Mussina should be in the Hall of Fame discussion indeed
I usually roll my eyes at phrases like this. When people say that a player belongs in the MVP discussion or whatever, they almost always mean “He certainly isn’t the MVP, but we might talk about him as the MVP if the other ten all caught fire tomorrow.”
What’s that conversation like?
“Who are you voting for on your ballot? Say, at the 8th or 9th position?”
“Joe Shlabotnik, he’s done a lot to keep the Pirates from losing 110 games.”
“I have him at 7.”
“Seven seems high. But I’m glad we both have him in the conversation.”
In rough order, here are the active pitchers who should get in:
Greg Maddux (twice, if possible)
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
(Then the cloud of possibles: Glavine, Moyer, Smoltz, Schilling)
Pedro and Mussina provide a great contrast: Pedro’s peak was just astonishing, even though he’s been fragile and his time as a Met’s been injury-ridden while he struggles to hit career marks. Against that, Mussina’s a Hall of Fame candidate by being consistently excellent, often in Pedro’s shadow. If you’re ever willing to buy that a player can get in by being one of the best for a long time, this is your player.
Mussina’s been in the top ten for ERA ten times in his career. Eight of those times he was in the top five. He’s the 91st-best pitcher ever at not walking guys, the 75th-best at striking them out. And remember, when we talk about those, he’s going up against guys like Al Spalding, John Ward, Pud Gavin, Candy Cummings — every pitcher in every era, while Mussina’s debut was in 1991 and he’s toiled in an offense-heavy game.
He hasn’t piled up his career wins by grinding out season after season of ineffective baseball, either — he’s got those rate stats and is fifth on the active pitcher list for innings pitched.
I don’t see how anyone can look at Mussina’s amazing career and not see someone who deserves induction as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
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I assume both will eventually get in, but I consider Smoltz more deserving. Going into today, both guys have 3394 innings pitched. Smoltz has over 300 more strikeouts and a better ERA+ (127 to 122).
Also, Smoltz has been able to exhibit sustained excellence well into his year 41 season (until this latest possibly career ending injury), while Mussina has been been below average 3 of the last 4 years (and looks to be headed to another below average year).
I disagree that Mussina deserves to be in the Hall… He is the Fred Mcgriff of pitching. While his overall numbers are solid, he was never considered one of the most dominant pitchers in the AL. He had 2-3 dominant years with Baltimore, but other than those few years he has just been solid. I think he is very close, but falls a little short. If Bert Blyleven isn’t a HOFer then Mussina definitely isn’t worthy of the honor.
I normally agree with what you write, but I have to respectfully disagree with you on Mussina.
As felixday posted above, he’s had a good solid career, but he’s never been a dominant pitcher, a guy who would go out there and just excell.
When I think of the hall, I think of pitchers so overwhelmingly good that they cannot be denied. He’s never won a Cy Young, only one top 3 finish shows that even among his peers he’s not seen as a dominant pitcher.
Sorry, he’s had a nice career, but there’s no way I can see him as a HoFer.
I don’t see how there is any doubt about Tom Glavine – 300 wins and counting, 5 20-win seasons, Cy Young award, game 6 of the ’95 series, and character that is a credit to baseball, and humanity. What’s the counter-argument?
If I had a hall of fame vote, I would refuse to vote for any Yankees even if it was obvious that they were one of the best. Mussina probably deserves to get in based on the long period of being good, but the long period of being a Yankee diminishes that for me. It’s probably a good thing that I don’t have a vote.
my reasons are not biased like the post above… I honestly think he doesn’t deserve to be in the hall. If you compare Blyleven to Mussina it isn’t close.
My list goes:
Maddux
Randy
Pedro
Glavine
Smoltz
Mussina and Schilling I kinda put on the same level. The difference, in my mind, is that Schilling had a higher peak surrounded by good but not great seasons, where Mussina had a lower peak, lasted longer at that peak, but then turned into a good but not great pitcher the last 5-7 years.
Mussina seems like the latter-day Blyleven, and I expect he’ll be in Blyleven’s position 20 years from now — waiting for the Veterans Committee to see he’s an outlier.
Moyer I have no idea what do to do with. He’s such an unusual player — didn’t start to climb to his peak until his 30th birthday, very good deep into his 40s — but at the same time he never really had the peak that any of the others on the list had.
After Moyer, I’d put David Wells and Kenny Rogers. Neither of them will make the Hall.
If you compare Blyleven to Mussina it isn’t close.
Blyleven’s ERA+/WHIP: 118/1.198
Mussina’s ERA+/WHIP: 122/1.190
They’re a lot closer than you think.
felixday,
I understand what you’re saying, but you can’t just ignore the guy’s resume. Sure, maybe he’s never been the most feared pitcher in baseball, but what does that really mean? You can’t quantify that, so it would be fair to judge him on perception.
I think they’re probably ranked this way by voters:
Maddux
Randy
Pedro
Gavine
Smoltz
Schlling
Mussina
Moyer
I just think Glavine/Smoltz will be better remembered and Schilling will get credit for ending the Red Sox World Series drought.
The first commentor already commented on Smoltz candidacy so I will leave that one alone, but it seems impossible to me name Mussina as a hall of famer and not Glavine. Their era+’s (not the end all be all of statistics of course) are 122 and 119 respectively essentially a dead heat. Granted Mussina compiled his numbers in the DH league but Glavine pitched roughly 1000 more innings, a massive difference. More subjectively Glavine had more all star apperences and won 2 Cy Youngs to Mussina’s 0. Glavine also had a second and third place finish. I am not sure Mussina is a hall of famer (I probably would not vote for him but its close), but it seems obvious to me that Glavine is a superior candidate.
1st ballot? I don’t see that. The guy’s had a great career, just there are others that’ll get in before him. The lack of a World Series Championship will keep him from the hall at first. I am not certain as to whether that’s fair or not, just believe that a career like his without a ring will keep him out a couple years after he’s eligible.
Besides, we should be talking about Chris Bosio. That he’s out not in yet makes me question the sanity of hall voters. Sorry, kidding…
If Rafael Palmeiro doesn’t get in, Mussina shouldn’t either. Compiling stats over a long period of time but not being even among the top few players on your team for several years should not get you in the hall. Yes, Mussina’s been a good player, but I don’t put him in the hall.
I’d go Maddux, Randy, Smoltz, Pedro, then a hole bunch of questionables. I don’t put Schilling, Mussina, or Moyer in, but Glavine might make it.
Palmeiro isn’t getting in the HALL because of a different reason. R O I D S
Ok then – Biggio.
I don’t see how Mussina is more accomplished than Schilling. I don’t know if Mussina deserves the hall (frankly I don’t care, HoF enshrinement is irrelevant), but Schilling deserves it more than Mussina does.
Joe C.
Craig Biggio will probably walk into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. And deserve it. (And I’ve only been following baseball through the less impressive half of his career.)
That’s absolutely not true, and the Cy Young voting if nothing else should prove that.
I don’t understand what that means, but if you’re arguing he wasn’t the most valuable player on his team and so can’t be a Hall of Fame electee, that’s crazy — you’d be arguing that just on the Mariners, you’d have to discount years by Alex/Griffey/Randy entirely because they weren’t the best in a particular season.
Using VORP:
Mussina was the best pitcher in baseball in 1992. He was almost twice as valuable as the most valuable Oriole hitter, Brady Anderson.
In 1994, he was the second-best pitcher in baseball, behind Maddux.
In 1995, he was the third-best pitcher in baseball, behind Randy.
I don’t understand how this can be described as a good and not great peak.
Glavine included in a “cloud of possibles”??? Glavine “might make it”??? Are you kidding me?
4400 innings at a 3.50 ERA is ridiculous (oh, that’s right, ERA is an inherently flawed stat, oh my). Well, I guess the two cy youngs, 5-20 win seasons (including 3 in a row), a World Series ring, 12 all-star inductions, 200 postseason innings pitched…..oh and 300 Wins will have to seal the deal, though not on this board. I guarantee all this will lead to a darn near unanimous first ballot hall of fame induction.
I’m open to persuasion on Mussina. Instinctively I bracket him in my mind as a sort of Bernie Williams of pitchers – I’d love to have had him on my team throughout his career, but probably not good enough for the Hall. But conversely I think Blyleven should be elected – and sooner than later – so I wouldn’t reject Mussina out of hand.
Schilling has been a lesser pitcher over his career, but his heroics (and rings) in 2001 and 2004 will give him a better shot at Cooperstown.
Derek – when I think of great Yankee players over the past 20 years, I think of Mattingly, Paul O’Neil, Pettite, Jeter, Mariano and Clemens. To me Mussina is an afterthought. I think that even a biased fan who hates the Yankees should be able to look at a player before looking at the stats and say this guy belongs in and that guy not. He’s a good player but not good enough to make it in my opionion. Yes the stats are important, but I don’t think that alone can get a guy in. The stats will get him in the conversation, but I don’t think he deserves to be in.
Joe
You think nothing of Jorge Posada or Bernie Williams? I think you’re pitching O’Neill and Pettitte kinda high.
I’m not pitching O’Neill & Pettite high, I’m pitching Mussina low.
Posada – Probably in
Bernie Williams – No
I disagree with the logic of this assertion:
“I think that even a biased fan… should be able to look at a player before looking at the stats and say this guy belongs in and that guy not.”
Care to clarify? Because it sounds is if voters should be dispatching Gabe Kappler to the HoF based on his Greek-statue-like physique, while rejecting Pedro Martinez summarily because he’s barely 5’10″.
You’ve got O’Neill right but you’re still shorting Pettitte on consonants. He needs a fourth ‘t’.
I just hope some pedantic moderator doesn’t catch you.
Blyleven’s ERA+/WHIP: 118/1.198
Mussina’s ERA+/WHIP: 122/1.190
They’re a lot closer than you think.
Blyleven also threw 1500 more innings than Mussina and as a result 1000+ more strikeouts. Blyleven is well above Mussina going on stats.
Well… okay, if that’s your opinion, that’s fine. But omitting his time in Baltimore… I don’t know what to tell you. If you only consider time with one team and that time’s subjective position, that’s your choice.
Just glancing at the WARP3 totals over the years, I would lean towards inducting Maddux, Randy, Pedro, Mussina, Glavine, Smoltz, and Schilling, with Glavine as the most borderline for me. It kind of seems like a lot, but they were all great pitchers, and we’re talking about a 15-20 year period of time where they pitched. Everyone on that list has over 120 career WARP3 except Pedro and Schilling, who are each over 110 career WARP3 and have multiple 10+ WARP3 seasons. Moyer seems to be quite a bit behind that group, though.
Unfortunately, I lot of HOF voters will look at Mussina’s career and not vote for him. Out of all the pitchers listed, I believe that both Moyer and Mussina will be left out. Moyer’s exclusion from the Hall is understandable. Yet if the HOF voters can’t reach the obvious conclusion that Blyleven is worthy of induction, Mussina will have a tough time.
“when I think of great Yankee players over the past 20 years, I think of Mattingly, Paul O’Neil, Pettite, Jeter, Mariano and Clemens. To me Mussina is an afterthought.”
Here’s a problem:
Mussina’s career has been better than O’Neill’s, Pettite’s, and Mattingly’s. It hasn’t been close.
It’s been better than Bernie’s by a lesser margin.
Jeter, Mariano, and Clemens are first-balloters by any objective measure.
Moyer, like Edgar, isn’t getting in. Glavine, Smoltz, and Schilling are all getting in. Mussina, who has -imho- been better than Smoltz and Schilling over his career, will probably not make it via sportswriter vote.
Life ain’t fair.
What I mean is that aside from the stats you should be able to step back and say ‘wow that guy had a good career’. I think Maddux and Randy Johnson have that, but in my opinion I don’t think Moyer, Schilling, or Mussina do.
I’m a bit lost.
“I usually roll my eyes at phrases like this. When people say that a player belongs in the MVP discussion or whatever, they almost always mean “He certainly isn’t the MVP, but we might talk about him as the MVP if the other ten all caught fire tomorrow.—
I assume you mean is Mussina worthy of HOF consideration. I’m of the opinion the various Halls of Fame are not as difficult to get into as they should be. I’m not sure his numbers, while impressive, are worthy. He is still pitching though, which deserves respect but not necessarily Cantonization.
The reality is, so long as Pete Rose in not in the MLB Hall of Fame it isn’t really more than a Hall of PR.
How would one judge “Wow that guy had a good career” with NO reference to stats? That’s just an assessment of one’s own, necessarily limited, experience and subjective biases. For a long time I thought Roger Clemens was over-rated. I arrived in the US in 1998, and remember him mainly as a hated Yankee. Then I went and looked up his stats and realized that he might actually be the best pitcher EVER (albiet one with a big old cloud over his head right now).
And I still don’t understand your criteria. For example, I would look at Moyer and think, “that guy had a really good career”, without suggesting that he should have a plaque in Cooperstown. I don’t understand how you could look at Curt Schilling and NOT think “That guy had a good career”. All these guys had really good careers. Are you suggesting that say, 230 wins, 2125 strikeouts and a 4.21 ERA could fairly be described as a BAD career? (But there I go again, dragging in those pesky numbers).
So I suspect you mean something slightly different, such as “He’s undoubtedly among the all time greats”, or “I remember him as the best X in baseball between 19XX and 20XX”. But I’ll go back to my earlier point that that’s a terrible way to make decisions.
To illustrate the horribly flawed method you are suggesting I’ll point out that earlier you suggest future First-Ballot-HoFer Craig Biggio as a not-getting-in-the-hall player. I don’t what yardstick you could use to arrive at that conclusion. Perhaps you only remember the mediocrity of his last season?
Ollie
Thank you for sparing Mike Mussina the fate of Switzerland.
Mussina really is a HoF’er. Most of the arguments above against his inclusion feature very fuzzy logic and subjective criteria with little or no basis in cold hard facts.
As an aside, you can make a very good argument that Fred McGriff is a Hall of Famer.
and pitched in Camden
in some ways, Moyer & Edgar seem to be in the same boat regarding the HOF– in some ways we want them in almost because of their unusual qualities– a doubles-leader who is slower than mud, the pitcher who made a career despite his failings …
You guys are shortchanging Schilling.
His career ERA+ is 127. That’s significantly better than Mike Mussina. He finished second to Pedro Martinez for the 1997 NL Cy Young award. He finished second to Randy Johnson for another NL Cy Young Award and he finished second to Johan Santana for the 2004 AL Cy Young award. He’s got some black ink and he’s got a terrific postseason record throughout his career (1993, 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2007) to point to. Yes, Mussina has won more games but a 127 ERA+ compared to a 121 or 122 is fairly significant.
> Moyer, like Edgar, isn’t getting in.
Excuse me for pointing out that there is a fricking MLB award in Edgar’s name. He WILL get in. PERIOD.
Moyer, I hope he does too, but perhaps it will end up not.
I’m a huge advocate for Edgar, but that’s far from a done deal. Beyond the merits of the case, the amount of feedback I got from people who felt otherwise speaks the number of people who don’t feel the same way I did.
all you have to do is hear the splits among the national guys on the subject– those who still refuse to acknowledge that the DH is a viable position, even after it has existed for a third of MLBs life …
DMZ: I understand what you are saying, however, respectfully, how could one have a national MLB award given annually in their name — and then not get into the MLB HOF?
IMO, Edgar will get in, definitely. He will.
I just came here to commend DMZ on pulling the name Joe Shlabotnik out of Charles Schulz’s grave.
Actually, I could make a case where having an award nmaed after him was done purposely as his consolation prize for not making the Hall. But this isn’t about Edgar.
Without looking at stats, the feeling I usually get from Mussina is “good but not great”. Thing is, I wanted him badly back when Baltimore said they wouldn’t re-sign him, so obviously I thought he was great enough for my team. And so I think that’s part of why he seems to lack some luster. My expectations of him after his days in Baltimore have made it so that I can’t think of him as great.
Weird isn’t it? I know he’s performed well in New York, but he was never as good as he was for the O’s. Maybe it’s because we get so much Yankee coverage nation wide that I have a general feeling of apathy towards him. I don’t know. Can’t explain it.
Having a national MLB award is not necessarily persuasive to the people who will cast the votes. I wish it was.
I agree that Edgar should get in, but there is certainly no guarantee that he will get in. Many writers with Hall of Fame votes are on record saying that they will never vote in a player who was primarily a DH. Also, since Edgar got a late start he doesn’t have the kind of slam-dunk counting stats to overpower such objections.
Yeah, the award was named after him, but that’s neither here nor there. I would like to say that a player with a career OPS+ of 147 can’t possibly be excluded. One can, though, because the hall gatekeepers are not very good at their job.
DMZ – It’s all fine and well that you think Mussina should be in the HOF discussion. I do, too.
But you don’t do yourself any favors trying to make a coherent list with Tom Glavine outside the absolutely sure-thing, can’t-miss even if he wanted to Hall of Famers. He’s in. He’s right there with Maddux and Randy Johnson on the active list, and he’s arguably one of the top 25 pitchers ever, easily one of the top 50.
Glavine’s ERA+ puts him in a tie for 118th all-time. His WHIP is good for 484th. I really don’t know how you could arrive at the conclusion you did with anything other than his win total. There’s something to be said for longevity, but there’s a lot more to be said for a dominant peak. Glavine was great at his peak, but not as great as the most of the other pitchers in this discussion. A career strikeout to walk ratio of under two just doesn’t scream “Hall of Fame” to me.
Moyer is a lock – not for a while though… Check out his HOF plaque.
Ol’ One Mississippi, Two Mississippi
Not to mention, Blyleven still won damn near 300 games despite pitching for some pretty mediocre teams through a lot of his career (i.e. early 70′s MIN, TEX, early 80′s CLE, & ANA before they were a faux-dynasty).
I too don’t understand how Glavine is easily one of the top fifty pitchers ever.
I can tell you why: voters are morons.
They’ll vote Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux in because of the greatness that was the Atlanta Braves pitching staff of the 90′s. Doesn’t matter what their final numbers are, if they’re even close to HOF worthy, they’ll get in on that romantic notion alone.
Well, just quickly checking the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia for Runs Saved leaders (1900-2006: I didn’t upgrade after last season, so it’s slightly out-of-date) Glavine is 17th all-time with 318 RSAA. That’s a fairly compelling case for being one of the top fifty pitchers ever.
Mussina, by the way, was 20th with 310, but he must’ve dropped several places last year. Kevin Brown is 22nd. Just sayin’…
I’m assuming you mean active starting pitchers Derek? You’d have to include Rivera if not.
Smoltz in my opinion is definitely more deserving than Mussina, he’s at least one step ahead every category other than wins, but keep in mind Smoltz moved to the pen for 3 years.