Tampa Rejects Results Based Analysis
From Rays GM Andrew Friedman, on the necessity to make a deadline deal to avoid criticism if they don’t hang on and win the division:
Friedman, however, dismissed that sort of pre-emptive second-guessing as “outcome-based instead of the process,” saying the Rays need to figure out now how they would fill potential holes in the coming months and move accordingly.
Outcome-based, results based, call it what you want – Tampa clearly understands that good organizations implement a process based on logic and reason and don’t diverge from that to satisfy the desires of those who don’t understand why results based analysis is stupid.
The media might not understand why Tampa is winning, but it’s the natural byproduct of an organization who put an intelligent plan into place.
Comments
22 Responses to “Tampa Rejects Results Based Analysis”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I think I can teel most people why the rays are so good.
They are 1st in defensive efficiency.
4th in EQA
They also have 5-6 pitchers with a VORP over ten.
While the “win now” Mariners continue to suck eggs at the bottom of the American League.
Its good to be a Rays fan.
[ot]
I can’t wait to see what the Rays do with their bullpen for the second half.
Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival are extreme flyballs pitchers who have been very stingy with the homeruns — do they gamble on that continuing?
Grant Balfour has been insanely good in the K/BB department, but in only 15 IP — does the scouting report match the results and do they trust him with a larger role?
Do they realize that JP Howell has been their best statistical reliever with 25+ innings and give him a more important role?
How much are they willing to give up for Brian Fuentes, whose low ERA last year was a result of an insanely low BABIP and has pitched much better this year, regardless of ERA. (Of course, he’s been luckily stingy with homeruns.)
Do they trust any of their pitching prospects with a bullpen spot? Is there a guy who’s not read to start but that has one or two great pitches — enough to post a 3.00 ERA in the bullpen?
If Kazmir and Shields are seriously injured in a freak combine accident over the All-Star break, the media would still blame the Rays missing the playoffs on lack of veterans.
Well they wouldn’t have the veteran leadership to carry them through those tough times.
A trade for Fuentes looks imminent, and the consensus feeling is that Price will be up in the bullpen doing a Joba Chamberlain impression by the end of the year.
um, he has? Wonder if Roto is thinking of Batista…
Everything I hear is that people keep expecting the Rays to fall apart, like it’s all being done with smoke and mirrors. A columnist here in Denver insisted they trade away whatever talented guys they have in the minors for some Proven Vets who’ve ‘been through the wars’ because they should ‘stop and smell the roses this year and stop looking towards the future’ all the time.
Was that woody paige by chance? He would say something stupid like that. Jim Armstrong is bad from seeing him on ATH and reading a piece from firejoemorgan.com. He hated on “statheads.” So that could totally be his stupid writing.
Was that woody paige by chance?
Yeah, the name sounds right. I’m still getting used to a whole new slew of ‘writers’.
Go Rays! I’ve really been pulling for them to do well. That franchise reminds me alot of the M’s from the 80’s when we were nothing more than a “4A” team in that every halfway decent player was gobbled up by another team.
If only there was a way to know that JP Howell’s ERA would go from 7.50 last year to 3.00 this year. It’s almost like he has the same skills but hasn’t suffered from some bad luck. Anyway…
Ah what is must be like to have a intelligent organization…I shouldn’t day dream.
I am on this bandwagon like stink on a monkey. I just bought my cap!
I’m rooting for a Tampa Bay-Chicago World Series!
Who’s with me?
(btw, I will be rooting for Tampa)
So if the Rays make it to the WS, will that be a sufficinetly hard whack upside the head to the M’s org to get Lincoln and Armstrong “fired”?
Which isn’t surprising at all. Besides the fact that they don’t understand how the team was constructed to begin with, the stupid media seems to think that the whole frigging world’s gonna come to an end if either the Yanks or Red Sox don’t win the AL East — since “we won’t get our ratings share in October.” >:(
Joe Maddon has been a real asset for the Rays. The Mike Scioscia clone as far as his ability to relate to players and penchant for preparation was also said to be the Angels main proponent of the usage of stats and is reported to have tracked stats not used by other organizations and the sort. He was the runner up for the jobs in Boston, and Pittsburgh, so how was it that Bavasi missed the boat on him? I know it’s silly to say a manager can be a huge difference but, Scioscia basically turned the Angels franchise around and now Joe Maddon seems to be having a tremendous impact on the young charges that his GM has given him. There has got to be someone out there that can have a similar impact in Seattle, much like Lou did when he came over from Cinci.
Any chance the Mariners can pilfer Friedman from the Rays, since they can (presumably) offer more money? Sure, it would be kind of a dick move after he just built the Rays into a contender on a limited budget, but so what?
A couple of comments about the Rays from a Red Sox fan who, thanks to the utterly unbalanced schedule, sees a lot of them.
I completely agree with Plim about Joe Maddon. He and Francona were the two finalists to replace the execrable little. I wanted Maddon at the time, but things have obviously turned out fine just the same.
He seems to be a very sharp guy who can keep the big picture goals in mind as well as the short term. I remember a game or two last year where he removed Kazmir after something like 90-92 pitches and some Sox fans were chortling about what a dumb decision it had been when the Sox subsequently pounded the Rays pen. But it wasn’t dumb. It was smart, very smart in the big picture. Winning 68 games instead of 67 wasn’t going to do anything for Tampa. Having Kazmir around when things turned around was.
And, as bad as Tampa ownership was under Naimoli(sp?) give them credit. They did keep drafting and signing the best players available. They didn’t go the old Pittsburgh route where a guy who should be picked 24th gets drafted 3rd because he’ll sign cheap.
Anyway, that team’s fielding is real. The offense isn’t great but it’s no mirage. The starters are very good. I think the bullpen is the weakpoint. Troy Percival?
They’ve played 49 home games and 38 road games through today, so things are going to look a little tougher. I expect a little slip from that team but not a collapse or anything close to it. Friedman is sharp too. I thought their little MLB titration chemistry experiment might suddenly show a change next year but they’ve been terrific so far. From a Sox fan perspective, if the Sox don’t win it, they’re the ones I’d like to see go all the way. And this coming week they play the yankees. I can’t believe I’m feeling ambivalent about rooting against the yankees!
At the risk of sounding like a complete idiot, would anyone care to share what the article means by “Results Based Analysis?” I’m positive that ten seconds after posting this I’ll find a convenient link explaining everything about the methodology of this site, including that term. But hey, I learned what VORP was last year, don’t believe what they say about old dogs.
i hope the GM search committee reads the Washington Post. this made me really sad when i opened the paper on sunday morning:
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sports/mlb/longterm/2008/preview/pdf/mlb_sunday_070608.pdf