Game 116, Rays at Mariners

Dave · August 8, 2008 at 6:00 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Shields vs Silva, 7:10 pm.

Hey, remember that whole “Carlos Silva moved his hands around and is getting more sink on his fastball now” thing from a month ago? Yea, he’s made 5 starts with the new grip, gone 26 innings, given up 35 hits, walked 4, struck out 14, and has a 6.23 ERA. His groundball rate over that span is 39.4% and he has a brutally awful 30.9% LD%.

So whether you want to judge him by his results (which is dumb, but hey, we’re not winning that fight with everyone) or by the process that creates the results, either way, he’s been getting absolutely crushed since he changed his hands to get “more sink”.

The lesson, as always – these in-season mechanical adjustments/post-hoc explanations of success are pointless and should be ignored. They are anti-knowledge.

Comments

49 Responses to “Game 116, Rays at Mariners”

  1. cgmonk on August 8th, 2008 6:15 pm

    What’s the deal with ERA? If it’s so bad, why continue to use it at all?

  2. galaxieboi on August 8th, 2008 6:21 pm

    What’s the deal with ERA? If it’s so bad, why continue to use it at all?

    What’s the deal with coal? If it’s so dirty, why use it at all?

    Just kidding, bro. Baseball is so resistent to change it’s silly. That’s what’s awesome of sites like USSM and LL. Education. Maybe not today’s GM, but the GMs of tomorrow.

  3. cody on August 8th, 2008 6:27 pm

    This game could get really ugly really quickly.

    Or the planets could align and Silva will throw a perfect game while pigs fly overhead and astronauts discover that the world is flat.

  4. JR Ewing on August 8th, 2008 6:31 pm

    when reading silva’s fangraph chart (the one at the bottom of the page with multiple dots per season) for GB-FB-LD, what does the “last dot” or furtherest one to the right represent ? or, i guess i should be asking if the dots represent an average of previous games or a specific game?

  5. galaxieboi on August 8th, 2008 6:34 pm

    Soooo…any hope Silva can pitch better next year? Can we hope for a ‘dead cat bounce’ like we did with Sexson before this season?

    Interestingly enough, his xFIP is actually lower this year than last (4.60 to 4.67). His DER went from .701 down to .667, which can’t help. Also, his LOB% dropped all the way from 70.5 to 63.1.

  6. drjeff on August 8th, 2008 6:35 pm

    The press got it wrong. He moved his hands and his career got more sink.

  7. killer_ewok18 on August 8th, 2008 6:44 pm

    Those are pretty bad numbers for our 4th #1 starter. But they’re better than our 5th #1 starter.

  8. JR Ewing on August 8th, 2008 6:51 pm

    can anyone help out the oil baron with the fangraphs question ? post #4

  9. msb on August 8th, 2008 6:58 pm

    these in-season mechanical adjustments/post-hoc explanations of success are pointless and should be ignored. They are anti-knowledge.

    but you gotta have something to tell those clamouring, ink-stained wretches of the press

  10. lokiforever on August 8th, 2008 7:23 pm

    Is it worse to be an M’s fan when Silva pitches, or a Cardinals fan, when Franklin pitches? Seems the redbirds closer lost it for them in the 11th inning, giving up a couple of hits and a couple of walks.

  11. Slurve on August 8th, 2008 7:39 pm

    I’m cool with another loss especially with the 09 draft loaded with talent but a win will be fun too since it looks like we’re stuck at the 3rd round and the other teams are around .440 and we’re at like .381.

  12. David* on August 8th, 2008 7:41 pm

    Ah Vidro, how little I miss you

  13. Mr. Egaas on August 8th, 2008 7:42 pm

    Kid has a lotta bit of Pedro Cerrano in him.

  14. HamNasty on August 8th, 2008 7:45 pm

    He just gets pissed when Silva eats the sacrificial chickens…

  15. JimThomsen1965 on August 8th, 2008 7:47 pm

    Shannon Drayer placed on waivers, effective immediately, by KOMO?

    So saith Baker.

  16. NBarnes on August 8th, 2008 7:49 pm

    Wlad in CF while Ichiro stays in RF? *sigh*

  17. Mike Snow on August 8th, 2008 7:49 pm

    Trade Betancourt!

  18. Mike Snow on August 8th, 2008 7:53 pm

    Shannon Drayer placed on waivers by KOMO?

    Sounds like KOMO’s trying to reduce the amount of the bath they’re taking as they close out the radio contract. KIRO will hire Drayer for next year if they have any sense.

  19. metz123 on August 8th, 2008 7:54 pm

    In season modifications to “mechanics” are about as valuable as pitches “learned” in the off season that will result in huge benefits during the upcoming campaign.

    Wait a minute, didn’t Silva “learn” a change up this off season that was going to render lefties impotent against him?

    Yeah, that was another bill of goods that someone sold to Bavasi to get him to sign El Guapo Jr. to this millstone of a contract that the M’s are saddled with for another few years.

  20. JR Ewing on August 8th, 2008 7:56 pm

    no bitching about ichiro overthrowing lahair on the upton single ?

  21. metz123 on August 8th, 2008 7:58 pm

    Anyone willing to be the over/under on the inning when Silva’s back mysteriously starts hurting him again?

  22. HamNasty on August 8th, 2008 8:01 pm

    Wow, Dave’s tone does not seem to happy with Yuni.

  23. JimThomsen1965 on August 8th, 2008 8:09 pm

    Actually, Drayer is still working for KOMO, so I guess “designated for assignment” is the more appropriate term.

    Personally, I’d rather have her pitching instead of Silva.

  24. MattThompson on August 8th, 2008 8:12 pm

    That Drayer news stinks. She’s the only reason to listen to the pre- or post-game shows. I really hope KIRO picks her up.

  25. msb on August 8th, 2008 8:14 pm

    Shannon Drayer placed on waivers, effective immediately, by KOMO? So saith Baker.

    here

    well, thats a bit petty, if true. There’s a month & a half left, it’s so hard to fulfil a contract? And what ever happened to giving someone notice?

    I’d heard about Capuano– that FSN pulled out the old ‘going in a different direction’ line at the same time as saying “been instrumental in raising the bar on all the content and programming she has touched.”

    I’m guessing the different direction has more to do with Nicole Zaloumis’… um … talents.

  26. David* on August 8th, 2008 8:15 pm

    I heart left-handed socks.

  27. msb on August 8th, 2008 8:19 pm

    well, I tried to clean that up, but the html tags fried the edit boxes little brain, and it wouldn’t let me save the fix.

  28. Matt the Dragon on August 8th, 2008 8:20 pm

    JR Ewing said:

    when reading silva’s fangraph chart (the one at the bottom of the page with multiple dots per season) for GB-FB-LD, what does the “last dot” or furtherest one to the right represent ? or, i guess i should be asking if the dots represent an average of previous games or a specific game?

    Each point on the graph is an average of the last 6 games (within that season) for FB/GB/LD to provide something of a trendline for that point in the season. (The first five points only average starts in that season to that point.)

    The horizontal line is the overall season average for each batted ball type.

  29. msb on August 8th, 2008 8:24 pm

    did everyone eat their Wheaties? What’s with all the balls flying past fielders today?

  30. JR Ewing on August 8th, 2008 8:24 pm

    thanks dragon.

  31. JimThomsen1965 on August 8th, 2008 8:30 pm

    I think there’s no question that Capuano lost a “boob-off” with Mentink and Zaloumis.

    I once sat on a focus group and one of the questions put to us as different people were evaluated (this was for a movie) was: “Do you want to f— this person?” Several other questions were intended to link each candidate with their perceived sex appeal.

  32. msb on August 8th, 2008 8:38 pm

    because why would you want to keep someone who could host, do play-by-play, interviews and feature work ….

  33. msb on August 8th, 2008 9:02 pm

    so, now that Giles has said no to the Sox, who do they turn to for that bat?

  34. HamNasty on August 8th, 2008 9:31 pm

    Quite the game thread…

  35. JR Ewing on August 8th, 2008 9:33 pm

    does anyone know the chinese alphabet or the translation of the latin alphabet to the chinese one. this parade nations has me all confused. the go from the marshall islands to the cayman islands. how will i observe the folks from cook islands ?

  36. Matt the Dragon on August 8th, 2008 9:40 pm

    oes anyone know the chinese alphabet or the translation of the latin alphabet to the chinese one. this parade nations has me all confused. the go from the marshall islands to the cayman islands. how will i observe the folks from cook islands ?

    Chinese languages do not use an alphabet.

    In lieu of alphabetical order for the nations in the Opening Ceremony parade they listed the countries in ascending order of the number of brush strokes in the character for their country (excluding Greece leading off as always, and China – as hosts – completing the parade.)

  37. JR Ewing on August 8th, 2008 9:46 pm

    dragon to the rescue again, thanks.

    and bako,
    i was aware that the chinese language does not use an alphabet, i just used a poor choice of words to phrase my question.

  38. msb on August 8th, 2008 10:19 pm

    we were all trying to get through the buffet before Silva got off the mound.

  39. msb on August 8th, 2008 10:24 pm

    ooh, apparently Silva had another of his explosions, where he goes off on unnamed team members who ‘don’t want to win’

  40. Breadbaker on August 8th, 2008 10:40 pm

    Well, if there was a reason to fire Drayer, it would have been her final postgame show, in which she stated it was a “no brainer” that the Mariners should resign Ibanez, and that she couldn’t believe it hadn’t been done yet this season. I like her most of the time, but that was just wrong.

  41. Colm on August 8th, 2008 10:45 pm

    This poor little game thread just died a death, didn’t it?

  42. Mike Snow on August 8th, 2008 10:53 pm

    Wells has been sent down to make room for Rowland-Smith.

  43. gwangung on August 8th, 2008 11:15 pm

    ooh, apparently Silva had another of his explosions, where he goes off on unnamed team members who ‘don’t want to win’ …

    I’d take it more seriously if he didn’t throw so many meatballs that’re larger than his figure…

    Hint: Carlos, you don’t need any help to look as bad as you do…

  44. dnc on August 8th, 2008 11:34 pm

    I’m so sick of overpaid, underperforming washouts “calling out” their teammates.

    **** Carlos Silva.

  45. Sports on a Schtick on August 8th, 2008 11:49 pm

    Good gravy was tonight an all-time low for a game thread? USSM’s way of civil disobedience against Silva I guess.

  46. RallyFried on August 9th, 2008 1:07 am

    A couple interesting quotes from Silva after the game.

    “Maybe half of the team wants to do the best they can,” Silva said. “Take the starting rotation…every time we cross that line, we want to do our best. No matter how many games we are behind. But maybe half of the team doesn’t have that mentality. They are only thinking of finishing strong. And to put up their numbers. That’s great, but that affects us. As a team, that doesn’t work out.”

    We wouldn’t want anyone on this team trying to finish strong (I really don’t, lose as many as you can)! Or trying to put up numbers. I guess Silva’s pissed because they let Vidro and Sexson go. Two guys not interested in putting up any numbers. Not that the offense should be let off the hook, but the line, “take the starting rotation” made me laugh out loud. Is this guy kidding?

    “Maybe Chief has to go and grab somebody from his neck and throw him into the wall and something’s going to change,” he said. “I’m very close to doing that, so write that down.”

    1. Didn’t we hear this same tough talk out of Silva back in early June? 2. Is he grumpy because he hasn’t had his “4th meal”

  47. juneau_fan on August 9th, 2008 1:47 am

    Who in the world is padding their stats? Does any player have stats anywhere near records to pad? I’m confused.

    If he means Ichiro, Ich, don’t listen. I want you to reach your 200 hits/100 runs mark and I don’t care if you have to run over the top of the runner ahead of you to do it.

  48. scott19 on August 9th, 2008 4:35 am

    Who in the world is padding their stats?

    On a related note, I was thinking the other day of this recent tear that Rauuuuuuuul has been on at the plate lately and wondering who the last player was to have had a 100 RBI season on a 100-loss team.

  49. scott19 on August 9th, 2008 4:51 am

    who the last player was to have had a 100 RBI season on a 100-loss team

    I actually think I may have answered my own question on that…since, strangely enough, it was Raul who had 103 RBI for the oh-so-impressive 2002 62-100 Royals.

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