MLB Trade Value: Top Fifty
For the last few years, I’ve done a ranking of my interpretation of the fifty most valuable assets in MLB, taking into account a player’s current and future value as well as contract status. I just finished this year’s list, which was published over at FanGraphs over the last week. In case you missed them, here are the posts:
And here’s the list in its entirety. I wrote commentary for all fifty guys in the fangraphs posts, so if you’re wondering why I ranked someone where I did, check out those posts. They might answer your questions.
1 Evan Longoria
2 Hanley Ramirez
3 Grady Sizemore
4 David Wright
5 Albert Pujols
6 Brian McCann
7 Chase Utley
8 Felix Hernandez
9 Tim Lincecum
10 Troy Tulowitzki
11 B.J. Upton
12 Josh Hamilton
13 Cole Hamels
14 Brandon Webb
15 Joe Mauer
16 Justin Upton
17 Jay Bruce
18 Russ Martin
19 Jose Reyes
20 Ryan Braun
21 Roy Halladay
22 Miguel Cabrera
23 Scott Kazmir
24 Josh Beckett
25 Chad Billingsley
26 Justin Verlander
27 Dan Haren
28 Geovany Soto
29 James Shields
30 Prince Fielder
31 Joba Chamberlain
32 Clayton Kershaw
33 Adrian Gonzalez
34 Ian Kinsler
35 Lance Berkman
36 Curtis Granderson
37 Edinson Volquez
38 Dan Uggla
39 John Lackey
40 Alex Rodriguez
41 Jake Peavy
42 Chipper Jones
43 Dustin McGowan
44 Jacoby Ellsbury
45 Robinson Cano
46 Ryan Zimmerman
47 Carlos Zambrano
48 Clay Buchholz
49 Johan Santana
50 James Loney
Would Bedard have cracked the top 50 before the 2008 season?
All I’ve got to say is that I’ve been reading these religiously, and they’ve been great. It’d be interesting for me to go through and nitpick with you, but I don’t have the time. Great stuff.
Opposite Field:
Last year’s list:
Bill Bavasi’s list:
Great post! Thanks. I probably should have clicked that convenient hyperlink. I just jump at any chance to engage the authors here, I’m shameless.
Anyway, thanks for a fascinating and thought provoking post, Dave.
Based on entry E of the methodology, I have to think that Pujols is too high at 6. I adore Pujols, I really, really do. But the man is making $16 a year. He’s rediculously underpaid, but he’s less rediculously underpaid than, oh… Brian McCann, the man immediately below him. I would almost certainly also trade him straight across for either of the Upton brothers or Jay Bruce. The value of getting 90% of Pujols’ production at 5% of Pujols’ cost just can’t be overlooked. The only countervailing factor is the bit you guys occasionally refer to about how it gets really hard to add more wins when the only available upgrades are from someone ok and cheap to someone amazing, expensive, and unavailable. But, frankly, a lot of the guys below Pujols are also amazing, and much cheaper.
Put more briefly, I think you undervalue contract in a lot of the guys below Pujols.
Also, Hanley Ramirez. As a Sox fan, I cry. Then I look at Lugo’s line for the year, and I cry some more. Then I look at the banner from last year, and I stop crying, but I’m still pretty bummed.
Oh, right, that’s the other Pujols factor I wanted to mention. The man’s injury prone, and at this point, as a GM, I would have to regard him as a much more serious risk than most to lose significant parts of his value to injuries over the course of his contract, either to direct lost playing time or to diminished ability to produce due to injuries. Pujols is still amazing, but I’d rather have Jay Bruce or one of the Uptons or Tulowitzki.
[no]
Re: # 3
killer_ewok18 said:
Opposite Field:
Bill Bavasi’s list:
1 Erik Bedard
…
297 Adam Jones
…
362 George Sherrill
————————–
Dave,
Where would JONES and SHERRILL have been on your list last year?
I know this is going to get me blasted, but it’s a trade post right?
Colletti was recently quoted saying most of their players were available because they’re looking for a shortstop. Betancourt? Is he worth anything? Throw in the names Loney, Sexson, Bedard?
I’m sorry.
9 Tim Lincecum
10 Troy Tulowitzki
Great. We have Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow instead of them. AND, each of them was rumored to be going to the Mariners, not like it is just a pipe dream to think they could have ended up with Seattle. Not saying Clement and Morrow aren’t good. Just that they aren’t at the level of these two yet.
Pride of Everett, WA, Grady Sizemore! It would be beyond awesome to see Sizemore roaming CF in the Safe every home game. Sigh.
The 41-45 link is incorrect – should be #41 to #45
Thanks, Dave, this is great. Thanks, NODO, too, for figuring out the right link there.
I don’t know whether I agree or not that guys like ARod, Peavy and Santana should be on the list, but I do think it’s a weird concept. I can’t imagine any of the appropriately highly paid stars on the list being traded for anyone other than another appropriately highly paid star.
Last year:
Nick Markakis at #27 is something of a hunch pick, but I love his swing, he’s a pretty good defensive player as well, and he’s heading into his second season in the majors, meaning he makes nothing. That’s a valuable asset, and if he takes the step forward that he’s capable of, he could easily crack the top ten next year.
_______
How is he not ranked this year?
Man alive, Dave might be the best baseball analyst I have ever read, but that list from two years ago goes to show how little predictive power even the most knowledgeable person has…all we can do really well is observe, analyze, and construct an analytical snapshot, but the situation can change quickly in ways no one predicts. Not that he was predicting anything, I know that wasn’t the point…
Dontrelle Willis was “already one of the best pitchers in the league” at 24 two years ago. “The difference between [Pronk Hafner] and [David] Ortiz as a hitter is basically nil.” Both of those guys seem to have fallen off the ledge in a pretty short amount of time. Even a broken-down, old Ortiz looks like an MVP next to Pronk, and Willis is wallowing in farm. It makes me look at this year’s list and wonder which guys are close to the precipice themselves, with no one the wiser.
Hafner is injured.
He’s been in a decline since peaking in ’04-06…are you saying that it is just injury related? I don’t know about that (not baiting, I mean I honestly don’t know). He draws a lot of walks and otherwise ain’t that great, in my opinion. I wouldn’t call him the same caliber hitter as Ortiz anymore, who has continued to mash while gimped and past his prime.
not comparing the two, just that Hafner this year has been affected by the shoulder; he is likely to fall off anyway, with his skill set
that is a good point, skill set trend…thanks
Apparently Harden has just been traded…..
Harden & Gaudin
Naughty naughty, neither Harden or Gaudin are on this list!
does it count that Dave mentioned Gaudin on Fangraphs as a good example of Beane picking up a cheap pitcher?
I find it funny that Tulowitzki is top 10 when the consensus (not just here but everywhere it seems) was that the value of him being a top 5 pick in the draft was that he seemed to be a sure/safe bet without the upside of some of the other players. A 15 hr 15 sb with a good but not great batting line. And voila, a few years later he’s a top 10 talent. I wonder, is it hard to evaluate college players? I don’t recall anyone raving about Longoria, or Tulo’s defense, though people did say that they were above average, they seem to have the type of fielding skills people might talk about years after they retire.
Completely agree with #15 – where the heck is Nick Markakis?
Just wondering why Fauston Carmona isn’t on this list anywhere. In ~350 IP he has an ERA+ or 126. At 25 years old with a extremely team friendly contract, I’d assume that he’d be on here at least somewhere.
Of the pitchers on this list, he’s about equivalent to Verlander and Hamels. While 350IP isn’t a huge sample, I would consider it big enough to not be entirely flukey. How did Josh Beckett make this list?
It’s been said before…but where in the world is Nick Markakis?