M’s to win 105 games

DMZ · February 5, 2008 at 8:01 am · Filed Under Mariners 

They won 88 games, right? And they exceeded what you’d expect for the runs they scored and gave up, but that’s a product of having Weaver and HoRam getting blown out all the time and the bullpen. So replacing Weaver and HoRam, with Silva/Bedard, that’s ten wins, Sexson has to rebound so you get another four wins there, Lopez is a good young player and he should improve so that’s another two wins from last year. Then you take the ace pressure off Felix, that’s another win as he’s more comfortable.

105. No problem.

Comments

135 Responses to “M’s to win 105 games”

  1. ctillisc on February 5th, 2008 9:05 am

    sounds realistic

  2. Jar on February 5th, 2008 9:09 am

    [Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo]

  3. bellacaramella on February 5th, 2008 9:09 am

    Yeah. That’s the ticket.

  4. jeffinfremont on February 5th, 2008 9:13 am

    So who will knock ‘em out in the ALCS this time?

  5. Jar on February 5th, 2008 9:14 am

    sorry, I couldn’t resist. That was bad huh….

  6. LMF on February 5th, 2008 9:16 am

    Don’t forget about the addition gritty/crafty veterans Cairo and Wilkerson, that’s at least worth 1 win right? Do I hear 106?

  7. Doc Baseball on February 5th, 2008 9:24 am

    Not only do they win 105 this year — but the future is bright as well !

    The M’s still have their TOP 3 pitching prospects (Morrow, Ramirez, Aumont), not to mention EOF and RRS. They still have ALL NINE of their top position prospects — all rated as likely regular major leaguers or higher — including of course Miguel Cabrera II (Triunfel), as well as 2 catchers, 3 other infielders, and 3 outfielders. They have SIX more pitching prospects, all rated as likely regular major leaguers once they develop. And they have AAAA fodder like Morse and Navarro, as well as interesting possibilities like Mark Lowe.

    And either Bedard works out great, or he signs somewhere else in two years — in which case, the M’s get 2 great draft picks — so they either have a stud for many years to come (Bedard) — or a stud for 2 years, who then turns into 2 studs for years to come.

    Life in Mariner land is coming up roses….

  8. IdahoInvader on February 5th, 2008 9:29 am

    Its all a sure thing…except Lopez

    ;-)

  9. Doc Baseball on February 5th, 2008 9:29 am

    Don’t forget about the addition gritty/crafty veterans Cairo and Wilkerson
    Wilkerson … lefty … Safeco … good athlete revitalizing his career … will equal Guillen at the plate, be better in the field … definitely worth one win more.

    But the other addition we keep forgetting about is …

    R. A. !

    Dickey has got to be worth one more win — both for what he’ll bring himself, as well as for how he will set up Felix & Bedard. That would just be unfair to have to face those guys after seeing R.A. And everyone will be so rested, there’ll be no August swoon this year.

    I think 107 it is.

  10. Jar on February 5th, 2008 9:32 am

    And we finally got an “Ace”, cause everyone know you can’t win anything without an “Ace” at the “TotR”. In the playoffs they will go undefeated.

  11. ajdaddy on February 5th, 2008 9:33 am

    Dickey as the change of pace in the rotation, Morrow blossoms, Richie hits 40, I’m drinkin the Kool-Aid, baby!

  12. Doc Baseball on February 5th, 2008 9:40 am

    Oh, and no worries about losing George (except for how awesome he is as a person … sigh). On the baseball field, Cesar Jimenez jumps right in there to fill his role.

    Willie steals some late-inning money bags

    Ahhh, it’s all good….

  13. PositivePaul on February 5th, 2008 9:42 am

    [that is just uncalled for]

  14. JMHawkins on February 5th, 2008 9:50 am

    a1

  15. Slippery Elmer on February 5th, 2008 9:55 am

    I know Doc Baseball is posting under the influence of powerful sarcotics, but that post (#7) did actually give me some hope for the Mariners’ future.

  16. Sports on a Schtick on February 5th, 2008 9:56 am

    If the Moose keeps running over opposing players he’s at least one win above a replacement level mascot.

  17. Desmond on February 5th, 2008 9:57 am

    Ahhhh, yes…. Ignorance is bliss!

  18. Dave Clapper on February 5th, 2008 9:59 am

    USS Mariner is so full of pessimists. The M’s will break the record they tied in 2001. They’re winning 117, easy.

  19. smb on February 5th, 2008 10:00 am

    Put down the bottle, for Chrissakes. It’s not even 10!

  20. mariners23 on February 5th, 2008 10:00 am

    Was this a sarcastic post?

  21. Logger on February 5th, 2008 10:01 am

    Um, yeah.

  22. Manzanillos Cup on February 5th, 2008 10:02 am

    Well Pecota, one of the best projection system out there, had them at 73 before last season. And DMZ had them at about .500, “with a huge risk of collapse”. With Sexson, Lopez, Ramirez, and Weaver playing like they did (What counts as a collapse? I guess four below-replacement-level starters don’t.) the M’s won 88 games.

    It’s hard to project records. Is 105 less likely than 75 for 2008? Probably, but how much more unlikely? I get the mocking of the shallow methodology, but there’s a good percentage of the time where the smart guys get it completely wrong too.

  23. AuburnM on February 5th, 2008 10:02 am

    Let’s see:

    Offense: No change from last year

    Defense: No change from last year

    Bullpen: Sherrill is a big loss, but the pen still looks plenty strong.

    Starting Pitching: Major, MAJOR upgrade over last year.

    Yup, we’re gonna suck for sure.

  24. Otto on February 5th, 2008 10:04 am

    You can feel the optimism in the air here!

  25. Sec 108 on February 5th, 2008 10:11 am

    Let’ see:

    Offense: Step backwards unless a miracle happens somewhere in the lineup. We are old getting older.

    Defense: Step backwards or no change as you cannot reasonably expect Richie or Raul to improve. Slight upgrade in RF.

    Bullpen: Sherrill is a huge subtraction. We will be worse at getting the ball to Putz. Can anyone say 2+ inning saves?

    Starting Pitching: Washburn and Batista regress. Silva is not very good. Felix and Bedard rock!

    Not a terrible team, but also not one that strikes fear in the hearts of NYY, BoSox, Tigers, Indians or even the Angels.

  26. galaxieboi on February 5th, 2008 10:19 am

    Dude, this was a really funny post until people started talking about 105 wins seriously. Bah.

    “Neck and neck with the A’s, who against all odds simply promoted their Double-A squad to the bigs the M’s traded unproven and non-veteran Carlos Triunfel to the Cincinnati Reds for Ken Griffey Jr. Junior is expected to provide an addition bat in the first base/DH/old man/no defense platoon of Vidro/Wilkerson/Ibanez/dead cat.

    ‘While I plan on having a discussion with him about how he wears his hat during warm-ups I fully expect Ken to provide more veteran leadership to the young fellas,’ states manager John McLaren.

    Willie Bloomquist, who was in the DH rotation, could not be reached for comment. He was last seen leaving Butch’s Gun Shop on Aurora Ave.”

  27. Mike Snow on February 5th, 2008 10:19 am

    Also, the USS Mariner mascot will grow antlers.

  28. go_cougs on February 5th, 2008 10:22 am

    #26 How many wins above replacement level is the dead cat?

  29. schneidler on February 5th, 2008 10:24 am

    Nice post, that is about the type of analysis tons of fans employ. I like comment #20. : – ) Answer: YES.

  30. CecilFielderRules on February 5th, 2008 10:25 am

    #23 – “Offense: No change from last year”

    How in the world is that the case? Even if you expect all the returning players to net out the same production (big IF there), is Wilkerson replacing Jose Guillen’s 813 OPS over 650 plate appearances in the middle of the order?

  31. jlc on February 5th, 2008 10:27 am

    105 wins AND a pink pony give-away night.

  32. msb on February 5th, 2008 10:33 am

    even my wife, Morgan Fairchild, agrees…. 105 wins!

  33. rea on February 5th, 2008 10:34 am

    You laugh, but it could happen.

    Of course, space aliens might force Jamie Lynn Spears to bear Elvis’ love child, too.

  34. nuin on February 5th, 2008 10:35 am

    yeah, right. I will post a larger comment later, I am talking to Santa at the moment.

  35. pumpkinhead on February 5th, 2008 10:41 am

    Man… I can’t believe Sexson is coming back in the Spring. Any chance he’ll get axed if he plays poorly in Arizona? Even a little chance?

  36. rrose on February 5th, 2008 10:47 am

    You didn’t even mention the added veteran presence. Isn’t that the most important ingredient of all?

  37. Mustard on February 5th, 2008 10:51 am

    DMZ, were you the mystery caller who called into MLB TV yesterday and said the Mariners would win 105 games? Then also said the Mariners had one of the top 5 pitching staff’s in baseball. Brought tears to my eyes. =)

  38. fetish on February 5th, 2008 10:51 am

    OK. We’re pouring 17 wins into the wide mouthed top of the funnel.

    How many wins are trickling out the bottom?

  39. rjh16 on February 5th, 2008 10:57 am

    [button term violation]

  40. pdb on February 5th, 2008 11:01 am

    rjh16:

    huh?

  41. Goob on February 5th, 2008 11:03 am

    Come on guys, there’s [i]no way[/i] this team does any worse than 110 wins. Easy. In fact, I predict they’ll win at least 100 by the end of April.

  42. terry on February 5th, 2008 11:03 am

    Shouldn’t the addition of Mel Stottlemyre to the coaching staff add another 5 wins worth of run prevention?

  43. rjh16 on February 5th, 2008 11:07 am

    I would much rather think about how good this team could be then to dwell on the negatives

  44. smb on February 5th, 2008 11:14 am

    What good is hope if it has no basis in reality? I call that setting oneself up for disappointment. The Royals and Pirates need more fans like you! No offense intended.

    This FO is going to spend the rest of time trying to duplicate a once in a millennium event, which is winning 116 games with a bunch of ho-hummer gritty veterans who all simultaneously have career years. I swear, 2001 was the worst thing to ever happen to this organization. It was like winning 500 grand off a scratch ticket, and everything they’ve done since has been like quitting your job so you can play scratch tickets full time.

  45. PositivePaul on February 5th, 2008 11:18 am

    Only 105? Pshhhaaaawww. Y’all are still pessimists…

    117! 117! 117!

  46. PositivePaul on February 5th, 2008 11:28 am

    Oh, and I didn’t give my reason for the 117. Having Julio Mateo off the team to start the year clearly is worth 12 wins by itself.

  47. sass on February 5th, 2008 11:31 am

    44, if we gave up every year the outlook was bleak, we wouldn’t be Mariners fans. Year after crappy year goes by with the Mariners not willing to become a big time program, the owners just sitting back and reaping the profits. The Royals and Pirates aren’t that bad of a comparison (The Royals have won a series since the M’s inception, right?), except the M’s have a lot more money to spend, therefore far fewer excuses.

  48. garhof on February 5th, 2008 11:31 am

    # 44 -

    Exactly. What were the preseason predictions for the ’01 team? About 90 wins?

  49. sodomojojojo on February 5th, 2008 11:32 am

    Yippee…I LOVE when we play the “glad game.”

    Can’t we also be glad to add a couple of more wins because the groundhog saw his shadow?

  50. huhwhat on February 5th, 2008 11:35 am

    For some reason when I think about how well people think this team will do this coming season I for some reason see this pop up in my thoughts:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM

    Also with that shutdown every ball in play fielding corner OF duo in Wilkerson and Ibanez, that must add like what 15 wins itself. 120 wins here we come.

  51. scraps on February 5th, 2008 11:38 am

    Is 105 less likely than 75 for 2008? Probably, but how much more unlikely?

    I’m just guessing, but I’ll bet that the ZIPS projections show a hundred seasons of 75 wins for every one 105-win season for the Mariners this year.

  52. MER on February 5th, 2008 11:52 am

    105 wins…..if we count spring training games! On second thought, I would still take that.

  53. msb on February 5th, 2008 11:52 am

    excuse me? Reitsma & Rhodes??

    talk about your win potential.

  54. msb on February 5th, 2008 11:55 am

    ah, heck. throw in the whole bullpen.

  55. Evan on February 5th, 2008 11:57 am

    In the first part of the season, at least, the Jeff Weaver sucks explanation actually does a pretty good job of dealing with the pythagorean record. Weaver was giving up so many runs that he was bringing down the team’s pygatheorean record all by himself.

    I talked to Clay Davemport about it – he was considering changing WARP3 to rely on support-neutral pitching metrics to avoid the problem in his Pythagenport charts.

  56. The Ancient Mariner on February 5th, 2008 11:57 am

    Actually, I think R. A. Dickey could be a major surprise this year; he has much better supporting stuff than most knuckleballers.

    I don’t think that’s enough to offset everything else, even if it happens, but hey, every little bit helps.

  57. marinerfaninvenice on February 5th, 2008 12:09 pm

    Better question is whether 95 is less likely than 75, and I’d say no.

    I’ve posted the question before, but haven’t seen an answer — what is the statistical evidence that Sexson won’t bounce back TOWARDS his career averages. I’m not saying 40/115 and .260/.340/.515, but something like 33/100 and .250/.330/.510 seems feasable. What are his PECOTA projections? Any other trend lines for similar players who had a down year?

    Heading into 2001, how many people projected 100 wins for the M’s, let alone 116? I know 2001′s OF defense was vastly superior, but looking at that roster heading into the season (Al Martin in LF, starting rotation with one power pitcher, David Bell at 3B) one could poke nearly as many holes as you could this year’s roster.

    Are there historical preseason projections for 2001? I’d love to see that data if someone has it.

  58. currcoug on February 5th, 2008 12:12 pm

    Wilkerson away from the hitter-friendly confines of Arlington Stadium in 2007:

    .195 .277 .402 .679

    Ugh.

  59. ChrisK on February 5th, 2008 12:12 pm

    Let’s not forget – the entire team improves 20% because of the awesome new coaching staff and their winning attitude. Add another 2 wins there and we are 1 game better than the 2001 team! 117 wins!

  60. ChrisK on February 5th, 2008 12:12 pm

    Let’s not forget – the entire team improves 20% because of the awesome new coaching staff and their winning attitude.

  61. terry on February 5th, 2008 12:13 pm

    Sexson’s 2008 as per Pecota: .245/.333/.433 VORP=7

  62. smb on February 5th, 2008 12:14 pm

    sass,

    I dig, and I still have hopes. I still believe there’s a (way) outside shot we somehow creep into the playoffs, although I would put us winning a series against any of the other likely AL playoff teams as extremely unlikely, even with Felix and Bedard as a 1-2 in a short series.

    It is when I see something like a 105-win prediction, even a facetious one, made with any kind of intensity, faux or no, that I automatically go into incredulous mode. Having confidence about this lineup will only feed the beast! The beast must be starved. No cake for the beast.

  63. matthew on February 5th, 2008 12:16 pm

    a1

  64. msb on February 5th, 2008 12:26 pm

    Let’s not forget – the entire team improves 20% because of the awesome new coaching staff and their winning attitude.

    why, gosh, just listening to Mac right now on KJR?

    105 wins, easy.

  65. Nichos on February 5th, 2008 12:28 pm

    #49 – Ah the glad game, my glad moments are:

    The first scissor cut in a fresh sheet of construction paper.

    Hearing about the grit and determination required for Willie to steal that base in the 9th inning when everyone knew he was running. Good stuff

  66. Tuomas on February 5th, 2008 12:38 pm

    You know, the only time a trade like Bedard for Jones, GS52 and prospects would work is in a video game with balanced trading off. That means we have access to the Create-A-Player function. Seventeen year olds with Slugging above 1.000, here we come!

  67. Tom on February 5th, 2008 12:46 pm

    105 wins? Sweet.

    I’ll tell my dad to fly me out for the World Series. lol

  68. msb on February 5th, 2008 1:00 pm

    yay! KJR wants your baseball calls! Does adding Bedard make them a play off-team?

    I want at least one ’105 wins’ call.

  69. scott19 on February 5th, 2008 1:08 pm

    105 wins? In what parallel universe are we talking? :o

  70. The Ghost of Spike Owen on February 5th, 2008 1:16 pm

    How many wins do the ponies add? Seems like that should get us into 107-110 range easy.

  71. tad on February 5th, 2008 1:20 pm

    Thanks DMZ!

    With this healthy dose of optimism, I have just purchased season tickets! And a pony!

  72. VaughnStreet on February 5th, 2008 1:22 pm

    Mariners will win them all. 162 wins baby.

  73. loki on February 5th, 2008 1:27 pm

    Don’t forget that Raul Ibanez started the year off fighting through injuries then had a huge rebound… so as long as he is healthy all season, his numbers will be off the charts!

    Plus, his health should improve his defense as well! He’ll be MVP for sure!

  74. philosofool on February 5th, 2008 1:35 pm

    The thing is, that with King Felix 2nd in the rotation and Bedard first, the Red Sox won’t stand a chance against us in a play off series because Josh Beckett will be totally psyched out because knows that he has to win against Bedard because Dice-K can’t beat Hernandez. But he’ll be so psyched out that the Mariners offense will tear Beckett to shreds and then Kind Felix will totally stun Matsuzaka!

    One-two punch! One-two punch!!! ONE-TWO PUNCH!!!

  75. Ralph_Malph on February 5th, 2008 1:49 pm

    74 – If he becomes Kind Felix, we’re really in trouble.

  76. seadiv88 on February 5th, 2008 1:55 pm

    Restaurants in the Seattle area should be fined for serving Lopez anything more than 200 calories.

  77. JMHawkins on February 5th, 2008 1:57 pm

    Heading into 2001, how many people projected 100 wins for the M’s, let alone 116? I know 2001’s OF defense was vastly superior, but looking at that roster heading into the season (Al Martin in LF, starting rotation with one power pitcher, David Bell at 3B) one could poke nearly as many holes as you could this year’s roster.

    Well, the entire defense in 2001 was vastly superior. The 2001 team had exceptional defense at CF, RF, 1B and C, and average or better defense everywhere else (maybe Guillen at SS was slightly below average). The run from 2000 through 2003 was marked by great defense. The hitting and pitching was up and down, but the defense was always good during those years of 91, 116, 93 and 93 wins. There must be a lesson in there somewhere. Maybe.

  78. Joof on February 5th, 2008 2:04 pm

    How well can our pitchers hit? Because I was thinking we could play Reed in Left Field, and DH him with Ibanez. We get defense in Left field, plus a bat! It’s brilliant I say!

  79. msb on February 5th, 2008 2:10 pm

    If he becomes Kind Felix, we’re really in trouble.

    oh, don;t worry, he won’t be– don’t you remember? he’s going to pitch inside, and throw no more tantrums, and be A Man.

  80. dlb on February 5th, 2008 2:21 pm

    When Sexson and Beltre hit 50 bombs a piece we will laugh at ridiculously low 105 wins seems for this juggernaut.

  81. Doc Baseball on February 5th, 2008 2:30 pm

    the entire defense in 2001 was vastly superior.

    Boone played good defense that year, in addition to Ichiro, Cameron, and Olerud.

    But more than anything — that team had offense: 8 out of the 9 position players (including DH) ranked in the top 10 in the league in OPS. They scored over 925 runs. In Safeco.

    The lesson in there is not that it is pitching and defense.

    The lesson is build a team that gets a lot more runs than it lets the opponents get.

  82. Bearman on February 5th, 2008 2:46 pm

    DMZ I agree with some of the improvement you speak of a definate increase in wins is not fantasy but possible reality.

    However 105 which would be an increase of 17 wins is a bit farfetched and abit much to expect.
    Now say 92 to 95 wins is a bit more of a realistic number.

    However the following is a big part of how it could happen otherwise a repeat of last year is more in order +/- 3 games:

    1)Stottlemyre has to get the rotation and the pen pitching inside hit batters or no hit batters.
    Futher I believe that R.A. Dickey as the 5th SP should his mastery of the knuckleball be true as reported will add at least 4 wins to that total.
    The effects of a team having faced him in a series with a game to go will only benefit Bedard and/or Felix.
    Remember the quote from Jay Buhner after facing the knucleballer was “It always threw my swing off for a couple games after” and other hitters have made similar comments over the years.

    2)I agree both Reed and Balentien have to be on the bench to spell Ibanez in LF and at the plate.
    Mainly for defensive reasons and to have a RHBs to handle leftys if need be offensively.

    3)Wilkerson must step up as a LHB with some power both in his starts and off the bench as PHer.
    Also he needs to hone his skills as a 1stBman in case Sexson has another slump period or injury.

    4)The bullpen must be preserved and adjusted as the rotation may dictate as the season unfolds.
    However with the aquiring of Bedard and with Felix feeling less pressured to be the “man” along with inning eating ability of both Silva and Batista should help big time in preventing last years pen meltdown.

    5)A suitable replacement found for Sherrill in the pen among the available LHPers in AAA and among the vets(Rhodes/HoRam?/Freierabend/O’Flaherty or Roland-Smith).

    6)Finally the usual suspects have to have their usual year or better barring injury: Ichiro/Putz/Beltre/Betancourt etc….. and the D both at the OF and the INF has to be ready to field alot of popups and groundballs.

  83. HamNasty on February 5th, 2008 2:54 pm

    Who else is ready for ALCS MVP Willie Bloomquist filling in the outfield.
    .450/.500/.500 line with 3SB in 6 games just so Felix and Bedard can get 2 wins.

  84. scraps on February 5th, 2008 2:58 pm

    Please, please don’t moderate 82. It’s beautiful.

  85. galaxieboi on February 5th, 2008 3:03 pm

    Oh god, I thought he was kidding? That’s not sarcasm?? No wonder Dave and Derek get frustrated sometimes. Good grief.

  86. galaxieboi on February 5th, 2008 3:03 pm

    Oh god, I thought he was kidding? That’s not sarcasm?? No wonder Dave and Derek get frustrated sometimes. Good grief.

  87. Ballfour on February 5th, 2008 3:17 pm

    Everybody scores!!!!!!

  88. Doc Baseball on February 5th, 2008 3:18 pm

    #15 – I know Doc Baseball is posting under the influence of powerful sarcotics….

    “sarcotics”: sarcasm + heroin (works for me every time)

    Maybe I should pass some along to Bearman….

  89. Sklyansky on February 5th, 2008 3:19 pm

    80-That is so true, we signed them in 2005, and it takes a few years to adjust to a new league. Plus they’re both young whippersnappers, and will finally “get it” this year. I’d venture to say they’ll both have an OPS above .1300, and one, possibly both, may hit 70 HRs. Plus Ichiro will hit .500, and steal 300 bases. Its not outside the realm of possibility to win 150 games this year.

  90. Tuomas on February 5th, 2008 3:19 pm

    #82 is a Pollock amongst Hoppers.

  91. Tuomas on February 5th, 2008 3:21 pm

    89- I really really hope they’ll both have OPS higher than .130. 1.300 would be a lot nicer.

  92. Jeff Nye on February 5th, 2008 3:30 pm

    That’s actually pretty coherent, for a Bearman post.

  93. Red Apple on February 5th, 2008 3:30 pm

    105 in octal = 69 in decimal. Pretty close to the ZIPS projections.

  94. marinerfaninvenice on February 5th, 2008 3:39 pm

    It’s easy to be a hater, especially at USSM. If the M’s suck, you can say “I told you so”; if they surprise us and win, everyone’s happy.

    Why mock Bearman (#82)’s post, galaxieboi? He’s stating what *would* have to happen for the M’s to be successful.

    Lighten up and free your mind a bit. The trade’s going to happen so come to terms with it and try thinking of some scenarios where the M’s find success in 2008 — it’s not *that* far-fetched and it may be healthy for you to challenge your jaded, negative thinking.

    [my only spelling error is "galaxie" and "boi"]

  95. msb on February 5th, 2008 3:47 pm

    I want a jaded, negative little pony.

  96. Graham on February 5th, 2008 3:51 pm

    it may be healthy for you to challenge your jaded, negative thinking.

    Here I was thinking I was an analyst. I’ll stop using jaded, negative numbers, and stop watching jaded, negative video from now on.

    I shall only listen to happy, happy radio.

    Ponies for everyone!

  97. mark s on February 5th, 2008 3:53 pm

    It is like hearing my friends talk about baseball. Hilarious!

  98. Jeff Nye on February 5th, 2008 3:54 pm

    Maybe the comment area for each post should just be replaced with a big picture of a pony.

  99. msb on February 5th, 2008 3:57 pm
  100. ooter on February 5th, 2008 3:58 pm

    82 wins the unintentional comedy post of the day.

  101. MikeMLT on February 5th, 2008 4:01 pm

    I say I come for the intelligent baseball analysis but I really come for the ponies.

  102. milquetoast on February 5th, 2008 4:05 pm

    Speaking of projections, does anyone remember what the general feeling was for the 2001 team that won 116 games? I know we weren’t favorites to win the division but what were the win projections among the sabermetric community?

  103. galaxieboi on February 5th, 2008 4:06 pm

    marinerfaninvenice- You’re right. I need to go take some time to look at the ponies….

    …nope, I still don’t feel any better.

    My mockery has more to do with that this entire post was based upon sarcasm. I honestly thought he was being sarcastic because the way he responded to Derek’s original post, and I qoute

    DMZ I agree with some of the improvement you speak of a definate increase in wins is not fantasy but possible reality.

    However 105 which would be an increase of 17 wins is a bit farfetched and abit much to expect.
    Now say 92 to 95 wins is a bit more of a realistic number.

    I applaud Mr. Bearman and his boundless optimism for the coming season. Sadly, I am unable to share in his positive thinking because I’m sitting here looking at all the pieces and see well, something less than he sees. Much less.

    You have no spelling errors, sir. ‘Galaxie’ is a Ford. In particular my 1970 Galaxie. ‘Boi’ is simply a play on swapping out ‘y’s.

  104. 509Mike on February 5th, 2008 4:11 pm

    you can swing wins 5+/- depending on if Rick white is on the roster. (5+ if hes not). 110

  105. galaxieboi on February 5th, 2008 4:14 pm

    I’m also shocked to be informed that I’m a ‘hater’. Someone should’ve told me that years ago before I had spend untold hours cheering and crying for the team my entire life. They should’ve told me to make sure I hang onto other memories of my father besides the ones spent at the Kingdome trying to get Spike Owen’s autograph.

    I’m sorry you misjudge frustration for something you have years of emotional investment in for being a ‘hater’.

  106. dlb on February 5th, 2008 4:21 pm

    509Mike – Unfortunately the same wizard who ran Rick White out there to get bludgeoned to death will be back make those same decisions. Apparently the only pre-req that McLaren has is that the pitcher is a gritty veteran of who can pass for the fourth member of ZZ Top.

  107. Dan W on February 5th, 2008 4:28 pm

    Start with 88 wins in 2007, less 4 to get to upper end of pythag statistical variation. Add 7 for Bedard over the guy would would be in the rotation if Bedard’s not here (3.5 ERA vs 6.5 ERA for 200 innings – 10 runs = 1 win right?). We know Bavasi needs a good reason to not have Ramirez in the rotation and reasons don’t get any better than this.

    Add 2 for Silva instead of Weaver (4.5 vs 5.5 EAR for 200 innings). Subtract 1 for Wilkerson in right vs. Guillen.

    Ibanez, Beltre, Betancourt, Ichiro, Johjima = 2007. Vidro = 2007. Call those guys a wash in 2008. Subtract 1 since Sherrill > RRS/EOF. 91 wins, and with a couple of breaks we are watching meaningful September baseball.

  108. Dan W on February 5th, 2008 4:30 pm

    Last sentence should have read:

    “Ibanez, Beltre, Betancourt, Ichiro, Johjima = 2007. Vidro = 2007. Call those guys a wash in 2008.”

  109. 509Mike on February 5th, 2008 4:30 pm

    well 100 even after the R. White effect wouldnt be to bad as long as they don’t give him more appearance due to the loss of sherill

  110. MikeMLT on February 5th, 2008 4:39 pm

    Dan W-

    I’m guessing your estimate for Bedard over another pitcher is about double what it should be. More like 3-3.5 wins.

  111. Dan W on February 5th, 2008 4:40 pm

    How come I’ve added “Vidro LESS THAN 2007″ and “Sexson/Lopez GREATER THAN OR = 2007″ twice now but it still doesn’t show up in my posted comment? Jeez.

  112. HamNasty on February 5th, 2008 4:42 pm

    MSB # 95, pure gold.

    Little poll here, be honest, who else has download the My Little Pony theme?? No one??? Ya, me either… I swear. *Shift+Delete*

  113. Dan W on February 5th, 2008 4:42 pm

    Mike – I’m basing my estimate on Bedard vs Ramirez, since that’s who I think ends up in the #5 slot if Bedard’s not here. Plus, my baseline is the 07 record which included Ramirez.

  114. Tuomas on February 5th, 2008 4:42 pm

    His estimate of Silva’s effectiveness seems drastically high as well.

  115. MickieB on February 5th, 2008 4:48 pm

    I have to say, even being a WFB fan, I LOVE the pony!

  116. NODO Dweller on February 5th, 2008 4:54 pm

    Dan, because < and > are HTML markup characters.

  117. SpokaneMsFan on February 5th, 2008 4:55 pm

    Dan W – Not trying to just be pessimistic, but isn’t expecting an injury prone pitcher moving to a team with crummy defense to put up 200+ IP with a 3.5 ERA a little unrealistic. And I realize Bedard is awesome and would love to watch him pitch for the Ms. That being said I think you might be expecting a little much from the guy, and in large part due to the D which isn’t his fault.

  118. Dan W on February 5th, 2008 5:10 pm

    Spokane – fair enough. Maybe the ponies are having their intended effect, but I DO expect Bedard to do put up those kind of numbers. You could back that off a touch and bump up Felix a touch and still get to this result.

    The Mariner 4/5 starters last year had a combined 6.52 ERA, over 366 innings. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to project Bedard and Silva averaging a 4-4.5 ERA over those same innings, which would be an 80-100 run improvement over their 2007 counterparts.

  119. Jeff Nye on February 5th, 2008 6:12 pm

    Erik Bedard is awesome; I don’t think he is 7 win awesome.

  120. JMHawkins on February 5th, 2008 6:13 pm

    Do those ponies bite?

  121. MikeMLT on February 5th, 2008 6:22 pm

    I love that commercial. Is that wrong?

  122. mln on February 5th, 2008 6:26 pm

    I cannot believe all the pessimism from all the Negative Nancies here … predicting that the Mariners will *only* win 105 games. Sheesh.

    Combine proven veteran goodness, hometown grit, and a dash of cute (Willie and his Pony), and the M’s should go undefeated this season.

    Every respected baseball person knows that Cute>Talent everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

  123. Wilder83 on February 5th, 2008 6:31 pm

    The Mariners win 105 games? No way, I highly doubt they win 105 games in 2008.

    But, I can see 104 wins as a good possibility.

  124. Dan W on February 5th, 2008 6:31 pm

    Dave’s already said Bedard is 5 wins over replacement. He’s easily 7 over HoRam.

  125. J.L. White on February 5th, 2008 6:51 pm

    Jeez, another post by another group of pessimistic nerds. It’s obvious what’s going to happen this season: Willie Bloomquist will reveal himself to be Jesus Christ reborn (earning his new $33 million dollar salary), then damning every MLB player, manager and GM straight to hell. The M’s finish 162-0, and sweep the World Series over, oh, um, I don’t know, uh………Colorado.

    HALLELUJAH!!!

  126. Taylor H on February 5th, 2008 8:39 pm

    I have figured it out! The secret to USSM posting is… set your expecatations as low as possible so in the case of a fluke contention for the AL West this year, we can all say gosh, those Mariners shure did exceed our expectations of them. That way, everything about the M’s can be positive, cute, and full of veteran grit!

    That being said: Every aspect of our team is absolutely terrible!!!! We’re going to go 0-162 next year!!!! Willie Bloomquist for MVP!!!! We’re going to trade Felix and Ichiro!!!! Sign John McLaren to a ten-year deal!!!! Woo-hooo!!!!

  127. Taylor H on February 5th, 2008 8:41 pm

    Oh, and Bearman for GM!!!!

  128. JJT4444 on February 5th, 2008 8:42 pm

    I don’t want to speak for Dan W but I think he has a relevant point. If you are going to project the 2008 Mariners using the 2007 Mariners as a comparison, you can’t say that Bedard and Silva give you x number of wins over a hypothethical replacement player. The pitchers used by the 2007 Mariners were not replacement level. For example, if you look at the starts made by Weaver, Ramirez, Baek and Feierabend, they collectively made 68 starts, pitched 352.2 innings and gave up 264 earned runs (6.74 ERA). If you use Silva’s and Bedard’s 2007 numbers, they collectively pitched 384 innings and gave up 158 earned runs (3.70 ERA). I realize Silva and Bedard very likely won’t make 68 starts, but the point is that they likely give will you more innings than the 4 guys that the M’s ran out in the #4 and #5 slots last year and will probably give up at least 100 fewer earned runs (assuming Bedard doesn’t improve over last year, which I think he will – that may offset a decline by Silva). If 10 runs is equal to 1 win, that is at least a 10 win improvement over last year.

    It is fair to use Bedard’s wins over replacement when evaluating whether they are giving up too much in this trade, but not fair to use when trying to compare the 2008 M’s to the 2007 M’s. The 2007 M’s didn’t use replacement level pitchers in the 4 and 5 slots in their rotation.

    I’m also not certain why no one ever brings up the fact that the Angels also played above their expected pythagorean win total last year. The Angels were +91 runs last year, and the M’s were -19 (a 110 run difference). If you factor in the pitching upgrade that I discussed above, that makes up most, if not all, of the difference. Sure, you also have to factor in any upgrades made by the Angels and any other downgrades/upgrades for the rest of the M’s, but to say that the M’s have absolutely no chance next year with Bedard is not correct. We can argue whether the M’s 35-45% chance to win the division is worth giving up Jones ++, but I don’t think it is fair to dismiss totally the M’s chances with Bedard.

  129. Roger on February 5th, 2008 9:16 pm

    Weaver was 10-15, Ramirez was 8 – 7, Baek was 4 – 3, Feierabend was 1 – 6. That’s 23 – 31. So 54 games where they factored in the decision.

    Silva was 13 – 14, Bedard was 13 – 5. 26 – 21, 47 games. 30 – 24 in 54 games, extrapolating.

    That’s a seven game swing, not bad, but that ignores defense, declines, durability, team offense, parks, etc, and it’s not “at least ten games.” That seven game swing just about erases our pythag problem, eh, putting us right back where we are now assuming nothing else gets worse.

  130. Tuomas on February 5th, 2008 9:18 pm

    If I’m not mistaken, PECOTA puts Silva about where they’re putting Jeff Weaver. Giving him 30 starts isn’t going to give us the +30 runs you’re expecting.

  131. Taylor H on February 5th, 2008 9:29 pm

    129 – Actually, Weaver was 7-13. Washburn was 10-15.

  132. JJT4444 on February 5th, 2008 9:44 pm

    Roger,

    Using last year’s wins and losses to project this year’s wins and losses? Really?

    Tuomas, you may be correct about PECOTA’s projection, but if PECOTA is saying that 2008 Silva will be roughly equal to 2007 Weaver, I am not buying it. Even Silva’s bad outlier season (2006) wasn’t as bad as Weaver was in 2007.

  133. wlad on February 5th, 2008 11:41 pm

    well written

  134. joser on February 6th, 2008 11:27 am

    Pitching, as regular readers here know, is heavily affected by defense — which is why projecting wins this year based on win numbers from a previous season in front of a completely different team is silly. Defense wasn’t much of an issue when Weaver was giving up moon shots but it is going to be a factor in ’08 (particularly for Silva). Wilkerson isn’t what you’d call a major improvement over Guillen. Raul, even if he’s not hurt so he can produce at the plate more like the second half of ’07 than the first, is like the ’07 Raul defensively except one year older. Betancourt may have remembered how to throw to first again, or maybe not. Sexson still has the size and agility of a sequoia.

    And then there’s offense. Baseball musings has been running projected lineups through their lineup analysis tool and offering high, “given,” and “low” guesses for runs per game:

    Team….’.07……best….given…worst
    OAK….4.57…..5.32…..5.14…..5.04
    TEX…..5.04…..5.35…..5.28…..5.15
    LAA…..5.07…..5.30…..5.20…..4.99
    SEA…..4.90……4.91…..4.87…..4.67
    (I’m sure that formatted ugly, sorry)

    I think it’s overestimating Oakland (overrating Jack Cust, among other things) but perhaps not — given how low expectations have been set for that team, they have potential for surprise. In any case, note that the best estimate for the M’s is lower than the worst estimate for every other team in the division. Regardless of how the other teams might do, the estimate for the M’s seems pretty reasonable unless somebody can come up with a credible basis for believing the ’08 team is going to have significantly more offense than the ’07 team (fewer ABs by Bloomquist, perhaps?)

  135. firemane on February 8th, 2008 1:08 pm

    joser (134),

    First thing I noticed about that projection is that is projects a career worst season for Ichiro. The .367/.420 numbers are 22 and 17 points under his career averages. In 7 seasons, he’s been under each of those numbers exactly once.

    The second item is the projection for Adam Jones to post a .326/.412 split (.738 OPS). Of course, this was done prior to the Bedard trade – and also, prior to the Wilkerson acquisition. Wilkerson’s career line is: .354/.451. Of course, many think Wilky is useless, primarily because his average has been dreadful in Texas.

    But, with the exception of his injury impacted 2006 season, he has still been over 100 OPS+. In part-time duty, (and I think in his case, playing part time is part of what has been suppressing his numbers), he managed a 104 OPS+ in 2007.

    A 104 OPS+ in Seattle is about .760 – 22 points over the Adam Jones projection.

    Of course, the Ms averaged 4.90 in 2007. Projecting them to repeat that actually seems about right to me.

    But, park adjustments can skew things a bit. A suspect few people realize that Seattle posted a 104 team OPS+ in 2007, (scoring 4.90 per game), while Anaheim posted a 100 team OPS+ while scoring 5.07. How many teams scored more runs per game ON THE ROAD than Seattle in 2007? Two: Yankees and the Tigers.

    Looking at raw run totals for offenses is dangerous math when you’re dealing with a team that has a MAJOR park effect skewing those numbers.

    The Angels probably will score more than Seattle. But, unlike 2007, Seattle has a good shot at allowing the fewest runs of any team in the West. Enough to overtake LA? A much harder call. But at the moment, I’d give the Ms a minor nod in run prevention for 2008 – and Anaheim a minor nod for run creation.

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