Thank You, Mike Scioscia
Let’s see – bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, lefty reliever on the hill, and you’ve got two options:
LH Garret Anderson, career vs lefties: .290/.308/.443
RH Torii Hunter, career vs lefties: .282/.339/.490
It’s worth noting that Hunter’s posted an OPS of .900+ against LHPs in each of the last three years as well. His career numbers vs lefties are deflated by poor performances earlier in his career, and our expectation of his actual ability should be weighted towards more recent performances. So, Hunter’s likely an even better true talent hitter against southpaws than this shows.
If you’re Mike Scoiscia, this is a pretty easy call, right? Hunter’s the better hitter and has the platoon advantage. Even if you believe in stuff like playing the hot hand and clutch hitting, well, Torii Hunter wins there too. Anderson’s hitting like the broken down old shell of his former self that he is, and lefties have dominated him this year. Hunter, meanwhile, tore the cover off the ball all weekend.
As a Mariner fan, I’ll simply thank Scioscia for the gift. But man, what a terrible decision that was.
Has Garret Anderson ever been pitch hit for? I don’t think Scioscia had the guts to pull the trigger on that one.
The cameraman seemed to know it with all of the Tori
Hunter shots during the ab.
Hmm…Scioscia choosing the “professional hitter” over the hot hand who may have won him the game. Interesting, indeed.
I always for some reason feel weird to see when other managers make bad decisions. I am then reminded the Mariners’ situation is not at all unique.
I have no doubt that, were he to trade spots with Scioscia, McLaren would have done the exact same thing. They both would have likely pinch-hit for the next batter, Kotchman, were Anderson able to get aboard but not win the game.
Pinch hitters always do worse than regulars, i.e. pinch hitting is harder than starting the game. This might reduce the difference between Hunter and Anderson quite a bit.
When Scioscia gave Hunter the day off, he probably meant a full day off, no exceptions, hoping a situation like this wouldn’t happen. Oh well… moral of the story, don’t get in car accidents.
that’s what I was wondering about — did they say he was suffering at all from the accident?
I think Scioscia made the right call. Anderson, despite the fact that he is not his former self, is still a good hitter. He had him hitting in the cleanup spot, displaying confidence in Anderson to drive in runs in crucial situations. This is where the human element comes in. Do you really pull Anderson in this situation, a clear cut sign of less confidence in your cleanup hitter, for Hunter? I think the result could’ve been 50/50 but by pulling Anderson in a big situation in April could’ve sent a bad message to Anderson. The human element is undeniably a very large issue in baseball, and it comes in here. If this were the 7-9 hitter or Matthews even at 2 it could be a different story. But Scioscia has already established that Anderson is in the cleanup spot, and you can’t pull a guy in that spot in a big situation in April; you risk losing his trust or more (i.e. Scott Rolen / Tony LaRussa).
Garrett “out-veterans” Torii. You all know Mac would do the exact same thing.
Unless McClaren somehow knew that Hunter was unavailable, his choices should have been Morrow vs Anderson or RRS vs Hunter. I would have stuck with Morrow in that situation.
Hey, no word on Doyle going to the DL? C’mon, where is the cult?
Pinch hitters always do worse than regulars, i.e. pinch hitting is harder than starting the game. This might reduce the difference between Hunter and Anderson quite a bit.
Great point. I’ll have to check my Book to see exactly what the pinch hitting penalty is…
So, do you think the hardcore fans at the Angels’ version of USS Mariner are berating Scioscia like we would McLaren had McLaren made the same move?
and TJ Bohn takes his place on the bench … Dobbie the Bench Elf is playing 3rd tonight.
weird. Jon Miller didn’t point out that Adam Eaton went to Snohomish High School.
I don’t remember exactly how large it is but I don’t think that the pinch-hitting penalty is enough to overcome the difference between Torii Hunter and Garrett Anderson, especially if we assume that Anderson is in his decline right now and playing worse than his career averages.
Halo Heaven Angels fans were screaming for Hunter to be inserted as pinch hitter in real time, as well as in post-game analysis…
I would disagree that Halo Heaven is the Angels’ version of USSM, but okay.
It isn’t. Halo’s Heaven is the Angel’s version of Geoff Baker’s blog comments section.
…or perhaps Lookout Landing — point of emphasis is not equating USSM w/ HH, but rather noting that even relatively simple-minded fans were seeing the move and criticizing Scioscia
Unless Mike Scoiscia has balls the size of the state of Texas there is no way he takes Garrett Anderson out of the game. Sure the statistics suggest Hunter was better suited for the situation but Mike has to work with Garrett for the next 5 months. Ego’s matter
From what I’ve heard of it Halo’s Heaven sounds more like a combination of the worst elements of LL plus the worst elements of Baker’s blog, without the better features of either. In particular, without Jeff Sullivan, Matthew, Gomez, Graham, or Geoff Baker.
I’ve never understood why Garret Anderson’s reputation is so good. During the broadcast, the M’s guys were cooing over him. But the last time I’d say that he was good, and by that I mean “clearly contributing over what an average player would give you” was 2003. And he pretty much moved off center after 2000, so it’s not like he’s playing a premium defensive position (except 2004, when he was back there for 94 games) that would make his hitting more valuable.
And 2003′s the only time he’s been in the top ten in the league for any rate stat.
He’s paid $10m a year, too, and I don’t read a lot of mentions of what a horrible deal that was, especially compared to how often you see that Beltre’s contract was a bust (of course, my viewpoint’s probably skewed, since I consume far more Mariner-related information).
Pinch hitting is tough. If I showed you four guys and told you they were a combined 3 for 42 pinch hitting, would you think any of them were decent hitters? What if I told you they were Alex Rodriguez (0 for 8 PA) Jimmy Rollins (1 for 13) Ichiro (1 for 11) and Vladimir Guerrero (1 for 10)?
Torii Hunter: 2 for 20.
Garret Anderson is the single most overrated player of our lifetime. How someone views him as a player can effectively be used as a litmus test for whether you should care what they think about baseball or not.
I understand the argument, but the manager’s job is to win games, not to make Garret happy. If Garret’s going to pout and underperform if he’s down (okay, first, how would you notice if he was underperforming) then it’s the manager’s job to massage that ego and keep everyone happy.
Dusty Baker, for all his faults, has always been great at that, from getting players to accept roles to being able to make pinch-hitting decisions for the good of the team. It’s something every manager has to be able to do in situations like that.
I think it’s similar to the reputation for Alfonso Soriano’s. The batting average and counting stats look good, but these people don’t take into account just how many outs these guys make.
Soriano is way, way better than Garret Anderson. Garret Anderson is a below average player and has been for almost his entire career.
Garret looks good while playing, and is widely thought of as a gentleman, and as a team guy, and I’m sure that all plays into it.
Jorge Sosa vs TJ Bohn in Battle of the Mariner Minor Leaguers.
what a surprise, Sosa won that round.
You guys may think he is overrated but he still scares me every time he comes up to the plate against us. For the SABR fans, sure his stats could suggest that he is overrated. However, he’s been a mainstay in that lineup for years, has had many clutch hits, and at the end of his career he could possibly achieve the following: 3,000 hits, 500 doubles, 300 HR, lifetime .290+ AVG, and 1,500 RBI. To many those stats are meaningless….but to a lot of hall voters that could get him in (granted he has over 700 hits to go to get to 3,000 hits).
I’m not a SABR guy so I hope you guys can respect my opinion. But I think he’s a solid hitter, his defense has never been gold glove quality but he’s been a good hitter his whole career.
speaking of numbers, Larry Stone has an entertaining column about Brian Bannister, SABR fan.
“Ah, but McCracken’s studies were an alarm bell to Bannister, because they would seem to indicate that his .264 BABIP was so absurdly low last year that he is destined to regress to the mean. In other words, he just got lucky last year.”
There’s no such thing as a “SABR fan”.
You know what I am talking about Dave.
From 6-4-2, a rational blog:
The M’s looked awfully nervous for a team with a two-run lead and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, but they brought in Ryan Rowland-Smith, whom Anderson had never hit in four previous tries, to the mound, and that succeeded in finishing the victory for the M’s. (Why didn’t Mike give GA the hook in favor of the appreciably hotter Torii Hunter? I have no idea.)
I was listening on radio while running errands, and I thought they said it looked like Hunter was going to PH for Kotchman, if it went that far.
I never considered the possibility that Scioscia would PH for GA. It’s the whole veteran respect BS that all managers have to deal with, and like most, he preferred to err on the side of the player. McLaren sure would have.
Having those two LHB’s back-to-back in the lineup sure begged for McLaren to use a LHP to face them in a late and close situation.
Soriano is certainly better than Anderson. But I still think he’s overrated due to his lack of walks. This is also the main reason why I think Anderson is overrated.
#24 Interesting choice to bring up Dusty Baker in this discussion. Dusty’s great decision making took Russ Ortiz out of a pretty important game against the Angels. That didn’t turn out well. Nonetheless, it does prove your point that Dusty has solid control of the clubhouse.
Can a manager win games (enough to get to the playoffs) and have unhappy players? I’m sure its possible to a certain degree but players have to feel some level of comfort to perform at a high level.
In a video game you can take Garret Anderson out in the 9th inning and pay him 10million dollars at the same time. I’m not so sure you can do that in real life.
I’m not so sure you can do that in real life.
If you’re a weak leader or you have guys who aren’t team players, sure. But if all the hot air about Garrett Anderson being such a great guy and Mike Scioscia being such a great leader is true, the leader ought to be able to convince his 36-year-old subordinate that for the good of the team, sometimes he will need to be lifted for a right-handed pinch hitter.
There’s no such thing as a “SABR fanâ€.
Dave, I think there are some hockey fans in Buffalo who would care to differ.
no?!
nice to have someone write about it all without taking the ‘ain’t it wacky’ tone. yet another reason to be happy Larry Stone is here.
Thank you Scioscia!!!! I will thank him every day of the week … what a surprising move by such a good manager. As much as I hate the Halos – Scioscia is one of the best. Surprising move today.
I don’t think the Angels are particularly stat savvy (though relative to the Ms they certainly are). They drool over batting average and have assembled lineups full of out-makers for years.
I think they are under the impression that Garret Anderson will hit like he did toward the end of last season (.333/.396/.556 in September) at some point . I don’t know Anderson personally, but he’s a baseball “star” so I’m going to assume that he probably has an ego that needs to be protected (nice guy or not). If the Angels think he is a slumping star, then they are inclined to keep him happy in exchange for a suboptimal match-up in an April game. It was a bad move, but I think it was in line with Anderson’s undeserved reputation as a slugger (who’s never walked as many as 40 times in a year!).
Did anyone see the article in the Seattle Times about Batista finding some type of new method? I don’t know if there’s anything to this but I’m certain that none of us had him pegged for 8 strikeouts today.
I don’t know who should be more offended, Batista because this is condescending, Felix & Bedard because it implies they’re no better than Batista/Washburn/Silva/Dickey, or me because it insults my intelligence so grievously.
From The Book, there’s a 6% decrease in wOBA when pinch hitting, or about .021 points of wOBA for an average hitter. Eyeballing the splits Dave listed in the post, that probably bumps Hunter’s advantage down to maybe .010 points of wOBA (more if you only take into account Hunter’s more recent track record against lefties.)
I’d still trade McLaren for Scioscia any day. I don’t know that Scioscia will win you a ton of games, as I’m a firm believer in managers not being as important to a team as talent. However, bad moves will lose you games, and I bet McLaren does it far more often.
I suppose I’d have to see a larger sample of Scioscia’s work, but I don’t think I’ve heard any Angels fans complain too loud.
Oh, lay off, already.
This is ego stroking. Team knows it. Felix and Erik know it and almost certainly don’t care.
The only people who care are nitpickers–there’s plently of stuff that McLaren does that’s TRULY bad, so don’t carp on the stuff that’s actually OK, like public stroking of your talent.
The Angels broadcast team during the game repeatedly pointed out that Anderson is the franchise leader in RBIs, and thus was the perfect choice to hit there.
I can’t imagine Scioscia’s reasoning was quite that bad, but it’s something to consider.
Turn the question over, what would McLaren do?
Let’s say McLaren had a really good righty on the bench in the late innings (say that Beltre had the day off), would McLaren ever pinch hit for Raul?
A few things to know about Scioscia:
1) When he says he is going to give a player the day off, he doesn’t mean “a day off from starting”. That player might as well not suit up that day. Scioscia is a real believer in the need to rest veterans and get them off their legs. The Angels have a travel day today before opening for 3 in Boston and Scioscia was going to stick to his plans.
2) He is going to respect the veteran until said veteran shows he no longer belongs in the lineup. He will occasionally do defensive replacements in the bottom of the 9th, but otherwise he won’t pull a veteran hitter for a pinch hitter. It isn’t the way he deals with veterans.
3) If you believe in the value of situational stats so early in the season, Anderson had hit .270 in 2-out-RISP situations (3 for 11, 5 RBI) and Hunter hit .125 (1 for 8, 0 RBI), which indicates Hunter was not a lock to create magic at that moment. Scioscia most likely wasn’t even taking that into consideration.
Furthermore, I haven’t seen Anderson’s “ego” displayed, despite all the conjecture here that Scioscia is simply managing GA’s ego instead of the entire team. Anderson has pride, as does any veteran, and no player wants to be pinch-hit for, but he isn’t going to pout or trash the locker room.
Finally, no love at all for Rowland-Smith? The posts here act as if his pitching had nothing to do with the outcome of the game. He ran the count full, threw him one fastball early and the rest all off-speed, set up Anderson well on the outside, and got Anderson looking, expecting Ball 4. Rather than assume that Hunter would have guaranteed a loss for the Mariners, why not assume that R-S is good enough to have struck out either of them?
they are pitchers; they have all been brought up in the ‘there is no no. 1 after opening day’ school of thought
28- Sounds like you are describing Derek Jeter.
Scioscia made the right move. Hunter’s back was sore from a car accident (you could see him grab it and wince after he robbed Richie on Friday). I’d take Anderson in that spot over someone who had been sitting for nine innings with a stiff back.
There’s no such thing as a “SABR fanâ€.
Dave, I think there are some hockey fans in Buffalo who would care to differ.
Poor Buffalo — that awful weather, rusting factories, and nobody knows how to spell.
I guess I should have included a link to a picture of my tongue, because it was firmly in my cheek.