The Starting Nine
After a night to sleep on it and a chance to talk to some people and find out what the two lower level prospects bring to the table, I’m now of the opinion that this is a fantastic deal for the Mariners. This is best illustrated by looking at the roster as a whole, as it stands right now. The offense/defense numbers that follow are position adjusted projections for ‘09, and remember, +2 is league average.
Line-Up:
1. Ichiro, RF, +5 offense, +5 defense, +20 replacement level: +3 wins
2. Lopez, 2B, -2.5 offense, -5 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.25 wins
3. OPEN, DH, -10 offense, +0 defense, +20 replacement level: + 1 win (this is a guess)
4. Beltre, 3B, +5 offense, +10 defense, +20 replacement level: +3.5 wins
5. Branyan, 1B, -5 offense, +0 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.5 wins
6. Gutierrez, CF, -5 offense, +10 defense, +20 replacement level: +2.5 wins
7. Clement, C, +5 offense, -10 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.5 wins
8. Balentien, LF, -10 offense, -10 defense, +20 replacement level: +0.0 wins
9. Betancourt, SS, -5 offense, -5 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.0 wins
Bench (this includes playing time projections based on their reserve status):
C: Johjima, -3 offense, +0 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.2 wins
IF: Shelton, +0 offense, +0 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.5 wins
IF: Hulett, -5 offense, +2 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.2 wins
OF: Chavez, -5 offense, +5 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.5 wins
Position Player Totals: -22.5 offense, -5 defense, +16.65 wins
There are some holes, obviously, but all those holes have legitimate upside. I’m not a big Balentien fan, as I have him performing at replacement level, but there’s definitely potential for him to get to something like a +1.5 win player this year if he makes some strides. I gave Clement a very harsh defensive rating, so maybe his work ethic allows him to improve faster than expected and he proves me wrong. I’m assuming the team is going to sign a stop-gap DH and get moderate production from that spot, but it’s pretty easy to find a guy who can mash and has some upside, and they could pick up another win there. Maybe Lopez doesn’t regress as much as I expect offensively or Betancourt finds his missing range somewhere. All of these won’t happen, but some could.
All told, I think it’s fair to expect the current crop of position players on the roster to be something like +15 to +20 wins above replacement. A contending team would get about +25 wins from their position players, so the pitching staff would have to be tremendous in order to get this group to the playoffs, but it’s a huge improvement over where this team finished 2008.
Yes, there are questions about where Heilman fits, how this affects Morrow, and how they sort out the pitching staff, but I’m pretty Zduriencik isn’t done, and we’ll look at the pitching staff once it’s settled. You build a franchise around position players, though, and Zduriencik has made sure that the starting nine that takes the field in 2009 is significantly better than the one that took the field in 2008.
Valbuena stays? No mention this morning on the radio or in the NYT story of him in the deal.
While the jury is still out on this deal, what I do like is it shows a total departure from our old administration.
* No trading of (very) valuable prospects.
* No signing of mediocre veterans to bloated, long-term contracts.
* Clear valuing of defense.
Change I can believe in, indeed!
I think it’ll definitely be an improved lineup (how could it not?) but I still have trouble seeing where this team is going to produce runs. The improved OF defense may make some of our overpaid stiffs look better on the mound but that won’t necessarily translate into wins if they don’t get any run support.
And have we completely given up on Yuni ever reaching his potential defensively? I still have faint hope that this will be the year that he finally lives up to the promise he showed when he was first called up.
I think it’ll definitely be an improved lineup (how could it not?) but I still have trouble seeing where this team is going to produce runs
The line-up above would project out to about 740 runs scored over a full season. That’s not great, but it’s only 35 runs less than Tampa scored last year, and they ended up in the World Series.
Obviously, the M’s don’t have their pitching or defense (though the latter is hugely improved), and no one here is projecting 90 wins for this crop, but the offense isn’t horrible.
I’m a big picture guy-thanks for this thread Dave.
I think it becomes pretty clear that there are potential routes where the Ms could make some truly meaningful strides especially if instant gratification isn’t a factor.
As it stands, ‘09 is an “everything must go a little better than right” season. If Wlad could step up to be something akin to league average that would be huge.
This also screams “extend Beltre” to me.
As a nod to instant gratification, the open DH could be plugged short term by a guy like Bradley to maybe squeeze an extra 1 to 1.5 wins.
Would you still argue that Zduriencik should try to deal Yuni? If so, could a guy like LAD’s Hu (i.e. a guy whose value is mostly derived from his defense) plug positively into what Zduriencik should be trying to do with the position players given what he accomplished last evening with the addition of Gutierrez? You’ve commented above about how the offense is serviceable, could they go even more for defense?
Z has left himself a lot of room for improvement, here. It would not be difficult to improve at 1B, DH, and LF – the three easiest places to find offense – and Furcal at SS would be huge.
Personally, I think they should call it quits in the OF. Even if Wlad completely tanks, in Safeco, Chavez will have tremendous value in LF (which is almost like a second center field).
Heck, this could still turn into the true Dave-endorsed 2009 plan if they sign Furcal and Bradley to DH (and play LF if Clement is DHing).
That’s good to hear, Dave.
Since Z appears to place a premium on defense I really hope that means he’s going to keep Beltre around. Besides Felix, he’s the one guy from last year’s team I’d most hate to see go.
Is there any chance that the M’s management could develop and utilize (correct use of that word) a defensive platoon this season? Would it make sense? I think that we’re a better team with Chavez rather than Balentine in the OF, and especially so when Washburn or Silva is on the mound. So why not try to go adjust your outfield according to the number of balls in play that will land out there?
Is the potential opportunity cost of not giving Balentine his chance to develop too high to put him in a platoon at this age?
What about those other minor leaguers? Vargas seems to be AAA roster filler, but Cleto and the Venezuelan kid have too small a footprint so far for me to be able to judge anything. What do you hear about them? Does Cleto have anything other than velocity to distinguish him?
An 80 win team whose improvements are cheap sounds good to me. We also don’t know what Z has left. If he can find us the right pieces, contention might not be out of the question, if not, we got nice cheap stopgaps.
I’m surprised you have Branyan as -5 offense; platooned, I’d think he’d be better than that.
As a nod to instant gratification, the open DH could be plugged short term by a guy like Bradley to maybe squeeze an extra 1 to 1.5 wins.
The M’s aren’t in on Bradley or Furcal. It seems pretty unlikely that they’re going to drop significant money on any free agents this winter. The DH will probably be a Griffey-like player.
Is there any chance that the M’s management could develop and utilize (correct use of that word) a defensive platoon this season?
I would imagine that this is exactly the plan. I’d imagine it’ll probably be something like a 75/25 start-share, with Chavez playing on days when the flyball/contact guys are pitching and coming in as a defensive replacement in close games. It’s a great idea, honestly – you give Balentien a chance to show he can hit bendy pitches while leveraging Chavez’s defense to keep the team relatively competitive.
Is the potential opportunity cost of not giving Balentine his chance to develop too high to put him in a platoon at this age?
If he plays 60% of the time against RHP and 100% of the time versus LHP (including time at DH), that’s 500 PA. That’s not going to stunt his growth. If he wants 600 PA, he needs to get better defensively and prove he can hit something besides a fastball.
What about those other minor leaguers?
That’s a separate post. We’ll get to that.
This defense combined with Safeco Field’s spacious dimensions could make home games a lot more interesting for me as a fan (and potential ticket-buyer). I have to give Jack Z credit for allowing me some optimism that things are already moving in a positive direction. Wonder if moves can still be made to improve the middle infield D? Doesn’t seem like there are a lot of options out there at SS. Man, I hope Betancourt is on a treadmill somewhere right now.
By comparison, last year’s M’s netted a -33 UZR, and that’s with an extraordinary season from Beltre.
If the M’s don’t sign any big free agents, the payroll is going to be way down this year. That’s not a problem in itself, but I sure hope they come back with wallets ablazing next year (and/or use the money to extend Felix and/or Beltre).
That’s what I like so far. Z has improved the team at a relatively small cost and that’s something Bavasi never seemed able to do. Even if this trade turns out to be a wash that’s still better than the typical Bavasi deal. It also seems like Armstrong and Lincoln have given him the freedom to call the shots which they may not have done with a younger GM.
I can see this team potentially getting to .500 next year and that’s more than I hoped for a month ago.
huh. and I had to spend the morning hearing Stark ramble on about how the Mariners should have gotten a real player/prospect for a pitcher like JJ– I believe his summation of the trade was ‘quantity over quality’. ah me.
it was really interesting to hear Zduriencik talk about the players involved last night; to hear his capsule descriptions of what they saw in them, esp. the minor leaguers.
While the smell of the crap in my pants is still flowing through the house. I am so happy, a FRANKY G jersey is going to be very hot with me. Its gonna be a great year to watch the defense in the outfield. I just told my 9 year old about the trade and told him what the M’s will possibly be like next season. My son said something that made the most sense I have heard in a while “As long as they are not in last place Daddy, then life will be better then it was last season!”
Jack Z:
Man I LOVE hearing stuff like that coming from our GM! Seems basic, but you know what I mean,
I’m gonna miss JJ, and the piece I definitely hate to lose is Valbuena. But I’m with Dave – this makes baseball sense and is a good move for the M’s. And I’ve been a Gutierrez fan for a while, so I’m glad to have him on board.
This is just a totally different feeling from the last few off-seasons… I like it!
Also – holy crap the Mets have a killer bullpen. They even got Sean Green too? As a Phillies fan I am NOT happy with this trade, good as it is for the M’s!
If Jack is saying “We’re not finished”, I’m interpreting that to mean that the infield defense reconstruction might be next. I’ll be interested to see what he does at SS….am wondering if a trade for Jack Wilson might be a possibility?
So Z wants to construct a team that’s built to play in Safeco Field 81 times a season? What a concept!
I like this trade a lot and I like the direction of where this team is going. Gone are the days where we are being told how a free agent signing will make the team a world series champion (OMG WE GOT WEAVER….OMG WE GOT SEXSON….OMG WE GOT SILVA). I like Z’s approach, it seems more subtle but you can tell behind doors he is high fiving himself about how much of a bad ass he is.
Is it ok to get an M’s uniform with the GM’s name on it? I might consider this………
M’s pick light-hitting SS Reegie Corona from the Yankees organization in Round 1 of the Rule 5 draft. More free talent!
Seems to me that any good information would come from scouting and talent evaluation. Something Zduriencik is unquestionably good at. Not to say that he’s assured of success here, but I’m not worried by the “small footprint”–in fact, small footprint players are the ones who’d be spotted by Zduriencik’s people.
I think he’s much better equipped to follow through on this than Bavasi or the other chuckleheads still in the organization…
The thing I like about this trade from a roster construction philosophy point of view is that Zduriencik isn’t quite sure what some of the players are going to do yet. He’s not looking at these players as guys who are going to fill “roles” (with the exception of Gutierrez who will obviously be the CF and rock on defense.) He made this trade to acquire players, not puzzle pieces, if that makes sense. The idea is to add talent, in any form. That’s a great sign.
Another great sign is that Zdurenciek has shown he’s a capable negotiator and capable of working with other GMs! This was an complicated three team deal, and it’s nice to see it, because there were some doubts in my mind about how a former talent evaluator would handle the trade process.
This roster is starting to look fun. Interesting parts are coming together. I’m all for a Beltre extension. It looks like GMZ can turn this ship around faster than expected.
I’m just now listening to the interview linked above: “The goal was to increase the talent level in this organization…” YES!
Oh man, I loved this. All he did was talk about skills and talent. I won’t go so far as to say that between the lines he said “I think Arron Heilman is better suited to relief than starting,” but that was the feeling I got.
I love the fact that instead of talking like the huge market GMs (who set up their fan base for a let down by talking big about what they’re going to do, and probably also getting themselves into binds where they have to make undesirable moves to satisfy the local media/fan base), GMZ doesn’t commit himself to moves that he might not want to make later. And he’s honest, or at least, sincere.
Thanks for this Dave. Exactly the kind of mid-term update I was hoping to see.
So the outfield defense is clearly, markedly better. For a team with a couple of flyball pitchers that plays half its games in Safeco, that’s obviously a big, big deal. Kudos to Zduriencik for recognizing that and addressing it without losing prospects, draft picks, or enormous amounts of money.
But that still leaves the infield defense, and the team’s groundball-oriented pitchers (especially Felix, when he’s being the best version of himself). Branyan seems to be an upgrade over Sexson, but that’s damning with faint praise, and while Beltre is still Captain Awesome, the middle infield is unchanged. That’s why I’m sorry to see Valbuena go, because I thought there might be a chance to trade Lopez for something (particularly since there were rumors the Dodgers were looking at Robinson Cano, who last year essentially was a worse version of Jose Lopez). But Lopez is a net asset for the team as it currently is composed, assuming he doesn’t regress at the plate again. That leaves Betancourt — you really think he’s only -5 defensively, even position-adjusted? With Adam Everett and Caesar Izturis off the market, is there any opportunity left for a defensive upgrade? Perhaps the M’s can NRI some glove-oriented SS guys to light a fire under Yuni’s butt?
Also, I’ll be interested in reading the analysis of the minor league guys. Given Zduriencik’s background, I’m willing to bet at least one of them is pretty good, or at least has the potential for a lot of upside. Granted, you can’t get nothing but diamonds in the rough in deals like this — JJ isn’t that good, even with Reed and Valbuena thrown in — but this is one area where a guy with a strong scouting history and connections can know way more than any of us armchair analysts.
I had to spend the morning hearing Stark ramble on about how the Mariners should have gotten a real player/prospect for a pitcher like JJ
Figures. I was saying to somebody last night – just watch, lots of people are going to bitch that there are no “big names†or “big bats†coming back in this deal, and come August those same people will be talking about “the surprising Mariners†and how the team seems to be “playing above its head†or something. (These of course would be the same people who didn’t see the Rays 2008 season coming when they upgraded their defense from near-worst in the league the year before to among the best)
I was amused by Matthew Carruth’s analysis of the Indians’ side of the trade @ fangraphs:
Wait, those names sound familiar! Asdrubal Cabrera? “Intriguing at bats from Shin-Soo Choo�
Perhaps we should give Bavasi some credit for setting up this deal years in advance? Genius!
(Actually taking advantage of opportunities created by Bavasi’s stupidity is the real genius here, of course; usually a new GM makes the old one look better by being even worse, but Zduriencik seems to have turned old coal into diamonds in this case)
Is it ok to get an M’s uniform with the GM’s name on it?
While I’d say that’s a little premature (we’re all a little giddy because Zduriencik is the un-Bavasi – when you’ve been eating shit for a couple of years, even dirt tastes like ice cream) I totally applaud the idea. I’d love to see that, actually. And if Zduriencik pulls off a few more smart trades, I’ll consider doing it myself.
But what number would you use?
Zduriencik isn’t quite sure what some of the players are going to do yet. He’s not looking at these players as guys who are going to fill “rolesâ€
Wow, that’s a good point. I’d forgotten/suppressed the insane insistence on “roles†that had obsessed the team the past few years.
The DH will probably be a Griffey-like player.
Yikes, Dave dropped the G-bomb!
If the Mariners were to pick up Bradley and Furcal, how many games do you think we’d win?
What happens if Shelton ends up being the DH most of the time?
How about just a letter “Z” where the number should be?
While I still don’t think this is a very good team, it’s intriguing, and has possibilities, and is starting to look like something that will actually hold my interest even if they don’t tear up the league. Watching the M’s over the past few years, especially 2008, has been like watching “Gigli” over and over and over and over again — terrible, dull, and you’ve seen it so many times you’ve memorized the bad parts. Oh, look, Vidro grounded out again.
At least now we can say “well, that didn’t work, but he almost got it” when we lose, instead of “Jesus Effing Christ I can’t stand watching this garbage anymore”.
JI-
According to Fangraphs, Furcal is projected at about league average as a hitter (wRAA of -2.3 and 1.2 depending on James/Marcel). Yuni is projected at -19 (James) and -9 (Marcel). So he’s probably 10-15 runs better offensively. Yuni and Furcal put up very similar UZRs (UZR/150 to be specific) the last 3 years (though Furcal’s sample size last year was very limited):
Yuni Furcal
Year UZR/150 Innings UZR/150 Innings
2006 -0.5 1374.1 -8.1 1371.0
2007 -4.3 1302.1 0.3 1210.0
2008 -14.7 1325.1 -11.6 296
Career -5.9 4456.0 -3.7 9515.1
I know that Furcal is supposed to be a better fielder, but the numbers are not vastly different here. Let’s say Furcal is 0-5 runs better defensively.
That gives you about 15 runs of improvement by going from Yuni to Furcal or 1.5 wins.
As for Bradley, he’s wRAA is 17 (James) or 21.7 (Marcel). Let’s compare that to Griffey (who is likely about a 1 WAR DH that Dave is using above). Griffey’s projected at 3.1 (James) or -1.0 (Marcel) for wRAA. So Bradley is about a 15-20 run improvement or 1.5 to 2 wins.
So if the team were to go out and get Furcal and Bradley, you probably pick up around 3-3.5 wins over playing Yuni and a random DH (Griffey or comperable).
Thank you.
Though I think that seems a bit low unless you think Yuni is going to bounce back defensively.
Wow that’s a weak offense, even for the lowly M’s.
Has there ever been a stronger top three in the bullpen that Putz, Wagner and K-Rod. Wowza!
Still think we should have gotten a lot more for J.J.
I wanted to be conservative and just go straight with the projections and UZR/150 numbers as I am not a huge Yuni fan and wanted to keep my personal bias out of it.
I’d love to see the M’s get Furcal. I was thinking before the Rule 5 that with Furcal’s injury history Yuni would make a decent 2B/SS backup for Furcal and Jose (though I’m much more positive about Jose’s future than Dave and others). Now with the Reegie selection, adding Furcal would probably include trading away Yuni (or Jose if Dave gets his wish).
Any way someone would take Yuni for a Brad Nelson type hitter to play DH and back up first? Maybe the M’s can solve the SS and DH hole with a Furcal signing and a Yuni trade.
ML-
What’s “a lot more for JJ?” Considering the number of closers still available on the market and the going rate for relievers this off-season, getting what we got back for JJ was good for the team. The M’s got salary relief, young players under club control, and help and depth for the OF and minor league system. What more did you want for a very good (when healthy) reliever coming off an injury making a little (but not a lot) under a fair market salary for his position as well as a decent 4th OF (Reed) and a young 2B who is somewhere between replacement level and league average?
I just think we could have brokered a much better deal next year with a good first half from Putz given that the traditional pre-deadline rush for closers would improve the currently flooded closers market.
Of course we’d also run the risk that J.J. doesn’t bounce back and becomes even less appealing. However, it’s a risk I’d have taken, especially given the good chance that we’ll have to yank Morrow around yet again.
Heilman should bounce back from his 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP and Gutierrez could make an impact, although he bats from the wrong side. Chavez and Vargas are next to worthless…
Not that anyone likely missed me here, but I’ll be occasionally commenting again. I am very pleased with Mr. Z’s obvious intelligence in trying to get lemonade out of the damaged – and wax – lemons he was given to work with.
I don’t expect the moon,… right away. Just a team that believes it can win, does often win, and plays an entertaining game even when it doesn’t.
Go Mariners! Go Ichiro!
(It’s nice to be able to say ALL of that again.)
Not true, but you know what is next to worthless?
ERA and WHIP. Stop using them. They tell you nothing useful.
I’m convinced. M’s are going to win the West in ‘09, woot.
Let’s get Griffey to give us a hometown discount to DH, and pick up some rental players that can swing the bat before the trade deadline and do this thang.
Longtime reader, mostly lurker. But this post represents exactly the sort of insightful analysis that keeps me coming back. Great job as always Dave.
Mr. Z is off to a great start. Feeling timid excitement (tempered, of course, by the recent state of the M’s and of Seattle sports in general)…
Dodger fan here. FWIW, I’ve been following F-Gut since he was a wee prospect. He was always a five-tool tease and we gave him up before he matured. Since that time, he’s been hot and cold, but his upside remains very much in the Adams Jones realm (I thought of that even before I read Dave’s comment).
If I were an M’s fan, I’d be excited about him. He’s a freak on defense; his jumps and reads are scary good. He combines that with a strong and accurate arm. It’s no exaggeration to say he is an elite defender. As for offense, he definitely has pop and good plate coverage. His lack of selectivity has hindered his development, but he also hasn’t been given an opportunity like the M’s will give him. (When he came up to the Indians, they were in contention and couldn’t waste any at-bats).
I don’t think he’ll ever be the great player he ideally projected to, but he’s worth a gamble that he might be very good someday. Congrats on the trade and good luck in ‘09.
What’s Jim Edmonds cost us?
The more I think of this–this is no slight on JJ–I think the Met’s overspent for an 8th inning reliever.They just spent a king’s ransom on a closer. I don’t know if they needed JJ.
I hope Wash goes all 2002 again this year, and then some team gives him a ridiculous contract.
I’m convinced. M’s are going to win the West in ‘09, woot.
I’m heartened, too, but let’s not get carried away. The Angels are a very good team. And the A’s are getting better. Another offseason like this one is shaping up to be, though, and….
Let’s get Griffey to give us a hometown discount to DH
His hometown is now Orlando; the only discount he might be giving out is to the Rays. And I thought you wanted the M’s to have a shot at winning the West in ‘09? But what the hell: if everything else falls through, ok, 2009 is a lost year anyway so let’s get the guy on a one-year deal just so all the nostalgiaddicts will finally shut up. OK?
The more I think of this–this is no slight on JJ–I think the Met’s overspent for an 8th inning reliever.They just spent a king’s ransom on a closer. I don’t know if they needed JJ.
I have been coming to this conclusion as well — that the Mets are really overcompensating for their late-season chokes the past couple of years. If they hadn’t already spent the big bucks for K-Rod, this would be a good trade for them. But in the wake of that, it’s gilding the lily more than a little. Granted, they’re a big market team just about to move into a new stadium, so — even in the current economic climate — they can afford to overspend. But even Bavasi demonstrated you don’t have to dump big bucks into the bullpen. Paying major FA dollars and trading away a bunch of players and prospects just to get two innings of work in some of your games smacks of desperation. Obviously in that media environment Minaya had to do something or he’d be worried about his job. But this just seems like too much.
As a Phillies fan I am NOT happy with this trade, good as it is for the M’s!
I have nothing against the city of Philadelphia (though it now goes into the STFU pile atop Boston and a few other homes of formerly woebegone fanbases) but I have to say anything that makes Gillick’s life a little harder makes me smile. But having the reigning WS champions in their own division had to be weighing on the Mets too.
Griffey will not make the Mariners better in 2009.
Long time reader, first time poster…
A couple things. I think the Jim Edmonds idea would have been intriguing before this trade, since Gutierrez shores us up defensively (which Edmonds could have…trust me…wasn’t counting on an offensive resurgence). So now, it’d be unnecessary.
As for Griffey, I don’t why no one thinks he could do well in the DH role. Remember a guy named Edgar? Remember how he was getting hurt all the time, so they moved him to DH? Oh yeah, only the best DH ever! Now I’m not saying Junior’s gonna come out of nowhere to return to his .300-40-120 days (and I’m also not saying he’ll be Edgar reincarnate), but I think, given the chance to stay healthy as a DH, .285-25-90 isn’t a stretch, if not even slightly better. Plus, what real M’s fan wouldn’t love to see The Kid return and go out as a Seattle Mariner?
Lastly, I’m sure I’ll take some heat over the name, as I’m sure I’ll be more regularly contributing, but yes I liked Bobby Ayala. Deal with it.
Thanks!
Aaron M./BobbyAyalaFan4Life
Didn’t we get a former Mets exec for our amateur scouting director? Fausto or something like that? we probably have a good feel for the Mets minor league system. Perhaps we have a few diamonds in th rough coming
How much money does Zduriencik have left to play with? Can the M’s be players in some of the high profile bats still out there? Manny as DH? Texiera crazyiness?
Is there some reason, at this point, one wouldn’t DH Wlad and put Chavez in left?
If we had to open the season with this roster, you’d probably be looking to put Kenji behind the plate and Clement at DH, with Wlad in LF; of course, we don’t, and much can change between now and April.
As the OF goes, right now, I’m thinking we’re looking at a complex platoon in LF/CF, with Chavez playing LF when we have a pitch-to-flyball guy on the mound and CF for Gootz against tough RHP. (In cases where both are true, obviously, you pick one or the other, depending on how much you trust Wlad’s glove.)
Only that we could do better, at both positions, than Wlad and Chavez. I don’t think Endy has the bat to hold down the job, and Wlad’s value is also hurt by taking him out of the field. Given that Wlad is a RH pull hitter, and still learning, his offense isn’t ideal at the DH. I think giving Griffey (or someone similar, though no names come to mind) a one-year contract to DH, keep Wlad in LF, and work Endy as a fourth outfielder would be a more effective arrangement all around.
A few buy-low opportunities to fill the vacancy in LF for those who don’t like the thought of a Wlad/Chavez platoon out there. I’m probably forgetting a positions adjustment on my calculations, and if so I apologize. But even if I am, these guys represent a good potential value relative to their cost.
(1) Matt Diaz, Braves – UZR/150 of 17.2 in 2006 and 18.8 in 2007, and he was +12 plus/minus both seasons. I thought he would be a terrible defender until I looked it up because I thought I read that about him somewhere. Not so much.
Offensively, he hits lots of hard line drives. Most people seem to think of him as a platoon guy who doesn’t hit righties enough to justify a full-time gig, but I’m not so sure. Small sample size alert and all, but in 2006 he hit .358/.400/.477 against righties and in 2007 he hit .318/.350/.406. He isn’t a power hitter by any means and his numbers were inflated some by BABIPs of .373 in 2006 and .385 in 2007, but he also hits lots of hard line drives and is probably one of those guys that can be expected to sustain consistently high BABIPs.
Last year he started slow and then blew out his knee, but he should be healthy in 2009 and might come cheap since he seems to have fallen out of favor in Atlanta and is arbitration eligible. wOBA of .354 and .373 in 2006 and 2007 before last year’s injury problems. Bill James (.354) and Marcel (.334) expect some rebound in 2009, and I think .350 is a better number if he is fully healthy. .350 wOBA over 525 PA makes him about +8 runs offensively.
His skill set (plus defense, plus contact, minus power skills) is under-appreciated by almost everyone for a corner outfielder. The fact that his OBP is built on hard contact, rather than walks is also under-appreciated in stat and scout communities. Might be worth seeing if he could be taken from the Braves for a song-and-dance since he is arbitration eligible and they seem down on him.
Upside: +5 offense, +10 defense, +20 replacement level: +3.5 wins
Again, I really think he could be had fairly cheaply. The Braves never seemed very enamored with him and only begrudgingly made him a full-timer last year (when he crashed, burned, then hurt his knee).
(2) Luke Scott, Orioles – I am an Astros/Mariners fan and was pissed when he was thrown into the Tejada trade. I repeatedly read about how the Astros’ front office didn’t like his defense. Career 9.9 UZR/150 in LF and 9.0 in RF. He scores similarly on plus/minus.
Career wOBA of .361 makes him +14 runs offensively over 550 PA. He’s a lot stronger against RHP, but he is not so horrendous against LHP (.236/.340/.421) that a platoonmate is needed every single time a LHP is on the mound.
Upside: +12 offense, +8 defense, +20 replacement level: +4 wins.
The Orioles probably like Scott well enough, but if anyone values him as a +4 win player, I’d be surprised. I think he could be had for much less, particularly if a Teixeira signing pushes Huff off 1B.
(3) Matt Murton, A’s – this guy pissed off the baseball gods somehow. Career UZR/150 of 11.3 in LF and career .345 wOBA. Another guys that should be +3 wins or so utilized on an everyday basis.
(4) Austin Kearns, Nats – basically a RF version of Murton who has a hefty salary. Career 8.1 UZR/150 in RF and career .345 wOBA makes him a +2.5 win guy. Coming off an injury lowers his price and the Nats might give him up in a salary dump with such a crowded OF. Or maybe swap bad salaries and ship Batista for Kearns.
I think the M’s would be smart to make inquiries on all 4. All 4 could improve the 2009 team by a couple wins while costing much less. I would be surprised if all 4 of these guys are properly valued by their teams and at least one of them should be availble cheap. My personal favorite is Diaz since I really think the Braves are down on him, especially with his injury and being arbitration-eligible.
Not that it really means anything, but it’s nice to see the M’s show up as “Winners” for a change on the ratings of the baseball trades:
SI “Winners and Losers in Las Vegas”