Random free agents: Nomar
NOMAHHHHH!! That’s the first and only time I’ll do that.
What you get:
– some number of healthy games
– a decent glove at a couple positions (maybe)
– right handed bat
– could come reasonably cheap (he’s not going to get $9m again at 35 after that last season)
What’s the catch:
– he was on the DL more times than I can easily count last year
– he may just retire
– probably will retire
– I’d retire if I were Nomar anyway
– I mean, he’s made his money, been awesome, why not go hang out with Mia instead of spend another year in the trainer’s room trying to figure out what that last snapping noise was?
– whether or not Nomar’s defense is even average, even at first, is debatable
– might not be a whole lot left in the bat
Think of Nomar as Mike Morse if Mike Morse was ridiculously injury prone, and could hit and fielded a little better. And didn’t have a steroid scandal in his past.
Think about how Nomar might fit on the M’s. Branyan could use a right-handed bat to caddy at first, and Nomar can do that. Nomar can spot start and play better-than-Morse defense at third and short.
If he can hit. And this is where I think we start to get to what’s interesting about Nomar as a free agent this off-season: the high end for a 2008 Nomar performance where you play him as a super-sub against righties and rotate him through DH and first base against lefties (or something equally weird) is that you get him into 80, maybe 90 games, keep him well-rested and somewhat more healthy, and squeeze 300, 350 at-bats of .290/.345/.450 hitting. And the worst case is he’s injured, bad when injured, and takes the Pokey Reese Memorial Award for Well-Compensated Absenteeism (The Greg Hibbard Award is given to deserving pitchers).
What’s that gamble worth? The M’s may have the flexibility to take that chance at the right place, but I don’t think it’ll happen: he’ll retire or someone else will give him too much money on a one or two-yea deal. But it’s interesting to think about how well even a Nomar packed in protective padding for two or three days a week could fit into this year’s roster.
Derek,
Do you have any sense of whether Nomar has gotten to the point where he realizes he is a part time player?
I think one of the excellent points you guys have made is that teams like Seattle have an advantage in signing mid-tier FAs b/c they can expect to start in Sea., while they might ride the becnh elsewhere.
But, in this case you’re proposing Nomar as basically a heavily used bench player. If he’s content with that role, wouldn’t he rather fill it on a contender?
Thanks for all your work.
OK, channeling Bill Bavasi is not funny. At least not yet.
If ever ‘win this year’ was less appropriate, I can’t imagine when, and that’s what this proposal says. No thanks.
Marcel Projections
Morse 288/357/446 for a wOBA of 350
Nomar 271/329/418 for a wOBA of 323
Marcel really really likes Morse. Do any of the other projections agree?
Personally, I would prefer the M’s stick with Morse. Cheaper, younger, etc.
But speaking of oft-injured Dodgers, it looks like Furcal isn’t garnering a ton of interest. How much is too much for him?
as Mike Morse if Mike Morse was ridiculously injury prone
So – just think of Mike Morse?
I love Morse. Everytime he plays he hits well. Also he works hard, has a great attitude, and pretty versatile.
Furcal obviously thinks he’s worth more than the $35 to $40 million the A’s offered him.
I can’t break it down as well as Dave or Derek, but I’m pretty sure I’d take .288/.357/.446 for the mere pittance that Morse is being paid.
I love Morse. Everytime he plays he hits well.
His career minor league line of .261/.312/.408 is more indicative of his skills than a handful of at-bats in the majors, where he has enjoyed a BABIP of .375 in a parade of singles. He has little power, little patience, and little defensive ability.
and pretty versatile.
First base is the only position where he won’t embarrass himself. He’s awful in the outfield, and by most accounts he can no longer play up the middle in the infield. He’s a corner infielder, and his bat won’t play in a corner. He’s probably a pinch-hitter off the bench at best.
I can’t break it down as well as Dave or Derek, but I’m pretty sure I’d take .288/.357/.446 for the mere pittance that Morse is being paid.
Marcel uses three years of MLB data to make projections. Mike Morse has a grand total of 79 plate appearances over the last three years. Using Marcel to project Mike Morse will get you nowhere.
Oh, I wasn’t saying we’d get that sort of line from Morse, just that I’d take it for his ~$400,000 salary.
Oh, absolutely. I just saw Marcel’s projection a couple times in this thread so I wanted to point that out.
And it’s that time of the year again where everyone starts talking about Mike Morse, so I’m a little testy. 😉
Regarding Furcal… is anything higher than 10 mil/yr overpaying for him? Is he projected to be a 2+ win player over the next 3-4 years?
Also, what’s going on with Orlando Hudson?
and does Furcal’s microdiscectomy last season to take out part of a ruptured disc need to be weighed into the equation?
Actually, irrational Mike Morse love can tend to pop up at any time.
You have to be careful!
Good point, Jeff. It’s mostly a November-to-April thing, but it can still creep up in the middle of the season.
I root for the guy, I do. It’s hard to dislike a dude who, despite his mediocre career numbers, somehow manages to do well whenever he’s in the bigs (even if it is all singles). The Raul comps — while probably a pipe dream — still linger. Maybe he will just figure it out at a later age than most.
But we have to be smarter than to judge a guy off a couple hundred at-bats. If he didn’t hit well in the minors, why would he hit in the majors? I almost want him to get a full-time job this season, just so we can witness the regression. And maybe then people will stop thinking that he’s more than what he is.
I love this. You know winter is coming when the days get shorter, Hollywood starts releasing less crappy movies, rosterbation cranks into full swing, and the Mike Morse fans come out of the woodwork.
Teej,
I think how you play in the majors is more important than how you play in the minors. Also power develops with age, and experience and apparently he hits moon shots in BP but that doesn’t really mean much.
pmbaseball7, you appear to not be a troll, so I’m going to try to be as respectful and courteous as I can . . .
I think how you play in the majors is more important than how you play in the minors.
Well yes, it’s more important. But that doesn’t mean that it’s more predictive. And all we should care about is what’s to come. In Mike Morse’s entire MLB career, he has just 337 plate appearances. That’s basically a little over half a season.
In the minors, he has 2,455 plate appearances. By my rough math, 88 percent of his plate appearances in professional baseball have come in the minors. And he wasn’t all that good. We cannot ignore that.
Now obviously the at-bats you get in the higher levels of the minors and in MLB are more important when we’re trying to predict future value, but still, when we talk about Mike Morse, we’re talking about a guy who is going to be 26 and really hasn’t shown that he can hit. What he did in the majors — and what he did in 2008 spring training — is a huge string of singles that appears to be unsustainable.
You’re right that what you do in the majors is important — and Morse has held his own in his few opportunities, and I applaud him for it — but what he did is simply not bankable.
Also power develops with age, and experience and apparently he hits moon shots in BP but that doesn’t really mean much.
He could develop power. I hope he does, to be honest. I really do like the guy, and I root for anyone wearing a Mariners uniform. But compared to actual prospects, he’s old. He’s approaching his prime, and he still doesn’t have any power.
I’m ready to be surprised. But that’s exactly what it would be if Mike Morse turned into a good baseball player — a huge surprise.
Are we allowed to talk about Morse’s grit, attitude, work ethic, how he could really contribute if just given more time; before Ballgame is gone? It almost feels like cheating!
(It’s like déjà vu all over again!)
Thanks Teej if I sounded rude at any time I’m sorry I was not intending to. I guess I’m just a Morse fan and got a little defensive, sorry.
You weren’t rude. And that’s why I tried not to be.
You weren’t either.
If Morse had Bloomquist’s glove, he’d be quite a useful player. As it is, not so much.
But it’s interesting to think about how well even a Nomar packed in protective padding for two or three days a week could fit into this year’s roster.
It is?
a 2008 Nomar performance where you play him as a super-sub against righties and rotate him through DH and first base against lefties (or something equally weird)
Ok, that’s interesting. But do we have any reason to believe Wakamatsu might be that creative with his lineup? Or that the org as a whole is so together that they could go out and acquire an odd-shaped puzzle piece like this with the certainty it would get employed to maximize its value?
With 350 PAs distributed to keep him rested and healthy, and rounding up to give him the benefit of the doubt, suppose Nomar records something like 30BB, 69 singles, 15 doubles, no triples, and 9 HR. That gives him about the .290/.350/.450 line you’re talking about (little higher OBP — old player skills). That gives him a wOBA of .342, which is about league average. Given his role (1B/PH/DH) that makes him a +1 WAR player at most, right? Probably less, given his part-time role and his defensive liabilities.
So we really shouldn’t expect a team to pay him more than $5M (probably in the form of a contract with a lot of PA-based bonuses). But would he accept such a contract, especially knowing the limited PAs he’s going to get in return for all the travel and the home games away from SoCal? I think your “stay home with Mia” option sounds a lot more likely, unless there’s some GM out there who offers more because he believes in some kind of crazy “finally healthy and ready to follow an Edgar career trajectory” fairytale.