Why You Have To Move Washburn
I’m sure I’m preaching to the choir here, but just in case anyone was buying the line about it potentially being wise to keep Washburn, here’s why you absolutely have to move him if you can.
M’s 2009 Committed Payroll:
Ichiro: $17 million
Beltre: $12 million
Silva: $11 million
Washburn: $10.35 million
Bedard: ~$10 million (arbitration eligible)
Batista: $9 million
Johjima: $8 million
Putz: $5 million
Felix: ~$4 million (arbitration eligible)
Betancourt: $2 million
Lopez: $1.6 million
Those M’s are on the hook for almost $90 million for those 11 players. I know, it’s brutal, but it’s true. They do have a decent group of pre-arbitration guys who will all be cheap (Morrow, Green, Lowe, Dickey, Rowland-Smith, Clement, Balentien, Reed) and will fill roles on the club, but this team needs to add five or six new players this winter, with at least three of them being starting quality.
You don’t have to fill all the holes through free agency, but having $36 million in budget room is a lot more appealing than having $25 million in budget room, especially when Washburn is so easily replaced by the Dickey/Rowland-Smith/Morrow group of cheap arms.
It doesn’t matter if the M’s get any talent back in return. For the health of the 2009 team, they need to get Jarrod Washburn’s salary off the books. If you get a player back who can help you, bonus, but the correct answer to any trade offer that involves the M’s unloading his entire 2009 salary is “yes”.
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[ot]
What would be a better trade? One in which the M’s dump his whole salary for nothing or one where the dump 3/4 of his salary while getting a decent player in return?
According to Rosenthal, Washburn has a limited no-trade clause that includes the Yankees. I hadn’t known that previously. That provision may make it more difficult to move Washburn, as the Yankees would seem to be one of the most probable teams interested to acquire him.
Ugh, why did I look at that list?
Even if we move Washburn, we still have $28 million tied up in Silva/Batista/Johjima.
But yeah, if you’re looking to contend again in 2009, getting rid as much wasted salary as you can is a no-brainer, even if you don’t get any talent back in return.
Dave or Derek, what’re your thoughts on the deal we all hear floating around, getting Kei Igawa from the Yankees and having to pay some of Washburn’s salary for this year?
Igawa coming back would still tie up $4 million per year for the next three years. Would getting back whatever Igawa’s talent level is (which doesn’t look great, but not the worst in the world either) plus saving $6 million next year be a win for the Mariners?
I frankly don’t care at all about what they’d end up having to pay towards Washburn’s contract THIS year. Payroll flexibility for 2009 is what matters.
I remember looking forward to 2009 because of all the high salaries coming off the books at the end of 2008. Of course, that was before the Silva and Johjima contracts. Dumping Washburn would certainly help.
Pay Washburn $500,000 to waive his no-trade to NY. He’ll say yes, and no one will miss the half a million in this organization. That’s a meal allowance for Carlos Silva.
As for the Igawa stuff, no thanks. The M’s already have five guys who are #4/#5 starters – they don’t need another one.
The latter, because free agent talent is always inherently overpriced; but the difference between the two wouldn’t be huge, and the WORST thing the Mariners could do is end up stuck with Washburn for 2009 because they’re asking for too much in return.
Ha ha ha, poor Silva. Hoist on his own, ever-expanding, petard.
If the only way the Yankees will do the deal is if the Mariners agree to take Igawa (let’s assume they also send a B or C-level prospect back), do you do it?
The Yankees need a catcher! Throw in Kenji!
Washburn and Kenji for Igawa!
I know, I know, it isn’t going to happen but one can dare to dream right?
God DAMN that’s a depressing list. That’s two Oakland A’s teams’ worth of dough.
2.
Depends. First off we probably won’t get a decent player for only eating 1/4 of the salary. Apparently right now we are trying to make the Yankees take Vidro as well. We would get Igawa, a second-tier guy and money to pay for Igawa’s salary.
I don’t really care about Wash’s salary for the rest of this year; like Dave says, it’s next year where the salary is key.
I have to say, from what I’ve heard of the team’s trade talks (ie, demanding at least Kemp for Beltre, Scherzer for Raul) we are at least negotiating like normal teams. Always start high and then work to a compromise. Too often the last couple of years seemed like we just took whatever deal was offered.
Heyman* thinks it’s Igawa for Washburn and maybe Vidro, which makes no sense to me. Vidro’s option isn’t going to vest, which means he’s off the books next year. And who cares about this season?
I don’t like this trade. If the dollars are equal, then the Yankees win, because they have more of them to begin with (even with the increasingly-ugly-looking Posada deal, they have $80 million coming off the books this offseason). Igawa might be salvageable, but “might” should get you a discount. Yes, you have to get Washburn off the payroll (and Silva and Johjima and Batista…) but getting Igawa back puts $4M back on the books, and that’s not a good deal especially if he never pitches in the majors again. Get some lower-level prospects instead: even if they never reach the majors either, they don’t impact your 2009 payroll.
If the Yanks cover Igawa’s salary through 2011 it’s a different deal, of course. Though I’d still rather see prospects. Hey, it works for Beane (of course, he seems to have scouts who can evaluate them, too).
*who thinks Ichiro is a slacker and is an idiot in various other ways, but might be hearing things from the Yankees camp and so might be worth some attention.
Too often the last couple of years seemed like we just took whatever deal was offered.
Or didn’t take a deal at all, but just gave the guy away.
I’m still waiting to find out who his “two people with Mariners ties” were…
As awesome as Washburn is, that deal might be the only one out there that gets you out from under the majority of his salary for 2009.
I’m not too worried about whether the Yankees would “win” the trade or not, as long as it would help with getting this team competitive again in 2009.
Getting rid of $6m obviously isn’t as nice as getting rid of $10m (you deal with the other two years of Igawa’s contract down the road), but it’s better than not getting rid of anything at all.
He didn’t specify what kind of ties they were, did he?. For example, I have a Mariners tie that my grandmother-in-law gave me last Christmas. It’s a silky blue number with stripes and little baseballs; a real lady killer. If I had one more Mariner tie, that would technically make me a person with “Mariners ties.”
I agree Jeff that getting rid of 6 mil is better than nothing. However, we would be taking on $4 mil for 2009, 2010 and 2011 with Igawa. I am hoping that the M’s can just unload Washburn for a low level prospect and call it good.
Bedard’s really going to go from 7M to 10M in arb just because of service time?
I don’t know how the Ms figure it out but Ichiro’s only getting paid 12M/year with the other 5M deferred. Even if you count the deferred money for this year, it’s only ~4M because of interest.
No way on Igawa. You might save 6M by dumping Wash, but you’re picking up 4M each in ‘10 and ‘11 with Igawa and I’d rather have Washburn in 2009 than Igawa in any year. Unless the Yankees are sending Jackson with Igawa I’d be saying hanging up the phone
#15, et_blankenship…
Well played sir, very well played.
With the Yankees massive ability to absorb payroll, maybe we can somehow convince them to take Washburn and Silva in return for absolutely nothing. Someone just has to convince Hank Steinbrenner that Silva is good.
Yeah, but at the end of 2009, you have Beltre at $12m and Batista at $9m coming off the books (assuming you don’t resign either).
Don’t get me wrong, my preference would be to get nothing else back but nice cheap minor league talent; but every dollar you can free up for 2009 is a win for the team, and while Washburn might be marginally better than Igawa, he still isn’t very good.
I also wonder if Igawa’s 53.8 LOB% is reflective of a significant talent drop from last year or just really bad luck? I think Dave’s assertion that he is just another #4/#5 guy is probably more reflective of the pitcher he actually is.
Like I said before, the Yankees want us to take Igawa then they can take Kenji!
17
According to River Ave. Blues (a Yankees blog) they would be giving us money to offset Igawa. Although this was before the Vidro talks so who knows. I’d be fine eating Wash’s salary this year and them paying for next year if we could use that to get a decent to good prospect.
good link, but please use the link button
But seriously let’s just get Wash out of here.
Igawa’s AAA stats this year:
113.2 IP
101 H
90 k’s
32 bb
3.80 era
1.17 WHIP
Not sure on the other stats such as LOB%, etc.
70.9 LOB%.
.287 BABIP
Velocity waaay down from previous season (fastball -2.2, slider – 4.4, etc.) but maybe he was injured; I haven’t followed Igawa this year.
At 29, he appears to be a classic AAAA starter or average long-reliever. Yay.
If the Yanks send back enough money to cover Igawa’s salary, I’d obviously like the idea much, much better.
But if you’re the Mariners and are given a choice between money or talent coming back, you take the talent.
In other words, between the two scenarios:
-Igawa and a B-level prospect, but no cash coming back
-Igawa by himself, but cash to offset his contract
You obviously take the first one. The whole point of trying to get out from under past payroll mistakes is to try to acquire talent to make the team better; money is only valuable for the talent it lets you acquire.
Please, no Igawa. I don’t have a great argument on why not but this team doesn’t need anymore bottom dwelling starters. The guy has shown himself to be a bust (I don’t need that small/big sample size comparison to see it). The Yankees overpaid for Igawa because they could, we shouldn’t pick up their mess. I’m ok with the Yankees picking up any of our overpaid and under performing players. Have you heard of the phenomenon that is yet?
oooooooooh
[ot]
Yes, arbitration awards go up very quickly even without improvements in performance, and players with 5 years of service time do very well. Recent salaries for 5th year arb. eligible guys include:
Mark Teixeira, $12.5 million
Francisco Rodriguez, $10 million
Oliver Perez, $6.5 million
Brad Lidge, $6.4 million
Brian Fuentes, $5.1 million
Felipe Lopez, $4.9 million
Even with his injury problems, Bedard’s going to come out looking like one of the best 5th year arb. eligibles in recent history, and so while he won’t get Teixeira money, he’ll get close.
I understand it’s Riggy’s job to frost his shit cake, but c’mon, dude.
Since were talking payroll, free agents, and the such. Would Adam Dunn be a reasonable replacement for Raul, or at 1B, or DH. He bats left and is on a down batting average year, but his OPS is the third best at left field. The real question is how his numbers would be affected going to the AL and safeco field.
Another Richie Sexson?
Just had to bring your attention to this [ot]
Silva: $11 million
Washburn: $10.35 million
Batista: $9 million
Johjima: $8 million
This is really the major dead weight on the payroll right now. That’s $38 million being spent on a few wins above replacement. If we get rid of Washburn we are reducing the dead weight to $28 M which isn’t too bad. The combination of Sexson coming off the payroll and Washburn being traded would open up so much payroll space the new GM would have a lot of flexibility in improving the team. That’d probably give enough for Felix and Bedard extensions which would be huge for the team. There might even be enough for a decent FA.
No. Horrible defense, classic old-player skills, will cost way too much.
might be marginally better? might be? Igawa is terrible. He’s barely above average in AAA.
I think the point is that the Yankees would only consider the deal if the Mariners take Igawa. The Yankees are effectively willing to take Washburn if he is roughly free. The Mariners get to convert a 1.3-year obligation of approx. $13M into a 3-year obligation of the same amount. This has some value, and they get to see if they can get something out of Igawa. No one is giving anything good for Washburn. I think the idea that the Yankees would give a B-prospect AND take Washburn’s salary is pretty silly.
Yeah, thumbs down on Dunn.
As far as Igawa/Washburn goes Matthew, I see your point; I just think that if we can essentially spread out Washburn’s contract over three years by taking back Igawa, especially if it’s Igawa plus some money from the Yankees, that helps us in 2009 which I think has to be your most important goal.
If we were in a Cleveland situation where due to revenue constraints, it wouldn’t be reasonable to turn the team around in a year’s time, I’d absolutely say no way; but we’re trying to turn things around in a year, and having as much money as possible to (efficiently) spend in the upcoming free agent market is going to be the key to that.
Washburn might help you contend in 2009, yes, but not as much as what even a better-spent $6m will. If Igawa manages to unsuck somehow, hey bonus; but in my mind, it doesn’t matter if he ever even pitches for the M’s.
And from the Yankees’ perspective, I don’t see Washburn being enough of a difference-maker for them for the rest of the year for them to not want something in return from the Mariners in exchange for taking his contract.
Agree that we need to get out of Washburn’s contract, the money needs to be used to fill in some holes, but big no to Igawa – that is not an improvement/solution. Johjima needs to be unloaded, we’ve got a catcher with Clement and he’s much cheaper than 8 mil. Dunn is done. He’s Richie Sexson, Jeff Cirillo, Rich Aurilia – won’t be able to hit AL pitching.
Looking at those salaries is just depressing. I guess the real questions now is whether:
A: The M’s thought that Washburn, Silva and Batista were top-of-the-rotation guys worth big multi-year salaries. In this case, they just have no clue how to evaluate pitchers (so what else is new?).
or
B: The M’s understood the Terrible Trio were no better than proven innings-eaters, but thought that type of player worth eight figures for multiple years, in which case they have no clue how to value pitchers.
Considering they signed those guys one per year for three straight years, jeez, I don’t know, it could be C: all of the above.
Since Pelekoudas had some hand in the decisions, I figure that A or B matters. If it’s A, then they might move Washburn because he wasn’t what they thought he was. But if it’s B, they’ll want to keep him.
We’re going to have to live with Johjima; his contract plus performance make him untradeable. You just have to hope that he eventually unsucks, or that he negotiates an “out” back to Japan like Kaz Sasaki.
My God that list is horrible.
I’ve been trying to figure out which is the worse roster on paper. This year’s Mariners, or the 1999 Angels, Bavasi’s last gasp effort. Check out the rotation on that 99 Angels club. Ken Hill and Tim Belcher, ugh. And they’re 2 of 5 highest paid players on the team.
I think his son starts school next year, and unless Joh has become more Hasegawa-minded the last few years, it is likely that his wife & children will be staying home in Japan from then on.
Olney [salt, grain; take] was complaining that the Mariners FO has no real plan for the rest of the year, and that is causing hitches in potential trades; that if they really wanted to move Washburn, they’d be aggressive and make it happen (I think mostly so that he’d having something to write about)
I think at this point that you’re much more likely to see Burke moved to the Yankees than Johjima.
I have to say this makes sense. Painful as it is.
Seriously?
Career OBP–.381. This year–.388.
Career SLG–.521. This year–.545.
Career LD%/GB%/FB%–19.9%/33.6%/46.5/%
This year–19.5/%/34.8%/45.7%
Career BABIP–.290. This year–.249.
Dunn would be an MVP candidate with a few more lucky breaks.
How much of Dunn’s work this year has been facing AL pitching?
I have heard that the Marlins would be willing to trade Josh Johnson (1b) for bullpen help, any chance the M’s have anyone would could get that deal done?
Why You Have to Move Washburn?
Three words: Angry Beaver Face.
Though that ‘01 rotation BB assembled wasn’t really much to write home about, either. I mean, you know you’re in trouble when 3/5 of your rotation is Pat Rapp, Izzy Valdes, and Scott Schoeneweis…
Hey, whaddya know…Washout was in that rotation, too!
Fancy that.
Gee, I forgot that ‘99 was also the year of “BlackJack” McDowell’s last stand with The Orange County Angles of North Santa Ana — before he finally realized he was washed-up and traded in his glove for a guitar full-time, that is.