The 2009 Core
After this series, I’d imagine that even the staunchest holdouts agree that this season is over. The Mariners would have to play .657 baseball, going 75-39, the rest of the way to have any realistic chance of winning this division. This team is just not capable of playing that well. They’ll be lucky to get to .500, honestly. The 2008 season is up in flames.
So, now, the question is no longer what the team should do to try to improve this year’s team. This year’s team is irrelevant. The 2009 team is now the one the organization needs to be building (and for the sake of this discussion, we’re ignoring the fact that the entire front office might get fired) – the nice thing about a losing season is that you get a head start on your competitors for the following year. With the resources and the talent on hand, this team can be a winner in 2009 if they make the right moves. We’re not looking at a long rebuilding project, where they should trade everyone and start over. They just need to import some talent, make some good moves, and build a team around the foundation that’s already here. It can be done, but first, they need to identify the core that they’re going to build around.
Here’s my take on who those guys should be considered part of that core.
Felix Hernandez, Starting Pitcher: He’s the franchise. Don’t trade him ever.
Ichiro, Center Field: If Felix is 1A, he’s 1B. Same deal – he retires here.
Erik Bedard, Starting Pitcher: The trade sucked, but he’s here and still good. Keep him.
Adrian Beltre, Third Base: Underrated, not really replaceable. Keep him.
And that’s the core. Everyone else is liable to be replaced by someone better depending on what you find available. There are other valuable players in the organization (Putz, Betancourt, Lopez, Clement to name four), but they’re not guaranteed jobs here. If someone wants to give you something for them that makes this team better, they go in a heartbeat. They’re all replaceable.
Now, the problem this presents is that if you’ve decided that your core is a center fielder, a third baseman, and two starting pitchers, you’ve got a massive amount of work to do to fill 21 spots around them before 2009 rolls around. Some of those will be filled internally, certainly, but you’re still looking at a pretty significant roster turnover. Where do you start with such a large job?
Well, to begin with, you figure out who isn’t part of your core and could have some value to a team trying to contend right now, and you figure out whether it’s worth it to trade them for 2009 help. This list is pretty short, unfortunately, since there are so many lousy players on the roster. Essentially, you’re looking at Raul Ibanez and J.J. Putz here. Both would bring in a decent return in trade as quality veterans with terrific contracts, but that return has to be weighted against the cost of subtracting them from the 2009 roster.
If Ibanez is willing to DH next year and be platooned against lefties, and he’ll re-sign for a reasonable amount of money, then he might be worth keeping around. If he’s not, then you have to weigh whether the players being offered are more valuable than the potential draft picks you’d get from letting him walk via free agency. Since this team is building for 2009, though, it’s likely that they’d be able to get some more immediate help in exchange for Ibanez, who has the reputation to fool someone into overpaying to get him for the stretch run.
Putz is a tougher call. When he’s healthy, he’s still one of the best closers alive, and he’s signed to a bargain contract through 2010. If the M’s are going to contend next year, they should be making their bullpen better, not worse. However, relievers have notoriously short shelf lives, and you can build a good bullpen very quickly. Trading Putz now and rebuilding the bullpen this winter could be a good strategy if you can get an everyday player that could fill a position on the 2009 team.
Once you’ve figured out what you’re doing with those two, you then need to answer the Jeff Clement question. Now that Johjima’s been re-signed through 2011, Clement isn’t a catcher in this organization anymore. He’s a good hitting prospect, but as a 1B/DH, he’s no longer a potential all-star, and he would have more value to a club that would stick him behind the plate everyday. Regardless of whether we agree with the Johjima deal or not, it happened, and it’s not going away, so Clement’s value to this organization might be highest as trade bait. If you could turn him into a similarly talented first baseman and get an additional player to boot, that’s a trade they should look at making. Call the Reds and ask them what they’ll give you with Joey Votto for Clement – if you like the second player, make the deal.
That’s where you start, but it’s certainly not where you finish. It’s a big job, but the sooner this organization gets started on a plan for 2009, the better.
Yes, we know, no one reading this wants this administration making the decisions on who will be here next year and who won’t. Put that aside and allow us to have a discussion that doesn’t center around your desire to see Bavasi fired. Thanks.
I really like the Clement/Votto idea, makes a ton of sense. Votto has left handed pop and is a young guy with big upside who is already producing at the ML level. First base is obviously a need position next year.
One thought I had on Bedard is trading him to the ?Yankees for Cano…maybe throwing in Lopez, seeing if they would take Washburn and trying to get back a Phil Hughes or a good pitching prospect. I just love what Cano brings in terms of 20 HR, 100 RBI, .300 plus and lefty power at 2B.
My take on Bedard is we need to see if he will sign a long term deal. If he will, sign him most definitely but if not, I think you have to consider moving him this year when his value is still high. The Yankees need to make a splash and Bedard would be ideal for their ballpark and needs for another ace to go with Wang.
Great post…just some more thoughts.
I know that we have all three fifth starters signed for next year (and beyond), but shouldn’t we also be looking to acquire some starting pitchin gto go with new position players?
Methinks this will inspire a disgusting level of rosterbation…
One thing we might hope for is for Washburn and/or Batista to recover some degree of effectiveness, enough that we might convince some desperate contender to trade for them.
[deleted, accuses Beltre of steroid use, overall stupidity]
If this is something they’re going to do, I’d really like to see them be smart and take advantage of how undervalued defense is in the majority of MLB.
Really take the time to build a good defense. You’ve already got Ichiro and Beltre, two of the best defensive players in the game; go out and get yourself the rest of a seriously excellent defense (particularly a good infield defense), then put mediocre pitchers that you can get relatively cheaply in front of them.
One, this will get you better overall run prevention (especially in Safeco) and these mediocre pitchers who suddenly look better than they are can be flipped for better talent once you fool the rest of the league into thinking they’ve suddenly become awesome.
Once you’ve done that (really, all you’d need to do is get an all-glove no-stick SS like Adam Everett, and maybe see if you can get a better defender than Jose Lopez who still offers some offense, but that’s not that important), get some corner outfielders who give you decent offense while playing decent defense (meaning, better than Ibanez; not that hard to find), stick Ibanez at DH, get a good 1B (I like the Votto suggestion, but I’m sure there’s other ideas out there too) and you’re done.
Also:
Who?
Clement for Votto makes sense until you realize that the Reds don’t really have anyone legitimate to take Votto’s place at first and Votto is already hitting fairly well at the big league level. If I were the Reds, I probably wouldn’t deal him for Jeff Clement straight up, much less if I had to throw someone else in.
Clement for Matt LaPorta makes some sense to me, as the Brewers have no real position to try to fit LaPorta in. If they really honestly want him to move to right field, then having he, Corey Hart in center and Ryan Braun in left would be one eyesore of an outfield to watch play (even though I know Braun is adjusting well to left).
I also wouldn’t mind trading Putz for LaPorta, though, just for the record.
Dave, love the post — the first positive thing I’ve associated with the M’s in a long while.
I don’t like the Clement deal for one reason: Johjima. Catchers are also in that commodity of players that take precipitous dives in performance after age catches up with them. I believe that’s going to happen with Johjima before his three years are up. If Clement is a good defensive catcher and can call a good game, I think it’s in our best interest to keep him.
I once thought of JJ as untouchable, but he won’t be the same by the time we’re competitive again (I don’t think it will happen next year either.) Moving JJ at (or before) the trade deadline is a no-brainer because of what we should be able to fetch for him. Someone will be looking for a shutdown closer (Rays, maybe?) who will have plenty of up-and-comers in their organization to help fill one or more of the 21 roster slots.
I would love to keep Bedard, but we really need to either get him signed long-term, or deal him for a stack of talent. Dealing him would yield a boatload of players, so it would be hard to ignore it.
Raul – I think we get what we can and move on.
Beltre – love the guy, underrated defensively and his bat is sufficient. But, I entertain offers for him nonetheless.
And, it’s going out on a limb, but I listen to offers for Ichiro as well. Defensively solid, gifted hitter and great approach to the game. But, I would entertain offers for him only because of the bounty that you could get in return. The price would be high, but I would still evaluate offers.
6 – if you want to be defense centric keeping AB makes sense … but either you send Yuni / J.Lo into therapy b/c the mental errors are atrocious…
AB to me is not worth the money he is getting. I know the glove dazzles … but ..
Would the Cardinals give us Rasmus and Jaime Garcia for Putz and Raul?
#7 – LaPorta seems big time but I really think we need to build around left handed pop more than right handed pop. I think that is a huge problem with how this offense is constructed right now.
6 – Chone Figgins making 4.7
– Eric Chavez is making 11.5
– Garrett Atkins
Atkins hitting far better, making 4.5 million and fielding only .10 percent lower than AB…
[meta]
Just stop. You’re wrong, and you just tried to argue that Eric Chavez is better than Adrian Beltre. Stop.
And if you don’t want a post deleted, don’t accuse a player of steroid use. That’s been a rule here forever. You don’t have to like it, but you have to live by it.
14… read the rules. It’s in there.
That’s Chavez fielding pct.
That’s Beltre fielding pct.
Beltre BA / OPS
Chavez BA / OPS
I guess I’m a bit stauncher than the staunchest M’s fan or something like that. What about the whole deal where if you get a hundred people in a room flipping a penny a hundred times, one of them will flip heads 100 times in a row? Maybe the M’s have just flipped tails a bunch early in the season, and they’re due for some crazy long win streaks. It could happen. It’s a long shot, but I’m going to hold on to it.
Dave, I know you want this dialogue to avoid how much we hate Bavasi–that’s not what this question is about.
I want to know what the track record of front office changes in MLB has been–would ownership (ours or anyone else) make a change before the trade deadline or do they typically let them finish the year?
You just quoted fielding percentage. For the love of God, stop.
I hate to be terribly negative here – and I really do hate to – but I think 2009 is going to be tough to build for. I think it’s a bit more realistic to build for 2010.
In 2009 we still have loads of near-/replacement level talent on the roster with bloated contracts attached to them. Silva ($11M), Washburn ($10.35M), Batista ($9M), Johjima (~$8M) and presumably Vidro (~$8.5M). That’s a over forty-six million dollars in guys that really don’t fit the makeup of a rebuilding club.
Plus if you add “core” pitchers Felix and Erik in to the mix, that leaves no room for developing young starting pitching – one thing I would say is key for building to the future.
Plus, as you’ve mentioned, besides the untouchables only Ibanez, Clement and Putz carry much trade value. And realistically they don’t carry enough to make this a contending ballclub. I think Clement specifically is the kind of guy you’d want to trade for anyhow.
2010 looks a lot better when Washburn, Vidro and Batista come off the books and leave holes that can be filled with better talent. I’m looking forward to that.
It’s sad. This season has me so down, I can’t even say, “There’s always next season.”
Does contract status of Bedard and Beltre play any role here? Churchill is pretty adamant over at his site that Beltre isn’t going to re-sign here.
If that’s the case, the decision becomes trade package vs. comp. picks. Same goes with Bedard, plus the FO may not be willing to deal him for anything less than what they gave up last winter.
Do you want errors made?
Vidro’s option isn’t going to vest.
#21 – If the M’s allow Vidro’s vestiing option to kick in for next year, they are crazy. This season is lost, Vidro should be benched or DFA’d.
Dave, how sure of that are you? I mean about Vidro’s option… it seems that the M’s are going to allow that to happen.
Do you want errors made?
Are you serious? Because if you are, then you might want to do some reading about how to evaluate players and then get back to us. There’s a bunch of links up on your left.
I agree on Beltre and Bedard…we need to find out if they are going to sign extensions. If not, I think you have to consider moving them as the cost of losing each of them for nothing would really set this franchise back.
If Bedard won’t sign here, I still think a Cano/Bedard deal is something to explore…with other parts to that deal…
Morrow should be sent to AAA to work on being a starter for 2009.
There’s a better chance that jspektor goes to bed thinking I’m a wonderful person tonight than Jose Vidro’s option vesting. It’s not happening.
Haha… that made me laugh and feel very comfortable in the fact that Vidro’s option wont vest.
Solid ideas, but if Bedard won’t sign long term, you’ve got to try and get something for him. You can’t accept a draft pick in return for what Bavsi did to the farm system. Maybe the Yankees part with Hughes and Kennedy after Santana – not a bad young threesome w/ Felix at the top.
Johjima should be given away for anything offered and Clement moved up permanently. There has to be some team out there (Cincy?) willing to take a shot.
The rest, except for the core group you mentioned, can all go. A few of them might bring a player or two, but none of them, save Putz, looks like anything more than a role player on a good team.
Beyond that, the Ms have to go hard for Texiera. Those guys don’t come around very often. Obviously he’s headed toward the AL East, but they should make it a tough choice.
Anything other than a complete overhaul of this team and organization is accepting the sub-mediocrity that this franchise has fallen into and years of continued irrelevance.
Bedard’s under club control through 2009. He’s not going anywhere.
What about Morrow as trade bait? If we are not combing him into being a starter, he may have more value elsewhere, and we are trying to fill left field. I assume we cannot get anything for our starting pitchers (side question: do you think we could get anything for our starting pitchers?), and since we have them all next year, Morrow is superfluous if we are playing for 2009.
In the same vein, what are your outfield thoughts for 09?
Lyon – us going hard after Texiera would be a really bad mistake. 1B/DH should always be cheap free agents or brought from within. Their skill set is relatively easy to produce.
What kinds of internal options do we have to fill some of those holes?
Is a Reed-Ichiro-Balentien acceptable at the major league level? I’d imagine that the Reed/Ichiro portion of it would provide adequate defense, if not somewhat better than average.
As far a I know we’re pretty tapped out in the minor leagues in terms of talent that can actually perform at the MLB level.
I love the idea of fielding a great defensive team and I think that is a pretty doable approach. I do wonder if we’d be able to clear people off of the roster with some of the horrible contracts we’ve signed.
At the very least we’re going to be eating a lot of payroll.
I understand he’s under club control through 2009.
My point/question is how can we afford to hang on to him with no guarantee he will stay here long-term? If we gave up Jones, Sherill and 3 prospects for two years of Bedard, that is terrible.
I think the contract extension subject has to be broached either now or in the off-season so the M’s can make a good decision.
Unless you feel that we can truly win in 2009 at which point you go for broke and hope he stays here.
Dave – I will read that, which I admit I haven’t. And will get back to you with someone thing of substance.Although I am afraid if I get one word spelled wrong my entire post might get deleted.
Churchill says “The Mariners have NO CHANCE at re-signing Beltre. NONE.”
So…
34, I could not disagree with you more.
If you’re afraid your post might get deleted, spend more time on it. Seriously, this isn’t facebook. It won’t kill you to learn how to do some research, form a real argument, and then learn how to proofread before you hit the button that says “This comment is free of spelling errors.”
If you want the baseball version of facebook, that’s easy to find. The standard here is higher than that, and it’s really not unreasonable to ask people to have something useful to say before they start taking up space.
Sorry 34, let me explain better –
The skillset of “I can hit and catch the ball” is not hard to find, you’re right. But that’s not Texiera’s skillset. Texiera is “I can hit the ball really, really well and I am a fantastic defensive first baseman that will make your club considerably better for many years.”
Finding SOMEONE to take first base is easy. Finding someone that good to cover the bag is far more difficult.
Jeff, Matthew, and Graham agree with me on pretty much everything – note, they’ve now stolen my defense bandwagon. But on Teixeira, we part ways. You guys are crazy for wanting to give him $150 million. Flat out crazy.
CaptainP – The chance you take by not chasing Texiera is ending up with another Sexson. Maybe there’s somebody in the system who can match his numbers and defense, but they’re well hidden if that’s true.
I doubt that they go after him and, if they did, he wouldn’t sign. He looks like a Yankee.
Yeah, Dave. I’m sorry. They sold me on him
.
I’ve always been a big JJ fan and we have him signed for way less than he’s worth, but closers are notoriously easy to replace (Brandon Morrow?). Wonder what we’d get for him?
As for Clement, man that Johjima extension hurts. Kenji’s a fine player, but I’ve been looking forward to Clemmy for years. You really don’t think it’d be worth it to play Kenji 100 games at catcher and 60 at dh while Clem plays 60 at catcher and 100 at dh? You think it would be tough for Clement to learn the position without playing full time? That’s too bad. Do you really think we could get Joey Votto and then some for him? I agree that in the long term that deal would make sense, but I don’t think there’s a lot of GMs that would take that risk. Of course, I might just be used to Bavasi’s style, but I don’t see someone trading a 24 year old with an .839 OPS in the majors for a 24 year old with a 1.253 OPS in the minors, even if the minor leaguer is a catcher (as I look at that, it seems ridiculous, but I still think it seems true). If Clement were in the majors hitting with some pop and drawing some walks then sure, but every GM I’ve ever watched closely (that is Pat Gillick and Billy B) think minor league numbers have about as much value as Pauly Shore (who I actually thought was dead until recently). It only makes sense if you believe in the value of minor league statistics and I just don’t think enough of the high ups do to make that trade.
They’re wrong.
I don’t like the Tex idea. First base is pretty easy to fill and we don’t need to spend a boatload on him. He’s going east anyways.
I would much rather see us upgrade the middle infield. Look at the Phillies with Rollins-Utley and how sick that is. If you can get studs up the middle you gain an advantage on teams.
Wow, Washburn is making a ton of money for someone who sucks so bad. Is there any chance at all of getting someone to take him (as part of a package deal)? Maybe we should chuck Batista and Silva while we’re at it. Bring up the kids! (Kidding, sorta).
I think this team made a big mistake by not developing Morrow as a starter. If they had sent him down to the minors last year and this year to learn a few more pitchers, he’d be a really solid number three in 2009. I don’t know what the learning curve is for this type of transition, and it probably varies depending on the player, but maybe we could still get that result if we send him down now. Problem is, the Ms are too shortsighted to do it (under this FO).
Every time I hear about another Tim Lincecum victory (he’s what, 6-1?) I cringe. We coulda had that guy.
Chase Utley might be the best player in baseball. I would much rather see us get Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Johan Santana while we’re at it too.
*few more pitches
Obviously I know we can’t get Utley. I was advocating for Cano who I think could be had via Bedard.
The Phils also have Howard bombing 45-50+/yr. I agree with upgrading the middle, but you’ve got a big bat coming into his prime sitting there for the taking. Give him the cash offered to Zito + some of what Sexson is sucking out of the franchise and see what happens.
Who is this Churchill guy and why is he so certain that Beltre isn’t staying with the Mariners?
Pujols and Teixeira are both first basemen, both have strange names, and both are millionaires. So it is obvious why someone might mistake their skills and value Tex anywhere near Albert.
Players like Tex come along all the time. He’s great, but he’s not someone who can’t be missed.
Do you think anything will ever become of Bryan LaHair or is he a lifetime minor leaguer?
Or, he can be missed.
No double negative that time.
Regarding Cano: I don’t think the Mariners need another low OBP guy. You can get away with three or four of those type of hitters, but not a whole lineup’s worth.
I don’t have a problem with shopping AB. You really don’t think he’s widely regarded? I could see him fetching some loot. Having said that I would like to add that any player who has a tic of calling his own check swing gets an A+ in my book. It’s great to root for a team of A+ players.
Jspek, I respect your humility. USSM, I respect your excellence.
This is Churchill and he knows a lot.
About your comment at 46, I’m not saying that they’re right. I’m saying that I don’t think they would do it. So then you really think that they would do it? I find that hard to believe.
18- You’ll hold onto the odds of flipping 100 heads in a row? That’s (1/2)^100, or 1/(1.27×10^30). Or, 1 over 127,000,… with 25 more zeros after it. Save yourself some time and plan for the jspektor/Dave slumber party.
If it means anything to anybody (and no, this is not a Lou related thing), just remember how the Cubs turned it around in ’07 after losing 90+ games in ’06.
I look at the solid core like Dave said and some of the other players we have on this team, and believe it or not, this team could turn it around next year and at least compete for a playoff spot and then build from there in ’10, ’11, etc.
But let’s not lose sight of the fact that this team and this organization is going to need to do a big time, major-league about face right here in terms of attitude and philosophy.
This organization needs to worry about winning a World Series first, not just making a profit. Baseball positions in the front office must be filled with baseball people and these baseball people must have common sense, and at least some decent statistical know-how with experience (and for that matter, experience on winning clubs) being a bonus.
And then the players on the field must be able to not just produce on the field, even though that is the most important factor in determining the value of a player, but he must be willing to go the extra mile and dive for balls he sometimes feels he can’t catch anyway, crash into walls, hustle on every play, and never feel that he’s out of a game even when he’s down by 5 runs while also having a manager and coaching staff that is not only intelligent and has common sense along with good statistical know-how, but also must be willing to push their players just enough to bring out their best rather than their worst.
Starting in ’09, I hope we talk about how this franchise has just the right combination of passion for the game along with intelligence and common sense of the game. Because I know just by watching the stat heads in places like Arizona, Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay win games along with how Lou managed the Mariners with extreme passion in the ’90′s and then seeing how his players put that passion on the field every night that the right combination of intelligence and passion for the game is going to go a long way towards this franchise being successful again very soon.
OK, so I talked about Lou very briefly. Sorry, but I was just trying to make a point.
I always heard/thought it was good strategy for OFers to be subjective about when they’d throw themselves out for body-shaking catches, insofar as they’d stay healthier to make those kind of catches later in the season or during the playoffs. Dunno what others think of that theory.
#60: Let’s put it this way, if the game is on the line, an OF better at least think about diving to make a catch or crashing into a fence to make a catch.
Obviously every OF is different and every play and game is different, but I think at least an OF should be willing when the game is on the line to lay his body out there.
I still can’t get past the fact that anyone thought this was even a decent team going into this year. Someone needs to tell these guys the Mendoza line isn’t for winning %.
Ah good then, we don’t disagree. I thought you were suggesting with “crash into walls, hustle on every play” that Ichiro should be as ready to dive for a flyball in the 1st as in the 9th with a man on 3rd.
This is what the 2008 Mariners need to do:
1. Send B. Morrow down to the minors to develop him as a Starter. When 2010 rolls around, we NEED Morrow and/or 1 more minor leaguer to develop otherwise we’re going to have to fill 3 SPOTS in our starting rotation through free agency, which is a recipe for disaster (assuming we dont reach a contract extension w/ Beda… I mean Washburn).
2. Trade Clement for Votto straight up. (On a side note, if we hadn’t extended Joh, we could’ve traded a 1/2-season-left-on-contract-Johjima to a contender for a 1B prospect equivalent to Votto imo. That’s how dumb the contract extension was…).
3. Make sure Vidro’s option doesn’t vest.
4. Trade away Putz and Betancourt for prospects.
5. Play Reed in LF and Wlad in RF full time, hoping that maybe Reed’s BAT or Wlad’s GLOVE are good enough for the majors.
Churchill said there are already plans in the works for a Beltre/LA reunion in 2010. It isn’t the first time I’ve heard it either. Just the other day I saw some Dodger fans talking about it as well. Beltre’s family is still in the LA area, so I’m guessing that has something to do with it.
Which sucks, because Beltre is going to be hard to replace. He may not have been the bat we all had hoped for, but he’s still been damn good with with it to go along with as good as it gets defense at 3B. He can play 3B on my team any day.
#48 – I don’t see the Yankees giving up Cano. He’s signed to a great deal and he’s the only non-declining power threat other than A-Rod in that lineup.
One possibilty could be to try and get Uggla from the Marlins and move him to 1B. He’s not a lefty, but his power is more gap-to-gap and Dolphin Stadium is actually even worse on righties than Safeco. Or if the D-Backs have decided that they’re content with Reynolds at third, Chad Tracy could provide a lefty bat with decent power at first.
Going with the defense theme, Coco Crisp will definitely be available this off-season. That would either provide an upgrade in left or the Mariners could put him in center and move Ichiro back to right, losing nothing in center and dramatically improving right field. Roberts should be available again this winter, but after how the Orioles raped the Ms in the Bedard deal, I’m not sure that they should even try for that one.
On the Teixiera debate, it’s silly to say that you shouldn’t go after him because 1B are easy to find or develop. He is a far above-average hitter (career OPS+ 130) and a very good defender. The reason that the Ms should not pursue him is simply that both the Mets and Yankees have him on their shopping lists and the bidding war between them will drive the price to ridiculous levels. He’ll probably get somewhere around 8 years/150 million which is far higher than he should get. If the Mariners could get him for something like 5 years/75 million, then maybe that would be a deal to make. But it won’t happen.
And just to throw in my two-cents on Beltre vs Chavez, I would take Chavez in a heartbeat if I didn’t think his injuries had take a major toll on his abilities at this point. Even if he manages to stay on the field, back problems are never good for a fielders defensive abilities and I doubt that he’ll ever top 15 homeruns again. So, right now, yes. Beltre is better, but only because Chavez’ body betrayed him.
#63: No, no, no, not necessarily. I mean every play should matter to these players because all 27 outs count the same even though I know that the attitude of a game in the 1st inning is very different from that in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. But I’m just saying at the very least when the game is on the line, I want players in the game that are willing to go the extra mile and dive for a ball they can’t catch, crash into a wall, etc.
Teixeira the defensive wiz…
You do realize that designating someone as a great defensive first baseman is like telling your wife she’s the prettiest of all the ugly girls.
You do realize that designating someone as a great defensive first baseman is like telling your wife she’s the prettiest of all the ugly girls.
You do realise that a run is a run no matter how you slice it?
Tex can hit while being good at D, which sets him apart. It would be a huge upgrade over Richie, who only can’t field, but also has lost his ability to hit. I just don’t see Teixeria realistically being a Mariner. Sorry guys.
Dave, I remember you stating how Johjima isn’t a player you’d want to get rid of before this season. Has that opinion changed with his regression? Is it a possibility that Clement and Johjima split time as catcher in future seasons, rather than needing Jamie Burke in the line up?
I think you’re right that we could have a good 09, with the right person making moves. But this is why we always come back to the Bavasi issue however, because he can’t do it.
I do however, don’t think Clement should go. He’s got his head screwed on straight, and look at how important Varitek is to the sox. We gave upon him, and I think Clement could be one like him, a pretty good hitting catcher who’s smart, calls a good game, and has a long career.
Whoops. Grammar goof. Sleepy
70- Well yeah, you keep talking about when the game is on the line, which I 100% agree with. While in a way this is partially mitigated by his later extended stints on the DL, I first heard the idea that Griffey *always* tried for highlight catches by pounding into the walls and diving for balls, but that ate up his body faster, causing more injuries. If that’s bunk (or Cameron/Ichiro always stretched for every flyball) I’d like to abolish that misconception.
This might not be the right time to discuss this with his mysterious suspension, but do we want to give Beltre 90 million or whatever if Triunfel is even close to ready in 2010? I love Beltre, but Triunfel’s a third baseman right?
I love what you have here (even if I am not sure starting from scratch isn’t the right idea)
But there are some Problems I foresee…
Everyone seems to know this is the right thing to do with Ibane(Righty Platoon), but no manager has done it. Also, Ibanez has been known to complain about DHing in the past and I could see him going to the NL just so he could play in the field.
Putz can go but as well but that will probably mean the Brandon Morrow never starts a game in his career. If Putz get traded, Lowe or Morrow are the first candidates to get pushed into the closer role.
Clement for Votto is just genius, but knowing our GM, we would end up giving them the extra player. Not to mention if you deal Ibanez or he goes else where, who is to say that Johjima doesn’t move to DH and Clement catches? It could happen and it should happen.
I like what you have, but our management will make the same mistakes they have made forever.
Bavasi will continue to make horrible trades.
Mac will continue to use his team wrong.
Lincoln will still be here.
Armstrong will still be here.
So while is easy for some of us to see what do…the three stooges (Bavasi, Lincoln, Armstrong) could have an aneurysm, just trying to comprehend what you just posted.
77 – Triunfel can play SS, 2B or 3B in the future
So no worries
Excellent post, Dave. And I agree with all of it… as well as with your popular refrain on defense.
If I woke up tomorrow and the only difference with the team was that they got realistic about the importance of defense (and realistic about the quality of their own) then it would change my outlook on the team considerably.
Because if they can’t recognize that at all… I don’t feel like I have any room for hope. Why bother?
I feel like right now you could take all the bat gloves we trot out there (Ibanez, Sexson, etc.) and replace them with all-glove minor league replacements and the team might be just as good.
Dave, I have a question. It may be a stupid one, but let’s try it out…
The team seems to have money to spend, but nowhere to spend it, really, except on over-priced FAs. What the team doesn’t have is a deep young talent pool.
Has any GM ever tried a, say, two-year strategy of signing FAs only to turn around and trade them at the deadline for prospects?
Or are there other ways at turning cash into prospects? Could they just pave the streets of Central America with Seattle gold? Could they just say “Hey, Bill… we just almost spent 30 million on Zito. Why don’t you put that in your pocket and fly down to Venezuela. Don’t come back without at least enough guys to fill an AA team.”
There has to be a quicker way to get some bodies in the system then just relying on the draft.
I don’t think the Reds would deal Votto for Clement straight up, much less throw in another player. What’s in it for them?
I don’t think the Reds would deal Votto for Clement straight up, much less throw in another player. What’s in it for them?
A catcher.
Um… A potential major offensive contributer at catcher, which is rare and valuable.
I don’t understand why Johjima’s contract precludes Clement from being a Catcher. As Bavasi said, “we signed him to a contract, not a role on the team.” Johjima has looked very bad this year so far, and there’s reason to believe he might actually be cooked – that sometimes happens to 30+ Catchers with a lot of mileage on their knees. Anyway, I wouldn’t make trading Clement a priority.
Part of the problem with trying to do deadline deals is that the value of some of these players isn’t their highest:
– The team’s recent mishandling of Clement combined with Johjima’s extension signal that at least the M’s don’t think he’s a major league catcher. That may or may not be accurate, but it will surely drive his price down if that’s how the M’s try to position him to a trade partner.
– Putz has had health issues and hasn’t looked as good – yet – as he did last year.
– No team will consider Ibanez anything but a DH, but the team’s irrational fondness for him (which I’m assuming is GM-independent) may drive up his cost beyond reason.
Sure, we’re two months from the deadline and some of these are temporary, team-specific issues that don’t necessarily impact the players’ values for the future. But they’re enough to make other teams pause, and that could be enough to bring less than full value in return.
The ’97 Marlins (and even the ’03 team to a lesser extent) signed and traded for several players they obviously had no intention of keeping. I don’t know if that’s a plan I’d try to replicate, but it sure worked for them.
When citing Teixeira’s career numbers, it needs to be noted that he was helped immensely by his home park in Texas. His career road OPS is .860 (OBP .362 SLG .498). which is decent, not great for a first baseman, and not OPS+ 130 territory. He’s going to be way overpaid. I’d much rather point that money elsewhere.
Whoops – John in LA, you said deadline deals. I’m pretty sure the Marlins sold off the players from the ’97 team in the offseason.
The Johjima extension is a disaster, but I don’t think it means that they should trade Clement. Why not just keep him?
Clement’s gonna be 25 at the end of this season. Yes, there’s really no reason to not play him every day at catcher now, but I think the M’s should keep him and platoon him with Johjima next year, with the idea that he’ll take over full time in 2010 when he’ll be 26. That way Johjima is still around for the last two seasons of his deal as a platoon/backup to try and catch maybe 1/4 of the games and save some wear and tear on Clement. It’s also possible that Johjima would be such a disaster next year that Clement would have to take over for him anyway, despite what they’re paying Kenji.
Also, obviously Clement’s value as a 1B is lower than as a catcher, but the 1B free agent list for this offseason looks pretty bad. Is it better to keep him around to play 1B rather than doing another Sexon-esque deal that they’d soon regret? He’d be cheap, decent bat, probably not particularly good defensively, but at least they’d save some money and not have a long term albatross around their necks.
Hrm, plan for the future….
Start today by DFAing Batista and Sexson
Washburn to pen for middle relief/mop up work, RA Dickie to the rotation.
Morrow goes to Tacoma to make a few starts, develops another pitch, and comes back up in late July/ Early August and joins the rotation.
Ibanez to 1st base, Joh to DH, Clement to #1 catcher, Reed stays in LF.
There’s still one starting pitcher unaccounted for in this scenario, as well as a reliever, but hell, at least it could make the rest of the season more interesting.
Dave has again given the blogosphere a really interesting post on what the M’s could do for 2009. He did not include Morrow, and the other stellar pieces of the bull pen like Sean Green, and Ryan Roland Smith who either have trade value, or should be retained because they are good, and cheap.
I think it is possible to successfully retool the M’s. Billy Beane turned over 17 out of the 25 opening day roster A’s from last year to this year’s opening roster. The A’s look very good going forward, and their payroll is only $48 million this year.
Any thoughts about playing time in 2008 as a factor in making decisions for 2009 and beyond?
I keep thinking about that – it seems to me that getting Jeremy Reed some regular PT in a corner outfield spot would be a darn good thing. Clearly a defensive upgrade, and maybe those AAA numbers aren’t a complete fluke. He probably deserves another shot, right?
The same probably holds true for Wlad, although I know there are some concerns about his readiness (plate discipline and defense, I think, although I haven’t heard a great scouting report on his D yet).
I’m also wondering how long Yuni is the right choice at shortstop. He clearly has potential, but after two full seasons it seems that he’s still more flash than substance.
more like a damp squib.
not to mention the extra on top of the out-bidding that you’d have to pay to get him to come here
in 13 IP.
The one to trade would be Johjima. Even if the M’s had to part with serious money (which I am sure they would in order to get another team to take on his contract).
I suppose the reason no one suggested that is because even by paying most of his contract, it would be unlikely to get any valuable prospects for him. His OPS is over .700 for May, though, so maybe in the next month or so if he starts or keeps on hitting, there might be a buyer before the trade deadline.
I actually believe Management is on the way out. How can they stick with Bavasi after his 5 year train wreck?
Sometimes You have to hit rock bottom before you can get back up.
The best suggestion and perhaps the most easy to carry out quickly is to fire the front office. My question: Where is the line drawn? Whom and below gets axed? Lincoln fires them? or does he go also? Is it Armstrong and Lincoln firing everyone? I’d like to see them all go, but I don’t see Lincoln going anywhere.
OK, but Seattle doesn’t see Clement as a catcher, do they? Good luck on selling him as a future MLB catcher to someone else. A new regime could do that, maybe, but a regime that’s already decided he’s not their catcher of the future is going to have a hard time selling another organization into paying full value for him based on that premise.
Beltre is represented by Scott Boras, so he’ll likely test the free agent market.
You know, I don’t think Lincoln is the problem. I think it starts with Armstrong … and goes all the way down to the Moose.
I know for a fact Lincoln is getting pissed / worried / sick and tired of losing. They know they need to make a move I just dont know if they will make drastic moves mid-season. I think they will let Bavasi go down with this ship / pretend all is merry then roll heads in the off season.
Considering the magnitude of that trade with Baltimore the most important thing is to keep Felix and Bedard at this point.
I’m not as baseball astute as others on the discussion, but it seems survival in the AL requires “power at the corners”. Specifically, your big run producers come from 1B, 3B, LF and RF. Throw DH in for good measure. (Someone please correct this theory, if I’m phrasing it wrong.)
As Bender@35 asked:
Average singles-hitter, great singles-hitter, average power-hitter.
Now, throw in Beltre+filler-first-baseman. I don’t see anything in the power category.
Last, if our defensive liabilities were improved this year, our record wouldn’t be signficantly different because of our lack of ability to score runs.
(Thank you, Fangraphs. What a great resource.)
Because of this, any club rebuild that improves defensively but gains little in hitting production effectively gets you nowhere.
Nah, that’s not true. Not to be too simplistic, but you win by scoring more than your opponent, no matter how you get there. If you can field an average offensive team with great pitching and great defense, you’ll win a ton of games. You don’t have to get power out of particular positions or defense out of others, though the defensive spectrum lends itself to getting cheap mashers at 1B/LF particularly.
On the other hand, if your biggest offensive woes are at DH and first base, that is the easiest situation to correct.
If Clement ultimately has more value as a catcher, how about moving Kenji over to DH?
I started write a post saying that the Mariners should trade Beltre this year, but thought about it some more. Because the closest 3B to the majors in the organization is Tui and I don’t trust them to get a decent fill-in, I think they hold on to Beltre through 2009 and then try to sign him then. Because the position would be incredibly difficult to fill next year, I think they’d be punting two years by trading Beltre now.
“I know for a fact Lincoln is getting pissed / worried / sick and tired of losing. ”
How do you know? You hang out with the guy?
Also — if that’s true, why hasn’t he fired himself?
“Man, I sure am sure of punching myself in the face. Why do I keep doing that? That makes me so angry I’m going to punch myself in the face.”
I think the frustating part is that we could have been preparing for 2009 AND could have probably been better this year at the same time…
If Morrow had been left down, he’d probably be ready to start next year.
In Spring Training, instead of worrying that Morse and Baek were out of options, they should have sold high on them and gotten whatever they could have…they both had great springs and we know how keeping them around turned out…
Derek said:
Thanks Derek, and I would relatively agree. Back during the 2000-2001 heyday, Boone was a big masher while David Bell wasn’t so much. So I get the flip-flop of it all.
The thing I buy into is that we need to have a greater level of sufficient power in the lineup, but for all the positions where that’s supposedly ample in supply (1B and LF for example), the M’s can’t seem to get those players here.
In the outfield, for example, it seems the best power production we’ve had this decade from imported players are Raul and Jose Guillen. And in the infield, Sexie requires no introduction. Uggh.
In terms of acquiring production, the 1B-LF options for the M’s just don’t seem to be quite that plentiful. Maybe that’s more a function (failure?) of the FO and their ability to evaluate/sign those types of players.
I think our pitching future looks crazy good…even after losing Tillman and Butler, we have a bunch of great arms in the minors…they are years away, but Felix, Bedard, and Morrow are young enough that when the others are ready, and the piles of dung we have are gone, we are going to have a fantastic pitching staff…we just need to get some average hitting defensive minded position players to catch the fucking ball…
I’d say it’s this.
107 – I know this sounds insane but I am good friends with a guy who is very close with Lincoln.
His exact words to me (not Lincoln, but his friend): “Howard is very worried. They don’t know what to do, they know they are losing and know that people are fed up. They are trying to figure something out and they really expected to win this year.”
Take that for what it’s worth, but this is actually what I heard more or less.
This is why I am confident huge changes are in the works.
Paul B said:
Thanks Paul. See my comment #110. It seems like this is a harder situation to correct than meets the eye.
110- Not to defend Richie too much, cause he sucks, but he can hit for power…didn’t he get to 100 HRs as a Mariner the fastest or something? He has more flaws than we can count, but he can hit the ball really, really far…
I think we’re drifting off the original Dave topic which, as he so kindly requested we not do. This was, and if we’re going to pay him the courtesy, about building the 2009 team and not so much Lincoln & Co.
To that end: there seems to be a wide sentiment to trade Washburn, Batista, Silva, and whoever else to anyone for anything. I’m not sure that’s so helpful: as bad as they’ve been, I don’t think that moving them both onto someone else’s roster necessarily opens up a spot for an improvement this year.
Though really, the team could go scrap-heap shopping for three starters for next year and do better than hitting the FA market again.
bakomariner said:
Yep.
I (and presumably everyone else) would trade some of his distance for a little more contact.
Yeah, I don’t necessarily think you move everyone. Washburn seems to be completely useless at this point, but Batista seems like a serviceable middle-inning guy (and substitute closer if needed). Silva could stand to lose a few pounds, but he started the year productively. Seems acceptable for a 4th or 5th starter.
119 – I love paying our middle-innings guy 9.5 million dollars.
and (ignoring for now why he is being run out there this year) that he’s “been battling a lot of stuff since spring training. My back, my foot, my back. And then I had a dead arm. It’s hard to get everything going when you’re not completely healthy.”
I think that Bautista would be okay for long relief and Silva would make an OKAY 5th starter…
Felix, Bedard, Morrow (after the rest of the year in AAA), Aumont, and Silva would be pretty damn good…
I know Aumont is years away, but he’s special…
And 110- I wasn’t saying that Richie is a good hitter, but he does hit for power well, and it seemed like you were not giving him any credit…
I will only give Richie credit for hiking the prices of the beer I drink at the games.
But yeah, I guess he hits a homer sometimes.
Beer prices are unrelated to payroll.
120 – yeah, the payroll situation makes the titanic-deck-chair shuffling of the roster almost a joke.
121 – really good point. I’ve been guessing that Batista is making excuses for a lot of things right now, and that his “ailments” will get cleared up as soon as his rotation slot is pulled.
122 – didn’t mean to imply you thought Richie was a good hitter (jeez, can’t remember the last time I wrote “richie…good…hitter” in one sentence.) Just wishful thinking on my part that we could trade part of his country-mile prowess for better mileage overall.
“His exact words to me (not Lincoln, but his friend): ‘Howard is very worried. They don’t know what to do, they know they are losing and know that people are fed up. They are trying to figure something out and they really expected to win this year.’â€
Let’s hope this doesn’t translate to more bobblehead promotions, “family-friendly” events, and a desperation trade for Junior Griffey. You can never be too sure with the Mariner FO.
DMZ:
The 2001-2006 Minnesota Twins were a perfect example, except average offense (at best), slightly above pitching, and great defense. The great defense made their starters look great. Joe Mays became one of the better pitchers in the league because Torii Hunter was going to catch everything, or that infield turned everything into outs.
One issue I do have with Dave’s post
is that I don’t think Yuni and Lopez are as valuable to this team as Morrow or Putz are. Especially if the defensive metrics are correct, and Yuni is no longer a top-flight SS, then his value is negligible.
I also believe that the order for resigning Johjima came down from on high, or the decision was made during spring training, and they just hadn’t finalized the contract until 3 weeks into the season. Sort of like the whole Hanley Ramirez deal. I can fault Bavasi for not putting up a fight against it, but for some reason I think he didn’t make that by himself.
124 – Yeah I guess things will get cheaper the more we pay our players … riiiiight
Are beverages cheap at college games, where the players are unpaid? Think this through.
Derek – It is all intertwined … every single cost the Mariners incur (including Payroll) goes into how much Tickets, Beer, Food, Merchandise costs. That is Business 101. You don’t think the fans are paying for the 200 Million plus payroll in NYC?
You can still get a 7.00 premium beer in Oakland. Here it is 8.50
No, its not. Price is a function of supply and demand. Payroll is not intertwined with beer price.
Can I make a suggestion – can you begin all of your thoughts with the assumption that the people here aren’t stupid? It would really help if you start from a place where you realize that we know what we’re talking about, and that if there’s a really obvious point that you think we’re missing, we’re probably not missing it.
128 – seems like, in MLB, player payroll is much more heavily influenced by overall league revenue sharing. Beverages go into that, sure, but I don’t believe they represent a significant component of the overall revenue. If you believe this source, the bulk of league revenue is from television contracts.
Okobojicat, Dave didn’t say that Betancourt or Lopez are as valuable as Morrow or Putz, only that they still have value to the 2009 roster.
You’re not thinking this through. Costs incurred don’t go into how much they charge for things.
Teams charge as much as they can for their products based on supply/demand. That’s all.
If your theory was correct, the A’s beers should be dramatically cheaper than the M’s, since they run lower costs across the board by about 70%.
They’re not.
The Yankees spend vastly more on payroll than the Red Sox or Mariners, but their beer prices aren’t vastly larger. They’re about what you’d expect they can demand given the higher cost of living and affluence in New York.
College football programs are radically cheaper to run than pro franchises. They’re not radically cheaper to attend.
Supply and demand is business 101, as you said, not “costs = prices”
[this is not a board]
If the A’s offered much cheaper beer than the M’s, you would think their attendance would be higher, considering that they also have a better team.
I am not arguing that Payroll = Beer Price … I’m just saying on a GRAND level they are all intertwined.
132 – I am sure you are right about TV revenue as well
Okay, first, I said “You’re being dumb.” Not “you’re dumb”. There’s a huge difference. And then I said “You know, I don’t want to start off saying that” and edited it.
Repeating your belief in something doesn’t make it true, and it doesn’t explain away the counter-examples.
We’re trying to be nice to you, but you have no idea what you’re talking about, and you whine incessantly. Do you realize how hard that makes it for us to care what you think?
131 – Never once did I say that I don’t think the ‘brain trust’ of USSM Mariner knows anything. Never do I assume that people here ‘are stupid’, you certainly come down on people pretty hard.
In fact, I’ve been called dumb more times on this BLOG than Bill Bavasi. Somehow the rules don’t apply to com mentors on this blog but to Mariners executives?
I’m sorry, but you did say exactly that. You said Sexson = higher beer prices.
I think you are spot on except for one thing, organizationally, the M’s do not appear (I admit I might be wrong on this) to have the same scouting strength of other teams minor league systems as they do college and high school players. Without that critical information, it doesn’t matter who the GM is who trades to rebuild. To make your scenerio work, the organization would really have to know who they wanted. I don’t think they do. To get the jump you mentioned, they have to make the decision now, start identifying the target players and have a plan. Sadly, none of that can happen because the current GM cannot make that decision without admitting defeat and getting fired. I am rambling, you are right, I don’t, however, think the organization can do it. They might fire people but that is eye wash.
jspektor, you’re just wrong on this one. Supply/demand drives prices. If the income generated at those prices isn’t enough to pay your costs, you find a way to cut costs. I can assure you that your example of beer prices at A’s vs. Mariners games can be explained entirely by supply/demand. Costs have nothing to do with it.
Dave / DMZ -
I will stop having this argument with you … It is downright insulting that you think I “Whine Incessantly” and that I have “No Idea what I am talking about”.
I get this BLOG’s back wherever I can … whether it be defending it in a Geoff Baker argument or whether its on the street.
But the pretentiousness is pretty ridiculous … and completely unnecessary.
If I walked into an astrophysics professor’s classroom and started explaining why the earth was the center of the universe, I wouldn’t think he was pretentious when he told me to stop talking and sit down.
It’s okay to be wrong. Just learn from it and realize where you’re making your mistakes. It will make you a better person.
I will admit that I am wrong on this one. I want to ask one question though.
Do you think if we had the lowest payroll in baseball that our beer would be the same price?v
“Adrian Beltre, Third Base: Underrated, not really replaceable. Keep him.”
Overrated. Overpaid.
“Irreplaceable”? Yeah, no way they could find somebody who could bat better than his .271 career average, or his .246 average this season. Impossible.
Belongs in the NL, where he might be able to get away with impersonating an all-star at least once more in his career.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2008/05/16/2004420663.jpg
If the M’s could charge an extra $1/beer right now and the demand didn’t go down enough to make that an unprofitable decision, they would.
If they had the lowest payroll because they sucked and weren’t drawing enough people who could pay $8 a beer, they’d cut prices.
If they had the lowest payroll and drew exactly the same crowd with exactly the same buying patterns, they’d hold it steady.
Do you think if we had the lowest payroll in baseball that our beer would be the same price?
Pretty close, yes. Ticket prices are more likely to be related to payroll than concessions. Now, can we declare the price of beer off-topic for the rest of the thread and get back to discussing the 2009 roster?
Yes. They’re entirely unrelated.
The team sets prices for the items its trying to sell at the level they believe they can maximize their profit on that product at. If the team believes that lowering prices will lead to more consumption and the extra purchases will offset the drop in per unit price, they’ll lower prices. If they believe they can charge more and consumption won’t change, they’ll raise prices.
The players could forfeit the entire $117 million payroll and the organization could still decide to raise prices on beer if they found the equilibrium price/consumption level was rising due to a spike in demand.
The cost of the players on the team has no more relevance to beer prices than the temperature of a beach in Florida on a given Tuesday.
Please cross-apply Dave’s previous posts on Beltre’s value and why he’s underrated.
True. But I think looking at it as “let’s make our defense better” or “lets make our offense better” is the wrong approach. It’s better to look position by position, trying to make each position better based on total offense + defense (e.g. Wins Above Replacment, like Dave did at the start of the season). Otherwise, I think you leave yourself open to playing whack-a-mole, improving one side of the runs equation by creating an even bigger problem on the other side.
I’m probably not being very clear, so maybe an example. We could improve our defense by starting Willie Bloomquist instead of Richie Sexson at 1B, but that would make our offense even worse. So to fix that, we go find some masher 2B, but that guy can’t field, so we get our offense back to even, but open another hole in the defense. So we go out and get a slick fielding LF who can’t hit, and the offense takes another dive, etc. Basically, I think trying to improve one side of the ball, instead of trying to improve a specific position, will just mean you’re chasing the problem around the field, until you run out of positions and have to settle for whatever frankenroster you’ve assembled.
Instead, the M’s ought to look at their roster and start evaluating each position against the average talent a playoff contender sticks at that position. That’s the bar – anything below playoff average is a target for improvement.
Well, they are related to “a” payroll. Or rather several payrolls. Microsoft’s, Boeing’s, Costco’s… the more your customers get paid, the more you can charge for beer. I hope jspektor’s friend who knows Lincoln is not the M’s CFO.
It seems simple enough to understand JSpek. I don’t know why you’re arguing. Oh, that’s right, you said “I will admit that I am wrong on this one” basically conceding the point and then asking a question that would/could induce another argument.
It’s the same thing as a backhanded compliment.
Mike Snow
My bad. I misinterpreted that section of Dave‘s post.
The Votto for Clement trade would work well for both teams. Great point.
I also like the Putz idea. Look what Texas got for Gagne last year; a very good 5 tool OF in Murphy, a potential good SP in Sexson’s BFF Kason Gabbard, and another good prospect in Beltre. Putz, without a doubt, brings more value than Gagne did last year (Perfomance and contract). If we could get two MLB ready prospects or at least one stud prospect I would definately consider pulling the trigger. The only problem is who will be our closer in 09? We need Morrow in the rotation.
Trading Ibanez is a no-brainer in my opinion. He is 37 years old and a FA after this season, yet he would probably command pretty good talent in return. Many teams could use a left-handed bat like that of Raul.
The only disagreement I have in your post Dave is the idea Yuni is a valuable player. This is his 4th year (3rd full) and he is a below average hitter, average fielder, and below average runner in my opinion. Seems as though he always is hitting into DPs. I almost think we have become brain-washed into thinking Yuni will someday pan-out. I know for a stretch last year he was on fire, but his OBP is horrendous. Look, I want nothing more than to have Yuni break-out and become a stud, but how long are we going to give him? I think he is a below average shortstop.
Lastly, speaking of trading guys, I know ownership would never do it, but on a talent/salary level I would deal Ichiro if we could get some good talent in return. He is almost 35 years old and seems to be losing a step out of the box. I know he has a plethora of steals, but much of that is due to his jump and lead. It maybe time to think about trading Ich. Melky and Hughes for Ichiro?
Great post here Dave.
!!!
Man, I take a day off and sleep in, and get accused of something like this (although I admit to my original post about going after defense in this comment thread being almost entirely stolen from your ideas)!
I like Teixeira well enough, but not for the amount of money he’s likely to get.
Next, you’re going to accuse me of secretly being a Bloomquist fan or something. I’m keeping my eye on you, Dave.
Also:
The only possible way that beer prices could even remotely relate to payroll is that you need to make sure your income streams (of which beer is one) generate enough revenue to cover your costs (of which payroll is one).
Once you’re past that point (which the Mariners are well past), though, it’s all about maximizing profits, so they’ll charge whatever amount for beer that they think people will still buy enough of to generate maximum profit.
“Irreplaceable� Yeah, no way they could find somebody who could bat better than his .271 career average, or his .246 average this season. Impossible.
Wrong.
Compare it to ticket prices. If the team sells out every game, its prices are too low. The goal for the team with ticket prices is to maximise revenue. If they sell all they can at a given price, then they’re not maximises revenue. Maximum revenue can’t happen at a sell-out because a sell-out requires there be unmet demand.
So, if the Mariners are selling $8 beers, and they think that by rasing the price to $9 they’ll sell 10% less beer, then they’ll raise the price to $9 (because that’s more than a 10% price increase). However, if they thought beer demand would fall by 15% with a $9 beer, then that price loses them money because they’ve only raised prices by 12.5%.
By Jeff, I meant Sullivan. Sorry.
It’s better to look position by position, trying to make each position better based on total offense + defense
But what if the best choices for each position have no chemistry together?
/ducks
Wait, I think I’ve figured out how to square Sexson = Beer prices with supply and demand drives prices.
1) paying several replacement-level players eight figure salaries causes M’s fans to drink more.
2) demand for beer among M’s fans increases (especially while attending a game, when the M’s are down by 7 runs by the third inning).
3) increased demand for beer causes beer prices to rise.
ergo, Sexson = higher beer prices.
The Women’s Temperance League should march on Lincoln’s office any day now.
109: I wouldn’t get rid of Morse, even with his defensive liabilities. He’s one of those rare finds who has hit over .300 every time he’s been called up (I think). Providing he gets over his injury, I think he’s got at least a few good years if not more. Seeing how hard it’s been for the M’s to find .300 hitters (why is this?) letting him go now would surely guarantee another one of those ‘damn, that guy used to play for us. Why’d we get rid of him?’ moments.
But I think looking at it as “let’s make our defense better†or “lets make our offense better†is the wrong approach. It’s better to look position by position, trying to make each position better based on total offense + defense
A simple way to start is by taking those positions where either the offense or defense is so bad that just about anybody would be better. So, for example, just about anybody would hit bitter than Vidro, and just about any LF would play better defense than Ibanez. Lo and behold, stick Ibanez at DH and all you have to do is find just about anybody who can play LF (which is exactly what Jeremy Reed is, and nothing more). Already you’ve improved the team. Later it gets more challenging.
That’s actually kind of funny, since they’ve used the temperance argument to justify high beer prices before.
155 – I totally agree with you here JustinH. Great analysis in terms of Putz, Ibanez, and Ichiro. Dave, like JustinH, I agree with you on everything except for Betancourt analysis. He is not improving, and seems to be becoming worse.
that has already been confirmed.
well, in the 2007 Fan Cost Index, the Marlins had more expensive beer than the Mariners…
listening to some ranting on the radio– interesting how many people see no dichotomy in complaining that the Mariners are interested in only doing enough to pull in the fans, and then complaining about the vast amounts of money they are spending and the big money FA moves they have made …
With regards to Yuni, WLAD, Lopez, etc., they are servicable players, and can be complementary role players, but they aren’t the “core” Dave was referring to earlier.
They can help the team, but at the same time, they are all players that can be let go, traded, replaced, etc.
This team is HIGHLY overated…stop drinking the kool-aid, watching “Baseball Tonight,” and listening to our home-town media…
There are only a handful of guys on this team that we should mark as “untouchable.”
I like Yuni’s hustle, Lopez’s new approach at the plate, etc., but they’ve had time to prove themselves…if we can get a better upgrade, I’m all for it…
What are your thoughts on LF/RF? Where do we go? What are the odds Reed is out there next year?
jspektor- you are making my morning very entertaining. Thank you. A tip- Please argue that Gavin Floyds 2.92 era is sustainable.
Wow, we’re trying to brainstorm how best to gt the M’s ready for 2009 and it’s now a food fight! OK, a beer fight.
Dave, I completely agree about the core, and I’m glad Beltre is on it, because I think he is very underappreciated here. In my opinion, he is a superior third baseman, and I think the way he plays the game is a good case of leading by example.
I’d be interested in hearing which players on the current roster you think would be effective building blocks around the core. For example, if we assume that Morrow has similar potential to Lincecum, isn’t it likely that keeping him and developing him carries much more potential value than we would be likely to receive in a trade? Do you think Balentien could be a part of the next Mariners playoff team? Since defense is such a problem on this team, other than moving Ibanez, what other positions do you most consider to be a problem?
I also tend to agree that since this team is probably heading for 65-70 wins, it seems unlikely that a playoff team can be built for 2009. If so, is your including Bedard in the core presuming that the M’s will resign him past 2009? It seems to me that his contract status should be an integral part of any rebuilding plan….
Enjoying this post…..hopefully, we’re done discussing beer prices.
Well, the “go after defense” idea relies on it continuing to be undervalued league-wide. To illustrate, let’s give an arbitrary example with made-up numbers, pretending that every position player can be assigned a “run scoring value” and “run prevention value” between 1 and 10, with 10 being the best, which determines their overall contribution to either scoring or preventing runs, which are the two things that determine whether you win or lose a baseball game.
Say you have three players, all at the same position:
Mr. A: Run scoring value 8, run prevention value 7
Mr. B: Run scoring value 9, run prevention value 2
Mr. C: Run scoring value 3, run prevention value 10
Obviously, Mr. A is a stud, and he’s the guy you get if you can. But look at Mr. B versus Mr. C. Right now, the MLB talent market will value Mr. B more than Mr. C, when simple math (9+2 < 3+10) shows that Mr. C will actually help your team win more baseball games.
If defense started being the overvalued commodity, rather than defense, then Mr. B might actually become the good value, but that’s not the current state of the market.
And yes, I know talent evaluation isn’t actually this simplistic, so shut up.
Oh, THAT guy. Besmirching my good name!
(if it’s not obvious by now, I’m messing with you Dave)
162- Morse is one of the overrated players I was just talking about…he has not real place on the team except as a bench player, pinch hitting role-player…
We should have traded him while he was hitting over .400 and didn’t have a torn up shoulder…
I wouldn’t get rid of Morse, even with his defensive liabilities. He’s one of those rare finds who has hit over .300 every time he’s been called up (I think).
Mike Morse hit .278 in half a season, which is the most extended playing time he’s gotten. Hitting .444 in a handful of at-bats last year is as meaningful as the .222 he hit this year. Can we please, please drop the “Mike Morse will continue to hit .300″ myth?
1) Sorry about the triple post…don’t know how that happened…
2) Can anyone tell us why Churchill said over at Prospect Insider the other day that there is NO CHANCE to re-sign Beltre? He said it wasn’t just a “hunch.” If it’s true, that scares the hell out of me.
I’d give it 58.3%
Yes, and I hope you feel better about yourself after that feeble attempt at comedy.
“Hunch” and “NO CHANCE” don’t seem to go together to me. Anyone else have a problem with that?
For those worrying about how we’re going to fill position X or rotation spot Y if everyone is potentially on the block, I’d like to point out Dave’s excellent series over at Fangraphs where looks at this year’s most successful free-talent acquisitions all over the diamond:
Infielders
Outfielders
Starters
Bullpen
Worrying about getting the right pieces back in trade – which I was guilty of about 90 posts up – is mitigated when you see just easily it is to find decent players, especially in the outfield corners, on the cheap.
And I hope pimping Fangraphs work is kosher over here – it is relevant to this discussion.
Folks:
Can we stop using Batting Average as a measure of player value? (and put it in a cave with ERA, fielding percentage, and pitcher wins)
Just stop. If you want to still do it, please step away from the keyboard.
Thanks.
Does anyone think we should stack a whole bunch of Righty’s in our lineup to take advantage of the ballpark?
If the M’s were to commit to rebuilding in a smart way and stop throwing good money at replacement level players, I’d be fine with them trading Putz and Ibanez as part of that overall plan…even if it meant a sub-sixty win season. Of course, this will never happen. Maybe Dave should suggest something that’s wildly counter to what he actually wants them to do, just to see if they do the opposite.
Nah, too dangerous.
I agree with the premise that the team can win in 2009 if they’re just a little smart about it (which would preclude the current FO from making the decisions, but that’s another topic). Specifically, if Putz isn’t with the team, is your thought we find someone internally, or externally in a trade? Who can come in and get us our 40 saves in our 90 win season? Any names you have in mind?
176- He said that there was “No chance” that Beltre would re-sign…he later said that it WASN”T just a “hunch” about Beltre not signing…hinting that he has insider information or something…he sounded 100% sure that Beltre will not stay in Seattle…
I still can’t help to think about everyone complaining that they cant hit in our ball park.
Is there any truth to this?
Well, yeah, the problem is, you may find that your greatest opportunity for improvment is one of those positions where you already made an “easy” fix, and you’re stuck with no good solutions for the holes you have left.
This came up in Dave’s WAR post, but it’s not a linear scale for talent – +4 WAR guys are not twice the price of +2 WAR guys, plus there isn’t a liquid talent pool. If we make a bunch of easy fixes everywhere else and discover that to get to 92 wins, we need Albert Pujols as our firstbasemen, we have a problem because he’s not available. Settling for below average anywhere is dangerous, but really seductive, because below average is sooo easy to get. But if you have three guys who are below average in the lineup (just a little below average), you need a HOFer somewhere else on the field to make up for them.
Did you mean lefties?
This is why I hate the save statistic. You need good relievers but the idea that you need a “closer” is a relatively recent one, and I think it’s mostly myth.
It leads to overvaluing inherently fragile talents; look at guys like Eric Gagne, who have gone from being “elite closers” to struggling to hold onto a job in the space of a couple of years.
J.J. Putz is valuable because he’s an excellent relief pitcher, not because he’s a “closer”.
180- I think we can find a closer in the minors…not as dominating as JJ, but servicable…
Lowe, Corcoran, Bibens-Dirx, etc…
Regarding Clement for Votto, I think the Reds are actually interested in a good defensive catcher, which would pretty much knock Clement out of the discussion. (One more reason why bringing up Clement to DH was incomprehensible. It hugely diminished his trade value.)
It really bothers me that Clement highest value is being trade bait. Why can’t this organization leave him behind the plate? He has so much value as a catcher.
OK….after hearing everyones thoughts, what about this:
Move Ichiro! back to Right, and fill in the rest of the outfield with prospects/trades…
All other positions, including those signed to long contracts are open to negotiations….Ichiro! should be the face of this Organization. He pulls the crowds, both here and away. Put him back in his strength position, and build the rest of the team around that.
The park favors lefties, hitters and pitchers.
We are stuck with Johjima for the next 3 years whether we like it or not. Getting a return on Clement before he shows too many warts should be a top priority.
Actually yes …. hah … I’m sure that helped my cause today.
It seems to me most of the SafeCo killers are lefties … Teixeira seems to hit better from that side of the plate … I do agree he is overrated and not the solution but looking for power from that side of the plate might not be a bad idea.
We are stuck with Johjima for the next 3 years whether we like it or not.
Not really. If someone can figure out a way to trade Jason Kendall to Billy Beane…
We could probably trade Kenji if we ate some of the money…
Wrong again jspektor
In 3500 PA’s
Teixeira vs lefties .277 .366 .530 .896
vs righties .304 .381 .540 .921
If every company could make sure their revenue streams covered their costs, no company would ever report a loss.
Just because Beltre is underrated in general, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t GMs out there that recognize his value. I think that Beltre would fit in perfect in Cleveland this year, and if offered a high level prospect for him I think moving him should be considered.
Lowe, Corcoran, Bibens-Dirx, etc…
Oh my. Lowe as a closer next year makes quiver. I love Corcoran. We need to bring him up again.
So when I went on a tour of Safeco Field several years ago and they said part of why they charge so much for concessions was paying off the cost overruns, that was just a joke?
I remember the guide sounded serious.
Shouldn’t we see the Johjima situation as more “we might have wasted a lot of payroll” rather than “Clement has no future as catcher”? Is he going to stop working on learning to be a catcher because of Johjima’s extension? If Clement at some point is clearly a better catcher I assume he will…The M’s at least understand sunk cost right?
195 – That wasn’t what I was saying. re read my post
I am not looking at his numbers VS pitching … He hits better as a lefty than a righty.
Thanks for making my morning.
193
Kendall had a 400 OBP the two years before coming to Oakland. And I don’t believe Oakland picked up the full salary. When the A’s aquired Kendall it was thought to be pretty good move. Granted it didn’t turn out well but I think this site has discussed evaluating trades afterwards.
Well, yeah, the problem is, you may find that your greatest opportunity for improvment is one of those positions where you already made an “easy†fix, and you’re stuck with no good solutions for the holes you have left.
That’s a reasonable point. The Reed-replaces-Ibanez-replaces-Vidro swap, though, doesn’t really create any barriers to better solutions at those positions. It doesn’t cost anything in terms of either money or talent. If it later improves the team to replace Reed again, or trade Ibanez, that’s just fine.
The problem is more having to anticipate the downstream effects when the improvement doesn’t come to you absolutely free. So it’s more difficult to trade Clement for a major upgrade at some position, say shortstop. Because you won’t be able to use him to plug any other holes, either as a trade chip or by actually playing him at C/DH/1B as needed by other moves you might make.
True. Or you could trade him to the Pirates and not eat some of the money, a la Matt Morris.
#200
Sorry, I made an error in my post. Tex is better hitting righties than lefties. I got those two lines flip-flopped. You were wrong in assuming Tex hits from the left side of the plate better.
200 – scratch that … upon further research i was reading that upside down. he hits better from as a RHB but swings more as a LHB
Re: Texeira as lefty and as righty. This has been a rough comment thread for jspektor, but he was correct on this. Unless he is such a freak that he purposely handicaps his own hitting, then presumably Texeira hits as a lefty against right handed pitching. And since lefties hit better in Safeco, presumably, Texeira would have lots of fun hitting left-handed in the Safe.
Yes, but that fits just fine with the position by position approach. Positional upgrades that emphasize defense will be cheaper than ones that emphasize offense, but you’re still going position by position, so you keep an eye on the total wins you need.
You’re right. Years of bad teams have made us calibrate our bar way too low. Case in point, one Adrian Beltre. He’s a good player, but probably not the second best position player on most true playoff caliber teams. He’s probably roughly average for his position on playoff teams (maybe a little above). He’s really the minimum bar we need to shoot for, but to us, he’s nearly a superstar.
I am going to go watch re-runs of ’95 and cry. love you guys.
Wladimir Balentien is a player the M’s need to move in my opinion. He could be playing in the worse possible home park for his skill set, offensively and defensively. Wlad should have some value being a power hitter with his salary. But if the M’s preferred Wlad over Adam Jones I doubt they’d ever move him.
Re: My last post.
Urgh.
#1) Start the rebuilding in 2009 with Billy Beane as the new GM.
You realize why that can’t happen, right?
Be still my beating heart!
well, at least he spelled Beane right– I keep seeing posts calling for the Ms to hire Billy Bean
pygmalion Says
WHere are your numbers?
Tex hits better vs left hand pitchers and when he is standing in the righthand side of the batters box.
.277/.366/.530/.896 as a left handed batter/vs RHP
.304/.381/.540/.921 as a right handed batter/vs LHP
Not to mention how many of those AB’s hitting as a lefty came at Ranger Stadium which highly favors left hand hitters.
Coasty: You missed the significance of my previous post, “Urgh,” which clearly communicated that I wrote “left-handed” when I meant to write “right-handed.”
But, more to the point, the two sets of numbers that you have posted are exactly opposite of each other. Which is correct? Or are you falling into the same trap I did?
Post 215 is correct. see post #204
Urgh again. Too many comments arriving too quickly here.
I guess that Teixeira isn’t going to have as much fun mashing here as I thought. Although, frankly, his OPS from either side of the plate would be fine with me. So he would still have fun, but not so much.
Seattle’s a progressive town, why not. Billy Bean’s lifetime OPS+ of 55 is even better than Billy Beane’s 48.
I think the Ms need to replace their FO with steelworkers or firemen. I’ve recently seen commercials where that improves stuff.
I’ve seen and heard this a number of times recently as well. Beane is a part owner of the As, which I would think probably precludes him moving on… but how small a part are we talking about? I would assume though (as with any owner) that Beane could sell his share and move on if he so desired.
Giving him an ownership percentage just makes it in his best interest to do everything he can to improve the team (and thus its value).
“I think the Ms need to replace their FO with steelworkers or firemen. I’ve recently seen commercials where that improves stuff.”
Maybe that would improve the chemistry in the FO.
Billy Beane is not going to be the GM here.
Why would Beane leave a team that he runs well, is getting a new stadium, and is in a nice area to live in? To come to Seattle?
Jeff Nye:
Okay, whatever, who replaces Putz’s “value” then? It’s easy to just say a guy like Putz is easily replaceable, but if you’re an actual real-life GM, you better make sure the guy you’re replacing him with is going to be at the same level of “value” or you’re out of a job (unless of course you work for the M’s). I’m just curious who Dave has in mind to replace Putz in this scheme of his.
The park has only been open for 9 years now, was built with a power hitting lefty in mind, and you’re just now uncovering this.
Tremendous investigative reporting, Mr. Cronkite.
Who said Putz was easily replaceable?
Because I sure as hell didn’t.
Read the post. He said they’re all replaceable (Putz, Betancourt, et al). I inferred the “easily,” I guess, but taking that out, he said they’re replaceable. So my question is, in Putz’ case, by whom?
228- Closers are replaceable…we might not find someone as dominant as JJ, but they can be found…usually on the cheap in the minors…
Hopefully this site can maintain it’s image and just go ahead and delete comment #226. 3rd grade retorts are better kept in 3rd grade.
I’ll go one further than this. I’ll be shocked (shocked!) if Bavasi is fired during, at the end of, or even after the season. For all the discussion about the hotseat he’s on, he certainly doesn’t seem to be on one from the ownership, i.e. the folks who actually make the decision. In fact, the more pressure that comes from the fans, I think the more solidified his job is, simply because the ownership is certainly not going to be “one-upped” by the fan base.
Seriously, Bavasi and Sabean are anecdotally considered the worst GMs in all of baseball. Bavasi thrives in a culture that favors as little disruption as possible, and his track record alone should make him feel embarassed amongst his colleagues, yet he doesn’t resign. Nor have I heard anything from Chuck or Howard implying he’s in jeopardy.
I have seen nothing to indicate that Bavasi would ever lose his job over anything happening on the field.
At least we are not evaluating GMs using batting average.
Payroll per se may not affect the price of beer, but payroll plus performance might effect elasticity of demand which in turn….
“Gimme a beer.”
“They’re up to $35 for a Rainier, sir, are you sure?”
“I just paid $75 for a seat, $20 to park and all I got to see was a 1st baseman being paid $24,000 per at bat strike out 4 times. So gimme the beer.”
“Sorry, sir, but while you were waiting the price went up to $45.”
“In that case give me two and I’ll make it up on the volume.”
Okay, but let’s pretend you’re the GM, and you have to have an actual person who can close out games going into 2009, not some theoretical “someone” on cheap from the minors. Who is it? Again, it’s easy to say there’s “someone” out there, but I’m curious who Dave actually has in mind. I’m not challenging him, or questioning the idea, I’m just curious who’s out there who could step in. Be Billy Beane for a second and name some teams you’re going swing a deal with and for what players.
BTW, #234 was in response to 229
With all this talk about cheap, effective closers, somebody should make the obligatory George Sherrill reference.
234- Corcoran, Green, Morrow, RRS, etc.
You don’t have to have a Putz, Rivera, etc. to win the championhsip…
Gagne won the frickin Cy Young as a closer…what championship did the Dodgers get that year?
Lowe or Morrow would be better than Todd Jones who has racked up 40/37/38 saves the 3 years. A closer is the least of our issues.
236- I try not to think about George or Adam Jones…it makes me sad…frickin worst deal ever…
238 *the last 3 years
I agree on your “culture” theory, although that’s hard to prove. As for resigning, I suspect Bavasi thinks he’s doing a good job, regardless of what we think…so it won’t happen. He may also think we’re still close to contending, so why blow things up? OK, now I’m just speculating.
Back to the topic of making the team better in 2009…
What about Nick Swisher? I know he isn’t doing too well right now, but he can play all three positions in the outfield and 1B…switch hitter with power…crazy character that I would LOVE to see in Seatlle (how about the phantom home-run handshakes to Milton Bradley AFTER Bradley was traded?…hilarious)
I know that Chicago has said he isn’t going to be moved, but 1) would they move him if they fall out of the race 2) what would it take to get him and 3) would you guys want him?
Nick Swisher can play center field like Raul Ibanez can play left field, and as you say, he isn’t being moved anyway, so why bring it up?
243-
Because he would be a GREAT upgrade over Sesxon at first…and because the thread was about making the team better…bringing in him would do that…
Sorry I wasn’t goin on and on about beer prices, firing Bavasi, or bringing in Junior…my bad…
oops…”Sexson”…sorry…
Re: Dominant closers. The quality of a team’s relief ace is actually EXTREMELY important to winning in the playoffs. There is a decent correlation between how deep a team goes in the playoffs and the quality of its closer. (Also note that managers use their closers more rationally in the post-season: they no longer restrict them to the ninth inning but tend to use them in high leverage situations in the 6th, 7th, and 8th).
“Lowe or Morrow would be better than Todd Jones who has racked up 40/37/38 saves the 3 years. A closer is the least of our issues.”
Agreed. Bad teams don’t need good closers. We need to tear it down and it will take a few years to build it back up.
Lowe, Morrow, or Rhodes (for now) could become a serviceable closer. I’m thinking that they send Morrow down to become a starter as he’d be more valuable in that role. Bedard, Felix, Silva, Morrow, and Aumont OR even get a starter from someone for Putz. I’m thinking Edwin Jackson or Jeff Niemann would be okay.
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is we play in a pitcher-friendly park BUT in order to get Felix and Bedard to sign long-term, we need to become more defensively-friendly as well.
Ms 2009 starting 1B – Bavasi pulls a major coup and manages to sign Giambi for 4 years and $47m (Doesn’t matter which Giambi, Bavs may not know the difference and the difference is probably negligible at this point anyway.)
$12 beer.
246- I agree that you need a good closer…but for this team, that has SO many holes, it’s not the main concern…Putz is one of my favorite Ms ever…but if we could trade him for a couple of everyday players that will help the team, I’d be for it…
What is the point of having a dominant closer when the team is so bad that they never have the opportunity to pitch because we are down 9-2 in the third inning?
246- “The quality of a team’s relief ace is actually EXTREMELY important to winning in the playoffs”
I would actually settle for a team that was well constructed and competitive every year. Winning in the playoffs is way to far off in the future for myself.
Playoffs? Did he really say Playoffs? Playoffs?
#250..agreed, competitive would be nice.
“Playoffs?!?!?!?!? Playoffs?!?!?!?!?”
Sorry…first thing that popped into my head…
But the same sentiment…this team is not looking at the playoff without major changes…
the Royals just signed HoRam to a minor league deal.
saaaay, if Dave is going to be on at 3:35, that means Gas will have to listen, and maybe learn something, too
Paging Larry Beinfest. . .
Bakomariner, thanks for staying on topic, seriously I appreciate that. I just jumped on the Swisher comment as a symptom of the other problem these threads suffer from, which is randomly throwing names and wishlists out there without much thought as to them being realistic or practically useful toward the team’s construction. I could see some value in Swisher as a Sexson replacement (though it’s not happening), but that’s why I jumped on the part about him playing the outfield.
253- Saw the Ramirez signing a couple days ago too…maybe yesterday…as shitty as he was in Seattle, I’m surprised it took this long for him to catch on somewhere…
Our top priority needs to be a true relief ace; I just want to make sure that we don’t undervalue the position, since our ultimate goal – and really it doesn’t need to take that long – is getting back in the playoffs. Once we are there, there is every reason to try to maximize the number of games we can win. Hence, the problem with Putz is the short shelf-life on most closers. If we could be sure he would be around and dominant in three years I would say keep him and don’t trade him.
Don’t trade for anyone over 27, period. Not with valuable parts at any rate; I have no objections to filling a hole or two with a rent-a-fielder here and there. What I don’t want to see is Putz or Clement going for another big dumb 1B stud like Teixeira who’s going to give us a good year and then fall off a cliff. We don’t want any more $20m cliffs.
Value defense above all. It makes your pitchers better, and it comes cheaper than any other aspect of the game. If we could get three CFs out there again it would be awesome.
Some guys who understand the concept of the strike zone would be a pleasant change.
Ibanez gets “DH or goodbye”, no further discussion period.
And NO GODDAMN TALENTLESS WHITE LOCAL BOY UTILITY BOOBS, no matter how happy they make the KJR crowd. We’re trying to win some baseball games here, people.
Seriously, we’re one star and three underrated regulars away from contending for real.
Urgh. I meant to say, “Our top priority DOES NOT need to be a true relief ace.”
Swisher would be good at 1B or in RF…could be had for a couple prospects and he is young and locked up for a couple of years…I think that if they stop playing over their heads in Chicago and they fall out of the race, Guillen will be fired and they will start to move players…but if he is one to be moved, I don’t know…
That’s got to be the third time I’ve said the exact opposite of what I meant to say in this thread. I think that I’d better just stop saying anything at all before I begin asserting that we need to make certain that Vidro’s option vests and that Ibanez stays in LF. I could never live that down.
259- I was about to jump all over you before you fixed that…lol…
bakomariner: I would have deserved it, too.
As a Reds fan, I’d like us to keep Votto.
How about Bailey and Keppinger for Clement?
Chicago isn’t falling out of the race, they’ll be buyers rather than sellers, whether or not they should be. The 2008 White Sox = 2007 Mariners (in trajectory, not in composition).
265- Good point…probably true…then the next question is what do we have that they want? What prospects or MLB regulars can we get from them for 2009?
Wow, Craiglist is suddenly flooded with tickets for sale for the M’s/Sox series. Really good seats at face or below!
Fans are bailing…
Wouldn’t you want to see the Red Sox, though? I mean, in the “hella fun to watch” category, they are totally up there!
PS I am not a broker and that is not a sales pitch. Just observing the very dramatic, sudden availability of seats to even the best games/series. I guess a breaking point was passed in Detroit.
I’ve said this before, but I would love to see the Mariners develop the rep as “closer U” — developing a guy for the role, having him demonstrate it for a year or two while training his replacement, then flipping him for prospects and starting over. Lather, rinse, repeat. Putz can show Morrow his splitter — Eddy Guadardo’s gift that keeps on giving — and then move on. I’m not wild about Morrow as a closer — not because I don’t think he can do it (see that awesome four out performance he gave against Texas on May 12, even if he gave up the winning HR), but because it would be a waste of a 1st round draft pick. But given that he’s even more of a waste as a setup man, I’ll take what I can get.
Closers are overpriced in the market, and getting an assembly line set up to flip them at a steep markup would be one way to keep the farm system topped up (much as Beane does with starters).
It’s a very reasonable thing to say. I don’t mind hearing it again.
joser,
That’s an excellent idea, I’m almost amazed we don’t see one of the smarter GM’s implementing that already. I’d mark the likelihood of the Mariners being smart enough to do that somewhere ~1%. Nice.
Anyone see on the KJR site on softys page there is a spread sheet thats insane check it out.
And to add to that, count me in the camp that says we should try moving Putz. We’re more likely to get someone starstruck enough by him to give up young talent than with anyone else we have who’s potentially worth trading (everyone but Ich and Felix, IMO), exactly because of that common overvaluing of ‘elite closers’. Outside of Felix, Ichiro, and the suspended youngster Triunfel, it would be nice to be at least somewhat excited about a player at some level of the organization. Aumont, too, I guess, but beyond that, where is this “built-up” farm system I keep hearing about?
Hey, I have a question. What do you think is the trade value of Johjima in spite of the fact he signed an extension?
per Hickey, The Franchise is being skipped this weekend– possibly because they are being extra careful with his calf
Andrew 23. #264 I bet you wouldn’t have given up Bailey at this time last year. Has Bailey really fallen that far out of favor?
Since the Friday game blog thread isn’t up yet:
4:38 p.m. (EST): This from MLB:
New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been suspended for one game and fined an undisclosed amount for his inappropriate actions, which included kicking dirt on Umpire Chris Guccione, during the bottom of the ninth inning of his Club’s game last night against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium. Girardi is scheduled to serve his suspension tonight, when the Yankees host the Seattle Mariners.
Remains to be seen whether the Yankees play better WITHOUT Girardi egging on the hotheads, but this is a great chance to win against a club being run one game by the bench coach.
Essentially that’s been the situation for the past year with the M’s themselves, which SHOULD even the playing field, right?
274 I don’t think Joh has a lot of value. I could see us dumping him to contender if someone goes down with injury. But lets be honest with ourselves, the Mariners are not getting rid of Kenji.
I believe Beane gave this a try for awhile; it was one of the subjects discussed in Moneyball. I’m summarizing from what I remember, but basically, he figured saves were overrated and that any decent relief pitcher could hold a lead in one inning’s work more often than not. So he’d run a guy like Jason Isringhausen out there long enough to rack up saves, then ship him off to another team for a handful of prospects… lather, rinse, repeat.
But maybe he tried this with one pitcher too many; a couple years down the road he ended up with a bullpen that kept blowing leads late in games. He ended up paying prospects (Teahen) for Octavio Dotel to fix the problem, which was interpreted as a sign that he was finally conceding that the closer’s “role” isn’t quite as fungible as he originally thought.
The hilarious ending to the story, of course, is that Dotel stunk, too. Just look at who sponsors his B-R page.
Even playing field… yeah, well, unfortunately ARod is back, and hitting homers (he would’ve had 2 last night if they hadn’t blown the call on one of them).
#275, msb — Hickey also mentions that Silva and Wash will throw this weekend, on three days rest each. And Vidro is batting third tonight. Good times.
Of course, if I had a personal fact-checker, that individual would have pointed out that Isringhausen left as a free agent. Compensatory picks, maybe?
oh, that would never be inappropriate.
The ’07 Jason Kendall trade would make a good comparison:
Kendall
$4.54M (84% of the remaining money on his contract
for
Rob Bowen
Jerry Blevins
In other words, if Kenji had only ONE year left on his contract, we could expect something like a decent relief prospect in return. That is, if we also paid almost all of his salary.
To put it more succinctly, nothing.
RE: Felix, it was written somewhere (I think the Times), that the M’s have made some efforts to get him signed long-term, but Felix doesn’t want to. Sounds like he’s confident (and why not) and wants to go to free agency. (And with the direction of the team, why would he want to?).
Jayson Stark. FWIW< his agents said they were willing to listen when the subject came up this spring.
Ah, yes, it was Stark. And I’m glad they’re willing to listen. It gives me some hope. Thanks msb.
I think Felix wants them to pony up a bit more money than a couple million a year….
Counter the M’s falling ticket values with the fact that I just paid $92 for $28 CF bleacher seats at Fenway for a sold out game against Texas in August.
Way to go M’s.
I’m all for blowing this thing up – honestly should have been done a long time ago when Edgar retired – team got old and we had the village idiot in here trying to plug in replacements with no ability at all to judge talent, as well as blowing decisions on letting guys go with no compensation. Not to mention that the Morrow over Lincecum decision was just clueless. Come on – local kid – filthy stuff – big numbers on a good team in a good conference. Now we have a marginal middle reliever with command issues and they have a stud starter with the #3 ERA in the NL.
I trade any and all of the vets with value and suck up the fact that we’re goign to be on a 2-3 year down cycle.
Of course, I don’t trust the FO to execute any of this.
How can it be a 2-3 year down cycle when we’re already six years into it?
At the risk of having this post deleted for sacrilege, why does Ichiro have to be untouchable? I think his trade value may outweigh his production going forward. He has no secondary skills and is bound to decline, fantastic conditioning or not. What if in 2010 he hits an empty .280 and can’t cover as much ground in center? I don’t think that is at all unlikely.
Ichiro’s great and essentially unique, but I think it would be foolish to assume he isn’t subject to the same decline curve as everybody else. His value is tied up to a large degree in his legs, and they will fail him at some point.
yeah, I think the plan was to sneak into the playoffs and then ride Bedard and Hernandez to the Series…hell, it worked for the ’05 Astros, who had a similarly old and anemic offense. The M’s are anemic-er, though. And the horrid defense isn’t helping.
Dave, I just had a chance to read this. Dear God, are you suggesting an organizational philosophy? I mean, other than buying high and expecting career years? No wonder I love this site so much. Thanks.
Defense is my favorite part of the game and “undervalued” seems like an understatement right now. I suspect as we get further from the steroid-induced HR-fests, it will take its rightful place again. Build on defense and besides helping pitchers, you may be gathering a talent that will be more highly valued over the next few years.
Some ideas:
1. Trade Putz to the Rays for J.P. Howell, Reid Brignac, & Dan Johnson.
2. Ibanez to the Tribe for Aaron Laffey & Jensen Lewis.
3. See what it takes to get Mike Hollimon & Ryan Raburn from the Tigers. Not much, most likely.
Howell & Laffey move into the rotation next year, giving you a formidable rotation.
Brignac becomes your starting SS, a building block for the future.
Dan Johnson provides league average offense at DH or 1b on the cheap.
Raburn & Hollimon compete for the 2b job, and in Raburn’s case possibly an OF job, although I’ll confess I don’t know about his defense. In any event, both provide good multi-positional bench options in the worst case scenario.