How much of a bargain does Griffey have to be?
Condensed Hickey: the M’s
could do a lot worse than bring Griffey back to Seattle with a low-cost, potentially high-reward contract for 2009.
It’s hard for me to grasp this, but Griffey will be 39 next season. Over the last three years, he’s played 132 games/year, averaged 482 at-bats, and hit about .260/.350/.470. If he’d agree to give up the field (and since his preference seems to be that he play center, then right grudgingly, that isn’t a given), that beats an average AL DH’s line of .256/.339/.435, but not by a lot. If we factor in a tiny bit of aging, Griffey would probably be worth 10-20 runs over picking some lumbering no-glove type off the transaction driftwood pile and stuffing them into the slot.
That’s worth $5-10m on a one-year deal if you get 162 games out of him. But considering that you still need to find some way to get another 30 DH games out of there, there’s another discount you need to get to make this a break-even proposition, and now you’re at $4m-$8m.
Anything beyond that has to be the M’s getting money back in non-baseball reasons from Griffey love, and we’ve touched on this before — this kind of thing might get them a brief spike, but it’s not as if there’ll be a massive swell of season-ticket buyers renewing over this news. Otherwise it’s faith in a year-39 career resurgence for Griffey based on things like “Safeco Field was designed for him” (though he didn’t like hitting here) and feel-good wishing.
I don’t think Griffey will sign anywhere for a contract low enough to make it what Hickey wants here. A bargain contract based on his likely contributions as a DH, say a 50% discount to the value he’d contribute on the field would mean he signs a one-year, $2-$4m deal. That seems unlikely on its face. That the M’s have done much worse, as Hickey notes, doesn’t mean that they can’t do much better.
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What is today? Oh, right.
Now this post here is an illustration of why I come here. I don’t always agree with you guys (and that seems to get me in trouble) but I couldn’t agree with this sentiment more. Griffey coming back would be feel-good but more than likely a failure from his production standpoint.
I wouldnt have an issue with it. I have ZERO expectations of competing next year. So sticking Griffey at DH or having him play a little outfield doesn’t bother me.
It would seem a $4 – $8 deal would be fair for both sides with possibly a 2nd year option that could vest on 2009 PA’s (Griffey came out today saying he wants to play 3 more years).
I would envision a similar (but slightly more expensive) version of what Cliff Floyd worked out in Tampa. He could probably get the majority of the DH at bats in the beginning of the contract but as the season wore on he probably would see a platoon partner and more days off. Last year he hit .272/.379/.462 against Righties in 388 PAs.
My only concern would be the AB’s he would steal from developing players as the team tries to become competitive in 2010 and beyond.
Signing Griffey would mean one thing: all this talk about the future and turning over a new leaf and putting the past behind us and trying to build a good baseball team with the new GM is BULLSHIT; we’re going to do the same old, same old, hire 900-year-old has-beens for reasons that have nothing to do with baseball, and we’re going to suck again, and we’re going to suck forever.
If they sign Griffey I’m going to ritually burn all of my Mariners baseball cards and my cap and all the other detritus I’ve accumulated, and become a full-time A’s fan.
Things is, though, I don’t think we can figure he’d be better than a generic DH. We’d have to weight his most recent season heaviest out of all the three, and that line is .249/.353/.424, with a lot of that compiled in the weaker league (NL), and all his home games in good hitter’s parks in Cincinnati and Chicago.
He’s also got lousy platoon splits that make him basically useless against LHP, and he’s a terrible defensive player. Basically, Griffey is a version of Raul Ibañez who is a lot more likely to collapse in 2009 (complete with bad hamstrings), and less likely to have Raul’s typical .290/.345/.475 season. I just don’t see how Griffey helps you unless he’s at bargain-basement prices, and even then I think he’s a high likelihood to collapse- typically, when the walks go up and the power disappears ala Griffey, Mays or any number of older players, it’s them working the count desperately trying to get any pitch they can hit, and what happens is pitchers adjust and throw strikes, realizing they can’t drive them any more.
There’s a poll at King5.com asking the question about whether the fans want to bring Griffey back. The two “yes” options (“Yes, regardless of the price” and “Yes, if the price is right”) are currently destroying the “No” and “Not sure” options.
I can definitely envision Howard and Chuck lobbying hard to bring him back.
One good thing is that if Griffey were back, during the month of September when the M’s will probably have been out of the playoff race for a few months on their way to a 75 win season, people might actually go to games just in case they might be witnessing the last few at bats of a future hall of famer.
My thought would be, if we’re not going to contend anyways, and he gives us more value (in ticket sales) than say another franchise, and he’s not taking bats away from a prospect (like Clement), then by all means sign him. Just sign him for a profit, and don’t let him play the outfield much (if at all).
If I recall correctly, Griffey is no longer comfortable playing center and was hesitant to join the White Sox because they asked him to do so.
The argument that “we aren’t going to compete next year anyway” is retarded and pisses me off to no end. Are people ACTUALLY resigned to the view that the M’s won’t be good in 09′, so why even try? Ugh!!!
On one hand, like tealfan, I’d be okay with letting Griffey have a ‘09 Farewell Tour in a Seattle uniform. It’s unlikely the M’s will contend, he wouldn’t be blocking anyone’s advacement, and I think the team could fill in the missing PAs by resting regulars. To a large degree, it would be orthogonal to the real problems the team has.
But on the other hand, Steve T hits the nail on the head. It would seems way, way too much like more of the same old failed ideas. “Well, we still need some left-handed sock, and a good clubhouse leader…”
Unless of course, Zduriencik first made a series of brilliant moves that demonstrated it wasn’t going to be “same strategy, better execution.” If he fixed up the middle infield, cleared deadwood from the rotation, found a good’n'cheap 1B solution, and put a glove in Left, we could maybe trust him. Then bringing in Griffey as a 2009 human interest story would go back into the “I can live with it, heck maybe it might even be cool to see The Kid again” bucket.
BB, I can’t speak for everyone, but my attitude is, the M’s probalby need more than one year to fix all the problems that need fixing for them to be reliable contenders. That doesn’t mean they must be awful in 2009, just that nobody should be expecting them to be in a pennant race until 2010.
Now, as Dave demonstrated with a post a while back, it’s not out of the question for the M’s to be contenders in 2009 if they make some really smart moves, but the hiring of Zduriencik sends the signal that the team wants to build through the farm system and probably won’t be making the short term moves to make 2009 a contending year.
How long would it take for the “warm and fuzzy” to wear off should KGJ decline further and/or get injured and only play 40 games? My bet would be not long. I think the people who like this idea need to really think about all of the possible bad ways that this could end. Do we really want our last memory of Griff to be someone we don’t want in the lineup, or someone who was DFA’s in May?
I agree with the “cannot get my head around” Griffey being 39. I remember when I was 12 years old in 1989, and just starting to like baseball in Vancouver. And there was Griffey down the road. How exciting! And now he is set to retire soon.
I would love, emotionally to see him have his last at-bat in a Mariners uniform. Practically, no, not really. But just for fun, I think of the last game in 2009, with Edgar and the Bone at the game (heck make them the 1st and 3rd base coaches, just for one night!). It would be a fun one.
But I would rather either they find someone better OR if Raul accepts arbitration that he be the DH (and I think when they offer Raul arb. they should make it clear that he will ONLY be the DH on 09)
JMH, I guess my main gripe with that argument is that while the team shouldn’t be realistically expected to compete in 09′, I’d at least like to see forward progress. To me, Griffey represents a living in the past, grasping onto former glory attitude rather than looking towards the future. It just “feels” like a very “old Mariners” thing to do.
I’m in the “he’d have to be free, and not blocking anybody important” camp. Even then I’d likely say no; but then I’m probably one of the few here with almost no warm and fuzzy memories of Jr because his tenure matched up with the period in my life when I was doing everything but pay attention to baseball (after following the team from its inception through the mid 80s — a period that is giving me remarkable deja vu right now).
Maybe they can pull a Yankees/Clemens thing with him — let him work out and get/stay healthy without wearing himself out, then sign him to a limited contract in June, at about the point where the awful realities of the ‘09 season are sinking in, just in time to goose attendance through the key summer months.
Hip hop hooray!!!! Hooooo!!!!! Heyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!! Hooooooo!!!!!!
Put me in the “if the price is right” camp (and if he’ll DH, too). I fully admit emotion is part of this; it’d be cool/right for him to end his career back in Seattle.
From a baseball standpoint, keeping him out of the field should potentially keep him healthier as well. It’s not like he’d be blocking anyone at DH, and Safeco really should fit his swing, even if he didn’t like the handful of games he played in Seattle nearly ten years ago.
MLB is showing the Phillies parade, and the weather is absolutely gorgeous– according to Mitch Williams, it’s because Marzy, Tug & Vuk didn’t want any clouds obscuring their view …
I think we have to choose between Raul and Junior. If sign both, one has to play in the field. If we decide to let Raul go, then sign Junior I guess.
…However, it doesn’t make any sense to let Raul go, and then turn around and sign Junior.
One year, and no more than $2 million — what could it hurt? I’m with Jason, but the right price is pretty low; much more than that, and I wouldn’t be too happy.
Can the Ms afford to pay $4-8M for half of their DH platoon?
I’d be ok with a cheap DH retirement package, but he looked so bad at times last year…
Kirby Arnold votes nay.
Bring in Jr. at the right price as the DH only. If the M’s stink and he does well then trade him at the deadline to contender for a prospect, if he doesn’t do well and can’t be traded then let him ride out the season and the M’s fans can enjoy one more season of Jr. Seems like a low risk if he’s willing to accept this type of situaton.
The question is simply this: are you willing to slow down the process of this team eventually being a contender for the right to watch Junior hit 10-15 home runs while striking out and reminding everyone that he’s old on a daily basis?
If your answer is yes, then I don’t know what to say. You love nostalgia so much more than I do that I can’t relate.
To me, the answer is so obviously no, regardless of the price. He could offer to sign for the league minimum and I’d still say no thanks.
Every at-bat Junior gets is one that couldn’t be given to a 24-27 year old with some upside (say, Brad Nelson!) who could actually help this team win in the future. Forget whether or not he might be a few runs better or worse this year. It’s all about the opportunity cost. Junior’s presence means that there’s one less spot, and a few hundred less at-bats, for someone who could be part of the next good Mariner team.
For those of us who want the team to be winners, I’m not sure how you can be okay with that cost. They can’t afford to waste any more opportunities.
Just say no to Jr.
I am glad I don’t have the authority to make THIS decision. I have absolutely no ability to use logic and good baseball sense when it comes to Jr. He was so much a part of my growing up and I remember his days here so fondly, I would do anything to have him back, even if it wouldn’t be good for the team. Watching him play was fun, I loved being an M’s fan and knowing we had this guy.
I don’t want Griffey back, and I think a lot of people would regret it if he did come. I was a huge Griffey fan when he was here, heartbroken that he left, and then heartbroken even more as I saw his career become injury after injury. The Griffey who’s playing today is not “The Kid.” He won’t have that too-big grin as he crashes into a wall, his swing just isn’t as smooth (read: beautifully natural), and he’s slow as tar. They say “never meet your heroes,” but I would add “never invite your young heroes to come play for you again after they’re old and borderline washed-up.” People want “The Kid” back, they don’t want Griffey, and once he was here they’d realize that.
I’ll throw my name in the “if the price is right camp.” Although it is possible to field a contending team in 2009, there’s no way the Front Office will sell such a promise given what happened this year.
I believe Jack said he would work on fielding a competitive team in 2009. Signing Griffey at a decent price would provide some distraction away from the fact that there’s plenty of work to do (not to mention the time it will take) to make this a team that’s a regular contender.
ThundaPC,
On the contrary, signing Griffey wouldn’t distract from how much work this team needs to do, it would highlight it…
Well, if Brad Nelson, or someone like him, is on the roster, then I’m completely on board with you Dave. But if it ends up either Jr. or Mike Morse…
But then if that’s where the M’s end up, worrying abou the future is probalby moot anyway. Okay, you’ve convinced me, just say No.
For those of you worried that Jr. might steal at bats from the youngsters, I say the youngsters had plenty of chances this past year.
Uhh, seriously?
I don’t… what do…
I give up.
So all hope is gone and we should just roll with 1995 reunion tour roster?
I guess I just figured Griffey would only be likely to take at-bats away from someone else who isn’t going to be part of the next good M’s team either. I certainly wouldn’t support adding him instead of someone like Brad Nelson.
Sure let’s have the M’s bring back Griffey. And while we’re at it let’s have the Seahawks bring back Steve Largent and Dave Krieg to fill in the gaps left by injury at WR and QB.
Nostalgia has it’s place. That’s why I’ll dust off my 24 jersey, wear it to Safeco, and stand and cheer wildly on the night they retire Griffey’s number. I’ll do it again on the night they have a ceremony honoring him for his induction into the HOF. I’ll probably do it if they pick him up on a waiver deal late in a lost season so he can take his last few career at bats as a Mariner.
But every at bat he’d take in a non-ceremonial role is a complete waste of my time as fan who wants to see this team get better. There is no monetary cost low enough to make up for the opportunity cost of having him be part of a rebuilding roster.
I would support adding Griffey when the Mariners are 46-55 on July 29, 2009, nine games back of the wild card, and still getting no production out of the DH slot. They can trade away a minor league reliever and give him a two-month farewell tour.
Signing him to start out a season, and having to live with all the consequences, is the path that will make everyone unhappy in the end. It wouldn’t lead to real improvement and would be an obstacle to rebuilding in the longer term. A quicker goodbye when the dalliance makes less difference would leave better feelings all around.
It’s simple…
Sign him to a $1M deal with incentives. You get lots of pre-season excitement and Mojo!(tm)
Then, leave him in Extended Spring training to heal up the hammies. This has the extra benefit of keeping him “near” his family (well, almost as near as Cincinnati, anyway).
Then bring him in with the rest of the September callups. If the Mariners are winning, he can be a lefty PH-specialist. If not, you get the nostalgic swan song that boosts tickets and brings cute puppies to an otherwise gloomy season.
See, everyone wins.
I will not rest in my campaign to get Henry Cotto back in the Seattle outfield. Relive the glory of ‘92!
KG left Seattle under a cloud, in my opinion. He ruined the Mariners’ options by publically demanding a trade to his “home town,” meaning Cincinnati, rather than Florida, where his home, his wife, and his family were. I’d say let him retire to the golf course where he and Lou could compare “if onlies.”
For those of you worried that Jr. might steal at bats from the youngsters, I say the youngsters had plenty of chances this past year.
You mean like that sizzling hot youngster who got called up to replace Jeff Clement?
PS: Yeah, Dave, that’s pretty much my feeling. Even at the MLB minimum, he’s still a good possibility to be a Sexson/Vidro level pile of “you’re done” suck for 2009. If it was August 31, the Mariners were 15 games out, and he was basically a waiver pickup… OK, fine, Griffey can have the reunion tour for September when rosters go to 40. That’s pretty harmless, but he’s just not any GOOD any more, and right now, the team’s job is to get good players, not waste time on the next Carl Everett/Jose Vidro because we all remember when he could actually play like a HOFer.
I wanted to say something along this lines, but I’ll just quote the man himself.
And, to Steve T, who says that the youngsters got there shot this year, I say this: a quarter of a season in the majors isn’t a fair shot, if you ask me. Clement got just over 200 AB’s, and was passed between the majors and minors quite a bit. Wlad got 243, and his story was about the same. Why not see what they can do with constant time in the big leagues?
It is beyond my comprehension that this could ever be considered.
From a pure baseball standpoint, Dave makes the case perfectly. Enough said.
But what I can’t understand is the nostalgia appeal. OK, I can see that maybe some people were 11 when he left and thus weren’t looking at him with any adult perspective. So for them, I would just state that he was a misguided jerk on a personal level, someone who bitched about the new ballpark because the fences were too far away, the guy who selfishly whined, ‘when am I going to get my pitching?’, and someone who lied that his motive for fleeing was to get ‘closer to my family’–which was till 1,000 miles away from Cincinnati.
He WAS a great player. He was never a great human.
Words cannot express how tired I am of some (or I guess I should say many) people’s mindless adoration of Griffey.
Whatever he was back when the hagiography started, he isn’t that player anymore.
Then again, there are still people hanging on just barely making it to the ALCS over ten years ago as if it were the best thing to happen in baseball EVER.
I love baseball as much as anybody, but the mindless nostalgia needs to stop.
someone who lied that his motive for fleeing was to get ‘closer to my family’–which was till 1,000 miles away from Cincinnati.
Criticize Griffey all you want, but calling him a liar based on this argument doesn’t hold. A big part of this that came up repeatedly is the fact that Cincinnati had spring training in Florida while the Mariners are in Arizona.
Mike,
While the spring training site is technically true, I don’t recall that ever being mentioned as a reason at the time.
That wasn’t me; I said no such thing.
Steve T said “I will not rest in my campaign to get Henry Cotto back in the Seattle outfield. Relive the glory of ‘92!” (and made me laugh my ass off…)
az sr softball said what you claimed Steve T said, but your rebuttal was spot on otherwise.
I see Griffey at this point as Raul light and don’t want Raul back. If Raul were to accept arbitration I see no need for this conversation. Griffey has less to offer the way I see it even adding what would surely be a boost in attendance by people who “just didn’t go on the right day and Griffey struck out 3 times.” It’s a bad idea to bring him back right now, but if it was done and it was the only move Zduriencik made this offseason that was bad I’d just live with it. I’d like to see Griffey in an M’s uniform again but I don’t want to see a season (or more) of him floundering in an M’s uniform.
While the spring training site is technically true, I don’t recall that ever being mentioned as a reason at the time.
Good old Larry Stone reported this – “Griffey’s camp says the seven weeks of spring training is an important consideration” – well before Griffey ever narrowed it down to Cincinnati-or-bust. I remember it as a much-discussed aspect of his preferences.
Then again, there are still people hanging on just barely making it to the ALCS over ten years ago as if it were the best thing to happen in baseball EVER.
Yeah, the 1951 Giants lost to the Yankees in the World Series 4-1, so obviously, the 1951 NL had no compelling stories.
Seriously? You take your joy where you can find it, especially when you’re a fan of a franchise that spent 19 years kicking you in the teeth, then gave you less than a decade of good teams that couldn’t quite get over the hump, and now is back to kicking you in the teeth again, this time with steel-toed boots.
The cure to getting past 1995 and 2001 is to actually win it all. Until then… expect some misty-eyed nostalgia.
it was– in the last weeks before the trade Gillick looked at all the teams that trained in Florida (much to the irritation of Griffey’s agent, who announced “The last two weeks, the Mariners have known their only option was Cincinnati”)
Most of the people that want Griffey back also want Raul back and therefore in my estimation know little enough of building a winning club for me to not care what they think.
I think the team needs to be creative in trying to stock up the farm system. We took an over the hill lefty coming off major arm surgey and turned into Gaby Hernandez. I know the M’s didn’t plan this, but nevertheless they added a young pitching prospect who throws 90+. Maybe they can do something similar with Jr. He might just be productive enough as a DH to be able to move to a contender at the deadline for a prospect. I get the point about taking AB’s away from young guys, but do we really want them playing DH full time.
Okay, that one was good. After all the heartache of last time, it would be surreal to see what happens if the Mariners ended up trading Griffey again.
ernier, that’s a solid strategy. However, it usually works best with players who have been tossed on the scrap heap who actually have the “ability” to still produce. The sad fact with Griffey is his ability is all but gone.
If Griffey were to be brought in to just be traded it’d defeat the purpose of bringing him back to retire here and making a move in hopes that something would happen that there’s no statistical data to reasonably support that thing happening is a bad move. Nobody would neccessarily be DHing full-time. The best way to do it would be to have multiple options at each position so that everyone can be rested and the DH spot is open for the best matchup who’d otherwise have the day off.
Holy run-on sentence, Batman!
Look, the Mariners need another left-handed bat, even if it’s just to platoon against right-handers or to pinch-hit and fill on in the OF as a stopgap.
If the man can still hit, and run even a little, he needs a look. You know he wants to play here. Some of his best memories are here. This is the organization he came up with.
I’m for rolling the dice with injuries. Who can forget the excitement we all felt when this rookie burst onto the scene? The team owes him another shot, and the fans need to hope he can regain some of the magic we all knew was there.
Bring back Chris Snelling.
We need to have any left-handed hitter in the organization get at bats before Griffey. From the perspective of building a winning team, he is unquestionably a step backwards rather than forwards.
If that serves the ‘misty watercolor memories’ for some, then great, but you can’t make this a logical argument.
Come on. Doyle makes Mr. Glass look like Cal Ripken.
Haha, spoofed you. Bringing back Doyle makes about as much sense as bringing back Griffey.
I love baseball as much as anybody, but the mindless nostalgia needs to stop.
Wow! I mean, wow! I don’t think you were referring to this site specifically (in asking people, as moderator at USSM, to stop posting mindless nostalgia), so I’m going to step in a little bit. If you were talking about specifically here at USSM, then, you have every right to proceed (and so ignore what I’m about to say)…
After all – baseball is in the long run a completely meaningless game. A source of entertainment with heroes and villains and stuff like that. Mindless nostalgia is a huge part of what draws a lot of folks into the game in the first place. And what keeps people coming through the lean years.
You may not be a nostalgic type, but there are lots and lots of paying fans who are. No, it’s not the best way to build a team, and even business-wise (capitalizing on people’s nostalgic sentiment) it might not make much sense.
But to suggest that people surrender nostalgia as part of their baseball fandom is to completely take away one of the main purposes of baseball in the first place…
As far as me being a mod, I don’t set policy, so don’t make that mistake.
I said “mindless” nostalgia for a reason though; and really, just because the MAGICAL 1995 SEASON is the best thing that the Mariners fanbase has to be nostalgic about, doesn’t necessarily mean that it merits the level of reverence it receives.
(and yes, I’m aware of the whole “saving baseball in Seattle argument”, etc etc)
Even still, if people want to gush about it, that’s all well and good; but when we’re talking about things like bringing back Griffey, hiring Joey Cora as manager, and other silliness just because of nebulous connections to that MAGICAL 1995 SEASON, nostalgia isn’t in its proper place anymore.
You know what’d make me nostalgic? Being able to eventually look back on watching the Mariners win a World Series.
In my mind, barely scraping into the playoffs in the first place with a record a few games over .500, and then barely scraping into the ALCS where they got trounced by Cleveland, doesn’t qualify as something to be nostalgic about.
Ugh. After thinking about it for a while, I’m not really behind the idea of bringing back Griffey. At least, not at the expense of trying to field the best team possible.
We’ve spent years watching this ballclub bring in guys for either the wrong reasons or as a result of bad analysis. It wouldn’t kill me if Griffey was brought here for cheap but the club really needs to focus on putting out the best product possible.
No, I understood the analogy, I just wanted to make a Mr. Glass reference.
I have a soft spot for Unbreakable.
Paul, I think what Jeff is trying to say is don’t let your decisions be overly influenced by the nostalgia. Griffey was great once, but that is not now. Just because we love the guy doesn’t mean that love should overrule common sense.
I would love to see Griffey retire a Mariner, and I don’t really mind bringing him in for a last hurrah for just that reason. I wept like a little baby when Edgar made his round trip slapping hands with fans at SafeCo Field, and I would love to see all of our old Mariner heroes get that chance. However, like the others here, I don’t want that to mean Griffey comes in and struggles and looks bad. I want to remember Ken Griffey Jr as he was, not what he is.
Even though it might not be the smartest thing in the world to bring Jr back, I just can’t say no to it. Not to Jr.
I’m not necessarily clamoring for Jr to come back, but if Jr wanted to come back I certainly wouldn’t say no.
Bringing Jr back would be great. The veteran grit, the clubhouse presense… even Ichiro loves him. He could bridge the gap and make it a cohesive unit.
Seriously though, he’ll probably be better than whoever else we DH and actually cause people to go to some games.
And he’ll probably just get injured and miss most of the season anyways…
I also like Dave’s suggestion “For the huge portion of the fanbase that loves Griffey, I hope he does retire a Mariner. It just makes more sense for that to happen in 2009 and not 2007. ” link
I kind of witnessed the Seattle/Griffey situation from afar, so my judgement is not clouded by nostalgia (not that it is bad). Getting Griffey does not seem to make sense to me, since last year he hit slightly below league DH average (though he wasn’t a dh full time), hits poorly against lefties, and seems fragile. Rolling the dice with 4-8 million dollars on somebody that at will give you around average hitting at dh for 130 games at best does not seem worth it. I personally would much rather see a Brad Nelson playing there. By the way, would Zduriencik’s hiring increase the chance of a Milwaukee trade?
Just a thought. Like I say, though, I can only begin to see what Griffey meant to this city, so who knows…
Over the last three years, he’s played 132 games/year, averaged 482 at-bats, and hit about .260/.350/.470.
I don’t believe you wrote that and used it as a basis for what he might do in 2009. The three-year average gives way too much weight to what he did in 2006 and the first half of 2007 and under weights what’s he done since.
I’d really like to see Griffey come back for one season, both to finish as a Mariner and to help the team by being a league average DH or slightly better, given our void in LF/DH/1B at present. But sadly, Griffey’s power is gone — 25 HR in 730 AB since last all-star break and 3 in 130 AB with the White Sox. He’s a 260/350/410 hitter despite playing in a hitters park in a weaker league. He’s essentially a replacement level DH not league average and worth a flier at $1M, though he won’t take that.
I hope he retires for his own sake.
Why don’t you believe it? The thing about three-year averages is that they get to you to ~90% of a PECOTA-level forecast. For what I was writing about (whether a general Griffey contract value looked like) it’s good enough.
And then I did talk about age later.. but anyway. We can talk about how the waiting errors, but my point was that if you take a fairly rough stab at his value, he’s not going to end up a low-cost, high-reward signing.
Griffey would be a steal at any price. Everybody knows the Mariners are going to be an under .500 team next season, why not give the fans something to come to the ballpark to see? Why not send off one of the biggest icons in Seattle history with proper respect?
Everyone with a working brain realizes Griffey isn’t half the player he used to be, but not many 39 year olds are.
Saunders can play LF/RF. Halman isn’t ready. Reed has already shown he doesn’t have enough talent. Wlad doesn’t project to be a very valuable player in Safeco. Ichiro can play CF. We don’t have a player who currently projects as a DH. All other future prospects that may be drafted this season or are currently in the minors probably will not project to play in 2009 at all.
There are 2 spots open for Griffey if he wants to return, and if he wants to retire as a Mariner next year I say let him. At least it will give us something interesting to watch next season since everyone is already shouting “rebuilding season” from the mountain tops.
I’d rather watch him than much of the no talent garbage we have on the team currently. That’s for goddamn sure.
So paying Griffey $20m would be a steal. $30m. You could give him Manny money and it would be a steal.
Okay! Let’s go do that.
What the hell do I care? It’s one season, and one that doesn’t project to be very interesting sans Felix, Morrow, Ichiro. Give him 100 million. Maybe Nintendo is nostalgic too, and they want him to make another video game.
How about…ONE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS?
*pinkie to lips*
If the M’s give Griffey $20m and don’t spend a dime on international signings, minor league free agents, or some nice …
you know, never mind. I give up. GIFFEY 2oo9: NO MATTER THE COST!!!oneone
I’ve been reading this blog for a while, and there’s one thing about your analysis I don’t understand:
You consistently compare a player’s stats to the average for that position, and if they are not significantly better, the assumption is that you can pick up someone off “the transaction driftwood pile” who would perform at the average.
But aren’t the players on the “transaction driftwood pile” there, for the most part, because their performance is below average?
I’m sure there are occasional aberrations – the result of decent players who just don’t fit with their team’s direction, etc., and certainly these are the deals smart GMs keep their eyes out for. But it seems far less than a certainty – and, in fact, perhaps even a mathematical impossibility – that players who perform at the league average are always, endlessly available.
Aren’t there times when paying a little extra to get a player who performs at the league average – especially on a team that consistently performs well below the league average – would be a good idea?
Hey, good question.
There are two comparisons being made here, and I see where this is confusing. There’s average, and there’s the freely-available guy, commonly referred to as the “replacement-level” player. Here, I’m using both: talking about his offense compared to the positional average, and then how much more he’d contribute compared to the replacement guy.
A replacement guy, as you note, is below-average. Like Matt Stairs, a .250/.342/.394 hitter, only contributed ~5 more than a freely available signee (Stairs being a pretty good example of the floating DH candidates out there). Butler’s about at the same level.
I was curious where Griffey sat in career leaderboards so I looked up what he could do if the FO decides to give him a 1 year + Option contract. On career statistics it would take him 79 Runs to move in the top 25 (not likely in one season), 53 Hits to move into the top 50 (331 for top 25), 39 2B to be top 25 (not likely in one season), 50 HR to pass Mays for 4th All-Time (not likely in even 2 seasons) 41 RBI to move up one spot past Frank Robinson into 17th (62 to get in top 15), 41 Extra base hits would move him up 4 places into 6th All time…
I usually couldnt care less about nostalgia..
However, my mindset right now, is that barring some trade or major FA pickup.. this team cannot contend in 2009 therefore Im not gonna get bend out of shape if the best Mariner of all-time is brought back for a his final days..
I would have serious issue with it, if he was going to be taking ABs from players who could factor into our future..
However, who would he be taking ABs from at the DH spot?? Morse? Johjima on his off days?
If you put him in the outfield a day or two.. who is he blocking? Who is he takings ABs from? Reed??
While he certainly wouldnt be a contributor or anybody i would normally want to see play OF or even be on my team… next yr is a rebuilding yr, and we need a couple bodies to take ABs..
Im sorry but we do not have high level minor league talent, that he’s blocking.. so unless you want to see Reed or Morse get those ABs, im not really seeing how getting Griffey for a yr really stunts the growth of this team
Ibanez is gone, we need the draft picks. We need a couple left handed bats, we have no DH, we have no veteran leadership. Bring back Griffey.
All this talk about Griffey, yet no one talks about the real hope: a return to the FELIX FERMIN YEARS. Come ON, people!
Excuse me — “year”, not “years”. But still.
I suppose I should weigh in on this…
I don’t think the M’s should waste their money on Griffey. He’s not the real answer to any short-term or long-term problems. But if the management disagrees and wants to sign him I at least hope they look at things from this angle:
The Mariners 1st basemen in 2008 were:
Richie Sexson .218/.315/.381
Miguel Cairo .249/.316/.330
Bryan LaHair .250/.315/.346
Can we all agree none of those three should be back?
Compared to:
Ken Griffey, Jr. .249/.353/.424
Eh.. Not great but better splits overall.
At this point there is no viable option to plug in at that position, unless you plan on moving Jeff Clement. However, he needs more time behind the plate – or if you must, put him at DH.
Griffey is a disaster in the outfield but could really be a natural fit at 1B. He still moves fluidly (but is slow) and his glove and arm strength are both fine. I think he would clearly be better at first base than just about any other converted outfielder.
Now, about salary…
The first thing to do is an analysis of attendance increases and merchandise sales. Take that dollar amount and add $4 million and that’s what you offer him. No more. My best guess is that would be a figure of about $6-$7 million.
Your average $4 million replacement player probably won’t give you the .353 OBP or the .424 SLG, and you won’t be saddled with a long-term deal if he gets hurt.
Also, bringing in Jr would definitely mean Raul is gone and combined with the two first rounders you get by letting Fields walk you put yourself in a nice spot down the line.
You’re not wasting ABs for anyone in ‘09 and by the time the M’s are ready to really contend he’ll have retired. If you buy into clubhouse dynamics it could also be nice because it would take pressure off of Ichiro to be the team spokesman.
If things don’t work out then you haven’t lost much. Ideally your first baseman of the future is a 22 year old slugging away in AA this season.
I don’t know why people have this expectation that Griffey is going to sign here cheaply.
He’s always had an ego and will expect to be paid like the superstar he still thinks he is.
how would you feel about hiring him because he worked his way up to being a managerial candidate?
how respectful would it be to bring in someone to play below-average ball in front of the fanbase that has glowing memories of his youth?
I’m betting that these days it is first is contending team, second is money and third is still proximity to home
If Cora turned out to be the best managerial candidate because of his skills and qualifications, that’d be fine.
But that wouldn’t be why he’d get hired here.
Do people really expect a nearly-39-year-old, who’s played outfield his whole life and is kind of a disaster now, to pick up a 1B glove and learn the position overnight? It’s crazy talk.
Just say “no” to Griffey. Stop living in the past.
He’s always had an ego and will expect to be paid like the superstar he still thinks he is.
That would be the reason this won’t happen. (At least, I hope it won’t. L&A might be that stupid, but I’d be shocked if Zduriencik is.) I’d be happy to have Griffey as the Roberto Petagine Memorial Bench Bat, but I agree that I don’t see his ego accepting that role (or paycheck). At least, not unless he goes unemployed for a while first — and maybe not even then.
Larry Stone has quotes from Brian Goldberg including the hopeful note:
“Goldberg said White Sox GM Ken Williams indicated a willingness to talk to Griffey about coming back at a reduced salary.
“Junior still wants to talk to the White Sox,” he said.”
I say give him a shot next year-other than that storyline what else will get you exicted to watch M’s baseball again. I fear we are entering a long period of suckiness….we’ll need a few of these type signings to help bridge the gap til we have a respectable team.
To me this would be a very smart move for the Mariners bringing Junior back. I think it’s a given that we will struggle again in 2009 but if we at least had Junior back it wouldn’t be as bad.
A crap team with Griffey isn’t any more appealing to me.
There is absolutely no reason to bring him back other than cynical exploitation of the nostalgia minded.
If watching Jr. take 200-300 AB with a gigantic fork sticking out of his back is Seattle’s idea of entertaining baseball then this fanbase really has become desperate.
Ichiro? Felix? Morrow? Beltre?
OK….four twenty fifths of the team will put butts in the seats and play at a level that will be worthy of attention. What about the rest? Between flailing prospects and AAAA filler we’ll surely see I’m not sure that will capture our attention or imagination any more than what played out this year. My preference would be to spice it up a little while wait for the kids to develop.
“Where is MY pitching!?”
Sure the staff loved hearing that vote of confidence from their ‘leader’.
Griffey might spice things up for a couple of weeks until he either gets hurt, or just plain shows that he’s a 39 year old DH that can’t run anymore.
Griffey’s glory days are gone and aren’t coming back.
Oh, c’mon…it’s easily right up there on-par for “entertainment value” with one of Mike Tyson’s numerous “comebacks” in front of a hundred people or so at some riverboat casino somewhere.
Yeah, it’s one game so it’s small sample theater in the extreme, but how did Griffey do in the ALCS elimination game, arguably the most (or, depending on your opinion of certain other games, the second-most) important game of his career?
1st AB: made an out, FC
2nd AB: struck out swinging
3rd AB: struck out swinging
4th AB, bottom of the 9th, two out: struck out swinging.
As someone who moonlights as a beer vendor-this would put a couple more people in the stands than there will be next year-and seein Ken out there with Ichiro at the sametime will just have an amazing feeling to it.
Oh, I don’t know….following the progress of young and exciting pitchers like Felix, Morrow and Rowland-Smith? Watching Bedard get healthy and hopefully returning to form? Watching Ichiro be Ichiro and Beltre being Beltre? Cheering on any potential free agents Zduriencik may bring in?
Even if we only win 70 games, I have a lot to look forward to in ‘09. The possibility of watching a washed-up fossil in the twilight of his career is not one of them, childhood memories be damned.
I agree. Let’s get excited about the new “jrs” not an old one that’s a shell of his former self. Do your memories a favor and don’t taint them with a past-his-prime version.