A.L. West Roundtable

Dave · March 4, 2008 at 8:48 am · Filed Under Mariners 

I participated in a roundtable about the A.L. West in 2008 with Patrick Sullivan, Rich Lederer, and Sean Smith. It has been posted over at The Baseball Analysts website. Much to my chagrin, people quote ERA a bunch when talking about pitcher abilities, but beyond that, there’s some interesting stuff in there, even if I don’t agree with all of it.

Comments

35 Responses to “A.L. West Roundtable”

  1. Sports on a Schtick on March 4th, 2008 9:04 am

    Watching this team hit, there are times when I wonder if the Mariners purchased this offense at Costco.

    Yea right, I wish. It’s like the M’s bid against themselves on eBay and then paid through the roof on shipping and insurance.

  2. Dave on March 4th, 2008 9:08 am

    The offense is actually fairly cost effective. Johjima is pretty significantly underpaid, and obviously Betancourt and Lopez are working for peanuts. Beltre and Ichiro are getting fair market contracts, and if the team put Ibanez at DH, he’d be fairly compensated for his production as well. Wilkerson’s just a role player being paid like one. The only two guys whose price doesn’t match their performance on the position player side of the ledger are Sexson and Vidro, who are a total waste of $20 million.

    But the pitching is really where this team is throwing money away.

  3. Sports on a Schtick on March 4th, 2008 9:11 am

    True, but I’d still give Seattle negative feedback.

  4. argh on March 4th, 2008 9:13 am

    Intimidated? Not unless you’re worried they’re going to steal the remote from you to watch Matlock or take your spot at the early bird table at the cafeteria.

    [snort]

  5. Matthew Carruth on March 4th, 2008 9:41 am

    Yeah, I’m disagreeing with the Angel-love.

  6. Evan on March 4th, 2008 9:56 am

    You made me want to see Texas win the division, just to show how wrong those guys were to be so sure of themselves.

  7. Grizz on March 4th, 2008 10:12 am

    Yeah, I’m disagreeing with the Angel-love.

    But Torii Hunter is going to win MVP! Brandon Wood is going to win Rookie of the Year! Jared Weaver has almost the same career ERA+ as Johan Santana!

  8. BaltimoreDave on March 4th, 2008 11:06 am

    I guess it’s easier when there’s only 4 teams, but I find it interesting you’re predicting just a 9-win gap from the division winner to the cellar-dweller.

  9. ConorGlassey on March 4th, 2008 11:12 am

    Good stuff, Dave. Just curious…what’s the format for these? E-mail? Phone?

  10. baseballismylyf4 on March 4th, 2008 11:46 am

    I’d love to know how you got the “slider in the left handed batters box strikes out Johjima” conclusion when he only struck out 41 times in 2007. I think it’s fair to assume that you saw this happen twice in one game, and made it a habit of his.

  11. bakomariner on March 4th, 2008 12:39 pm

    I live in Bakersfield, CA, and although the population is mainly Dogders fans, the ones that are Angels fans are ridiculously over-confident…they think the Angels will winn 100 games, Hunter is their “savior,” VLAD is GOD, etc., etc.

    It’s terrible…

    It would be nice it they were more realistic about their team like Dave was in his analysis of the Ms and of the Ms’ front office in the interview.

  12. gwangung on March 4th, 2008 12:44 pm

    I live in Bakersfield, CA, and although the population is mainly Dogders fans, the ones that are Angels fans are ridiculously over-confident…they think the Angels will winn 100 games, Hunter is their “savior,” VLAD is GOD, etc., etc.

    I’m not sure they’re wrong on Vlad….(though I do wonder who they consider the Holy Ghost….)

  13. Evan on March 4th, 2008 12:59 pm

    (though I do wonder who they consider the Holy Ghost….)

    Vlad’s back.

  14. TheEmrys on March 4th, 2008 1:12 pm

    Vlad isn’t GOD…. but he is A god.

  15. hub on March 4th, 2008 1:20 pm

    Vlad isn’t GOD…. but he is A god.

    But is he A rod?

  16. argh on March 4th, 2008 1:28 pm

    Every time I’ve seen Vlad come to the plate against Mariner pitching in the last couple of years the phrase ‘Prince of Darkness’ is what comes to me.

  17. nadingo on March 4th, 2008 1:30 pm

    But the pitching is really where this team is throwing money away.

    I know you’ve covered this ad nauseam, but huh?

    Even if you assume (which I don’t) that Washburn + Batista + Silva are as worthless as Sexson and Vidro, that’s still just a “total waste” of about $30 million. When you factor in the fact that the Bullpen mostly costs peanuts, Bedard is a big value, and Felix is a huge value, then I don’t see how the pitching side is that much more wasteful than the hitting side.

    Or were you talking more about 2-3 years from now?

  18. DMZ on March 4th, 2008 1:37 pm

    I’d love to know how you got the “slider in the left handed batters box strikes out Johjima” conclusion when he only struck out 41 times in 2007.

    He didn’t say “strikes out” — he said gets themselves out. Betancourt doesn’t K a lot either.

    Dave’s comment was in the similarity of approaches between those four, that they’re all guys who put the ball in play and aren’t particularly selective about what they go after.

    I think it’s fair to assume that you saw this happen twice in one game, and made it a habit of his.

    Given that that’s not what Dave wrote, and it’s certainly not what he meant, I don’t think that’s fair at all.

    It’d certainly be fair to assume that you didn’t read the article very closely before deciding to hash on him for your misreading.

  19. bakomariner on March 4th, 2008 1:38 pm

    17- Giving Silva 44 million, when Baek, or our abundance of AAAA arms will give similar results for practically nothing, is like throwing money away…

  20. Evan on March 4th, 2008 2:09 pm

    But is he A rod?

    Is A rod A tool?

  21. galaxieboi on March 4th, 2008 2:14 pm

    Is A rod A tool?

    Excellent shot, YES!!

  22. _David_ on March 4th, 2008 2:18 pm

    Even with their defense, the A’s posted a 98 OPS+ and their pitching has since thinned. Anyone know what kind of defense Buck delivers? BTW, when are Dave’s KJR gigs again?

  23. jlc on March 4th, 2008 2:26 pm

    OK, who sent them?

    From Baker’s blog:

    “OK, that was super strange. Ibanez and Balentien were lying on the grass in the outfield and it delayed the start of the inning. I guess there were bees out there. They were down for a minute or so and then got up, and play resumed. I’ll have to check that one out.”

  24. bakomariner on March 4th, 2008 2:30 pm

    23- That’s rad…too bad they didn’t go after Vidro and Cairo…

  25. Steve T on March 4th, 2008 2:31 pm

    Uh oh. Bees. We are all suspects.

    My prediction is more pessimistic than most:

    Angels 88-74
    A’s 83-79
    Rangers 83-79
    Seattle 78-84

    Due to the extremely dense concentration of horribleness in the past offseason, I’m not entirely sure I’m rooting for them to win. I know I’m rooting for Adam Jones to hit 120 HR….

  26. jlc on March 4th, 2008 2:32 pm

    Baker’s on vacation and I don’t know if the guy subbing reads USSM. He may not have known the hilarity of it.

  27. DMZ on March 4th, 2008 2:33 pm

    I’d delete that for being OT except it’s freaking hilarious.

  28. Typical Idiot Fan on March 4th, 2008 2:43 pm

    Wow Dave, I can’t believe you’re willing to debate with someone who believes in results based analysis.

  29. bubblegumcrisis on March 4th, 2008 3:01 pm

    25, I assume you are counting on Bedard and/or Felix going down for a length of time and the A’s and Rangers playing way above their heads?

  30. Tek Jansen on March 4th, 2008 3:06 pm

    #19 — I don’t think that Baek and other assorted arms could reproduce something similar to Silva’s results, but, yes, he is overpaid, along with Wash.

  31. msb on March 4th, 2008 3:15 pm

    I’m waiting for the day the pony gallops across the outfield.

  32. JMHawkins on March 4th, 2008 4:53 pm

    I don’t think that Baek and other assorted arms could reproduce something similar to Silva’s results, but, yes, he is overpaid, along with Wash.

    Actually, I’ll maintain that Baek last year was, for as long as he was healthy, better than Washburn and Batista (in other words, our second best starter). Silva is better than Baek (I’ll venture he’s maybe +0.75 wins better), but Baek is as good as, or better, than Washburn and Batista (a half win better than Washburn, and a, pardon the expression, wash with Batista – though Baek hasn’t demonstrated the durability of either, which is worth something).

    live in Bakersfield, CA, and although the population is mainly Dogders fans, the ones that are Angels fans are ridiculously over-confident…they think the Angels will winn 100 games, Hunter is their “savior,”

    Yeah, what was the “Hunter could be the MVP” foofaroo all about? I mean, he could be, but if someone asked me for the short list of likely MVP candidates, his name would not spring to mind. Of course, if he hits 30 points higher than his lifetime average, hits 20% more HRs than his career average (and more than he has hit in any season except 1), continues to play exceptional defense on the wrong side of 30, and is lucky enough to have lots of those Ribeye steaks…

    Seems like Rich Lederer was projecting Hunter’s MVP chances about the same way the M’s front office evaluates free agents. Well, optimism can be charming.

    Just not in Angels fans.

  33. Taylor H on March 4th, 2008 7:42 pm

    I’m waiting for the day the pony gallops across the outfield.

    Perhaps the Mariners management will give some ponies million dollar contracts and have them play left field!

  34. Taylor H on March 4th, 2008 7:43 pm

    Oops. Delete that last post. I meant:

    I’m waiting for the day the pony gallops across the outfield.

    Perhaps the Mariners management will give some ponies million dollar contracts and have them play left field!

  35. galaxieboi on March 4th, 2008 8:58 pm

    Nice work, Dave. Was it a little frustrating?

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