I refuse to do further research into this topic
at least until we have a larger sample to work with
I read the Times blog entry about the “startling” difference between Bedard’s Johjima and Burke starts, which uses some bad stats and… anyway, ends
Now, that note should also include the caveat that the starts with Johjima were earlier in the season. Bedard is known to start seasons slowly and he was also having trouble with his hip earlier. Still, the disparity is pretty striking.
Okay, so given W-L, ERA, K, and BB, but no innings pitched or other relevant information, we should apparently assume Johjima sucks. So I started writing a post where I sliced Bedard’s starts in increasingly thin slices, starting with
Let’s make some equally random comparisons
Wilkerson in RF: 6.1 BB/9 IP, 7.1 K/9 IP, 1.5 HR/9 IP
Wlad in RF: 2.7 BB/9 IP, 8.6 K/9 IP, 1.5 HR/9 IP
Now of course, Wilkerson was in right field early in the season, when Bedard was injured and whatnot… but it’s hard not to believe that Wlad helps Wilkerson walk fewer batters and strike out more.
And getting around to some hysterics about how who plays first base determines the outcome of Bedard’s starts. It was kind of silly, your standard reductio ad absurdum kind of thing.
The problem with doing any of this right now is that Bedard’s May 12th, 2-inning disaster start was caught by Johjima, and Bedard struck out 2, walked four, and gave up two home runs there. Any rate-based comparison makes Johjima look absurdly bad, while I don’t think there’s any way we can blame Johjima for that start (64 pitches thrown, 31 strikes).
If you tag him for that, Burke looks like a catching master in comparison. If you don’t, you’re kind of excusing that performance. The thing is, you simply can’t make any kind of reasonable decision on this season’s relative catching performances based on this small of a sample size.
And to come back around — in this context, where Burke’s starting over Johjima so this would seem to be intended as some kind of explanation of why Burke is “fast becoming” Bedard’s personal catcher, and particularly since Washburn offered his catcher up for sacrifice only days before, the right thing to do here is either make this a story — go get a quote from McLaren as to why, note that Burke starts more often on Saturdays, and so on — or don’t offer a little more information (relative games, innings pitched, and so on) to make it possibly meaningful and leave it at that.
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Even if the ‘catcher effect’ is non-existant or minimal; this is still a weak straw man. The fact remains that pitcher and catcher do indeed work together, on different approaches to pitch selection. The catchers in some regard set the rhythm of the game. So it’s not unreasonable to expect that some pitchers and catchers work better together than others.
If there is some truth to this phenomenon, will this effect Bedard’s decision to sign a new contract with Seattle? (Because of Johjima’s new three year contract?)
Wilkerson = Bedard?
The weaselyness continues. So, from this blog entry and the comments from Washburn, are we to believe that all Mariner problems stem from Kenji? I hope this whole line of whining goes away quickly.
Almost from day one, it has seemed like a lot of people wanted to make an issue of Johjima’s pitch calling. It has looked very much as though people were convinced it was going to be a problem, and have gone out of their way to find a problem. Did latino catchers go through this when they were first establishing themselves?
The thing that makes me crazy, apart from the fact that any of our starters can call their own game so how much fault can Johjima have here, is that there’s a big reason for Mariner pitchers struggling that the major media won’t acknowledge or discuss: our defense is awful. And the huge elephant in the room is that Ibanez is one of the very worst defenders in the league, but no one wants to criticize the supposed face of the franchise. So Johjima gets scapegoated instead.
Last year Dave did a fantastic post about how much better Felix is when he mixes his curve and change-up in with his fastball, and how his bad stretches are instances of too many fastballs in a row. Who was calling all those fastballs? The catcher has to have a much bigeer impact on a pitcher’s performance than any other player because he calls the pitches. Maybe Felix, being young, is less likely to shake off the called pitch than a veteran.
I seem to recall you mentioning some research that says catchers don’t matter. Maybe you could point me to it or tell me how to find it. I will look at it with interest. But even if it doesn’t, pitcher’s certainly think it does.
Not being a pitcher or a catcher, it’s hard for me to discern the real effect of the battery combination on the pitcher’s performance and statistics.
But, I look at where the dollars are spent. Big money goes to pitchers, but teams cycle through catchers all the time. If a pitcher’s performance was significantly affected by the catcher, teams would *also* spend significant dollars on those catchers who “call a good game” in order to capitalize on the big investment in their pitchers. But they don’t, they just keep finding a new catcher every now and then.
My conclusion: any effect of a catcher on a pitcher’s performance is apparently insubstantial to warrant investment in catchers to counteract the effects.
Specific to Bedard, the Times blog entry has jumped the shark (sorry, gun). Sample size too small, Bedard was injured, half the home games were played in 40-degree weather, etc. Finding causality among the information available is really suspect at this point.
Yes, we need a bigger sample size to gauge the “catcher effect.” However, it’s obvious Bedard would rather pitch to Burke. Why is that? Let’s get beyond the stats for a second and find out out why two (at least) of our starters don’t like pitching to Johjima. The M’s last week called up Hanson to get the pitchers and catchers “on the same page.” There’s definitely a problem here, and I’m curious what it is exactly.
I have a theory, but then, I’ve never played baseball, don’t personally know any of the people in question, and am generally a surly misantrope. So… I’ll keep it to myself.
Vidro played first base in that awful Bedard start in Texas. Perhaps the M’s should just avoid that in the future? Maybe that was the problem, and not the catcher? There’s as much actual evidence (as opposed to theorizing, however “reasonable” it may sound) for either contention.
I can only go off my observations on this. Bedard looked very sharp in his start against Oakland, the Yankees, and last night. He was in a rhythm and really dealing. In his start against Texas he looked irritated and was lacking that “in the zone” body language. Even after he made mistakes in the above three games he still looked like he was unrattled. Not the case in Texas.
Johjima doesn’t suck. But the fact remains some pitchers work better with other catchers. You can dig up any stats in the world to try to convince others of your point but it’s obvious to anyone watching the game that Bedard wasn’t comfortable with Johjima behind the plate.
During the 2nd inning of that start Joh went out to the mound and Bedard was visibly upset. The tiniest things can throw off a pitcher and catchers rhythm. Stats paint a large picture often of how a story goes. But this one is obvious to an observer of the game.
it has been interesting, as the Times (according to Baker) has him taking time off at home, so he isn’t working full weeks as it were, which has led to non-baseball guys like Condotta and O’Neil covering the games & the blog; I wonder if they are taking their lead from Baker as they are not around the team as much.
The pitches and gameplan on how to attack hitters is usually predetermined in meetings with the pitchers and catchers. It is hard to imagine that catchers throw pitchers off by making surprising or baffling pitch calls. Joh doesn’t deviate from the game plan.
Pitchers work with a multitude of catchers throughout their careers, and, over the long haul, the catchers make no difference. Good pitchers are good, bad pitchers are bad, and mediocre pitchers are . . . you get the point.
It also seemed taht Bedard’s velocity looked improved from previous starts. Neither Burke nor Joh could have any effect on this.
Has anything good ever followed these words?
Clearly the issue of pitcher-catcher communication is an unquantifiable aspect of baseball, but to clearly rule something out without evidence to the contrary is lazy. I have a hard time believing that a pitcher will perform substantially worse for a catcher that he isn’t buddies with. I would be interested to see a large study on pitchers who change catchers and if there is a noteworthy change in performance.
During the awful Texas start, someone mentioned an observer familiar with Bedard from his O’s days seemed to think he wasn’t getting as much hip rotation. I didn’t go back and look at tape from last year, but he definitely looked to be getting more rotation last night than he did on May 12th. That’s huge for velocity and consistency. And we know he was coming off a hip injury, so…
You know, for all the jawing, there are studies out there:
On Bedard specifically, sure; but comparing the pitching staff’s stats over the past couple of seasons when Kenji was catching vs. Burke or even Torrealba shows a similar trend.
Bedard isn’t getting paid to be comfortable. He’s getting paid to get hitters out.
#17, Jon — Again, other factors come into play. Burke often catches day games after night games. Day games at Safeco, when the roof is open, are generally much more pitcher friendly. One would have to factor out effects such as this and then recalculate CERA before establishing whether or not there is a trend.
@ #19: Sure, but when even HoRam looked half decent (if I remember the stats right.. haven’t looked in a while) with someone other than Johjima behind the plate, it should be looked into. Next time I have some free time I may seperate out Burke’s day and night games and see what I come up with.
Even if there wasn’t any real tangible reason why a particular pitcher performed better throwing to a particular catcher, if the pitcher believed it to be true, that could make it so.
If the pitcher thought he performed better when wearing a lucky t-shirt or some lucky jewelry, that might impact performance, too. The mind is a powerful thing.
I’m thinking of Tim McCarver being the designated catcher for Steve Carlton for several seasons. I have no idea if there was a good reason for that other than Carlton preferred it.
Maybe it was just something like Joey Cora picking up a small pebble from in front of him before a pitch. He probably thought it helped him concentrate and made him a better fielder. Either that or he had a mild case of OCD.
Bedard isn’t getting paid to be comfortable. He’s getting paid to get hitters out.
I think we are seeing with the rising “popularity” of “stat-headedness” there is also a prediliction of the masses to treat the players like robots. The players are regular people.
Just ask yourself these questions:
Does the fact that your boss is an asshole or a saint affect your work performance? Are you as motivated to perform well based on your manager? Looking back at the “who gets the big bucks” argument earlier, private industry has clearly put the big bucks into management, effectively stating that quality managers have a greater effect on performance than quality labor does (without minimizing the importance of competent labor).
Does having incompentent, or highly qualified co-workers effect your performance? If you work in even the looses of team environments, I suspect the answer for a vast majority of us is ‘yes’.
It should be no different between a pitcher and catcher. If the pitcher is doubting the calls from the catcher, doesn’t like the rhythm of the game, doesn’t like the game plan that comes through the catcher, there is every reason to believe that that can effect performance.
Sorry guys, but this is absolutely absurd coversation. Sure pitcher might like some catcher more than other, but that much?
Calling pitches is a team strategy set way before the hitter steps to the box. Or do you think cathcer looks to the dugout after each pitch just to check what time is it?
The more of this I hear, the more it sounds like scapegoating. If the Mariners were winning, we wouldn’t be hearing it, and of all the reasons they’re losing, Johjima’s relationship with the pitchers can’t possibly be as important as team defense and the lack of hitting and the absurd levels of veteran entitlement and McLaren’s inability to manage a game.
Scapegoating always works like this. Things go bad, a little finger-pointing stars, and then it avalanches as the pent-up frustration gets focused on one target. And it’s usually an outsider.
Johjima is beginning o become the fall guy for this season. Is that really reasonable?
Especially since starting pitching has generally been the least of the team’s problems this year. The bullpen has been a bit of a problem, but it was a strength last year and, oh yeah, Johjima was catching those games too.
Johjima’s relationship with the pitchers can’t possibly be as important as team defense and the lack of hitting and the absurd levels of veteran entitlement and McLaren’s inability to manage a game.
Watching the M’s play (and Bedard, Washburn and Batista throw), it’s difficult to argue with that sentence. They’re not sucking because Johjima can’t call pitches, they’re sucking because their play is terrible.
Bzzzt. Thanks for playing.
Yes, there are factors like this that affect performance. We can tell, because we can MEASURE THE PERFORMANCE.
Saying stuff like “Bedard wasn’t sharp today because he couldn’t get comfortable with his catcher” is ANTI-KNOWLEDGE. It’s not just untrue; it’s blocking the view of the truth. It steps in and “explains” an event with reference to stuff that’s completely unknowable (Bedard’s mental state) without first trying to establish whether the event even took place or not.
If you want to make a serious study of the results of pitchers working with different catchers, go ahead. But do it the right way: make sure you’ve got enough data, make sure you’re accounting for other factors, and make sure you’re asking the question in the right way and looking for an answer in a place where it is possible for answers to be found.
Grabbing a tiny handful of numbers from somewhere — ah, it doesn’t matter from where, we just want a number here, so it looks like we’re doing science, right? — tells you nothing. It tells you WORSE than nothing, because it shuts down your mind and stops you looking for other possible explanations — including what is always the most likely explanation in cases like this: random chance.
Your “robot” example doesn’t apply. If I’ve had conflict with my boss, there’s no numerical way to adjudge my performance as a result. With Bedard there is. How’s he doing at getting hitters out? Leaving aside the sample-size problem, I didn’t even see that number there. You rarely do, with pitchers — what IS Bedard’s out percentage, anyways? [hint: 1-OBP].
This kind of baloney statistic really gets my goat, and it makes real statistical analysis look bad.
I’m lost. Where is the strawman?
Why? Is that all you want to go on?
Ah… the old “Don’t confuse me with your fancy facts” argument makes an appearance. Also know as “Hey, you got your reality in my peanut butter!”
Which would take you right back to stats. This would show up.
Sure… but do you think it DID make him a better fielder?
That’s nonsense. You think it can’t be quantified if a “regular person” gets a strikeout or a hit? Why does it dehumanize the subject to track their results?
So… you have decades of data, go show us. Or is it too small an effect to quantify?
The management stuff… no, not really. I’m at a level in my job that I there is not going to be a large gain or drop off in my performance based on management. Maybe when I was a pre-teen… or in jobs I had no interest in.
If the Mariners were winning, we wouldn’t be hearing it . . .
More precisely, when the team was winning last year we didn’t hear any of it. This is a bad team looking for reasons other than individual poor performance to blame bad outings on. Bedard isn’t a knuckleballer for heaven’s sake. I saw him getting hosed on close calls early in last night’s game with Burke behind the plate, just as he did when Kenji was there. Could Burke be better at framing close pitches or blocking balls in the dirt? Maybe, but it doesn’t account for why Washburn sucks or why Bedard was toast so early in his previous start. The bottom line is that if Kenji could cause the kinds of outcomes he’s being blamed for he’d never have made it to the major leagues.
Also, and perhaps more to the point, if this logic holds why aren’t we giving Kenji mad props for incredible starts like Felix’s April 11, 2007 domination of the Red Sox? He was behind the dish. Why is this a one-way street?
Bedard’s gonna look bad some nights. Every pitcher does. It’s stupid to blame the catcher.
Man oh man some of you are making a huge deal out of this. I watched the game against Texas like just about every other M’s game this season. I don’t know the reason, if there even was one, but it didn’t look like Bedard was pleased with Johjima that game. Based solely on Bedard’s body language during that game. Yea, he is paid to throw strikes, which he didn’t that game for whatever reason. I am just pointing out that Bedard LOOKED more comfortable the last 3 starts with Burke and didn’t LOOK comfortable in Texas with Joh.
And again: who cares if Bedard is comfortable? It’s not interesting. Getting hitters out is interesting.
Johjima was probably a reporter for his High School newspaper, so Bedard doesn’t like to talk to him.
I’m lost. Where is the strawman?
Gee, I don’t know.
Theory: Catchers can effect the performance of pitchers.
Straw Man: Right fielders effect pitcher performance. But we all know this is ridiculous, so the related theory that the catcher effects performance must also be ridiculous!
It’s the definition of straw man.
Yes, there are factors like this that affect performance. We can tell, because we can MEASURE THE PERFORMANCE
You’re making the critical assumption that we can indeed measure performance accurately. It’s only true if we can measure (and have knowledge of) all the input variables, which we don’t. We have a set of measuresments that are generally agreed upon, but they are not the start and end of what happens on the baseball diamond.
As it is – if we can’t measure defense, then how well can we measure hitting, and if we can’t measure hitting (beyond the ‘three true outcomes’) how can we measure pitching? If a guy like Ibanez is indeed turning singles into doubles and line drives into hits, why aren’t we adjusting hitting stats based on the defenses players are facing?
There’s still tons of room in the sabrmetric models for what we currently deem “intangibles”. There’s more in the game than the numbers we have now.
I just wanted to clarify that the problem that I see is a personal/professional problem, not a performance problem. Whatever is going on has nothing to do with Kenji’s ability or professionalism.
I also fall on the side that, without concrete statistical analysis of the situation, it is far more likely that Bedard and Washburn are having bad days and careers (respectively).
Oh, the statistical analysis, wherefore art thou? Oh, wait, there you are. What? There is no statistical evidence for a large game-calling ability? Below the threshold of detection? Oh… I get it now.
That’s not a a strawman argument at all.
Strawman is setting someone up with an argument they’re not making for easy refutation.
“Some of you argue that Kenji tells batters what pitches are coming. I disagree.”
Here, I’m pointing out that the evidence that Johjima sucks compared to Burke is so thin you can make equal or better arguments about the effect of the right fielder or first baseman using the same methods.
And then you say “well, that’s ridiculous” — use of the original argument’s tenets led to a ridiculous conclusion…
ta da!
No, it isn’t. At all. It’s better to stay away from snide comments like “Gee, I don’t know.” when you really don’t.
Maybe you meant to say reductio ad absurdum? It doesn’t really apply, but it is the only thing that comes close to what you’re trying to say.
A strawman is attributing an argument to an opponent that they didn’t make. Where did that happen.
Come on. We’re not talking about measuring intangibles, we’re talking about quantifying results. That is a poor retreat.
I love when people like DMZ, who rely solely on statistics when they want to support an opinion or when they’re looking for one, forget the most important part of the game because they’ve never played baseball at a highly competitive level: Instinct and game experience. A pitcher must have 100 percent confidence in his catcher. Period. Wash’s public calling out of Joh? Bush league, without a doubt. But also honest. The fact that Burke’s been exclusively catching Bedard is all the quote you need from McLaren, who won’t give one anyway that’s truthful to the media. And he shouldn’t. Clue in DMZ. Good article in the Times blog. Stats have never been able to measure the true worth of a player who has a good ‘feel for the game’. And they never will.
Are the media scapegoating Joh? You betcha. That said, I’m almost inclined to encourage them in it. Why? Because a 3-year $24 million contract for a catcher on the wrong side of 30 is a bad, bad, bad idea. And if the media clamoring for Joh’s head results in the M’s somehow fixing that mistake, then… well, it still sucks, because a) it’d suck to screw Joh for reasons he has no control over, and b) the organization wouldn’t be making the move for remotely the right reasons. But… I dunno… it’d sure be nice to be out from under that contract. I just wish it’d be for the right reasons.
it’d sure be nice to be out from under that contract. I just wish it’d be for the right reasons.
Yeah, that I can agree with. But there are right reasons, and there wrong reasons — and some of those are very, very wrong. The trouble with so many of these arguments is that they seem to skate awfully close to other, darker things. Sure, English is not Johjima’s first language; but it’s not Felix’s or Silva’s or even Bedard’s, either. And it didn’t seem to be a problem last year. I’m not going to accuse anyone here of this, because there’s no evidence of it (and USSM tends to self-select away the ignorant and bigoted), but I worry that once blood is in the water around Johjima some people coming in to take their bites are doing so because he’s Japanese or, more precisely, not caucasian.
Like me, orrrr me?
Because I have to say that if your evaluation of me is that I rely solely on stats to “support an opinion or when (I’m) looking for one”, I don’t think you’ve read enough of my writing, and you’re basing that belief on a pretty limited picture.
37-Two things here. First,
I love when people like DMZ, who rely solely on statistics when they want to support an opinion or when they’re looking for one,
Statistics are a hell of a lot more objective than trying to “support” a preconceived notion with pseudopsychological nonsense. Secondly,
Stats have never been able to measure the true worth of a player who has a good ‘feel for the game’. And they never will.
I know a lot of previous posters have already pointed out the following, but… winning baseball games is about scoring runs and preventing the opposition from scoring runs. If something doesn’t measurably impact run scoring/prevention, then it has no impact on wins or losses. Being comfortable on the mound doesn’t affect run prevention, and neither will prancing around like Manny Ramirez after hitting a home run affect run scoring. There’s simply no good reason to use Johjima’s rapport (or lack therof) with the starters to explain the starters’ poor performances. In the case of Washburn, it’s much more parsimonious to simply say that Washburn sucks. I mean, should we blame Joh for HoRam’s crappiness last year? That’s absurd. Similarly, in the case of Bedard, even good pitchers have bad outings, so why make an overly elaborate judgment based on a handful of starts?
Actually, I think it’s more accurate to say “Quit wasting your time on that and start worrying about things that DO have measurable impacts on run scoring and prevention.”
But there are right reasons, and there wrong reasons — and some of those are very, very wrong.
Yep. That (and the rest of your post) says it more succinctly than I could have. Especially this:
I worry that once blood is in the water around Johjima some people coming in to take their bites are doing so because he’s Japanese or, more precisely, not caucasian.
So now we find ourselves, because some things are more important than baseball, in the position of defending a player with a bad contract. Ugh.
Joe Morgan? Is that you?
42- Ah yes… I should have said “It has no impact that we should care about on wins/losses.”
As an A’s fan, I endured a couple of seasons of “Hey, Jason Kendall’s sub-.600 OPS is just fine, cuz HE’S the reason our pitchers are teh awesome!!” from other fans.
Kendall is now with Milwaukee who, last I checked, had the third worst ERA (sorry, Dave) in the NL.
Did he forget how to call a good game or was his (and any catcher’s) impact on a pitching staff just overblown hooey?
‘Like you’, DMZ, like you….
But fair enough point on ‘not reading enough of your writing’ — I’ll keep reading — I think this is an amazing website/forum. But the Times blog had a sage observation, your #1 being caught exclusively by the back-up catcher in combination with Wash’s (bush-league) call out of the starting cather is a fairly big deal — especially given Joh’s questionable game-calling abilities in previous seasons. But hey, we’ll see if Joh’s doing less catching and more DHing soon enough… and c’mon Benne, the ‘Joe Morgan’ line was cliche the first time it was ‘spoken’. Gotta come up with a better chip than that one….
It really isn’t a huge deal even if there’s now a perma-Burke/Bedard battery. Many, many teams have had their #1 caught by the backup, for a couple of reasons but particularly the ace = lower run scoring, making it easier to use the usually lighter-hitting backup without affecting the game. Makes it a great time to rest the starter.
Maddux in Atlanta is probably the best example of this. Look at 1995, too — Javy Lopez caught him in the playoffs, with fine results.
especially given Joh’s questionable game-calling abilities in previous seasons
I don’t get this. I keep hearing people speak of this but I havn’t heard ‘why’ yet. Someone care to enlighten me?
Curses, Benne beat me to the only reasonable response to Hunterrich.
I love when people like DMZ, who rely solely on statistics when they want to support an opinion or when they’re looking for one, forget the most important part of the game because they’ve never played baseball at a highly competitive level
No offense, dude but your softball beer league doesn’t count.
And how do you know if Derek or Dave havn’t played ‘highly competitive’ baseball? You do realize the the ability to think critically and understand new concepts doesn’t disappear when you put a jock on, right? I know it certainly seems that way, but it’s not, trust me.
Joe Morgan? Is that you?
Speaking of the man, he managed a classic in the Sunday night all-NY game. “When you look down on a ball you only see the top of it, so it looks smaller, and that’s why a sinkerball is harder to hit.”
Apparently he is unaware the ball is sphere and thus not subject to foreshortening.
In the short period that I actively read the Mariners official message board, I saw way too much of this stuff. People claiming that they knew more about baseball than everyone else because they played it professionally, yet not one of them ever backed up the claim.
On another message board I frequent, we had a guy who came around and expected everyone to believe what he had to say about X topic, because he was a subject matter expert. It turns out that he was a disbarred lawyer with a personality disorder and a few restraining orders. He was, however, a SME on being a… jerk.
Maybe it’s because I’m new to [this site which is totally not a board], but this is the first I’ve heard of Joh’s “questionable game calling” in previous years. Please enlighten me.