Jose Vidro signs with Red Sox
Today, the Boston Red Sox announced the signing of Sean Casey to a 1 year, $750,000 deal to fill a spot on their bench. He’s slotted in to be their backup first baseman and occassional pinch hitter. Barring an unforseen injury, he’ll probably get 150-200 at-bats this year.
In case you hadn’t noticed, Sean Casey and Jose Vidro are the exact same hitter. Here are their 2007 performances:
BA: Vidro, .314; Casey, .297
OBP: Vidro, .378; Casey, .354
SLG: Vidro, .394; Casey, .395
BB%: Vidro, 10.8%; Casey, 9.9%
K%: Vidro, 9.1%; Casey, 8.3%
GB%: Vidro, 51%; Casey, 49%
LD%: Vidro, 19%; Casey, 20%
The entire difference between Jose Vidro and Sean Casey’s 2007 performance could be chalked up to infield singles; Sean Casey got 6, while Jose Vidro got 15. There’s just no reason to believe that Vidro’s ridiculously high number of infield hits had anything to do with his skills. If you convert nine of Sean Casey’s outs into infield singles, he’d have hit .315/.371/.413. Eliminating infield singles from the big picture, Casey and Vidro had the exact same batting average last year. Vidro has the tiniest edge in walk rate, but Casey has an equally small edge in power.
You can’t find two more similar hitters alive right now. They were born a month apart in 1974. They both used to be very good players. They’ve both battled injury problems and now live off their ability to make contact and hit singles. The projections for 2008 are basically identical across the board, no matter what projection system you want to use. These guys are offensive twins.
There are, however, two differences. Sean Casey can still play defense (he’d be a significant upgrade with the glove over Richie Sexson) and everyone else in baseball realizes that this skillset isn’t good enough to lay claim to a starting job.
Every other team in baseball looked at this skillset and said “not interested”. The Red Sox looked at this skillset and said “useful bench player if he’ll play for nothing”. The Mariners looked at this skillset and said “Starting DH, $6 million salary, #2 hitter”.
Useful players that signed this winter for less than the $5 million difference in salary between Vidro and Casey: Milton Bradley, Adam Everett, Cliff Floyd, Jason Jennings, Jon Lieber, Jeremy Affeldt, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood, LaTroy Hawkins, and Mark Hendrickson.
The lesson, as always – the Mariners continue to get destroyed by every other organization in baseball when it comes to building their roster.
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That was cruel…..when I first read the title I thought “Hell yeah! The M’s worked out some kind of deal to get rid of Turbo!”
The I read the first sentence.
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.
Where did this organization go wrong? It wasn’t more than 6 years ago we won 116 games. Before that we had such potential and greatness with JR., A-Rod, The Unit, Edgar, Buhner. What happened?
Just another badge of shame to sew on to the incompetence sash.
While I hope that it does not happen, I expect Vidro to absolutely tank this year and put up a Bloomquist/Cairo line. That would be fine if he could still run and play defense at a minimal expense.
What boggles my mind about the Bedard trade is the M’s somehow just think that Vidro, Sexson and Wilkerson will improve and provide enough offense to help out the starting rotation, even though all three have been declining for years. That is one third of the lineup, at RF, DH, and 1B no less. What will the M’s do when, in June, they realize that they need to drastically improve 33% of their lineup. I don’t see Wlad, Clement, Morse, or any other farm hand providing a big boost, at least not this season. I pray that I am wrong in thinking that those three spots in the lineup will doom the 2008 M’s.
You are dead to me.
Except for, you know, the content of your post. That proves yet again how terrible the Mariners are at judging talent.
But your subject – dead to me.
Being a Mariners fan is odd.
If we were more pathetic (re: the Pirates, Orioles), then someone would recognize that drastic change needed to happen.
As it stands, we’re just good enough to never be good enough. I think we’re in baseball limbo – not hell, but just sort of stuck hoping/praying to get to the next level and knowing there isn’t anything *we* can do to make it happen.
If I had a beard I’d weep in it.
‘How do the Sox sign Vidro?’ I ask myself. Oh, nevermind.
What’s funnier is how many of us are updating at quarter after 10pm PST. Isn’t it a bit late there, Dave? I never thought to put Vidro and Casey together, but it is uncanny. Good for the Sox though. I suppose that’s part of the reason they’re world champions.
the Mariners continue to get destroyed by every other organization in baseball when it comes to building their roster.
Houston takes offense.
I thought I was pretty clever when I came up with the response “What about a one-two punch though?” but (#2) “I just threw up in my mouth a little bit” is way funnier.
#8, you realize that the Orioles are the team that we are currently working a trade with.
A1. Then again, A1.
A1 to that, brother.
They seem more like the ’same’ hitter to me than the ‘exact same’ – 24 or 28 (ESPN says OBP is .381 -.353) points of OBP should be worth something and Vidro’s ‘Runs Created’ #’s look better than Casey’s – but I quibble.
This post sums up pretty succinctly why Billy B. should not be employed as a MLB GM. Of Course, BB also agreed to give up some talent for Vidro along with the cash. Still… he could have, he has and he will do worse.
Dave, you mentioned Adam Everett in your post, and his name really sticks out in that group. When everyone from analyst to scout agrees that he’s the best defender on the planet, why is it that he can’t command more than $2.8 million on the market? Wouldn’t his value to a team like Detroit–who needs to fill a gaping wound on the left side of the diamond, and has more offense than the Pentagon–drive his market value higher than what Minnesota paid? Did his injury scare people off?
Even if GM’s undervalue defense, it seems like Everett would be the one guy they wouldn’t overlook.
I wish that the Mariners got rid of Vidro. I think he is just blocking the way for Ibanez to take over at DH and have I guess some filler that can play outfield defense over at LF. Here’s to hoping he will suck next year and be DFA by June.
By the way Dave or Derek, if Vidro isn’t DFA next year, wouldn’t this deal drastically reduce Vidro’s value?
Wouldn’t his value to a team like Detroit–who needs to fill a gaping wound on the left side of the diamond, and has more offense than the Pentagon–drive his market value higher than what Minnesota paid?
Um, the gaping wound that is Edgar Renteria or the gaping wound that is Miguel Cabrera? I’m pretty sure that the Tigers are happy with the trades they made to man the left side of their infield.
The M’s have pretty much proven they are incapable of spotting talent, developing talent or keeping young talent healthy. Even Felix: didn’t we all think that the promise of his first couple of starts last year was basically what he should have been all along? Jeremy Reed comes here as the number two prospect in baseball, hits the cover off the ball for a month under Melvin, then we under Hargrove drops off the face of the earth. Yuni and Lopez don’t develop. Heck, we tried out a million stiffs in left field (and look at what we traded for them), while never giving Ibanez a shot, only to have to ransom him back from Kansas City and anoint him the new Mr. Mariner. We used to have both the starting catchers in this year’s World Series. Can you tell me what insurance company is currently employing Jon Christensen? Oh, and remember all the untradeable AAA and AA pitchers early in this decade? How many of them were on the All-Star team again?
My point is that if you know your farm system is basically nothing but a vast wasteland, then you keep looking at the grass on the other side of the mountain and pronounce it green. And since you have an excess of the long green, product of the taxpayers paying for Safeco and our memories from 1995-2001, you throw it away on a Jose Vidro or anyone from the 2002 Angels whose not nailed down or nailed into a coffin.
A Billy Beane, watching Vidro’s 2007 season, would have been planning to peddle him at the top of the market, knowing he’d have Ibanez as DH followed by Balentien. Even if no one would overpay for him, at least he’d be gone and your offense would improve because essentially anyone not named Willie Bloomquist would have more isolated power.
Going into the season expecting batting average lightning to make up for all the other things Vidro can’t do is the kind of optimism that doesn’t work past Opening Day.
And Sean Casey, as empty as his talent level is, probably will give the Red Sox more offense than we’ll get at not just DH, but first base, too. And maybe second base. And maybe shortstop. And maybe right field.
How’s your Premier League team doing?
I saw two new posts. First it said, Jose Vidro signed with Red Sox and then the M’s were going to win 105 games. I didn’t know that getting rid of Vidro would improve our chances so much.
#18-
Gaping wound = defense. Adam Everett (vacuum) would be well suited to play next to Miguel Cabrera (statue). They don’t need offense, they’re already loaded.
Great post Dave. The last sentence really hammered home the idea of opportunity cost, something the Mariners don’t seem to understand at all.
The first time, anyway. When you see it every other week on this site, it gets a bit old.
Gaping wound = defense. Adam Everett (vacuum) would be well suited to play next to Miguel Cabrera (statue).
The Tigers got Rentaria to play shortstop. If they wanted someone like Adam Everett, they could have gone with Ramon Santiago, or even Brandon Inge–Everett looks like all glove and no bat.
The Tigers think that Cabrera, who lost 20 pounds so far this offseason, can improve his defense to respectability if he stays in shape and focused.
Bavasi is probably pissed he couldn’t get Casey. Its easy to forget sometimes that he is building a 2003-2004 All-Star team over here. So Casey would be a good pickup.
Love the Vidro/Casey comparison. The fact that NEITHER shows up anywhere on each others ’similar batter’ lists at bbref is a true demonstration that said system leaves a great deal to be desired.
In all fairness, though – Casey/Vidro were basically identical when the Tigers traded for him, (making 8.5 million at the time), and THEN signed Casey to a 4 million dollar deal with him starting all year in 2007.
So, the Tigers, (who have been lauded for their rebuilding job), basically shelled out 8 million for 1.5 seasons of Casey.
No doubt that Boston got a deal – based almost entirely on Casey’s desire for another shot at a WS ring.
This doesn’t mean that Vidro isn’t overpaid. He is.
Nor does it mean that giving multiple years to a ho-hum singles hitter was a dubious decision. But, getting a 110 OPS+ veteran hitter for 6-8 million is actually about where the market stands today.
and Vidro doesn’t even have the Mayor’s personality.
oh, and 19? Jeremy Reed was never the #2 prospect in baseball, even when slathered with oodles of hyperbole.
#19 — I can’t blame the M’s completely for Reed’s struggles. He does have some serious holes in his swing that will probably never be fixed, even if he had been given a fairer opportunity under Grover.
Yuni has developed into a capable MLB shortstop. Bavasi did sign Joh, who is an upgrade over JoeJessica.
I will blame the M’s for things that they do wrong, but Reed, Yuni and Joh are not among their mistakes.
And West Ham sit comfortably in mid-table.
Where’s your optimistic spirit? Didn’t you hear John McLaren bet on KJR that Sexson would be the comeback player of the year? Of course he put nothing at stake when he said that. So I herewith take him up on that bet. I’ll put up $1000 against McLaren that Sexson will not win the comeback award. The Mariners are basically taking the position that Vidro, Sexson, Ibanez and others will have resurgent seasons. But the only thing they have to support that is optimism: “They will do well because I am optimistic.” That, and the fact that McLaren and Bavasi and others will lose their jobs if it doesn’t work out that way.
“that’s why they have the comeback player award”
This post made me think of when we traded for Vidro. Now I wonder if this Bedard trade will be more crippling to our trade possibilities in the future. First GM’s laughed at us when Bavasi gave away a dominant RP in Soriano for a pitcher that was about to be DFA’ed (HoRam). Then Bavasi is the only one who wanted to trade for a no power/no speed/with leg injuries 2B to play DH in Vidro(and then gave him a vesting 3rd year for the hell of it??). Now with the Bedard trade-yes we are getting an ace I’m sure we will all cherish. But we just gave up a boatload of talent. Anyone else fear GM’s will think they can fleece Bavasi for more talent than they should get/can get from anyone else?
I imagine every GM in the league has Bavasi on speed-dial at this point, and are trying to rob him on a daily basis.
From everything I’ve heard, MLB GMs are a little bit of an “old boys’ club” to a certain extent, but (especially the younger, smarter guys like Epstein) they can certainly smell blood in the water.
This is something that’s underappreciated by some folks. THe number of decent prospects traded reduces our ability to promote AND our ability to trade. No matter what you think of prospects and their ability to contribute to the future, you’re reducing your room to maneuver. That means, more than ever, that you have to satisfied with what you have, because you’ve reduced your options to upgrade and improve.
Fascinating and accurate comparison. Casey would be a great addition to the M’s 2008 ad campaign, though.
Speaking of the Bo-Sox, any chance the M’s make a move for Coco?
With what?
The Sox would be happy to take Truinfel off our hands for Coco …
you think Coco would cost that much?
NO … high sarcasm. I’m just saying that Theo would fleece BB. I wouldn’t mind seeing Coco in LF but I’d be scared to death to see what the M’s would give up.
good point.
We traded Piniella once. Can we trade Bavasi?
to who?
#42 I bet Brian Sabian could use some expert Bavasi advice, the offense over there is all holes and who better then Bavasi to help him trade away the young pitching staff to build it.
Can Coco and the Moose co-exist in the same clubhouse?
Speaking of Casey, why didn’t the M’s sign him? He was the nicest guy on the market … great clubhouse guy … regarded as the nicest guy in baseball. Seems like the perfect signing for the M’s FO.
34 – Loved the comment about being a great addition to the M’s 2008 Ad campaign!
If I remember correctly when I was reading Moneyball, the suggestion what that a point of OBP was worth 3 points of Slugging. Is this still held to be the case? Am I even remembering things correctly? In any case, if Casey projects to have a .360-.370 OBP isn’t he one of the cheapest comodities on the market even if he doesn’t have much raw power given the above assumption?
26 -
That’s very true, but I think it just shows why the long(er)-term commitment to Vidro was the reason that decision stunk (nothing to do w/Snelling).
Hitters like this are incredibly volatile due to BABIP swings, and as we can see, while the two started off as equivalents in terms of contracts that they commanded, one has dropped to under $1m whereas the other is still locked in to an $8M+ deal for the next year (and possibly 09).
The Tigers shelled out $8m for 1.5 seasons of Casey, and the M’s *MAY* be on the hook for over $20m for Vidro. No contest.
A one-year deal for Vidro (or Casey or pick another contact hitter) wouldn’t have been so bad.
FWIW, Johan Santana is a summa cum laude graduate of the School of Baseball Cliches.
I love, love, love this blog. It never fails to cheer me up about my own team’s direction.
#48
It’s hard to be optimistic when nothing that management does seems to make any sense. If you want to hear some delusional optimism, check out Mac’s interview on KJR
#48
If down is a direction, then we’ve got one too.
I agree with the general point, although I’d quibble with some of the names as to whether they’re “useful players.”
The best part about USSM is that it makes you so depressed that the regular season actual begins to fill you with hope because no matter what they will out perform our over-deflated expectations. Odds are they will be somewhat in contention for most of the year. We will love every minute of it and at the end reality will come crashing down, but not after we had a fun 4-5 months.
Go away.
The cure for “over-deflated expectations” is one click away.
You know, when a blog reports reality of the situation for a franchise marred in mediocrity, the outlook is not optimistic. Get over it or go to a site that doesn’t deal in reality.
#53, this is in the spirit of your message.
George Will wrote (in various forms over the years): “The advantage pessimists have over others is that they are right most of the time. And when they are wrong, they are pleased to be so.”
Written like a true baseball fan! Most of his suffering has been caused by the Cubs but it could equally well be the Mariners.
Some say that USSMariner is too pessimistic. But what I find is that the pessimism is derived from careful analysis. The optimists cannot rely on analysis because the facts don’t support their hoped-for outcome. All teams take advantage of that by pumping up those hopes. In the end, the crash is all the more painful for finding onself to have been deluded all along.
Who wants to bet that in June of ‘09 our new GM is trying to flip Bedard for prospects at the trading deadline?
Hey, everyone’s for reality.
But if 7 speaks for the majority of posters here: “proves yet again how terrible the Mariners are at judging talent”–then where did we get all five of those outstanding talents purportedly headed to the Orioles? Also, as 28 points out, Yuni and Jo? And maybe Morrow and Clement?
Should there at least be a distinction made between trades and player development?
We’ve made that distinction countless times. If you search for “Bob Fontaine” on this site, you’ll find nothing but rave reviews for how well he and his scouting team have done adding talent to the farm system the last few years.
53 – I’m pretty sure it wasn’t my pessimism that made the M’s crash last season. But if it wasn’t me, what could have done it…
Pony time!
Wonderful thought-provoking post, Derek. You could have added that the Mariners needlessly squandered not just money, but also players to secure the services of Mr. Vidro.
So, Geoff Baker is now contending this. I don’t agree with his counterargument at all. I also think he pretty much missed the point that Vidro and Casey are enough alike that paying one guy $6 million per year (not to mention the loss of talent via trade) is a pretty crappy move when the other is getting paid table scraps.
I don’t understand why he’d even bother. Even if some of us are too hard on Vidro, there is absolutely no logical way you can justify the trade by comparing him to Casey.
Sorry, Arbek. Do you really think a new GM would be dumping Bedard? (Or be allowed to?)
This is the Mariners (warning, pony-free pessimism ahead). They’ll hang on to him to the bitter end, rather than risk losing fans. Probably after deciding that, while 6 games back at the deadline, that they are “just a short winning streak away” from getting right back into it.
Of course, you could argue that a smart, empowered GM *should* be dumping him for prospects by then…
Here’s a list of every DH who had more than 450 plate appearances in 2007: David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Jose Vidro, Frank Thomas, Aubrey Huff, Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome and Sammy Sosa.
So Turbo was either the worst or second-worst regular DH in baseball.
So when Bavasi leaves, and Fontaine and his scouts with him, are we going to hear once again about how “the cupboard is bare” because Bavasi, with no basis to be looking for the long term, traded everything away to win immediately? And will the next GM, after that first couple of years of trying to rebuild while blaming Bavasi, be put “on the hot seat” to win immediately, thus emptying out the cupboard for the next GM? And so on? Because I already know how this story goes, and it doesn’t get any better when only the actors are different.
Woody Woodard, Pat Gillick, Bill Bavasi.
People wonder why pessimism exists.
from Hickey:
“If you’re waiting around for news that Erik Bedard is finally a Mariner, maybe you need to do something else for a bit. For one thing, as of 1 p.m. (PST), Bedard was still at home in Ottawa, and it’s not at all clear when he will be en route to Seattle. It’s possible he won’t travel until Thursday.
That means no announcement will be made before Friday, if then. So if you’ve got something else to do for the time being, feel free to go ahead and do it.”
That is totally ot.
If you come back in five years and say, “I told you so”, I promise I won’t react…
Hey, c’mon guys. I know Bavasi has had a rough spring, but he always has a rough spring. He’ll heat up around July or August.
Oh, is
a1
off-topic?
um, I bet Hickey & Bedard both think Vidro is just Sean Casey under another name.
Well, to be fair, I’m sure sometimes the Mariners look at a guy and say “Useful bench player if he’ll play for nothing,” and then find out that basically, most of those guys aren’t willing to play for nothing in Seattle. (But are willing to play for nothing to be in, say, Boston.)
Hmm. It’d be funny to try to collect The Mayor (Casey), the Governor (Sherrill), and El Presidente (Santana) all on a team someday.