Braun’s deal
DMZ · May 15, 2008 at 12:00 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Ryan Braun signed a monster deal through 2015 for $45m.
I had two thoughts:
– for all my disagreement with the way revenue sharing’s been implemented, seeing teams lock up their youngsters to huge, long deals is exactly what it was supposed to help with, and it’s helped that
– Felix
I owe et a Coke apparently.
Coke Cherry Zero, if I may.
Felix’s similarity score is 19.
That’s sick. Isn’t that like Ichiro’s similarity score? I thought there’s disclaimer saying pretty much, ‘If the score is below 30 (or something) disregard’.
Overall, it seems like a smart move by Milwaukee.
Beyond that, I am extremely jealous of the lineup the Brew Crew is assembling. Over the next two years, they will have the following mashers in their batting order:
Braun
Fielder
Hart
LaPorta
Gamel (assuming he can play defense somewhere)
Weeks (I am still high on him despite his struggles)
Name one Mariner who is likely to mash like those guys over the next five years. Beltre? Clement? Balentien?
54 –
Adam Jones?
Too soon?
Over the next two years, they will have the following mashers in their batting order:
Talk about Harvey’s Wallbangers. Even if their pitching doesn’t hold together they’re going to be a blast to watch.
*jealous*
I am familiar with the similarity scores displayed on the player pages at baseball-reference.com, but where does the 19 for Felix come from? Would somebody please be so kind to enlighten me with a link or some belittling commentary?
Even with all the shuffling the Brewers defense is still a nightmare. Not as big a nightmare as ours…
From BP’s Pecota page:
Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a player’s comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the player’s historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established.
Note, though, that individual similarity scores for the 10 listed above are higher than 19.
but where does the 19 for Felix come from? Would somebody please be so kind to enlighten me with a link or some belittling commentary?
Each player gets a score based upon how, I don’t know, how easy (?) it is to comp them to other players. Ichiro’s is really low. There hasn’t been many players like him. The higher the score the more comfortable PECOTA is comping their projected careers I assume. I gave up paying for BPro so someone else can probably explain it better.
Uh huh. Please feel free to erase my previous post.
Speaking of deals, hopefully the M’s will lock this kid up. Copied from Stark’s Rumblings:
• WHO WANTS TO BE A $6-MILLIONAIRE: Two weeks ago in Rumblings, we wrote about the buzz building around 16-year-old Dominican pitcher Michel Inoa. One scouting director told us this week the Yankees and Mariners are already sending signals they’re prepared to throw $3 million to $4 million at Inoa — which would double the largest bonus ever for a Dominican pitcher — “and it wouldn’t surprise me if somebody eventually goes to $6 million.” Whew. The bidding doesn’t open until July 2, if you want to mark your calendars.
Many thanks, Dan. If there were a way I could subscribe to BP without my wife to kicking me in the tool box, I would be all over it.
For comparison purposes, here are some similarity scores for other players:
Braun — 46
Ichiro — 19
Felix — 19
Pujols — 29 (Really? I thought he’d be lower.)
Ankiel — 19 (!!!)
Bonds — 0 (Did you have any doubt?)
Glad to see the Brewers finally have the money to offer contracts like this and keep some of the players they draft and bring up in their farm system.
What I notice the most about this deal is that the guy was drafted by the team three years ago. This is what the M’s need to start doing more often. Free agency and trades haven’t worked for this team. It’s time for this team to start focusing on using players they draft and to start coaching them to play in the pitcher’s park they play in.
How does your wife feel about USSM? What makes BP toolbox-kick-worthy?
Or is a general money-for-baseball issue?
Nectar of the gods. I am afraid it is going to end up like that Seinfeld episode with the allegedly non-fat yogurt.
Ugh. Apologies for the bquote fiasco. It is getting late in the day.
I’m kind of surprised that Roger Clemens doesn’t come up as a comparable to Felix.
Success at a young age? Check.
Good strike out rate? Check.
Good groundball rate? Check.
Coke Cherry Zero, if I may.
Nectar of the gods. I am afraid it is going to end up like that Seinfeld episode with the allegedly non-fat yogurt.
I tried drinking that and the Cherry tastes just like the regular. Also, any of the Zero sodas have to be ice friggin’ cold to drink.
Yeah, but I wasn’t making any sort of argument about Felix’s projected ability. I was simply showing what happens to most pitchers who start pitching in the majors at a young age. Every single one has great raw ability – that’s how they made it to majors so early – but most of them have relatively short careers, peaking in their low 20’s, and ceasing to be great by the time they’re 27. In fact, if you look at the next 10 PECOTA comps – again, guys who started in the majors around the age of 19 – you see a bunch more guys who flamed out early. I made this point in response to a number of commenters seeming to assume that Felix would get better simply because he was getting older.
I’m not sure what part of my argument you’re disagreeing with, exactly, since my argument is simply that a pitcher with Felix’s history is a particularly risky investment in comparison to a guy like Braun who probably has not even peaked yet and does not have nearly the injury risk associated with him.
As I pointed out initially, a much more realistic comparison is Kazmir, whom the Rays just signed to a 3 year deal. That seems like a much more apt comparison, and a much better idea, than the Braun deal (or the Longoria deal or Pujols deal or whatever).
Clemens wasn’t established in the majors until he was 23. Very different.
And really – worst case, don’t tell her.
I don’t feel the need to enumerate my online purchases for my spouse.
I don’t feel the need to enumerate my online purchases for my spouse.
Yeah, my wife and I discuss anything over like $100 or so. It’s the honor system other than that.
Hey Jeff Nye,
Flix Hernandez had a Birthdayday, as many of us do every year, He’s now 22.
For U guys not dicussing everything with your wives I would suggest you do if you want them in the game. Just the opinion of a guy with the same woman for 41 years. Love them or leave them!!!
This has to be one of my favorite posts ever.
I dont even wan’t my wife to like baseball. or sports for that matter.
how else am I supposed to get away?
The accumulation of roto entry fees, MLB Extra Innings, golf, coaching the neighbor kids in the cage after work and the occasional pilgrimage to Safeco has driven my wife to the brink of sanity, or so she says. Do I complain about her pedicures, hair appointments, new clothes, nights out with the ladies and ever-growing surplus of peach oatmeal scrubs and sh^t? Hell no. I’m a firm believer in marital karma. Some day, the Mariners will make it to the World Series, and when they do, I will throw my stockpile of marital karma in her oatmeal-scrubbed face and see all 7 games in person . . . assuming I am still alive by then.