Future Forty 2.5
Okay, so, the Future Forty update is going to go here shortly, once I can figure out how to upload the file in the new WordPress. But, I wanted to be able to publish this post so that you guys could start getting your questions in the comment boxes, and I’ll get to them in a little bit.
So, with the minor league seasons kicking off last night, I’ve updated the Future Forty and once again changed the format around a little bit. It still looks like the last version with players being grouped by projected roles rather than being ranked numerically, but I’ve made a few changes that I think are for the better.
1. Gone are the 1-10 rankings for risk/reward. Honestly, I wasn’t really using the bottom half of that scale anyway, as everyone on the list was basically somewhere between a 5 and a 10 in almost every scenario. So, since I was using a 5 point scale, I simply reduced it to 1-5 to allow the numbers to represent something – in this case, projected wins above replacement for a player in his prime. So, instead of Jeff Clement now being a “7 rewardâ€, which has some nebulous definition, he’s now a “3 win reward†player, which tells you that I think he’ll approximately a +3 win player if he fulfills his potential.
The present column displays what I believe the player’s win value would be if they played in the majors in 2008, relative to replacement level. This should help give an idea of who is capable of contributing to the major league club in some form. The risk ratings are also now scaled 1 to 5, but still represent relative risk for each prospect. A risk factor of 5 is significantly less likely to live up to his projection than a risk factor of 1.
2. I’ve created a new group called “International Prospects – Guys Who Signed for $ And I Know Nothing Else Aboutâ€. Every summer, the M’s spend millions of dollars on teenagers from other countries, and the club’s best prospects often come out of that group a year or two later. I’ve never felt comfortable talking about these guys, simply because I don’t know anything more about them than you do, but it’s also always felt weird to omit them while including replacement level guys like Cesar Jimenez. So, I just gave them their own category, giving you names to follow as potential prospects to watch, without trying to offer any insight on their abilities without the necessary information.
3. And finally, I’ve tossed everyone (except Brandon Morrow, who I’m making an exception for) off the list that has more than one full season in the major leagues. Yes, Felix is still part of our future, but you don’t learn anything from seeing him at the top of this list, and he just takes up a spot that could go to someone you may not know about. Guys like Lowe, Rowland-Smith, and O’Flaherty will stay on for 2008, but they won’t be back next year.
And now, for the player comments.
With Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio now in Baltimore, the pitching side of the system is really, really weak. Juan Ramirez and Phillipe Aumont are both high ceiling, high velocity right handers, but both begin 2008 in Wisconsin and are at least 2-3 years from Seattle, and probably 3-4 years before they’re helping this team win anything. After those two, though, it’s a cornucopia of guys who might be a #5 starter if everything breaks right. The team is stocked up on lefties who throw 86-90 and don’t have a true outpitch, but when those guys are your best hope for arms from the farm in the next two years, it’s not a good thing.
On the other hand, though, the team has a pretty good stock of position players. Everyone knows about Clement, Balentien, and Triunfel, but there’s a crop of pretty interesting guys behind then as well. From Gregory Halman (personal favorite, Alfonso Soriano clone) to Michael Saunders (others like him more than I do, but he’s got some skills) and Danny Carroll, there’s some real outfield depth in the organization, which could come in handy in the next year or two. The infield doesn’t have quite as much talent after Triunfel, but there are a few guys who could turn into useful parts, and with Tui, Chen, and Mangini at the upper levels, it might not take more than a year or two to see some returns from that group.
Overall, the farm system is in decent shape, but certainly took a hit from the Bedard trade. If the international guys (DeJesus and Noriega especially) pan out, that will give the team even more depth in future position players, though the team probably won’t be able to get much pitching help from the minors for several years.
Cool – looking forward to the list. So now that we have traded 3 of our top pitching prospects how would you access the organization overall in terms of pitchers? Do we have enough guys coming through to fill the hole or is this now a problem area?
Cool…
So what have you heard about Mike Saunders? Seems like he’s a guy who should be moving up the list this year.
Also, has your thinking on Yung-Chi Chen changed at all? Hearing anything about his defense?
Finally, what’s your opinion of the M’s minor league pitching instructors? Brad Holman always garnered a lot of praise at San Antonio; are there instructors in the minors that are doing great work in teaching pitchers a new pitch, or changing their game plans, etc.?
Any chance Felix has a little brother just tearing up some Venezuelan little league? I would love to see some more talent coming out of our Latin/South America camps. I keep hearing it is a great source of talent but besides Felix,Lopez who have we gotten? I am not sure exactly how the Yuni situation worked since he fled to Mexico and how the M’s heard about him exactly.
I guess the question is, are the Mariners doing a good job beating out teams for talent in their camps down south?
Okay, it doesn’t look like I’m going to be able to get the FF file uploaded in the near future, so I’ll tackle a few questions before I disappear for a bit.
So now that we have traded 3 of our top pitching prospects how would you access the organization overall in terms of pitchers?
The pitching is very weak. Ramirez and Aumont are good arms, but there’s almost nothing after them that projects to be much besides a role player, and they’re both 3+ years from the majors.
So what have you heard about Mike Saunders? Seems like he’s a guy who should be moving up the list this year.
Also, has your thinking on Yung-Chi Chen changed at all? Hearing anything about his defense?
A lot of people like Saunders quite a bit, seeing him as a guy with a solid all-around game. To me, he still looks way too much like Shin-Soo Choo for my liking, and I’m not sure his gap power is going to produce enough offense to play in a corner or that he has the defense for center. But he’s young and has time to develop, so he’s worth watching.
Chen looks like a classic utility player to me. Decent bat, not enough of a glove to play regularly at second given his current skills, but could learn to handle all the IF positions and be a decent reserve infielder.
Finally, what’s your opinion of the M’s minor league pitching instructors? Brad Holman always garnered a lot of praise at San Antonio; are there instructors in the minors that are doing great work in teaching pitchers a new pitch, or changing their game plans, etc.?
The organization doesn’t do a great job of getting a consistent message all the way down from the top to the bottom, so some instructors are teaching things that are being corrected later. It’s a problem, and has been for a few years. Overall, I don’t think the M’s do enough to maximize the effectiveness of their talents through coaching.
I would love to see some more talent coming out of our Latin/South America camps. I keep hearing it is a great source of talent but besides Felix,Lopez who have we gotten?
I take it you haven’t followed the farm system too closely? The best prospect in the organization, Carlos Triunfel, is a Latin American signing. So is Juan Ramirez, one of the team’s two good pitching prospects. They spent a ton of money this summer on Jharmidy DeJesus, Gabriel Noriega, and Efrain Nunez, and they’ve consistently beaten other teams in emerging areas to land guys like Gregory Halman, Wladimir Balentien, and Alex Liddi. The team does very well in signing international free agents – it’s the absolute last thing you should be complaining about.
Thanks for the always informative Future Forty post! Dave, what do you think the upside of Alex Liddi is?
Thanks Dave, I just did a quick transaction search of Baseball Ref since 2001 and I got that perception since they don’t list M’s amateur free agents that haven’t cracked the majors yet. Good to know we are maximizing that resource, I know they tap the Australia/Asia markets well.
Any chance Tui ends up moving off 3B?
I’ve been trying to read more about how the Ms and other baseball organizations operate from top to bottom. It seems that this statement could be applied to many teams, but I am nowhere near versed enough to make a judgement call about how prevalent this issue is.
So my question is: Is this a critique in comparison to other organizations in MLB, others in the AL West? Or is it more an “I believe we could be doing a better job of presenting a unified approach to young pitchers” statement without comparing to other teams?
Add to that list of Latin American players Asdrubal Cabrera; it’s not his fault he’s in the majors helping the Indians rather than the Mariners.
Dave,
Does Gregory Halman have the athletic ability to stick in CF? Do you really see him with 290/330/530 potential?
This will likely be clear when the file is visible, but is the reward how you see the M’s using the player in his prime or how you would (specific instance: Morrow as reliever vs starter)?
What’s become of that South African kid, Anthony Phillips? Any expectation that we’ll see him at Everett at some point this summer?
Also: it seems to me a bit unfortunate, if typical, that the Mariners managed to draft 3rd and 5th in 2005 and 2006, and only landed players with 3-win rewards. Given the talent selected around Clement in 2005, in particular (Upton, Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulowitzki, to say nothing of big-time prospects like Maybin, Bruce, McCutchen and Rasmus), is it reasonable to call that selection, without insult to Clement’s real value, a major disappointment?
Also also: Any good range of comps for Alex Liddi? That guy’s pretty easy to root for, and without meaning any comparison of skills, he sure looks, physically, a lot like a young Alex Rodriguez.
Nolan Gallagher – now that Mickolio’s gone, it looks like it would be up to him to produce the all-Montana battery with Rob Johnson. I can’t find Gallagher on any of the rosters, though. Is he injured? Being held back to start pitching later in the year?
I really like the new rating system.
A couple of questions:
Can you expound on the 5 risk rating for Morrow? How much is due to risks common to pitchers with his skillset and how much due to the way he is being handled in the system?
You have Feierabend in “several years away” and not “close to majors”. Why?
Thanks!
I guess I’m a little surprised that Wlad is still Mariners property. Have they made him a key part of their plans or has it just worked out this way considering how trades went down?
Could you talk a little about Danny Carroll, I didn’t realize he was a legit prospect. Also what is Gallagher’s stuff like?
what do you think the upside of Alex Liddi is?
A .280/.360/.500 first baseman. I don’t think he’s going to stick at third, but the kid can hit – really strong, drives the ball well, good batspeed, good approach at the plate. He’s going to have to continue to hit well all the way through, though, as RH first baseman don’t have an easy path to the majors.
Any chance Tui ends up moving off 3B?
I think he sticks there for a few years at least. He might eventually end up in the outfield, but not anytime soon.
Is this a critique in comparison to other organizations in MLB, others in the AL West?
Not specifically the AL, but yes, I believe the M’s do a worse job than most clubs coaching their players the right way in order to maximize their abilities.
Does Gregory Halman have the athletic ability to stick in CF? Do you really see him with 290/330/530 potential?
The Halman comparison is more physical and approach than raw ability, those Halman has quite a bit too. If you watch him hit, though, Soriano’s the obvious comparison. But no, Halamn is more likely a .270/.320/.480 guy. Maybe something like Juan Encarnacion is a better comparison in terms of likely career, but he looks exactly like Soriano. And he’s not a CF long term, no.
This will likely be clear when the file is visible, but is the reward how you see the M’s using the player in his prime or how you would (specific instance: Morrow as reliever vs starter)?
It reflect reality, not a hypothetical world where we’re in charge.
What’s become of that South African kid, Anthony Phillips? Any expectation that we’ll see him at Everett at some point this summer?
He’s around, and yea, he could be in Everett this summer.
is it reasonable to call that selection, without insult to Clement’s real value, a major disappointment?
Well, that draft class is going down as one of the best of all time, so it’s not really fair to Clement to downgrade him for the guys around him all turning into superstars. But, yes, in retrospect, there’s a lot of other guys the M’s should have taken, and there’s almost no chance Clement turns out to be the 3rd best player in that draft.
Nolan Gallagher – now that Mickolio’s gone, it looks like it would be up to him to produce the all-Montana battery with Rob Johnson. I can’t find Gallagher on any of the rosters, though. Is he injured? Being held back to start pitching later in the year?
Yea, he’s hurt. Not sure how long he’s out for.
Can you expound on the 5 risk rating for Morrow? How much is due to risks common to pitchers with his skillset and how much due to the way he is being handled in the system?
It’s both. Right now, Morrow is a one pitch pitcher with a history of arm problems who couldn’t break camp with the team because he couldn’t throw strikes and his arm wouldn’t get loose. It doesn’t get a whole lot riskier than that.
You have Feierabend in “several years away†and not “close to majorsâ€. Why?
The organization doesn’t see him as an option in relief, and he’s behind both Baek and Dickey on the depth chart of guys they’d turn to if a starter got hurt. That makes him unlikely to see Seattle this year.
I guess I’m a little surprised that Wlad is still Mariners property. Have they made him a key part of their plans or has it just worked out this way considering how trades went down?
If they hadn’t decided to trade Jones for a pitcher, they’d have dealt Wlad this winter. Once they dealt AJ, they decided to keep him for some organizational outfield depth. I still expect the majority of any major league career he has will be with another club.
It’s nice to see that there are a couple guys who are capable of contributing to the M’s right now, in case anything should go wrong. Yeah, they’re only a little above replacement level, but it’s nice to see a few guys like that in the system. Especially when some of them have more upside.
What’s Trinufel’s track look like for this year? Start in the Cal League and up to West Tenn at mid-season? Could we expect to see him in Tacoma before year’s end?
The other guy I wonder about is Tui. Looks like you’ve got him projecting as a reserve in MLB. What’s his upside/downside look like?
Thanks, Dave. I love this part of your work.
So, does this mean you consider Denny Almonte a bust?
Could you talk a little about Danny Carroll, I didn’t realize he was a legit prospect.
The organization loves Carroll as a prototypical leadoff type, though they want him to cut down on the strikeouts. They love his speed and think he’ll grow into having gap power as he fills out. One scout compared him to Grady Sizemore, which I laughed at, and he chastised me for. I’m certainly not going that far, but it’s safe to say that the organization is very happy with him.
What’s Trinufel’s track look like for this year? Start in the Cal League and up to West Tenn at mid-season? Could we expect to see him in Tacoma before year’s end?
Probably a half year in High Desert and a half year in West Tennessee, assuming all goes well. I don’t think he sees Tacoma until 2009.
The other guy I wonder about is Tui. Looks like you’ve got him projecting as a reserve in MLB. What’s his upside/downside look like?
It really just depends on how he develops. There’s still some untapped physical ability there, but he’s getting to the point where he’s going to have to make some strides in driving the ball with regularity and becoming an offensive force. Right now, he’s a bit like Mike Morse, but he’s still got a shot to become a useful everyday player, even if not a star.
So, does this mean you consider Denny Almonte a bust?
I thought he was a bust when they drafted him – hitting .160 in the AZL didn’t change my mind.
Future Forty doesn’t seem to work from this end.
Notwithstanding the Adam Jones deal, which of the following 3 pitching prospects do you expect to have the best MLB career: Tillman, Butler, or Aumont?
Does Carlos Peguero have a shot at an everyday career?
Dave, I know you do not spend much time on relievers, but are there any under-the-radar relievers who could contribute in the majors later this season (kind of like Rowland-Smith, Lowe, and O’Flaherty in recent years).
Yea, we’re having problems with the file again – I found a few errors, tried to update it, and we’re struggling. Sorry.
Aumont-Tillman-Butler.
No.
Probably not, though if Stephen Kahn can figure out how to stay healthy and throw strikes, the stuff is still there. But that’s two things he’s never done before, so it’s unlikely he’ll do it now.
Dave,
Were you not going to include Kenta Suda and Yao Wen Chang amongst the international signees?
The Cabrera trade can’t be forgotten for its terrible, terrible, terribleness. I can’t not be excited about how he’s looked, and it just plain sucks it’s for the Tribe and not the M’s. Sucks.
Does Michael Wilson have any ability to help a MLB team? 4th outfielder?
Hey Dave, can you reconcile the difference between your opinion of Peguero and the BA crew’s? They like him a lot more than you do, and have him pegged as a major breakout candidate who can play a legit RF. Thoughts?
If Clement can’t stick behind the plate are there any internal options you like post- Kenji era?
What are Clement’s defensive liabilities?
Arm strength/accuracy?
Receiving?
Blocking?
Are all pitches typically called for the catchers in the M’s minor league system?
Is Austin Bibens-Dirkx a true ML prospect? Any news on his rehab?
I so want Austin Bibens-Dirkx to make it to the majors as the second hyphen in MLB history. I want to see that name in an on-screen crawl. I want to see the SportsCenter/BBTN guys deal with it. Heck, if he makes it with any team I’m buying a jersey.
Well, that draft class is going down as one of the best of all time, so it’s not really fair to Clement to downgrade him for the guys around him all turning into superstars. But, yes, in retrospect, there’s a lot of other guys the M’s should have taken, and there’s almost no chance Clement turns out to be the 3rd best player in that draft.
If you ever need an example of why you draft based on ability, not on need, this is the one to cite.
He does have a older brother that’s in the Braves system. Pitched at Myrtle Beach last year, and was leading Braves Minor Leaguers in Wins.
I’d agree that pitching depth really took a hit with the Bedard trade, but I’d clarify that to point specifically to arms that had the possibility of contributing in the near future. The club spent a good chunk of money on Kenta Suda and a decent amount on Yao-wen Chang as well. From what little I’ve read on both of them, they seem like they’d be taken in the top few rounds if they were domestic players of equal talent. Jeroen de Haas might be interesting as well, but don’t know quite as much about him.
I found the recent move of Nasuel Cabrera to the Pulaski affiliate interesting. It seems as though they’re planning on sending a number of the Latin American pitchers over there to get their feet wet. The M’s haven’t made any high-dollar pitcher signings out of there recently, it’s mostly just infielders and the occasional outfielder, but they like what they have enough to plan around it.
Depth that low in the minors is hardly depth at all, as we’ve all seen players dominate the AZL and go on to do nothing of note, but I believe there’s enough to work with down there that makes me feel somewhat comfortable. Add Buckborough and Mohr from last year’s draft to that mix, and I’d say the odds are good that few guys rise up and are worth talking about after this season.
Were you not going to include Kenta Suda and Yao Wen Chang amongst the international signees?
I haven’t been able to find out how much Suda signed for, which is generally the best proxy for how talented these international signings are. DeJesus, Noriega, and Nunez all signed for good chunks of change, so at least with them I have some tangible information to believe that they have some ability. With guys like Suda, all we really know is what the M’s tell us.
I’ve heard conflicting reports on Wen Chang’s signing bonus – one puts him in the $400K range, another in the $150K range. So, I passed on including him right now. He and Suda both have plenty of time to end up on the list, after all.
Does Michael Wilson have any ability to help a MLB team? 4th outfielder?
I don’t think so, no. He’s got raw power, but that’s his only baseball skill – the rest of his game is beer league level.
Hey Dave, can you reconcile the difference between your opinion of Peguero and the BA crew’s? They like him a lot more than you do, and have him pegged as a major breakout candidate who can play a legit RF. Thoughts?
I think BA and I are always going to disagree on that kind of player type, honestly. I just don’t believe that the oversized power guys with no other real baseball skills than hitting a fastball a long way develop into useful players very often. This is the underlying issue with my long time skepticism about Balentien and Wilson as well. I’ve had this same problem with BA falling in love with guys like Jason Stokes, too – I just don’t see much evidence that these one note power guys who lack pitch recognition or any kind of contact ability turn into the types of hitters that they’re labeled as having the potential to become, and they never offer any defensive value.
Realistically, what’s Peguero’s absolute upside? A .250/.300/.450 guy who fills out his 6’5 frame and loses his athleticism? And that’s if he makes it…
If Clement can’t stick behind the plate are there any internal options you like post- Kenji era?
Not in the organization, no. Rob Johnson can’t hit and Adam Moore can’t catch.
What are Clement’s defensive liabilities?
He’s got below average footwork, which is the root cause of most of his other issues. He doesn’t transfer his weight well, so he struggles blocking pitches in the dirt. He takes a while to get out of his crouch when throwing out runners, which leads to a slow release and a lot of late throws. And, he’s big – it’s not uncommon for catchers his size to develop knee and back problems, the latter of which he’s already had.
Is Austin Bibens-Dirkx a true ML prospect? Any news on his rehab?
His delivery gives him a shot at being a ROOGY one day.
Add Buckborough and Mohr from last year’s draft to that mix, and I’d say the odds are good that few guys rise up and are worth talking about after this season.
For sure – I know several people in the org. thing Buckborough was a big steal and are quite high on him. There are definitely a lot of intriguing pitching prospects in the low levels of the system, but the attrition rates for these kinds of arms is very, very high. We really need to see them survive the 18-20 arm massacre age before we start counting them as tangible depth in the system.
Dave, I look forward to the Future 40 being back up so I can check it out. My question: Is there any way to project a position player as a pitcher, such as Raphael Soriano? Any cannon-armed OFs that can’t hit who could make the switch to the mound? I know this is incredibly uncommon, but I’m very intrigued by the concept seeing how my favorite ex-Mariner has turned out.