2008 PECOTA cards are out for hitters

DMZ · February 22, 2008 at 6:36 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Check ‘em out if you’re a subscriber.

Selections:
If you’d like to feel happy about the M’s future.
If you’re feeling too happy and want a downer. Or this.

If you see anything else interesting, hey, drop a comment. That’s what they’re for.

Comments

16 Responses to “2008 PECOTA cards are out for hitters”

  1. lailaihei on February 22nd, 2008 8:23 pm

    I’m close to getting a subscription even though I’m a poor college kid. I procured the PECOTA projections and have spent hours mulling over them…
    On one hand it would be really entertaining and definitely worth the money. On the other hand I’d spend way too much time and my grades would suffer…

    Looks like I’m getting a subscription.

  2. joser on February 22nd, 2008 8:24 pm

    That picture of Clement is… disturbing.

  3. Mike G. on February 22nd, 2008 9:40 pm

    Jones garnering MVP votes from 2011 and beyond will be quite depressing.

    Also further evidence why Clement needs to stay down and work on being a Major League catcher. 800+ OPS from a catcher, Yay! 800 OPS from a 1B/DH, meh.

    Even more depressing we won’t get that production from our 1B or our DH… possibly even if you combined them. October here we come?

  4. Grizz on February 22nd, 2008 10:17 pm

    I like the number two comps for each:

    Clement: Todd Helton
    A. Jones: Chet Lemon (I think Dave called this)
    Vidro: David Segui

  5. HamNasty on February 23rd, 2008 3:16 am

    Just glad I found out I am going to Spring Training. I can tell PECOTA where to shove it after 2-3 games of spring training game analysis! Obviously my small sample size guesses will be much better then years of statistical reasoning. Go Wilkerson, replace my love for Guillen!

  6. gwangung on February 23rd, 2008 11:08 am

    The first link should have been supplemented with the WFB pony pic….

  7. Mat on February 23rd, 2008 5:30 pm

    This doesn’t make sense to me:

    .266 EQA, 506 PA, 9.8 VORP — Jose Vidro, DH
    .271 EQA, 579 PA, 14.7 VORP — Ichiro, CF

    Last year AL DH’s hit .268/.355/.447 (AL RF hit .288/.359/.465) and AL CF’s hit .272/.340/.414 so I’m not buying that the difference in replacement levels is as small as the VORP totals on the PECOTA cards would seem to imply.

  8. terry on February 23rd, 2008 6:16 pm

    I’m just amazed that a guy with those projected numbers as a DH in 2008 would also be projected to be in baseball in 2012…….

  9. JMB on February 23rd, 2008 7:37 pm

    Clement comment: “He`ll have to work hard to reclaim the mantle of top Mariners prospect from Adam Jones.”

    Uh, I guess he didn’t have to work THAT hard.

  10. James T on February 23rd, 2008 8:11 pm

    They’ve got a few problems with the lists of comparables. I think there were typos listing the wrong years among just about every player’s comps. For instance, for Ichiro Suzuki, the comps (never very good approximations for him, anyway) included Matty Alou . . in 1979 (5 years after he retired) and Dom DiMaggio in . . . 1969, 16 years after he retired! Mayb PECOTA has good reason to expect Ichiro to retire retroactively and become a very successful businessman and grandfather in 2008 but I’m not seeing it.

  11. Mat on February 23rd, 2008 8:29 pm

    The problem with the dates in the list of comparables is a known issue.

  12. vj on February 24th, 2008 8:44 am

    They predict quite a decline for Johjima. I wonder why.

  13. JMB on February 24th, 2008 9:32 am

    Catcher on the wrong side of 30, quite a workload the past two years. Though that drop in power is pretty severe.

  14. philosofool on February 24th, 2008 12:42 pm

    Vidro: Break: 1%, Improve 24%, Collapse 38%. Uhg.

  15. Evan on February 25th, 2008 10:10 am

    Catcher on the wrong side of 30, quite a workload the past two years. Though that drop in power is pretty severe.

    PECOTA seems to equate walk rates with future power, and Johjima’s walk rate is incredibly low (7th lowest in the AL in 2007, min 400 PA).

  16. philosofool on February 25th, 2008 1:21 pm

    Pitcher cards are out now too.

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