– you’re going to be at square one when it’s over with.
Like when the Mets traded Lastings Milledge, they were not trading a prospect, but their starting right fielder (rightfully in 2007, as well). Jones will probably be significantly better, but that trade still ranks worse than this one.
Why does everyone think the Angels are such a slam dunk? Their rotation is now worse than the M’s, the bullpen is probably not as good, Guerrero is always a big injury risk (remember the playoffs last year?), their outfield will have a ton of lil Sarge/Garrett Anderson/Torii Hunter OBP goodness, their defense will stink, they had a number of players over their head last year (Reggie Freaking Willits) and they are counting on a lot of uncertainty at the infield corners. Oh, and they lack depth. I’ll be surprised if they win 90 games.
We don’t know who is in this deal, so it’s a little hard to pass judgement. If it is truly Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, and negligible, then bully for the M’s. That’s a steal compared to the packages bouncing around for a year of Santana. Jones might turn into Chet Lemon or even Lou Brock, but he might never learn to hit an MLB curve ball, either. He sure hasn’t yet. And Chris Tillman is like banking on a tech stock, high risk/high return. Trading Sherrill at peak value is a shrewd move, especially when it is to a team that needs a lefty specialist like a third nut.
#13 – You’ve been right about almost everything? Wow! That’s a heck of an assessment. Actually, I think the biggest issue with your analysis on this site is an inability to recognize that there is a lot of uncertainty in any business proposition, including baseball. Just to grab an obvious example, don’t make me remind you how much you hated drafting Jones in the first place.
Dave you are right, calling him ” just a prospect ” was too vague. I also called him a very nice prospect, you left that part out though. I guess calling me an idiot is easier though. I have concerns about his pitch recognition and his propensity to K…a lot. He is a very nice prospect. But its not like Longoria, Bruce or Gordon were just traded. At least you dont have to watching him flailing away at sliders in the left hand hitters batters box this year.
20- “Aces” are overrated. All that matters in run prevention, and defense is a part of that. The M’s defense is going to make their starters look bad, maybe not quite to the degree that TB’s defense hindered their pitchers in 2007, but it’ll be ugly to watch.
If anything, there are more “Maybes” attached to Bedard. Bedard has never reached 200 IP and only started 30+ games once. This team has zero picthing or hitting depth. All it takes is one significant injury to ruin the season and this trade.
Given that the M’s aren’t winning anything in the near term – or the far term for that matter – I think I’d have rather watched Jones for 6 years than Bedard for 2. The sad reality is that they would have missed the playoffs with Jones and without Bedard – and now they’re going to do the same thing with the situation reversed. Plus, MLB Extra Innings will allow me to still watch Jones develop if I’d like to.
I think the real question is how much more is it going to take for you guys to start rooting for a real major league franchise?
#13: Snelling and Fruto for Vidro?
He didn’t call you an idiot. He said “don’t be an idiot.”
#27
I disagree. We are talking two guaranteed years. And probably 2 guaranteed years of cy caliber type pitching. Not too mention the strong possibility of him re-signing long term in SEA. VS the potential of 6 very good years of Jones. Again, no guarantees.
[yep, we're fans - now go away]
35: I must be missing the “strong possibility” of Bedard re-upping with the M’s. Everything I’ve seen or heard has him wanting to test the FA market after ‘09, and he’d be rather silly not to.
Bedard posted those great numbers with Tejeda and Mora on the left side of his former infield. You dont think pitching in Safeco and being out of the AL EAST will jump his numbers even moreso?
#31, I will not engage in any debate that has you taking the stance that Bedard has more maybes attached to him than Adam Jones.
Bedard over Ramirez: +9 wins (Bedard was an 8 win player in 26 starts, this assumes he misses a couple again)
Adam Jones will likely be at best a 4 win player next year. He’s still got some learning to do, both at the plate and in the field. Fire in a replacement level player or Wlad, and you are maybe 4 to the worse. Replace him with Lofton (a 4+ win player last year) or the guy you get for Washburn (you KNOW that’s the next deal coming), and maybe you are close to even here.
Sherrill to RRS? .5? RRS to O’Flaherty? Are you kidding me? Hell, the M’s got way more than they should have for a scrap heap pickup. Trade him before he ends up back there.
#37. “Strong possibility” maybe was aggresive, but I would think the M’s got a ballpark for Bedards potential extentsion dollars before they made the deal.
I will not engage in any debate that has you taking the stance that Bedard has more maybes attached to him than Adam Jones.
Why not? Bedard is extremely injury prone. Players that have as much success as Jones in AA and AAA at such a young age usually become at least good major league players.
Can people please stop suggesting Jones won’t be good because he hasn’t proved anything in the majors?
First two seasons:
Jones: 139 AB, .230/.267/.353
Player X: 196 AB, .224/.268/.352
Thank goodness Seattle was smart in 1996…
Ever heard of regression to the mean, Matt? The 2008 Mariners aren’t replacing the 2007 Horacio Ramirez with the 2007 Erik Bedard. Also, your definition of replacement level is way, way too low.
If you think Bedard is worth 9 wins to the 2008 Mariners, then I don’t care what you think.
pleaseohplease.
“There are signs the deal is getting closer — such as Jones telling reporters that he’s headed to Baltimore for a physical — but late word Sunday night is there’s still some internal debate in Baltimore over the deal. Club owner Peter Angelos is famous for nixing deals involving his best players.”
40: I obviously don’t have the faith which you seem to have that Bavasi would only make this deal with a rough estimate towards what Bedard would re-sign for. I’d lean more towards him just making the deal and hoping to woo Bedard over the next two years.
Bedard 2007 (pitching in Camden Yards): 221 K, 57 BB. Enough said. Don’t know why there is so much gnashing of teeth over Adam Jones. Put aside the emotion and look at it. Bedard for Jones is a steal for the M’s. If Truinfel is in there it’s more balanced. If Truinfel and Clement is in there it’s tipping – but don’t know why the O’s would be hung up on Clement when they just drafted Wieters, the best C prospect in baseball.
41,
60 starts the past two seasons. I’ll take that over all the maybes that Jones has that are inherent with any prospect, nevermind one that has the holes Jones has.
Put aside the emotion and look at it.
Yeah, uh…. there have been some monster posts on this topic on USSM already. I don’t know if you missed it or what, but it’s not as if this is an unexamined issue.
[and goodbye]
Swarm of bees, pete, swarm of bees. Your fears about Jones are ill founded and based out of a poor understanding of player valuation.
I approve of the swarm of bees solution.
I am SO TIRED of people who think they are sharing some unique, undiscovered information by pointing out that not every young player lives up to their potential.
DMZ – I’m new. Point taken. Will watch the trade unfold or not.
A few Hardball Times stats on Bedard:
FIP of 3.33 (analogous to ERA), 3rd in the AL and only .17 over his actual ERA (which indicates that overall he probably was that good).
30% K rate, which was the highest in baseball.
He does give up the gopher (13% of his OF flies were HRs) but, as has been noted, Safeco should help with that. He’s actually slightly a groundball pitcher (GB/LD/FB rates were 48/17/35 vs league averages of 43/19/38), which is too bad considering that Jose Lopez and Richie Sexson are awful.
One negative-rebound note: he gave up about half as many runs as the average pitcher gave up on ground balls last year, which might have been due to a good Orioles infield (teammate Jeremy Guthrie also had a super-low rate), but doesn’t tend to be a sustainable ability from one season to the next.
Overall, though, I think Bedard for Jones and Sherrill and some prospects is not quite as terrible a move as Dave Cameron makes it out to be. I think it’s a lot closer to “trade a strength for a huge weakness” than it is a “win right NOW and damn the future” move. I doubt it’s going to get anywhere near the Colon trade (in fact, I think that’s a laughable comparison), and I think that worrying that the M’s may BE WASTING HORACIO RAMIREZ OH NO is more than a little bit silly.
#31 – Aces are overrated? The M’s just got an 8 or 9 win player (yeah, I know, he could get injured. So could Jones) who is probably only going to make $6 or 7 mil next year. That’s an incredible value for the franchise.
#32 – The M’s rotation next year will be Bedard, Felix, Batista, Silva, and Washburn. How many teams in the game can top that? Yeah, this might be still around an 88-90 win team, but that might be enough in a pretty tough and even AL next year.
Boston and NY are starting to decline. TB is still on the way up. The A’s and the Rangers are AT LEAST two years away. The Angels are good, not great. I absolutely love the idea to make a run right now.
Without knowing the final details, I don’t want to compare it to any particular deal, but at the high level, the Colon analogy is quite apt — it’s a team paying a huge price in what some would call unproven prospects for a starter they expected would take them to the playoffs, though it was even at the time clear that it was a longshot.
The biggest difference, as Dave pointed out to me, is you get two years of Bedard. But in terms of what the Orioles would net, we’ll see, but it’s already a haul.
I just heard about this and everyone that is a Mariners fan better pray that they have a long term offer for Bedard or this trade was for nothing!
#13. Right about most everything? Dave, I assume you are spewing hyperbole, yes? Because as much as I enjoy your work I read here for years that Jones was an awful pick that wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans.
I don’t agree with #20.
I would like this trade if we get Jones back when Bedard dosen’t re-sign in 2 years.
I apologize if I said anything that you think was an attack to the person. I thought the Colon analogy was laughable, not that David Cameron himself is laughable. If that wasn’t clear, I am making it clear now. I think the Colon trade is a very bad comparison because I just don’t see it as very likely that Jones and Sherrill and co. will get anywhere near Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. I mean, Adam Jones is a nice prospect, but…
I also think that it’s not really correct to just look at it as 2 years of Bedard. It’s 2 years of Bedard with a strong possibility of re-signing him. And if he doesn’t sign and leaves in a couple years, he’ll almost certainly be good enough to net a draft pick, right?
If the following gets edited or deleted, I pray to the baseball Gods that at least a few people I’m aiming it at see it.
I’m officially sick and damn tired of people calling those of us who oppose this trade one of the following: Negative, pessimistic, not real fans, etc.
To those of you who have, I’d like to offer you my ass for a firm long kiss.
I’ve probably been to more home games, watched more away games on TV/mlb.tv/gamecast/my phone while on a date than 95% of the people who post here, possibly authors included.
I don’t claim to know more about how to analyze talent than anyone, because my skills there are admittedly moderate. But I take great exception to people calling out our fanhood because we, heaven forbid, want our team to make what we see as smart moves. It’s not only not true, but an ignorant insult.
I’m generally don’t name call, or speak this way. So, apologies to those who didn’t need to see this. Time to go take a cold shower.
Actually, “have you ever heard of regression to the mean, Matt” is precisely the definition of ad hominum:
“An ad hominem argument, also known as argumentum ad hominem (Latin: “argument to the man”, “argument against the man”) consists of replying to an argument or factual claim by attacking or appealing to a characteristic or belief of the person making the argument or claim, rather than by addressing the substance of the argument or producing evidence against the claim. The process of proving or disproving the claim is thereby subverted, and the argumentum ad hominem works to change the subject.”
Listen, fellas, I’m not trying to claim that the M’s have taken a big risk here. I’m just making the point that the AL is much more up for grabs than you all are giving it credit for, and that Bedard is a hell of a pitcher. Furthermore, Adam Jones could very easily fall into the Jacque Jones/Jose Cruz Jr./Geoff Jenkins level of second tier outfielders. A good player, not a guy you’d jump off the Aurora Bridge when the team trades.
Seriously, if you think Erik Bedard is a nine win player, no one should care what you think. It’s not ad hominem to point out that your math sucks. For that to be true, with replacement level set at 6.00 RA, you’d have to be projecting Bedard to post a 1.93 RA in 200 innings. 1.93 RA – not ERA. A nine win pitcher would have to post something like a 1.50 ERA.
Either your replacement level is way too low (based on calling Jones a 4 win player, it is) or you’re so overly optimistic about Bedard that your opinion is invalid. I’m going with A.
I think #11 is the most telling critique of this trade. I am still amazed that the M’s will allow Ibanez to play LF.
Where does “strong possibility” come from? Right now all anyone can say is “maybe.”
Okay, so call me ignorant (I’m new to posting here – I can take it!)
What would have to happen for this trade to not end up sucking? I realize that it will be impossible to fully judge until we see just what Jones ends up doing in his 6 years or whatever under club control…but hypothetically, what kind of performance from the Mariners would justify this trade?
Making the playoffs in ‘08? ‘09? Would they have to do well in the playoffs?
I just want some kind of idea of what you guys are hoping for in a best-case scenario.
Churchill at PI is hearing Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio.
Really no words need to be said.
The tone of this thread needs to turn around in a hurry.
If you want to disagree with the authors’ evaluation of the trade, that’s fine, but you don’t get to come here and act like a jerk while you do it.
And everything Bedard’s said that I know of says he wants to become a free agent (and why wouldn’t he?). I can’t think of any pitcher in recent years facing the potential pay off that Bedard is not going to free agency.
#11 is quite frankly a curious argument for a stat guy to put forward. Defense has its value. It tends to be grossly overrated by non-statheads. The M’s outfield was not very good last year anyway. Anyway, isn’t Wladimir Balentin about ready by now?
#62 — The best years of Jacques Jones and Geoff Jenkins were pretty good, and AJ should be at least that good. The point isn’t that Bedard isn’t good, its that RF for the M’s is going to be bad (offensively and defensively) and expensive. Jones was good and cheap.
If the M’s had given up players not expected to contribute in 2008 I would be enthusiastic about this trade, but I don’t know where they will find someone who will perform as well as AJ most likely would have.
Churchill at PI is hearing Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio.
At least it’s not Triunfel, but if they are getting Butler and the Mick, we’d better get Luke Scott back.
Sadly, I thought I’d jump onto USSMariner for my once-a-weekend check of what usually consists of no updated posts. I expect to see the same post from Friday up on Sunday afternoon, and usually close my browser as quickly as I opened it.
You can imagine, then, how much more poignantly one feels the iron skillet to the face when one least expects it.
For 2 weeks now, I’ve been saying – the closer we are to Spring Training, the better off we are. People will start reporting here in short order, and not too many deals get made that close to the season, right? Maybe Bavasi’s bravado on being sure he could get something done was just talk . . .well shit.
I will look forward to 2 starts in every trip through the rotation now. I will pray the days I have lined up for Spring Training will include some quality Bedard time. But, just the same, I will curse the name of Bill Bavasi each time our inept corner outfielders watch a ball that Adam Jones would have made a nice play on sail past them for a double. When they complain about an anemic offense, a line-up lacking speed, or wish for a true “ignitor” to get a rally going, I’ll mumble about AJ under my breath. I’ll want him to punish us each time Baltimore faces us, but just to the point of keeping the decision fresh in our collective memory, but not quite enough to lose us the game.
I want this team to win, and am saddened that it has made that goal more difficult.
I only gain hope from knowing that, if things go as expected, Bavasi will be gone, and Geoff Baker will deepen his education. And there is the hope of every true baseball fan – that the team will inexplicably do what it should not be able to and give us some games worth watching that also mean something late in the season . . that and for like 4 or 5 Angels’ players to get injured out of the box.
The big question now is who plays right field. Of all the free agents Lofton, Patterson, Wilkerson, etc. Who is the strongest defensively?
Also, have the mariners been involved any any trade talks for an RF? (preemptively)
Patterson would be an interesting fit. Lets not forget about his numbers from a couple years back..
RF? Stick a young guy out there. Any defensive guys in the system. M’s can win some 3-2 games…
I resent that. There are 4,663 posts here since 4/11/2003, many of them on weekends.
I think the Colon trade is a very bad comparison because I just don’t see it as very likely that Jones and Sherrill and co. will get anywhere near Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. I mean, Adam Jones is a nice prospect, but…
Well, Jones has a pretty darned good chance of being at least as good as Sizemore, who is, at best, an average defender in center and who currently sports a 3-year average OPS of .865. Jones profiles as a very good defender (much better than Sizemore) and likely has the power to make up for his trailing of walk ability to near or better the OPS%. As for Phillips and Lee, it certainly depends on if Triunfel is included or not, but Tillman could definitely be Lee’s equal or better (not that hard at this point), and Triunfel, if included, could be better than all involved. I’ll wait until I see the final package, but it’s not like our prospects pale in comparison to those that Cleveland got in that deal. In fact, our minor league system is fairly robust right now. If Bavasi could only look out for the future of the club over his own future in Seattle, I think this team could be pretty darned special in a couple of years. And THEN they’d be in a good position to deal some youth for stud talent. As it stands, most of the talent in our system is very young which makes them high-risk in the eyes of the front office. In two years, it may be possible that we could have netted a Bedard-like pitcher for any of the ’spects alone. I think you’re doing our minor league system a great disservice by saying the Colon deal comp is laughable.
Personally, I think the Morrow-is-untouchable mantra may have cost us BIGTIME in the end. I’d much rather have dealt Morrow than lose a guy like Triunfel. But whatever. I’ll wait till the final verdict to say any more.
Well, I guess on the bright side, we won’t have to pull out our hair when Mac sits Jones because “he’s just a kid and needs to (fill in the blank with your favorite excuse).”
The M’s don’t value defense of youth. If Jones was a 32 year old average defender, this would be a pretty good trade for the M’s. But if Jones was a 32 year old average defender, the O’s wouldn’t have made it. Hmmm, we’re dumber than Baltimore. And they have Ace of Cakes too…
So, do you expect Morrow goes to Tacoma to work on starting, or (more likely) heads back to the pen and thus the M’s fullfill Dave’s prophecy of Morrow never starting for the Mariners?
I can’t imagine that a Kenny Lofton would be that expensive at this point. Granted, you’re banking on Bavasi understanding that a guy like that still has value to a team, which I am not optimistic about, but I also am of the belief that you should evaluate each move a team makes irrespective of everything else.
Also, do the Mariners really need to worry all that much about cheap? It’s always good for a team to do things that make good economic sense, but these are not the Oakland A’s here. The Mariners do have some room to make mistakes with money and survive. That doesn’t make the Bedard trade a “good” one in and of itself, but it doesn’t make it the most horrible thing ever seen.
And I’m sorry, but I have to go back to that Horacio Ramirez comment (point #17). You guys have to understand sunk cost by now, right? It doesn’t *matter* whether or not Horacio Ramirez is making $2.75M a year or $27.5M a year. If he’s good enough to start, he should start; if he’s not, he should not. Period. Forget about the salary. That money is already gone and won’t come back by putting him into more situations where he’ll lose the team games as well as money.
OK Dave. Easy now. I pulled the 9 wins off the Baseball Prospectus site. I’m sure you spend more time thinking about this than I do, but that doesn’t seem ridiculous that he could be nearly as valuable as Ichiro next year.
Maybe Adam Jones hits .300/.360/.480 next year, and plays stellar defense. But I think he’s got two more years of learning the game ahead of him before he becomes any type of star. And really, the way this team is currently structured, do you want to be planning for a run in 2009?
Derek – if you read what Bedard has been saying, it is basically that he’s pissed the Orioles haven’t offered him any security. Face it, if you played for Baltimore, you’d be late for the door, too.
If the M’s win something in the next two years, they’ll probably sign Bedard long-term. If they don’t, well, they’d probably be better off to trade him at the 2009 break for someone else’s top outfield prospect.
The point about HoRam is not that this trade makes him a worthless $2.75m reliever, it’s that the M’s this off-season set out on a course that wound up in this situation — it’s as much about the decision to take him to arbitration as anything.
For the optimists in the crowd (both of you!), here are Zips 15% optimistic on Bedard:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_baltimore_orioles/
ERA:2.23 W:18 L:3 IP:202 H:151 BB:54 K:231 ERA+:205
The M’s have a ton of money coming off the book in the next two years. It will be interesting to see if they can pay two #1s going forward.
The M’s can dump Ramimez at 1/6th of his salary. They should, like, tomorrow.
So you took Bedard 2007 and compared it to HoRam 2007, got 90 runs, and used it as a prediction of 2008?
Just a moment to address a pet peeve – ad hominem means to focus on the arguer rather than the argument. If someone had called you ugly, slow, or had claimed that your eating habits made your judgment suspect, then these MIGHT BE ad hominem attacks. If one had said, because you are Jewish or Catholic or a Muslim, your take about baseball is incomplete – this would be ad hominem. But folks are saying the support you’ve used to make your arguments – the very claims you are making about Bedard’s worth to the team – are incorrect, probably based on a misunderstanding you have about the statistical issues involved. That’s not ad hominem, that’s the substantive response to your arguments.
I simply hate when people go around using logic terminology about which they have no clue. Lots of logic courses out there -heck you can even pull up some web material on the subject. I often find that people with no point or those who are clearly proven wrong erroneously claim an ad hominem fallacy. In the words of the immortal Inigo Montoya, “I do not think it means what you think it means.”
And I’m sorry, but I have to go back to that Horacio Ramirez comment (point #17). You guys have to understand sunk cost by now, right? It doesn’t *matter* whether or not Horacio Ramirez is making $2.75M a year or $27.5M a year. If he’s good enough to start, he should start; if he’s not, he should not. Period. Forget about the salary. That money is already gone and won’t come back by putting him into more situations where he’ll lose the team games as well as money.
Doesn’t make the past decision a right one. The M’s should have offered arbitration to Jose Guillen and not to Horacio Ramirez. Guillen would have gotten a pick (he wasn’t going to stay, everybody in the business knew he would get paid), and Ramirez isn’t worth a 25 man roster spot in the AL. Probably, not even in the NL, but many of us would prefer if he were somebody else’s problem.
[bees bees bees]
I hope the Mariners can get something for HoRam. I’m sure that’s way too much to hope for.
Oh. And as much as I will miss Jones, it’ll be exciting to have a official top of the heap type ace now.
Mr. Egaas said:
“…Churchill at PI is hearing Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio…”
Steal for the M’s. They gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly.
If the M’s win something in the next two years, they’ll probably sign Bedard long-term. If they don’t, well, they’d probably be better off to trade him at the 2009 break for someone else’s top outfield prospect.
- Huge if.
- Once again that probably is ridiculous. It’s all conjecture. What if Boston, New York or one of the LA teams match Seattle’s offer?
I don’t follow. HoRam is a horrible player whether you give him arbitration or not. If the M’s were wrong to offer that (and yes, they probably were), that was a problem with offering HoRam arbitration, not with trading for Bedard.
If you’re saying that the M’s don’t seem to have a plan, well… if the current presidential administration has taught me anything, it’s that going back on a bad deal and tacitly admitting you made a mistake before is a whole hell of a lot better than following on a wrong course because gosh darn it it’s the course you plotted out last summer.
[you really need to re-educate yourself on what ad hominem means]
HoRam is about as valuable to the M’s as a guy named Horwath (some tard, who back in June stated that we should root for the M’s to fail) is to this discussion…I really like the M’s staff.
They gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly
That’s just not true. I’m sorry. Explain to me how the team can quickly replace a prospect as highly-regarded as Adam Jones, please, because I can’t see how Bavasi could call up a team and say “hey, I just gave up the #5 prospect (or whatever BA ranks him) in a trade — can you give me #6 for some magic beans”.
“I resent that. There are 4,663 posts here since 4/11/2003, many of them on weekends.”
I should have qualified my statement by saying, “offseason weekend posts.” But you will permit me some poetic license on reality to put the pain of this moment into words, no? C’mon Derek, we should be standing together at this time, not becoming divided. That’s just what THEY want us to do . . . We must stand together on this global war against stupid front office moves.
Yes! You’re right!
I don’t see why Jones is highly regarded, as you say. Defense?
They gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly.
Yeah, what did it take for Baltimore to get those pieces? Oh, just Erik Bedard.
And really, the way this team is currently structured, do you want to be planning for a run in 2009?
Isn’t that kind of the point? The M’s are NEVER planning substantially for the future. They’re stuck in the mediocre middle, winning just enough games to lead them to believe a good move here or there could put them over the top, but never really being as close as they think they are. What that leads to is never being able to put together any kind of sustained run at true excellence.
Personally, I like the latter. It’s one of the reasons I’m a huge Seahawks fan. Right now, you know on any given year they could make a Super Bowl run. They’ve built through the draft and with young, cheap players. It’s why the Patriots have been successful.
The Mariners? They’re like the guy who spends all his disposable income and never saves any money for the long term. Sure, it’s fun today, and might even be fun for a year or two. But it can be a heck of a LOT MORE fun in 10 years if you’ll just take it in the shorts for 3 or 4.
[bees bees bees]
If we get Luke Scott, I will be happier.
While we’re discussing bad trades that have nothing to do with the Bedard move, how about Rey Quinones, Mike Trujillo, John Christenson, and Mike Brown for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen? Man, was that a bad on
93… one point I do have to give Cameron/DMZ is that the M’s really are not that close to the Angels. Yes, they only finished 7 games back. However, they did that while allowing more runs than they scored. If they stood pat, re-signed all their free agents, and performed exactly the way they did from last year to this one, they’d be more like to win 78 games than 88. I don’t think it’s wise to go into ‘08 making an honest effort to win the division, that is unless you also plan on bringing in a lot more than Erik Bedard to shore up a poor starting rotation and signing 2 or 3 more hitters to replace Guillen, Sexson, Lopez, and Vidro.
Given that Guillen is now one of the many names caught up in the Mitchell report, I don’t blame the M’s for not going after him. He had a pretty controversy-free season in 2007 but let’s not forget that this was Jose Guillen we are talking about. Given a manager who doesn’t mail it in every game a la Hargrove, he could well have one of those wonderful blow-ups that have defined his career up to this point.
If you don’t understand why Adam Jones is highly regarded, it’d be good for you to read up on him, either here (see that Future Forty link) or at Baseball America (or your prospect site of choice).
someone please explain what “[bees,bees,bees]” is? thank you…
105: Go read post 21.
We started 2007 without Adam Jones, and we’ll start 2008 without him either, but with Erik Bedard. We had George Sherril in 2007, but for much of the year, he was a LOOGY, so no matter how good he was, he won’t be sorely missed in the long run. So those make the trade a ‘win’ for 2008 and 2009.
But hey, if you don’t make that trade, you’re definitely going to lose your job after 2009, so why not? The Mariner’s as a team certainly weren’t going to get much better on their own, and two more years of 80-85 wins (and nowhere near the playoffs) wasn’t getting anyone re-upped.
Derek – And, boy, does the Future Forty look sweet now, or what?
Have fun updating that, Dave..
(weeping)
I’d like to throw out the Coco Crisp plea at this point. I’d much rather get Crisp from Boston than sign any of the dreck left on the free agent market. Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green both have half-capacity throwing arms at this point, and neither can play center. Corey Patterson is probably going to make too much money over too long a period. Brad Wilkerson is far too injury prone to count on, and Reggie Sanders is even worse! That leaves Lofton, who isn’t an abysmal stopgap, and Crisp. I really like Crisp’s defense, so that’s the main reason I think I’d advocate him over Lofton.
I also really like the new button label that we have to press to enter our reply, lol.
if you’d mentally/emotionally already known that Jones was sure to get traded, here’s a kick in the gut:
(courtesy Geoff Baker)
“I spoke to John (McLaren) recently and I let him know that I want to be a Mariner for life. It’s the team that plucked me out of the independent league and so I’ll always have a spot in my heart for it and want to stay with the organization.” – George Sherril
Adam Jones: in 5 minor league seasons has an OPS of .830 … in the PCL. In admittedly limited action in 2 MLB seasons he has a .620 OPS.
Despite all the references and name dropping, why am I supposed to think the M’s gave up too much for their future ace? (if the deal even goes through)
He must be a good at fielding his position. That’s all I can think of.
#110
Crisp is awesome but:
a) the Moose almost killed him.
b) Epstein would fleece Bavasi.
107 – Shrugging your shoulders at a GM making a crap shoot to save his job shouldn’t be acceptable to you.
So we’re not losing anything because Jones never started for the M’s and is just a prospect, George Sherrill is just a LOOGY, so he can’t be that valuable, everyone else involved is just a prospect and therefore not worth a lot, Erik Bedard is very obviously going to resign with the Mariners, the Angels are not as good as everyone says they are and the M’s are going to continue to outdo their pythag while adding nine wins with Bedard pitching.
Did I get it all?
Why is Washburn the biggest loser??
Thank you 86, I was about to make something like the very same post. I have to say that since this is my last year in Seattle and after that I’m moving to Ohio, I’m selfishly ok with this deal since it will likely make the team better next year and after that I can start cheering for the tribe. Honestly, my nearly irrational fascination with Ichiro is probably the only thing that keeps me a Mariners fan.
111- This must be a kick in the nuts for Sherril then.
112 – Nice use of small sample size analysis.
If you truly want an answer to your question, conversation around this topic is far from hard to find by searching the archives.
116- I was wondering the same thing.
119 – that’s all the samples. What do you want?
To those of you who call some of us non-fans when we disagree with the moves this team makes, may I point you to #117.
Leave the rest of us alone.
116 – outfield defense and a flyball pitcher.
You all have to understand….this move is being done so that when Brandon Morrow turns into Ken Cloude because of bad coaching the team will have a good pitcher not named Felix or J.J.
119 – Exactly. Hence my calling the sample size small. Get it?
Morrow really is getting screwed here isn’t he? Why not start this guy? Maybe the M’s will turn around and make another deal for a right fielder…after all, bavasi is a frickin genious…
All I can think about is Varitek/Lowe. Remember people, the only thing Howard Lincoln cares about is fielding a .500 team and making money. In three years we’ll wish we had Jones AND we’ll be paying extra ticket fees for the Yankee series when Bedard is facing the same Mariner lineup that will start this April.
Given what Baker has said, why are we so sure Sherril is getting traded.
DMZ you have to admit that it’s true that Jones is “just a prospect” just like Barack Obama is “just a candidate for the Democractic nomination for the presidency” or Albert Einstein prior to general relativity was “just a guy in a lab coat”. (Ducks bees)
this is pointless
His AAA OPS is around 900, and if you think that OPS drops more than 120 going from AAA to MLB you’re crazy. And if you don’t think that a 780 OPS good fielding RF is valuable, you’re also crazy.
I guess like GW Bush, Bavasi has lost so much credibility with his past moves that even if he makes a good decision it is met with well founded skepticism. Bavasi got this one right. Probably.
I think this is a great deal – IF Clement isn’t included. The Mariners chances of winning the World Series in 2008 prior to this deal was about, what, .5 percent? With Bedard it is probably 8%. That is a huge leap. If the Mariners could get into the Playoffs Hernandez and Bedard could pitch them to the title. Long term, maybe Bedard loves the Pacific Northwest (who wouldn’t) and the M’s have plenty of Nintendo money to lock him up long term.
Jones is a great prospect. But with Ichiro being the selfish player he seemingly is, he won’t go back to Right Field which limits the value of Jones on defense. Sure Jones is a potential gold glover in CF, but he isn’t able to play right field. Also, Safeco isn’t kind to right handed power bats either (see Sexson and Beltre, etc.) so Jones likely would have had sub par OBP and SLG, at least for a few years.
If Jeff Clement is included in the deal then Bavasi clearly has mortgaged the future for now. Does anyone recall that Safeco was designed for LH power bats? What is Clement again, oh yea, a LH power bat, and a GOOD one. The guy can hit the ball 450 feet and he is decent behind the plate. If he is part of this package it is mistake short term and long term. Clement won 2 or the last 3 games of the season last year with his bat. Yes, that is a small sample, but this is a guy who broke home run records at a premier collegiate program. I would be shocked if he didn’t hit 30-40 homers annually in the very near future.
Bavasi – I don’t think you have much vision but if you catch a lot of breaks this just might work out.
I think at 3 for 1 it was a good deal for both sides, but adding Tony Butler and the Mick really scares me. Both of these guys have been making moves, are on the way up, and could have been in the show later this year or next year, with high ceilings.
Granted it is all BS until they walk between the lines and show us what they can do, but it seems if true, the “last-minute throw -in” players could come back to haunt the M’s like a couple of minor leaguers a while back with the Red Sox.
But at least Bavasi has job security for another year!
someone please explain what “[bees,bees,bees]†is? thank you…
Yeah, post 21. Plus, now we’ll have another year of Raul vs. the Angry Bees in LF.
The debate about HoRam’s $2.75M makes me think the pen. The last couple of years, the M’s have gotten pretty good production out of a pretty cheap bullpen. This year, the pen will represent a pretty ugly waste of resources. We’ll have a long reliever making almost $3M a year and a #5 overall pick as the RH setup guy. Now, sunk costs or no sunk costs, it’s hard to win championships when you have that kind of ineffiency. Add to that three back of the rotation starters averaging $10M a piece and, well, I guess what we have here is a pattern, eh?
Well, I am in luck. My brother gave me a bottle of awesome rum. I think I need a shot or two.
Ichiro is selfish.
This thread’s had a lot of insanity, but that has to be the dumbest thing anyone’s said.
What was moving from right to center, then? Selfishness? What about when he didn’t want to? Selfless or selfish?
I don’t even… I’m really not enjoying this discussion today.
[I'm an idiot - send bees my way!]
Ichiro selfish what? Jones can’t play right field what?
127 – Great idea. Blatantly disregard the request of an author, then acknowledge that you just did so. Did you not read the button you clicked on the bottom of this page?
128 – So, you’re participating why then? Nothing good on ESPN?
131: How is Adam Jones unable to play right field? Is that so much trickier than center field that it renders a very good defensive center fielder useless if he tries? I don’t get that logic at all.
And I’m fairly sure Jones is more of a line drive bat than a power bat. And that Clement doesn’t profile as a 30-40 HR bat in the majors. And that Ichiro isn’t selfish for helping the team. And…
Yeah, Derek’s right. This isn’t enjoyable.
I could honestly kill the KJR people (i’m using this term very loosely) for the Ichiro is selfish Vibe.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os0127,0,4261099,print.story
MacPhail is denying the whole thing.
“It’s not uncommon for teams to deny a trade or free-agent signing until physicals — if they are deemed necessary — are completed. However, a team source said tonight that trade talks involving Bedard were ongoing and the Orioles had not agreed to a deal with the Mariners or anybody else.”
Yeah, Derek’s right. This isn’t enjoyable.
Of course not – it’s the Mariners.
Yeah, we talked about the weird Orioles statement in a previous thread.
I may be wrong about Ichiro being selfish, but really, don’t you think it is fair to say there is at least some chance that this is an accurate statement? Being selfish isn’t all bad either. He wouldn’t get 200+ hits every year if he weren’t very talented and perhaps a bit selfish.
137 I’m assuming that you got the numbers wrong and are refering to me, and if you’ll read my post again I think it will be obvious that i’m mocking the “just a prospect” crowd. Cheers.
[I, too, am an idiot. Hello Bees!]
Uncle Ted – Totally, my apologies.
Eek. I’m probably not helping the mods by angrily reacting to some of these posts. Post numbers are changing quickly, and probably causing confusion.
I’ll stop. We should all take a step back and think before we post. This is becoming serious chaos.
Son of a… and here I thought I was actually adding something to the discussion.
Back to lurking, then.
Yeah, there’s a lot of deletion going on, and the numbers go up when first-time posters get their comments held for moderation. Always a risk when you reference particular numbers.
What does being selfish have to do with getting 200-plus hits a season? Is that supposed to mean that if he wasn’t selfish, he would not want 200-plus hits? Maybe he would feel bad that the pitcher hadn’t been able to get him out previously and he’d intentionally throw an at-bat?
[boy, I sure do like bees, send some more my way]
For what it’s worth…
Yesterday the Mariners were 30-1 to win the World Series at a major online oddsmaker. Today they are 29-1 to win the World Series. I’d expect a modest bump if/when the trade is approved but don’t expect it to go wild. My guess is 25-1 is the lowest it will dip to.
The guys who make those vegas lines are crazy smart and they are basically telling us we have no shot. Six teams have better odds from the American league than the M’s right now with the Angels at 10.25-1.
Jones is a great prospect. But with Ichiro being the selfish player he seemingly is, he won’t go back to Right Field which limits the value of Jones on defense.
I thought that Ichiro wasn’t willing to play center, and that’s why we kept putting weaker defensive players out there while he played right. Oh, but that’s the old line. Now Ichiro must only be willing to play center…
Honestly, I think the team could probably ask Ichiro to play pretty much any position and he’d give it a try (he’s already expressed an interest in pitching). Plus I don’t think I’d put Jones in center over Ichiro at this point. Ichiro in center and Jones in left…can you say black hole? Even with a corpse in right, that would be solid.
Now we have Ichiro+Ibanez+random stiff. Well, maybe we can add “visiting team must play with whiffle bats” to the ground rules for Safeco.
It should now be clear that the causal mechanism which gets you attacked by bees isn’t the mention of the words “just a prospect”, but rather any insinuation that minor league stats don’t project somewhat reliably to major leagues. To help clear things up, if you study projections of players with the data history of Adam Jones and compare them to projections of established major leaguers you’ll find that the projections of minor leaguers for whom there is substantive data project almost as well in the following years as projections of players who have major league experience.
Also,
Early last season (read 1st month) the M’s were 19-1 to win the world series. Someone think this team is worse…
Derek – Is this where that whole “until this becomes not fun” thing comes into play? I’m far too irritable to deal with a topic of this magnitude.
On the subject, particularly Dave’s #2 – We have two potential Cy Young candidates, who do you have open the season? If Felix wants/demands it, I think you give it to him. If he’s indifferent, I think you give it to Bedard to offload that pressure from Felix.
I don’t know, I’m sort of having fun with the bees.
But yes, it’d be nice if we’d have a little less of people just being contrarian for its own sake.
You know what species of animal is really fond of 200-hit season?
Dave, Derek, accepting the current situation and assuming that there is a little salary flexibility to round out the edges now that we’ve got our 2nd “ace” who would you look for in right field?
vegas oddsmakers are not crazy smart about predicting a teams performance for an upcoming season, but they are pretty good at predicting how patrons will wager, the lines move based on real and/or predicted action at the betting window.
I don’t know what I’d do next. I’m not in a good looking-forward-optimistically place right now.
In 2006, the Minnesota Twins had arguably the two best starting pitchers in the AL on their 40-man roster at the beginning of the season (Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano), an elite closer, a strong bullpen, and a mediocre offense (801 runs scored with an AL average of 804 runs scored). It turns out that that didn’t guarantee them any success in the playoffs.
All of the “two aces equals UNBEATABLE!!1!!111oneoneone!!” arguments just strike me as lazy thinking.
I can think of one name in particular that would not be much of a defensive upgrade (actually, a serious downgrade that would put Ibanez in right) and would be mega-controversial but also very, very productive.
Carl Everett? Because really, that’s the only way this thread can go any lower.
If PI is right, and we didn’t give up Clement or Triunfel, we have to consider this a success given the circumstances, right?
Jones was a given. As much as it sucked, we knew he was going out on any deal. So keeping those two despite rumors that they’d be included – however much stock you put in rumors – is a good thing.
Ha, no. I can think of one way this thread can go lower.
162- tha abominable snowman?
One hint: his dad played in the major leagues.
David Bell?
166 – Bumbles don’t like baseball.
I get to languish in the Tampa area. People talk about our young talent for years and the best we can do is a 4th place finish, once in the last 10 years. So having all the young talent in the world, does not get you anywhere. I would kill for us to get a pitcher like Bedard.
I do follow the American league east religiously.
As far as Bedard, I don’t know much about Jones, he is a dominate pitcher. I see where people have said he may not repeat his performance and he has only done it for the past year and a half. One thing I do know he became extremely dominant approximately 1.5 years ago, after Kris Benson taught him a new grip on his change-up. It should be an archive article in the Baltimore sun if you want the quote from Bedard.
Since then he has dominated everyone. I have personally seen him several times against Tampa and he is a stud. He has shut down our offense every time out and that is rare for our offense.
If he helps you get to the playoffs, he should be extremely valuable against the skanks and the Red Soxs. He has dominated both teams.
I don’t know what trade would be fair, but you guys will be getting a great pitcher.
Also, last years injury was a stomach muscle pull, which he could have pitched more, but Baltimore shut him down, which actually benefits you guys now. Good luck and I hope you guy knock Boston and the skanks out of the playoffs.
Another thing, if you guys don’t make a playoff run and Bedard pitch’s as well for you as Baltimore, you guys can trade him at the deadline. Imagine what he will be worth at the deadline for a team wanting/desperate to get in the playoffs…..
Dave or DMZ, could you clarify why/how Wash will be the biggest loser in the deal?
162 – I’d be all for that move, but chances are slim obviously, and like 10 people in the state of Washington would agree with me.
Surely you can’t mean Griffey…so um, Brett Boone?
I do have to agree that this was pretty much inevitable.
It quickly became clear that the organization just never really thought very highly of Adam Jones (spare me the “maybe it was for a reason since they work for a baseball team and you don’t”) and that he was never going to get a real shot to be successful here.
My hope at this point becomes, then, that they don’t give up too much ELSE as part of the deal. If it’s Jones plus scraps, then I can live with this deal within that context; if the Orioles were smart enough to get a substantial additional hall, well, in a few years people will have forgotten all about Varitek and Lowe for Slocumb.
Yes! Rosterbation about a soon-to-be felon!
We have sunk lower.
No, he’s talking about an outfielder. Obviously Moises Alou.
Oh, sweet Mary, mother of Jesus, the term is “dominant”. Not “dominate”. “Dominate” is a verb. “Dominant” is an adjective.
My own idea on who to sign for the outfield is so full of aWesome, you people can’t accept all the aWesome in one sentence. Did I stutter?
Why isn’t Kameron Mickolio in this bigs? He looks like a solid reliever.
Honestly, nothing would make me happier than Barry bonds in left field. No, I’m not kidding. Unfortunately Barry Bonds will likely be in jail.
The answer to the outfield question is obvious, anyway.
Willie Bloomquist.
[see comment guidelines]
re:177
Sorry, mr perfect….
Actually I was thinking of Trey Griffey. He’s in his teens now, right? He probably swings a mean bat.
I’ve read the book about this unnamed played I mean Trey Griffey and while I think the allegations are pretty much all true, I also am not sure that he’s likely to be convicted of anything in the near future. If the feds had anything on him, they would have acted on it by now. Also, it’s not like the M’s are replacing Mister Superstar Nice Man in the outfield.
Am I the only one here who wishes George Sherrill wasn’t part of the deal? Geez, he’s been lights out for two years now. Left-handed setup guys aren’t that easy to find, especially those that strike out as many as George does.
The answer to the outfield question is obvious, anyway.
Willie Bloomquist
Unfortunately, with this organization and this manager, there’s a non-zero chance of that.
Jeff Nye – Why did you have to say that when I was about to go to bed? May your Wheaties taste like play dough tomorrow morning.
I’d also like to toss my hat into the “What is the reasoning behind Dave’s #20?” thing. Do you figure this is his ticket out of town via trade?
Left-handed setup guys aren’t that hard to find either. The M’s could probably convert HoRam into a passable one. Maybe that’s going too far.
Carson, there’s nothing we can do at this point except try to have a sense of humor about the whole thing! Get on the pony bandwagon with me.
John Mclaren is gonna be on Q it up sports on channel 13 at 10:50 to talk about the trade.
Jeff Nye, you will not catch me on your silly pony. I just won’t do it. I’ll walk behind you, and hope it doesn’t crap in my path.
By the way, I vote we name the pony “Disdain.” All future references to it should be using her name.
Can we give the bees some names as well? Maybe name the whole swarm?
Mac is on Q13 right now. Bring your barf bags.
That Jeff Sullivan cat has basically pegged my feelings about this whole deal over at LL. I’m honestly not that upset since there’s really a substantive aesthetic benefit to this trade even if it’s not wise from a long term wins perspective.
McLaren feels that Shane Monahan is “a good young talent”.
Still? Really?
I like too that McLaren’s philosophy is “throw strikes, get strikes”
So it’s a good thing for batters to get strikes, but… I’m confused.
“Throw strikes, hit strikes.”
That was Mac’s answer to his philosophy this year. Awesome paradox.
ponies? happy pink ponies?
What did McLaren mention about the Bedard trade? I tuned in at the last minute when McLaren was commenting on Shane Monahan.
Maybe we can test the limits of reality -bring signs saying stuff like “Adam Jones’ Killer Bees” to Ms-Orioles games (or any games) and see if it catches on.
Maybe the Baltimore brass makes a mistake in the paperwork and sends Markakis along with Bedard. I am pretty sure I’d be ok with that.
Jones’ comments showed that he is quite the class act to go along with his baseball prowess. I can’t wait until he is just a prospect to make the All-Star team.
Mortgaging the future for a present that is blocked heavily by Detroit / NY / Boston / Cleveland. That makes me a sad panda
I think I prefer Larue’s characterization of him as a whiny little baby, myself.
McLaren essentially said nothing. He played the ignorance card (no, not the one when he manages) but said that you have to give up a lot to get a #1 starter, whether it be via free agency or trade.
Hey, we should pick up Sammy Sosa to play some outfield. He wants to go to somebody who can guarantee him playing time, he had a productive offensive season last year as well. I actually love the Bedard trade btw.
@ Dave and #13:
I didn’t say you hated the organization – you did. I called you overly pessimistic right now. You have constantly assumed Bedard will never consider an extension here and he’s gone, or that he can’t post a season near last year. You’re right about almost everything? How many wins did you predict the Mariners would win in the 2007 season?
Oh, and I appreciate your not-so-thinly veiled shots at my intelligence. I love this site and your breakdowns, I just think that even though this isn’t a good move, it could turn out to be a whole lot better than you’re letting on, we both know that.
Predict with pessimism, and you can claim you’re right when the team fails and everyone is looking for reasons why. Predict with pessimism, and when the team exceeds your expectations, you act as surprised as the rest of us and we forget about the initial projections because we’re cheering on success together. You’ve been right about the poor times, but how often are you right about the good times in the past several years? A lot less often. Or maybe because you rarely predict them.
I appreciate you guys and all your work and analysis. I’m just hoping for a little “best/better-case scenario” analysis here, because what’s done is done.
I just caught up reading the comment thread. The numerous deletions saved me oodles of time. Just to respond to the various individuals who think Jones is easily replaceable, here is the list of position players on the M’s better than Jones
Ichiro
Beltre
Joh
Ibanez (maybe)
How do the M’s easily replace their 5th (or 4th) best position player, who was paid roughly the league minimum?
184: Here, here on that sentiment, bro. But alas, I guess we’ll have HoRam’s LOOGY Gas Can appearances to look forward to in the late innings next year instead.
I resent the implication that there’s some nefarious motive in our work to set us up to look good, or that we “act” surprised when the team enjoys unexpected success.
That’s a pretty shitty thing to say.
I predicted the ‘07 M’s as
“~80 wins. That’s probably a little low… 82? 83? Assumes they blow their last chunk of change on one starter, as seems likely. Also omits Reed, who is almost certainly gone.”
Then revised that to 82 and for bonus points, I’ll go ahead and claim to have called both the actual and pythag records:
My sketch of the team put it at 82 wins without further moves, and the best projections by systems are a lot less optimistic – you easily drop 20+ runs pushing the ZiPS or PECOTA numbers for the bullpen in there, which puts the team at 79-80 wins on the season.
As for the other issue — we pretty much managed to predict .500 for all the Mariner teams the last few years, one way or another. I don’t see how that can be taken as pessimistic on the whole since I consistently overshot their actual results.
Anyway, I think you’re wrong, disagree entirely with your thesis, and I’m frankly quite offended by the implication you’re making.
Derek – make that two of us who were offended by responses in this thread as well.
I understand your point, and for what it was worth, it was more directed at Dave and not so much the site in general or you. And do not get me wrong, I appreciate the reality check when looking for quality Mariners analysis (there’s none better). I still maintain my observation though – not to say you intentially lowball to look better in the future. I’m just saying.
bubblegumcrisis asked for clarification on why Wash is the biggest loser. I’m not Dave or Derek, but I know the answer to this one. Since a quick “flyball pitcher + outfield defense” answer didn’t work, I’ll elaborate.
Washburn is a flyball pitcher (meaning, batters hit a lot of fly balls off of him). A good outfield defense will turn lots and lots of those fly balls into fly outs. A bad outfield defense will let them fall for doubles into the gap. Ibanez hustles his butt off, gives it his all on every play, and has good hands and rarely misses a ball that he can get to (and makes the occasional spectacular catch). But his legs are shot and he doesn’t get to very many balls in the gap. (plus, he takes wierd routes to the ball. “Like he’s being chased by a swarm of angry bees” someone once said). Plus, Safeco has a huge outfield, making it important to have guy who can cover ground. Jones is a legit center fielder and can cover a ton of ground. The difference between him and Ibanez on defense is probably worth a quarter of a point to Washburn’s ERA.
Of course, the reality is, Ibanez was going to be playing LF even if Jones stayed in Seattle. So maybe Wash was always doomed to watch a few game-losing doubles drop into that cavern in left-center or roll into the LF corner.
I guess we just better stop watching baseball altogether, all us sour AntiPollyannas.
back to Belief no. 13, I see that Ozzie is claiming that Big Bart was offered an incentive-laden deal by the Sox, & he declined, holding out for something around the $8M mark.
huh.
You might want to rethink your “divide and conquer” strategy.
In any case, this is a Bedard trade discussion, not a “I think Dave is a big meanie poopyhead” discussion.
There’s a link to email the authors if you feel you’ve been treated unfairly.
Tek, good point. I’d put Jones ahead of Ibanez but it depends how much you hold being “forced” into the OF against Raul.
That said, Jones’s performance is replaceable. It’s just going to cost the M’s $3-4 million for the next two years and $10-12 for the four after that. Not to mention $4M to replace Sherill. I hope the team is planning on a $140M payroll.
Jones:prospect::Bedard:starting pitcher
I have some Stats for you BEDARD lovers…
Bedard before last season averaged around 7 K’s a game. Ace? No.
Bedard’s career GO/AO before last year 0.80. Ace? No.
Bedard’s Career WHIP before last year 1.83. Ace? No.
Number of Shutouts before last year, zero. Ace? No.
Number of time Bedard has reached 200 inning pitched ever, zero. Ace? no.
Number of complete games before lat year, zero. Ace? No.
Average number of Base on balls before last year 65. Ace? No.
One great, and I’ll say great again because it was a GREAT year, Does NOT make you an ace.
TA Dah. Now Dave, please tell me Triunfel is a not a Oriole…please tell me you are speculating
I’m sad for George.
From the Mariner’s official page:
“I have not heard a thing,” he said, “but am preparing myself for the worst.”
Baltimore = the worst? In baseball terms, yes, maybe it does.
I feel sad for George, too.
I don’t want to see him leave, especially since he’s made it clear that he wants to be a career Mariner.
=/
Thanks for the response, JMHawkins, that makes perfect sense. I appreciate the easy to understand analysis!
I’m sad for George.
From the Mariner’s official page:
“I have not heard a thing,†he said, “but am preparing myself for the worst.â€
Baltimore = the worst? In baseball terms, yes, maybe it does.
Didn’t George’s brother read USSM once in a while last year? I hope he still does so he can tell George I’m sad to see him go too. A bunch of us are.
If George is truly gone, he will be missed. I whish him luck in coping with the baseball hell that is Baltimore
whish = a term similar to wish but with a fun lispy sound
First let me say that I am a long time “reader” first time poster. I have been living abroad for the past 6 years, and this is my one true place to follow the M’s and follow intelligent baseball talk.
That said, I don’t know when any move made or accepted by the M’s has been met with anything but venomous anger and distain.
My Question to everyone is: have we made a decent move in the past 5 years?
213: Well put — that’s one reason why I’m reserving judgement on this move.
220 – Thanks. Don’t get me wrong everyone I want Bedard to be an ace if he is going to be in Seattle…but I am going to miss Jones and company
I think Eddie Izzard would say this thread is covered in BEEEEEES!
That said, I don’t know when any move made or accepted by the M’s has been met with anything but venomous anger and distain.
Are you kidding? Just last year, we were happy about the Ichiro extension, the Batista signing was nice, we had some nice things to say about some of their minor league invites, we loved Burke, we’ve been fighting the “Beltre wasn’t worth it” conventional wisdom forever… there’s a ton of stuff we’ve been positive about.
When was the last time this team made a good trade? Honestly, it’s late and my mind is blanking.
#225: Vidro for Snelling and Fruto
Nice.
225: Um, Darren Bragg for Jamie Moyer perhaps?
And geez, that was back in the Clinton era for heaven’s sake!
By good I mean not bad.
WooHoo Bedard!!!!!!
Is Wilkerson next??
I for one am lovin’ it..our starting pitching has stunk for far too long…
And he’s Canadian to boot!!!!
Minor league stats as a whole isn’t exactly the best way to predict a prospect. at least not in the way of looking at his overall numbers and subtract certain percentages. (for Example. Miguel Cabrera ’s minor league OPS didn’t crack .800 as a whole )
Age curve and performances in the high minors are though. if someone does well in the high minors and isn’t overaged. he is likely going to have success in the majors. Adam Jones is such a player. he has he’s problems that he may or may not improve on going foward. but at the very very worest he’s Cory Patterson, and best? hard to say but a productive major leaguer certainly seem like a good median case.
As for Dave’s comments on Jones when he was drafted .. hey at least it wasn’t as off as his comments on Cano
(from can’t crack AAA to perinal all star in 3 years. ouch ) . seriously though. prospect watching is a very deep matter and just because you don’t like a draft doesn’t mean he’ll surely fail or that you wouldn’t change your opinion about him.
Anyway. I think the biggest problem here is that the M’s talent evaluation is terrible. if the Braves traded these guys for Bedard I would think that maybe they know something about them that we don’t, but the M’s track record is just bad over the last decade . even looking at the last few year’s trade. the onces that did work out didn’t make sense at the time and wasn’t exactly a steal or anything . (Vidro is still a pretty shitty hitter for a DH ) and a lot of the moves are biting them big time ( Cabrera , Soriano … let alone Varitek / Lowe )
As for Bedard. he is a great pitcher. but his health record is more than a little spotty. he could just as well turn into Carl Pavano gig 2 (but he is a better pitcher. the reference is simply that he had 2 good season after a load of healty problems like Pavano )
I don’t like this trade. much like I don’t like the Nick Swisher trade for the White Sox, the issue here isn’t just the talent swab. it’s a seriously flawed assesment of your team’s position both long term and short term.
I can’t believe I read this whole thread. Not a good showing from some people.
“The sky is falling mentality is getting real old.”
Not to pile on, but shouldn’t you be more concerned that they continue to be right?
Mediocrity is no better than being awful. At least with the latter you often feel like they are trying to rebuild.
The Mariners just tread water, occasionally slipping under and swallowing a lung full of suck.
How you can complain about people being pessimists with a straight face is beyond me. Or maybe it wasn’t straight and you’re having a joke.
“#11 is quite frankly a curious argument for a stat guy to put forward. Defense has its value. It tends to be grossly overrated by non-statheads. The M’s outfield was not very good last year anyway.”
I don’t find it to be grossly-overrated by non-statheads at all, for one thing. For another, if you read this site at all you would no that the concern for defense is far from a curiosity.
And how does “not very good anyway” take the sting out of making it even worse?
“And I’m sorry, but I have to go back to that Horacio Ramirez comment (point #17). You guys have to understand sunk cost by now, right? It doesn’t *matter* whether or not Horacio Ramirez is making $2.75M a year or $27.5M a year. If he’s good enough to start, he should start; if he’s not, he should not. Period. Forget about the salary. That money is already gone and won’t come back by putting him into more situations where he’ll lose the team games as well as money.”
Do you honestly think that was about sunk costs? Or did you just want to write about it? You had to have understood the point.
“Steal for the M’s. They gave up nothing an org can’t replace quickly.”
Wowza.
“Predict with pessimism, and you can claim you’re right when the team fails and everyone is looking for reasons why. Predict with pessimism, and when the team exceeds your expectations, you act as surprised as the rest of us and we forget about the initial projections because we’re cheering on success together. You’ve been right about the poor times, but how often are you right about the good times in the past several years? A lot less often. Or maybe because you rarely predict them.”
WHAT good times?
They’ve predicted plenty of good specifics – player performances, etc. But what good times has the organization had? Bat night?
“HoRam is about as valuable to the M’s as a guy named Horwath (some tard, who back in June stated that we should root for the M’s to fail) is to this discussion…I really like the M’s staff.”
Feel free to add me to your naive fan evaluation system.
I hope the M’s lose the first 30 games and this house is cleaned.
I decided a long time ago that I believed that the M’s were never going to excel without a management overhaul.
If I’m right about that, then the best thing for the team is to do whatever it has to, sink as low as necessary, for ownership to make the changes.
Since I am a fan, I want what helps the team win the world series. If I believe that the best and fastest way for the team to do that is to change management, then come on 0-30! Or 50. Or 162.
Whatever it takes.
If you want to argue that my belief that management overhaul is essential to the team reaching the series, no problem, plenty of room for disagreement.
But if you want to argue that my rooting for short-term failure to achieve long-term success means I am a “bad fan,” then you are a fool.
Two important things to remember here.
1. Bedard is a high end high return player. The M’s may have over paid but they are getting quality in return. When you buy a Mercedes Benz with the dealer mark up you take a beating but in the end you still have one of the best cars money can buy. This is different then a lot of the other Bavasi era trades where we traded value and got a 98 Hyundai Sonata in return.
2. Until we see how the hole in the outfield is filled this is not a finished story. If the M’s can fill the significant hole they now have in right field with a quality player this trade sits OK with me. But if they fill it with the likes of Gonzo (or pick a retred has been) then this is all but worthless. I’m betting on the latter but let’s wait and see.
Bees? Really? Well I guess the Bee is seen as an angry animal, so I guess it makes sense. Although it reminds me that one thing thats always kept me away from commenting here- is the tendency to censor divergent and/or uninformed opinions. We may not all come out and say “Way to go Dave!”, but you can rest assured that when you make a solid argument, 49 out out of 50 people here will get your point, without having to resort to rabid deletions to get it across. I’d prefer you just allow stupid people to look stupid, instead taking actions that make this website look Stalinist.
Now on the topic at hand, I agree that this trade will have a pretty small impact on the regular season- 3 wins sounds about right. To be fair to the other side though, we have to remember that while Jones has kicked a lot of ass in AAA, his MLB future is still up in the air. He could be Carlos Beltran or he could be Torii Hunter. Or he could completely fizzle. Judging from the emotion in this thread, you would think we traded the former. AJ was probably my 2nd favorite Mariner after Ichiro, moreso than el Ray, but AJ+ for Bedard is more than a fair deal compared to what the typical Bedard type would net in a trade. And considering how good a fit Bedard is for us, and how hard it is to acquire a true #1 starter who catches right handed, it seemed to emphasize all the more that this deal made a lot of sense for the Mariners.
The Deal also makes a lot of sense for Jones, who will play in a much better ballpark for RH hitters.
We don’t know what will happen with Bedard, but we can all agree that he packs a large amount of awesomeness, and I don’t think its a stretch to suggest that he could net the M’s prospects down the road if the M’s find themselves in position to trade him.
The ad-hominem thing made me curious, so I checked it out. I had previously thought that any personal attack qualified, but apparently personal insults don’t count, unless its part of a strategy to discredit the other side.
Dave called Matt an idiot. But he didn’t say Matt was incorrect because he is an idiot. A subtle difference but an important one.
Of course, personal attacks are best left out of reasonable debate, but CO and Dave are correct on this one.
My first post ever, I’ve been reading the site for two years now at least. Anyway I digress; we still have Jeremy Reed on the team. How about a platoon of Reed and Wlad out in Right? Or better yet have Wlad out in Left and Reed in right. Have Ibanez DH and trade Vidro for whatever? Or maybe I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about?
To be fair to the other side though, we have to remember that while Jones has kicked a lot of ass in AAA, his MLB future is still up in the air.
To be fair, we have to remember that while Bedard kicked a lot of ass LAST YEAR, his MLB future is still up in the air. There are no guarantees and “proven veterans” aren’t really more sure things than youngsters who smoked AAA. Heck, the Mariners of all teams should know that — Olerud, Boone, Ibanez, Sexson, Everett, and Weaver were all proven veterans who put up sucktastic seasons. At least Bedard has youth in his favor. Seriously I think Bedard will have a fine season, but he’s not a lock for a top 5 Cy Young finish (you didn’t say that but others talk like he is).
How about a platoon of Reed and Wlad out in Right
No. You’re talking about two guys who can’t hit major league pitching. I really liked Reed, but he’s pretty clearly a 4th OF at best and more realistically a AAAA guy.
Anyone familiar with how the arbitration process works when a guy is traded after being offered arb?
Baltimore already offered Bedard $6m, and he asked for $8m. For the sake of curiosity, could the Mariners change that figure after assuming control of his contract?
Furthermore, would it be wise for the Mariners to attempt to reach a long term extension (yes, I know Bedard wants FA, but if the price is right..), or would it be a safer bet for them to see how the first year and a half of his tenue here goes?
Jeff Nye, the New Stalin.
well, no, not really.
I’d prefer you just allow stupid people to look stupid, instead taking actions that make this website look Stalinist.
You’re going to have to take my word on this, but you don’t.
You really don’t. It may seem that way reading through threads and seeing the [ot] and whatnot, but there’s a huge amount of utter, raw crap that gets thrown up that in no way contributes to reasonable discussion.
It’s like spam. We get people trying to register to push offshore drugs or whatever, and that gets deleted. No one wants to see people make spammers of themselves, though.
Terms I hate:
“Ace”
“Top of the rotation”
“1-2 punch”
It seems from reading this, the side that loves these terms supports this trade, and uses them to back that up, while the side that opposes the trade uses actual analysis. Just an observation having just read through the last 230+ posts.
Couple Questions for those that know more than me, DMZ/Dave:
1) Would you rather give up Butler/Mick/Sherill or Truinfel or Clement. Just trying to gauge relative prospect valuation here. I think I’d rather keep the B+ prospect and give up a couple B-s, though I’m curious to here some analysis of the different potential packages we might be raped on.
2) Sickels gave Wlad a B+, which seems too high to me, but whatever his longterm outlook, he seems like he will be ready for the bigs at some point this year. Outlook? Anything much to be optimistic about?
There are only three things left for us to do. 1. Hope Bedard or Jones fail their physical. 2. Hope Angelos kills the deal at the last minute. 3. Hope we are wrong about how good Jones, Tillman, and Butler are going to be and that Bedard is so good, that every Mariner is inspired to play way over their head.
Do you think Wlad gets to play with the big boys this year?
oh, another term to add to #241. “Proven major leaguer”.
Just as a couple of FYIs and a shred of hope for anyone looking for straws to grasp on to…
The Baltimore Sun is still sticking with the “No deal has been completed yet,” and Andy McPhail is adamant that no agreement has been reached. The Sun’s blogger on the Orioles beat is not that great, but the current thinking of its baseball reporters is a shrug of the shoulders and a big “I dunno” about whether a trade will happen.
Also, Peter Angelos has killed deals at the last minute before, so it’s possible he may do so again here.
…obviously since none of you bedard belivers red this I’ll post it again…this time READ IT and let it soak in.
Bedard before last season averaged around 7 K’s a game. Ace? No.
Bedard’s career GO/AO before last year 0.80. Ace? No.
Bedard’s Career WHIP before last year 1.83. Ace? No.
Number of Shutouts before last year, zero. Ace? No.
Number of time Bedard has reached 200 inning pitched ever, zero. Ace? no.
Number of complete games before lat year, zero. Ace? No.
Average number of Base on balls before last year 65. Ace? No.
BEDARD IS NOT A PROVEN ACE.
Bedard is awesome.
Am I insane to think that Jeremy Reed could have a resurgence and play RF? There’s no question about his defense, and if he could just tread water with the bat I think he’d be a better option than Lofton or some of the FA’s out there. He was a stud before getting hurt — I’d like to see him come into spring training with a real chance to win a starting job in Right or Center.
Jeremy Reed will not be the starting RF for the M’s. The M’s will almost certainly pay millions to someone who is both offensively and defensively worse than AJ.
Edgar, I’m sure the Bedard fans read it, but c’mon that is shoddy analysis that adds nothing worthwhile to the conversation. Have you actually watched Bedard pitch a game? In your mind, Wwhat constitutes a proven ace anyway? 2 years of dominance? 3 years? Bedard is as good as it gets and if he’s not a proven ace to you right now then I don’t know what to tell you.
Hey, are we going to challenge the AL record for fewest runs scored this year? If Ichiro has an off year, we could smash it.
How much of Bedard’s super-duper greatness disappears when he’s pitching in front of the Sculpture Garden outfield of Ichiro and two statues? That’s gotta add a half-run to his ERA right there. Or maybe he’ll get lucky and it’ll all go into the error column and off his ERA. We still lose, though.
Losing Jones is bad. Losing Triunfel is criminal. Jones is a likely All-Star; Triunfel’s a potential MVP for years to come. What scares me about this trade isn’t 2008 as much as it is 2010, after Bedard has led us to a couple more 80 win seasons while Jones and Triunfel are showing off their plaques and trophies.
My prediction for ‘08 goes up a notch: I’ll say 78 wins.
And Dave @13: I AM a pessimist who hates the organization. I’m not afraid to say it. I’ve been putting up with this crap for too many decades. God damn the Seattle Mariners.
#247
I think your analysis of Bedard over-simplifies a few things:
- his career K figures were closer to 8 K/9 than 7. For a starting pitcher, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning is elite performance (only 16 players averaged > 8 K’s/9 last year).
- Shutouts, complete games and WHIP are all essentially useless in player evaluation. Go to:
http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/29/evaluating-pitcher-talent/
for more information.
- Citing the fact that he hasn’t reached a specific benchmark before last season doesn’t take legitimate skills growth into consideration. Bedard just finished his age 28 season and was easily one of the three or four best pitchers in the AL despite playing in the same division as Boston and New York. Most of the available data suggests that players peak somewhere between their mid-20’s and early 30’s; while I don’t think Bedard will strike out nearly 11 batters per nine innings pitched, he is a great pitcher. In fact, given the nature of their contracts I would argue he is more valuable than Santana is at this moment in time.
That fact has gotten somewhat lost in the mix. I fully understand the reasons why some don’t want to trade Jones (and I agree with most of them), but it’s not as if Bavasi traded for Noah Lowry or Tim Hudson.
I can’t find anywhere that says Triunfel is included in the deal. Where is everyone getting that info?
This can still be a great trade IF the Mariners can sign Bedard to a long-term contract. I believe Dave’s analysis on this trade is based on the assumption that Bedard is determined to test free-agency. Actually, from what I’ve read, that is not necessarily the case. Since the trade is not “officially” confirmed, you could hope that it’s contingent on a contract extension…
In any event, as a Red Sox fan, I am thrilled to see Bedard leave the division- for obvious reasons. I don’t care if Jones can scorch the ball, and if the other prospects are also very strong; my team can counter that, but we can’t seem to hit off Erik Bedard.
ESPN.com is now reporting that Sherrill (and AJ of course) is telling teammates that he is scheduled for a physical in Baltimore.
“That fact has gotten somewhat lost in the mix. I fully understand the reasons why some don’t want to trade Jones (and I agree with most of them), but it’s not as if Bavasi traded for Noah Lowry or Tim Hudson.”
Funny that you mention Noah Lowry. The #1 most similar pitcher to Erik Bedard (per Baseball Reference) is Noah Lowry.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bedarer01.shtml
I’m pretty sure I wasn’t Stalin when I went to bed last night; as far as this morning goes, ask me after I’ve finished my first cup of coffee.
Here’s the thing, though (I’m speaking for the other volunteer mods to an extent, but I’m fairly sure they’d agree with me):
We could moderate a LOT more heavily than we do. I know that I personally approved a lot of things last night that I didn’t agree with, but that were at least not needlessly vitriolic/insulting.
What WILL get you edited, deleted, or attacked by killer bees is when you think that you have the right to come here and act like a jerk just because it’s the Internet, or be needlessly contrarian just to create conflict (and yes, that IS different than just having a differing, well-supported opinion).
I’m not going to drift this thread any further, but I thought that point was worth addressing. If you think the moderation here is too heavy-handed, I can’t particularly bring myself to weep for you; if anything, we are probably a little TOO lenient at times.
>>Edgar, I’m sure the Bedard fans read it, but c’mon that is shoddy analysis that adds nothing worthwhile to the conversation. Have you actually watched Bedard pitch a game? In your mind, Wwhat constitutes a proven ace anyway? 2 years of dominance? 3 years? Bedard is as good as it gets and if he’s not a proven ace to you right now then I don’t know what to tell you.>>
Shoddy Analysis…sure. His lifetime record excluding his career year…is a shoddy analysis…don’t be stupid. I’ve Bedard pitch, I’ve seen him pitch before JUST last year as well. Yes Bedard had a dominate season, one ins which he couldn’t even fully complete due to injury…that sure sound like a super swell ace to me. ” I’ll pour my heart out fro 13 wins…then I might not be healthy anymore”.
For the amount of future studs we gave up in this deal, you’d better give me a sure fire ace. Not a “Yeah I had one good season” ace. He’s not a proven ace…since does one great year make you a proven ace. Ace last year? yes? Before that? No. Albert Pujlos and Johan Santana both had sub par seasons…does that make them sub par players now? No. Its the same with Erik Bedard.
Probably because he has the same moderate bouts of control problems that Lowry has. His #2 comp is Scott Kazmir and I think that anyone who has seen the three of them pitch would say Bedard is more Kazmir than Lowry.
“Bedard’s Career WHIP before last year 1.83. Ace? No.”
Stop Saying that. It’s just not true. Eyeballing it on B-Ref, it was about 1.40.
261- My math came out to 1.83
1.40 isn’t ace like either…so what your point “B-Ref”. Don’t get nick-picky and change the topic. i was saying his number are not ace like…and you’re math doesn’t prove different.
edgar for mayor, you might want to find a better way of getting your point across lest the bees be unleashed.
Jeff Nye – I can’t imagine the crap storm you guys dealt with last night. That had to of been some sort of record for the most posts (amongst the three threads) in that time frame for this blog.
Moderators rarely get thanks for the work they do (same with the authors), so thank you guys. Please don’t allow the idiocy of some to bring you down and take away a generally fantastic learning community from those of us who enjoy it.
249
Yes you very likely could be
Maybe we could get a ASA (Softball) exemption and play four outfielders like in slow pitch. Bonds, Ibanez, Ichiro and W-Lad.
Re: 247
Erik Bedard has had three consecutive years of declining ERA and WHIP and increasing K/9 and control. He’s gone 28-16 on a team that has been well below .500. In the second half last year he went 7-1 with 92 Ks in 75 innings, and he’s at the age when power pitchers hit their prime. This is a pitcher that has been building towards ace status for several years and to suggest otherwise is to not have done your homework. Ron Shandler put it best: “He’s arrived.”
Of course, mentioning WHIP at all while undertaking any sort of serious analysis could also be construed as not doing one’s homework.
I omitted that the 28-16 is over the past two years..the O’s went 139-185.
OK Graham. But can you take his stats over the past three years and make the argument that his ‘07 was an abberation?
“1.40 isn’t ace like either…so what your point “B-Refâ€. Don’t get nick-picky and change the topic. i was saying his number are not ace like…and you’re math doesn’t prove different.”
My point is your post was misleading. A 1.83 WHIP is not major league caliber; it’s HoRam bad.
1.40, and improving, is a whole different situation.
The argument isn’t that Bedard is bad, it’s that he’s risky, and the M’s aren’t ready to win a championship.
edgar for mayor – Win/Loss record is not the best way to analyze a pitcher (See: Ramirez, Horacio). His injury was one that he could have been pitched through had the O’s been contenders, and his being shut down actually turns out to help the Mariners.
I don’t agree with the trade, but could think of far better ways to make the argument (though, they’ve been beaten to death, so I won’t).
Alos, could you spin the fact that he isn’t a proven ace a few more ways? I count roughly seven in that one post alone. You’ve almost sold me.
OK Graham. But can you take his stats over the past three years and make the argument that his ‘07 was an abberation?
No, because I don’t think it is an abberation. Bedard is amazing.
And I still hate this trade.
Just reported on ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3218624
May another long painful wait begin.
[dupe]
Graham – You have prepared yourself for the pro-trade folks who are now going to question how one can think a guy is amazing, but oppose the trade, after that comment, right?
I’ll probably just tell them that I have a rudimentary understanding of roster construction and they do not.
Here’s the deal: I don’t CARE if Bedard is an ace or not.
I don’t think “ace” is a particularly meaningful word.
My point is that all of Bedard’s performance indicators have been pointing towards stardom and that anyone who suggests ‘07 was an outlier season should be swarmed just as someone suggesting Jones is “just a prospect” should be swarmed. You can define ace however you want, but the numbers he is projected to put up, with a high degree of reliability, should suffice.
Jeff Nye #58
I for one agree the moderators showed great restraint last night. (most the time actually).
I still don’t fully grasp Blog proper etiquette as this was my first experience with them. I took t he idea I was in the authors home. Except I can drink more, but the same manners apply.
Most importantly their home their rules. I am not forced to come or stay. I appreciate the time and effort the Hosts sacrifice to educate,inform and entertain. All for no charge.
The past couple of years it does appear there are many more “fast guns”. Their sole purpose appears to be to argue with the authors. Many times same points over and over with out ever having read prior lengthy well researched Posts.
I think the Moderators all have shown great restraint over the past couple of years. I only hope that for Derek and Dave it doesn’t top being a little fun.
Folks like me appreciate the education over the past 5 years. Thank you.
[dupe]
There are 100 more comments in this blog than innings Bedard will likely pitch next year.
Here is the flaw in the logic of the FO and those that support this deal: Richie Sexson. Let’s say that the FO is correct about the “Ace-ness” of Bedard and the impact he’ll have on the starting rotation and the bullpen. Fine. We’ve improved the pitching, but at the cost of outfield defense and offense. Without making up for Guillen’s lost offense or improving outfield defense the team is net no better than last year. Bavasi loves Ibanez in LF so we need to make it up on the offensive side. How is the difference going to be made up?
Let’s assume we fill RF with a guy from AAA (Reed, Balentien, Morse) or a retread FA (Gonazlez, Lofton). (BTW — Anyone have any better ideas??) With the assumption that the rest of the team’s hitters do essentially what they did last season (a big if with oldies like Vidro and Ibanez) and that Lopez improves a little…the only way the offense makes up for the loss of Guillen is a huge year from (drum roll please) Richie F’n Sexson. We’ve heard McLaren say he thinks Sexson will “return to form” this year so I think we can safely assume this is figuring into their thinking. How damn long do we have to hang the hopes of this franchise on a resurgent Sexson? He’s not getting any younger and has always been about 2 MPH of bat speed away from being on the scrap heap. The M’s need to learn that hope is not a plan. We have no solution if Sexson continues his season-long sub-.700 OPS “slump.”
259:
Edgar – again, a valid point. For a historical perspective on the “super swell ace who would’ve been even more awesome if not for injury” theory, see also: Gullett, Don; Fernandez, Sid; or Guzman, Juan.
Just saying.
#240, #258.
I understand that there are differences between USSM and other forum based websites. For example, at the Seattle PI, if you make statements that are out of line on a regular basis, your account is deleted and in some cases your ISP is banned. I could be wrong, but my observation of USSM indicates that those options aren’t on the table, hence the very heavy and very specific individual use of censorship and moderating. So saying things like “we could be a lot harder on them” is believable, except for time when say:
-USSM Author makes a case.
-Comment with (sometimes valid) counterpoint
-Angry, insult laced retort by USSM.
-Comment responds (but is deleted).
Behind the scenes I could believe that deletion may have been well justified, however, from a 3rd party perspective, it looks pretty bad. Which isn’t to say you guys are actually Stalinist, just that it sometimes looks that way.
Show me an “angry, insult laced retort by USSM”.
I’m not seeing them, and I’m curious what qualifies in your eyes.
Just hit ctrl-f and enter “Dave.” His first several comments contain insulting language (i.e. “don’t be an idiot,” “ignorant masses,” “worst comparison in history of mankind”). I could go further but why bother, its no secret that emotions have been riding high in this thread.
Also, I apologize for using the term “Stalinist,” thats obviously a huge exaggeration. A more apt term would probably be “O’ Reillyesque.”
I like USSM a lot and I think its clearly the most educated Seattle sports website there is. I’m not trying to badmouth USSM, I’m just sharing an observation about a pattern of behavior I don’t particularly care for.
Saying that someone shouldn’t be an idiot in is, again, != saying that person’s an idiot.
Saying that something might be the worst comparison in the history of mankind is not an “angry, insult laced retort”.
As for the masses thing, well, I can see how that reads.
And yet I still don’t read these as “angry, insult laced”.
Don’t be an idiot, DMZ, of course saying “don’t be an idiot” is insulting.
The anger in these posts is undeniable. As far as insult laced, yeah, there is insulting language used in some of these posts. I wasn’t saying that one post in itself had 10+ insults in it, just that this thread does.
And to be fair to you, I noticed that you kept yourself completely under control in this thread. So by saying “USSM author” I probably should have been more specific.
Well, yeah…most people liked to be blamed for what they actually do and say….I mean, if you blame one person for what someone else does, you come off looking like an….idiot….
Which thankfully I didn’t, so I’m not. I was just complimenting DMZ as a way to bridge the gap in our disagreement. Heck, if I obsessed and had done as much work as these guys have on the Jones/Bedard trade, and had as strong a position as them, I’d probably be upset too.
Colorado M’s Fan – I take my hat off to you for your correct assessment of the current USSM issues. I think Dave ought to be more mature about this whole thing. Yes, he’s tired of arguments based on unreliable evidence, but he still needs to act like an adult and not just insult anyone who disagrees with him.
I’ve already said, once, that this is not the “Dave is a big meanie” thread.
Don’t mistake DMZ trying to be nice and address your concerns as an excuse to keep bashing Dave.