Community Projection: Carlos Silva

Dave · March 28, 2008 at 11:02 am · Filed Under Mariners 

The second new starting pitcher we’re asking you to project – what do you guys think of our new $48 million dollar acquisition?

Average Projection: 193 IP, 221 H, 39 2B, 5 3B, 24 HR, 38 BB, 86 K, 5 HBP, 49% GB, 4.60 FIP
Optimist (wcf51): 219 IP, 208 H, 34 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 46 BB, 127 K, 4 HBP, 64% GB, 3.67 FIP
Pessimist (librocrat): 184 IP, 233 H, 39 2B, 3 3B, 39 HR, 47 BB, 72 K, 1 HBP, 45% GB, 5.95 FIP
Dave’s Projection: 186 IP, 212 H, 42 2B, 3 3B, 27 HR, 36 BB, 79 K, 3 HBP, 44% GB, 4.87 FIP
Jeff’s Projection: 185 IP, 196 H, 43 2B, 3 3B, 27 HR, 34 BB, 87 K, 5 HBP, 47% GB, 4.79 FIP

Of the 55 projections, pretty much everyone sees the same thing – he stays healthy, he gives up a ton of hits, he doesn’t walk or strike anyone out, and contributes like a #5 starter. Essentially, this projection makes him Paul Byrd with a few more groundballs, which isn’t quite what the M’s think they’re getting. A couple of you apparently think his splitter is going to make him quite good (wcf, I’ll buy you dinner if he gets anywhere near both that GB% and K%), a couple of you think he’s going to be one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and and everyone else agrees that he’s just going to be a mediocre back-end starter.

Sounds about right – there’s no doubt the M’s wildly overpaid for Silva, but a 4.60 FIP isn’t awful. He has his uses – those uses just aren’t worth $12 million a year.


37 Responses to “Community Projection: Carlos Silva”

  1. Mo Vaughn Is My Hero on March 28th, 2008 11:05 am

    I’m scared for the Washburn projection.

  2. Librocrat on March 28th, 2008 11:14 am

    Wow. I’m pessimistic. I realize the IP is a little high for someone with that awful an FIP, but I really can’t see him being pulled for being terrible. ~170 would have probably been a better estimate, but oh well.

  3. SequimRealEstate on March 28th, 2008 11:19 am

    Mo Vaughn, You should be scared, very scared.

  4. Jeff Nye on March 28th, 2008 11:29 am

    Honestly, I’ve reached the point where I expect the Mariners to overpay for talent.

    So, that being said, they at least got a marginally useful pitcher for their $12 million a year.

  5. Mere Tantalisers on March 28th, 2008 11:34 am

    Paul Byrd was one out short of a no-no last year.

  6. cwel87 on March 28th, 2008 11:42 am

    39 HR from a sinkerball pitcher? In Safeco? Woah.

  7. Evan on March 28th, 2008 11:48 am

    Sinkers that don’t sink are meatballs.

  8. coasty141 on March 28th, 2008 12:09 pm

    So Silva is pretty much Washburn only with a few more groundballs. Yeah I’d pay 12 million a year for that.

  9. coasty141 on March 28th, 2008 12:21 pm

    The community projection for Silva is just about spot on with his career numbers. 4.61 FIP and 48.7 GB%.

    It looks like as a whole we know what we are getting into when Silva takes the hill. Here is to hoping the opposition hits the ball to our defenders.

  10. Matthew Carruth on March 28th, 2008 12:25 pm

    FWIW, a 4.60 FIP would rank as 28th among qualified AL SP in 2007. (Miguel Batista was 28th with a 4.61 FIP last year).

  11. Matthew Carruth on March 28th, 2008 12:28 pm

    though it’s worth pointing out that there were only 37 qualified SP in the AL last year.

    But still, a 4.60 FIP (which I disagree with; I think 2006 is weighing too much in people’s minds), doesn’t scream #5 SP to me.

  12. coasty141 on March 28th, 2008 12:31 pm

    What is your prediction for 2008 Matthew?

  13. coasty141 on March 28th, 2008 12:32 pm

    And what in your opinion led to the 5.81 FIP in 2006?

  14. msb on March 28th, 2008 12:40 pm

    Paul Byrd was one out short of a no-no last year.

    ahhh, ya know it was snow-aided 🙂

  15. Dayve on March 28th, 2008 1:22 pm

    Why are you so preoccupied by money? It doesn’t seem to matter to the team what they pay to their players, so why does it matter to USSM?

  16. smb on March 28th, 2008 1:23 pm

    And Sexson-aided…faced him twice, K’d him once.

  17. Librocrat on March 28th, 2008 1:33 pm

    15 – Not mattering to the team doesn’t make it not stupid.

  18. Steve T on March 28th, 2008 1:37 pm

    Because it DOES matter, Dayve. The team doesn’t have unlimited resources. And when they pay $12 mil for mediocre talent that’s $12 mil that’s not available to pay someone really good when they come available. Even the Yankees know how this works. The M’s have more money locked up in unproductive players than anyone, which means they have no shot at the players who count. Those players may not be available today but when they appear it’s the teams that have spent intelligently that get them, and then those teams have their money locked up in PRODUCTIVE players. Whoo!

    Think about it. If you’re paying $10,000 a month for milk, where’s your rent going to come from?

  19. Jeff Nye on March 28th, 2008 1:37 pm

    I think we might have to institute a new comment deletion tag:

    [Groundhog Day]

    Seriously, we’ve beaten the “why do you care if the Mariners pay Willie Bloomquist 50 million a year?” question to death enough.

  20. IdahoInvader on March 28th, 2008 1:40 pm

    I think the fact we’re choosing to pay Bonds $0 is just as bad for this year

  21. smb on March 28th, 2008 1:58 pm


    The taxpayers can foot the rent. If $10,000 a month is what it costs to bring some gritty veteranness to your fridge, then that’s the price of 2%. And if said veteran milk proves ineffective as 2%, then you exercise patience and hopefully recoup the investment with some specialty $10,000 sour cream. It’s really a can’t-miss strategy, don’t you see.

  22. Librocrat on March 28th, 2008 2:10 pm

    Also, I noticed no one thinks he’s going to be an “inning’s eater” as advertised.

  23. Tuomas on March 28th, 2008 2:22 pm


    If only Richie Sexon could be fermented, decanted and sold…

  24. Tuomas on March 28th, 2008 2:23 pm

    RE 23: I prefer to pretend that there’s an alternate version who isn’t old and overpaid.

  25. Gomez on March 28th, 2008 2:46 pm

    11. Yeah, makes sense. Team usually yank low-end starters who do poorly… so to be in that ranking list at all shows you were able to at least hold your own over much of a full season.

  26. Dayve on March 28th, 2008 3:25 pm


    I agree for the most part, but when has this team ever said out right that it doesn’t have the money for a particular free agent? I think they are piss poor negotiators and, as it is well established here, not adept at evaluating talent and team needs. They don’t know who to offer the money to and when so they often make mistakes, like Silva. Like Washburn. Like Sexson. Like Vidro. Etc. When the time comes that they need a new player, like a first baseman in 2009, they’ll go out and spend a lot of money on someone like Tony Clark. If they spent less for Silva, it wouldn’t have made a difference anyway. He’d still be taking up a spot, still be blocking a better player–a player they have the money to get, but not the sense.

  27. terry on March 28th, 2008 3:38 pm

    A FIP of 4.60 would only be a tick above a league average AL starter in ’07 (FIP=4.42).

  28. cwel87 on March 28th, 2008 3:47 pm

    On the upside of money, I believe this year’s crop of free agents won’t be awful, and we have somewhere around $26M coming off the books.

    That’d be nice. To, you know, sign productively. Boy, I sure do love pipe dreams.

  29. Gomez on March 28th, 2008 4:21 pm

    23. That’s a neat idea. You could call it Swung On And Mist.

  30. lokiforever on March 28th, 2008 6:03 pm

    nice, Gomez.

  31. JerBear on March 28th, 2008 6:49 pm

    You could call it Swung On And Mist.

    🙂 Well played.

  32. JMHawkins on March 28th, 2008 7:41 pm

    The real question for me…

    Go Lopez!!!! Hay Home Runs, even Spring Training ones.

    … okay, sorry, back to what I was saying.

    The real question for me is how Silva compares to Baek. I think if Baek was in the rotation for a full year, he’d be within 1 Win of Silva. For a $11.5 M difference in salary, well, ugh.

    Plus, we lose Baek if they can’t find room for him. On the pregame show, Mac was hinting at breaking camp with 11 pitchers, which would make it pretty much impossible for

    … wait, Adriaaaaaan!!!! Hay Home Runs. Even Spring Training ones….

    Okay, sorry, where was I? If they go with 11 pitchers, then it’s JJ and Dickey on either end of the bullpen, with room for two RHPs and two LHPs, so I don’t see Baek in the picture. Sad. He’s a useful guy.

  33. msb on March 28th, 2008 7:45 pm

    wasn’t there an earlier discussion about Morse, baserunning blunders, and small sample sizes? would just getting picked off third make that sample-size bigger?

  34. msb on March 28th, 2008 7:51 pm

    He has his uses – those uses just aren’t worth $12 million a year.

    would the fact that Silva is the size of a Mack truck give him any more value? you know, for sitting on a batter who has charged the mound? or if they need a piano moved?

  35. John D. on March 28th, 2008 8:14 pm

    Re: # 5 –
    Paul Byrd was one out short of a no-no last year.

    Was he going to take that thing?
    (The hitters couldn’t even see the ball.)

  36. terry on March 28th, 2008 9:37 pm

    Murton can’t hit Putz….the Ms don’t really need a guy like that.

  37. klosetfann on March 28th, 2008 9:38 pm


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