Mariner GM Handicapping for Wednesday, 10/1

DMZ · October 1, 2008 at 8:30 am · Filed Under Mariners 

A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.

For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.

Who (links) Percent
Hahn (1) 30%
LaCava (1, 2) 30%
Ng (1, 2) 15%
Woodfork 7%
Avila 3%
DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer 2%
Antonetti (1) 1%
Evans 1%
Forst 1%
Pelekoudas 1%
White 1%
Bulk candidates  
Sitting GM 3%
Field 5%

“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.


33 Responses to “Mariner GM Handicapping for Wednesday, 10/1”

  1. msb on October 1st, 2008 8:42 am

    thanks for the links

  2. robbbbbb on October 1st, 2008 8:48 am

    When do we expect the Mariners to interview/hire?

  3. Mike Snow on October 1st, 2008 8:53 am

    They’ve said they’ll be interviewing through the playoffs, and a hire will probably be announced either a little before or after the World Series (not during, which is frowned upon).

  4. gwangung on October 1st, 2008 9:01 am

    Honestly, the top four names are people I’d be comfortable with.

    No guarantees for success, but that group seems to have higher chances for success than a lot of the other folks.

  5. isaac on October 1st, 2008 9:17 am

    Is Woodfork’s dropping 14% just a function of the increased sourced reportage and idle chatter about Hahn, LaCava, and Ng (collectively up 17%) pushing them up and therefore dropping him down, or are there specific rumors that he’s not in favor?

    Armstrong’s statement about being blind to color or gender suggests that Woodfork, who is African-American, will at least get an interview.

  6. PositivePaul on October 1st, 2008 9:19 am

    So, can this be like the saber-equivalent of the hydro races? If so, then:


  7. JMHawkins on October 1st, 2008 9:22 am

    The “no wagering” admonition of course makes me want to wager…

    Could be fun. Set up an intertrade-like game where you trade futures on who gets the GM pick. Yeah, can’t have gambling, so maybe all the money goes to a new USSM server and the winner(s) get public adoration.

  8. msb on October 1st, 2008 9:23 am

    Baker (in the midst of explaining how trustworthy his source is, how fractured the clubhouse & ‘entitled’ the veterans are, and that other players think Ichiro is wierd because he uses a fan) gave a thumbs-up to LaCava for his ability to bridge the scouting-minded & the stat-minded worlds

  9. DMZ on October 1st, 2008 9:53 am

    Yeah, Baker’s been pushing LaCava since just after we first mentioned him. I suspect he knows him from his Blue Jays time, so he’s familiar and comfortable being so open in supporting him.

  10. DMZ on October 1st, 2008 9:54 am

    JM: It’s funny, I’ve looked into deploying idea futures markets for USSM to do predictions and stuff, and I just haven’t had the time to make any progress. I thought it would be awesome too.

  11. matthew on October 1st, 2008 10:20 am

    LaCava is a Steelers fan, so I don’t know if I want him as our new GM.

    Just kidding. Sort of…

    It’s going to take a long time to get over Super Bowl 40. Especially without the Sonics to bridge us from Football to Baseball season in Seattle…

  12. msb on October 1st, 2008 10:26 am

    Yeah, Baker’s been pushing LaCava since just after we first mentioned him. I suspect he knows him from his Blue Jays time, so he’s familiar and comfortable being so open in supporting him.

    that’s just what he said– that because he knows him, he can talk about him more than other candidates.

  13. Benne on October 1st, 2008 10:40 am

    Go Ng go!

  14. joser on October 1st, 2008 11:22 am

    You know what I’d give a huge amount to know? When we get the press release saying “Mariners Introduce X as New General Manager” what name would Billy Beane least like to see?

  15. dnc on October 1st, 2008 11:54 am


  16. VictorB on October 1st, 2008 12:13 pm


    Well, sure, but in large in part because his life becomes harder internally. Whom other than Forst makes his life harder due to competition?

  17. TheogotmyCHERRIngtonx on October 1st, 2008 2:04 pm

    [deleted, you have no idea what you’re talking about]

  18. smb on October 1st, 2008 2:57 pm

    I can see the headline now: M’s Hire New GM, Go From Worst to Forst

  19. TheogotmyCHERRIngtonx on October 1st, 2008 3:19 pm

    Forst has a sweet gig in Oakland and will likely not leave until something where he can have complete control like his bosses comes open. Or it will be a repeat of DePostda.
    Think about the simularities between McCourt and Linclon/Armstrong, it would be messy.

  20. killer_ewok18 on October 1st, 2008 4:51 pm

    You could work for the AP! But then we would have to kill you.

  21. Adam S on October 1st, 2008 6:23 pm

    Is Antonetti at 1% a reflection of his lack of interest in the job, or the Mariners lack of wisdom in making the hiring decision?

  22. The Ancient Mariner on October 1st, 2008 7:49 pm

    If we hire a Kenny Williams disciple as our next GM, I will seriously scream.

  23. gwangung on October 1st, 2008 7:55 pm

    If we hire a Kenny Williams disciple as our next GM, I will seriously scream.

    On the other hand, he may be the part of the team that gets it right….

  24. Mike Snow on October 1st, 2008 10:16 pm

    Is Antonetti at 1% a reflection of his lack of interest in the job, or the Mariners lack of wisdom in making the hiring decision?

    Recurring reports that some kind of arrangement would discourage if not prevent him from interviewing. A contract like DePodesta, an understanding that he’ll succeed Shapiro, something like that. To me it looks like teams are stepping up the extent to which they lock up front office talent, rather than letting them get away under the tradition that you don’t stand in the way when they have a chance at a promotion.

  25. Bad Moon on October 2nd, 2008 6:39 am

    In the case of Ng: Yes she is ready but she needs a good upper-management and ownership to be successful. Seattle has neither, also she needs to be a National League GM first before she makes the move to the AL because she has only ever worked in the NL. Many need time to adjust( back to Theo as an example he had almost the entire 2002 season in the AL before assuming the top job).

    Please challenge me if you disagree.

    Uh, you are aware Ng spent years in the American League working with various clubs as an analyst and later waivers director? Plus, before taking her current job with the Dodgers she was assistant GM to that famed small market team called the Yankees.

  26. Patton on October 2nd, 2008 7:15 am

    Dan Jennings was just mentioned on Mitch in the Morning by Jayson Stark as the guy he’d pick. He’s Beinfest’s assistant.

    Apparently he worked for the M’s and is paid general managers salary because they really don’t want him to leave.

  27. msb on October 2nd, 2008 7:43 am

    the first three names Stark thought the M’s would look at were Kevin Towers, Jennings and Gerry Hunsicker. When asked about Ng, he thought she was smart and nice and would rate an interview, but that the M’s were likely not the team that will first hire her, and that there were various assistants that would also get looked at, like DiPoto & Hoyer

  28. msb on October 2nd, 2008 7:48 am

    Hickey laments the loss of big name candidates this morning

  29. joser on October 2nd, 2008 10:14 am

    Of course he does. It’s easy to write about the big names. To write about the lesser-knowns he has to do some, you know, work.

    I’m convinced that — with a couple of notable exceptions — just about everything and everyone the sportswriters in this town decide to like or dislike is driven primarily (and in many cases entirely) by what makes their own lives easier or more difficult.

  30. Wishhiker on October 2nd, 2008 11:53 am

    Isn’t it good for the team that some of the names with GM experience are off the table? I may like some of the fresh blood that’s off the table but, regardless of their understanding and philosophies, I had little hope that there was a chance Towers would leave and would have trouble hoping for Cashman or Epstein to come here. I’m not saying that they aren’t capable GM’s, because they have proven that they are, to varying degrees.

    DePodesta’s omission is a disappointment, though I doubt the M’s would have gone there anyhow. He does list one with previous experience who’d be a more interesting choice, Terry Ryan. Not too disappointed about him being out of the conversation either, though.

    On the leader-board: I like Lacava, but Hahn and Ng both seem like only half a hire as long as they’d need to then hire a good talent evaluator to complete themselves. Maybe Engle and Fontaine are enough for that, but I worry a little at Looper still being around as well as whether Fontaine might want out.

    Is there a reason nobody is talking about Mike Chernoff, with Antonetti off the table? Is it too soon for him now?

  31. Carson on October 2nd, 2008 11:53 am

    It really is difficult getting much out of the local coverage. He says things like: “someone like Toronto’s Tony LaCava or the A’s David Forst.”

    So, is it those guys, or guys like them, exluding them? You assume the casual fan knows anything about David Forst or Tony LaCava?

    On a side note, Derek, all of a sudden the right side bar is on the bottom of the page below all other content. I’m at work using IE, so not sure what Firefox looks like.

  32. Mariner Melee on October 2nd, 2008 3:19 pm

    “There are people we want to talk to who have signed contracts with their current team that don’t allow them to seek another position,” Armstrong said. “We’ve called a number of clubs to seek permission to interview one of their employees and run into these contracts.”

    That kind of deal goes against the baseball norm, whether it’s a coach asked to interview for an open managerial job or a front office type given a shot at moving up the ladder.
    In fact, commissioner Bud Selig apparently hadn’t heard of such contracts, and his office is looking into the matter.


    David, Derek?
    What is this all about?

  33. msb on October 3rd, 2008 7:54 am

    interesting, huh?

    the other line I liked was: “Not everyone mentioned in stories was a candidate,” Armstrong said, “and there hasn’t been complete accuracy on candidates who’ve been eliminated, either.”

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