Can Ichiro Get 3,000 Hits in MLB?
Last night, Ichiro recorded his 3000th hit as a professional, of which 1,723 of those have come since he joined MLB in the 2001 season. That’s impressive, but what are his odds of getting 3,000 as a major leaguer? A lot better than you might think.
Ichiro needs 1,277 hits to get to 3,000 for his major league career. If he hits any higher than .290 and averages 600 AB a season, he’ll get his 3,000th MLB hit sometime in 2015, his age 41 season. Think that’s impossible? Kenny Lofton hit .293 in his age 35-40 seasons. Despite the myth that holds the opposite to be true, fast players age exceedingly well.
Ichiro has never gotten fewer than 647 at-bats in a season, partly because he never walks and he is so fanatical about his stretching routine that he doesn’t get hurt. By setting an average of just 600 at-bats per season over the next seven year, we’re building in an injury decline that very well might not strike a player in this good of physical condition. But, if you think that sounds too high for a guy heading into his mid-30s, we can set the average season ABs to just 500, and he’d still be able to get to 3,000 MLB hits in 2017, his age 43 season.
Is it a stretch to think Ichiro can still be productive in his early 40s? I don’t see any reason to believe so. 43 is probably pushing it, but I’d argue that a 500 AB per season average is a far too conservative projection.
Essentially, Ichiro doesn’t have to do much besides stay healthy and play until he’s 41 or 42 and he’ll get 3,000 major league hits. I’m betting on Ichiro.
Comments
24 Responses to “Can Ichiro Get 3,000 Hits in MLB?”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Wow, that’s just… wild. He’s more than half way there. At his current rate he should crack 2000 towards the end of next season (there’s something to look forward to, anyway).
At what point does the Cooperstown conversation start? It’s too soon yet, but when? 2500?
It’s only too soon because you have to complete 10 major league seasons to be eligible. The day he passes that mark, he’s a Hall of Famer.
I fear a 44-year-old Ichiro struggling toward #3,000 in Craig Biggio-like fashion like others who were allowed to overstay their usefulness in Seattle.
If he had started his career in America he’d have a great shot of taking down Rose.
You know, Ichiro seems to have a pretty unusual outlook on a lot of things in life. Based on the translations of his comments — which is really the only way any of us know him — he doesn’t seem like a typical ballplayer. And as important as achievements clearly are to him, the way he achieves them seems to be important too (and this appears to be more generally true among Japanese baseball players as well). I’d be willing to bet Ichiro would choose to retire to Japan with dignity than overstay his welcome here, even if it meant giving up a contract and an outside chance at a milestone. Of course the lure of that number will be enormous, but so is the entirety of his legacy and career. I suspect he’s his own harshest critic and would be well aware of any decline in his ability and what that suggests about the realism of that target.
So, yes, I too fear a Biggio-like denouement. But I don’t think it likely.
This topic came up on Baseball Tonight on ESPN. Showalter basically said the same thing. 10 years and he’s a lock for the hall.
And what happened to the ‘dibs on first punch to rigglemans face for pinch running Washburn post?
I was waiting for the hilarity to ensue in the comments on that one, only to find that it disappeared!
You know what else will be fun about seeing him approach 3,000 hits in MLB?
His 2,978th hit in MLB will tie him with Pete Rose for all-time professional baseball hits.
2,911 will tie him with Ty Cobb.
I doubt he’ll be credited with the record, but I’m sure his plaque will make note of it.
This topic came up on Baseball Tonight on ESPN. Showalter basically said the same thing. 10 years and he’s a lock for the hall.
I missed that, did he discuss the importance of being the first hugely successful player (you could qualify that by just changing it to position player, but…) to jump from Japan to the US, after so many US players had gone over there? Sure, it’s not Jackie Robinson, but the Asian players coming in may become as important as Latin American players were 20 years ago. It may not be completely related to his career, but it was a bit of a milestone.
I’m interested in how Ichiro’s last couple years play out against Ricky Henderson’s last couple years. Two very fast guys with a lot of attitude, but completely opposite approaches to hitting.
I would love to see it happen / wouldn’t be surprised – however a lot of his hits come from speed and there is no question his speed will decrease with age.
The day I STOP betting on Ichiro is the day I give up my season tickets and start following the A’s.
Nothing short of a freak career ending injury would stop Ichiro from attaining 3000. I don’t even worry about that milestone. The record I want for Ichiro is for the 200+ hits in a season to stretch the duration of his career to ensure no one will ever break it.
I bet Ichiro’s HOF induction speech will be legendary.
I’d like to note that a few weeks ago, when I suggested that Ichiro was as much a lock for the HoF as any active player once he reached the required 10 years of service, I was laughed at here at USSM. 🙂 Yes, he’s not as obvious as Griffey, Maddux, Johnson, Clemens, A-Rod are, but as Showalter said on Baseball Tonight, he’s a lock once he’s got his 10 years. The election is not objective, based on pure counting stats; the opinion of the voters is all that matters, and they seem to think Ichiro is a special player- rightfully so. The voters would as easily reconcile his lost seasons to Japanese ball as they did Koufax’s lost seasons to arthritis.
The difference between a 200-hit season this year and having 1800 hits after 8 full seasons is basically 16 hits, so I’m going to pencil Ichiro in at finishing this year with 1800+ hits. I don’t see how, barring injury or a simple lack of desire (unlikely given his conditioning and skill set- he, like Henderson, could probably play well into his 40’s) he doesn’t squeeze out 7 seasons of 600AB and .287 hitting into his 41st year season, which is what’s necessary to gain another 1200 hits and reach that 3,000 plateau. And every hit over 200 now is just gaining against those late career padding stats.
The only interesting part is what #7, egreenlaw9, noted: that shortly before his 3,000th hit Ichiro would pass Rose for most hits in a career. It won’t be the “official” record, but I can’t believe MLB wouldn’t like a ton of media and hoopla about the 4,257th career hit coming from quiet, clean Ichiro rather than to remember the gamblin’ man himself, Pete Rose. A multiple-batting-champ, former MVP, 3,000 hit guy with a .300+ BA who also has an unofficial “most hits in history” record would be unconsciously plaque worthy.
It’s really a silly conversation: if Ichiro got hit by a bus, the voters would remember “what might have been” and the 3,000 hits. If he lasts until his 40’s, he’ll amass counting stats such as 3,000 and be a shoe-in. 500HR might be arguable in the near future, but 3,000H and 300W may never be.
Can anyone come up with a better term than “professional” to mean MLB + Japan?
Minor leaguers, who are payed for playing, are professionals. So it would seem that professional totals would include minor league stats. Also independent leagues, for that matter. Also winter ball.
I’d like to note that this is absolutely not true. There was some reasoned argument that there were more surefire candidates by a wide margin, and some skeptics of Ichiro’s chances in general, but there’s no one laughing at you there. I don’t know how you manage to get mockery out of that.
I have to say, I was a little startled this morning to see that only SI and CBS Sportsline had it listed as a headline on their websites … although USA Today did find “Three arrested in fight between Brewers, Cubs fans” headline-worthy
Ichiro on hit #1:
“I was 18 at the time, and I got called up to the Majors in July,” he said. “To myself, I actually refused to get called up, because I didn’t think it was my time yet. But the order came, so I had to go. I was in the mood of not agreeing to the [promotion], but I got a hit. That’s what I remember about it.”
The man himself has a good point:
I haven’t seen a source of stats for Japanese players that breaks out infield hits, but my suspicion is that at least a part of that may be due to him beating out balls on grass that would’ve got to the infielders faster on the carpets in Japan.
WRT the Cooperstown discussion, there’s a dated (2004) but nonetheless interesting article that comes up with
Ichiro’s infield hit rate isn’t actually that high, due mostly I suspect to his ability to hit almost any ball squarely.
If you’ll recall in 2004 teams (like Oakland, surprisingly enough) started to play their infield in agaist him all the time, and as a result he just got more hits by hitting the ball into the outfield.
But, regardless of how high his infield hit rate is, it would still make sense that he’d get more of them on grass.
Once Ichiro! breaks the 10-year barrier, he’s in. Not just because of his hits, either. You have to remember that HOF voters also look at stuff like MVPs, gold gloves, and silver sluggers. Ichiro! has a crapload of stuff like that.
I just hope that Ichiro! will not only be remembered for his playing ability but also for proving that Asian players can succeed in America. He’s not on par with Jackie Robinson of course, but future generations of Asian ballplayers have him to thank.
I’m looking forward to his commencement speech.
$*&&%&Y @))*$&$&$&, !**@&#&& %($*$#&& %))$((*% &#$**%)…
Either Ichiro is a HOF player, or I’m wrong about what the HOF is for.
Professional Major Leagues? Although I’m sure some other leagues besides MLB and NPB would vie for that title as well.
I can’t find an official source either, but my unofficial tally has him with 189 infield hits in Japan out of 1277 (14.80%) and per Fangraphs he has 273 infield hits in MLB out of 1723 total (15.84%).
Based on that there may be a small effect like that but it’s about 2 or 3 hits per season at best. (Assuming the underlying data is correct.)
I’m looking forward to his commencement speech.
At which he reveals that not only does he speak excellent idiomatic English, but all those cryptic pronouncements were carefully crafted gags. Especially the New Guinea beer one. Oh, and he read the USSMariner website almost daily, and posted occasionally under an alias. Once he even posted to a game thread, from the dugout, using his cell phone.