The trade value post
During yesterday’s game thread, I mentioned that I might try and crank out a giant trade value megapost, and someone mentioned “won’t you get depressed putting “no value” over and over?”
And that’s pretty much what happened. In response, I’m scaling back my ambitions.
Hitters with value:
Ichiro. Don’t. Just don’t. Ichiro’s why I tune in every game, why I still drag myself to Safeco to buy tickets. Don’t do this to me.
Ibanez. Including his defense, he’s a wash in spacious Safeco Field’s left, but you might be able to mitigate somewhat in a smaller park. Generally, though, you’re looking to move him to a team that needs a LH DH. His contract, in its last year at $5.5m, makes him an attractive pickup for a team that wants the stretch drive help. So who could use him? Unfortunately for our purposes, the teams you can see contending and needing an upgrade at DH are more likely to hold out hope for their current guys (like Sheffield, for instance). Similarly, I don’t see a team with an LF hole they might swap Ibanez in at.
Beltre. He’s got another year at $12m on his contract. Here’s a really interesting one to think about. First, we’ve been arguing for ages that Beltre’s been a fine signing, a bargain when compared to what his peers are getting, but because his defense is largely unappreciated and that first year was such a drop from his 04 it created this whole “Beltre’s contract was a bust” belief that seems to circle endlessly around the national baseball media circles. And we’ve seen articles with anonymous front-office types claiming he’s not a good pickup (or whatever) — though I’d encourage everyone to always heavily discount those kind of blind quotes for reasons that should be obvious — and if there’s a perception in front offices that he’s overpaid, that’ll affect his trade value.
Smart teams though will recognize the potential value and may see opportunity — you get him for the stretch and you get the 09 year which is still a good deal — and with so many teams out of the bidding, maybe it doesn’t take much. But then what teams are smart, need a third base upgrade, and willing to take on that kind of salary? I don’t see a good fit.
Lopez. This is very nearly the opposite of the Beltre argument. Now we’re looking for a team that likes the high average and doesn’t see (or doesn’t care about) the defensive questions. He’s got three more really cheap years if you count the team option (seriously, it’s $1.6m in 09, $2.3m in 10, and a $4.5m option for 11)(actually, it may be more than that, but that’s complicated and it’s still cheap). The problem is that you’re still looking for teams that need a second base upgrade. Cano’s collapse in New York might open that door, but it’s hard to believe that as unbalanced and crazy as that team is they’d give up on Cano like that. Would the Mets give up on Castillo as they try to get back into it? I don’t see a huge market here, either.
(and Clement, but they’re not trading Clement if they’re rebuilding)
Hitters with potential valueL
Betancourt. He’s young, undeniably talented, and can hit some — why, just look at last year’s line! Sure, his defense went from great to abhorrent, but pay no attention to that. We’d like to get out from under his contract before he puts some more weight on and gets even less mobile, and you, uh, you have a good conditioning coach and nutritionist on hand you think he’ll listen to. It’s a perfect match.
Reed. He’s had two great years in the PCL and he’s cuffed pitchers around since he came up, which might validate those performances in the eyes of some teams that would otherwise have dismissed him. There’s always some attraction too in former top prospects who seem to be coming back into glory. Plus, unlike Ibanez, he’s not defensively limited.
Hitters without trade value:
Sexson. Expensive and worthless. Even if they have some brain parasite that makes them deranged and impulsive, they’ll give up nothing.
Vidro. Expensive and worthless. Expensive and worthless. Even if they have some brain parasite that makes them deranged and impulsive, they’ll give up nothing.
Johjima. Expensive and no one’s going to trade for a catcher hitting this badly, just signed to an extension and in the process of losing his job.
Bloomquist. He’s a good enough spare part, but no team’s going to give up anything of importance when they almost certainly have someone somewhere in their system that can provide the same skills for free.
Oh yeah, and Burke.
Pitchers with value:
Felix. This is difficult for me to say, but this might be the best time ever to trade Felix. If the M’s can get a huge haul in blue-chip prospects, it’s worth thinking about. Felix is a tremendous talent, but we’re a couple years in seeing him at the major league level and in a way we’re asking the same questions we did about Garcia in the day. Felix’s best pitch isn’t his fastball, as we saw with Freddy, but over and over he chooses not to go with his best pitch to get outs, insisting on trying to throw the fastball. This year we’ve seen his game take a big step back in every way but the most widely accepted stats like ERA. I worry he’s not ever going to learn to harness his ability, and we’ll see exactly that Garcia path.
Yet the perception of Felix as a rising star is as strong as ever, and his superficially impressive stats make people drool.
Set aside plausibility for just a second and just consider this. Tampa Bay calls tomorrow and says “Did you read what Hank Steinbrenner just said about us? We’ve been up all night drinking Red Bull and planning revenge and we are going to mess that guy up. We’re making a run at this thing, and we want Felix. We’ll give up Evan Longoria, two of our ML-ready mid-rotation guys, and one of our top pitching prospects — take your pick. Come on, help us stick it to the Yankees.”
That’s how it was pitched to me. And If you’re like me, you didn’t have a ready answer, and you’re going to have a lot of confusing and dismaying thoughts for a while. I was surprised my answer wasn’t an immediate “no” when confronted that way, and the more I thought about it… I know, but there it is: the M’s are so deeply screwed right now, my worries about Felix are substantive enough, and his value is high enough that there are trades I’d make for Felix and, what’s more, those trades may well be out there this coming month.
Bedard. Sure, call him inconsistent, fragile, a baby, a horrible interview. He can pitch, and he can be a legitimate ace. Teams making the playoff charge may well look to that as a gamble with a huge potential payoff. Plus, you can always do the PTBNL thing, where they say “We’ll give up two decent prospects for him now. If he does well and we get to the playoffs where he does well, you can pick a guy off list A. If he does well and we miss the playoffs, list B. If he pitches horribly, list C.” Plus he’s cheap.
Pitchers with possible value:
Washburn. He’s got another year on his deal and he’s not very good but he’s left-handed, an innings-eater and so on, and there could be teams out there that get fooled into thinking he’s turned it around. Please, let there be teams that get fooled.
Pitchers with no value:
Batista. Not right now, that’s for certain.
Silva. There’s no rescue from this deal.
And I’m assuming that they won’t consider moving Morrow, and the young pitchers who’ve been effective in the pen (like Green, and Lowe) won’t be moved either. Rhodes possibly, but I don’t see that either.
I feel about Felix the way you do about Ichiro! He’s the only reason for me to watch the club. Trading him would get rid of that every 5th game where I’m fascinated.
I just don’t get why you guys don’t want to trade Ichiro. Aren’t you guys all about building a good baseball team, not sentimentality and playing veterans? Isn’t that doubly true if we’re rebuilding? If our team is rebuilding, then it shouldn’t it just rebuild? I think you guys overrate Ichiro, but he is a very good player. That doesn’t change anything. If we’re rebuilding, what do we need a good, but old and expensive player for? What value does he bring to our team? Will we lose 98 games instead of 100 because of him? Yeah maybe. So what? I just don’t see how you can think hanging on to an aging expensive player will be more valuable to our franchise than having three good, cheap, young players. Do you think he brings in enough business to justify his contract? Is that it? If that’s it, I guess I understand. If you just think having him helps the team contend, then I’m lost.
On another note, how can you think he’s fun to watch? Like I said, he’s a good player, but to me, he’s about as boring as it gets. He doesn’t dive, he doesn’t hit for power, and he doesn’t walk. I get why he doesn’t dive and I know that hitting for power isn’t everything, but that’s fun to watch. Also, I like watching guys with good plate discipline who lay off close pitches and wait for something to drive and earn walks, but I think I’m in the minority there. Anyways, I don’t see how anyone can think slapping hard groundballs between the shortstop and the third baseman is exciting.
Wouldn’t Putz be a chip (even if it isn’t until the off season before he could be traded)?
I would’ve normally said the same thing about Felix that you said about Ichiro, but you bring up a good point. There could be enormous value for Felix, not just for his talent, but also how incredibly low his salary is right now. And I would enjoy seeing Felix on the Rays slaughtering the Red Sox and Yankees x number of games a year.
Would a better pitching coach help Felix reach his potential, like one that doesn’t think it’s important to establish the fastball?
Ichiro is a freak of nature and takes care of himself better than probably anyone else in the league. No way any interested team would properly value that, which is one reason he would never get the kind of value in return that trading him would warrant. I think teams would look at his numbers this year and see a post-peak former MVP on the decline and be scared away from giving up too much young talent.
I don’t think Ichiro is going to decline more than about half or two-thirds as fast as a normal star outfielder, and I take him completely at his word that he wants to and could successfully pitch a few years down the road. There are more than enough baseball and roster construction reasons not to trade him, let well alone the Japanese market and other business reasons to hang onto him tightly.
BavasiIchiro is part of the solution. He is not part of the problem.And what did Steinbrenner say about the Rays?
I have to agree with zzyxx in part and DAMellen in concept alone. I love watching Felix. I love watching Ichiro. But Ichiro, to me anyway, is clearly the more trade-ready player.
Unlike Felix, Ichiro has harnessed baseball totally and completely. He knows exactly what his strengths are. He’s arguably the best leadoff combo of average and speed. Furthermore, he’s exactly the type of player I could see GMs saying “If we just had X we would be a contender now” about. The Yankees don’t have a leadoff hitter other than Damon, who can’t seem to stay healthy. Tampa really doesn’t either (other than Iwamura, but he would fit well in an 8-9 hole in that offense). There’s no doubt that plenty of teams would bet the farm if they thought they could get Ichiro.
From the M’s position, trading Ichiro could give closure to an era of futility. Let me say this again: I LOVE ICHIRO. He’s one of the best contact hitters of all time. He’s an amazing defender. He’s probably the most graceful player I’ve ever seen. On the other hand, there’s no doubt players on the M’s clash with his personality because he’s so quiet, speaks another language, feels he is above the team concept (which he probably is), etc.
It just seems like trading Ichiro could give us a boat load of talent. As much as it hurts to admit it, I would be willing to take that one for the team.
On Felix, I have the same initial reaction. Dismay at the thought of him being gone. That said, we are nowhere near putting a WS-caliber team around him. The thing that scares me is him bolting for more money in a bigger market in a few years, not so much for those reasons alone as for the fact that he knew in his heart they’d never build a winner around him here. I guess it falls under “never say never.” When you think Longoria, Jackson, Sonnenstine, and a prospect or two, then it starts to sound a little more reasonable. When you think of passing something like that up, you know, after the offer just falls in your lap, and then seeing Felix walk right after playing out of club control in another 88-loss season, then it starts to seem like a life raft.
w/r/t Ichiro: I don’t think it’s particularly relevant to his trade value, and in a world where I have no emotional attachment to the team, I’d have written that up.
And I’ve always admitted that I’m not rational about my appreciation and attachment to Ichiro. It’s something you just have to accept from me. We’re not robots. I recognize that I can’t reasonably talk about trading Ichiro, and I step aside.
I also don’t think they should, or will, but that’s a whole other topic.
Sorry.
I agree with #1, Felix is one of the few reasons why I still follow this season. I know rebuilding is going to be long, but why shouldn’t Felix, with his cheap contract (now) be part of that solution. The M’s have shown willingness to spend money. Now, if they spend it wisely (like Antonetti would probably do) would I be wrong to think this team could be back in contention in three years? Felix is still young. I don’t think the door on his prime is near closing.
I guess my point is, if the team is going to rebuild, why get rid one arguably their strongest pillar in the process?
The point of the original post is that if you can get, say, three strong pillars instead of one, that’s something you absolutely have to think about.
Felix is currently my favorite athlete on the planet. Please don’t suggest things like that again.
Ever.
Seriously man, I wouldn’t do that to you.
Keep never-will-be-great-again Ichiro but Trade probably-great-soon Hernandez? Crackness.
Let me get this straight…
The Mariners are in dire need of a rebuild and you would rather trade a 22 year old ace more over a 34 year old out-of-position right fielder that is showing evident declining skills?
That makes zero sense if the ultimate goal is to win baseball games.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t deal Ichiro either unless the team can get good value for him. But to say he’s untouchable on the current team is poorly thought out.
I didn’t say he was untouchable.
And this reductionism to Felix-as-young-ace ignores the larger concerns I was trying to touch on in the post.
There is no evidence of this.
#11
“The point of the original post is that if you can get, say, three strong pillars instead of one, that’s something you absolutely have to think about.”
Same for Ichiro. If they can get 1 or 2 strong, young players plus a handful of other prospects with potential, the Mariners would be stupid to not consider it.
Again, I’m not arguing that’s not the case.
My point is that just thinking about it feels like someone’s driving a fiery spike into my brain. It’s like others feel about the thought of trading Felix. I can’t deal with it now.
That’s all.
Isn’t giving up a talent like Felix or Ichiro the kind of hard decisions that successful GM’s will do? I know this kind of question very much hinges on who this team actually hires for its GM? But in general, those two guys could reap a lot of rewards if traded. I would hate to see it happen, but the future is where we are looking, and it seems to me that the future could possibly be brighter with what we can get back for them.
Felix could potentially get you a lot better return than Ichiro, and Derek is right; while Felix has much more talent than Freddy Garcia did, he’s also at the same stage of “occasionally brilliant but not quite reaching his potential”.
Which might just be part of Felix’s mental makeup, and might not be fixable.
What is Ichiro going to realistically get you in a trade?
While those of you who are saying that Ichiro is showing “evidently declining skills” couldn’t be more wrong (hint: read that LL post that Benne linked and look at his BABIP), his skillset has always been undervalued in the league and will be further undervalued right now because of exactly that flawed perception that he’s in decline.
Ichiro is still awesome, and he doesn’t have the potential to get you franchise-changing talent in a trade like Felix would.
I say this as someone who thinks both players are seriously awesome, and I’d hate to see Felix go; but if Tampa Bay calls with that trade Derek describes in his post, I think you have to pull the trigger.
What about the potential to trade Raul the Rays?
In regard to Felix and his obstinacy in pitching fastball after fastball:
Or is it his obedience to his pitching coaches? Does anybody know? The answer could indicate whether he’s on a Garcia track or simply doing what he’s told (i.e., that he’s open to suggestion).
Also, does anybody know if Hernandez has pitched inside a lot more often since Stottlemyre became the pitching coach? [As you may recall, this was one of the things that Stottlemyre wanted his staff to do.] This again would indicate that Hernandez is still in a process of development and isn’t simply being stubborn.
Knowing the answer to questions such as these would have a lot to do with whether I would accept that trade as proposed by DMZ.
I was thinking that Sexson and Vidro aren’t exactly the same thing. If they were both FAs right now, Sexson would probably get signed to a minor league or pro-rated MLB minimum contract by someone. Vidro on the other hand – I can’t see anyone signing him to do anything.
With that in mind, I wonder if you could move Sexson if set your mind to it. Clearly you’d have to eat a huge amount of his salary and you’d get basically nothing in return. Which is the same as releasing him of course, except that if you trade him, I’d think you could recover enough of his salary to add another 1 or maybe 2 freely avaiable players to the roster without having to add to the payroll. So that’s something.
I understand the argument for trading Felix if you get a great offer. I think you’d have to take a great offer seriously. But boy, trading that kind of pitcher young has such huge potential for embarrassment. Nolan Ryan, Pedro, Kazmir…. I don’t want Felix on that list.
None of his problems seem insoluble to me. Not at 22.
If they got a ridiculous haul for Felix or Ichiro then the idea might be amenable. And by ridiculous haul I mean something that makes what BAL got for Bedard look sane and reasonable by comparison.
They’re the only reasons most people still watch or pay attention. Take away them and the M’s subtract the thin veneer of legitimacy that they possess. This team is basically the Pirates or Royals without Felix and Ichiro (instead of just being an underachieving laughingstock, they’d just be a laughingstock).
[long link]
It’s kind of sad. I think the only guy who could bring a true haul is Felix.
Ichiro is marketable but his contract will mitigate the return.
Bedard is a little more than a rental but he’ll also be getting about $10M next season.
The next GM had better be very talented and I think we as fans had better be patient.
Give me hope though and I can return patience.
Because I am old I recall when Steve Carleton of the Phillies was the premier pitcher in baseball.
There was much talk of whether the Phillies should trade him in his prime for prospects to bolster a then terrible team. Well the Phillies kept Carleton, and did become a very good team with him as the ace of the staff.
I would not suggest that is the only model for how to deal with Felix, but rather to suggest that the Mariners dilemma of what to do is not unique.
I am more enamored with what Billy Beane has done in Oakland. He knew that the A’s would be mediocre going forward with his then current roster. So he traded away some of his best players for a boat load of prospects, turned over almost the entire roster, and it has worked out very well for the A’s. If and when the A’s get their new stadium the A’s will be like the RedSox, a dominant team that will kick ass year after year.
I would be in favor of trading both Ichiro and Felix IF AND ONLY IF the guy pulling the trigger was someone you could trust actually knows something about evaluating talent, and constructing a roster.
I was discussing Bavasi’s miserable track record with a friend recently and I could not think of even one “good” transaction he pulled off in all of his tenure. Of course I ran out of time and patience recounting his many bonehead moves.
Actually, if we’re serious about building a dynasty style contender and we’re considering trades why not look to the budget master GM Billy Beane as inspiration?
No trade is unconsiderable. Part of the brilliance of trading players at their perceived peak is what you get in return. He traded Haren and Swisher AND built a winning team while beefing up the farm system.
Imagine taking that approach, but also having $100 million to work with – you’d have the flexibility to plug in expensive free agents at will and complete the puzzle easy.
That may only be possible by shipping off the most valuable pieces, i.e Ichiro, Felix, and Bedard. Big budget teams would give you the entire farm for those three right now. Haven’t the M’s, through too many bad signings, have made it near impossible to build a winner around those three in the near future?
wrote post 30 whilst #29 was putting up his.
Pardon the Billy Beane redundancy.
Felix should be damn near untouchable. Nothing short of DMZ’s theoretical Tampa Bay offer will suffice.
I’m thinking Boston would seriously consider Ichiro in the offseason. Manny will likely be gone and an outfield of Drew, Ellsbury and Ichiro would be awesome. Would Ichiro mind playing so far away from Japan?
If Bedard and Putz get healthy a lot of teams will inquire about them. Both could help contenders.
Felix is quite possibly the most valuable trade chip in baseball. that said, I don’t think I could ever see a realistic scenario where it’d be worth it to trade him.
I love Ichi as much as anyone, but if they’re able to move Bedard in exchange for Victorino, I’d be all for seeing what kind of haul they can get in return for #51.
What?
And take what back? Johnny freakin’ Gomes, the rightfielder/linebacker hybrid? Kidding aside, I honestly don’t see the Rays jumping on Raul.
Considering that Seattle’s relative proximity to Japan is a big part of why he came here and then stayed here, he probably would mind. Also, that’s give Boston two guys that really only fit well as leadoff hitters in Ichiro! and Ellsbury. Epstein’s not the type of guy who’d give up much to do that.
My opinion is that, when it comes to certain star players, teams shouldn’t trade them, even if they are rebuilding. Ichiro and Felix ought to be the players that define the Mariners for as long as they can play. It’s the same as it was with Edgar, Dan Wilson, etc.
I don’t know if I would be that happy if I were a fan of the A’s, having a new set of players to get to know every year. And anyway, I don’t think that the A’s would be run that way if they had any choice. They kept Chavez; I’m betting they would have kept Hudson and maybe Giambi if they had the money.
I think you can have a middle ground, especially if you have enough payroll. Lock up your best stars, build around them, and be flexible with everyone else. Sometimes, trading a player just for the sake of what you get back isn’t worth it.
For example, I think trading Ichiro would end up being more like the Moyer trade than the Haren trade. We lose a definitive player of the franchise who is still useful and don’t get much of substance back.
34, would the Mariners front office be getting free cheese steaks for life included in that deal? Bedard for Victorino? There better be 4 other names on the return flight manifesto if that’s the case.
37, I agree to an extent.. Its just that the Mariners took a time warp back to 2004. They have a lot of problems to shore up and not many candidates in house to do it. When you’re in that situation and given the way the Mariners have ZERO patience with young players, you are either looking at a 3 year minimum rebuilding plan or if the team keeps patching holes with sellotape, a longer stint in baseball purgatory.
To get the young talent to properly rebuild, the Mariner might have to consider giving up Felix OR Ichiro. That would allow them to probably get at least 3 solid pieces that will be part of a winning team. Given the choice, I trade the 34 year old making 18 million til his 39 season.
Dan Wilson??
37: I agree with you 100%. But sadly, that’s just not the mentality around the league anymore. There’s tons of examples of that every year it seems like.
34: Stop giving me ideas. Now when I get home from being my buddy’s Best Man tonight I’m going to have to look at Philly’s system to see what they could part with to even up that trade, because I’d LOVE to have Victorino here.
DMZ,
I’m interested in what you don’t like about Felix this year. I’m on the east coast, so I don’t get to see him pitch live much.
Just looking at numbers, his FIP is 3.38, xFIP is 3.56. 8 K/G. 3.3 BB/G. He’s a little HR and LOB lucky, it seems, but I guess most everboy with a 2.83 ERA is getting a little lucky.
For a 22 year old, heck for anybody, I don’t know what else you can ask for. Maybe he can learn to use his secondary pitches more, but gee, he’s great already.
I think the M’s should be looking to buy out FA years now, rather than thinking of trading him.
Ichiro, on the other hand is great, but may not be good when the M’s next are. I think you have to explore his market, if he’s willing.
The difference between DMZ’s “never trade Ichiro” stance and many of the “never trade Felix” stances here is that he concedes that his is based on sentiment.
How can anyone say never trade Felix based on anything but sentiment? Because otherwise, you can’t possibly say “no trade” without knowing what is being offered?
Can you really say you wouldn’t trade Felix for anything?
If you can… that’s sentiment.
If you can’t… then stop acting like trading him is crazy, because of all the people in baseball that you COULD get an amazing haul for (a “King’s ransom”) Felix has to be at the top of the list.
I’m not even a Mariner fan, but I really can’t conceive of what you could get for him that would be worth it, and the other team would consider.
It’s not emotion, it’s just really, really hard to see how you could get value.
For Ichiro, it’s easy to think of the trade. A team desparate to win now (Cubs? Yankees?) can give you 2-3 top prospects (Vitters, Veal and Gallagher? or Austin Jackson, Kennedy and Horne?) and you free up ?$17M? to spend on FA (Texeira, Sabbathia?).
I just don’t see that, between the way he is valued by others, and the recent spate of ‘he’s selfish’ crap out there.
Divish raised the Matsui–> knee–> Ibanez?
notion today
Ichiro would be owed about $75M for 4.5 years of future service if traded in July. Has a contract of that size ever been traded?
To me, it’s difficult to imagine there would be many teams willing to give up a ton of talent for the right to pay Ichiro roughly market rates.
Arod’s was bigger….but I can’t think of any others off of the top of my head….
And Soriano’s last three season’s of control cost about $23M…..
It is crazy to think about trading Felix, but if you could land an immense amount of talent, you have to consider it. I also doubt Felix is planning on sticking around here. He wants to be on the “Big Stage” and trading him now just may bring the most value. I do agree. However, i feel the same way about Felix as you do about Ichiro, Derek.
The problem with trading Ichiro is he will not accept a deal unless it is to New York or Boston, most likely. Maybe the Dodgers or Anaheim. Problem is, the Red Sox don’t need him. I’d rather have any of their starting 3 than Ichiro. Yankees Matsui possibly going down for year makes it interesting…Lopez and Ichiro for Cano and Milkey Cabrerra? I would do it. Do not think they are going to give up on Cano, who is on fire finally.
[this is off-topic for this thread, but I've reposted it to the most recent GM candidate thread here]
Why would we want to get rid of #1 starters like Felix or Bedard when we have no one in our system that is even close to that level? I know Bedard is this and that but he has #1 starter type makeup.
I guess it is kinda like buying a house. You buy the house because you like it but you should always think of resale. We have no one to take these guys’ spots if we trade them. I would take Felix and Bedard over CC right now.
I’m for getting rid of Washburn and his 10 mill. We are out of Richie, Raul, and Vidro’s contracts at the end of the year which gives us approximately 25 mill (35 mill w/o Wash) to start shopping. If we keep Ichiro in right and put Reed in center, we would need to get power in LF, DH, and 1B. I’m all for resigning Raul to play first or DH. Heck, we’d probably have enough money to sign Raul, Tex, and CC.
I’d have a really hard time with a Felix trade, too, as much as I reinforced Derek’s questions about him in my prior comment in this thread (missed the boat for a while, fencing tournament woo!).
I’d be pretty upset about losing a guy that we’ve watched grow up, and is a very good pitcher even on his off days, who has occasionally flashed potential to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the game’s all-time greats.
But I think that if you WERE to trade Felix, the haul you would get for him could be of unprecedented proportions, and could change the future of the franchise for the next ten years.
Felix himself, as awesome as he is, only pitches every five days.
You won’t get anywhere near the haul for Ichiro that you would for Felix; you might get one or two shiny prospects.
And how do you replace his production at the top of the order, on a team that already has one of the worst offenses in baseball?
I agree. It’s hard to talk about trading people without actually knowing what you could get, and it seems that Felix is more likely to get an offer that you can’t refuse than Ichiro.
Well, now they know.
trade bedard ,not felix, felix has been heard yelling “I want to pitch” in the clubhouse, while bedard has been a pretty quiet guy. We just need a better rotation to take pressure off of felix. I think it’s time to try morrow
I wake up every morning fully expecting to hear that Ichiro has been traded for Barry Zito, and that “our guys” think Zito’s most recent talk with Moyer or delivery tweak has turned things around for him, and that we now have six number one starters and are a lock for the playoffs next year.
Yes, I know Bavasi’s gone.
Oh no…I just knew we were gonna start seeing the “let’s go get Mark Texiera” talk again.
No way do we trade Ichiro. Willie McGee, Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor, Lofton, Butler. . . Ichiro takes care of himself better than any of those guys ever have. He has several years left, imho.
There’s not a chance that an interim Gm known to be a company man who wants the full-time gig next year trades Felix. Thank God too, I love watching home grown talent do well for the M’s. Felix is family to me.
At next year’s trade deadline, though, it seems depressingly plausible.
Do you get some kind of bonus points for yelling “I want to pitch”? How about “I am Sherlock Holmes’s only living heir” or “I’ve got blisters on my fingahs!”?
w/r/t emotional attachment to players, I’m pleased to see everyone fessing up to their respective Ichiro/Felix/all of the above issues. DMZ, it’s comforting to know that even primo analysts like you are susceptible to this. And it’s part of what has kept me a lifelong baseball fan, despite moving from the Phillies to the Mariners. 1980 notwithstanding, I know something of pain. I also know of pulling for my guy(s) through the pangs of summer disappointments, and tuning in again despite yesterday’s drubbing. Great post, and I’d shed many a bitter tear if either Ichiro or Felix were traded.
{tap} bzzzzzzz
{tap} bzzzzzz
42 snapper –
Here is what you should look at.
FB SL CB CH XX PO Pitches
65.7% (94.9) 12.2% (87.6) 8.8% (82.1) 13.3% (87.3) 2.3% 0.1% 1631
To break it down. Felix’s second best pitch is his curveball, and he simply isn’t using it. 70% fastballs?
Also, as much as I would hate to see either player go if i have to pick I am keeping Felix.
Mel isn’t helping with Felix’s fastall problem, he encourages it.
As much as everyone likes to harp on the possibility of Felix and Ichiro, I see the obstacles to trading them (i.e. management attachment, likely trading partners with enough to give, and money in Ichiro’s case) as too great to make any trade likely. In looking at the situation, I think that Ibanez and/or Bedard could go, but the most likely to go would be in a place that has hardly been mentioned: the bullpen.
As teams approach the deadline, there will nearly always be one or two players in the bullpen that, for whatever reason, just haven’t worked out. Many teams have bullpens that just plain stink. The M’s, however, find themselves with a pretty solid bullpen as a seller at the deadline. There, you have quite a few guys that would have value, be replaceable, be very movable moneywise, and could bring a few good pieces in return.
Honestly, if the Rays called up offering that for Felix el Rey, I’d do it. The potential for three starting pitchers who deserve the job instead of one, still with a young potential ace, plus Longoria on the position-player side? As many holes as we have, you have to do it.
Bravo Derek! You are the man.
As a fan, I also can’t accept that Ichiro could be traded away. I love watching that guy out there every day in a Mariner uniform. Just simply love it and appreciate it as a baseball fan.
And you made (for me) an eye opening comment about Felix. I imagined your scenario with the Rays and much as I think he’s awesome, surprisingly agreed with your response.
Felix is indeed Freddy+. Freddy’s reputation is way down now but in 2001 he was just a slightly “less” version of Felix, an up and coming bonafide ace. And we saw how that finally panned out.
If we had traded Freddy earlier than we did, we could have got a much bigger haul of talent.
But in any case, I can’t imagine the FO trading Felix. (Although the offers might be jaw-dropping indeed).
Finally, it always seem funny to me that the people who loudly want to trade Ichiro away saying he’s old, declining, selfish (lol), blah.. usually always seem to think they can get a king’s ransom for him.
Something funny about that.
What about the Twins as a potential suitor for Ibanez? The twins lineup is pretty right-handed aside from Mauer (who has completely lost his home run power) and Mourneau, and they are pretty slap-happy. Ibanez could give them a little sock and, I dunno, veteran grittiness for the stretch run.
And with Liriano possibly coming back they may have some young, major-league-ready pitching to give us. Scott Baker, perhaps?
I love watching Ichiro! and don’t want him going anywhere. I do think he has trade value, however, because of his reputation among other players and coaches.
My fear is that he will want to go somewhere else to have a chance at going to the Series.
Frankly, I think this is a good time to trade Ichiro. His skills are heading downhill, but he still has marquee value. It’s an obvious move for a team that desperately needs to rebuild.
I share your concerns about Felix, but really. Do you think this FO would make the right trade, the one that justifies giving up an exceptional talent? I think they’d be much more likely to go for a bunch of “proven veterans” that they would delude themselves into believing would allow them to contend next year. I’d be for it with a competent FO, but am dubious with this bunch.
I’m totally for trading Bedard, BTW. I never liked that trade (to get him here) to begin with, largely because he’s so injury-prone, and also because the M’s were never a realistic playoff team this year. Teams that are looking at the playoffs, however, always want more starting pitching, and the M’s could potentially get a good deal for him (though my caveats about this FO’s lack of smarts still apply).
Re my lack of sentimentality re Ichiro and Felix: I’m a baseball fan. I want to see good baseball played by a winning team. I like getting attached to certain players as much as anyone else (I totally loved Edgar), but what I really care about is good baseball and winning. If trading Ichiro or Felix helps this team become more of a winner, I’m for it.
The Mariners have worn me out and drained me of any irrational sentimental attachment to individual players and I now view individual players like a stock that you trade and when you have made a bunch of money on them you kick them to the curb and move on to a better stock without remorse or lingering attachment.
Ibanez – the M’s should definitely move him for even any decent prospect. Here’s the problem as I see it. He’ll probably earn Type A status this offseason, meaning the Mariners could get decent draft picks if they hold him and then offer him arbitration, but he signs elsewhere. Problem is that arbitration might be the best offer he gets since he’s a solid-but-not-great player who is getting up there in age (37 next year) and has negative defensive value. So the M’s would honestly be foolish to offer him arbitration unless he’s already signed with someone else because they’d just end up as a rebuilding team with an aging, overpaid vet. So given the alternative, I think they need to trade him for any prospect they can get. Better something than nothing, and someone should offer something, right?!? Rays probably aren’t interested, their priority is a guy who hits right-handed and can play right field. Maybe the Braves if their internal options keep failing? A fallen prospect like Brent Lillibridge would be great, but the M’s would probably have to settle for someone less. Maybe the D’Backs if Byrnes keeps struggling or ends up back on the DL. They have some interesting prospects. I could see Oakland having some interest, but both teams would have to get over the idea of trading intra-division.
Bedard – I think the M’s gave up way too much for him. At the same time, I think he still has pretty decent value (especially if he strings together a few more good, healthy starts). There are tons of potential suitors out there. I’d love to see the Rays get involved, but seems like they would be better suited going for a rightfielder with plenty of pitching prospects that might help. My perfect scenario would be Bedard for Hellickson, Niemann, and Sonnastine. Then they could have Price replace Jackson at some point and would have an unbelievable rotation through 2009 (Kazmir, Shields, Bedard, Garza, Price). Another ideal scenario would be if the Brewers and Cubs got into a bidding war. I don’t really like what the Cubs have to offer, though getting Rich Hill (and praying he either finds his control or can hit like Ankiel), Murton (ML-average outfielder who is dirt cheap), and a few prospects (Vitters, Ceda, and a few others) might end up being the best offer. Still, it would be great to see the Brewers get heavily involved in talks for Bedard. I would ask for Laporta, Jeffress, and a 3rd prospect, knowing the M’s would probably have to settle for Laporta or Jeffress, then 2 other prospects. Jeffress, Gamels, and a 3rd good prospect would be a very nice return. Phillies don’t have a strong farm system, but something starting with Carrasco and/or Adrian Cardenas would be very interesting (this would almost amount to emptying out their system). Braves could also be an interesting trade partner, but I don’t know if they have the budget flexibility for Bedard. Really, what team can’t use an elite pitcher in a playoff run?
Felix – same story as Bedard, only the price is much higher. My problem trading Felix isn’t some deep-rooted emotional attachment. I just think he could bring the same return at next year’s trade deadline. So if my long-term plan is to trade him, I wait another year and maybe even hope he agrees to a team-friendly long-term contract (or at least through his arbitration years) that makes him even more marketable. He’ll even have the same value this offseason. So unless the M’s were absolutely blown over with an offer, they should hold him up to another year.
Beltre – I agree 100% with the DMZ’s sentiments on Beltre’s value. One thing I think can make Beltre more appealing to other teams. Beltre 2008 at home: .222/.291/.417. 2008 on road: .274/.353/.459. 2005-07 at home: .259/.314/.425. 2005-07 on road: .273/.320/.479. Safeco pretty clearly holds back his power numbers and an acquiring team can expect an improvement. The main problem is that not many teams need a starting 3rd baseman right now. The Dodgers seem like the best fit (Laroche has battled injuries and still hasn’t really hit in the majors, Nomar has devolved into a punchline, and Dewitt doesn’t seem quite ready). I’d love to see a Beltre-for-Laroche trade (maybe even with a 2nd, lesser prospect included). Minnesota would be another obvious target since Lamb has been brutal, but the Twins have been historically frugal so its unclear whether they would take a fairly big contract. They do have a lot of interesting pitching prospects. The Astros have a horrible farm system, but they might want an upgrade over Wigginton if they laughably fancy themselves as buyers. Milwaukee maybe, but Branyan would have to cool down first.
Washburn – I honestly think it would be pretty easy to move him. Plenty of the teams mentioned earlier will either miss out on the elite pitchers, will not have the prospects, will not have the budget space, or will not want to give up the necessary prospects. Washburn will be an OK fall-back for some team. I might even look to make a move well before the deadline if the M’s just view him as a salary dump, as this would keep more teams in play that may fall out of the race in the next month (Astros for example). Looking at his underlying stats, Washburn is the same guy he’s always been (K/9, BB/9, GB% all in line with career norms). His BABIP is .334 this year, but .283 career. Just a little bad luck that seems to be regressing to the mean lately.
Betancourt – freaky stat of the day is that Yuniesky has managed to lower his BB% and K% each year since he debuted in 2005. His LD% has also increased every year, so its a little surprising his AVG hasn’t moved upward more. His OBP around .300 will always limit his usefulness. I’m not particularly gifted in the use of defensive measurements, but if his defense has indeed cratered, then now would be the ideal time to move him. Hopefully someone would look at his reputation more than recent results defensively, and will think he’s a cheap, glove-minded SS. Even then, I can’t see any team giving up anything significant for him. Best case (for the M’s) is that someone loses their SS to an injury.
Lopez – AVG/OBP/SLG are all at career highs. Not by much, but still. Problem is that no one really needs a 2nd baseman that much. Maybe the Mets, but waiting to see if anyone gets injured is probably the best course. He’s not a guy to dump or build around, so really the team can keep him until they get a good offer or have a better internal option.
Batista – At best, the M’s could probably hope to eat a few million bucks of his contract and dump the rest.
Silva – have to eat millions and millions of dollars to move him. Better bet is to hold and hope for a miracle turnaround next year (and promptly trade him for anything or anyone).
Sexson/Vidro/Johjima – wish I could disagree with DMZ.
Ichiro – I can’t imagine ownership agreeing to trade him. He’s the face of the franchise, for better or for worse. I don’t think he’s declining at all, but I just don’t think they’d ever move him. That’s why I forgot him the first time!
Wow – that Rays trade would be a steal and a half. It’s a fanciful idea, I can’t imagine they’d offer anything close. Hell, Longoria alone would be a great return.
But the broader idea that a Felix trade is our shortest path to an injection of top-shelf talent is true and should be explored by the new regime.
Trade value for value: (1 Mariner’s trade Beltre for Dodger’s Loney and Ethier; (2 Mariner’s trade Bedard for Cub’s Gallagher and Murton.
Neither of those trades is realistic.
here