Hey, Look At That

Dave · May 20, 2008 at 5:47 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

The spirit of Regression To The Mean decided to inhabit an overweight Venezuelan!

Comments

39 Responses to “Hey, Look At That”

  1. coasty141 on May 20th, 2008 6:56 pm

    As much as the Tigers have struggled… I’d bet on them every day and twice on Sunday with Silva on the hill.

  2. HamNasty on May 20th, 2008 7:04 pm

    Do stupid contracts ever regress to the mean, any chance Silva’s deal loses about 2 years and 30 million dollars? I think they should if they don’t…

  3. Lefebvre Belebvre on May 20th, 2008 7:20 pm

    Weak knee jerk reaction strand, Dave!

    Of all the crappy things going on with this team you’re going to rip the one starter that has given us 8 decent starts out of 10? I thought this was the commen sense blog?

  4. thr33niL on May 20th, 2008 7:21 pm

    [Sims]

  5. CC03 on May 20th, 2008 7:24 pm

    “Didn’t change speeds well” according to McLaren. Felix does the same thing.

  6. Lefebvre Belebvre on May 20th, 2008 7:26 pm

    Sorry. I over reacted. The weight of this lost season has finally made me snap.

    I had one last irrational drop of blood that thought/hoped/wished the M’s would make one last valiant push to get back in the race. I now know that’s what the Tigers will do.

    I’ve hit rock bottom in my dispair. I have no more for this this franchise as is and now know we will be bottom feeders for the next several years. There are no free agents to acquire next year that can help put this shell of a team back together.

    Hopefully when my newborn son is old enough for me to take him to games and teach him the game 5-6 years from now) the Mariners will have finally righted this ship.

  7. Steve T on May 20th, 2008 7:38 pm

    That depends, what’s Chuck Armstrong’s life expectancy? He’s got to be what, 64? Can we hope for mandatory retirement next year? What about Howard Lincoln? He’s 68. Have some pretzels, Howie. Here, have another bowl of ice cream.

  8. docmarsh on May 20th, 2008 7:41 pm

    Don’t tell me that anyone watched this game after the bottom of the 4th…watched my son play MarioKart…was way more exciting…

  9. King on May 20th, 2008 7:44 pm

    6 – I agree with your initial post. Silva hasn’t been the problem. In fact, he has given us more quality starts then expected. He has had a few bad days, but doesn’t he lead the team in quality starts? If he doesn’t lead the team than he has to be close. Don’t pick on Silva just because you predicted him to flop.

  10. HamNasty on May 20th, 2008 7:50 pm

    Silva isn’t the problem with these 40 some games.
    However, Silva is what is wrong with the organization overall. Big contract for poorly evaluated talent. Same with Washburn, Sexson, and Vidro. Contracts for players like him is exactly why we are not competing.

  11. thefin190 on May 20th, 2008 7:50 pm

    I was figuring the Tiger’s pitching would be cured by the Mariner’s offense, but I wasn’t expecting it’s offense to be cured by Mariners pitching too. I know Silva isn’t that good, but I was expecting this offensive burst to come when either Washburn or Batista were pitching.

  12. Steve T on May 20th, 2008 7:54 pm

    Silva has been decidedly mediocre, worse than expected. Worst pitcher in the world? No, of course not. But that ERA is pretty hideous for Safeco. Walking more, striking out fewer. If your expectation was realistic, no, he hasn’t been a massive disappointment, but if you were buying into the cheerleading when he was signed, you should be appalled.

  13. HamNasty on May 20th, 2008 7:56 pm

    thefin190- I expected their hitting to be cured, that line up is waiting to bust out and they couldn’t pick three better guys. Assuming they get Wash and Batista.

  14. Sklyansky on May 20th, 2008 8:01 pm

    Its depressing to see that over $40 million of payroll goes to Washburn, Silva, Sexson, Vidro and Cairo. Most teams could get similar production (maybe even better), with just $4 million.

    Why wasn’t M’s management this liberal with the checkbook when Piniella was around?

  15. gwangung on May 20th, 2008 8:28 pm

    Why wasn’t M’s management this liberal with the checkbook when Piniella was around?

    They weren’t winning.

    And it’s a desperate flailing around to get back to winning that results in these contracts to mediocre talents. This management is simply too stupid and too stubborn to look beyond the surface to find high quality talent.

  16. coughuskydad on May 20th, 2008 8:30 pm

    Silva was supposedly the second best pitcher available in free agency last winter. If the M’s had not signed him everybody would be bitching about lack of effort on Bavasi’s part. He’s not doing too bad considering some of the past ones that got away. Zito is doing what?

  17. edgar for mayor on May 20th, 2008 8:44 pm

    Don’t just blaem Silva…blame Baek (the worthless roster piece) as well.

    Anyway, if the Bullpen hadn’t just given up then we might have actually wo that games. Silva 7 runs, Mariners 8. Baek is more to blame here than Silva. Garbage!

  18. disturb189 on May 20th, 2008 8:47 pm

    7- Maybe we could encourage Lincoln to go back to Nintendo. They are doing great there now and that is where Howard’s strengths lie anyway. There was no reason to have a lawyer/videogame company executive come in to run the team to begin with.

  19. scraps on May 20th, 2008 8:57 pm

    Wait a minute. There are people who think Silva has been living up to his contract? Can you explain this?

    If you think Dave’s little post is “ripping” Silva, you are seriously oversensitive.

  20. eponymous coward on May 20th, 2008 9:03 pm

    Carlos Silva is a mediocre pitcher without a lot of stuff who will throw innings and need help from his defense, which means he fits right in with Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista, and he didn’t magically reinvent himself into a good pitcher this offseason with a new pitch OR a large multiyear contract. He is what he is, and water seeks its own level.

  21. CaptainPoopy on May 20th, 2008 9:03 pm

    16 –

    I hope you’re kidding. Silva can give up 7, but bullpen can’t? Sure it’s the BP’s job to stop the bleeding, but it’s also Silva’s job to keep the game close.

  22. Hoover on May 20th, 2008 9:04 pm

    Our “Big Buffalo” (the new nickname reported on All Access) probably feels a bit like this fellow tonight.

  23. tomas on May 20th, 2008 9:04 pm

    With the M’s, regression to the mean, given our FO, means we have entered the realm of idiots

  24. scraps on May 20th, 2008 9:09 pm

    Baek is more to blame here than Silva.

    There is no rational way — none — to maintain that the pitcher who gave up seven runs in four innings isn’t the one responsible for the loss. The Mariners scored four runs in the ninth, when the Tigers had an eight-run cushion. You seriously want to argue that the four runs that Baek gave up after Silva imploded are the main reason the Mariners lost? Of course, your opinions of Baek and Silva entering the game have nothing to do with your, um, analysis. Right?

    I don’t suppose this is going to help, but:

    WPA for game (from Fangraphs):

    Baek: -.014
    Silva: -.343

  25. Karen on May 20th, 2008 9:13 pm

    tomas said: With the M’s, regression to the mean, given our FO, means we have entered the realm of idiots

    Entered? We (ahem, they, the Mariners FO) are kings of that realm, crowned in the last millennia.

  26. scraps on May 20th, 2008 9:23 pm

    8 decent starts out of 10

    I’m not sure what you mean by “decent”. He has six starts out of ten with a positive WPA.

    He has had a few bad days, but doesn’t he lead the team in quality starts? If he doesn’t lead the team than he has to be close. Don’t pick on Silva just because you predicted him to flop.

    Comments with mind-reading like your last sentence beg to be not taken seriously. A person might as well respond to you, “Don’t rush to defend him just because you thought he’d be good / have a chip on your shoulder about people who disagree with you / suffer from niacin deficiency clouding your capacity for reasoned discourse.” You see? Once you start talking about other people’s motives, you’re one step away from bopping each other with pig bladders.

    In any case, I hope you’re not referring to the MLB joke statistic Quality Starts.

  27. Tom on May 20th, 2008 9:27 pm

    God, I’m sorry, but excuse me while I go into a deep depression.

    This team makes me want to cry. This isn’t the kind of team I grew up with.

    Where is the passion, accountability, and smarts from the players, fans, coaches, and managment?
    It seems like it’s nowhere to be found right now and won’t be back for a long time.

  28. jspektor on May 20th, 2008 9:53 pm

    well at least Geoff took a nice picture of the post game on field celebration … thanks for that.

  29. jguier on May 20th, 2008 10:17 pm

    No more excuses McLaren–the team sucks. Sexson is hitting at the Mendoza line? Give me a break. Hire some people who know how to evaluate baseball talent and put a winner on the field. Batista stinks–Washburn stinks, most of the team stinks. Enough of the pathetic apologies already–how about a team that can win some games?

  30. Gihyou on May 20th, 2008 10:56 pm

    I can’t wait for Washburn to regress to the mean!

    ….Oh, wait.

  31. jlc on May 20th, 2008 11:37 pm

    Thank God I have a meeting every Tuesday night, so I get to miss the games. I wish I could just turn off the TV the other nights, but I can’t.

    Can’t we get some of that regression to the mean of a mediocre ball club? I’d love for the M’s to be a mediocre team. It would be at least three steps up.

  32. John in L.A. on May 20th, 2008 11:42 pm

    Maybe we could encourage Lincoln to go back to Nintendo. They are doing great there now and that is where Howard’s strengths lie anyway.

    I must insist that you keep that dude away from my beloved Wii. I’m halfway through unlocking everything in Mario Cart and I’m picking up Wii Fit in ten hours. Send him to the gameboy or something. I don’t own one of those.

    Baek is more to blame here than Silva. Garbage!

    That’s some crazy logic there.

    Do stupid contracts ever regress to the mean, any chance Silva’s deal loses about 2 years and 30 million dollars? I think they should if they don’t…

    I like that.

  33. JMHawkins on May 21st, 2008 12:22 am

    Do stupid contracts ever regress to the mean, any chance Silva’s deal loses about 2 years and 30 million dollars? I think they should if they don’t…

    Only in the NFL…

  34. josh_h on May 21st, 2008 12:29 am

    16 -

    You don’t overpay for mediocre talent just because you have a need. The M’s could have easily picked up a cheaper player to fill the need at SP, but they didn’t And it was a terrible move.

    As it’s been stated before here… you overpay your supertars – not your filler.

  35. Ollie in Raleigh on May 21st, 2008 4:35 am

    “Overweight Venenzuelan” That seems a bit DMZ-browed.

    If the problem is the contract blame the guy who made the offer, not the one who accepted it.

  36. Evan on May 21st, 2008 7:25 am

    There is no rational way — none — to maintain that the pitcher who gave up seven runs in four innings isn’t the one responsible for the loss. The Mariners scored four runs in the ninth, when the Tigers had an eight-run cushion. You seriously want to argue that the four runs that Baek gave up after Silva imploded are the main reason the Mariners lost? Of course, your opinions of Baek and Silva entering the game have nothing to do with your, um, analysis. Right?

    I don’t suppose this is going to help, but:

    WPA for game (from Fangraphs):

    Baek: -.014
    Silva: -.343

    The only way I could possibly pin this one on Baek is by insisting that it matters that it was him who gave up the game-winning RBI.

    But only a crazy person would do that.

  37. Jeff Nye on May 21st, 2008 8:09 am

    I gave up on this game pretty quickly and went to play Age of Conan!

    I am such a child.

  38. north on May 21st, 2008 9:25 am

    This is a great and very succinct post.

    Maybe some didn’t get it, but small sample size is so hard to explain.

  39. galaxieboi on May 21st, 2008 9:48 am

    I got home from work only after the game had gotten well out of hand. Of course, I proceeded to watch the rest of the game in it’s entirety. The bright spot is a new southern BBQ place opened up down the street and we had dinner there. Mmmmm…sweet tea and corn bread. That helped dull the pain.

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