Game 125, Mariners at White Sox

DMZ · August 19, 2008 at 4:42 pm · Filed Under Game Threads 

Felix! Woooooooooooooooo! 5:11.

Try not to get whiplash, but check this out.

  IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB%
Pitcher A 140 5.01 2.76 1.16 36%
Pitcher B 151 8.34 2.41 .6 52%

I’ll leave it at that.

Comments

104 Responses to “Game 125, Mariners at White Sox”

  1. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 4:56 pm

    FELIX DAY!!! We also get to see Jr.

  2. Carson on August 19th, 2008 4:57 pm

    Why, those stats are practically identical!

    A very HAPPY FELIX DAY to our friend Geoff.

  3. abender20 on August 19th, 2008 5:00 pm

    Hmmm… one looks very much like a certain King.

    The other looks faintly like a “ground ball pitcher”, who is really more like a Ground beef pitcher.

  4. bat guano on August 19th, 2008 5:00 pm

    Okay, you’ve made your point DMZ. While I agree with you, it’s starting to feel like you’re rubbing it in.

    P.S. Baker isn’t the enemy—it’s the front office that needs to go.

  5. DMZ on August 19th, 2008 5:03 pm

    I swear, the worst part about this perceived feud is stupid comments like that. I really can’t point out that there’s a dramatic difference in the quality of the pitchers from one game to the next without being accused of rubbing it in?

    Fuck that.

  6. bat guano on August 19th, 2008 5:04 pm

    What’s so stupid about that comment?

  7. DMZ on August 19th, 2008 5:06 pm

    Please re-apply my previous comment.

  8. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 5:07 pm

    Ha!

  9. Breadbaker on August 19th, 2008 5:08 pm

    There’s the old joke about people who use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination.

    The value of the statistics at the top of the page is that they show, in a reasonable sample size, that Pitcher A is a significantly worse pitcher than Pitcher B. You can also project that Pitcher B is likely to have some significant swings in his BABIP, because ground balls can find holes (particularly with the doublemint twins playing SS and 2B), and that doesn’t even out in the course of a season. Even if they were the same age, though, you’d know that Pitcher B will have a better and a longer career (barring injury) because of the strikeout rate.

  10. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 5:11 pm

    Looks like Gameday doesn’t want to acknowledge the existence of this game.

  11. pygmalion on August 19th, 2008 5:14 pm

    And Yahoo is only recognizing the CWS lineup and pitcher. Hey, I understand not wishing to recognize a Mariner lineup, but Felix is pitching!

  12. MG8222 on August 19th, 2008 5:15 pm

    Classic Mariner baseball

  13. bat guano on August 19th, 2008 5:15 pm

    Look, anybody with reasonable intelligence who follows the Mariners closely and objectively knows that Felix and Washburn are in different universes as pitchers. I wholeheartedly agree that Washburn should have been gone a week ago. And your write up this morning was hilarious and right on, and Baker’s column defending keeping him was silly. But it’s also my opinion that you’ve more than made your point, and I don’t think it’s “stupid” to point that out as well. That’s all.

  14. Breadbaker on August 19th, 2008 5:18 pm

    The kind of thing I’d love to have the time to play with Retrosheet to discover: what is the major league record for a team having a guy on third with none out and never scoring? It seems like the M’s do it every other game.

  15. Carson on August 19th, 2008 5:19 pm

    Haha. His user name is bat guano. Get it?!

  16. pygmalion on August 19th, 2008 5:21 pm

    Wow I finally got play by play of the game and yes I know that Ibanez has been fantastic but that was craptastic offense on display.

  17. DMZ on August 19th, 2008 5:22 pm

    It is stupid. Should I really not toss up a random table summarizing the difference between yesterday and today’s starter because you, or anyone, might perceive it as “rubbing it in”?

    Ridiculous. We’re never going to not write what we want just because the most fluffy and sensitive of our readers might read something into it.

    It was a fun blurb. That’s it.

  18. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 5:23 pm

    Oh Felix, throw some strikes.

  19. Karen on August 19th, 2008 5:24 pm

    Can we observe that you’re getting a mite testy, DMZ? :)

    ===

    (re: Felix throwing strikes) Maybe he wishes that the Mariners traded HIM….

    (just kidding! please don’t take my head off!!)

  20. pygmalion on August 19th, 2008 5:25 pm

    That’s the Felix we love. There is no pitcher I trust more with runners on base than the King.

  21. DMZ on August 19th, 2008 5:25 pm

    Yes. Yes you can.

  22. msb on August 19th, 2008 5:28 pm

    because USSM never uses tables and charts and graphics.

    oh, wait.

  23. DMZ on August 19th, 2008 5:29 pm

    Hit ball to center!

  24. pygmalion on August 19th, 2008 5:32 pm

    Actually I think that when USSM is right, it should rub it in even more. I think that we should get a big table with all the players that Dave or DMZ has recommended signing and then another big table with all the ones that the Mariners did sign.

  25. CC03 on August 19th, 2008 5:37 pm

    That cb Felix threw to Jr was pretty nasty.

    We want more of those.

  26. msb on August 19th, 2008 5:38 pm

    you know, Junior always had a booty (he once claimed it was the source of his power) but I think he now has a boo-tay.

  27. juneau_fan on August 19th, 2008 5:39 pm

    A guy on third scores! What a concept!

    And Nick Swisher is just getting odder and odder with the facial hair.

  28. DMZ on August 19th, 2008 5:40 pm

    I blame myself for comparing Felix to Washburn.

  29. bat guano on August 19th, 2008 5:40 pm

    I actually agree with that comment, pygmalion. My issue with the other table is that it seemed like it was aimed at Baker. Like I said before, it’s the front office that is really making us miserable. If there’s a way to get them to start thinking more like USSM (which I doubt), I’m all for it.

  30. msb on August 19th, 2008 5:41 pm

    did I mention that I love Beltre?

  31. pygmalion on August 19th, 2008 5:46 pm

    “If there’s a way to get them to start thinking more like USSM (which I doubt), I’m all for it.”

    Even if they don’t get clued in, it’s like waiting for the old guard in a science to adopt a new paradigm. You just need to wait for them to grow so old that they retire.* For those of us younger than Chuck and Howard, there’s at least hope in that.

    * Or die off, but I didn’t want to be morbid.

  32. Breadbaker on August 19th, 2008 5:49 pm

    Our offense is apparently entirely Egyptian tonight.

  33. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 5:54 pm

    while beltre’s defense is second to none . . . from an august 19, 2008 point of view, should the beltre signing be viewed as a success ? keeping in mind of course, overall roster construction and allocation of resources.

  34. Vortex on August 19th, 2008 5:55 pm

    Clearly moving a suspect corner fielder to center field will fix the defense right? Right? Kinda like moving to Batista to the pen made him awesome….oh wait

  35. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 5:58 pm

    Quentin is an MVP candidate, he does everything.

  36. G-Man on August 19th, 2008 5:59 pm

    I hope that Ichiro will see the impossibility of Wlad B in center and ask to resume his post there, though perhaps not until next spring.

  37. Steve T on August 19th, 2008 6:03 pm

    Anybody who’s not a little testy this season hasn’t been paying attention.

  38. msb on August 19th, 2008 6:03 pm

    Our offense is apparently entirely Egyptian tonight.

    arms wrapped to their chest and covered in natron?

  39. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 6:05 pm

    Beltre!!!

  40. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 6:07 pm

    Steve T:

    You are absolutely correct. I find it best to just raid the liquor cabinet and throw out random observations of the game.

  41. Tom in Edmonds on August 19th, 2008 6:14 pm

    If it wasn’t for bad luck we would have none…

    Whew!

  42. juneau_fan on August 19th, 2008 6:14 pm

    Why does it seem like Felix either gets nailed, or nearly nailed, every game by a hit ball?

    Other than the Mariners are doomed…

  43. Sinking Away on August 19th, 2008 6:14 pm

    King Felix is looking a little like Freddie Garcia tonight. Ugh.

  44. MattThompson on August 19th, 2008 6:14 pm

    Damn it! That’s the King. Off with Uribe’s head.

  45. msb on August 19th, 2008 6:15 pm

    while beltre’s defense is second to none . . . from an august 19, 2008 point of view, should the beltre signing be viewed as a success ?

    see discussions here, here and here

  46. cody on August 19th, 2008 6:15 pm

    The Mariners are going belly-up.

  47. Breadbaker on August 19th, 2008 6:16 pm

    When we signed Beltre, our third base options were Greg Dobbs, Justin Leone and Scott Spiezio. I rest my case.

  48. MarinerDan on August 19th, 2008 6:18 pm

    King is starting to look like Washburn. Maybe Baker was right.

  49. great gonzalez on August 19th, 2008 6:19 pm

    “should the beltre signing be viewed as a success?”

    If by “success” you mean “paying good money for good performance”? AB rules. It’s paying people lots to be below average that is dumb.

  50. juneau_fan on August 19th, 2008 6:35 pm

    I bet those Chi Sox neighbors love the fact that they hit the most homers in the majors. *BOOM, BOOM*

  51. cody on August 19th, 2008 6:37 pm

    Wow.

    We really want Strasburg.

  52. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 6:50 pm

    ooh lah lah, looks like i touched a nerve. i think beltre is a fabulous player, but at the end of day, beltre is a great defender at a critcal position who is an average AL hitter.

    which number belong to beltre and which are the AL average (2006-08)
    .275/.328/.415
    .271/.338/427

    is this a quality allocation of resources ?

  53. Humongo on August 19th, 2008 6:52 pm

    Felix didn’t look good at all :(

  54. Go Felix on August 19th, 2008 7:02 pm

    Weird, an organization that acknowledges their failures. I suck at HTML so if the hyperlink doesn’t work then use the link below.

    Link

    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/cin/fan_forum/letter_to_fans.jsp

  55. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:05 pm

    If there’s a way to get them to start thinking more like USSM (which I doubt), I’m all for it.

    You do what you can. You educate the fanbase so that provably false and patently delusional comments by M’s management don’t just get swallowed without objection. You educate the “conventional” paid media, so someday they might ask tougher questions when they actually face the M’s management (which, thanks to the “access” they’re so proud of, they have the opportunity to do… even if they rarely have the cajones to make use of it). You convert people like Groz so that Joe Fan out there who doesn’t rely on a series of tubes to get his information still occasionally hears phrases like “defense independent pitching” and “replacement level player.” And yes, you wait for the old guard to retire or die off (nothing morbid about it — this is Seattle, we compost, they’ll find a higher purpose).

  56. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:06 pm

    I haven’t been watching the past couple of nights (seriously, even oddball Olympic events on CBC are better than watching this trainwreck of a team, even on Felix days) Have they shown anyone in the stands wearing a Griffey jersey… a Mariners Griffey jersey?

  57. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:08 pm

    ooh lah lah, looks like i touched a nerve.

    The flat earth people say this too when somebody gets tired of explaining for the nth time that Antarctica isn’t an exterior annular ring of ice walling off the edge of the planet.

    On a team with a $118M payroll, you’d have to fix a lot of other things before Beltre’s contract looks like a missallocation of resources.

  58. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 7:16 pm

    you guys think i’m arguing about whether or not beltre is a good player, i am simply asking if the signing was a success based on where this club sits on aug. 19, 2008.

    joser, what’s the matter ? i acknowledge that i am asking a question that elicits a response and you compare me to the flat earth people. can i assume that you agree with the rest of my statement ?

  59. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:18 pm

    So, Belantien’s “fielding” in the third is a classic example of how the traditional stats blow. Pierzynski gets awarded a double and, eventually, a run. Felix has his ERA (and WHIP) inflated. And Balentien doesn’t have an error marked against him. Somewhere somebody is led to believe Pierzynski is a better hitter and Felix is a worse pitcher than is actually the case (and has no opinion of Wlad as a fielder, since “there aren’t any” fielding stats).

  60. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 7:20 pm

    joser, i see how it’s going to be now. because of the other signings, we must view beltre’s as a success. that doesn’t seem to be a very good way of constructing a roster and using your resources.

  61. gwangung on August 19th, 2008 7:23 pm

    ooh lah lah, looks like i touched a nerve. i think beltre is a fabulous player, but at the end of day, beltre is a great defender at a critcal position who is an average AL hitter.

    In SAFECO??????

    Hrm.

  62. Steve T on August 19th, 2008 7:23 pm

    The people who think Beltre is a poor use of resources would be absolutely delighted with him if his defensive value was exactly average and his hitting was the same amount above average that his defense is. Value is easier to see and appreciate when it shows up in obvious batting stats, even though defense is just as important.

    It’s also not true that Beltre is “league average”. He’s a slightly above average hitter for 3B. If he’s +10 with the bat and +20 with the glove, he’s as valuable as a player who’s +30, +0, or slightly more so (it’s slightly better to save a run than score one).

    Beltre is solid value for money. He’s not the best bargain in the league but he’s not overpaid either. There are 129 other things about this club that are more damaging to our chances to win.

  63. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:23 pm

    It was the “touched a nerve” comment I was objecting to. Having to repeat something multiple times to correct persistent (and possibly malicious) assertions doesn’t make it less true.

    Was Beltre’s signing a success? Are you asking if he’s the cause of the team’s current difficulties? Are you suggesting that with his $12M to deploy elsewhere this past offseason they would’ve been winning the division? If the team had made different, smarter choices for other positions on the field and in the rotation, would we even be having this discussion?

  64. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 7:27 pm

    gwangung,
    which is the overall AL average, AL at safeco, beltre overall (2006-08)
    .270/.334/.410
    .271/.338/.427
    .275/.328/.415

    seems pretty close to me

  65. Sinking Away on August 19th, 2008 7:29 pm

    It’s games like this I’d like to see Batista out pitching the 8th and 9th. That might make him unavailable for games we actually might catch up and win.

  66. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 7:32 pm

    joser, i don’t think i was asking any of those things.
    in short, is 12M a fair price to pay for average hitter who plays great defense at 3rd base ?

  67. hititagainandagainandagain on August 19th, 2008 7:33 pm

    JR Ewing:

    You’ve touched a nerve, but imagine the outrage you would provoke if you even hinted that Beltre is <ahref=”http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2008&league_filter%5B%5D=1&pos_filter%5B%5D=5&Submit=Submit”>below league average in converting into outs balls hit into his zone.

  68. msb on August 19th, 2008 7:35 pm

    thinking of happier times, BBTN has gotten to the Ms in their “Best Franchise Player” thang, so Jr, Edgar & Ichiro to come in the next half hour …

  69. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 7:42 pm

    did betancourt just draw a walk ?

  70. juneau_fan on August 19th, 2008 7:42 pm

    Yuni takes a walk like a little leaguer, hurling his bat towards the dugout and running like he’s running out a groudball to first.

  71. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:43 pm

    in short, is 12M a fair price to pay for average hitter who plays great defense at 3rd base ?
    Well, you could just look at what Dave wrote at the end of last season:

    What would a 28-year-old with Beltre’s performance record command as a free agent this winter? Not even accounting for possible inflation, it’s almost impossible to believe that Beltre would do significantly worse than last year’s crop of similar hitters. $15 million a year for 5 years would be the starting spot for negotiations, and it’s not hard to see him getting into the 6 years, $100 million range that Carlos Lee ended up receiving.

    Or you could follow Dave’s walkthrough and calculate Beltre’s value vs his contract yourself (an exercise well worth doing, btw).

    Or you could just let Dave do that for you and figure out Beltre will be underpaid next year as well.

    (Of course, anything could happen. Heck, Betancourt could get a walk against Jenks, for example)

  72. John in L.A. on August 19th, 2008 7:49 pm

    JR Ewing — “joser, i don’t think i was asking any of those things.”

    I think you should decide what you’re asking, then start over. Your switching is making me dizzy.

    One of my favorite things I’ve read by a poster here this year was someone quoting Bill James about “Bad teams blame their best players.” Or something to that effect.*

    And, boy, have I seen that play out with my two favorite teams – the Dolphins and the Mariners.

    *No, I’m not saying Beltre is the M’s best player. But he is so far from the problem, it’s funny every time someone starts blaming him.

  73. Tom in Edmonds on August 19th, 2008 7:49 pm

    Seems to be a lot of exposed nerves…

    The king is off his game.

    I cannot imagine why.

    5-0 Soxs. M’s lose #79.

  74. joser on August 19th, 2008 7:50 pm

    So this week I find myself listening to the M’s game just waiting for it to be over so my local bar will switch over to the Olympics so I can go down and watch. Much as I used to check on the Sonics in past springs, waiting for the basketball to be over so they’d switch over to the M’s game.

    Man, the women’s softball is more exciting than this team. Heck, the trampoline finals were more riveting.

  75. msb on August 19th, 2008 7:53 pm

    boy, there is just no catching the Nats, is there.

  76. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 7:53 pm

    you guys are comical . . .
    i asked a single question and you guys just assumed that i had an opinion that was different from yours.

  77. JMHawkins on August 19th, 2008 7:53 pm

    On the other hand, the M’s wouldn’t have missed the playoffs and probably wouldn’t have finished last any more often with Greg Dobbs at third than with Beltre there. So, maybe $12M is a bit of waste, regardless of how well Beltre has played.

    I mean, really, if you’re going to spend $30M a year on a trio of washed up #5 pitchers and run out a lineup that gets 1-hit by every journeyman and AAAA starter in the league, why bother signing an expensive thirdbaseman?

  78. msb on August 19th, 2008 7:55 pm

    Man, the women’s softball is more exciting than this team.

    women’s softball can be more exciting than a lot of things.

  79. gwangung on August 19th, 2008 7:58 pm

    gwangung,
    which is the overall AL average, AL at safeco, beltre overall (2006-08)
    .270/.334/.410
    .271/.338/.427
    .275/.328/.415
    seems pretty close to me

    Hrm.

    Think hard (because it’s not obvious that you’re doing so yet). What’s Beltre’s handedess? How does that affect his numbers in Safeco? How does Safeco affect those who aren’t Beltre’s handedness? Should you lump all batters together then?

    You may prove ultimately correct, but it seems to me that you’re using stats more as a support than as illumination here.

    (And, mind you, we’re not getting to a second point where it seems that you’re undervaluing defense in the scheme of things).

  80. gwangung on August 19th, 2008 8:01 pm

    you guys are comical . . .
    i asked a single question and you guys just assumed that i had an opinion that was different from yours.

    Well, let’s just see if we’re starting out from the same place. That might help, no?

    It’s comical, because it seems to me that you’re assuming agreement on things that we may not actually agree on.

  81. hititagainandagainandagain on August 19th, 2008 8:04 pm

    Beltre’s .732 OPS puts him at 16 out of 19 qualified third basemen this season.

    His .792 OPS put him at 13 out of 19 qualified third basemen in 2006.

  82. joser on August 19th, 2008 8:05 pm

    Actually, the women’s softball that I’ve watched so far has rivaled most MLB games I’ve seen this season, especially in terms of dominating pitching performances. It was amusing to see Lauren Bay take a no hitter into the 5th inning (on tape) while her brother was getting no-hit by the Jays at Fenway (live). (Her final line at the ’04 Athens games: 5 appearances, 17 IP, 36K, 0.41 ERA).

  83. joser on August 19th, 2008 8:08 pm

    i asked a single question and you guys just assumed that i had an opinion that was different from yours.

    No, we assumed you hadn’t lifted a finger to do a little research, which is why the first response you got was a bunch of links.

  84. gwangung on August 19th, 2008 8:08 pm

    Beltre’s .732 OPS puts him at 16 out of 19 qualified third basemen this season.
    His .792 OPS put him at 13 out of 19 qualified third basemen in 2006.

    Ah crap, I give up.

  85. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 8:09 pm

    gwangung,
    others brought stats into this. i was actually ready to proclaim beltre to be a “better than average” AL hitter.

    hawkins, as i said early, i was never suggesting that beltre is a problem, i was simply asking if 12M is worthy price to pay for Beltre in context of building a roster and allocating your resources. seems to me, i was making a general inquiry.

    gwangung, is it necessary to for me to indicate a starting poistion prior to asking a question. where did i assume we agree ?

  86. joser on August 19th, 2008 8:09 pm

    And OPS factors defense into total contribution when answering questions about value how, exactly?

    Should I just stop posting links? I mean, I can code an anchor tag in my sleep but I do have to go grab the URLs. If nobody is actually clicking on them I’d be quite happy to not do that work.

  87. joser on August 19th, 2008 8:16 pm

    BTW, in other news, does the fact that Bedard is no longer the only pitcher in that trade on the disabled list make people feel better, or worse?

  88. JR Ewing on August 19th, 2008 8:17 pm

    joser, i read all three links. two were written last sept, and one was written in late april.

  89. hititagainandagainandagain on August 19th, 2008 8:18 pm

    Joser —

    If you read the three posts that you cited, particularly the 7/23/08 post, you will quickly grasp that Dave’s assumption that Beltre will be underpaid in 2009 is based on another assumption — that Beltre’s wOBA for 2009 will be .340 (league average).

    That assumption is at least debatable, given Beltre’s 2006 and 2008 performance…

  90. JMHawkins on August 19th, 2008 8:20 pm

    hawkins, as i said early, i was never suggesting that beltre is a problem, i was simply asking if 12M is worthy price to pay for Beltre in context of building a roster and allocating your resources. seems to me, i was making a general inquiry.

    Pardon me, was I arguing with you? Sorry if you got that impression, but frankly, and I don’t know how to put this politely, I wouldn’t waste my time tonight. You’re all over the map in this thread, and seem rather more eager to disagree with people than to discuss anything potentially interesting. Case in point, your response to me.

    Whether you mean to or not, you’re trolling with this Beltre thing. If that’s not what you meant to do, maybe you should step back and re-evaluate your responses and recalibrate your hackle-raising mechanism.

  91. Mike Snow on August 19th, 2008 8:30 pm

    BTW, in other news, does the fact that Bedard is no longer the only pitcher in that trade on the disabled list make people feel better, or worse?

    I’d say it matters relatively little. I suppose it could be interpreted as a vindication of how the team used Sherrill when he was here. They’ve shown a tendency to underutilize their best relievers, at least from a theoretical sabermetric perspective, usually justifying this with expressions of concern about durability (see also Rafael Soriano). So maybe those guys are physically overtaxed by the closer role and better off in the 7th or 8th inning where managers focus more on platoon advantages. But it’s not like Putz has been injury-free, either.

    Anyway, Sherrill was effectively only the third-most-valuable piece of that trade. I’d be much more concerned about the development of Tillman, who may soon be as good a pitcher as Bedard all by himself, and probably more durable too.

  92. true_slicky on August 19th, 2008 8:44 pm

    So I turn on the TV last night just in time to see Orlando Cabrera slap out at JaWa’s pitch and somehow deposit it over the fence.

    I turn on the radio tonight to hear Thome take Felix’s pitch out of the ballpark, and I think it landed in Gary or something.

    Well this summer please end all ready?

    What organ do I have to donate for a quality start?

  93. Tom in Edmonds on August 19th, 2008 8:57 pm

    Donate them all when you die Slicky…

    Help yourself with them while you can!

    Can the Nats not win B4 Bush is gone?

  94. msb on August 19th, 2008 9:28 pm

    Larry Stone sums it up for us.

  95. JMHawkins on August 19th, 2008 10:00 pm

    I’d say it matters relatively little. I suppose it could be interpreted as a vindication of how the team used Sherrill when he was here.

    I’d say it also underscores the fagilitiy of pitchers in general. But I’m starting to wonder if that entire trade was such an affront to the baseball gods that all the players involved are cursed.

  96. Carson on August 19th, 2008 10:07 pm

    I’m interested to see what high road is taken tomorrow morning.

  97. msb on August 19th, 2008 10:48 pm

    It was amusing to see Lauren Bay take a no hitter into the 5th inning (on tape) while her brother was getting no-hit by the Jays at Fenway (live)

    and they are currently throwing her again, to get a chance to advance to the Gold Medal game vs the US

  98. eponymous coward on August 19th, 2008 11:07 pm

    while beltre’s defense is second to none . . . from an august 19, 2008 point of view, should the beltre signing be viewed as a success ? keeping in mind of course, overall roster construction and allocation of resources.

    Why would the Beltre signing be anything other than a success, especially compared to the Silva/Washburn/Batista/Sexson/Johjima/Betancourt signings, or, say, the Bedard or Vidro trades?

    It seems to me the fact that Adrian Beltre isn’t hitting like it’s 2004 is pretty low on the list of why the Mariners are en route to a disastrous season on August 19, 2008 compared to THOSE signings.

  99. Jeff Nye on August 19th, 2008 11:25 pm

    At this point, it’s not really worth trying to educate people who still want to consider the Beltre signing a bad one.

  100. joser on August 20th, 2008 1:20 am

    Yes, that Win Values post post is from February. But it doesn’t go stale and bad like fish. It’s not fish. It’s instructions on how to fish.

    It’s late, and I’m tired, so I’m going to do this fast with minimal double-checking, but:

    wOBA = (0.72 BB + 0.75 HBP + 0.90 1B + 0.92 RBOE + 1.24 2B + 1.56 3B + 1.95 HR) / PA

    For Beltre, as of August 19 2008, that comes out to .323, which puts him slightly below AL league average for all hitters (and below Dave’s projection, though it’s worth noting that August historically is his best month, so he could still improve). That’s only works out to about one win’s difference below that projection, though. Then you have to add the positional adjustments and the defensive data, which gets tricky, because you really want to use all the available evaluations and not all of them are free (or available to a cheapskate like me). When projecting Beltre for ’09 Dave used a .5 adjustment (or roughly 5 runs, which seems very conservative), so if we use that we end up with him as about a 1.7 win player — which should be worth about $8.5M on the open market. So, at $12M is he overpaid? Maybe, though the season’s not done yet (pro-rated, the M’s have only paid him for 125/162 = 77% of the season, or $9.25M) and he may yet take things higher. But even if he doesn’t, it’s not at all clear that (a) he isn’t better than I’ve just given him credit for defensively (especially with a groundball-oriented pitchers in the rotation), or (b) that $3.5M is wasted on Beltre when you consider every other rat hole the M’s have stuffed with money this season (Jose Vidro says hello). He was also somewhat underpaid considering his performance in ’06 and ’07, so you can take a life-of-the-contract approach as well. Would I offer him another contract after ’09? Probably not; like a lot of people back in July, I wouldn’t have been afraid to trade him for a reasonable return, and I’d certainly entertain offers this offseason or let him walk after ’09 for the draft picks. But to get back to your question:

    “Is 12M a fair price to pay for average hitter who plays great defense at 3rd base?”

    The answer is clearly yes. Unfortunately, at the moment, Beltre isn’t quite that player (though he has been the past couple of years).

    BTW, Tango suggests that 56% of your payroll should go to the 8 starting fielders, or perhaps a little more. Beltre is getting roughly 10% of the 2008 payroll, so the team couldn’t afford 8 Beltres; but then again, it doesn’t have 8 (and it would be much better if it had another one or two, even if it had to pay for them).

  101. JR Ewing on August 20th, 2008 8:18 am

    jeff nye, where do find my opinion that beltre is a bad signing ?

  102. DMZ on August 20th, 2008 8:24 am

    Please use the shift keys.

  103. JR Ewing on August 20th, 2008 9:24 am

    FWIW, It looks like Ozzie Guillen is bringing all the big guns to play today.

  104. bratman on August 20th, 2008 12:46 pm

    “I blame myself for comparing Felix to Washburn.”

    That is comedy.

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