Game 103, Mariners at Blue Jays

Dave · July 26, 2008 at 9:52 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Dickey vs Purcey, 10:05 am.

Ichiro RF
Bloomquist CF
Ibanez LF
Beltre 3B
Lopez 2B
Vidro DH
Cairo 1B
Burke C
Betancourt SS

In a season where the entire point is now to build for the future, the Mariners are starting players who won’t be with the organization next year in CF, LF, DH, 1B, and likely C.

In better news, the Dodgers acquired Casey Blake from the Indians today, so if the Mets are going to make a deal for a hitter, Ibanez is the last guy left. Let’s hope for a classic Minaya freakout overpay.

Comments

56 Responses to “Game 103, Mariners at Blue Jays”

  1. Go Felix on July 26th, 2008 9:55 am

    Dickey vs. Purcey….there’s a joke in there somewhere.

  2. msb on July 26th, 2008 9:56 am

    he throws out that oh-so-2008 line-up, but then talks like he’s the manager of the future, about Morrow & Putz among others, via Drayer, and Betancourt with Hickey

  3. joser on July 26th, 2008 9:58 am

    Man, these early east coast games kill me. I think I’ll skip the first hour in favor of “Wait, Wait, Don’t Tell Me”….

    But, since this is a game thread (and probably not a hugely exciting one) and the trade deadline is hard upon us: what about trading Putz? The Dodgers and the Brewers each need a closer, are in tight races, and have parts to spare. Yeah, I don’t know what it would mean for next year when Morrow goes into the rotation. But Putz seems healthy, even if he gave up a run in his last outing. And he has that “proven” label so many teams like.

  4. msb on July 26th, 2008 10:02 am

    it’d be interesting to know how other teams see his health– it looks like the Ms are still somewhat in wait & see mode about JJ

  5. Phightin Phils on July 26th, 2008 10:05 am

    Dickey vs. Purcey….

    And Vidro on for protection…

  6. msb on July 26th, 2008 10:11 am

    ok, just what does it say about how KOMO views its listeners these days, with the ads for the lawyers who get you out of drunk-driving charges, and for the bail-bonds outfit– KJR just assumes you are a balding guy with ED who’s looking for a divorce lawyer….

  7. Tom in Edmonds on July 26th, 2008 10:17 am

    Blue Jays are wearing their God awful mid eighties unis as they do every Friday. That truly is a terrible shade of blue…Shannon Drayer

    Guess that explains last nights look.

  8. mkd on July 26th, 2008 10:30 am

    Jeez. I read the post and was going back over who “won’t be with the organization next year” and was like hmmm who’s DHing today?…holy crap! Beltre’s DHing today! WTF! What happened?! Did he say…? What? But…!

    Then I saw it was a typo. Not a good way to start Saturday morning.

    I’m gonna go get a cup a coffee.

  9. AssumedName on July 26th, 2008 10:34 am

    Yeah, Vidro’s letting the ball get deep. He hasn’t just lost his bat speed or anything. Nice call, Blow.

  10. Pete on July 26th, 2008 10:49 am

    “In a season where the entire point is now to build for the future, the Mariners are starting players who won’t be with the organization next year in CF, LF, DH, 1B, and likely C.”

    …Did I miss something? Is Beltre gone for sure?

  11. abender20 on July 26th, 2008 10:52 am

    why would anyone want Justin Christian, who is 28 years old? If I’m trading for “prospects”, and they are not already a proven MLB commodity (and my team is awful and will require a few years to reload), why take a guy older than 24 or 25?

  12. Colm on July 26th, 2008 10:55 am

    2 DH’s listed in that lineup. At least one is a mistake.

    Well, Vidro in the lineup is a mistake however you look at it.

  13. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 11:13 am

    This isn’t going to go down as one of Dickey’s better games.

  14. Phightin Phils on July 26th, 2008 11:19 am

    The Toronto radio broadcast is commenting about how a team struggling like Seattle shows certain mannerisms on the field that indicate a problem. I’m not watching the game, but it was something about a miscommunication between Cairo and Burke on the relay throw.

    This isn’t going to go down as one of Seattle’s better games.

  15. galaxieboi on July 26th, 2008 11:19 am

    Speaking of trades, it looks like that the Indians of aquired Carlos Santana. They’ve now got a better guitar player than we do in Batista.

  16. LA M's Fan on July 26th, 2008 11:25 am

    Can I point out that Jose Lopez has a higher batting average than Ichiro? Meaningless, but weird.

  17. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 11:31 am

    An offense comparable to our own is pummeling us.

  18. TumwaterMike on July 26th, 2008 11:32 am

    I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer so maybe someone can explain this to me. Jamie Burke is a better hitter then Johjima or Clement. He’s a better handler of pitchers then both Johjima and Clement and seems to be better defensively, so why doesn’t he play more?

  19. galaxieboi on July 26th, 2008 11:35 am

    Jaime Burke really isn’t a better hitter than Clement or Johjima. Maybe RIGHT now he’s hitting better, but in terms of talent and ability he’s a good backup. I’m not hating on Burke either, I’d love for him to stay around for awhile as Clement’s backup.

  20. don52656 on July 26th, 2008 11:49 am

    Is there a chance that the M’s will not make a deal in the next week? That would truly make this a nightmare season.

    I wonder what the Nady/Marte trade to the Yankees means for the Washburn rumors. Perhaps now Gardner/Cabrera are more expendable? The Indians seem to have gotten some good value for Casey Blake….maybe it is a sellers market.

  21. patl on July 26th, 2008 11:52 am

    Gotta love 4-hoppers from CF in to the plate. WFB’s arm does not impress.

  22. JerBear on July 26th, 2008 11:55 am

    he should have just let Ichi take that one…

  23. galaxieboi on July 26th, 2008 11:55 am

    An offense comparable to our own is pummeling us.

    I actually thought for a minute Toronto was comparable. Their isolated power (read: sucky) is about the same, but they’re getting on base at a much higher rate.

    Of course, the M’s are at -97 BRAA where as the Jays are only at -57. We’re awful. Good grief.

  24. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 11:56 am

    Public enemy #1: Alex Rios

  25. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 12:02 pm

    Of course, the M’s are at -97 BRAA where as the Jays are only at -57. We’re awful. Good grief.

    Wow.

  26. jephdood on July 26th, 2008 12:06 pm

    Ichiro looks pretty bad today. 0-4, two pretty poor routes to balls hit to the gap.. Is some of the team’s stink clinging to him?

  27. JerBear on July 26th, 2008 12:10 pm

    That was a bullcrap strike 3 call.

  28. joser on July 26th, 2008 12:10 pm

    I don’t think he likes Toronto (it’s too close to Cleveland) or Rodgers Centre (even though he played on turf in Japan).

  29. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 12:11 pm

    It’s not just today. This has to be one of Ichiro’s worst weeks in the majors, if not THE worst. Two errors, a game-ending play that could have been called an error, 2-25 at the plate, no stolen bases in forever.

    Maybe they should let him rest that hamstring.

  30. joser on July 26th, 2008 12:15 pm

    Not to pick at an open wound, but I just looked at the fangraph for last night’s game. Man, talk about a high-leverage ending…

  31. jephdood on July 26th, 2008 12:17 pm

    It is SO frustrating seeing Vidro and Cairo in the lineup everyday. Throw in Burke and Willie and how can you possibly win?!

    I just don’t get it. I want an explanation by the FO/coaching staff why they continue to pencil in these old and/or terrible players when we as a team have been DONE for so long.

    Play some kids, dammit!

  32. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 12:19 pm

    Play some kids!

    The only thing that made 2004 tolerable was getting to see the kids play. Too bad it turned out that none of them were any good, either.

  33. Paul B on July 26th, 2008 12:23 pm

    I’m starting to think that Lopez is a guy out of position. At some point, they have to move him off of second, don’t they? He’s starting to hit enough, they could move him to left field.

    Of course, then they’d have to find a good glove secondbaseman, but maybe Tug in Tacoma could fit that bill seeing as how he’s played some SS.

  34. joser on July 26th, 2008 12:30 pm

    And now I look to see what the Saturday Fox game is going to be and, oh, hey, it’s Yankees-Red Sox. There’s something we don’t see very often :eyeroll:

    We’ve got intriguing NL matchups in Marlins-Cubs and St Louis (starting Joel Pineiro!)-Mets. Not to mention Webb facing Lincecum. But no, Fox goes for the $ of course, and gives us something we’ve already seen 851 times this season…

  35. itea on July 26th, 2008 12:32 pm

    To continue the conversation from a few threads ago in re Lopez/Ichiro…

    Right now, Lopez has a slightly higher BA, a lower OBP, and a higher SLG than Ichiro. They are effectively equal offensively for the season if you look at something like BRAA. Ichiro is an excellent baserunner; Lopez is 5 for 6 stealing and isn’t terrible on the basepaths.

    When Ichiro is in RF, Lopez is playing a tougher defensive position, with the consensus that he’s below average defensively. Ichiro is a very good defender, this week notwithstanding. He’s considered more valuable in CF.

    Ichiro is 10 years older than Lopez. He’s 35 in October; Lopez turns 25 in November.

    Ichiro makes 17 million a year and will continue to do so through 2012.

    Lopez makes $500,000 this year, then $1.6M, $2.3M, and $4.5M over the next three years with a buyout option in 2011. However, he has PA incentives he’s been meeting, and he’s also got some stay-in-shap incentives. Presuming he meets them all, he’s making about 12 million from 08-11.

    I’m not advocating trading Ichiro, and I’m not anointing Lopez as any kind of star. However, with the body of evidence we have before us, it seems wrong to say that replacing Lopez is a priority while Ichiro is a solid value. Lopez is far more likely to make another significant jump in performance over the next couple seasons, and right now he’s performing at the same level offensively. Of course it’s possible that Ichiro ends up far more productive over the next few seasons – but it’s also possible that Lopez is far more productive.

    I think Lopez gets a lot of crap for a 24-year-old 2B that is hitting as well as he is this season in Safeco.

  36. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 12:33 pm

    gives us something we’ve already seen 851 times this season…

    One of the unforeseen disadvantages of bud Selig’s unbalanced schedule.

  37. Paul B on July 26th, 2008 12:33 pm

    Sims is talking about how Yuni doesn’t walk and that Riggleman is trying to get him to take more pitches.

  38. Colm on July 26th, 2008 12:35 pm

    Itea

    I suspect you don’t actually know what you’re talking about and someone is going to eat the face off you for writing that. Let’s see, shall we?

  39. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 12:36 pm

    100 games of performance isn’t how you should analyze past offensive performance if your goal is to predict future performance.

  40. jephdood on July 26th, 2008 12:38 pm

    I have NO problem with Lopez as a whole. I am constantly perturbed by his middle infield counterpart, however.

  41. RallyFried on July 26th, 2008 12:39 pm

    I’m glad to see that most players are on board with the #1 draft pick strategy… However, I’m a little worried that Lopez and Beltre missed the memo. They really need to chill.

    REFUSE TO LOSE (Strasburg)!!!

  42. jephdood on July 26th, 2008 12:42 pm

    If I was blown away with a package of talent for Ichiro, I’d take it.

    He will likely be well into his decline by the time this team is back in contention.

    Sell high. Ichiro isn’t going to live forever.

    Now, this will NEVER happen.. because the team knows the marketing value he has..

  43. itea on July 26th, 2008 12:48 pm

    Colm,

    You are welcome to “suspect that I don’t know what I’m talking about”. I’m pretty sure that I have spent more years analyzing baseball statistics than 99.9% of the readers of this blog, as I started reading Bill James in the early 80s (like 81) when very few people knew who he or Pete Palmer was. I also worked at ESPN.com for a few years with people who were very invested in analysis – Neyer for one, also some other people who aren’t particularly well-known.

    That doesn’t make me a current expert, and I’d be the first to say that Dave is far more up-to-date on analysis and current players than I am. But I don’t think I’m ignorant about the subject.

    100 games is 100 games. People commenting at USSM were ready to toss Vidro after far fewer than 100 games this season.

    Please don’t overstate what I’m saying. I’m not saying to get rid of Ichiro, and I’ve never said it. What I’m doing is defending Lopez, and Ichiro is my method for doing so because he is a player who is regarded very highly here, yet his overall value to the team is not much greater than Lopez’s (in my opinion).

    pygmalion, I’ll assume that you’re saying that over the next 100 (200? 300?) games you believe that Ichriro and Lopez will revert to what you view as their true abilities, and Ichiro will far outperform Lopez over that span of time. Is that correct?

  44. galaxieboi on July 26th, 2008 12:49 pm

    I suspect you don’t actually know what you’re talking about and someone is going to eat the face off you for writing that. Let’s see, shall we?

    I had considered eating Itea’s face, but than decided against it. Mostly due to a lack of knowing where to start.

  45. galaxieboi on July 26th, 2008 12:54 pm

    100 games is 100 games. People commenting at USSM were ready to toss Vidro after far fewer than 100 games this season.

    Balderdash. We were ready to toss Vidro before 100 games last season. Besides, our analysis of Vidro wasn’t just ’100 games’, it was on his ‘body of work’. He has no knees and hasn’t hit well enough to play a hitting ONLY position in several years, if truly ever.

  46. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 12:55 pm

    pygmalion, I’ll assume that you’re saying that over the next 100 (200? 300?) games you believe that Ichriro and Lopez will revert to what you view as their true abilities, and Ichiro will far outperform Lopez over that span of time. Is that correct?

    Yes. It is likely that Lopez is getting a bit better and possible that Ichiro is in decline (then again, last season was awesome). Even so I would think that Ichiro’s true talent level will lead him to hit better than Lopez over the next year’s worth of games.

    Also, the Vidro deal was bad deal for lots of reasons. Dave wrote extensively about it as soon as it happened. The main reason is that there were no good reasons to think that Vidro’s performance would be worth his contract.

  47. itea on July 26th, 2008 12:59 pm

    galaxieboi – So you’re saying that if after 50 games this season Vidro was hitting .314/.381/.394 then the USSM community would have screaming for his release anyway? I think he’d have received some crap, but not nearly as much as he actually has with his actual performance.

    I checked, my first Bill James is from 83. I got the 81 book afterwards, but I started reading him in 83. My bad.

  48. pygmalion on July 26th, 2008 1:03 pm

    the USSM community would have screaming for his release anyway?

    The USSM community has been screaming for his release since he was acquired.

  49. itea on July 26th, 2008 1:15 pm

    Yes, the Vidro deal was bad. The Silva deal is terrible, the Batista deal is terrible, the Washburn deal is terrible.

    However, the amount of criticism aimed at these guys is de facto related to how many runs they are giving up on the field. It’s not exclusively related, but just reread the threads from this season – Silva was given a pass by most commenters as long as he was “pitching well”. Not from absolutely everybody, but when his ERA was under-4 he wasn’t receiving the criticism he is now.

    Anyway, I’ll try to remember to look at the stats on July 26, 2009 and we can compare Ichiro and Lopez then.

  50. Colm on July 26th, 2008 1:17 pm

    itea

    So far I come off as a provocative prick (guilty) and you come off as arrogant prick.

    My guess that you didn’t seem to know what you were talking about was based on two things in your post:
    1. That Ichiro and Lopez were “effectively equal offensively”. You added, “for the season”, which makes it technically true, but the thrust of your comment seemed either misleading, or mistaken.
    2. You say the consensus is that Lopez is “below average” defensively, which is glossing over it some. The most recent evidence I’ve seen here cited on this blog suggests that Lopez may be the worst second baseman in baseball. Again, the thrust of your post seems misleading or mistaken.

    Yes, Ichiro is paid scads of money, and is being poorly utilized in RF rather than in CF, and he is having a poor season. But Lopez, who is not paid nearly as much, is having yet another poor offensive season, and with his defensive decline he is hurting the team much more than Ichiro.

    I don’t think that’s arguable.

  51. itea on July 26th, 2008 2:59 pm

    Lopez is having “yet another poor offensive season”? By what metric?

    You’re also ignoring the difference in their ages, which has a huge effect on what we can expect from the two players over the next three seasons.

    My “for the season” is not an aside, or a paranthetical, it’s a very clear qualifier for the first part of the sentence. OF COURSE Ichiro has been far better over the last 8 years. Everyone knows that, everyone takes that for granted.

    That’s not the debate. We’re talking about what is to be expected moving forward. I really haven’t seen a clear reason to expect Ichiro to be better offensively than Lopez next year. 34-year-olds tend to get worse, and 24-year-olds tend to get better.

    I suppose we shall have to wait and see.

  52. itea on July 26th, 2008 3:15 pm

    I don’t mean to ignore the defense. If Lopez’s actual defensive ability is to be -25 RSAA per year, that’s a big problem. It seems awfully early to give up on his defense; his RZR was .839 last year which isn’t spectacular but is servicable.

    Here are a few questions for you:

    - How much money would Ichiro have to be making before you would consider him a less valuable piece of the roster (baseball-wise) than Lopez?

    - How long would Ichiro have to hit in the .300 to .310 range with his usual walk rate and power before you would consider it to be his typical performance as opposed to an aberration?

    - Do you expect Lopez to have a better 2009 than 2008?

  53. Colm on July 26th, 2008 4:04 pm

    1. I wasn’t considering value for salary – Ichiro, even with his 2008 production, makes it more likely for the team to win; Lopez does not – or barely. $17M for what Ichiro is giving this year, is not good value, but paying Lopez anything for sweet FA is scarcely good value either.
    2. Ichiro has had fairly prolonged “slumps” before where the papers have been full of stories that “the league has figured him out”. If he’s still hitting like this in a year I’d be both disappointed and very surprised.
    3. Based on Lopez’s lack of offensive progress since he came up and his deteriorating defense – no. I hope he will be able to improve. I expect he will not.

  54. Jeff Nye on July 26th, 2008 4:10 pm

    Whee, it’s the “Ichiro is in a decline phase based solely on the fact that I think all players follow the same aging curve” discussion again.

  55. Matt the Dragon on July 26th, 2008 6:03 pm

    itea,

    I think most of the problem stems from your use of results-based analysis.

    Ichiro’s underlying figures are as good or better than last season’s with a small decrease in non-repeatable skill areas, such as BABIP and IFH%.

    There is absolutely no reason to think that Ichiro is in any sort of decline. He’s simply not getting the same results from the same skills. (see Beltre, Adrian)

    There is no aberration, no slump in his hitting. He is simply more susceptible to large swings in his results as a high singles hitter.

    Lopez does appear to have improved, cutting his K% and increasing his LD% and whilst his BABIP is a touch above his career figure that’s probably made up for in his unusually low HR/FB and IFH%.

    Assuming what he’s done over the past 100 games represents a true shift in his talent level then his offensive ability has improved but still several levels below Ichiro’s.

    Once you factor defense – even with the defensive spectrum adjustment favouring Lopez (with Ichiro in RF) – it’s not that close.

    Lopez can be a useful player if he improves his fielding but there’s not really any reasonable comparison between him and Ichiro that can be made.

  56. Steve T on July 26th, 2008 9:16 pm

    1983 was my first Bill James annual too. I don’t think James’s analysis holds up very well in 2008; it’s better than the kind of garbage that preceded it (and which is still the norm most places, like newspapers). What James did that was revolutionary is his method, not his analysis. He asked questions, and he asked “how can we find the answer”. Modern analysis, much of which is beyond me in a way that Jamesian (and Palmerian) never was. But Dave’s your man there. I’m not saying he’s infallible, but he’s familiar enough with the tools that he doesn’t have to think about them anymore, which is what everyone’s goal should be.

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