Bavasi Blissfully Unaware Of Real Analysis
From Baker’s notes of a conference call Bavasi had with reporters a little while ago.
“This is not a field managerial issue,” he said. “John is doing a good job. Our performance is not related to his work. It’s purely related to player performance and underperformance and underachievement. Nobody had the nerve to pick us less than second place in our division. We were picked anything from first to second to wild-card. You name it. The expectations were a heck of a lot higher than this, based on any analysts’ evaluation of out players’ individual track records and their age. Their ages are such that they’re not all young guys that they’re inexperienced. But they’re not too old to believe that they would backslide. So, I think those expectations are realistic. They were and they are.”
My official prediction: 83-79, one game better than Texas, nowhere close to the playoffs.
PECOTA projections: 76-86, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs.
ZIPS projections: 72-90, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs
CHONE projections: 83-79, nowhere close to the playoffs
Hardball Times projections: 79-83, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs.
Lots of people had “the nerve” to tell you that you did a horrible job building this roster, Bill. Lots of people pointed out that this team wasn’t a contender. Lots of people told you that you that you had a roster setup for failure, with collapse potential everywhere. You just don’t listen to those people, because they’re nerds with computers who don’t understand baseball. Or something.
But you don’t get to rewrite history. We knew this team wasn’t good, and we spent the entire offseason trying to tell you that. You ignored us at your own peril, and you built a terrible baseball team for $117 million. That’s your fault.
And now, rather than learning from your mistakes, admitting that you have absolutely no idea how to evaluate pitching talent, you’re completely ignorant of how to value defense, you don’t know what kinds of hitters work in your own park, and realizing that there’s an entire school of analysis that could help improve the decision making of the club, you’re once again focusing on things like clubhouse leadership and character.
This is ridiculous. Build a good baseball team, and you won’t have to talk about all this psycho babble crap that you guys invent to try to justify your horrible decisions. Learn more about baseball than a blogger who lives 2,500 miles from Safeco Field and covers the team as a freaking hobby. I shouldn’t know more about how to build a baseball team than you, but I do, and that’s why you and your entire staff deserve to be fired.