Joyce, Larish analyzed
So, as Jason (!) noted below, and Baker blogged about the last couple of days, the Mariners and Tigers are almost certainly talking about a deal that would send J.J. Putz to Detroit. Speculation has the Mariners wanting some combination of prospects that would include Matt Joyce or Jeff Larish, as both are left-handed hitters with some power, and Zduriencik has made it no secret that his goal is to add some LH power to the roster.
Now, because both are guys that most non-Detroit fans will know little about, it’s easy to lump them together as similar prospects. They aren’t. Joyce is the far superior talent, and it’s not even close.
Larish is a 26-year-old with the classic first baseman skillset – significant raw pull power, a patient approach at the plate, and contact problems. He swings for the fences and his value lies in hitting the ball really far, hoping that it makes up for his lack of contact. His career minor league K% is around 25%, so he’s not Russ Branyan, but he’s going to strike out a lot. That lack of contact will keep his average in the .250 to .270 range, and even though he draws his fair share of walks and has power, that limits his absolute upside to something like a .260/.350/.500 player, and he’s only got about a 10% chance of being that good. Unless he developed into a plus defender (unlikely), that makes him an average player at best, and more likely he ends up having something like Eric Hinske’s career.
Joyce, on the other hand, has less power but a better spread of skills. Like Larish, he swings and misses a lot, and he won’t be a high average guy, but his significantly better athleticism allows him to provide real defensive value and a skill set that has room for growth. Tigers fans thought he was a pretty terrific defensive outfielder, and while the sample is way too small for it to have strong meaning, UZR agrees with their assessment. In many ways, he’s similar to Jayson Werth – an athletic OF with good defense, gap power, and enough walks to offset the strikeouts.
Honestly, I think Joyce has a better long term future than Wladimir Balentien, who I know many of you are still quite high on. The fact that he’s left-handed makes him a much better fit for Safeco, and his significantly better defense would be a welcome sight running around left field.
Honestly, I’d trade Putz for Joyce straight up, one for one. He’s probably something close to a league average corner outfielder right now (assuming that Tigers fans are right about his defense), at 24, with upside to get to a +3 or +3.5 win level. He’d also be under team control through 2014.
If the Tigers want to give the Mariners a package that includes Joyce and other stuff, it’s going to be a massive steal for the M’s. If it’s just Joyce, it’s still a great trade. If it’s Larish and stuff, then I’m less excited, but would still listen depending on what the other stuff was.
dave…shhh…don’t be jinxing this deal by saying the m’s might get a steal. don’t say anything but the facts about the players…there might be tiger people lurking here to get your analysis and might decide to block any putz for joyce & other stuff trade.
We’re no longer Bad-deal Bavasi and company so teams have to check up on this stuff now you know!
I think the M ’s need more for Putz than Joyce.
Trading Putz feels like throwing in the towel for 2009. I’m ok with that if it gets us an impact piece for the future, but that’s not what Joyce is. We have enough potential corner outfielders already.
Why isn’t Joyce the Tigers’ LF? Why did they feel they needed to shift Guillen and Inge around if they thought Joyce was legit?
I think the M ’s need more for Putz than Joyce.
Have you not noticed the market for relief pitchers is crashing? K-Rod wanted 5/75 – he’s getting half of that. Good late inning relievers like Howry and Affeldt are signing for $3 to $4 million per year. Huston Street was part of a three player package for a rent-a-Matt-Holiday. This is not several years ago when teams were paying through the moon for relief pitchers.
Trading Putz feels like throwing in the towel for 2009. I’m ok with that if it gets us an impact piece for the future, but that’s not what Joyce is. We have enough potential corner outfielders already.
Joyce is probably more valuable to the Mariners in 2009 than Putz is. He’s something like a +1.5 to +2 win outfielder right now. He’s probably 20 runs better than anyone else in the organization for 2009, and it’s not like league average OFs are signing for free.
The M’s can replace Putz and a lot easier than they can find another Matt Joyce.
Why isn’t Joyce the Tigers’ LF? Why did they feel they needed to shift Guillen and Inge around if they thought Joyce was legit?
Inge and Guillen make $.
The control until 2014 for an average to above average player makes this a good move.
Baker blogs along about the subject this morning
more likely he ends up having something like Eric Hinske’s career
OK, so Eric Hinske is at .773 OPS/100 OPS+. We just picked a couple of similar guys with career offensive numbers better than that off the scrap heap in Branyan and Shelton. Ben Broussard also falls into this class of “hey, I sort of have a bat, and I’m cheap” class of guys.
So, yeah, I’d say the return for Putz should be more than Larish, if there’s pretty good odds of Larish being your standard, generic Replacement Level 1B that you can easily find on the open market for nothing more than a million or two on a year deal.
Shouldn’t the M’s just wait until July when (hopefully) both the economy and Putz’s value will be up?
Dave, if the M’s pick up Joyce are you thinking a Joyce/Ichiro/Wlad outfield in that order?
Well then I must be overvaluing Putz. Dave, how many wins does Putz give the M’s?
If they move Putz, I’m a little concerned about who fills in all these relief openings. I certainly don’t want them moving Morrow back to the bullpen, nor do I want them to push to sign Fields. Despite Green’s excellent performance, I have trouble seeing him in the 9th. Other ideas?
I just don’t think Wlad is the answer in the Mariner’s outfield. He struggled at both the plate and in the field last year. I know Reed isn’t the long-term answer but I like him in Center better than Balentin.
This should put the cat amongst the pigeons.
What about Marcus Thames or Granderson?
If the M’s give up Putz, Baker is suggesting the M’s will go back with Morrow in the pen as the closer. If they do that, I think you have look at this deal differently and in my mind, it spoils the deal for me. They need to keep Morrow in the rotation and let him develop and reach his potential. Find someone else to take the closer position.
“If they move Putz, I’m a little concerned about who fills in all these relief openings.”
Don’t worry about who is pitching in relief until the M’s have an offense that can score runs and starting pitching and defense that can prevent runs. If a car doesn’t have an engine or wheels, don’t worry about its side and rear view mirrors.
Will M’s sign Fields???
Tek,
I don’t want to solve one problem by creating another. If the solution for adding offense is to take Morrow out of the rotation or ‘waste’ (certainly an overstatement on my part) a pick on Fields, I’m not interested.
It would be great to get Joyce and young shortstop Cale Iorg from the Tigers for JJ.
What do people think about trading JJ to the Cards for Rick Ankiel? I know he’s around 30 years old, but he’d add some left handed pop to either center or right and would be a good stop gap until Halman is ready. I’d prefer to try and package JJ to the Cards for Colby Rasmus, but I’ve previously read he’s untouchable.
Just read on mlb.com that Kerry Wood is close to a deal with the Indians. That would take Mets and Indians out of the running for JJ.
The closer market possibly tighteneth.
From Rotoworld Link
The Indians appear to be close to signing closer Kerry Wood to a two-year contract, MLB.com has learned.
A third-year option may or may not be included. If Wood signs with the Indians, it would increase the Tigers’ sense of urgency in talks for J.J. Putz.
See, it used to be that Baker had a GM to talk about who actually thought like him. I get the impression Z is a little different. Z isn’t going to make Morrow the closer just because Baker says he is. Baker (although a friend of USSM, a good guy, better than his predecessor, etc.), is, to put it gently, not very good at this sort of analysis.
Morrow almost threw a no-hitter last year against the Yankees. He’s going to be a starter.
Good point CCW. I think Z is pretty shrewd at ‘playing the game’ and isn’t going to make any decisions on what Morrow would or wouldn’t do in this situation as it would potentially hurt his position in a Putz deal.
I’m just curious how many winning teams are built around a bunch of league average players?
Lets assume that Putz returns to form. If so, he’s one of the very top closers in the game.
Trading him for six years of league average, doesn’t get you anywhere. League average guys aren’t difficult to acquire. And, I’m totally against the idea of getting all excited about a guy who’s put up decent numbers for a short period of time.
You trade to get better, not to be more average. Unless someone blows you away with a deal, you don’t move him. There’s no need to. He can still be moved at the deadline. You create a hole now, you may end up putting Morrow into that role, which nobody wants. THINK about long-term affect.
Plus, should they sign Fields, it gives him time to potentially replace JJ by the end of the season (though I think sometime next year is more appropriate.
Lastly, if we’re getting a guy that Halman or Saunders might replace, where’s the value? Don’t put up blocks for potentially better young players.
Some of you are just giddy about making a trade…..any trade…..which is the wrong attitude.
Alaskan,
The problems are not equal. Fixing the bullpen is easier than fixing other parts of the roster. Hell, Bavasi could assemble a decent, cheap bullpen just about every year. Furthermore, there is nothing beyond speculation that a Putz trade necessitates moving Morrow to the pen.
I agree with CCW and Andren.
Shouldn’t the M’s just wait until July when (hopefully) both the economy and Putz’s value will be up?
I’d say there’s just as good of a chance of Putz’s value being down. Relievers are notoriously inconsistent, even the good ones, and a slow start or another DL trip could torpedo Putz’s value in a hurry. Realistically, you’re not going to get much more than Joyce even if Putz rebounds, and doing it now eliminates significant risk.
Dave, if the M’s pick up Joyce are you thinking a Joyce/Ichiro/Wlad outfield in that order?
Yea, that’s how I’d run it, with Reed getting some time in the OF and Wlad DH’ing occassionally.
Well then I must be overvaluing Putz. Dave, how many wins does Putz give the M’s?
Marcel has him projected for 55 innings and a 3.48 FIP – it’s clearly scared by last year’s struggles. At those marks, that’d make him about +1.8 wins above replacement.
If you think he’ll be more like 60 IP/3.00 FIP, that’d make him +2.4 wins above replacement.
I’d call him a +2 win reliever for 2009. And, let’s call Joyce +1.5 wins, because he’d have to be a +10 defender in LF to be league average, and we don’t have enough evidence that he definitely is.
So, you have a +2 win reliever for one year at $5.5 million or two years at $14.1 million, and then he goes away. Or, you have a +1.5 win outfielder for $400,000 for three years, then three more years of arbitration salaries that still won’t approach his market value.
I have no idea how you can look at this from where the M’s are right now and decide that you’d rather have Putz.
FWIW, Zduriencik via Divish:
Zduriencik said that Brandon Morrow’s conversion to a starter will continue, but admitted that it could change if personnel moves were made. He said that’s the case with any player. But as of now, they are looking at Morrow as a starter. If they trade Putz, maybe that changes.
“I haven’t talked to him about it yet,” Zduriencik said of Morrow staying a starter. “I think it’s something he wants to do. Myself, Don and the staff will get together and have this debate for quite a period of time, but as of right now, my understanding is that he has been told that he would be given a chance to be in rotation. We haven’t change dour mind on that and don’t know what we will.â€
“I do think that any type of player moves, whether it be signing someone, or trading someone, or bringing someone in, whatever you do to improve your ball club, has a domino effect, no question about it,” Zduriencik said. “I think when the day is said and done, our job is to put the best talented players on the field in the position where they can have the most success. How we determine that is an ongoing process that will remain unanswered until we roll into spring training and realize exactly what this ball club is going to look like.”
Joyce seems to be pretty similar to Raul only with good D. Pretty amazing- Raul is going to get 8-10mil a year and a Joyce could be traded for a relief pitcher coming of an injury riddled season.
Also, if Closers are in a buyers market, why would you want to move JJ when his value is affected by a flood of closers?
Would you sell your house right now, knowing you’ll have to lose capitol to do it? No. So why expect the M’s to sell low? The are in no rush….only the GM wannabe’s are.
Yeah, I like the idea of Matt Joyce, considering that the OF right now is Ichiro/Reed/Wlad. Ugh.
Come to think of it, I think sweetening the pot with Wlad to enhance the talent coming back for Putz might not be the most terrible idea, because Safeco is just a terrible ballpark for his skill set. He’s much more likely to blossom someplace where righties aren’t completely screwed when they pull the ball. Combine with [warning:rosterbation] a Baldelli signing and Reed would be OK as the 4th in an Ichiro/Baldelli/Joyce OF.
Zduriencik’s quote doesn’t make me fearful that Morrow will become a reliever if Putz is traded. Morrow will become a reliever if he can’t develop into an effective starter.
I hold one firm belief…..never trade for outfielders who are a significant upgrade. Outfielders are easily made. If Joyce played the infield or even CF, it might be worth it. But you don’t give up a guy who has shown himself to be a top 5 reliever, for a guy who could likely be the next coming of Ben Broussard.
who aren’t a significant upgrade….oops
Tek,
I would normally agree with you. Here’s why I’m concerned: (a) if Putz goes, then you’ve lost quite a chunk of your bullpen. That’s Morrow, RRS and Putz, all at once. Obviously those guys are all replaceable, but I can’t imagine it’s all that easy to replace them in one offseason. But maybe it is, and that’s why I was looking for names of who might fill these roles. (b) The quotes from GMZ about Morrow from Divish & Baker (see msb’s comment above) certainly leave a door open that I would prefer was firmly shut.
I’m not questioning Joyce’s value – Dave makes the argument very well in his response to my question that it’s a great deal for us – I’m just wondering out loud how GMZ would go about solving the problem he’s created with a trade (the bullpen), even if it is smaller than the one he fixed (LF).
If Joyce is positive on defense It’s hard to see the downside here. I don’t know how much more a rival team could offer.
Boy what a pleasure it is to have TRUST in the GM. It makes these discussions so much more enjoyable and less tense. And I am less fearful to know that JMZ knows what he is doing and probably knows more than most of us (at least more than myself and I always felt I would have made better decisions than BB). This, as compared to waiting for BB and dreading for him to make a stupid move. There use to be no point in discussing now it is just plain fun. We don’t have to envy the A’s any more.
Honestly? Bullpen talent is one of the easiest areas to patch for fairly cheap, and it looks like it’s a buyer’s market this year anyway. Besides, it’s going to take a lot of lucky breaks and everything going JUST right just to get this team to 85 wins and a small chance at contention in 2009, so realistically, the downside for taking risks in the bullpen is probably less (in that the mistakes won’t likely be expensive in terms of talent or cash you give up the same way a position player mistake might be). Besides, JJ’s success in his role in 2005-2007 was a result of TAKING a risk by dumping an established closer…
And I am less fearful to know that JMZ knows what he is doing and probably knows more than most of us
Who’s JMZ?
Well, Rodriguez just signed with the Mets and Wood is about to sign with Cleveland, so if JJ is moved, it might be pretty quickly…
This “GMZ” thing is really annoying to me.
Come on, Derek, you should be flattered to be the inspiration for his nickname. Seriously though, if it keeps confusing people like this, it will start landing people in the moderation queue.
I like the GMZ nickname. Author war!
Alaskan,
If Bavasi could patch together a bullpen, I am not worried about Zduriencik’s ability to do so. Moreover, I am not worried that either he or Wakamatsu will panic and say “we need Morrow in the pen.” That is what Bavasi, Mac, and Grover would do, and that is one of reasons they no longer work for the Mariners.
I would assume that Z is smart enough to know that Morrow should be a starter…if JJ is traded, which it looks like is very likely, I pray they stay in house and use Green, Corcoran, etc. as the closer…
Only contenders really “need” a closer…so unless the O and D are vastly improved, keeping JJ is really pointless…I’d much rather have him and have the team competing for the West, but it’s not likely to happen…
Tek,
This is one of the things Bavasi did well. I wouldn’t assume anyone can do it just because he was successful. And keep in mind that some of that success was built on keeping Morrow from working on becoming a starter. And the Jones trade that moved Mickolio lost one of our best prospects for the pen.
I’m not saying GMZ can’t do it – I’m merely saying that I’m not as confident in his success as you are, and I’m mildly concerned about what other moves he might make (Fields, Morrow) to accomplish it. It will certainly be an interesting, and perhaps quite telling, process to watch.
Improve the defense on this team and the bullpen [pitching in general] will improve.
So happy to be rid of KRod from the AL West. I found him to be one of the more annoying pitchers out there.
More importantly, Dave or DMZ…do you know much about Blengino’s methods or priorities regarding defense? I know he has written some books and is a card-carrying SABR member but there is so little information out there from which to gauge him.
It was borne from love.
Street says, “The departure of Putz probably would result in right-hander Brandon Morrow returning to the bullpen as the closer and make it less likely that Seattle would trade Washburn. ”
Is this speculation on Street’s part? I pray it is…
Right on Topfuel, Joyce and Thames for J.J.
The real question isn’t “is ‘GMZ’ annoying?” but rather, “is annoying Derek a good thing?” Could be, could be.
If trading Putz puts Morrow in the bullpen, the net from the trade is below zero, however good Joyce and whoever turn out to be.
You should feel honored.
On a different note, what are Putz’ chances of being a type A at the end of next year? I don’t know what stats are used in reliever rankings but it seems like saves would be up there and if his 09 is smack in between his 07 and 08 then he may well qualify. Would this change Putz’ value?
Dave, you describe Joyce as an athletic outfielder comparable to that of Werth. I take it he’s a + left fielder, but is a + center fielder as well, or merely average? Either way obviously I think M’s fans would be satisfied with either, just wonder how good defensively you think he might be?
The rule of thumb is that there’s a 10 to 11 run gap between an average CF and an average RF/LF. So, if a player is +11 in a corner, we’d expect him to be average in CF.
If Joyce is a +5 LF/RF, then he’d be something like a -6 CF – not great, but not a disaster. If he’s +10 in LF/RF, then he could cover CF just fine.
For comparison purposes, what is Ichiro in RF/LF?
That is, if we were to acquire Joyce, who would be best in center?
FWIW, per Stark at ESPN
Mariners asking a lot for Putz
Posted by Jayson Stark
Clubs that have spoken to Seattle report that the Mariners haven’t discouraged teams that asked about J.J. Putz. But the asking price is hefty.
Is Joyce similar to the player we thought J.Reed was going to be?
Besides, JJ’s success in his role in 2005-2007 was a result of TAKING a risk by dumping an established closer…
This is an important point. A lot of people didn’t think JJ could be a closer. Papelbon was too young an inexperienced for that role. So was David Price. Mariano Rivera was thought to be better-suited to the 8th inning setup role. Nobody projected Kerry Wood as a closer. Todd Jones had no business being a closer (or even being in the majors) but he somehow got a bunch of saves. For that matter, a lot of people didn’t think Morrow could work as a closer because he wasn’t “proven” — until he pitched a few scorless 9ths, and suddenly “proven” he was. Not every pitcher can be a closer, apparently, but they’re a lot easier to find than many people seem to think — especially if you don’t artificially restrict yourself to the Ouroborosian “proven” requirement.
If 2009 really is a rebuilding year, it’s a fine time to try out a few cheap guys as closers until one “proves” himself.
It was borne from love.
So was syphilis.
This is the kind of Neanderthal thinking we really need to lose. Morrow would be a better starter than Washburn. Washburn could be traded for lots of things, some of which might be bullpen help. So if you trade Washburn for bullpen help, you can trade JJ and still have a decent bullpen. Street’s dominoes don’t fall.
Type of thinking that Bavasi followed, IMAO.
Which means that most sportswriters are no better at running a team than Bavasi was….
What do you think Washburn’s trade value is?
Wow prince fielder being talked about to now i guess………wtf??
I’d love to see Matt Joyce, especially with Marcel and Bill James loving him for a ~.355 wOBA next year!
I’m bummed on reports of Kerry Wood signing with the Indians. I was hoping we could get a Putz for Franklin Gutierrez deal going.
If we ever ended up with those two flanking Ichiro in the outfield I can’t even tell you how happy I’d be. The Winn-Cameron-Ichiro outfield was a thing of beauty and we should be trying our best to recreate it. It’s at attainable goal, at least from the defensive side of things. I don’t know the next time you’ll see a complete package of hitting, speed and defense (not to mention pure awesomeness) that compares to those three again.
What it means is that Steve Phillips should simply be ignored. He seems to have Prince mixed up with his dad.
Phillips misheard Fielder’s agent saying he needed to get Prince to a J.J. North’s Buffet for dinner.
A player sort of similar to Joyce, in that he has underrated corner defense and a very useful lefty bat that doesn’t garner attention is Luke Scott, and it sounds like he might be attainable now.
I know you can’t expect Baltimore to do something that stupid, but man would we be smart to take advantage if they did. Joyce/Ichiro/Scott ‘09!
Looks like some ESPN editor has now fixed Phillips’ confused reference to the Tigers instead of the Brewers.
It’s a solid wOBA, but bear in mind it’s about MLB average for a corner OF.
The only way Morrow goes to the pen is if the 2009 pen needs help and Morrow struggles to convert to a starter better than Washburn.
League average offense and plus defense is a nice player, though.
Steve Phillips has started a rumor now that Putz could be included in a deal to get Prince Fielder to Seattle. Would this limit Prince to mainly a DH role with the club? His UZR at 1B has been no better than a -7.3 in his three years in Milwaukee and would have been dead last in the league two of the three years if not for Mike Jacobs’ terrible year in the field last year.
Ignore Steve Phillips.
I try…he’s like a bad penny, keeps turning up.
You have to ignore, or at least look at with a jaundiced eye, anyone who chooses to nude subathe on a public beach a la Phillips.
If he’s just right one time though, can’t it be this? Fielder sure beats Boras-client Larish or anyone nicknamed 2qwa…
Meh – given their respective salaries and the cost to acquire, I’d rather have Joyce.
I liked Joyce early last year, but he faded pretty quick with a .262/.333/.459 August and a .163/.339/.204 September.
I think BP was pretty close to the mark prior to the season when they penned:
You’re writing him off because he had two great months and two bad months rather than four good months? Really?
If Joyce is an “outstanding defender”, he only needs to hit something like .250/.320/.430 to be a good everyday player. Do you really think he can’t hit that well?
Writing him off by no means. I just didn’t see him adjust well as they developed a bit of a book on him this year.
I also wouldn’t necessarily call a .750 OPS corner outfielder a good, every day player — even with plus defense.
It may not be a bad 2009 projection if his severely small sample size .227/.393/.318 split vs. southpaws holds up and he isn’t platooned. I’d be interested to see his MiLB splits prior to getting too serious given what the scouts have said about him to date.
Writing him off by no means. I just didn’t see him adjust well as they developed a bit of a book on him this year.
To be blunt, so what? Is there any reason to think this is in any way predictive of his future production? Evidence would be great if you have some.
I also wouldn’t necessarily call a .750 OPS corner outfielder a good, every day player — even with plus defense.
Then you’re undervaluing the skillset. If we agree that he’s going to be something like a league average hitter and a +10 defender in LF, that’s a +2.25 win player. That makes him comparable in value to Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell and better than Raul Ibanez.
We’ll definitely have to agree to disagee that he’ll be a league average corner OF at the plate, that much is certain.
I don’t buy that he’ll ever be comparable to Dunn, Burrell or Ibanez — no matter how you divine the numbers. It simply isn’t possible to know for a 23 year old player with 240 career AB’s.
I personally see him much more along the lines of a potential 4th OF and a meager haul for J.J. Putz.
Unfortunately, we appear to be down to just one suitor given that the Tribe and Mets got their closers today. Too bad Z couldn’t have moved faster and has now lost the little leverage he had.
I also think it’s usually dumb, as a premise, to trade anyone unless it is an absolute necessity when they are at the low ebb of their value after a year like Putz just had…
We’ll definitely have to agree to disagee that he’ll be a league average corner OF at the plate, that much is certain.
Let’s try this again. Do you think that he can hit .250/.320/.430 and play +10 defense in a corner?
Yes or no. Pretty easy questions.
If no, why not? “I’ve seen him” isn’t a reason that anyone should take seriously.
If yes, then you think he will be a +2.25 win player. You may not realize it, but league average offense + good defense is a good player. Joyce’s actual value doesn’t depend on you realizing this, of course, so as long as you agree that he can hit .250/.320/.430 and be a +10 defender, we can all move along.
I don’t buy that he’ll ever be comparable to Dunn, Burrell or Ibanez — no matter how you divine the numbers. It simply isn’t possible to know for a 23 year old player with 240 career AB’s.
Joyce actually has 1,353 career at-bats. Minor league data is quite useful in projecting major league performance when used properly. The fact that Joyce has a clearly defined skillset makes him pretty easy to project, actually.
I personally see him much more along the lines of a potential 4th OF and a meager haul for J.J. Putz.
You’ve yet to give a single reason why, though, beyond “he struggled in August and September”, which has no real predictive value.
Too bad Z couldn’t have moved faster and has now lost the little leverage he had.
I can’t even mock this comment properly. It stands on it’s own.
Not to pile on, but I think you do have a skewed idea of what makes an average corner OF.
League average hitter with above average defense is an average corner OF (are you sure you’re not discounting defense too much? It’s run differential that matters, not just how many he can produce).
(Also…are your figures right? The AUGUST numbers indicate an above average offense, given .770 OPS is average).
No one knows how well he’ll develop so why is everyone freaking out when he hasn’t even played a full ML season and he’s only 24. Not to mention in 92 games 31 of his 61 hits were extra-base hits.
You are in a mocking mood, no? This isn’t life or death, lighten up. I know the Mets were interested at one point in Putz, if not the Tribe. That, Dave, is lost leverage.
I’ve given amble evidence, as well as backup from the fine folks at BP, as to why I don’t see Joyce as a Dunn/Burrell/Ibanez in waiting. They are based not only on his A/AA stats (.25x AVG’s, .33x OBP) but the dreaded “observation” as well. I’d still like to see those MiLB splits as well before making up my mind re: his offensive upside. Whether or not you take “I’ve see him” as a consideration, scouts and organizations do it every day.
Believe it or not, there is a trade off at some point between the validity of statistical projections based on numbers (probably at least 500 ML AB) and empirical evidence. My view is that empirical evidence is every bit as valid as statistical analysis for young players. If it was all about their early numbers, Kevin Maas would be in the HOF. If it was all about small sample sets, Jeremy Reed would have been anointed based on his 2004 audition. Oh wait, he was anointed. At any rate, our views may vary.
I think Joyce has the very real potential to be an average player as per your guidelines, but an average player does not an average corner outfielder make.
I’m sorry everything doesn’t always fit into your nice little box. It’s not the way that the real world works. It’s not even the way that baseball works!
No comment re: dumping Putz coming off the 3.88 ERA/1.60 WHIP campaign? Seems a bit panicky to me…
G – I doubt that is an AL league average corner outfielder hitting-wise, but I could be proven wrong!
I am really curious of how Balentien would rank defensively compared to Joyce.
Because, as it is, a Joyce acquisition would directly effect Balentien’s playing time. That is unless one of Joyce/Balentien/Ichiro is switched to CF full time. Not sure where that would stand but .250/.320/.430 doesn’t seem like it would be too much a stretch for Wlad given his 07 and 08 showings in AAA. His 08 stint with the Mariners didn’t go so well but he should still get another look at a full-time job.
Wlad can hit okay.. as long as nobody throws him a breaking ball.
Plus, Wlad isn’t a great defender.
^^Haha. Yeah I’m pretty sure if I went out there last year and threw Wlad my curve it would baffle him. If he learns how to hit or lay off a breaking ball he could develop into a pretty good power corner OF.
“My view is that empirical evidence is every bit as valid as statistical analysis for young players.”
It’s a good thing you view them as equally valid. Statistical analysis is directly based on empirical evidence. …or perhaps you were looking for the term anecdotal evidence.
ML, you really don’t get what Dave’s saying, do you?
He’s NOT saying Joyce would put up similar offensive numbers to Dunn, Burrell, or Ibanez…
What he IS saying is that Joyce would put up a RUN DIFFERENTIAL similar to what those players produce, given that all those guys are below average defenders.
Look to the M’s in 2001, or the Rays this year… It wasn’t their amazing offenses that set them apart.
It was their defense.
You’re not valuing defense enough.
No, I meant empirical evidence — as per the dictionary: “depending upon observation alone.”
And I do get what Dave is saying. Heck, I even donated to his college fund. Where I differ is that I tend to be skeptical of many of these statistical models when the MLB sample set is so very small.
Anecdotally (based on case study reports or random investigations) we all know that every Matt Joyce does not turn out to be Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, even when you factor in defense, which tends to fluctuate far more over time (even in the best of statistical models) than does hitting. BP’s 2008 DEF projection for Joyce was -1.
I am really curious of how Balentien would rank defensively compared to Joyce.
Wlad isn’t good. And he really should be batting half his games in a park that doesn’t punish righty pull hitters. He’s a trade candidate.
doubt that is an AL league average corner outfielder hitting-wise, but I could be proven wrong!
I don’t think that word means what you think it means. In this context “average” isn’t some hand-wave, and it’s not close to the median (despite what your intuition might lead you to expect) because MLB players don’t fall into a normal distribution, which means (perhaps counter-intuitively, and certainly counter to common usage) average players aren’t common. You might want to read this (and, more importantly, the primary sources it links), or even this which is primarily about basketball but makes a good point about how our intuition tends to lead us towards thinking in terms of replacement level rather than average players.
No, I meant empirical evidence — as per the dictionary: “depending upon observation alone.â€
And stats are gathered from what, exactly? A hit is a hit. An out is an out. Those are observed data. They are empirical. And calculations based on them are just as valid (as long as you understand what those calculations determine).
Thanks for the links. I am very familiar with VORP, but even if we assume for a minute that what we gain with Joyce over Balentien or, worst case scenario, over a replacement player is both quantifiable and meaningful, does that offset the loss of Putz for some unproven TBD closer?
Seems like a no to me and also a very ill-advised decision to entertain yanking Morrow back-and-forth once again as per Z’s earlier comments.
Talks seem to be moving towards a Joyce and Larish resolution according to most sources, which I guess would sting somewhat less.
More nuanced things that don’t lend themselves to outright measurement, such as the all-important ability to play the never-ending game of adjustment between pitcher and batter. Joyce didn’t adjust well down the stretch. As we all know, some flashes in the pan never adjust once their weaknesses have been documented and can then be exploited. It will be interesting to see if BP changes their tune on him after his impressive 2009.
Er, Freudian slip…
I’ve given amble evidence . . .
It appears to me that you have ambled around Dave’s ample evidence.
I doubt that is an AL league average corner outfielder hitting-wise, but I could be proven wrong!
The average AL left fielder hit .267/.336/.430 last year. Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 (sample size of only 242 at-bats, of course. But he put comparable numbers in the minors, and those mean something.)
Perhaps you’re overrating the current crop of AL corner outfielders?
Whether or not you take “I’ve see him†as a consideration, scouts and organizations do it every day.
Are you a scout? You’ve given no reason for anyone to accept what you’ve seen. You may well be right about Joyce, but why should anyone believe one commenter on a blog over all the other evidence available?
And I’m no expert, but the only people I’ve seen take BP’s fielding metrics seriously are BP employees.
LOL re: amble/ample!
So the average OPS for a LF was .766. Probably higher still for RF. A .750 OPS with ++ defense seems a little grim to me for Putz, that is my primary point.
I think you’re right about BP’s fielding metrics, and most fielding metrics for that matter. I’ve watched baseball ardently for 30+ years if that gives me any cachet. Mario Impemba and Lloyd McClendon agreed with me: re: Joyce adjusting, for what that’s worth!
And to clarify:
I don’t know if anyone’s saying Joyce can step in tomorrow and be an average corner outfielder at the plate. But if the stats and the reports about his defense are even close to true, when it comes to total contribution, his glove could very well make up the gap between his bat and the average corner outfielder’s bat. For dirt. That’s probably more valuable than JJ right now, I’d say.
A .750 OPS with ++ defense seems a little grim to me for Putz, that is my primary point.
Except, well, it’s not. As Dave explained, it’s not far behind Putz’s true value right now (setting aside any growth from a 24 year old player), plus he’s under team control through 2014.
Also… this guy seems to have somewhat similar of a skillset going through the minors, though with much better speed.
Just to beat the dead horse one more time.
If we can get a Joyce or say, an Adam Jones (just kidding), for JJ we have to do it.
A closer is the final piece to a serious Contender and is only worth looking for if that’s where the Team is at.
JJ is probably going to have a great year in ‘09 but what’s the use of having an elite closer on a sub .500 team?
If we get value for the future by trading Putz now Z has to make that deal.
ec, Dave’s “True Value” (apologies to John Madden) calculations are sometimes a little fishy IMHO.
link
Sorry, I don’t buy that either, unless by replacement reliever Dave really meant replacement closer!
[politics]
What about that analysis don’t you buy, ML?
“Sorry, I don’t buy that either, unless by replacement reliever Dave really meant replacement closer!”
ML, closers are relievers who, by pitching in a certain inning, acquire a fairly random stat invented by Jerome Holtzman.
I would have to think M’s fans would rather have Rick Ankiel than Matt Joyce, right?
I know the Mets were interested at one point in Putz, if not the Tribe. That, Dave, is lost leverage.
There were 5 or 6 teams who were shopping for a closer this winter, and there were 5 or 6 closers available on the market. Two teams signed closers, which takes two teams out of the market for Putz… and two closers off the market.
There’s no lost leverage at all. The demand and supply decreased simultaneously.
I’ve given amble evidence, as well as backup from the fine folks at BP, as to why I don’t see Joyce as a Dunn/Burrell/Ibanez in waiting.
I called him a “left-handed Jayson Werth”, not an “Adam Dunn in waiting”. But, I guess we’re just seeing the results of what happens when someone relies on BP for actual analysis anymore.
Whether or not you take “I’ve see him†as a consideration, scouts and organizations do it every day.
You really think scouts sit around saying things like “I don’t think he’s that good” and fail to offer any substance to back up their points? I’m not rejecting subjective reasoning – I’m questioning why anyone should care about your subjective reasoning. You haven’t given anyone here any reason to give your opinion any kind of credence.
If it was all about small sample sets, Jeremy Reed would have been anointed based on his 2004 audition. Oh wait, he was anointed. At any rate, our views may vary.
If only someone was writing about how that small sample wasn’t predictive. Oh, wait, there was. That was us.
Comments like “our views may vary” are pointless. If you want anyone to care about your view, you have to give them a reason to think you know what you’re talking about.
I think Joyce has the very real potential to be an average player as per your guidelines, but an average player does not an average corner outfielder make.
Guess what – an average player is an average player is an average player. The fact that you don’t recognize this doesn’t make it less true. Read BP less, get away from valuing offense as 99% of a player’s value, and you’ll be amazed what you can learn.
No comment re: dumping Putz coming off the 3.88 ERA/1.60 WHIP campaign? Seems a bit panicky to me…
My comment: I wished you would have used ERA and WHIP earlier, so I could have realized that you’re still stuck in 1996.
I would have to think M’s fans would rather have Rick Ankiel than Matt Joyce, right?
Nope. Ankiel is an FA after 2009. Joyce makes the league minimum until 2012. The difference in present value is overwhelmed by the difference in future salary.
And it’s STILL not very well supported. At best, it’s anecdotal, without looking at the empirical evidence (which Dave has kindly supplied) of what the market is actually offering, and what statistical methods are saying.
ML-
A .750 OPS with ++ defense is Ichiro! There’s nothing grim about Ichiro!
Dave, looking around at other teams still wanting a closer, how does Joyce compare to Joe Mather of the Cards?
Mather is 2 years older and is RH, but has plenty of other similarities with Joyce (good defense in small sample size, good power, plenty of K’s, under team control through 2014).
Looking a little deeper, Mather’s BABIP (.258 with a 21.6 LD%) drags down his overall numbers, but with more even luck his numbers would look pretty good. And he has more defensive versatility than Joyce (the Cards gave him some time at 1st, 3rd, and CF, in addition to LF and RF). Might give the M’s another option at 3rd, plus the OF corners. Age is the biggest problem though. Even if you buy that he is a late bloomer, his is 26.
Sorry, I don’t buy that either, unless by replacement reliever Dave really meant replacement closer!
That’s nice that you don’t buy it, but since Dave’s shown his work going into why he values K-Rod the way he does and you haven’t, why should I care what you think?
You seem to think making unsupported assertions is a good way to win an argument. Perhaps you should reconsider that.
I’d like to remind everyone that Bavasi often thought he needed to add “left-handed sock” to the team, but he utterly failed to do so.
So this isn’t new in terms of strategy, but it’s certainly new in terms of execution.
Before everyone freaks out that this potential trade would mean Morrow would head back to the pen as closer remember that the M’s already have a former closer on staff in Miguel Bautista.
I’m not saying that Bautista is good at closing ball games (there is little evidence other than one season in Arizona) but wouldn’t it make more sense to keep Morrow in the rotation, and than move Miggy to closing out ball games? Does anyone have any idea on how Miggy would project as a closer (I’m assuming not that well)?
Granted, the best solution would be to trade Bautista for a ham sandwich, clear his salary, and sign someone cheap on the up and up, but if we are stuck with his contract would this be the best possible situation for the whole of the team?
The next season or two should have a theme song and it should be The Killers – Exitlude
It’s a little early to be calling Joyce a +10 defender I think. But it’s probably a reasonable risk to think he could be league average bat in his major league career.
Hmm, I throw out the Mather-for-Putz querry, and now Rosenthal is reporthing that the Cards offered Ankiel “and a prospect” for Putz. “And a prospect” is basically a worthless phrase since it can mean anything from Colby Rasmus to some dude none of us have ever heard of who has a good arm, but is only 17.
Still, it is an interesting offer. Ankiel is a free agent after 2009 and I don’t see him as a good center-piece for any Putz trade. The only exception is that he could probably be spun-off to a team like Atlanta or the Yankees for a decent return. Still, I don’t know that I would pull a trigger on that offer without knowing whether Ankiel could be spun-off, and what for.