Community Projections: Erik Bedard
The results are in, and now that we’ve collected the data, we’re going to begin publishing the results of the 2008 USSM/LL Community Projections. You all had your chance to be the prognosticator, and now we’re aggregating the results into a blog reader consensus. In order to get through all the reviews more quickly, I’m going to handle the pitchers here and Jeff’s going to do the hitters over at Lookout Landing.
The first pitcher we’re going to review is the shiny expensive new guy from the great white north; Erik Bedard. It’s no secret that the majority of us weren’t particularly thrilled about his acquisition, thanks to the high cost of giving up Adam Jones, but we’ve made it no secret that we’re happy that Bedard is a Mariner. I’ve called him one of the five best pitchers in the American League, and even that may be an understatement of his abilities. Especially if the readers are to be trusted. Here are the results of the Bedard projection.
Average of 74 entries: 197 IP, 174 H, 29 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 59 BB, 210 K, 6 HBP, 47% GB%, 3.17 FIP
Optimsitic Entry (wcf51): 211 IP, 161 H, 17 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 41 BB, 233 K, 9 HBP, 62% GB%, 2.38 FIP
Pessimistic Entry (panev): 208 IP, 167 H, 25 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 30 BB, 115 K, 8 HBP, 54% GB%, 4.02 FIP
Dave’s Entry: 190 IP, 197 H, 34 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 44 BB, 184 K, 4 HBP, 48% GB%, 3.25 FIP
Jeff’s Entry: 188 IP, 171 H, 27 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 59 BB, 196 K, 6 HBP, 47% GB%, 3.40 FIP
Really, this is a pretty remarkable group of projections. You guys couldn’t love Erik Bedard any more if he was carrying your baby. The absolute worst projection in there has him pitching at the level of 2007 Fausto Carmona or Justin Verlander. The reigning pessimist in the crowd thinks he’s going to set a career high in innings pitched and be one of the 10-15 best pitchers in the league. And that guy’s out on an island of negativity!
More than 1/3 of the projections (26 of the 74) had Bedard posting a FIP of below 3.00. The list of pitchers who have posted a FIP below 3.00 in the American League in the last four years reads like this: 2005 Johan Santana. That’s it – it’s happened once in the last four years, but 26 of you think Bedard’s going to pitch at that level. Nine of you think he’s going to be even better than Santana was that year. That’s nearly as many as people that projected he’d post a FIP worse than 3.50 (11 did that, by the way). A 3.50 FIP would still have ranked fourth in the American League last year (3rd if you don’t include 2007 Bedard, since he can’t finish behind himself).
The people who are optimistic about Bedard think he’s going to have a hall of fame season and stay healthy. The people who are pessimistic about Bedard think he’s going to have an all-star season and stay healthy. And absolutely no one thinks he’s going to get hurt and miss more than a few starts.
You might all hate the trade, but good gravy, you guys love the guy we got back. The next time anyone decides that readers of this blog revel in negativity, I’m just going to point them to this projection. Negativity isn’t even in the zip code. This is an all out Erik Bedard love fest. If he’s as good as you guys think he will be, he’ll be on the very short list of Cy Young contenders at years end.