Baseball America On The M’s
BA released their Top 10 prospects for the Mariners organization today. If you like minor league information, you should be a BA subscriber – they do the best work of anyone out there. That doesn’t mean I have to agree with them, though, and in this case, I think the list is… it could be better.
They have Halman #1. This is just really hard to justify, honestly, and I say this as a guy who has consistently been one of Halman’s biggest boosters. There’s no doubt that he’s got some serious power, and his raw physical skills are terrific. He’s also improved by leaps and bounds in the past year, and holding his own in Double-A at age 20 is impressive.
But the characterization of his pitch recognition as “below average” is in the running for the greatest understatement of all time. The list of good major league hitters who have succeeded with the approach Halman employs at the plate is Alfonso Soriano. There’s no doubt the two have similarities, but Soriano is the success story out of guys with this skillset. Without a pretty significant step forward in his approach at the plate, Juan Encarnacion is a much more likely development path, and it’s not like we can ignore the Reggie Abercrombie-type busts either.
Halman has star potential, but the risk is enormous, and the odds he fulfills it are very long. Making Halman the #1 prospect seems to be focusing too much on upside.
Triunfel is #4. I’m the world’s biggest Triunfel fan, so obviously I think that’s about three spots too low. In an interesting flip, there’s not much emphasis placed on his upside, and a lot more talk about his flaws. I’d argue that while he and Halman have similar ceilings, Triunfel is a lot more likely to be a quality major league player.
At #6 and #7, they go young with Mario Martinez and Jhardmidy DeJesus. Both good talents, both a very long way from the majors. I don’t see a scenario where you can justify putting either ahead of Tui right now, and I’ve never been a big Tui fan. But he’s 90% of the upside and a step away from the majors. There’s a lot less projection to do with Tui, and the difference in potential isn’t big enough to put the two kids ahead of him, I don’t think.
Raben at #9, Valbuena not in the top ten. I don’t know how you make that case, honestly. Similar upside in total value (obviously, they’re very different players), but Valbuena’s pretty close to major league ready, and Raben is at least a year away.
Overall, the information is interesting, and I certainly suggest that you subscribe to Baseball America if you have any interest in prospects or minor league news in general. But, we’ll just agree to disagree on this list.
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First reaction: leaving Tui and Valbuena off was ridiculous. Second reaction: hey, at least the top of the system’s good enough that we’re worrying about the failure to rank 2 guys who are really close to being league average major leaguers in favor of similarly talented but younger players.
The top of the system looks pretty solid right now. The back 15, on the other hand, may be the most painful its been since I started paying attention to the minors.
It depends on what you think the “back 15″ should consist of.
If it’s low level, high ceiling talent that is a long way from the majors, then the M’s have quite a bit of that. If it’s high level, low ceiling talent that could contribute but lacks star potential, yea, the organization is totally barren. Especially on the pitching side.
Ok, ok, I know my role: I would’ve left Tui off as well. Valbuena, no, that’s pretty bizarre.
But I simply don’t see how Tui’s in the same category in terms of upside as DeJesus or Martinez. DeJesus especially.
Yes, Tui’s close to the majors, but that’s got at least as much to do with an overly aggressive promotion policy as anything. He’s not close to MLB average defensively, and he’s not yet close to MLB average at the plate. He’s made great strides, and I’ve had to reconsider my old projection of him as roster-filler. But seriously – Tug Hulett is close to the majors and much, much closer to being league average. Sure, he’s much older, and that’s important to keep in mind with Tui: he’s been around forever, but is still quite young.
I’m glad they’re still quite high on Aumont. And like Jon says, the top of the system (which really is young) is great. Not only that, but Zduriencik is doing a lot of work to improve the ‘back 15′ – the pick-up of Callix Crabbe is a case in point.
It’s a bit of a different list this time, probably because we got Eddy instead of Callis, who usually does it for us. I think Eddy is usually their international guy, so it makes sense that he’d rank some of the prospects higher while Callis tends to look more at the major league ready types.
I feel positive about the direction of the system, moreso after the June draft, but I’m not exactly clear how he was projecting some of the Latin American infielders to turn out because I’m not sure how much power de Jesus and Martinez are expected to hit for.
Leaving Tuiasosopo off is pretty understandable for anyone who doesn’t believe his power will ever really develop. I have a harder time with the Valbuena omission.
Valbuena’s an interesting case, though, considering how many people want to overlook Jose Lopez’s abysmal 2007 and focus on his good 2008 performance. I lean that way myself sometimes, but we should be careful about the fact that Valbuena presents the same problem.
I also agree that Valbuena should be in the top 10. Nevertheless, it’s encouraging to see he is listed as having this best tool.
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Luis Valbuena
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Very interesting. I don’t really know much about the minors and these players, but enjoyed reading your opinion on the prospects. You are an amazing writer.
Dave –
Do you think the Mariners are going to decide they don’t want Fields and take the 22nd pick in this year’s draft instead? Would they get in trouble for out and out saying that and not attempting to negotiate?
But I simply don’t see how Tui’s in the same category in terms of upside as DeJesus or Martinez. DeJesus especially.
I’d call DeJesus’ upside +3 WAR at this point. Clearly, there’s a lot about him we don’t know, but based on his early career skillset, his best case scenario looks to be something like .280/.350/.500 at third base. With average defense, that’s +3 WAR or so.
Tui is probably more along the lines of .280/.360/.440, and with -5 defense (which might be generous, but we’re talking best case scenarios here), that’s a +2 win player or so.
So, the upside difference isn’t enormous, and Tui is far, far more likely to actually make the majors and contribute. DeJesus has several years worth of growth to become what Tui is right now. I’d say that the present value difference is larger than the future value difference.
Tug Hulett is close to the majors and much, much closer to being league average
Hulett has zero room for growth. He is what he is – a +.5 to +1 WAR utility player.
but we should be careful about the fact that Valbuena presents the same problem.
The positive with Valbuena is that he doesn’t have to hit to be useful. Lopez does.
“The positive with Valbuena is that he doesn’t have to hit to be useful. Lopez does.”
What was Lopez WAR for 08? He played decent D and hit a bit. What do you think the odds are that he can sustain it going foward?
2: the problem with that is that the mid-levels are so bare that guys who really belong in most system’s back-end are mid-tier prospects. Not getting into numerical rankings, the next tier of players not mentioned in this thread (i.e., the 10 ranked by BA + Tui and Valbuena) seems like it has to consist of guys like Noriega, Almonte, and Liddi, who are among the rawest talents in the minors.
The positive with Valbuena is that he doesn’t have to hit to be useful. Lopez does.
No argument from me there, and it may well be that this ranking didn’t properly value Valbuena’s defensive abilities. My point was just that it’s a lot less obvious that he belongs on this list based on his full track record as a hitter. For someone that thinks 2008 was the real deal, then no question, but with 2007 factored in then you really have to rate his defense highly.
I’ve never seen Adam Moore discussed as a legitimate prospect with a chance of being a Major League regular. Is his bat real? Is he too old, as a 24 year old in AA to qualify? Anyone who’s followed him or seen him play, please inform.
“I’d call DeJesus’ upside +3 WAR at this point. Clearly, there’s a lot about him we don’t know, but based on his early career skillset, his best case scenario looks to be something like .280/.350/.500 at third base.”
Hmmm. It’s really difficult to get a feel for the ceiling on a teenager in SS ball, and it’s difficult comparing a SS player to a AAA player. All that said, IF he works out, he’s a solid every day, regular 3b who COULD be an all-star. I just don’t see a scenario where that’s true for Tui, barring a big improvement.
Different people weight ceiling and likelihood to contribute differently; I’m just not surprised that BA prefers the former. Isn’t that, you know, what they do? Again, I’m not complaining – and I guess this list is a bit closer to mine than yours, but is it really a shock that BA’s list doesn’t have a list of future bench bats like Hulett/Tui?
On Hulett, you’ve got a SS with decent OBP skills. I totally agree that there’s zero room for growth there, but if we’re talking about guys who are capable of contributing now/close to now, uh, he’d be on the list. Tui’s definitely got more potential, but the position adjustment, defense and plate discipline might tip it in Hulett’s favor.
I think part of the problem is that you’re undervaluing Tui a little bit, Marc. He hit .302/.369/.522 after June this year, with 13hrs. He pretty clearly figured something major out. I’m pretty excited to see how that carries into next year.
You’re probably right, Jon – I’ve been very pessimistic on the guy for a while.
And he looked different from June on, too. Still, I’m very, very wary about attributing much to a half-season power spike. I remember LaHair’s 2006 surge.
More than that power spike is the fact that he’s 22, adjusting to a new position and has a nice trend line on his plate discipline. Still, he’s been around for a while now, hasn’t hit for a ton of power and still strikes out from 20-25% of his PAs. There’s room for growth here, and he’s actually been growing, so you’re right to point that out. But I feel obliged to mention that even though he’s in AAA, he’s got a long way to go to become a league average player.
Tui “pretty clearly figured something major out”? No. He may have figured something major out, or he may just have had a typical meaningless hot streak. We can hope it’s the former, but unless you have significant evidence as to the underlying cause of his strong second half, it’s far from “pretty clear.”
Yes, the sample size is too small to make a clear determination that this is his new value, but 268 ABs is usually considered too long to call a hot streak. Those ABs make up over half of Tuiasosopo’s season.
When a 22-year-old sustains a level of performance over a half-season that’s this far out of line with his career line, more often than not he’s made some legitimate improvements. He hit 4 more HRs in those 3 months than he’d hit in any previous minor league season.
I’m not saying it’s a guarantee, but I feel a lot better about Tuiasosopo’s quality half-season in Tacoma than I felt about LaHair’s hot August 2 years ago.
Lahair, August, 2006: 20 for 56, 0 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR
Tui, Just-August 2008: 81 for 268, 20 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR
There’s no comparison between the two performances. LaHair had three or four flyballs fly over the wall that usually landed a few few short, while Tui hit the living crap out of the baseball for three months.
How often do you see a prospect suddenly “hit the living crap out of the baseball for three months” and have it turn out to be a real breakthrough in his progression, rather than some crazy unsustainable fluke? I’m just trying to understand how encouraged I should be about that. I mean, these guys are young and they are still learning, so it really is possible for them to have something “click” that kicks them up a level. But we also know weird deviations from the mean can go on for quite a while before regressing.
Also, as an aside: I love the level of discussion in this thread, particularly considering we’re talking about a lot of players that even most ardent M’s fans have never heard of. No surprise that Dave’s doing his usual thing, but the rest of you are really upping your game to meet him.
Honestly, I would have placed Valbuena at number 7. I don’t see how you can leave him out of the top 10.
Upon being promoted from high-A to AA ball in 2003, 22-year old Jeremy Reed hit 409/.474/.591 in one-half season. The next year he was back to .305/.366/.455 in AAA ball, and stumbled further after reaching MLB.
It doesn’t seem as if Reed suddenly figured something out, despite half a season of performance at a higher level.
I’m not comparing Tui to LaHair; I was pretty darn sure LaHair’s August didn’t mean anything. That said, I’m leery of putting too much weight on what Tui did the last half of last season. Yes, he beat the baseball bloody, and I certainly hope that represents a meaningful change; given that he’s still fairly young, I think there’s reason to be hopeful. If there’s reason to take the next step and say that he’s “pretty clearly” made real and permanent improvement, I’d love to hear it. But I’ve seen enough fluke seasons (Steve Nelson is right to invoke Reed’s jump to AA as an example — good catch) to be wary of simply declaring it to be so.
Dave –
No, Tui didn’t hit the crap out of the baseball for three months. His July was actually kinda crappy, but he was saved by a high BABIP. He had a .131 ISO-P for that month.
His August/June were great, but we still don’t really know what to make of it. And fine, you can limit LaHair to 56 August ‘06 ABs, but take his 200+ ABs in Tacoma in ‘06 and it’s still pretty comparable. These things happen, as they did for LaHair again this April, or for Prentice Redman this August.
One thing that I find curious is just how many Rainiers slugged better at home in cavernous Cheney than on the road in the freakin’ PCL. Prentice Redman slugged .622 (!) at HOME this year. LaHair, Tui, Wlad (.720 slg at home!), they all hit for more power at home. Clement didn’t, but it was fairly close (and he had a higher home wOBA, anyway). Tug was dead on, but again, hit better overall at home.
Steve: Right, which is why I said “too small to make a clear determination” and “more often than not.” A single flameout isn’t remotely informative.
“But I’ve seen enough fluke seasons to be wary of simply declaring it to be so.”
Yup.
I’m not trying to compare Tui/LaHair either, just for the record. And I understand the caveats, Jon, but… I guess I’m still a bit wary.
Wary is fine. What’s encouraging to me is the way in which he broke out. It’s not like this is a guy who was hitting .250/.280/.350 who came out of nowhere. In 2005, 2006 (pre his ill-advised promotion to AA) and 2007, he was putting up decent numbers with extremely disappointing power. This year, the power arrived. This is a pretty common way for guys with his scouting profile to reach a new level of performance.
Basically, I’ll see your wary, and raise you a cautiously optimistic.
Upon being promoted from high-A to AA ball in 2003, 22-year old Jeremy Reed hit 409/.474/.591 in one-half season. The next year he was back to .305/.366/.455 in AAA ball, and stumbled further after reaching MLB.
And at the time, I was telling everyone that would listen that it was just a hot streak based on an awful lot of luck. It was easily identified as such because it was built on a ridiculous BABIP – only 27 of his 99 hits during that stretch were extra base knocks. Reed didn’t show any new skills during that stretch, but instead, just had the ball find the hole an awful lot.
Tui’s stretch is a lot different. As Jon noted, he’s had one significant flaw in his offensive game for his entire minor league career, and that’s a glaring lack of power. Then, he racked up 33 extra base hits in three months. His hot streak was built off the production of a new skill.
No one here is claiming that Tui’s true talent level is his second performance. We’re just saying that it’s not very rare for guys to develop power at 22, and if Tui’s power did develop, then he’s a significantly better prospect than he was a year ago.
And a year ago, BA ranked him as the #10 prospect in the organization. It’s really hard to imagine that they could view his 2008 as a disappointment, and with half the 2007 list graduating to the majors or getting traded away, it’s an almost impossible task to argue that the farm system is better right now than it was a year ago.
Dave –
I think it’s possible to view his improved power as being at least partly the result of context. There are about 1.1 HRs per PCL game compared to about 0.75/game in the SL when Tui was there. Hence, the average PCL player slugged .444, whereas it was .392 in the SL in ‘07.
In BOTH years, Tui’s been just a touch above average in SLG and in ISO-P.
It’s possible that he got more power, but it’s ALSO possible that he simply went from one league to another and the exact same batting line produced a superficially higher SLG. Park effects? Maybe, but that seems odd given that we’re really talking about Cheney, but there you go.
Indeed, the one thing that REALLY changed *compared to league average* was his plate discipline. That went the wrong way (whether measured in ISO-D or in K:BB).
“And a year ago, BA ranked him as the #10 prospect in the organization. It’s really hard to imagine that they could view his 2008 as a disappointment, and with half the 2007 list graduating to the majors or getting traded away, it’s an almost impossible task to argue that the farm system is better right now than it was a year ago.”
Well, remember, somebody else did the list last year, and Mr. Eddy probably wouldn’t have had Tui near the top 10 if he’d done it last year (and Callis would’ve had him in it this year, guaranteed). This just gets back to the fact that different people prioritize “ceiling” differently.
Eddy did the 2007 list.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2008/265564.html
I don’t want to belabor this – though it has been an interesting discussion – but if this is true: “His hot streak was built off the production of a new skill,” then aren’t we duty-bound to declare Rob Johnson a bona-fide offensive prospect?
Johnson had 2 amazing months and a meh one, just like Tui- Rob had a 282 plate appearance streak in which he hit for something like .340/.410/.590. From the C spot! He struck out much less than Tui during the streak as well. What do we make of this, esp. given the defensive reputations of both players?
Their wOBA are within .001 of each other; the position adjustment tilts overwhelmingly in favor of Johnson.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Tui’s wOBA* (adjusted for league) went down from 2007 to 2008.
“Eddy did the 2007 list.”
Wizzle wozzle? Uh, that’s an odd one all right. Did someone ask him about Tui in the chat?
Age, Marc, age. It seems to be the thing that you leave out of every discussion – Hulett’s 26, Johnson’s 25, and Tui is 22.
Oh Dave… I thought I was the guy who pointed out Clement’s age in every discussion only to be shouted at: “IT’S DIFFERENT FOR CATCHERS!”
Age is a minor, minor part of what I’ve argued here.
I recall that you had been telling the folks at BP that they were overlooking Reed prior to that stint, and then afterward when they ranked him as the #1 prospect in baseball you said they had gotten carried away.
You got me to Google around a bit. Here’s what you said the day after the trade:
On Rob Johnson’s streak:
1) older
2) BABIP during Johnson’s good months: .368, .397, and .373
3) power wasn’t particularly impressive. 31% of his hits in this stretch went for extra bases. An improvement, certainly, but nothing special. 41% of Tui’s hits went for extra bases during his June-August stretch. Much better.
4) Yes, Rob Johnson’s prospect status is better than it was a year ago this time. During the course of his minor league career, he’s gone from potential backup, to non-prospect (with the caveat that he’d been rushed), back to potential backup. Good for him.
5) Whether Johnson’s improvement is real or not has nothing to do with Tui.
Jon:
1) Catcher (or, to be more specific, I’m not SERIOUSLY COMPARING THE TWO)
2) Tui’s BABIP for those months: .309, .382, .403. In addition, Johnson had 2 months of a 29% LD rate, while Tui’s highest rate during the ’streak’ was 24%. Tui was clearly ‘luckier.’
3) Their wOBAs overall ended right about the same place, and in any event roughly equiv. power from the catcher spot is noteworthy.
4) Woohoo!
5) You’re quite right.
I agree, and I’m not seriously arguing that Johnson’s a hitting prospect. My point is that people have really good 200+ PA streaks, and Tui’s wasn’t even the most impressive of 2008. Johnson’s was, to me at least, the cleaner break from prior performance. I’ll say it once again: Tui was a tiny bit above league ave. power production in 2007, and he was a tiny bit above league ave. power production in 2008.
Steve, I’m really not sure where you’re going with this. Jeremy Reed looked great for a few years to start his minor league career, had crazy numbers for half a season, then his value plummeted. Dave thought he was a good player, didn’t read too much into his .400 BA, and anticipate his utter collapse. What’s your point?
I thought I was the guy who pointed out Clement’s age in every discussion only to be shouted at: “IT’S DIFFERENT FOR CATCHERS!â€
The thing with Johnson isn’t so much his age. It’s that this was his third year in a row at the same level.
Marc:
It was actually .373 for August, but that’s besides the point. When 40% of your hits are going for extra bases, you don’t worry too much about BABIP. If you normalize the overall BABIP to around .340 (his LD% was very high), you still come out with pretty sweet-looking results (June looks awesome, July looks pretty bad but the power’s still there, and August looks awesome).
The last sentence in my comment to Steve should read “didn’t anticipate his utter collapse.”
Mike –
But he demonstrated a new skill!!!
Seriously, my point about Johnson was ONLY that it really isn’t that rare to see a guy go off for 2-3 months. We’ve all seen it. Johnson’s was even more bizarre, given his historical level of production. And awesome, given that it basically started when his wife gave birth to their first child. Awwwwwwww.
JH -
Again Jon, Johnson’s LD rate “should” produce a BABIP over .400. It wasn’t inflated at all. Two MONTHS of a LD rate near 30%! No need to make any adjustments; you can bask in the glory of that stat line to your heart’s content.
And again, Johnson improved his standing, both in the organization, and with random bloggers who look at the LD% of triple-A catchers.
Touche, Mr. Helfgott.
You’ve gotta admit though: Tui’s standing increased with random bloggers who look at the LD% of AAA 3bs. You really wouldn’t see much if you just looked at wOBA*. People *love* streaks.
At the risk of making an out of season, quasi-political analogy:
If you just looked at Barack Obama and John McCain’s stance on foreign relations with Israel, they would look like the exact same person. Fortunately, there’s a broader context available, and we should avail ourselves of it.
Linear weights formulas are a great way to sum up a player’s overall value to his team over the course of an entire season. They play very little role in informing the projection of minor leaguers. For that, you need a lot of context.
On the Appy league top 20 list, BA ranked Noriega ahead of Martinez.
“They play very little role in informing the projection of minor leaguers. For that, you need a lot of context”
I totally agree with every word here (I’m uh, I’m going to leave the political analogy alone, however). I would never argue – seriously – that Rob Johnson is a better or an equivalent hitting prospect to Tui. It’s sort of telling how close the two get, overall, when you add in context.
I should point out that we are arguing over the small patch of territory that lies between “wary” and “cautiously optimistic.”
Still, you and Dave think Tui’s 2008 represented a ‘break out season’ and thus are more optimistic than I. I think it was “about the same, only in the PCL.” Thus, we disagree about *what happened in 2008* and, to me, that sounds like a great time to look at linear weights.
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So, what are the odds of Michael Saunders becoming Randy Winn? It seems like they’ve got a lot in common.
Small sample size, but from my point of view – based on seeing him just a few times – you probably couldn’t get two more dissimilar outfielders.
Winn’s an above average defender, with solid contact skills and not much power (19 MiLB HRs in about 1900 games) who maximized marginal tools. Saunders has great physical tools, but as a youngster, he’s not great defensive outfielder and is more of a power+strikeouts guy. If everything works out for Saunders, he’s more like Josh Hamilton than Winn.
We’re just saying that it’s not very rare for guys to develop power at 22, and if Tui’s power did develop, then he’s a significantly better prospect than he was a year ago.
Agreed; that’s why I’m hopeful. I’m just wondering how much that’s an “if,” and how much reason we have to be certain that he’s taken a permanent step forward.
And a year ago, BA ranked him as the #10 prospect in the organization. It’s really hard to imagine that they could view his 2008 as a disappointment, and with half the 2007 list graduating to the majors or getting traded away, it’s an almost impossible task to argue that the farm system is better right now than it was a year ago.
Agreed, certainly.