Russell Branyan
So, there’s some rumors kicking around (Baker confirms – signing is official) The position player that Zduriencik confirmed has been offered a contract by the M’s is Russell Branyan.
Branyan turns 33 in a few weeks, so he’s not a spring chicken, but he’s got serious power – a career ISO of .255. When he hits a fastball, he hits it a really, really long way. Like a lot of sluggers, however, he swings and misses. A lot. More than anyone in baseball not named Jack Cust – his career K% of 39.8% is staggeringly high. When you make contact that rarely, you just can’t hit for much of an average without a lot of luck – not surprisingly, Branyan’s a career .230 hitter.
He’s all about walks and home runs and hoping you can live with the strikeouts and the low batting average. Most teams can’t, so he’s never been given a full time job in the majors, but he’s been productive in limited action.
His MARCEL projection for 2009 is .234/.327/.465 – that’s probably pretty close to what you should expect from Branyan if the M’s made him their regular first baseman against RHP. He can’t hit lefties to save his life, so he’d have to be platooned. You’d probably want to have a defensive replacement for him as well, as he’s not a great glove guy.
Overall, Branyan’s a nice little role player, probably a +1 win guy compared to a replacement level first baseman. His ability to kinda sort play third base in a pinch is a nice bonus, and he’s the kind of hitter that Safeco was built for. On a one year, low money deal, he could be a decently productive stopgap until the organization finds their first baseman of the future.
The nice thing about a Branyan acquisition is that it wouldn’t stop them from getting other, more talented players at a later date. He’d fit in nicely as a reserve infielder/pinch hitter if they found a better, long term option at first base, and he’s used to coming off the bench, so you don’t have to worry about him throwing a fit if he’s not the starter come next summer.
Thumbs up for Zduriencik’s first signing – this is exactly the kind of move the Mariners need to be making.
But he strikes out a lot. What a bum.
Seriously, though, nice signing. It’s indicative of good things to come.
Very nice move by the M’s. Branyan costs nothing, and as Dave points out, will give you some production at 1B for a position that the M’s sorely lacked in 2008 (M’s 1B hit: .242/.315/.365 last year)
I already had a man-crush on Branyan. Now I have one on Zduriencik, too.
Seattle welcomes Russell “The Muscle” Branyan!
What are the chances the M’s try to sign Felipe Lopez?
Jeez. About 3 years too late! We’ve needed Branyan off the bench or DH’ing vs. righties since forever.
We’ll see if and when he falls off the proverbial cliff, but he’ll probably hit the Hit It Here Cafe once or twice before he goes…
And the good streak continues! Go Z go!
His ability to kinda sort play third base in a pinch is a nice bonus
I just hope that’s all they’re looking for, and not thinking of him as an actual third baseman, which is where he spent most of his time in Milwaukee. Granted, the Brewers have Fielder taking all the playing time at first, but if this is a prelude to trading Beltre it’s the wrong move. We’ve already had a very painful experience with a guy named Russ butchering the hot corner while striking out constantly and never quite capitalizing on his power potential.
This is exciting.
Nice signing by the M’s.
It also realistically puts to bed any need for a certain former M’s outfielder who’s only remaining skill set his hitting a bit versus RH pitching. Having two lefty hitters who are below average fielders that can only hit RH pitching seems like a waste of a roster space.
Dave – any ideas for platoon partner(s) for Branyan that the M’s can get on the cheap? If we’re just looking for DH’s, would platooning him with Gape Kapler make sense for the M’s?
LaHair – small sample size alert – was brutal against LH last year and Branyan seems to be a better fit due to his better OPB and SLG.
vs RH (114 AB) – .281/.328/.395
vs LH (22 AB) – .091/.259/.346
For comparison, here are Branyan’s 2008 splits:
vs RH (118 AB) – .280/.377/.653
vs LH (14 AB) – .000/.000/.000
and 2006-2008 splits
vs RH (462) – .234/.336/.519
vs LH (74) – .162/.279/.351
Not a sexy signing, but he’s a helluva better option than Bryan LaHair at 1B. Does this move signify that Zduriencik won’t be tearing down the team and going full-rebuild for ‘09?
Anyone seen the last line of Baker’s most recent blog about the Branyan signing? That’s downright offensive—-Ha!! He better get that off of there quickly…
Good first move…now hopefully that trade with an NL team comes soon and Yuni is shown the door…or Lopez…
He fixed it–thank god!
(M’s 1B hit: .242/.315/.365 last year)
Goodness that’s painful to look at.
Hey, and Rosenthal reports M’s are in the hunt for Dunn as well. Things may be looking up. Merry Xmas PP!
Dunn would be good ONLY on two conditions that probably won’t happen…1) He’s not overpriced (see Richie Sexson) and 2) He’s not allowed in the field (see Raul Ibanez)…
Woohoo!
Like Dave says, this is exactly the sort of deal that the M’s need to be making right now, and this shows that Zduriencik is being realistic about where the organization is at this point and knowing how to fill holes without mortgaging the future.
I’ve been wanting the Twins to sign Branyan for like the last 8 years or something. I guess it’s good that my second favorite team got him.
Sheehan has a post up about the M’s on Baseball Prospectus…my first thought was to wonder what Dave thought of it. I think he’s a little too bullish on their chances in ‘09 (seems to overrate their pitching rotation a little) and that they should really be focused on ‘10, but that overall he had some good ideas (Branyan wasn’t one of them, but Dunn was…).
Love this move. It even brings with it the upside to cash in on type-B compensation next year if Branyan gets 500+ ABs and puts up decent HR and RBI numbers.
Older 1B/DH’s who used to be top prospects continue to be one of the most undervalued commodities on the market (see: Pena, Carlos, Ortiz, David, or Petagine, Roberto). It’s pretty sweet to see that our new GM gets that.
I like this move.
Dunn & Burrell, per Rosenthal, but Branyan would seem to rule out Burrell.
Unless Burrell would be playing LF? Dunn @ DH?
I’m all for adding high OBP, low-contact, power guys. It would really complement the high-contact, low-OBP guys that are already too abundant on the club. Adding Branyan and either Burrell or Dunn would give the lineup a much needed change in variety.
I like this signing. I’m hoping they get Dunn as well. Neither cost us draft picks. Play to your strength Z. Aren’t we destined to get a possible 5 draft picks in the first two rounds if Raul doesn’t come back?
Dunn is Richie Sexson, Jr. His career numbers are eerily similar. Steer clear of him.
LewLegend-
Assuming that Raul signs a contract elsewhere and that the M’s are not “albe” to sign Fields the M’s will have 5 picks in the first 2 rounds (including the sandwich round pick for Raul).
#2 overall for being the 2nd worst team in MLB
~#22 for Fields not signing
2nd pick in the 2nd round
Then they’ll receive a compensetory round pick for Raul and a 1st/2nd round pick from the team that signs him depending on how they finished last year (top 15 team = 1st round pick and bottom 15 team = 2nd round pick, IIRC).
#21 for not signing Fields, per BA.
And my hope is that the Diamondbacks sign him, since that would give us the #16 pick (and a measure of turnabout for Greg Colbrunn).
Indifferent to Branyan himself, but it’s the
of player here that has me excited.
…except that their career numbers aren’t even remotely similar. Dunn has a career OBP of .381 (.386 last year). Sexson has a career OBP of .344.
Exactly. Dunn walked over 120 times last year. Sexson has never had an OBP close to what Dunn does regularly.
I’m not suggesting a Dunn signing is a great idea necessarily, just that the Sexson-Dunn comparison is not really an accurate one.
Yes, and Dunn is a lefty hitter. In Safeco, this matters. Come on Z, sign the “Big Donkey.” I got this from Wikipedia. Yikes.
Adam Dunn is a league average player with a skillset that ages really badly. No thanks.
Sounds like the Z’s strategy might be to fill 1B and DH with huge power, and find a deal to improve outfield defense, and maybe shortstop?
Dave, I guess that’s my feeling too. Would he be a league-average DH as well?
He’d be a league average player at DH. The entire concept of figuring out whether a player is average at a specific position leads to bad decisions.
This makes me really happy.
Personally, I think he’ll be mostly at DH, with Clement getting some time at first.
Really? A ~.380 wOBA is a league average DH? I’m definitely not a Dunn fan mostly due to fear about what happens when he hits the wrong side of 30, but it seems like calling him a league average DH is taking it a little too far, unless you think there’s no chance he maintains his recent production for any period of time.
Over the life of the contract he will receive, Adam Dunn will, on average, perform as a league-average player. And that’s if he isn’t allowed to play the field, and doesn’t fall off the Sexson cliff well before the contract ends.
Dunn just seems like Richie part 2. Can’t we go after an outfielder with some defensive ability?
We’re getting into a larger argument here (that I don’t have time for, unfortunately), but the whole concept of figuring out whether someeone is a “league average DH” or “league average shortstop” isn’t very helpful, because the inference is that all positions are equally valuable, and that’s obviously not true.
Dunn is a better than most of the guys that are currently manning the DH position, but the DH position is inherently less valuable than the rest of the positions. The fact that Dunn is a DH masquerading as an OF makes him less valuable.
A .375 wOBA, from a DH, is worth about +2 wins above replacement level. That’s a league average player.
Strictly from an entertaiment perspective, I sure wouldn’t miss many BP’s before games if Dunn were out there mashing with Branyan. But I can’t imagine a deal where the cost of Dunn would be worth it*.
*But batting practice.
Some if going to pay Dunn big bucks to man the outfield. Just like some silly NL team is going to pay Ibanez slightly less bucks to also man the outfield.
How bad is Dunn in the OF or 1B? That’s the real question, I think, because the M’s are are starting to look a bit overloaded with lefty DHs (Branyan and Clement already). I know Dunn has a bad rep as an OF, but my recollection is that he actually improved last year, at least statistically. And I have no idea how bad he is at 1B.
That should read, ‘Some TEAM IS going to pay…’. Sorry.
Hmmm… I wish you had more time to explain that. I’m not sure I follow.
My immediate reaction would be, isn’t it good to have a good-ish DH, regardless of his value in the event he is forced into the outfield somehow? At DH, Dunn’s gawd-awful defense is eliminated.
I think I understand the concept that his true value as a player is “average.” But I thought finding roles to mask a player’s weaknesses and accentuate his strengths was something we like around here. “Ichiro is best used in center,” “Yuni becomes better at 2B,” “Branyan sucks against lefties, but he is useful in a platoon,” “Relief pitcher A in situation A,” “Move Raul to DH!” etc. etc.
Maybe I’m talking nonsense, but I guess I’m missing something. Explain sometime when you have a bit of time. I’d love to wrap my head around it.
I personally don’t really like the Dunn signing, but dismissing it so quickly seems extreme.
How is this a bad thing in and of itself? Obviously cost of contract and length of contract would add some serious contextual impact, but in a vaccuum, a two win player is valuable.
TIF, Yes. That’s my question as well.
Here’s a link to some work that Justin (JinAZ) posted on his blog that should give you an idea what kind of argument Dave might make to back up his assertion that Dunn is a 2 win player.
You also have to take into account that anybody can DH and because of that, the ‘average’ hitter is subjected to much higher expectations. Tom Tango also did a lot of really good positional research on the subject of DHs and found that a general adjustment to their value must be made so as to not overvalue only offense. To expound, what would be more important?: An average fielding short stop who has a wOBA of .375 or a DH with a wOBA of .375? Offensively, they’re both the same, but the shortstop brings greater value to the team because he prevents runs in addition to adding runs. The DH, unless something weird happens, will never assist the team defensively. Thus, the replacement level of a DH is higher then that of a good hitting, average defending short stop.
John Wetteland can now be seen giving M’s fans the bird in the bullpen. He’s the new bullpen coach.
Also, Rick Adair as pitching coach.
TIF/Pete:
“Obviously cost of contract and length of contract would add some serious contextual impact, but in a vaccuum, a two win player is valuable.”
Yes, it’s quite valuable. I think the point here is that Dunn’s contract terms are not a bit of background that adds nuance or context, it’s everything.
Dunn’s a young-ish free agent who’s undoubtedly angling for a 7 year deal or so, and whoever loses out on Tex may give it to him. The odds are pretty good that someone signs Dunn to a deal worth a ton of money, and at an absolute minimum term of 5 years. If you spent that, and got someone whose overall value is basically league average, you’d probably be irate.
Personally, I like Dunn a BIT more than Dave; I think he’ll average a bit more than a .375 wOBA over the next 3-5 years, and that keeps his value a bit above LA. I’d love to sign the guy for 3 years at a reasonable rate. But I’m convinced that paying what it would take to get him would be pretty damned bad for this team.
sez Baker:
well, duh. [cue Rizzs]
I can second Branyan’s power. I saw him in person in Milwaukee for many games, but as Dave said, his strikeouts are legion and frustrating. I am glad to see that he is not being played at third anymore, as he was never a good fielder. Good move, it is refreshing to see a signing like this in Seattle. (I apologize for the run-on sentence.)
Dunn’s a young-ish free agent who’s undoubtedly angling for a 7 year deal or so, and whoever loses out on Tex may give it to him.
7 years is crazy talk for Dunn. For a player with a somewhat similar skill set, the best recent comparison I can think of is Carlos Lee, and he “only” got 6 years, he has better contact skills than Dunn (and fairly or not, Dunn’s strikeouts will drive his price down), and the economy didn’t look so grim at the time. Heck, Jason Giambi only got 7 years from the Yankees coming off of consecutive years that were much, much better than anything Dunn has accomplished.
I could see Dunn getting something like Torii Hunter’s $90M/5yr deal, but I think 7 years is out of the question.
I don’t like a huge contract for Dunn at all. I was just confused about his value as a DH, regardless of contract.
And I agree, the contract makes is factor, not just a factor.
The DH, unless something weird happens, will never assist the team defensively.
Even on top of that, the DH can hurt the team defensively by forcing a manager to play a good-hitting/bad-fielding player in the field. It never really struck me as fair for the media to deride Manny’s defense while essentially giving David Ortiz a free ride, even though Ortiz’s defensive skills must be worse than Manny’s for no one to suggest that Ortiz switch spots with Manny.
I don’t like a huge contract for Dunn at all. I was just confused about his value as a DH, regardless of contract.
And I agree, the contract is the factor, not just a factor.
I LOVE Branyan. Strikeouts? Bring ‘em on. He’s a genuine Three True Outcomes guy, the reincarnation of Rob Deer. Love it, love it, LOVE it. I’ll take a guy who strikes out a ton but takes a walk over any number of useless swingers who never K but doink the first pitch every single goddamned time. I’m lookin’ at you, Jose Vidro.
I’m curious if Zduriencik is properly valuing defense. I think depending on how we see Branyan used in terms of positions will be a good indication of how he values defense. A lot of his famous signings have been poor defenders (Fielder, Weeks, Braun). Not that you can accurately predict defense at the time of signing, but I think it’s a situation we might want to monitor.
I could be wrong though, I don’t really know about the other guys Z’s signed and Hardy’s a pretty solid defender.
Mat –
“7 years is crazy talk for Dunn.”
Well, I agree, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got it.
You’re right – Carlos Lee got 6 years and Giambi got 7 after much better seasons.
But Dunn is a full year younger than Lee was at the time of that contract, and two years younger than Giambi was when he signed with the Yankees. I’d assume his agent is making the case that he’s much ’safer’ than Burrell/Lee/Giambi because of it.
It wouldn’t be a good deal, but Carlos Lee got 6, despite being older and a significantly worse hitter, so I wouldn’t characterize it as crazy talk.
I’m curious to see just who ends up taking a pay cut this year …
Oh, happy day! Of course, this is all contingent on the M’s using him correctly, but this signing is a smart move. Branyan plugs a hole without breaking the bank.
Plus, who doesn’t love a three true outcomes guy?
I’d argue that anything beyond 3/30 for Dunn is a bad deal.
So Branyan, who strikes out almost 40% of the time is a great signing? The Mariners are going to have to play fundamental baseball to compete next year. This means you will have to hit behind runners and make contact, which you can’t do when you are striking out all the time. The Mariners should have kept LaHair and/or Morse at first and see if he can develop.
Who will be our 1b vs lefties since Branyan didn’t have one hit last year against the lefties. I can’t wait to see Branyon provide that 25 HRs Z is looking for and drive in 40 runs all year.
But Dunn is a full year younger than Lee was at the time of that contract, and two years younger than Giambi was when he signed with the Yankees. I’d assume his agent is making the case that he’s much ’safer’ than Burrell/Lee/Giambi because of it.
It wouldn’t be a good deal, but Carlos Lee got 6, despite being older and a significantly worse hitter, so I wouldn’t characterize it as crazy talk.
It’s true that Dunn has the age factor, but I really doubt that GMs would value Dunn significantly higher than they valued Lee (and I’m sure they value him far less than free agent Giambi), and I also don’t think Lee would be able to get 6 years in this offseason.
I’ll put it this way: if Adam Dunn gets 7 years, I’ll eat a horse.
I’d argue that anything beyond 3/30 for Dunn is a bad deal.
Then it’s pretty easy to see why you would be against signing him. Having made $13.5M last year, it’s tough for me to see anyone signing him to a deal for significantly less than that per year.
If Dunn was the mythical “last piece of the puzzle” for someone with a $120M+ payroll, I could see something like 3/45 or maybe even 4/55 making sense. Barring mitigating factors like that, I would tend to agree that 3/30 is about as far as anyone should go, though undoubtedly someone will give him more.
Oh god. MarcS74, you know not the unholy fury such a comment will inspire. I urge the rest of you to please take pity on this misguided man. He knows not what he says!
When I was reading Joe Sheehan’s proposals for the M’s this morning, and I saw he proposed we spend whatever it takes to get Adam Dunn, I knew exactly what your reaction would be.
I can’t help but agree (with you).
It might be safer for him if we just ban him now.
Good thing this isn’t LL.
“I’ll put it this way: if Adam Dunn gets 7 years, I’ll eat a horse.”
OK. We’ll hold you to that, Mat.
I actually took MarcS74’s comment to be snark, but I may be wrong.
I think Dunn talk is a waste of time. He’s going to get at least five years, and it shouldn’t be from us.
What about this: Lopez and Washburn for Ludwick. Duncan loves reclamation projects, and Washburn is a lot better than some of the stiffs he’s been handed. Lopez gives them power at second.
Would they go for it?
A smart, low-risk move by the M’s?!?!
I think I’m in love…
Wow. You’re concerned that Dunn drops off a cliff that quickly? If that’s the case, I can certainly understand your stance. Your problem with Dunn seems to be contractual, and that I can certainly agree with. Though I wonder what makes you think he drops off at 31 being a more extreme 3TO guy then Branyan.
As Matt pointed out there’s (probably) no way he gets less then 13.5 million. At ~2 WAR/y*, he’s slightly overpaid at 3/30 as it is.
*I presume you already adjusted for DH position.
I sit corrected. Branyan is a more extreme 3TO guy then Dunn is.
By the by, ESPN is reporting the Branyan deal is 1.4 million / year + 500k in incentives. Awesome deal.
I’m actually writing a long post about Dunn now.
DMZ -
Thank you for being awesome and writing that up.
TIF-
That’s the best news the M’s have had for a long time. Compare that to the Spiezio contract.
Or Carl Everett ($4 Million/year).
It’s up. Man, it’s pretty long.
When was the last time a Mariner signing filled a real need (a left-handed masher) without putting anyone out of a job (sorry, Bryan LaHair, you’re not “anyone”) or duplicating a skill already in place (e.g., Cairo versus Bloomquist)?
I’m all for adding high OBP, low-contact, power guys.
I’m all for this signing, but it should be made clear that Branyan is not a high-OBP guy. His career OBP is .328, compared with a park-adjusted league average of .338 over his career.
Marcel, as Dave points out, has him at .327 next year. He walks a fair amount, but the insane strikeout numbers will keep his OBP down around average, if not below. The comparisons to Dunn are a bit of a stretch.
I’m confident just calling him a power guy.
interesting Wak quote about Branyon
“Jack had talked to me a week, 10 days ago and bounced his name around. My response was, ‘I’d love him.’†Wakamatsu said. “I’ve liked Russell for years, but from an opposing coach’s point of view, I saw things I thought I could help. He has the ability to carry a club at times.â€
I can’t say I like this signing. Clement’s Marcel projection is .257/.329/.414 and he seems the most likely to lose at bats with Russell on the roster. This looks like another player without a position and he can’t even really play defense. Sure, he’s cheap, but would seem to limit the possibility of a Brad Nelson or similar pickup.
Meh.
Look, when you’re paying $1.4 million plus incentives for one year, you haven’t limited anybody, and you haven’t made the sort of commitment that’s going to skew your manager’s decisions. When you consider that we have great sucking voids at both 1B and DH, adding someone who is at best half the answer for one of those positions shouldn’t start us complaining that we’re blocking anybody. We still don’t have enough hitters for those slots, even if you give up on Clement behind the plate and just plug him in to one of them (which I for one don’t want to see them do), so what’s to fret about?
Ideally, I’d still like to see them deal for Nelson, and then sign a platoon partner for Branyan, and give Clement every shot to win the starting catcher job, and let the best players win the playing time. After all, we’re going to have an FO and field staff that have no competing loyalties to skew their judgment on that (well, Zduriencik might have on Nelson, but he doesn’t strike me as the type to micro-manage the guys on the field, and none of them have ties to any of these folks).
gotta love the Kitsap Sun
“M’s Sign Big-Swinging First Sacker”
My response was, ‘I’d love him.’†Wakamatsu said. “I’ve liked Russell for years, but from an opposing coach’s point of view, I saw things I thought I could help.
Wak keeps saying interesting, non-clichéd things. I’m sure a year in the spotlight will beat that out of him, but I find it amazing (and refreshing) that he’s reached this point in his career without taking the Crash Davis philosophy to heart.