Necessary Records
Winning % needed by M’s to finish one game ahead of Los Angeles in a few different scenarios, and the Angels corresponding win% needed to finish with one less win than listed.
90 wins: .663 (69-35), .524 (54-49)
91 wins: .673 (70-34), .534 (55-48)
92 wins: .683 (71-33), .544 (56-47)
93 wins: .693 (72-32), .553 (57-46)
94 wins: .702 (73-31), .563 (58-45)
If you think the Angels play just over .500 ball the rest of the way, then the M’s only have to play about as well as the 1928 Yankees the rest of the way to beat LA by one game (assuming Oakland doesn’t win 91). If you think the Angels will play a little worse than they’ve played so far, but still be about what we expected them to be before the season, then the M’s need to play more like the 1927 Yankees.
Either way, the conclusion is obvious – trade for Babe Ruth.
But but but….2001! And then, the 2005 Astros! Right? And, don’t forget 1995! ZOMG 1995!!!
Sigh, this team just depresses me.
Sadly, even Babe Ruth’s skeleton would probably out-perform Turbo at DH. Putting him in the field could be a challenge, though.
Interestingly, the only person with a better single season OPS than Babe Ruth just happens to be available.
Or just trade for Griffey. [deleted, Griffey hijack]
Ruth? He’d just kill rallies and clog up the basepaths.
I don’t even have the will to head off attempts to derail entirely unrelated threads into more Griffey trade speculation, anymore.
I assumed speculative trades for Babe Ruth the green flag for fun.
But you brought it up as a serious suggestion! You lose.
Adam Dunn? I don’t know about signing a National League first baseman who has a fair share of home runs and a ton of strikeouts to a multi-year deal. Seems like we’re getting burned by one of those right now.
I suppose the reference to the B.H.B gave me away. Oh you sharp blade you.
I like the Ruth deal. And get him to take Silva’s spot in the rotation.
Indeed Ruth’s bat would improve the offense. Is that off topic jeff?
s.e.a.s.o.n is o.v.e.r.
time for next year. time to start talking about ways to fix up our team for a run next year. I think it would be great to see a list made by USSM moves to be made by the F.O. between now and the end of the year.
I’ll start –> Brandon Morrow from RP to SP starting NOW.
That leads me into draft week … let’s forget about our current bums and try and bring in some young winners.
Hi ho, Captain Obvious here to tell you what should be done about the Mariners. Start by getting rid of any players who most represent the stench of failure on this team.
i.e. Sexson, Vidro, Washbum and Batista
Next we see who we have currently in AAA and AA that could help us in ‘09 along with inserting Morrow into the starting rotation.
Then fire Chuck Armstrong and Bill Bavasi, and bring in either as President/GM (in order of priority):
1. Terry Ryan
2. Larry Beinfest
3. Brian Cashman
4. Omar Minaya
5. Paul Depodesta
6. Chris Antonetti
7. Wayne Kirvisky
Wild Card: Kim Ng
The new GM shall then decide the fate of John McLaren and then construct a National League style roster intelligently from there.
We can’t do the ‘05 Astros turnaround, but maybe we can do the ‘08 Rays turnaround. You never know if people are finally fired from this front office and the right people are hired.
I’m with you #14. They must be weighing the options right now, I mean the have to be right? If they kept Mac and Billy we can be pretty sure next year will be more of the same. All these lineup shifts, players up and down, trying different things, most of this crap is stuff that is supposed to be figured out before the season starts.
I dunno…I think if there’s not a new GM next year I would just tune them out. But the general public is what they are more interested in, not the rabid fans. It wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t do anything. Unless attendance gets under 10,000 per game fairly regularly they’ll probably just throw more money at a media blitz and keep selling us the same garbage.
wow, both Dave AND DMZ with the jokes tonight. I’m loving the wit.
14- I’m not really a fan of Krivsky. I suppose if you’re thinking in terms of who the Mariners could realistically get for their front office who doesn’t represent a major philosophical overhaul, he’s probably the best guy. He definitely has a good eye for undervauled talent (Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton), but the reliever fetish worries me (Francisco Cordero signing, ridiculous trade for Bray/Majewski). He strikes me as the kind of GM who can get a team into contention but doesn’t have the ability to sustain it.
It really doesn’t matter. Maclaren has already said he intends on going in to win every game. The outfit is bullheaded and near sighted. They might decide to give up in late August. By then the market will shrink The suckatude of most of the players will become more obvious and we’re stuck with a plate full of crap.
#15:
After 5 years of Bavasi, I think A LOT of the general public would fizzle out and hit a wall.
There are A LOT of good baseball fans in this market, but they always want one of two things: hope or a winner aside from the great ballpark experience.
If Howard Lincoln sends the message that limitless stability is the answer, then he is going to find that this franchise’s fanbase is going to deteriorate quickly.
Believe me, the only reason fans are still paying good money for tickets at this point is because fans want to see the young kids like Lopez, Clement, Betancourt, Morrow, etc. play so they can look forward to next year because there is a decent young core in place right now and could only get better next year if a smart GM and manager take the reigns of this franchise.
Think about it, until Griffey showed up in 1989, what did this fanbase have to look forward to on the field? That along with the fact that the Kingdome is a crappy place to watch baseball in the summer is a big reason why in the ’80’s this team drew flies.
And it’s that same feeling of hopelessness that has made the Orioles attendance go down the tubes the last ten years thanks to Peter Angelos.
I just wish as the Mariners cherish the value of stability that they could realize literally a couple really good job interviews could save them a lot of grief and turn this franchise around.
I wish this were like basketball, where there are years when you know in advance that there is a Tim Duncan or a Kevin Durant out there, so that tanking a season would be worthwhile. But since the draft happens mid-season next year for this year, and the next Griffey or A-Rod may be still a 16-year old junior in high school, there isn’t even that reason to tank a season. And this crew would likely pick someone who would make Al “Choo Choo” Chambers seem like Babe Ruth.
Don’t we have enough corpses on this team?
20 – There is plenty of reason to tank this season for the #1 pick. You should check out a certain right handed pitcher from San Diego State…
Dead zombie baseball players?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/23032267@N00/286547101/
No, this crew actually drafts pretty close to awesome. Their one weakness as far as I know is their unwillingness to sign over slot (pay more for a player than is recommended for the slot of #1, #2, etc.).
By all means, tank the season and pick up the strike out machine from SDSU.
Unless Babe Ruth really is available.
We could technically still win the division by playing like the ‘27 Yanks, but….whoops! We have a problem here-
‘27 Yanks #3 and #4 hitters-
Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig
‘08 Mariners #3 and #4 hitters-
Jose Vidro and Rauuuuuuuul Ibanez
I think this speaks for itself.
24 -
If you are into gambling, I think betting against the worst teams in baseball (probably San Diego and Seattle, maybe Colorado) would be quite profitable.
At least some of those teams will all but throw games in order to have the worst record in baseball and thus grab that pitcher.
Well, Barry Bonds is arguably better than Babe Ruth and he’s at least still alive and a free agent…
But you know that if the M’s gave up Triunfel and Clement for Babe Ruth, they wouldn’t give him any playing time since his first name, “Babe,” implies that he’s a shiny prospect — not a washed-up veteran. And with his killer OBP skills, he would be criticized for not being aggressive enough.
At least there’s the makings of a really good wild card race in the American League.
Sigh.
Ruth is a better fit for SafeCo. He’s used to cavernous playing environments. Plus, the undead are scary, and no one would be willing to tag him out.
I’d settle for Ty Cobb but the ghosts won’t let him play.
Also, the M’s like washed up pitchers, and that makes the Babe just about perfect, doesn’t it? He has the World Series pitching record that Rizzs could bring up every time he entered the game as a reliever for Washburn or Batista.
Ruth was available, but Bavasi declined he was unwilling to give up Cairo and felt the Babe had character issues that would cause clubhouse problems.
22 – “There is plenty of reason to tank this season for the #1 pick. You should check out a certain right handed pitcher from San Diego State…”
Pedro Alvarez pitches for San Diego State?
Alas, there are not even any silver linings in the M’s continuing to be terrible this year. As I understand things, Stephen Strasburg is just completing his sophomore year and does not turn 20 until July, and thus is ineligible for the draft this year.
But, of course, perhaps the M’s might enjoy a little regression, Bavasi, Howie, Chuck, and McLosin’ will all be credited and thus be retained, and the M’s can be dead last again NEXT year.
Then Srasburg will be ours and it’ll be back to the glory days….
Our record this year will influence our draft position in June of NEXT year.
Ahh, yes, Virginia there ARE silver linings….
Personally, I think this is the player we should be looking to acquire.
The modern equivalent of Babe Ruth is available.
What? Assuming Oakland could win the division or even be better than the Mariners?
Remember February 2008? Four long months ago? Four months before the A’s were ten games ahead of the Mariners and three and a half off the Angels’ pace, a third of the way through the season?
Some February quotes, left unattributed out of kindness:
“I can’t help but laugh my ass off about those results. I can’t say there’s something wrong with the way it was done or even that the results aren’t accurate, but I’d put my money on:
1. The A’s not winning the division
2. The over of 77 wins for the M’s
3. The over even if you pushed it to 80…
This is the only statistical analysis I’ve seen on win projection that has the M’s significantly under 85 wins. It seems to me if I choose to agree with this I also choose to disregard all the others. Not willing to do that.”
“The fact that these projections have the A’s as the favorite in the division instead of the Angels just shows the fallacy in the whole deal. If these projections have Oakland as the division favorite, which is in most people’s opinions, flawed, why should we believe these projections will be close to accurate for how the M’s are going to do this year? What a joke.”
“Completely agreed #8. As soon as I read that the A’s are favored to not only top the M’s but the Angels as well, I pretty much disregarded the simulations.”
“And the whole point that Oakland has a better chance of winning the west over Seattle is just laughable. That right there lends a factor to just how broken modeling can be.”
“Go ahead, laugh your heads off at my expense, but I don’t care. The Seattle Mariners 2008 are better than the Oakland A’s 2008.
And when you get done with your snickering, I have a proposition to make. If anybody cares to wager which team has the better record in 2008 I’m willing to give you all the action you can afford.”
Anyone still laughing?
Arrr, the laws of physics be a harsh mistress. – Bender on Futurama
Could be equally well said regarding statistical models.
Wish I had the foresight to lay done a few thousand with
Aubuthis poster.38 – The same sort of people had the same sort of views — in reverse — on Tampa this year, resulting in Common Wisdom (and Sports Center) tagging the Rays as merely promising.
But what’s worse isn’t just that some (quite a few, actually) fans want to hang onto those hoary old clubhouse intangibles for what makes a great team… but how it’s blindingly obvious that the M’s FO just isn’t to be bothered in learning the New Math.
[headsmack] what a maroon.
you just know Bavasi will trade Clement for “Babe the pig” DVD and throw in truinfel to make sure we dont get outbid.
I’ll root for Barry Bonds, but I think my limit for ignoring personal odiousness balks at the idea of cheering Ty Cobb.
Yikes. Anybody get a piece of that?
As long as we are talking about loses.
On pace for the charter member of the $100m/100 losses club. That needs to get someone fired.
Went to the Rainiers game Monday night….
Naturally, Clement hit a homer. It was a great at-bat in the 8th, fouled off a bunch of pitches before pulling one over the right field wall.
The biggest surprise was Yung Chi Chen, the 2nd baseman. He hit a homer to left that must have traveled over 400 feet, and Chen isn’t a big man.
On a sour note, O’Flaherty got rocked in releief and looked very uncomfortable on the mound.
I know you guys have talked about it before, but it was a good deal. $9 general admission and $5 parking…
Actually, he was a NRI, but he “took a wrong turn at Albuquerque.”
(Interesting, these euphemisms. “Cleaning my truck,” “Carrying luggage down the stairs,” “falling off a bar stool”)
it was up the stairs, thus increasing the difficulty quotient.
Hmmmm… Who’s like Babe Ruth, only without the “dead” thing? Barry Bonds? If only he were available in some kind of trade. What’s that you say? He’s a free agent? Well, unless Bavasi works out a way to send six top prospects to free agency in exchange for Bonds, it ain’t happening.
The optimism for redeeming the season won’t abate from the M’s org anytime soon. There are too many tickets left to sell. That alone will keep them from giving up anytime soon. However, some of the moves we talk about wouldn’t necessarily be giving up and looking ahead to 2009, they could as easily be trying to improve for the current season, so we can still hope for changes.
As far as the win % needed to catch the Angels, I’d throw in some % figures for 89, 88, 87, even 86 wins. Sure it means the A’s getting caught too, and the Angels would have to play below .500 in some cases, but that’s more realistic than the M’s playing like the old Yankees.
Wait a minute, Edgar and Boone are available – they could turn into the 2001 Mariners!
46 – that is outrageously depressing – but well deserved. hopefully Sexson wont be a member of the 100/100 club (100 k’s and less than 100 hits).
What a loser.
Bring on ‘The Babe’ cause I’m sure he’ll have mass cases of South Pacific,
SP Lager and Niugini Ice! YEAH BABY!!
A guy who refuses to pay child support and tries to lie his way out of it on Judge Judy is a loser. Richie Sexson simply isn’t a very good baseball player anymore.
I see Josh Hamilton has bumped Ichiro! to third in the AL AS voting …
it was up the stairs, thus increasing the difficulty quotient.
So that’s why he got such a high score from the East German judge!
I was kind of wondering about Bavasi’s record as GM when he was with the Angels. I knew that he has never GM’d a playoff team. What I didn’t know is that he has never had a team finish 3rd, either!
Angels (1994-1999): 4th, 2nd, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th
M’s (2003-2008): 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, sure looks like 4th.
So, in 11 years, five 2nd’s, 6 4th’s. Assuming that we finish 4th again this year, that’ll be 7 last-place finishes in 12 years as a GM.
But he’s averaging third place. And dropping.
The M’s are 21-37, .362, which projects out to 58-104. With a $118M payroll, that projects out to $2M/win. That’s Yankees territory. In fact, Yankees $/win the last five years:
2007 … 2.02M
2006 … 2.01M
2005 … 2.19M
2004 … 1.82M
2003 … 1.51M
And note that’s evidence of deep pockets, not bad play: those Yankees teams won well over 90 games each of those seasons. No other team in the history of baseball has wasted that much money in pursuit of fewer wins; the next highest is the 66 win 2003 Mets (1.78M/win) and last year’s 72 win White Sox ($1.51M/win). Spending $2M per win and not reaching even 60 wins would be some kind of spectacular new benchmark in inefficiency.
And frankly, I don’t think the M’s are that bad. I’d like to think they could still pull it together and reach .500, but that’s an increasingly distant prospect. To do that, they’d have to go 60-44 (.577) the rest of the way, which doesn’t sound that difficult unless you’ve been paying attention to the litany of incompetence this team has been demonstrating so far this year.
I would be totally stunned if the M’s made it back to .500 this year. It’s more likely that they’ll lose 100 games….