Ibanez to Philly
The Phillies gave Raul Ibanez a 3 year, $30 million deal to replace Pat Burrell today. It was pretty much a lock that the team that signed Ibanez was going to be an old-school type, but honestly, I’m a bit surprised that Philly was dumb enough to make this move. With guys like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz, it was clear that they knew a good defensive player when they saw one. I guess they just feel that it’s totally fine to have a lumbering oaf running around left field. They’ll regret this contract by July, though.
For the M’s, this means they get the 28th pick in the 1st round and a compensatory pick that will be somewhere in the 37-42 range, depending on whether some of these other Type A free agents change teams or not. Their second round pick should be in the 46-50 range, so right now, the M’s have the 2nd, 28th, ~39th, and ~48th picks in the draft next summer. If they don’t sign Josh Fields, you can add the 21st pick to that list, and then shove everything else back a pick.
That’s Gillick for you, I’m sure of it . . .
Not happy as a Phillies fan. We go from Burrell lumbering around the OF and pulled in the late innings of every game to just as bad a fielder, 5 years older, and left-handed when we’re already over-reliant on lefties who can’t hit lefties.
And this definitely looks like Gillick pulling the strings for Amaro, or perhaps Amaro is as bad a GM choice as I’d feared.
Goodbye and good luck with the Phillies, Raul.
The picks are sweet and I couldn’t stand his defense, but I will miss Raul the hitter and man.
His bat did produce more than almost everybody expected together with a modest salary, and I respect the man for his work ethic and preparations off the field.
How exactly is the draft order decided? The Phils had the 5th best record in baseball last season so I assumed they would have the 26th pick.
Should the Ms sign Fields or take a redo? I vote redo.
He’s tempting as a short term option with the holes in the pen, and he was awesome in the CWS, but I’ve gotta say redo as well. Relievers are everywhere. Fields would be a success if he became George Sherill, and he sure as hell didn’t cost us a 1st round pick.
Glad to see him go from a defensive POV…I was just soooooo hoping that he’d go to the Cubs, so that I could laugh at my girlfriend for all the times she laughed at me when I’d be screaming at Raul through the TV…oh well…
Now that Burrell is 100% NOT going back to Philly, would he be a decent DH option? Just asking…
Merry Christmas to me! This makes me feel all warm and nice inside. No more Ibanez in left field will make the team more watchable for me, for sure.
Dave,
it’s slightly off-topic…but [deleted, not slightly off-topic]
I’m very surprised to see Raul go to a NL team. I always liked the guy so I wish him well.
Whether they sign Fields or throw him back, I’m okay with it either way. He could probably be in the M’s bullpen fairly quickly and has the potential to be a future closer, but this team has bigger holes to fill if Z decides he wants to draft someone else.
I find the idea of Zduriencik armed with high draft picks exciting. Seeing who is actually chosen will be quite insightful into the philosophy of this regime.
but think how useful Raul will be during those interleague games!
The compensation draft pick is a first round pick if the team that signs the free agent finished in the top half of major league teams and in the second round if the signing team is in the bottom half of MLB teams. So, we get the Phil’s 26th overall pick and a sandwich round pick that occurs before the second round and after the first. However, that’s a lot better than we would have gotten if Royals (for example) had signed him.
so, 2nd pick, ~20th pick if they don’t sign Fields, the Phillies’ 26th pick and then another after the 1st round ends …
does the loss of Raul mean that we have to start the G*****y watch again?
How do you guys think Raul will do offensively in the NL? As much as I’ll miss being able to bellow out “Raaaauuuuuuuuuuuuuul” at Safeco, I have to think his offensive production will drop some in the pitcher-happy NL East (and NL for that matter).
Your guys’ thoughts?
Also, as far as Fields goes, I too vote redo…might as well let Z make the calls now! He seems to be on the right track so far!
Lastly, on things I’ll miss at Safeco this year, as much as I like this move, it does sadden me that I’ll never be able to hear “THUNDER! (aahahahhhahaaaaaahaaa)” blaring out of the loudspeakers. Talk about a good song to clinch a win to!
Aaron M./BobbyAyalaFan4Life
I think this is the logic of “roles” rearing it’s ugly head. Teams believe that you need some guys to be offense and some guys to be defense. And then the logic of roles tells us: if the guys playing the “offense” role can field, bonus, but it’s not important; similarly, if your guys playing defense for you can hit, bonus, but it’s not important.
Ibanez is being hired to hit, so whether he can field doesn’t matter. It’s dumb. (Bear in mind that the Phillies are under new managment, so their track record of valuing defense isn’t much of an indicator of future behavior.)
How exactly is the draft order decided? The Phils had the 5th best record in baseball last season so I assumed they would have the 26th pick.
From what I can tell:
We would get the 26th pick had everyone signed with the teams that drafted them last year. But the Nationals get an extra pick at No. 10 because they didn’t sign Aaron Crow. So that would push us back a slot to No. 27. Jim Callis has us at No. 28, but that’s only if we don’t sign Fields.
I dunno, I think it’ll be pretty valuable for us to have Fields aboard. I mean even if he doesn’t close next year, he could be a nice cheap closer for years to come that we could turn around and flip for prospects when he gets too expensive.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t want him on the team next year either, I mean it worked out well with Morrow, plus it seemed like the main consensus about the pick of Fields last year was “Why draft a reliever when we have JJ and Morrow in the pen?” Well, we don’t now, and he’d be nice to have.
I understand that relievers are pretty easy to find, but dominant closers aren’t, and the basic consensus around the scouting community is that Fields has filthy stuff, and the mentality to close. Which not every reliever has.
I dunno… back when we had JJ as our closer and Brandon not in the rotation I was all for a do over, but Fields’ value has definitely increased for this team and we have an undeniable void in the pen, especially when it comes to a dominant strikeout type of pitcher. I say sign him.
Here’s the actual draft order, assuming Fields doesn’t sign. Our supplemental pick (currently 41) and our 2nd rounder (currently 57) could move up if some of these free agents re-sign with their original teams.
1 WAS
2 SEA
3 SD
4 PIT
5 BAL
6 SF
7 ATL
8 CIN
9 DET
10 WAS
11 COL
12 KC
13 OAK
14 TEX
15 CLE
16 ARI
17 LAD
18 FLA
19 STL
20 TOR
21 SEA
22 HOU
23 MIN
24 CWS
25 LAA from NYM for Rodgriguez
26 MIL From NYY for Sabathia
27 MIL
28 SEA from PHI for Ibanez
29 NYY
30 BOS
31 TB
32 CHC
33 LAA
34 LAA Teixeira A 98.889
35 MIL for losing Sabathia A 98.110
36 LAD M. Ramirez A 93.438
37 TOR Burnett A 89.729
38 LAA for losing F. Rodriguez A 87.196
39 COL Fuentes A 86.694
40 CWS Cabrera A 86.000
41 SEA for losing Ibanez A 83.684
42 ARI Hudson A 79.911
43 MIL Sheets A 79.038
44 NYM Perez A 78.694
45 ARI Cruz A 76.627
46 BOS Varitek A 76.037
47 LAD Lowe A 75.430
48 TEX Bradley B 70.909
49 LAA Garland B 66.473
50 MIL Shouse B 65.451
51 BOS Byrd B 64.922
52 ARI Lyon B 63.729
53 CIN for losing Affeldt B 63.000
54 KC Grudzielanek B 62.733
55 MIN Reyes B 57.480
56 WAS
57 SEA
No, it’s actually 21. The Nats get a comp pick, which pushes everything down, but we still get the pick after 20. I know it’s kind of weird and it essentially just screws the Astros, but Callis checked with MLB when he put up that updated draft order and that’s correct.
My goodness, that’s a shocker of a contract. This year’s Carlos Silva deal?
Oops, I forgot PIT locked in there at 49 for failing to sign Scheppers.
somewhere in our hearts, wsb, we’ll try to find a way to forgive you for such egregious negligence.
Nice work.
Another thought about Fields. Think about it, we can either blow 10 to 15 million a year on a closer when we do decide we want to contend, or we can spend 1.5 million now and already have one either established or developing in to one.
So what are the odds that Fields signs? I haven’t heard a word about him since the draft.
Can Z just say screw it, pull any contract offers, and have a do-over this year?
Zduriencik says he has talked with Boras in general about Fields (nothing contractual); as I understand it he can break off discussions anytime he wants– the kid has until June to sign, so there is no real hurry unless they decide they want him in the bullpen this spring.
Those aren’t the only two options. Heilman might develop into a good closer. So might any number of other pitchers in the system with live arms. I’m not saying I disagree with you… signing Fields might make sense, if the price is right and the do-over does not look good.
Fields has never thrown a pitch in professional baseball. Let’s not deem him a dominant reliever just yet.
When the time comes that we need a closer, I don’t think we’ll need to spend $10 or $15 million a year on one. We appear to have a pretty keen eye for talent running our baseball operations nowadays.
Best wishes to the Face of the Franchise. Ibanez should have remained the full time DH (silly M’s, you switch a player from OF to DH as he ages, not the other way around), but for his salary, he would have been a fine DH. He deserves some admiration for no matter how bad the team was playing or how dysfunctional the clubhouse became, he would still give the post-game interviews and calmly answer stupid question after stupid question from the FSN crew.
So what happens to the giant banner at Safeco? Does Raul get it as a parting gift?
Those aren’t the only two options. Heilman might develop into a good closer. So might any number of other pitchers in the system with live arms. I’m not saying I disagree with you… signing Fields might make sense, if the price is right and the do-over does not look good
Ok, Heilman sucked in the closers role last year with new york, and even if he did do well he’s only signed through next year, so what do you do after that? As for the other “live arms” we have in our system, who do you think we have in the minors that looks like a future closer? I’m just sayin, every team in baseball has plenty of live arms, but it takes a lot more than that to close.
As much as people like to act like anybody with good stuff can do it, it’s just not that simple, and it’s proven time and time again. Fields has been a closer everywhere he’s pitched. He’s got the mentality and stuff to close, and that’s why he was drafted so high. Tons of guys can pitch the middle innings, but the 9th is a different animal.
And yes, fields hasn’t thrown a pitch in the minors, but he was dominant in college, and that does say something. I think if someone said Strasburg is a dominant pitcher you wouldn’t disagree with them, atleast I wouldn’t.
We also do have a pretty keen eye running our baseball team, but that doesn’t mean Zduriencik isn’t going to have to spend money on positions of need on proven players who know how to do their jobs well when we decide we are ready to contend.
Wow, the Phillies? Ibanez should be a DH. I’d expect some AL team to sign him so that even if they dont use him as DH now, it can be their backup plan.
I think the phillies are taking the approach that most balls hit to left in their stadium leave the ballpark, so outfield defense doesn’t matter that much.
Although Ibanez was a good hitter and a player of “character”, he was also a selfish player. He played hurt in 2007 where it hurt the team because he did not want to relinguish his position as someone like A Jones may have claimed it. He is going to a NL team so he will not have to DH. This really hurts his team. So I say good bye and good luck Philly.
As for the other “live arms†we have in our system, who do you think we have in the minors that looks like a future closer?
One of the failed starters, like Putz? It’s not all that tough to find someone with two good pitches who can throw one inning.
This isn’t a no-brainer or anything, and I understand what you’re saying. My opinion, though, is that the 21st pick in the draft is worth more to the franchise than a solid bullpen arm. If it were just a money thing, I’d say yes, sign him.
I always thought the “Ibanez is a nice guy” thing was overstated, personally.
Still, I hope he does well in Philly.
I had hoped that the old-school club that signed Ibanez wouldn’t have been so good so we could have had a better pick, but I’ll take it.
He’s not just a “solid” bullpen arm though, he’s a guy who could possibly become a dominant closer, and guys like that don’t come along that often.
Fontaine drafted him for a reason, and athough there were a lot of problems with this team the past few years, drafting tended to not be one of them.
I’m just saying, a lot of closers tend to be failed starters who tend to figure it out when switched to relief, but a lot of luck tends to come in to the equation with something like that, and in our organization I don’t even see a guy who is a starter now who could be a good closer in the future.
Sure, it’s easy to just say “one” of our starters, but who? I’d like to hear some legit names and hear how you think they could become a good closer. Why cross your fingers and hope one of the guys in the minors figures it out as a reliever and maybe becomes a closer when you could sign a guy right now and have the problem solved?
If Fields turns out to suck and never becomes a closer, then I’ll eat my words, but to become an elite closer you usually have to have atleast one dominant pitch, or two really good ones. Fields’ Fastball, Curveball combo is unrivaled in our minors.
Good analysis of this over at fangraphs (written before the trade was announced).
TF: wrong. Just to pick one thing, Heilman wasn’t closing in NY last year (and, per Dave’s analysis on Fangraphs, his problems arose from his trying to re-establish his slider as part of his campaign to get the Mets to move him back to the rotation).
Also, you’re pronouncing a lot of things about Fields that simply are not proven. He hasn’t pitched a single inning of pro ball yet, and he’d be far from the first college hotshot to hit the pros and faceplant. (The first name that comes to mind — probably because he was another college reliever — is Royce Ring. There are many others.)
And one other thing: no, it’s not “anyone with good stuff”; “stuff” isn’t the point. The point, rather, is that it’s easier to succeed as a reliever because removing the need to pace oneself for 6-7 innings effectively improves one’s stuff. (It’s also about the fact that there’s nothing magic about pitching the 9th inning with a 3-run lead and nobody on, but that’s another discussion.)
I’ve been saying for years that the NL should adopt the DH, not keep pushing the AL to drop it. The Phillies would never have had to trade Thome if they had a DH. The Giants could have accommodated Bonds’s last few years with a DH. The Dodgers would have a far better situation re-signing Manny with a DH. And now the Phillies would have a place for Raul with a DH. Instead, so many of the NL teams have a DH in left or on first, often with a better LF or 1B sitting on the bench (Colorado is the archetype here). Plus it makes them overrate their pitchers because they are facing such weaker lineups.
I’m happy for Raul. I imagine Greg Dobbs is less happy, since him playing left (and he couldn’t be worse than Raul there) is now out of the question.
The mets did try and use Heilman as a closer after Billy Wagner went down actually, he was the first guy they tried out in that role, and he sucked, like I said.
And one other thing: no, it’s not “anyone with good stuffâ€; “stuff†isn’t the point. The point, rather, is that it’s easier to succeed as a reliever because removing the need to pace oneself for 6-7 innings effectively improves one’s stuff. (It’s also about the fact that there’s nothing magic about pitching the 9th inning with a 3-run lead and nobody on, but that’s another discussion.)
Royce Ring was always a loogy candidate, and he didn’t have any dominat pitches. There IS something special about pitching the 9th with the middle of the order coming up with a 1 run lead. Not everybody can close, I don’t think I really need to argue this point, because it’s been proven many many times before. The save statistic is somewhat overrated, but when the M’s were up by 1 run the past few years, I know every mariner fan was way happier to have JJ pitching out there than Miguel Batista.
TF will be calling you all ignorant within about two hours, by the way. Just a heads up.
Oh, and TF, who? Try Aaron Heilman, if they can coach him into it. At this point, I’d say his fastball/change combo (the change, according to Keith Law, “has a splitter-like tumble and is a potential out pitch if he gets his head on straight”) is a better one than Fields’ fastball/curve, not least because he’s actually proven he can get professional hitters out with it.
The fact is, there’s something special about pitching with a one-run lead and the middle of the order coming up at any time. Go look at the list of successful closers and see how many of them have been failed starters . . . it’s a long list. See how many have been college closers . . . it’s a much shorter list.
What in the world does a closer discussion have to do with Ibanez signing with Philly, anyway?
In regards to Fields, I don’t think the team even needs to make a decision until they get a better sense of the next draft. They have lots of time to weigh the depth of the draft and then determine if Fields is the 21st best talent or if there is someone ahead of him. I don’t think it is as clear cut as just assuming that any person we could draft next year is more valuable in that slot than Fields simply because he is a reliever.
One of the things I respect about Z, is that he wants talent regardless of the role. It may be possible that in a thin draft class, Fields turns out to be the 21st best talent with a higher probablility of being more valuable to this team than what is available in the draft. This seems to me like a position of strength if we wait, since we will be able to choose between the talent available and the talent we have already drafted.
TAM, In regards to Heilman, as I said earlier, he’s signed through next year. I’m saying we could sign Fields now, so he could develop in to a good closer and by the time we’re ready to contend we already have a strong in house candidate to close for this team, rather than having to blow millions of dollars on one.
It’s a hole on this team, now and in the future, and good teams have good closers. If we could have a good one for the next 7 years or so for 1.5 million instead of 10 to 15 million like every other good closer out there then why not do it? It’s a low risk move, and Fields was drafted so high because the consensus was that he’s close to the majors and basically can’t miss.
Sure, it’s easy to just say “one†of our starters, but who? I’d like to hear some legit names and hear how you think they could become a good closer.
Teams don’t really have “closers in the making” in the minors. If you have two pitches, can get guys out, and the team thinks you’d make a good reliever, you’ll be on the 25-man roster pretty soon.
What in the world does a closer discussion have to do with Ibanez signing with Philly, anyway?
Dave mentioned Fields in the post! . . . I know, I know, I’ll stop now.
As far as the closer position in general goes, that’s one where I have to side with Bill James, especially after K-Rod last year. 62 saves is quite an accomplishment. But 36 of those saves were games in which the Angels won by two or more (and handful were four run games). I’m not saying he’s not a dominant reliever. But the Angels’ offense should get more credit for the bulk of those saves than K-Rod.
I like James’ idea that the best releiver should be used in the optimal situation, rather than waiting for the final three outs. If you’re facing a team’s 3-4-5 in the 8th up by 1, then bring in your best bullpen arm then, not in the 9th against the 6-7-8 or worse. I’m no fan of closer by commitee, I just wish more managers were open to using releivers, and closer in particular, more versatilely.
Aaron M.
I can agree with James to a point, but I definitely am a believer that the last 3 outs are the toughest to get, no matter who’s up in the lineup.
You can believe in whatever you want. You’re wrong, though.
Ichiro’s still here…
Turd, I for one would like to see you provide a list of guys who were drafted out of college as closers who became dominant big league closers. There’s a reason most people thought this was a bad choice when it was made, and it’s not just because relievers aren’t all that valuable.
If you could say with any degree of certainty that Fields would be a useful MLB reliever (even if that’s not in the closer role) then I think you’d have an argument. However, I don’t think that’s a case you can legitimately make.
The other thing is the “closer mentality.” Just to use JJ as an example, this is a guy who basically never closed until 2006, and yet he did ok when forced to take it on…because he had really good stuff. Sure, there are some guys with great stuff who maybe can’t handle the pressure, but they’re the same guys who can’t hack it as late innings relievers who come in with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth, not some subset of great set-up guys.
While we’re on the closer subject though, does anyone know if Z or Wakamatsu have let anything slip about plans for Morrow? Obviously I assume this would be Wakamatsu’s call ultimately. It’d be a shame to see him thrust back into the pen. He could develop into a very solid No. 2/3 starter at Safeco.
Aaron M.
Since my not-so-subtle hint didn’t work, and I don’t feel like deleting half the comment thread:
Like Dave said, you’re wrong. It’s the leverage of the situation that matters, not the inning. Sure, a fair number of high-leverage situations happen in the 9th inning, but the same can be said for pretty much anything after the 6th.
The only reason that the team’s best reliever is generally reserved for the 9th inning is because of the save statistic. If that statistic didn’t exist, we wouldn’t see relief aces used in the way that they are, because it’s sub-optimal from a “winning baseball games” standpoint.
This is a new organization, with a new way of running things. We can already see, based on the moves he’s made to date, that Zduriencik is able to recognize talent and how to optimize it.
There’s no reason to continue to worry about the stupid things they might do, in the context of a much smarter organization than we had at the end of last year.
Speaking of Raul Ibanez…
(cough, cough)
I do love (in a self-aware, ironic sort of way) how in two successive posts Raul Ibanez’s willingness to play through pain is described as selfish…and then Raul’s being described as a nice guy is thought to be “overstated.”
I understand both chris d and Jeff Nye’s points and I’m not trying to argue them…as they have their merits.
But, they do read as being VERY Seattle-y, in that sometimes we get annoyed by some very odd things…things that might not annoy other people elsewhere.
My take on Raul the Mariner (Pt. II) was that the guy did the best he could do with what he was given to do, that he did so while maintaining an even, positive tone despite the dark clouds hovering around.
He was an odd person to have generated such loyal and boisterous fan reactions–as his success was never flashy–workmanlike is the word I’d choose–and his frustrating failures were painfully and glaringly apparent far too often.
I’d like to think that a stronger personality–manager or general manager–who was truly in charge of this team would have recognized his weakness in the field and been strong enough to make it very clear that to Raul that his best (and, definitely, his ASSIGNED) way to help this team would be to make the most of his at bats as a DH…and I’d like to think that he could have been motivated by that strong personality to have done just that–but we’ll never really know how that would have played out.
So, as it is, while I’ll miss Raul as a casual fan who likes to LIKE who he’s cheering for…the more serious fan in me is fine with him being a member of the Phillies now, as he certainly wasn’t going to be OUR answer in LF.
…and honestly, I’m looking forward to all the hugging that my wife will need as her favorite Mariner is now no longer one…
Silly Conor, Ichiro is the Franchise.
If Jeff Clement can stick, I bet he eventually takes over as the go-to player for public relations purposes (which Ibanez essentially took over from Dan Wilson).
So Raul was Ichiro’s face?
Thanks Jeff! I could use some quality reassurances after the last few seasons!
I guess I still have a Pavlonian-esque response mechanism to M’s moves! I should sue Bavasi for mental anguish and ongoing M’s anxiety!
Just kidding…kind of.
Aaron M.
Drafting a reliever with your #1 pick just seems wrong to me. I don’t care how big of a stud reliever he is; it strikes me as the football equivalent of drafting a place kicker with your #1 pick. Sure when the game is down to the final 2 seconds, you’re down by 1 and looking at a 62yrd FG attempt XYZ stud kicker probably will warm your heart more than league average kicker; but if you had XYZ stud safety, QB, LB, RB, WR, etc you probably wouldn’t have been in this position in the first place!
The same seems to be true for Baseball. I’d rather pick up about any other position that has the potential to be a stud with my #1 pick than reliever; because they are going to have the chance to make that much more of an impact.
Glad Raul is moving on, though I’m sure we’ll miss his bat next year. (Along with the occasional palm-forehead slapping outfield moments that you laugh about later to avoid crying.)
Speaking of the face of the franchise, has anyone been by Safeco today? When A-Rod signed the Contract to End All Contracts, his poster at Safeco was gone the next day. I think the same was true when Jamie was traded.
Is Raul still up there?
Since Z has made a career out of talent evaluation I’ll trust his judgment on the Fields vs 21st pick conundrum. My gut feeling is that he’s going to sign Fields.
2nd, 28th, ~39th, and ~48th picks in the draft next summer. If they don’t sign Josh Fields, you can add the 21st pick to that list, and then shove everything else back a pick.
Wow, 5 players in the top 50 in the 2009 draft? That’s sure a way to recharge your minor league system pretty fast- and we still have Truinfel, Halman, Aumont, etc.
Anyway, if we MUST have a “proven closer”, Miguel Batista seems a better bet than someone with zero innings of pro ball. (It seems using him there is one of the logical ways to clear out the logjam in the rotation, and he did OK in Toronto- no great shakes, but he wasn’t a disaster.)
I don’t know about the poster, but Vidro’s mug is still planted on the metal siding of the team shop.
most likely nobody will recognise him.
And a lot of people believe the world was created in six days, but the facts don’t agree with them.
I think you need a little empirical support before going any further…
The question of Fields (though fun to discuss) doesn’t need to be answered for a long time. I would like to know what Z thinks of Morrow. How many pitches does he really have anyway? My guess is that Z is going to dangle some of our SPs @ Milwaukee and if Shields is signed elsewhere,it could get interesting.
Ok Dave, and everyone else. I guess all you guys are baseball geniuses and EVERY manager in baseball is an idiot for putting an emphasis on getting the last 3 outs with their best relievers.
I guess that’s why they’re getting paid millions of dollars to be managers and you and Bill James aren’t even part of major league organizations and you sit here on your computer pretending like you’re smarter than everyone else… Good for you.
Every manager doesn’t do that.
Also, Bill James is part of the Cardinals organization.
And you forgot “living in parents’ basement”
Name one that doesn’t. And I mean in a position that actually influences things. Don’t get me wrong, I tend to like a lot of the insight on this site, I just find that a lot of people on here are single minded and feel that the way that they interpret the game and think things should be done is the only way, and they make everyone else feel stupid for differing from that.
That’s why a guy like Zduriencik creates a team of people on his staff that look at stats and sabermetrics, but also has old time scouting guys that look at traditional scouting and intangibles and things like that. I respect Zduriencik much more than anybody that regularly comments on here, because he actually realises that there’s not just one way to look at things when it comes to baseball and he tries to view things from every angle possible unlike a lot of people on here. I’m sure that’s why he’s in the position he’s in and that’s why Dave’s in the position he’s in. That’s all I’m sayin, and that’s all I’m gonna say. I’m done commenting on here, and I’m sure that’ll make all your delicate ego’s happy. Peace.
First off, not every manager in baseball does this. Look at Tampa Bay’s use of Grant Balfour thoughout last postseason. For most team’s he’d be a no-brainer at closer. Also, closers by commitee are often created when a team’s best pitcher isn’t in that role because a lesser arm is. But just because something is convention doesn’t mean it should be or is the best way. Look at how ERA and WHIP used to be viewed. For a long time, they were the statistical benchmarks for determining a player’s value. Now, they’re an afterthough to a bevy of different statistical breakdowns and analysis.
Aaron M.
So to name names, Joe Maddon for one.
Aaron M.
You’re awfully sure about something you know nothing about.
Why would go to the trouble of offering counter-examples if you’re going to take your ball home anyway?
I do have to agree with you that looking at things only one way is problematic however. All I’m trying to say is only looking at situations conventionally is the same thing that you’re accusing many on this message board of doing, just from a 180-degree perspective difference.
Aaron M.
Maddon only did that because Percival wasn’t healthy, so it was by default, doesn’t count.
Jim Leyland, old-school manager, did this, using Zumaya to put out fires and sticking his “proven closer” in for the ninth even though Zumaya was clearly the most effective reliever on his staff.
I thought you were done commenting on here, thus making our “delicate ego’s” happy.
While the M’s have a lot of high picks in this year’s draft, some of the draft analysis suggests that this is not a great class. There is a pretty wide concensus that the M’s lost out when they finished with the second worst record vice the worst. Strasburg will amost certainly go first to the Nats and he appears, at this early juncture, to be a significantly better prospect than the rest of the 2009 class.
Zduriencik’s talent-assessment skills may not be as big of an advantage (or disadvantage if he turns out not to have any skills) this year since the HS class is relatively thin compared to the College class and past HS classes. HS players have less history against top opposition, which makes them harder to assess, but provides more opportunity to showcase scouting abilities.
Maybe the grey day is getting me down, but I’m worried that a large number of picks in this draft isn’t as great as it may be in other years.
In Cleveland’s 2007 season, Wedge usually used his worst reliever in the ninth inning.
My delicate ego is quite bruised, actually.
Luckily I have a bunch of liniment stored in my parents’ basement, where I live.
There, there, Jeff. It’ll all be okay.
“Maddon only did that because Percival wasn’t healthy, so it was by default, doesn’t count.”
I was talking about NOT using Balfour as a closer. Percival’s stuff at this point is no match for the younger, stronger Balfour.
See below, from an SI article in Oct.
“By virtually any measure, the best relief pitcher that Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey have at their disposal is Grant Balfour, the hard-throwing Australian right-hander who has finally managed to harness his considerable gifts at the age of 30. Tampa Bay had cut Balfour during spring training, and he began the season with Triple-A Durham — an indignity that inspired him, says Hickey. “He was a little bit ticked off about that,” Hickey explains. “He went down there and performed. When I say performed, it was absolutely cartoonish down there. He pitched 23 2/3 innings, gave up 5 hits and struck out 39. You couldn’t take CC Sabathia and put him back in A-ball and have him put up those numbers.”
After the Rays recalled Balfour in late May, he continued to put up statistics that suggested Porky Pig ought to appear on the JumboTron whenever he was done with an outing. Over the course of 51 regular-season outings, and 58 1/3 innings, Balfour struck out 82 batters (his 12.65 strikeouts per nine innings was the best ratio among pitchers who threw more than 40 innings) and he compiled a 1.54 ERA. Most managers — such as the Angels’ Mike Scioscia, who during the regular season never once called on his finest reliever, Francisco Rodriguez, before the ninth inning — would have immediately installed Balfour as a closer, and thought little of it, particularly when the man who officially held the role for the Rays, 38-year-old Troy Percival, was as inconsistent and injury-plagued as Percival was this season. Not Maddon.
Instead, Maddon decided to use Balfour as a “relief ace” — a reliever who is to be called upon when his skills are most desperately needed, no matter the inning.”
Also, it’s convenient that things “don’t count” when they contradict your point of view, yet are factual.
Aaron M.
The toughest outs to get are hitters with the highest OBP. That’s almost a tautology.
Willie Bloomquist is an easy out. Ichiro is a tough out. I wouldn’t take Willie’s entire life of ninth inning performance for any given inning’s worth of Ichiro’s performance.
Willie is 254/328/297 in the 9th inning lifetime.
Ichiro is 303/371/391. Easily his worst performing inning.
Dave (or Derek or Conor or whomever chooses to reply for him),
Something troubles me about Dave’s original post. And in raising this, maybe I’m making something out of nothing…which I’m sure you’ll be willing to verify if that’s the case.
Here’s my take:
1- The highest value of this site is to use reason over emotion or ‘conventional wisdom’ or ‘baseball knowledge’ or however you choose to describe it
2- That same approach, although not quantifiable, also seems like it should apply to semantics as well as statistics; that’s what this site it about
3- therefore, when Dave describes Raul as ‘a lumbering oaf’, this seems to be emotionally charged and decidedly different than a ‘grossly deficient outfielder’, or something more descriptive in this vein.
4- the term ‘oaf’, itself, is described thusly:
1. a clumsy, stupid person; lout.
2. a simpleton; dunce; blockhead.
3. a deformed or mentally deficient child.
Is this is what was meant to be said? I doubt it…but the lingering impression is that the disdain for Raul is not statistical, but on some level personal.
Would be interested in any reaction.
I’m not going to speak for Dave, but I would note that describing Raúl afield as a lumbering, clumsy, blockheaded fielder is, relative to MLB standards, fair; and that would be fairly summarized as “a lumbering oaf.”
Ancient,
You’re one of the smartest posters here…so I’m guessing you’d agree that words like ‘blockheaded’ (i.e., not very smart) or oaf (‘simpleton’), may not be the most accurate descriptors.
The distinction I’m trying to make is that Raul is on one hand not very proficient as a fielder (granted) but at the same time that may not be because he’s not smart enough to play the position, or doesn’t try hard enough.
From what I saw, I think the guy deserves credit for trying…and in many cases, very hard.
But as I indicated earlier, that may not have been Dave’s intent at all.
Just jumping in to say that I haven’t seen it mentioned yet that Rob Neyer quoted a big chunk of Dave’s post in his column today (as well as a Phillies’ blogger who agrees).
For my part, certainly, I’m not saying Raúl is in any general sense a blockhead, and there’s no question he’s a hard, hard worker. That doesn’t change the fact that his decision-making in the field is quite poor, and not all that intelligent. I’m not saying I personally would have described him as a lumbering oaf (though I am the guy who said that watching Glenallen Hill play the outfield was like watching a squirrel trying to cross a freeway, so I can’t say for sure), just that it doesn’t necessarily indicate personal disdain. (And from the context, as far as I can tell, it doesn’t.)
Three years.
Thirty million.
Just… wow.
Wow, the comments on that Rob Neyer article are just classic. My favorite:
And somebody else took Dave to task for listing Werth, Victorino, and Jenkins as good fielders, which they are (even when you’re not comparing them to Burrell and Ibanez).
Good lord is Hickey RBI-obsessed. Fortunately by all evidence so far Zduriencik knows enough to look for talented hitters, not RBIs.
Good luck to Raul, I will miss chanting his name while he was at the plate. Raaaaaauuuulllllllll! and as bad as he was, at least he wasn’t Al “the butcher” Martin who made even the most routine catch of a flyball look like it should have been on webgems.